Diaries

Today's front page post about the future off the basketball team, combined with the general optimism surrounding the program, has inspired me to go back and compare this year's recruiting class to the 2012 one. That 2012 class is easily the best in recent Michigan mens basketball history so the comparison is not in the "how succesful will the 2018 class be compared to the 2012 class" but more just to compare the recruiting rankings and how the recruits fit into Beilein's system.

Before I look at the 2012 and 2018 classes, I wanted to remind everyone of the classes in between. For simplicity's sake, all recruiting info (individual player ratings, stars and class rankings) will be pulled from 247 using their composite rankings.

2013: Overall Class Rank - 14, B1G Class Rank - 3, AVG Rating - .9755

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Zak Irvin	SG	4	.9876	28	1 (IN)
Derrick Walton Jr.	PG	4	.9833	45	2 (MI)
Mark Donnal	PF	4	.9579	86	3 (OH)
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2014: Overall Class Rank - 30, B1G Class Rank - 4, AVG Rating -.8818

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Kam Chatman	SF	4	.9896	27	1 (OR)
DJ Wilson	SF	4	.9212	123	14 (CA)
Ricky Doyle	PF	3	.8675	209	21 (FL)
Aubrey Dawkins	SG	3	.8218	396	8 (NH)
MAAR	SG	3	.8094	434	12 (PA)

2015: Overall Class Rank - 107, B1G Class Rank - 14, AVG Rating -.9430

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Moritz Wagner	PF	4	.9273	119	1 (NY?)
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2016: Overall Class Rank - 31, B1G Class Rank - 6, AVG Rating -.9049

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Zavier Simpson	PG	4	.9748	67	7 (OH)
Jon Teske	C	3	.9047	142	10 (OH)
Austin Davis	C	3	.8803	177	3 (MI)
Ibi Watson	SG	3	.8600	239	15 (OH)
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2017: Overall Class Rank - 43, B1G Class Rank - 6, AVG Rating -.9176

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Jordan Poole	SG	4	.9506	92	7 (IN)
Isaiah Livers	PF	4	.9215	132	2 (MI)
Eli Brooks	PG	3	.8807	202	10 (PA)
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Some notes on these classes:

• Position is position listed on their 247 recruiting profile, not the position they necessarily played at Michigan.
• Austin Hatch and Brent Hibbits were both excluded from the tables (Hatch for medical reasons, Hibbits because he was never a scholarship player).
• Hibbits was listed in the same class as Wagner but without any rankings or info. Despite Wagner having a rating of .9273 (and being listed as playing in Berlin, NY), the class has an average rating of .9430, which makes no sense.
• The best recruiting class by far was the 2013 class with Irvin, Walton and Donnal, all of which were 4 stars. It was the 14th best class in the country that year per 247.
• The worst class was the 2014 class, with an average rating of .8818. This fits with what we now know from that class, with DJ and MAAR being the only contributors and MAAR being the only player to stay for 4 years. The fact that the class had 5 players pushed the class to 30th in the nation per 247, which actually puts it second highest of these classes.
• The highest rated recruit of these players was Kam Chatman in 2014 (lol), with a national ranking of 27 and composite grade of .9896. He just barely beat out Zak Irvin who was 28th and had a grade of .9876.
• The lowest rated recruit was MAAR, also part of that 2014 class, with a .8034 composite grade and 434 national ranking.. He beat out fellow 2014 recruit Aubrey Dawkins who had a composite grade of .8218 and ranking of 396.

Now the 2012 and 2018 classes:

2012: Overall Class Rank - 8, B1G Class Rank - 2, AVG Rating -.9373

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
GR3	SF	5	.9934	17	1 (IN)
Mitch McGary	PF	4	.9897	28	3 (NH)
Nik Stauskas	SG	4	.9369	110	5 (MA)
Spike Albrecht	PG	3	.8556	221	9 (MA)
Caris Levert	SG	3	.8444	239	5 (OH)

2018: Overall Class Rank - 9, B1G Class Rank - 1, AVG Rating -.9434

Name	Position	Recruiting Stars	Composite Grade	National Ranking	State Ranking
Ignas Brazdeikis	SF	4	.9867	34	1 (ON)
Brandon Johns	PF	4	.9718	69 (nice)	2 (MI)
David Dejulius	PG	3	.9331	132	5 (MI)
Colin Castleton	PF	3	.9330	133	14 (FL)
Adrien Nunez	SG	3	.8924	206	2 (CT)

