Diaries

OMG IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN!

Ok, so I'm headin to Indy tomorrow evening to attend the game on Sunday, so I wanted to make sure I got this out in time.  I hope you enjoy these.  I did two slight variations of the same idea.  I like how they turned out and, quite honestly, I think these could make SWEET t-shirts.  Anyone who knows of a t-shirt maker that could do this quickly, hook me up and I'll send you the files (they're photoshop currently, but I can convert the main graphic to vector for illustrator or indesign printing).  I'm honestly not sure the last time I was this excited to attend a sporting event.  I didn't get to go to UTL (biggest regret of my sporting life), so I'm hopeful that Michigan has a strong showing against the one-and-done poster boys of UK.  Honestly, I was hoping for a revenge game against Louisville, but I'll take it because OMG ELITE EIGHT!  As usual, constructive criticisms and/or ideas for new wallpapers are always encouraged/welcome.  Enjoy and GO BLUE!

"First Person (Not Just A) Shooter" Desktop (1920x1080):

"CHISELED [Our Workouts Work] SHOOTER" Desktop (1920x1080):

#GOBLUE

- JonValk

Northwestern:

Northwestern finished 11th in the Big Ten last year with a 6-12 record. There is no guarantee that they will get any better as they lose some key players. 10th Year senior Drew Crawford finally graduates, and they also lose seniors Nikola Cerina, and James Montgomery the third. Kale Abrahamson, and Chier Ajou also are transferring. Northwestern loses 26% of their assists, 29% of their rebounds, 32% of their minutes, and 34% of their points. They do bring in 4 freshmen so that could be promising.

Here is their projected roster:

#   Name                    HT   WT   YR       POS

23 Jershon Cobb       6-5   205  RS.SR. G

Cobb will have to be their go to guy, losing Crawford means a huge void in scoring. Cobb showed the ability last year to take over, he may be able to this year as well. Cobb will be the starting Small Forward.

3   Dave Sobolewski  6-1   180   SR.      G

The starting Point Guard, got hurt last year, but will continue to start. Takes A LOT of shots, but does not make many of them.

14  Tre Demps           6-2    193   RS.JR  G

Demps was another player that could score in bursts, he will be the starting Shooting Guard and the second go-to scorer.

22  Alex Olah            7-0     265   JR.       C

Olah is a foul magnet, but is a large body that hopefully can continue his defensive prowess. The latest installment in the old looking young guy series. Starting Center.

34  Sanjay Lumpkin  6-6     210   RS. SO  F

Lumpkin will be the starting Power Forward, and will look to add to his 3.8 points per game. He will most likely add to his points due to the large amounts of minutes he will get.

31  Aaron Liberman  6-10   215   RS.SO   C

Liberman did not play much this year, and probably won't play that much this year either.

32  Nathan Taphorn   6-7    190   SO.        F

The 6th man, Taphorn averaged 2.5 points last season and he is going to be an important piece going forward.

     Victor Law             6-6     185   FR.        F

Northwesterns highest touted recruit, a Four star, that could be playing meaningful minutes right away.

     Bryant McIntosh    6-3     175   FR.       G

A three star, will most likely be the first guard off the bench.

    Scott Lindsey         6-5      180   FR.       F

Another three star, probably a 8 minute a game kind of guy.

    Johnnie Vassar      5-11     175   FR.       PG

Most likely a redshirt

Projected Starting Lineup:

Point Guard: Dave Sobolewski

Shooting Guard: Tre Demps

Small Forward: Jershon Cobb

Power Forward: Sanjay Lumpkin

Center: Alex Olah

Northwestern will not be good. I think they will finish 12th in the conference with a 5-13 record. They are very thin, and not uber experienced. 

Michigan plays them at Home and Away, which again is very favorable.

Next up... Indiana.

I vowed to have a wallpaper done for ya'll for tomorrow's game and HERE IT IS!  I actually made two, and while I definitely like the first one best, the second actually took me longer to put together.  I just was TOO frustrated with my keyboard/mouse combo that I have yet to replace to go any further in refining it.  Hope you like them.  As always, constructive criticism and/or ideas for future wallpapers are welcome.  BEAT THE VOLS! CHARLES WOODSON! 2014!

