chance of bowl: 13.6%
Looking through the roster and seeing a lack of seniors it is quite amazing to go back and look at how bad the "20th ranked" 2010 class turned out to be for the school, and why this team is so young. Yes there is always attrition and if 60-70% of your recruits make it to senior day you should be happy but this was an epic tire fire.
Here is a list of guys who essentially are on the side of milk cartons (15 names): Cullen Christian, Marvin Robinson, Ken Wilkins, Carvin Johnson, Conelius Jones (edit), Antonio Kinard, Ricardo Miller, Christian Pace, Jerald Robinson, Davion Rogers, Terrence Talbot, Terry Talbot, Austin White, DJ Williamson, Ray Vinopal.
Add the infamous Demar Dorsey to that list although I am not sure he is now considered an official recruit.
Only real contributors - Devin, JMFR, Richard Ash, Courtney Avery, Jibreel Black, Dileo, Hagerup (err), Jeremy Jackson, and sorta kinda Furman. Stephen Hopkins did pitch in a for a while. I count 5 front line contributors .... if you are generous and include Ash, then 6 out of 27 players. EDIT: Jordan Paskorz also back line contributor. I don't have much to contribute to that in any form of analysis other than to say something about a bare cupboard and point to this as a reason so many young guys have had to play the past 2 years. [original post incorrectly had Gallon in 2010, was a 2009 recruit]
Rivals is my favorite recruiting system. Not my favorite site, and not my favorite rankings (ESPN is winning that title this year), but my favorite system. In addition to stars, they have a relatively simple system for ranking recruits:
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.
6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect
6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team
5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player
4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
A 6.1 player is basically top 35; 6.0 = 35-85; 5.9 = 85-160; 5.8 = 160-300.
To put it in NFL terms, a 6.1 is a 1st or early 2nd-round NFL draft pick. A 6.0 is a 2nd-3rd rounder. A 5.9 is a middle-round pick. A 5.8 is a late round or undrafted FA type. A 5.7 is a player with fringe NFL potential, a 5.6 is an NFL longshot, a 5.5 isn't going to make it. 5.4 and below are guys that are unlikely to see snaps at U-M.
Keep in mind that the standard at Michigan is high. Jeff Backus keeps a picture of a Michigan huddle on his wall. Why? Because everyone in that huddle would go on to play in the NFL. While that's not typical, the majority of our starters on both sides of the ball should at least find themselves on NFL rosters for a season or two.
That said, I have taken the Rivals Rankings and re-ranked our players according to my current expectations. This is based on the evidence I have, which is obviously flimsy for the guys that haven't played yet. It's a combination of what I've seen on the field, practice buzz, and my gut. Using Derrick Green as an example, I don't think we've seen or heard anything at this point that would suggest he is a 1st-round NFL pick (PLEASE remember that I haven't seen him play an actual down of college football yet). The flipside is that Dymonte Thomas is already showing signs of an impact player, justifying his 5.9 ranking, while Gardner appears on his way to being a solid early-round NFL draft choice.
I have ONLY ranked the players I believe are likely to contribute this season.
|James Ross III||WLB||5.8||5.9|
No, I'm not going to explain the rankings one-by-one. What I will say is that I believe our average needs to be closer to 5.83 before we are considered "elite."
Also note that the rankings should be slightly inflated. Why? Because these are the guys that are projected to contribute to our team this season. They have gone from recruits to players, and have either demonstrated performance on the field or generated significant buzz.
You'll also notice that higher-ranked players are likely to see rankings revised downward. This is part common sense, part timing: a top-ranked player has nowhere to go but down and most of our higher-ranked players are young and not yet fully-developed.
Finally, you'll notice a few grades below 5.7 in the re-rank. If we are to be an elite team, we should not have any (other than kickers) players below 5.7 pushing for playing time.
Here are the rankings, with my projected starters only:
|James Ross III||LB||5.8||5.9|
This includes a slot WR, nickel CB, KR, and extra LB (JMFR). If we're looking to be a dominant team, I think we need an average closer to 5.88.
I will revisit these rankings after the season, and perhaps once in the middle.
Previously I did the offense, now for the scarier side of the ball. I don’t recommend reading for at least 30 minutes after eating a meal.
To repeat from the earlier post, this Diary is intended to be a “state of the roster” type of summary heading into the final recruiting stretch. It is meant to be a diversion from coaching rumors, general recruiting chatter, or Miss St. preview posts. Obviously all bets are off if a coaching change is made and this summary will change (hopefully for the better) when signing day rolls around. In general, I thought this would generate some good discussion and that’s what this website is all about. Refer to Brian’s Depth Chart By Classfor a list of the relevant players.