Some comparisons between the two classes:

• Both classes are top 10 nationally and the 2018 class is currently 1st in the B1G (although as more unsigned top propsects commit, both those rankings will drop).
• The 2018 class has a higher average ranting per player (.9434 vs .9373), which is the second highest of any of these classes behind the 2013 class.
• Both classes consist of 5 players. Unlike the 2014 class which also consisted of 5 players, both the 2012 and 2018 classes consist of 5 player classes where each player fits a unique position on a Beilein team.
  • PG - Albrecht vs Dejulius
  • SG - Levert/Stauskas vs Nunez
  • SF - Levert/Stauskas vs Brazdeikis
  • PF - GR3 vs Johns
  • C - McGary vs Castleton
  • This is not saying the play style of each player matches up directly (ie Castleton is not the same player as McGary, he's a stretch big compared to McGary being a post player), but just where they fit on the floor.
• The 2012 class had a better top of the class (McGary and GR3 were more highly regarded than any of the 2018 guys), but the depth of the 2018 class is much better. Iggy and Johns are the only 4 stars but Dejulius and Castleton are 3 and 4 spots away respectively from being 4 stars, and Nunez is a solid mid tier 3 star compared to Albrecht and Levert being bottom tier 3 stars. This is what pulls the average 2018 rating above the average 2012 rating.

Overall the 2018 class should be a great class and another reason to be excited about the future of Michigan basketball. However this should also serve as a reminder that college athletes are fickel beasts and recruiting rankings pretty much mean nothing once the kids get to campus.

The highest rated recruit for Michigan between 2013 and 2017 (Chatman) was arguably the worst recruit in that time, while the lowest rated guy (MAAR) has been arguably the most consistent player in that time. Even in the 2012 class the lowest rated guy (Levert) has had a better career than either of the top 2 guys in that class. So while expectations for the future should be high, keep in mind that struggles and busts may/will occur and are to be expected.

No one expected this.  Georgia finished the 2016 season 8-5.  Their offense would end the season ranked 93rd in S&P+, finishing no higher than 80th in any of the six categories.  Their defense was far better -- 34th in S&P+ -- but still a far cry from elite.  How did an 8-5 team that lost to four unranked teams (Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech)--and one bad ranked team (Florida)--catapult themselves into an SEC Championship and, ultimately, the CFP Championship game?  (scroll to bottom for TL;DR summary)

There are several answers to that question, and there had to be.  Perhaps it's easier to start with what did not change: the staff.  Smart brought back a nearly identical staff, only changing his defensive line coach (the one holdover from the Richt staff).

Freshman wunderkind Jacob Eason did not return

Lots of statniks will tell you that a returning QB is crucial to success.  Jacob Eason was said to be one of the keys to Georgia taking a big step forward on offense in 2017.  While has freshman campaign certainly was not a wild success, a 2:1 TD:INT ratio and a 120 rating had Georgia fans and coaches salivating about what he might be able to do in year two.

From DawgNation:

Quarterback Jacob Eason is now entering his second year, which will help. Last year not only was he a freshman, but he was learning a new offense, the pro-style scheme and drop-backs being different from the shotgun and spread-oriented offense he played in high school. That led to the offense being slower than desired last year, partly out of Eason needing to get the call right, and partly the coaches wanting to manage him and those calls. “The training wheels are off this year,” Wims said. “And they’re giving him the ability to make checks. They’re giving him the ability to be a veteran, second-year quarterback.”

This was the "quick fix" the offense needed--an experienced QB.  Some other minor tweaks were discussed in the same article, but this was largely the same offense, and even a lot of the same personnel: Chubb and Michel returned almost all of the rushing production, and five of the six top receivers returned.

And then Jacob Eason got hurt on the third series of the season.

So...same offense, same staff, mostly the same players.  Now with a true freshman QB.  How did it go from #93 to #11 in S&P+?  From 24.5 PPG (#102) to 35.4 PPG (#20) in scoring?  You won't like the answer...

"I remember, in my disappointment, I just don’t think we blocked really well the whole first year at Georgia," Chaney said. "And you say, 'What do you want to change?' People think change is putting a wideout over there and a tight end over here. Hell, I want to block better. I just wanted to block better. I sit here a year later and if you asked me, 'What’s the difference from last year to this year?' We blocked better." "You can’t look at our success and say, 'Oh, Chaney went to the RPO. The dumbass didn’t do it a year ago, now he is,'" Chaney said, drawing laughs. "I wish it were that easy. Sorry, I didn’t mean to ruin your article."