"Simply Sixteen" Desktop (1920x1080):

"I'll Take That One" Desktop (1920x1080):

#GOBLUE

- JonValk

It has been discussed a few times on the board that Michigan is typically very good at dictating the game to its opponents, and there is definitely evidence of that in the team’s offensive efficiency numbers. During the season to date, Michigan has maintained an average offensive efficiency of 1.20 with a standard deviation of  0.163 (0.118 during conference play only), which seems to me to be a relatively narrow band considering that the standard deviation for Michigan’s possessions per game was only 4 against an average of 62 (and 61 possessions with a standard deviation of 3 in conference play). Long story short, the play was relatively consistent in its production and pace. When we talk about how it is vital to impose your will early in a game, there aren’t too many teams that can do it quite in the way that Michigan has.

Below is the normalized graph for offensive efficiency:

                You’ll note right away the relative handful of games on the extreme ends of performance. There are only four games with a Z-score greater than 1.00, meaning that offensive efficiency was greater than one standard deviation above the mean. On the other end, there were five games where efficiency was more than one standard deviation below the mean, all of them losses.

The story is a little different when we flip to defense, of course:

                Here you can see a little more in the way of erratic behavior, but for those of us who kept saying that the defense “is what it is”, well, this is it. Interestingly, the distribution has a similar look to the offensive one with a standard deviation here of 0.168 against an average of 1.04. Seven games actually are greater than one standard deviation above the mean compared to six games more than one standard deviation below the mean. There is a marked jump in the number of “extreme” performances in this aspect of the game.

From this data, we can build a nice little set of histograms and get an idea of what the probability distributions looked like for efficiency on both offense and defense, but I would also like to throw scoring margin in here because it is interesting in the case of Michigan. Actually, let’s discuss that first.

For each of these next graphs, I broke the cumulative function into fifths (hence, for example, “0.00-0.20”, which represents the first fifth of the total area under the curve) and made the histograms based on relative position. For scoring margin, it is important to note that for the season to date (postseason included for giggles) our average margin is +9.45 points with a standard deviation of 16.08 points.

Here’s what the histogram for scoring margin looks like:

                So, what you see here is a lot of close games basically. Indeed, we played in 20 games where the scoring margin was +10 or less (12 of which were wins), compared to only 13 games won by more than 10 points (also, two where the margin was exactly 10 points).

Here is offensive efficiency getting a similar treatment:

                Again, the relative steadiness of the offense is seen here. If you look at the three bars in the middle, that more or less represents the two-thirds of Michigan’s games which sit in their “zone” around the 1.20 line, if you will.

On defense:

                Yeah, this one is decidedly wobbly and definitely skewed towards “meh” performances. Many of the games on the left (“better” defensive efficiency, in this case) represent our out-of-conference schedule actually.

CONCLUSION:

                Like everything else, this is for the board’s perusal. The only thing I hoped to do was perhaps give some numerical credence to some of the themes on the board of late.

Oh, and here's a gem...Super Mario 3, a cappella...

Rutgers:

Continuing after the Purdue preview, I decided to start at the bottom and work my way up what I think will be the standings next year. Rutgers was not very good this year, finishing 5-13 in the not-so-good American conference. A lot of people would say, "you can only get better from here". This may be true for this Rutgers team. Rutgers loses seniors Wally Judge and J.J Moore. Jerome Seagears and D'Von Campell, and Craig Brown are also transferring. Losing these five players means a loss of 48% of their points and 41% of their rebounds per game, along with 50% of their minutes. They do bring in 4 freshmen who, unless they contribute right away will leave Rutgers pretty awful.

So here is their projected roster:

#     Name                  HT   WT   YR   POS

11   Kadeem Jack      6-9   230   SR.  PF

Starting Power Forward, averaged 14.3 points per game with 6.8 rebounds. A close second to Mack.

4     Myles Mack         5-9   175   SR.  PG

Starting Point Guard, averaged 15 points per game with 4.3 Assists. Rutgers' best player.

13   Malick Kone          6-5   200  SR.  SF

The starting Shooting Guard, averaged 3.5 points per game last year.

44    Kerwin Okoro       6-5   220  JR.   SF

Does not play meaningful minutes.

21    Stephen Zurich    6-5   205  JR.    SF

Same as Okoro.

23    Jalen Hyde          5-8    160   JR.   PG

Same as Okoro.

