Diaries

Greetings MGoBlog,

I'm reposting a poem that I shared earlier in the comments of the Lore post by Brian. Justingoblue did me the honor of a points bump so I could post my own content. I'm a little nervous since it's my first post but nothing compared to last night! I chose to make it a diary solely because it seems diary content fills up the whole center column while board topics include the user information on the left. Maybe this will allow the lines enough room not to wrap and will be easier to read. Moderators, feel free to place it somewhere else if needed.

This is the MGoBlog version. I have a slightly different version on my personal sight without the MGo jokes. Inspired by Brian's post: Exponent Time, Ernest Thayer's: Casey at the Bat, the Liveblog and, of course, the team! As I said before, I don't claim to be a professional poet or writer and it needs some revising. But I'm pretty happy with how it turned out so far. Anyway, get to the point man...

Screw Mudville

Last week I took my family on a train trip from Chicago to Seattle for Spring Break.  This trip was planned months ago and as luck would have it our flight from Cleveland got into Chicago early last Saturday and the train didn't leave until 2:15pm CST so I had time to find a bar and watch the Michigan-VCU game.  We selected "Mother Hubbard's" because it was fairly close to Union Station and had good reviews for their food & beer selection and was considered "kid friendly (I had our 8 year old with us) and we had a great time.  I wore my Michigan warm-up jacket and Sugar Bowl hat and both my wife and son had Michigan gear on as well.  We were pretty much the only Michigan fans in there that day based on the cheering (just us mostly) and people were friendly and supportive.

On our way out after the game we passed a big table of MSU fans who had recently arrived to watch their game against Memphis.  They were all dressed in their finest Sparty gear and as we passed their table I said "good luck today guys - keep the B1G domination rolling" and smiled. I was greeted back with "whatthefuck-ever dude" by one guy and some chick giving me the finger.  Everybody at their table laughed at that (the girl flipping me off) and they all basically turned their back on me and said nothing after that.   I was way too happy to let a bunch of MSU fans bring me down so I just left and reminded myself that they truly just hate us in all situations no matter what and left.

On Thursday of this past week we were winding up our stay in Seattle and getting ready to fly home the next morning.  By the way - if you haven't spent time in Seattle I HIGHLY recommend doing so as it's a fantastic city with more to do than we could squeeze in four days but that's another story.  Anyways we decided to go to a Sports Bar near our hotel to watch the OSU & Indiana games and cheer for our fellow B1G schools while enjoying a few beers and some food.  Shortly after the OSU game started I heard a roar coming from the other side of the partition and when I stood up I saw about 200 OSU fans all decked out in scarlet and grey with a giant "Seattle Buckeye Club" banner hung beneath the biggest TV in the place.  I live in Cleveland and somehow I manage to run into the largest collection of Buckeye fans I've ever seen some 2,000 miles away from home.

Well the difference between the Buckeye fans and the MSU fans was pretty stark.  I was dressed basically the same (full Michigan-wear regalia) and other than some good-natured teasing about why I picked THAT bar I was welcomed and to a person, told they were going to root like Hell for us tomorrow.  No snide comments, no smug laughs and certainly no one-finger salutes like I got from the Michigan State fans earlier last week.  And mind you Ohio State was losing most of the game Thursday and Michigan State was killing Memphis when both encounters occurred so I couldn't attribute their reactions to me on the score of the game they were following.  

To me it summed up and confirmed what I've thought about how the respective fan bases view Michigan and our fan base.  OSU dislikes, but respects Michigan and generally roots for us to win unless of course they are playing us.  MSU, on-the-other-hand, dislikes us period and would like nothing better than to see us lose every game no matter what.   Oh, and one last thing.  If you ever get the chance to take a cross-country train trip I would recommend that experience as well.  You will get to see parts of the country you just can't see any other way!

UPDATE: I got about six congradulatory text's from OSU friends of mine here in Ohio after the game yesterday.  A couple of guys were texting me mid-game telling me they were very happy that at least one B1G team showed up large for the tourny. 

[Ed-S: BumP!]

Yes, I have an addiction.  Yes, it's March.  Some choose to build tiny wooden ships in bottles, I intricately break down defensive lineman technique from spring practice videos frame by frame.