But yeah, let's talk about the RPOs for a moment, because there is more to that than Chaney lets on.  The article rightly focuses on the mentality change and the desire for Georgia to assert themselves on the ground, but it does ignore that the Georgia offense did make a pretty significant change in moving almost entirely to a shotgun offense.

See, Georgia is a "manball" team that tried to hire Dan Enos.  Their offense is predicated on a smashmouth style that grinds down opponents with superior OL and RB play, putting Georgia in a position to control the game and win the 4th quarter.  And in 2017, they were highly successful, posting 3,876 rushing yards along with 42 TDs at a 5.79 YPC clip.  Having guys like Michel and Chubb in your backfield helps, but in 2016 virtually the same guys produced 2,486 yards at 4.66 YPC, and only 18 TDs.

Despite a bad OL in 2016 and losing two starters (sound familiar?), the 2017 OL was dominant, ending the season 12th in adjusted line yards and 9th in opportunity rate.  Those numbers were good enough to weather a 109th ranking in sack rate.

Yes, it turns out that Jake Fromm was far better than anyone could have imagined.  But let's not forget that Eason was the starting QB, suggesting that he won the job.  So perhaps it wasn't Fromm's talent, but his youth, that forced Georgia to change their offense into an offense, that, well, works.

Fromm's arrival meant simplification.  It meant more shotgun, more spread, and even more running.  So while the addition of RPOs was ballyhooed as the "key" change to the offense, the reality was that a simpler version was required in order for Fromm to even operate the unit.  Shotgun sets with more receivers spreads the defense out, making it harder to disguise coverages and blitzes, simplifying reads, footwork, and even hand-offs for the QB.    Georgia is still a power, pro-style offense, but Fromm spent nearly all of his snaps in the pistol or shotgun, and not becuase of a "zone read" or QB run philosophy.  The goal was to run a simple enough offense for a true freshman to make the most of the available talent.

Georgia's passing attack ranked #106 in YPG, but Fromm's 160.09 rating was good for 8th in the country.  Meanwhile--out of shotgun sets running power football--the running game flourished into the #2 rushing attack in the SEC and #7 in rushing S&P+.

Overall, Georgia is one of only four teams to be in the top seven in all six S&P+ categories, demonstrating the ability of their offense to find efficiency in the passing and running game.

Summary and Conclusions

• Georgia did NOT make offensive staff changes, and still went from a five-loss, incompetent offense to one of the best in college football
• Georgia did NOT change offensive philosophy--they are still a pro-style outfit focused on a power running game.
• Georgia did NOT change much of their skill position personnel.
• Georgia had a true freshman QB and two new OL.
• Georgia did change to a more simplified, shotgun-oriented offense, increasing their efficiency in both the running and passing game.
• The biggest difference in the success of the offense was improvement and emphasis in blocking.

Simplification, a clear identity, and repetition of base concepts...sounds like a recipe for a successful college offense, and maybe, just maybe, Michigan can make a Georgia-like leap next season.

Guess who’s back, back again… [Bryan Fuller]

OFFENSE

 

	Corsi	House	Possession %
First Period	12	4	46%
Second Period	20	7	59%
Third Period	13	6	50%
Overtime	n/a	n/a	n/a
TOTAL	45	17	52%

Analysis: Michigan did not have a fantastic offensive game from a volume standpoint, but they did create a lot of good scoring opportunities from the house area– especially the low slot. Having Quinn Hughes available really does add an extra dimension to the offense. There were multiple times that he took the puck end-to-end or just skated circles around the offensive zone looking for nooks and crannies to drop the puck. Once again, though, regardless of what Michigan was able to create, Cale Morris was up to the task. The only goal came on a rapid-fire rebound for Josh Norris after Hughes got deep in the house and forced a reactive save. Overall, it was an encouraging output against a good defense and an elite goalie. Soon, though, they’re going to have to find the back of the net.

I don’t have a chart for this, yet –or a great place to add this- but I counted Michigan getting three odd-man rushes on offense. They had a 2v1 and a couple of 3v2s. The Wolverines generated one good shot and the puck hopped Hughes’ stick, otherwise he would have had an open look.

[After THE JUMP: cleaning (up shots from the) house]

Previously:

December 2007

January 1 - Tuesday

Michigan beats Florida 41-35 in the Citrus Bowl. Wolverine Historian highlights part 1. Part 2.

