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Diaries
Final Four wallpapers/backgrounds
Hey all,
Not a hype video this time around, but with inspiration from monUMental's usual role, I decided to create some wallpapers for our Final Four game on Saturday. (Click the image for fullsize.) I hope you like them!
Desktop:
iPad/tablet:
iPhone 5:
Mobile/iPod Touch:
Mod edit: Bumped to diary because obviously. JGB.
Atlanta Final Four Visitor's Guide
For those of you lucky enough to be coming down to Atlanta for the weekend, I present to you my quick-ish (okay maybe not really) guide to the city. Some things to take into consideration while reading and evaluating my suggestions: I’m approaching 30 and have been in Atlanta since 2001 (born and raised in Birmingham, MI prior to that); I’ve lived in a lot of areas of this city and have settled down in the Inman Park/Old 4th Ward area, which is a couple of miles east of downtown; I eat out quite a bit, go to a lot of bars, and see a lot of live music (mostly electronic as of late). I’ll try to include options that I think anyone can enjoy, but I do have a section at the end for the under 30 crowd looking to go out.
As a companion to what’s below, please make use of the google map that I’ve created. Everything mentioned below, plus some additional spots, are pinned on the map. Sections of town are also outlined to help you figure things out. On the left hand side of the map, everything is organized by neighborhood and then alphabetical order within each neighborhood.
Before I get started on everything, a note on transportation: Atlanta’s public transit is MARTA, and while it’s not all that great, you can make it work for you. There is a MARTA stop at the Airport and the Georgia Dome, so if you stay near a MARTA train station, you can make it through the weekend without needing a car. That said, this is a city built for cars, and most of the places are exponentially easier to reach by car than by MARTA.
-------
I’ll start with the three main areas of Atlanta. From south to north these are Downtown, Midtown, and Buckhead. It’s about 10 miles between downtown and the northern reaches of Buckhead. I’ll provide some pros and cons of staying in each area and things to do during the day and at night.
Downtown
This is where the game is going to be played and all of the official festivities are going to be. The Dome, Philips Arena, The Georgia World Congress Center, CNN Center, and Centennial Olympic Park are all adjacent. There are plenty of hotel options in the area. The ones closest to the dome are the Hilton Garden Inn, The Omni, Embassy Suites, and the Glenn. Whether or not anything is available in those, I don’t know. Probably not, but there are still a lot of larger hotels within walking distance like the Westin, the Marriott Marquis, the Hyatt, The W Downtown, etc.
During the day:
Downtown has a few major tourist attractions. You’ve probably heard about the Georgia Aquarium, and the hype is for real. Go check it out - you won’t be disappointed. The World of Coca-Cola is right next door to the Aquarium, but I’ve never been. If you have a couple of hours to kill I’m sure it’s better than nothing, but I don’t think it’s a must-do. These are all located in/around Centennial Olympic Park, which will be hosting some pretty big (free!) concerts all weekend.
A couple miles east of downtown is the King Center. It’s just outside of comfortable walking distance so you can take MARTA or a cab (cab is probably easier if you can get one because even if you take MARTA you still have to walk a bit). Admission to the center is free (so is parking if you're driving). It’s basically just a little museum but you can also tour the home that MLK, Jr. lived in, as well as tour his church, Ebenezer Baptist.
Nightlife:
Downtown, unfortunately, is usually pretty dead at night. A lot of people work down there, but not so many live there. There are some decent restaurants and bars but it’s not a place to go out and party. That may change slightly just because there are going to be so many people in town, but don’t get your hopes up for any late night ragers. You’ll have to head a couple of miles north or east for those (see below).
I don’t eat downtown too much, but here are a few good spots I can recommend:
- Legal Seafoods (seafood, obvs. Slightly pricey but worth it if that’s what you’re looking for)
- Der Biergarten (German food, German beer, great atmosphere and setting with outdoor seating)
- Stats (ultimate sports bar – beer taps at your table)
- Park Bar
- Sidebar
Do not go to Underground Atlanta. Seriously. It’s garbage. Nobody goes there and there’s nothing to do, despite what you may have heard. Don’t waste your time.
Bottom line: If you want to be within walking distance of all the Final Four activities and aren’t too concerned with being near a lot of nightlife, Downtown is where you’ll want to stay.
Midtown
Midtown has quite a bit to offer and while it’s not within walking distance of the Georgia Dome, if you stay near one of the MARTA stations (the Midtown station at 10th Street or the Arts Center station at 15th Street), then you will be able to get to there easily without a car. So if you’re looking for a hotel, try to keep it near a MARTA station for the best experience.
These would all be decent options, but the list is by no means exhaustive:
- Hilton Garden Inn Midtown (just opened a couple of months ago)
- Regency Suites Hotel
- W Midtown
- Lowes Hotel
- Renaissance Hotel
During the Day:
Piedmont Park is Atlanta’s version of NYC’s Central Park (it was designed by the same person). Though nowhere near as cool as Central Park, it’s still a great place to walk around, especially if the weather is nice. It offers some nice views. The southeast corner of the park is home to Park Tavern, which is a good place to grab lunch or a drink (even better if it’s raining, because they serve $1 beers). The southeast corner also attaches to the Atlanta BeltLine, which is really just a glorified sidewalk for now but will eventually form a 22-mile loop around the city and include transit to connect disparate parts of the city in a much more efficient manner. Good place for a casual stroll but not much to actually do. At the northwest corner of the park are the Atlanta Botanical Gardens which are great if you’re into that kind of thing.