Defensive Tackle – C+
This grade avoids being lower thanks to Mike Martin’s awesomeness. He’s by far the best player on the defensive side of the ball and without him this grade would have been an F. The problem is that there are so few people behind him. If Michigan wanted to run a 4-3 they would slide VanBergen over to DT rather than trust the position to anyone else on the depth chart behind Martin. Maybe Washington will turn out to be more than goal-life beef, maybe Ash lives up to some practice hype that’s been out there, or maybe Talbott surpasses low expectations. But there is almost no depth and no one projects as anything close to all-big ten. Since losing two recruits on signing day a couple of years ago and having Will Campbell prove ESPN to be right about his talents, this position has been a horror show. This is the #1 priority in recruiting for years to come.
Defensive End – B-
Craig Roh still projects as an above average Big Ten player once he’s in his natural position and RVB is steady at the other spot (even if I’d rather see him in the middle of a 4-3 base defense). Jibreel Black played a lot as a true-freshman and showed flashes of talent – he could match Roh’s potential. Paskorz, Wilkins, Rock, and Beyer provide adequate depth without much star potential. There is enough talent and depth here to be solid but unspectacular – hence the grade.
Linebacker – C
Sigh…..how long has it been since we had optimism with this position? Demens looks like he will be a solid two-year starter with a chance to be above average. But who else will start? The roster is a weird collection of over-sized safeties and undersized linebackers. Mike Jones and Brandon Herron have played but are still unknowns. Fitzgerald and Leach have never shown the ability to play more than special teams. Isiah Bell and Jake Ryan seem like MLB material, but have been invisible to practice buzz. Kellen Jones and Desmond Morgan are very solid signings in this recruiting class but hopefully get a year of seasoning. I expect Cam Gordon to essentially be a linebacker for this defense and don’t be surprised to see Thomas Gordon, Marvin Robinson, Josh Furman, or even Carvin Johnson play some too. Depth is not an issue – talent and finding the right role for people are the issue.
Corner – C+
Are you surprised this isn’t a lower grade? After a horrific series of events led to this position being a black hole for too long (8 players that would have had eligibility were unable to contribute in 2010 for various reasons), there is light at the end of the tunnel. Floyd was erratic but returns as a veteran. Avery saw extensive time long before he should have and that should help him develop into a solid starter. Talbott got some time and could be a solid bench player. (I’m considering Christian a Free Safety.) Troy Woolfolk’s position for 2011 is unknown, but if it is corner he’ll bring valuable experience to let the young guys develop. The current recruiting class may be “short” on stars but has a lot of depth to bolster the biggest weakness on the D.
Strong Safety – C+
Kovacs is the sort of guy you love having on your team, but not really as a 4-year starter. None the less, he’ll be his reliable but limited self next year. Expect a push from Carvin Johnson or possibly Marvin Robinson or Josh Furman if they stick at this position. Finding the right balance between brains and brawn at this position will be critical, and signing a blue-chip recruit would be spectacular.
Free Safety – D
The good news is that the people on the roster are young and have some experience. The bad news is that there’s almost zero depth, the players on the roster have obvious limitations, and it isn’t clear if help is on the way. I suppose Vinopal is your default starter with Cullen Christian the likely back-up. I would like to see Woolfolk shore up this position for a year, but he might play corner instead. Carvin Johnson might convert to this position, but he seems better suited for Strong Safety. I fully expect one of the incoming recruits to move to this position, probably Brown or Crawford. There is flexibility with some of these players, but this is a position where you want a savvy veteran who knows the position.
Punter – B
Hagerup had some freshman moments, but overall was reliable when rushed into service. Expect him only to improve and perhaps even challenge some of the Space Emperor’s milestones….okay, maybe not – but he’ll be fine.
Punt Returner – D
As with the Kick Return position, there should be plenty of viable candidates who could do well but the results don’t prove that out. Gallon was a mess for much of the year, Hemmingway offers little upside and is too injury prone, and hardly anyone else got a chance. Expect Drew Dileo to get the first chance and he might prove to be valuable.
A note on scheme for a moment….
I have no qualifications that let me comment intelligently on scheme or tactics, but I have common sense and 25 years of watching this team. I think the 3-3-5 is a way to use scheme to confuse the offense when it is run correctly. In that way it can help offset a lack of talent – but it requires the players to know it and run it well. Given that Michigan’s D combines a lack of top talent with a dose of inexperience and a dash of lack-of-depth, this is not a recipe for success as we’ve seen. I would much rather stick to a simple defense and run it well – living with the consequences.