Brian is surprised by the outcome, but happy.  

January 2 - Wednesday

Unverified Voracity is Just a Bunch of Video Embeds. Lots of Citrus Bowl videos. Also a UFR will be coming since ‘M’ was basically in a passing spread.

A roundup of numerous rumors regarding current commits, class size, possible transfers, and the coaching staff. The position of DC is still open, and Jeff Casteel is a strong possibility. Brian refutes the idea that the 3-3-5 wouldn’t work in the Big 10.

January 3 - Thursday

Reports that Mallett is transferring. However, this means that Terrelle Pryor will likely come to ‘M’.

Florida Game Column...also covering WVU beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Rich Rodriguez put that team together, and though he was absent the framework of that team's offense and defense were his responsibility. That team's offensive and defensive coordinators will be Michigan's offensive and defensive coordinators. That team's recruiting coordinator will be Michigan's recruiting coordinator. And that team was a national-championship-caliber one cobbled together from quarterbacks LSU wanted as a wide receiver and terror-beast fullbacks from Division III schools in Wisconsin.

This might have been a good hire.

General Offseason Plan.

• Basketball will not have a lot of effort dumped into it. They're really brutal this season and I'm just not that into college basketball. Hideous refereeing, that kiddie three-point line, and games against Northwestern are detraction enough when your team is better than the Wildcats. When it's debatable? Not so much.

•  

January 4 - Friday

Unverified Voracity Knits. Manningham says he is coming back. Mallet is still uncertain.

Now it is sounding more and more certain that Mallett is gone. The rumors are centering on him going to UCLA.

A breakdown of the probable assistants. At this point, it looks like Casteel will probably come.

January 5 - Saturday

More on assistants. Casteel and Tony Dews are the biggest question marks. If not Casteel, Wake Forest DC Dean Hood is a possible alternative.

Unverified Voracity Says Hello, Goodbye, Hello. Hello NJ S Brandon Smith. Jeff Casteel and Tony Dews are staying at WVU. Bruce Tall is on the fence. Maybe Erik Campbell and Steve Stripling stay.

January 7 - Monday

More assistant updates. Now Dews and Tall are both coming to ‘M’. DC is still a mystery.

Manningham is 90% likely to stay.

Dews and Tall to ‘M’ is official per WVU.

January 8 - Tuesday

Jay Hopson is rumored to be the next DC.

Details to voters for the final blogpoll vote.

Rodriguez says Mallett, Arrington, and Manningham are all likely gone.

January 9 - Wednesday

Exeunt Unverified Voracity. Rodriguez confirms those departures, and Hopson is confirmed as a staff member though not necessarily DC. Also, it looks like BTN and Comcast have come to a settlement.

January 10 - Thursday

WVU is reportedly hiring Florida DB coach Doc Holliday, so maybe Casteel is still in play? Turns out not.

Recruiting Board Update. Lots of Terrelle Pryor videos, but other options will be explored.

Expect at least a couple sleeper types and possibly a JUCO or two. (I've been told that Rodriguez is talking with the admissions department about a couple of JUCO quarterbacks.) I also expect Rodriguez to pursue already-committed recruits in the Midwest corridor he picked up most of his Mountaineers in: meh dual-threat QB Dominick Britt, a Cinci commit, virtually anyone in the Pittsburgh area he thinks can help out, and IN QB Marqueis Gray, who committed to freakin' Minnesota at the AA game.

Year End Blogpoll.

Hoke for DC rumor, but not that Hoke. Maybe Jon Hoke, but this is debunked even before the end of the post.

January 11- Friday

Unverified Voracity Casts Stones. Brian says he is remiss to not mention the Mealer situation earlier. An update and address for gifts is included.

Rodriguez will be playing Score-o at the hockey game tonight.

Scott Shafer will be the next DC. He has been hired away from Jim Harbaugh at Stanford. This sounds familiar with Harbaugh’s hiring of Don Brown.

[New Stanford coach Jim] Harbaugh had never spoken to Scott Shafer when he pulled up last year's NCAA statistics on the Web. But he knew what he was looking for. Harbaugh wanted to lure a coordinator from one of the top-rated defenses.

There, at No. 11, was Harbaugh's man.

Last year, Shafer's defense at Western Michigan was ranked 11th overall, sixth against the run and first in sacks and interceptions.

Shafer says his defense will be multiple. No 3-3-5.

Press conference audio for Rodriguez and Shafer.