Here's the set-up, Pipkins vs. early enrollee Kyle Bosch and a running back who I don't even bother identifying because Pipkins plays this so well that it doesn't matter what the running back does.  Besides, his job is to just pick a side and hit it hard.  

Here, Pipkins has a pretty good stance, wide base, on the balls of his feet, athletic posture and good knee bend.  Low for a big man - that small human he shed this offseason seems to have helped with that some.  

Right after the snap, Pipkins has fired of his left foot and is already bringing his hands, preparing to make contact with Bosch.  At first glance he appears to come out a little high, but as we'll see, his hands, strength and quick feet help him overcome that.  The ideal first step (my understanding) is to be quick, low to the ground, forceful and almost a jab - generate force but reset to be able to drive off again.  

As he makes contact with Bosch, Pipkins has already driven off his right foot as well, generating more power and force into Bosch.  His hands have shot inside very quickly and, as we'll see, will allow him to control Bosch.  

Here, Pipkins has reset both feet and will again drive through them to push Bosch back.  They're pretty much at the line of scrimmage - Bosch has not fired off the ball nor has he moved his feet, except laterally.  I think he should be drive blocking here, but I could be mistaken.  Maybe his job is just to seal off Pipkins.  Regardless, the young buck won't win this battle.  Bosch has his hands in pretty poor position, as Pipkins has him basically by the collar and Bosch would need to hold to really have his left hand be any use to him at this point.  

This time as Pipkins generates more power into Bosch with his legs, he clearly has leverage.  Just compare the angles of their bodies to the ground - Pipkins is firing out and up, Bosch is sitting back down onto his heels.  His feet are again driving for power, and as we'll see in a second, he's about to explode upward with his feet and hips, while also extending his arms and pressing Bosch away from him.  

He's pushing off the ground hard enough that both feet are (minorly) airborn.  His hands are extended, they're even with his eyes.  Ideally they will end up above his eyes when he extends, but this a strong punch he delivers.  Keep in mind this has all happened in a few split seconds as we are just now seeing the ballcarrier enter the frame.

Here, Pipkins has his left arm free with his right fully controlling Bosch, further pushing him back on his heels.  The running back has already decided to go left, so that's where Pipkins will meet him with great haste.  

Contact is made with the ballcarrier at about the line of scrimmage, as Bosch is finally leaving his heels.  He's also managed to grab a little cloth with his lefth and, proving that Pipkins hands were far better on this occasion.  I'll give him credit for trying to finish the block and driving through Pipkins, but it's already over.  

Tackle made - 1 yard gain.  

Here's the video of the whole thing, starts at about 2:28.

If you start a second before you can see how much taller Devin is than Gallon which is both awesome and depressing at the same time.  Let me know if you see any mistakes or glaring oversights or crap I just made up.

I write this in the full realization that it is based on a series of assumptions that could, at any moment, render this diary moot, but I thought I might share it all the same.

Much has been said in some articles recently, as well as some threads here, about Michigan’s chances of making it to the Championship Game, not to mention winning the NCAA Tournament. It dawned on me that we can estimate these chances for each of the remaining possible paths to the game, and indeed, to the title.

First, of course, we would need to beat Kansas, and at least at the time of this writing and the time that I ran the simulated matchup, Michigan was a slight favorite over at Massey – 53%. So, for the sake of argument, assume that we beat Kansas in this scenario:

The table above outlines possible paths to the Championship game. If we beat Kansas, then it is either Florida (43% estimated probability) or Florida Gulf Coast (84% estimated probability). If we were to pass this hurdle in either scenario, it would lead to a game against either Marquette (72%), Syracuse (61%), Miami (YTM) (54%) or Indiana (44%).

So, you can see here the estimated probabilities for each of those paths. Obviously, the path which would have us beating Florida Gulf Coast and Marquette turns out to be the easiest and most attractive, and the Kansas-Florida-Indiana route would be the most unlikely and harrowing. However, as you’ll note, there are no non-zero chances.