For that reason I would like to see a 4-3 base defense with Black-RVB-Martin-Roh as the line. That seems to be a solid starting unit with a decent number of back-ups. Demens and company can sort out the linebackers. I would put Floyd and Avery at corner (and let the entire depth chart fight it out for those two starting spots), Kovacs at strong safety if he can hold off Johnson and Robinson, and then let Woolfolk be the free safety.
This Diary is intended to be a “state of the roster”-type of summary heading into the final recruiting stretch. It is meant to be a diversion from coaching rumors, general recruiting chatter, or Miss St. preview posts. Obviously all bets are off if a coaching change is made and this summary will change (hopefully for the better) when signing day rolls around. In general, I thought this would generate some good discussion and that’s what this website is all about. Refer to Brian’s Depth Chart By Class for a list of the relevant players.
Offense goes first, defense wil come later.
Quarterback – A+
That’s right, I went there. I struggle to see how this position could be any better. Denard will be a Heisman candidate for the next two years, Tate has proven to be a very good backup quarterback and spot starter, and Devin will now be a freshman next year and one of the highest ranked dual-threat talents of the past three recruiting classes. I guess it would be nice to have a developmental prospect, but fourth string QBs grow on trees.
Running Back – B-
If Dee Hart stays in this class and meets his full potential maybe this grade is harsh. They certainly have depth and variety, which has not always been the case. But until someone steps forward as a homerun back and this group proves they can stay healthy, a higher grade is not warranted.
Outside Wide Receiver – B
Stonum, Hemmingway, and Odoms made for a very above average group of starters this year and all of them have had great games and will be among the best group of outside receivers in the conference for 2011. But they have all had injury issues and inconsistency issues so there isn’t a star here….yet. More concerning is the depth behind the veterans. Jackson and Stokes have played, but mostly on running downs. Robinson, Williamson, and Miller will all have tons of eligibility but are unknown quantities. Another recruit in the 2011 class would be nice.
Slot Receiver – A-
Roy Roundtree is a handful of drops away from being the next wearer of the #1 jersey [Ed-M: because dropsies stopped previous #1s?] and a future star. Kelvin Grady went from a liability to having some of the best hands on the team. Gallon and Robinson provide valuable depth. And Justice Hayes could be a future star at this position.
Tight End – C+
This is perhaps a little harsh because of the role they play in the offense. Webb has proven to be a dynamic blocker and Koger has the potential to be a very good receiver. The problem is that there is no one on the depth chart besides Brandon Moore. You may see Ricardo Miller take on the Koger role and it is expected that there will be another recruit in the 2011 class. But with fullbacks being walk-ons and the jumbo package making some valuable appearances in the playbook this year we’ll need to address this position in the next couple of recruiting classes.
Offensive Line – B+
Two starters will depart after this year and you have to give them credit for their development into solid performers this season. But without knocking their ability, they should be easily replaced. Mark Huyge has already been a starter and can step in right away with Schofield pushing for playing time. Schilling will be missed, but Barnum looks to be a solid replacement with Campbell and Mealer (plus the other centers) providing depth. Lewan and Omameh are still young and future NFL draft picks. Molk will be a senior but now has several viable back-ups in waiting. Signing another guard in this class with a lot of potential would push this to an A- for sure. Another star tackle is needed in the 2012 recruiting class.
Kicker – F
This is the biggest liability on the entire team now that there is at least depth (if not experience or talent) in the secondary. Gibbons looks like a mess with his form and results. Broekhuizen has better form but still lousy results. They don’t even have someone who can just kick it deep for kick-offs! Justin Meram from the soccer team is still wishful thinking for the time being since he has no proven track record and may go pro in his natural sport. I’m one who thinks a scholarship must go to a kicker in this class.
Kick Returner – C
This is a maddening position to grade. With all of the skill players on the roster you would think that this is a strength, but unless Stonum is the one taking the kicks there has been very little in the way of positive performance. Gallon, Robinson, and Odoms were highly underwhelming. Perhaps Dileo, Toussaint, Avery, or another young player could improve this. As great as Stonum is in this spot, his injury shows why you need to find someone else.
Shawn Conway will not be attending U of M next fall. Instead he will be attending a JUCO in order to get in. From his comments on the situation he remains committed to us and very much desires to eventually be a Wolverine. I like Ricardo Miller and Jerald Robinson but man, seemingly missing out on Sammy Watkins and not having Conway in 2011 really sucks.
Edit/ per TomVH's twitter:
Rivals has a teaser headline stating Wayne Lyons has a Shoelace Connection.
Anyone know what this is in reference to?