January 14 - Monday

Monday Recruitin’. TX WR Terrence Robinson and FL QB Justin Feagin have been added to the board.

Video of Rodriguez on the ice at the hockey game. Brian is excited about the systematic shift in the coaching staff.

Hello OH LB Taylor Hill.

January 15 - Tuesday

Goodbye Mario Manningham.

Unverified Voracity is a Little Girl because Mike Barwis is amazing.

New Rodriguez-related MGoShirts!

The first Rodriguez controversy after coming to ‘M’. He is accused of shredding lots of documents in his WVU office, including personnel files for each player.

Terrance Taylor is planning to come back. Tim Jamieson is the last possible early entry.

Raise your hopes for Terrelle Pryor. He has moved up his planned visit to this weekend.

January 16 - Wednesday

BHGP wrote a piece for comedy that attacked Rodriguez and MGoBlog, but Brian took it seriously. Lots for vitriol.

Reaction and updates to the shredding incident. Also, there might have been improper phone calls to recruits.

Brian realizes that BHGP was joking. Lots of embarrassment.

January 17 - Thursday

More shredding reaction, this time from Rodriguez.

Mailbag. Is it possible that Rodriguez’s first year will be a really bad transition year like Beilein’s first year?

Unverified Voracity Goes eeeee Again. Here is Tom Lemming’s ranking of Michigan’s recruits. Yikes…

• #11 Sam McGuffie(!)

• #45 Brandon Smith

• #49 Boubacar Cissoko

• #59 Dann O'Neill

• #80 Daryl Stonum

• #93 Brandon Moore

January 18 - Friday

Several links to responses from Rodriguez.

2008 Recruiting Board. The names are updated, but most of the content isn’t.

There is great controversy about why Rodriguez made 112 calls to a tiny WV town. Turns out those were calls to check his voicemail.

Brian asked those attending the basketball game to encourage Pryor, but not to forget about the other recruits.

January 19 - Saturday

Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla will not be returning.

January 21 - Monday

Now Calvin Magee is making accusations back at WVU, insinuating that he wasn’t considered for the head coaching job because of his race.

Monday Recruitin’ says that Pryor was on campus and said it was “cool”. Allegedly, he’s already made up his mind but will milk the process for maximum drama.

There are CFB blogger awards coming up.

January 22 - Tuesday

Mailbag with several perspectives on Shafer and less-flattering reviews of Rodriguez.

A short biography on Ted Sarniack, a “friend” of Pryor who happens to own corvettes and a prosperous business in Jeanette, PA. Also, he has been meeting with OSU coaches last week.

Tuesday Recruitin’. Marcus Witherspoon and Christian Wilson are opening up their recruitment. Nick Perry has a top three of ‘M’, USC, and Miami.

January 23 - Wednesday

Now there’s a picture of Pryor with that corvette. Somehow Charlie Batch is involved too.  

Basically, West Virginia is a mess. Brian agrees with Bill Stewart that this all needs to end.

Assumptions going forward: the shredding thing was much ado about precisely nothing, Rodriguez is neither Satan or Carr, and no one should particularly care about the outcome of the WVU-Rodriguez lawsuit. Occasional links might make their way into UV or on the sidebar; from now on this is all sideshow.

January 24 - Thursday

OSU fans are upset that Pryor is considering Michigan and incredulous that there could be a breath of wrong-doing about their program. Probably a good time to recap their recent improprieties.

Thursday Recruitin’ with three interesting names added to the board: FL QB BJ Daniels, FL WR Martavious Odoms, and OH OL Patrick Omameh.

January 25 - Friday

Unverified Voracity is Reminded. Chad Henne has made comments that all the current QBs (Threet and Cone) might be looking to transfer. There is a chance the QB play in 2008 might be bad.

Hockey update. Michigan is #1 in the country and should have the first seed locked down.

January 28 - Monday

Monday Recruitin’ has an update on the remaining prospects on the board:

Probable Commits

• TN CB JT Floyd

• TX WR Terrence Robinson

Decent Shot

• MI DE Nick Perry

• SC WR Jaron Brown

• FL QB Justin Feagin

• FL QB BJ Daniels

• OH RB/WR Michael Shaw

• PA QB Terrelle Pryor

Wildcards

• MS S Charles Mitchell

• FL WR Martavious Odoms

• FL OT Rhonne Sanderson

• OH OT Patrick Omameh

That looks like five or six guys to me.