Of course, there are eight potential matchups coming from the other two regions at this point, at least for the time being. Here’s where I make an admittedly unscientific jump for purposes of simplicity – I did not actually calculate the independent paths for each of the teams to reach the championship game. Instead, I rather went with the “Say, for the moment, this happens and they reach the final game…” approach in the full understanding that, for seven of those teams, it won’t happen. I sort of address this in a moment.

So, we have Louisville, Oregon, Michigan St., Duke, Wichita St. La Salle, Arizona and Ohio State still sitting out there. This is a purely hypothetical scenario where you knew who the opponent would be in advance essentially.  

So, in a purely hypothetical world where one of these teams would be the guaranteed opponent, this is more or less what the individual paths would look like. Again, there is element of uncertainty on this side of the bracket too, if you will, but I went out on a bit of a limb and averaged these results.

I could be wrong, but I theorize that if you took the independent paths of the other teams into consideration in this very broad hypothetical, the mean represented here would be reasonably close to the typical result you would see for the easier paths to the championship game.

Many of the more likely results would fall below this if we took everything into consideration. I like to see the mean here as more or less a ceiling in that regard. My guess is that the mean, if we actually took into account all of the estimated probabilities from the other brackets of each team surviving through their own possible routes, that the mean would fall to somewhere around the 1^st standard deviation below the number above (10.571%-4.853%, or 5.719%, which is fairly close to Massey’s estimate).

For example, if Louisville goes through Oregon, then Duke, then Ohio State, that 0.80 x 0.64 x 0.64 per the Massey matchups, so 32.768% for them through this path. If we combined that with Michigan’s 32.054% chance through its easiest route, it comes to 10.50% of seeing that actual matchup, but of course, through the hardest path for Michigan, we find ourselves about 2 standard deviations below the mean here at 1.41%.

If we were to follow Ohio State down an Arizona-Wichita State-Louisville route, the estimated chance of that actual result is 16.63%, meaning that in combination with our chances on the easy road, that game has a 5.33% chance of occurring. Down the hardest road, for contrast, there would be a 0.717% chance of this game occurring.

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

If you got this far, my hope is that you got the central idea here, which was to develop a construct to get a sense of what the paths to victory would be, what our chances are in a hypothetical scenario where we knew the opponent, and what they might actually be – on average – in practice. Of course, with each advancement, a layer is peeled away and odds increase, and if a team loses in the Tournament, then none of this matters. My hope was to present my own take on the “mathematical analysis” presented in several threads this week. Now, beat Kansas!

CAT PHOTO:

'm a little worried about this matchup (assuming that Kansas pulls its head out of its ass and plays a complete game), so I didn't do any cocky demeaning of their mascot or whatever.  Instead, I decided to go a little more conservative and just celebrate the guys for their excellent play in the tournament thus far.  Hope you enjoy the wallpaper, even if it's only for a day or two.  Go Blue, Beat Kansas!

Desktop (16:9)

Mobile

Enjoy!

- JonValk

When we last left off with our heroes...
DESMOND BLOCKHAM WAS IN AN ACCIDENT LAST WEEK
that may or may not have involved, well, a Twosie.  A tandem bicycle.
He was then DIAGNOSED WITH A STRANGE CONDITION which
in turn prompted him to attempt to walk on to the Michigan
football team.  After being mauled on a controversial play
that some readers say drew the ire of the football gods,
DESMOND WAS OFFERED A SPOT ON THE TEAM
by Coach Hoke. And so he was sent to the
equipment manager to get his uniform...

SPECIAL CHARACTER

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Yeah, I know this isn't how it works. But pretty much every story I've ever heard about Big Jon Falk is that he's a pretty nice guy and has helped thousands of people out over the years.  Besides, we're talking about a scrawny kid who's been invited onto the team because of some bizarre medical condition straight out of a bad Syfy made-for-TV movie.  So perhaps you can suspend your disbelief regarding the appropriate process for assigning uniform numbers to walk-ons as well.
 

As of the time of this writing there are currently no semi-colon jerseys
available for sale at the MDen. But it is, after all, only spring.

Friday Fun will probably make fun of the word Jayhawk in some way. Go Blue.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every week here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

Follow THE BLOCKHAMS™ on Twitter at @theblockhams, and don't forget to
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