35    Greg Lewis          6-9     260   JR.  PF

The starting Center that has a decent rebound rate. With him starting Rutgers actually has a pretty big lineup.

10    Junior Etou          6-7     225   SO.   SF

The starting Small Forward, averaged 5.3 points per game.

30    Khalil Batie           5-10   175   SO.   PG

Walk-on

5     Mike Williams         6-2    180   FR.    SG

3 Star, offers from Dayton, Iowa, ST. Johns, Temple... 

3      Bishop Daniels      6-3     185   FR.    SG

3 star, no other offers

14    Ibrahima Diallo      6-9     215    FR.   C

Rawer than sushi. 3 Star

22    Dwayne Foreman  6-7     215    FR.    PF

Offers from Iowa State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh...

My projected starting lineup:

Point Guard: Myles Mack

Shooting Guard: Malick Kone

Small Forward: Junior Etou

Power Foward: Kadeem Jack

Center: Greg Lewis

Michigan plays Rutgers at home and on the road next year, which is favorable for us.

In all, Rutgers is a pretty small team that is losing a lot of players of. They do not have depth, or much skill. The junior class looks to have nothing so the team will rely on mostly seniors. I project Rutgers will go 4-14 and tie with Purdue for last. 

Next up... Northwestern.

Purdue:

Let me preface this by saying that this is my first thread here and it would be nice if you guys take it easy on me. I have always been interested in statistics and putting together previews of certain teams. I got the idea to go through an early preview of the B1G teams. So, here goes it.

The Purdue basketball team has suffered through an awful year in which they finished last in the B1G. The team lost seniors Terone Johnson (#0), Errick Peck (#32), Sterling Carter (#1), and Travis Carroll (#50). Not only did they lose these four core seniors, but they also lost Terone's younger brother Ronnie Johnson who is transferring. In addition, Jay Simpson unfortunately has suffered a career ending heart condition and will not be playing. Between these six players they are losing 55% of their minutes and 52% of their points. So here is the projected roster for next season:

Number  Name                   HT             WT          YR         POS

30      Neal Beshears          6-7            198       SR.           SF

Has only played in 26 games in his 3 years, most likely will continue on that path.

11      Stephen Toyra          6-3            177       JR.           SG

Kind of the same deal, only played in 19 games in his two years.

2        Jon McKeeman         6-1             180        JR.          PG

Even more of a scrub, 6 games, 2 years.

*20     A.J. Hammons          7-0             251         JR.         C

Hammons is one of the biggest headcases in college basketball. When trying, he is a dominant force, when careless, he is a foul and turnover machine. Could go pro this year, but not likely. Has averaged 10.7 points and 6.7 rebounds over his career. Starting Center.

*35     Rapheal Davis          6-5             211         JR.       SG

Davis will most likely be the starting two guard or three. He has averaged 5.8 points and 3.8 rebounds over his career. He is and most likely will continue to be just an average player.

*21     Kendall Stephens     6-6             193          SO.       SG

Stephens is "just a shooter". He will most likely continue this. Because of his game he might play the 2 on offense and the 3 on defense. Stephens will most likely make a jump and add to his 8 points per game. May have to come off the bench.

*5       Basil Smotherman    6-5           222           SO.       SF

Basil Smotherman, a candidate for name of the year, will continue his starting ways. He will look to add to his 5 points per game.

*12     Bryson Scott            6-1           201           SO.       PG

Bryson Scott will most likely get the nod at the Point. He only started two games last year and his A:TO is not very good, but he can make a Freshman jump.

24      Anfernee Brown        6-1           190            SO.       PG

Will not play.

44      Isaac Haas                7-2           275           FR.       C

Thier highest touted recruit, a 7-2 center is a rare commodity and he may get some meaningful minutes. 4 star on rivals.

4        Vince Edwards          6-7           205           FR.        SF

Another freshman that may get some important minutes, no more than any other established forwards, as there are plenty on the team.

23      Jacquill Taylor           6-9            215            FR.      PF

May get some minutes.

31      Dakota Mathias         6-4           190            FR.       SG

Possibilty for him to get some good minutes, relies on whether or not Eron Harris transfers. Although Harris does not play the same position, he would take up valuable minutes.

3        P.J. Thompson          5-10           155             FR.     PG