Unverified Voracity with Throbbing Temple Surprise. Brian tries to figure out how Drew Sharp is still employed.

The Free Press' logic is probably straightforward: I bet he gets a lot of hits on his pieces. Every time he writes a rip job on someone, incensed people post links on the relevant message boards. Despite the 100% guaranteed "don't give this guy attention" response posted two seconds after the initial link, people click and absorb the latest tripe.

January 29 - Tuesday

Quarterback Mailbag. OSU fans pushback against Brian, saying he could damage Pryor’s career by insinuating that he has been involved with anything unethical.

January 30 - Wednesday

Wednesday Recruitin’. Not much going on yet. Marcus Witherspoon is solid now, but JB Fitzgerald is saying nice things about Rutgers.

January 31 - Thursday

Hello SC CB JT Floyd. He had been a Tennessee commit for about a year, but was recruited by Carr and Rodriguez.

Pryor might be pushing off his decision until after signing day. In retrospect of the 2008 season this explanation seems much more plausible:

If he pushes things back it's to visit spread-friendly Oregon, not the act of a guy who's a "lock" anywhere. Unless, as the hardcore tinfoil-hat types have decreed, Pryor is such an OSU lock that he's under orders from Tressel to lead Michigan on until such time as other options like BJ Daniels and Justin Feagin have freaked out and gone elsewhere.

And Michigan has stopped recruiting BJ Daniels. Pryor or bust?

 

Cale Morris must have had his kale, today (James Coller)

OFFENSE

	Corsi	House	Possession %
First Period	18	8	53%
Second Period	17	2	50%
Third Period	26	7	62%
Overtime	n/a	n/a	n/a
TOTAL	61	17	55%

Analysis: Michigan was down two of their top-six forwards tonight, but you couldn’t exactly tell. They were able to control the puck for the last 50+ minutes of the game and create chances all over the ice. Calderone scored the lone even-strength goal of the game on a power move that somehow caught Morris off of his near post, and the puck trickled between him and said post. Notre Dame entered the game with a elite defense and arguably the best goaltending in college hockey and the latter is what saved them. I thought Michigan was able to beat the Irish defense with enough consistency to score multiple goals. However, Cale Morris was just as good as advertised (with the help of one large post) and stole Michigan’s pot of gold in the end. Michigan didn’t overwhelm from the house area, but multiple lines were able to generate chances, and that is definitely something to build on for the Wolverines. 

[After THE JUMP: quantifying a great defensive effort]

As we continue to work through another ugly ending of the season for Michigan football, I thought I would explore an area I think contributes to the anger, disappointment and even ennui for fans.  Trying to find reasonable expectations and the impact of emotional wins.

The expectations game has been debated to death on the site, so I am not going to rehash that in detail.  Instead, I wanted to explore how emotionally satisfying wins help temper expectations and how Michigan's lack of such wins is in a significant way driving so much of the unhappiness.

My argument is basically that winning rivalry games and other high-profile games builds a reserve of goodwill that can be drawn on in tough times thus balancing out some of the fan dissatisfaction as a program has its natural ups and downs.

For example, Ohio State has had some inexplicable losses (Iowa 2017, Michigan State 2015) and some bad ones (Clemson 2016), but they have a National Championship, have dominated Michigan, and have 8 total losses in Urban Meyer's tenure. Michigan State had a disastrous year in 2016, but beat Michigan and Penn State and won their bowl game handily.  This overshadows losses to ND, Northwestern and an embarrassing loss to Ohio State.  Penn State had heartbreaking losses to Ohio State and Michigan State but won 11 games and ended with a win.

We do need to take a few minutes to discuss the expectations that should set the context for our discussion. If you thought Harbaugh was going to step in and bring Michigan to the level of Urban Meyer or Nick Saban in three years, I can't help you.  A cursory glance at the record of the schools for the last ten years would disabuse you of this notion.  Ohio State has been playing in title games and winning conference championships.  In contrast, even before RichRod and Hoke, Michigan lost 3-5 games with regularity.

Since 2000 Ohio State has averaged 2.27 losses a year while Michigan has averaged 4.22. So that should temper expectations.  Ohio State has consistently been better than Michigan for a couple of decades and the last five have been dominant. Urban Meyer has never lost more than 2 games at OSU.

And the program that Harbaugh inherited was not exactly trending upward.  RichRod had three consecutive losing seasons.  Hoke started great (11-2), had a season remarkably like this year (8-5 with a bowl loss to SC), before two losing seasons.  The two coaches prior to Harbaugh were a combined 41-35. 

