that makes one of us
Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. If my line could be this accurate every game, I should move into Vegas. I posted PSU at +25 and Michigan at -4 for the season, matching the 29 point spread PSU finished with.
Based purely on starting field position, PSU held an expected 32 to 24 advantage for the game. On to the details and, as always, explanation here.
Run offense vs PSU
The numbers reflect more of the first half, than the second. Michigan finished up with a +10 rating for the game. Unadjusted, it was a +6, boosted by coming against a solid run defense. Of the +10, the first quarter came in as a +8, with the rest of the game being generally average. Brandon Minor finished the game at +7, Threet scored a +3, mostly on the strength of his 14 yard run on 3rd and 3.
Pass offense vs PSU
Michigan finished the game -10, which would have been a -12 unadjusted. Again the second half was a disaster, with only 1 play warranting a positive value before garbage time. The QBs posted matching -5's for the game passing.
Run defense vs PSU
Evan Royster had himself a game. A solid +11, second only to Lesean McCoy of Pitt for BCS conference running backs last week. Overall, the Nittany Lions scored a +8, which was pulled down by the early turnover. Based on PSU's past performance on the ground, the Wolverine rush defense managed to pull off a very unsatisfying +1 for the day.
Pass defense vs PSU
PSU yielded a solid but not spectacular +5 for the game, with the Michigan pass defense scoring a +4, the late screen TD was not included in the totals, coming during garbage time.
Here are the final game ratings for each side:
Switching too a little different format. Going to take go along the lines of Brian does in his main preview but rather than use measly yards, I am going to use my adjusted expected value system. Explanation Here.
My line: Penn State is +25 on the year, Michigan is -4. Not a good combination.
Run Offense vs PSU
Rush numbers don't swing as wide as passing numbers.
Penn State averages +3 for the year, which is good for 25th in the country. Here's the game by game breakdown.
Rush - Game+
Sacks are included in the pass stats, and garbage time is excluded.
Pass Offense vs PSU
Penn State averages +5 for the year, which is good for 26th in the country. Because so many of there games have been blowouts and garbage time is excluded here, their play count is the lowest in the country for a BCS conference school. On a per play basis, the Nittany Lions rank 14th in the country. Here's the game by game breakdown.
Pass - Game+
Overall its the 22nd rated defense vs the 113th rated offense.
Run Defense vs PSU
Penn State is at +5 for the year, an impressive 5th in the country.
Rush - Game+
Pass Defense vs PSU
Penn State is at their usual +5 for the year, 18th in the country. Their lack of close games comes into play again here, their per play score is good for 9th. Not a negative performance on the season from the PSU passing game:
Pass - Game+
Overall its the 35th rated defense vs the 6th rated offense.
Battle of strength on strength when Michigan punts, battle of weakness on weakness when PSU punts. Kickoffs look like a wash.
Michigan punts, PSU returns: Michigan average of 43.1 yards net. PSU average of 34.9 yards net.
PSU punts, Michigan returns: PSU average of 35.3 yards net. Michigan average of 39.3 yards net.
Michigan kicks off, PSU returns: PSU average start at 29, Michigan average opp start at 29.
PSU kicks off, Michigan returns: Michigan average start at 29, PSU average opp start at 27.
PSU placekicking is #9 in the country, yielding about an extra point/game.
Not a lot of measurements for intangibles, but PSU's gains on field position have been strong, #20 in the country, worth a FG a game, while Michigan sits at #92, costing them a a couple points a game.
Both teams have been solid in the penalty department with Michigan holding a slight lead.
PSU has scored 91% of possible points in the red zone and allowed 80%.
Michigan has scored 76% of possible points while allowing 68%.