And going back to Lloyd Carr things were not at Meyer or Saban levels.  Carr’s tenure at Michigan averages out to roughly 9-3. Obviously, the 1997 season stands out as the high point and the ending of the 2006 season as the start of the slide to mediocrity and below.  Heck, Bo’s record is basically 9-2 with a losing record (5-12) in bowl games and no national titles.

This background indicates that in his first three years Harbaugh has brought Michigan back to what it was in the 90s and early 2000s.  I would argue what he hasn’t achieved is some emotionally satisfying wins that would make this accomplishment FEEL better to Michigan fans.  This recap of recent history may seem redundant for fans but bear with me.

2015

Harbaugh’s first season started out with a tough but in many ways understandable loss to Utah but then won five games by a combined score of 160-14.  The next game, however, was the heartbreaking and maddening loss to Michigan State.  The Wolverines won the next four games including a goal line stand to win against Minnesota, an OT win against Indiana, and a sold 28-16 win against Penn State in Happy Valley.  After a blowout loss to Ohio State in the Big House, Michigan thumped Florida 41-7 in the Gator Bowl.

Despite the pattern of painful losses to rivals, Harbaugh first season brought some emotional satisfaction. Ten wins and a blowout bowl win felt like a great start.  Plus, the wins against Minnesota and Indiana provided some excitement and confidence that Michigan could win conference games on the road.

2016

Michigan reeled off 9 straight wins in 2016 and other than the comeback against Colorado and a three missed field goals game against Wisconsin, none of them were particularly close.  You know the story from there.  Painful loss on the road to Iowa, snow game escape against Indiana, and then heartbreaking losses to Ohio State and Florida State.

This is where the emotional damage was done.  A few plays, and one atrocious call, away from a playoff appearance and a great season; potentially one for the ages.  So much promise and potential and yet fans came away with nothing but heartbreak.

The ending was particularly rough not just because it robbed Michigan of a great season, but it erased satisfying wins against not only Colorado and Wisconsin, but also Michigan State and Penn State.  Win one of those three losses and the season feels very different.  To use a cliché, fans were deprived of the type of closure or ending that can make a season feel satisfying even if disappointing.  The end colors the whole season.

2017

This year was the year of youth, particularly on defense.  But an opening win against what was thought to be a solid Florida team seem to portend good things.  The offense struggled but the defense was playing at last year levels despite losing a ton of talent and that was exciting.  A comeback win against Purdue on the road with John O’Korn at QB had fans thinking that the injury to Wilton Speight would not doom the season.

A sloppy loss in a second half monsoon to Michigan State at home drove home the indication that QB and OL play would remain an issue for Michigan; a turnover fest would spell doom.  The feeling of being snake bitten against Michigan State also continued.  The team managed to sneak past Indiana but then were blown out in the second half by a Penn State team who seemed to have it all figured out. 

Michigan went on to thump Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland with a suddenly quite good running game.  And it seemed as if Brandon Peters might be the QB that Michigan so desperately needed.  But a concussion against Wisconsin ended that possibility and the end of season losses followed.  This included a torturous loss to Ohio State at home that included a 14-0 lead at one point.  But the lack of a competent QB, O’Korn had lost whatever competence he once possessed, doomed the Wolverines to yet another loss in The Game.

So even before the bowl game, Michigan fans were struggling to make sense of the team and season. On the one hand, the defense seemed to be beating expectations given their youth and the running game come alive.  The offensive play calling against Ohio State was brilliant even if the QB couldn’t hit an open receiver with the game on the line.  On the other hand, the OL couldn’t protect the QB and seemed to find any stunt an unsolvable mystery.  The WRs were young and failing to help the QB when given the chance.

What the bowl game represented was a chance to reset the expectations and reach a plateau on which to build.  South Carolina was a bad team, worse than their 8-4 record.  This was a chance to prove that Michigan could beat a team with a winning record.  The Big Ten was undefeated in bowl games and had a chance to really stick it to the arrogant SEC.  Michigan was favored to win and most felt comfortable then would do so handily.

When you combine the incredible frustration built up in 2016 from being a few plays, and an atrocious call, from greatness with the continuing losses to our rivals in painful fashion (and the media drumbeat on this point), this was a pool of gasoline waiting for a match.

The last quarter and a half against South Carolina provided not a spark but a flamethrower. 

In the first half Michigan had the ball on the South Carolina 17, 8, and 27 and came away with filed goals each time.  SC had a muffed punt and a fumble but were only down 9-3.  Michigan looked poised to put the game away in the second half, however.  After a 7 play 72-yard TD drive and a SC interception Michigan was driving for a score to put the game out of reach.  Karan Higdon fumbled at the 4, seemed to recover it, only to have the defensive lineman rip it away.  The defense held but a chance to deliver the knockout punch slipped by.  Up 23-3 midway through the 3^rd quarter would have been a great place to be.

The mistakes from there just multiplied.  SC drove for a TD aided by a stupid personal foul penalty.  Then facing 3^rd and 1 at their own 23, Michigan ran the by now infamous play where TE Sean McKeon was lined up as a FB and promptly fumbled the handoff. The very next play was a SC TD and the collapse was on.

• SC overcame a 3rd and 18 and then hit on a 53-yard bomb for their third straight possession with a TD. 
• Trailing for the first time Michigan drove to the five only to have Brandon Peters throw an interception in the endzone. 
• Donovan Peoples-Jones muffs a punt. 
• The defense holds SC to a FG despite having the ball on the 14. Peters throws four straight incompletions and Michigan turns the ball over on downs. 
• Again, defense holds, and SC misses a FG.  2^nd and 2 at the 39 and Peters inexplicably slides instead of running for the first down.  Two plays later, interception to end the game.

The litany is familiar: five(!) turnovers, 23 unanswered points, results in a blown 19-3 lead midway through the third quarter. An embarrassing loss. The only Big Ten team to lose a bowl game (to an SEC team).

I recap all of this, not because you are not aware of what happened but to try to capture the emotional rollercoaster and how it likely destroyed any semblance of balance and rationality many Michigan fans had.

In 2016 Michigan fans were deprived of the opportunity to prove they could be great.  Instead, a season on the precipice of greatness was cruelly snatched away by the thinnest of margins and by a fate that seems intent on punishing Michigan repeatedly.

Having digested this pain, well mostly, Michigan fans simply wanted to believe that a very young team was still competent enough to win games they were supposed to win.  After coming tantalizing close against quality opponents, they wanted to beat a winning team, hold up their part of the Big Ten reputation and slap down the SEC.

Instead, they got an epic collapse.  Players they had hoped were coming into their own in the 13^th game of the season made critical mistakes.  Players they thought were the future, looked unable to handle the spotlight.  And the coaches seemed unable to stop the bleeding or find a way to win.

You can say that Michigan’s history of failing to hold a lead in important games is not relevant to whether Harbaugh knows how to coach or the talent level on the 2018 team.  You can say this year was roughly what was expected.  But the history is there emotionally, and it FEELS important.  Monday made it feel like that history was destiny, that Michigan would forever be the underachieving team. Without a great season to fall back on the future feels like a continuation of heartbreaking losses and mediocrity.

So where do we go from here?  I think you must acknowledge this history and understand that it warps expectations and exaggerates the emotions.  Living in Columbus, I know what winning once in 15 years against OSU feels like.  You can’t have a hyped, media dominating, coach who gets paid ungodly sums, and a coaching staff who are also paid among the highest in the country, and not have expectations grow. And you can’t just wave away the emotions and baggage.

But you also need to realize that Harbaugh is digging out of a hole in terms of recruiting and winning.  And he is doing this at a time when Ohio State is one of the best programs in the country, when Penn State is recruiting at a high level and Michigan State has a coach whose life goal is to beat Michigan even if that is all he accomplishes.  This is an uphill climb. 

It is also important to note, that Michigan isn’t trying to get BACK to the level of Meyer or Saban or Dabo.  It was never at that level.  Those programs have five years of top five recruiting classes under their belt.  They have climbed to the highest level and stayed there. Michigan is trying to build a foundation from which they can reach that level.

That said, 2018 has the feel of a turning point.  Michigan will need to find a way to give fans some significant wins so that they can feel like all the money and hype means something. Another season of losses to rivals and missing the conference championship game will drive the angry voices to newfound heights. 

The good, and bad, news is that Michigan will have plenty of opportunities to get big wins.  As everyone is aware, the schedule is not easy.  Games against Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State on the road and visits from Wisconsin and Penn State.  10 wins, including wins against ND, MSU and/or OSU, would be quite an accomplishment.  It would also give fans enough satisfaction to look to 2019 with excitement. A 4 or 5 loss season would seem to put even Harbaugh on the hot seat.