The High Museum of Art is also located in Midtown and is a very high quality museum, again worth checking out if that’s your style.
Nightlife:
There’s way more going on in Midtown at night than compared to Downtown. The center of activity generally tends to be around Crescent Ave, between 11th and 14th streets, where there are a couple of blocks worth of restaurants, bars, and clubs. I’d just walk around and see what looks interesting. If you want to go to a club, though, I will say try something like CosmoLava, which is a little more laid back, before you try Opera, which is a full-on clubby club with exactly the people you’d expect to find at clubs. (Warning: annoying auto-play video on the Opera site, which is absolutely fitting.)
There are a few more spots outside of the specific area mentioned above that I would recommend:
- Cypress Street Pint and Plate
- The Vortex (burgers). There is also a location in Little 5 Points mentioned below.
- Proof and Provision
- Empire State South (for a nicer meal)
The area around 10th and Piedmont is one of the hotspots for the gay community, which is pretty prominent in Atlanta, just FYI.
Bottom line: stay in Midtown if you want to be close to nightlife and have a ton of restaurant options within walking distance. If you’re close to a MARTA station, all the better, because that’ll make getting to the games pretty simple.
Buckhead
To me, Buckhead is overrated. In it’s heyday, it was the place to be, but it’s not like that anymore. It’s the more “upscale” part of town, but it’s not walkable and the types of bars and clubs here are not my scene, so I can’t give you too much to go on. Maybe someone else can fill in the gaps here.
One thing I absolutely have to recommend, though, is Holeman & Finch. Always mentioned in the discussion of best burger in Atlanta - partly due to its exclusivity as only 24 are served each night, starting at 10 p.m., and you have to get there by about 8:30 if you want to get one – it’s also a great bar and restaurant overall. If waiting an hour and half for a burger doesn’t sound appealing, the good news is that on Sundays they serve unlimited burgers for brunch. They usually sell about 200-300 during those brunches. Yes, they are that good. The place is pretty tiny, so you might have to wait, but I don’t think you will be disappointed.
Bottom line: If you’re a baller and you have your wife in tow, stay in Buckhead at the St. Regis and send her to Lenox/Phipps to spend all of your cash.
So that’s the basic rundown, which turned out to be quite difficult. Even in that little bit there is so much I haven’t mentioned. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention these places/areas - most of which are going to require a car to get to.
Antico Pizza. Best pizza in the city. Authentic Napoletana style. Walk up, order, go find a seat in the kitchen and watch the guys pump out pizza after pizza as they blast Italian music. After a few minutes, yours will be there, and in another few minutes it’ll be gone. Pick up a bottle of wine or some beer before you go, because it’s BYOB. (Mac’s in Midtown is a good place to grab alcohol, btw.)
SweetWater Brewery. If you like beer, check out their brewery tours which run Wednesday – Friday from 5:30 to 7:30 and Saturday from 2:30 to 4:30. Not the easiest place to get to, but it’s a good time.
Ormsby’s is like your buddy’s ultimate man cave basement. The downstairs area has a bar, pool tables, skee ball, foosball, and even a bocce ball court. It’s become a little over-populated over the last couple of years, but it’s pretty unique and generally a fun time.
The Porter Beer Bar/Little 5 Points. Rated one of the top few beer bars in the US, The Porter’s beer list is ridiculous. Their food is pretty damn good too. The Porter is located in Little 5 Points, which is a more artistic/alternative area of town (tattoos, piercings, hipsters, head shops). If you can get over there and walk around the area, I would encourage you to do so. There are a few other good bars nearby if The Porter isn’t your style: the original location of The Vortex, mentioned above, is here; Brewhouse is a good place to check out if you’re a soccer/footie fan; and Euclid Avenue Yacht Club is a nice hangout for the locals. Wrecking Bar Brewpub is just slightly removed from L5P proper, but another solid choice for food and beer (brewed in-house).
Barcelona Wine Bar/Inman Park. If you are in the mood for tapas, wine, and a great dining atmosphere, check out Barcelona. It will be packed, so you will need to make a reservation. Even though this area of town is a bit removed from Downtown and Midtown, an entire night can be spent walking around to the different bars and restaurants, most of which are way more low-key than Barcelona, but still great (Victory Sandwich Bar, Jack’s Pizza & Wings, and P’Cheen, to name a few).
Kevin Rathbun Steak. Also located in Inman Park/Old 4th Ward, this is the place to go if you want the best steak in the city.
The Highlands is another area where you can spend the night bar hopping and probably find something to suit your tastes. There are a mix of vibes from yuppie-ish and/or brotastic (Hand in Hand, Dark Horse Tavern) to divey (Moe’s & Joe’s, Neighbors). As long as you’re looking to drink, you’ll be fine here.
Decatur is an enclave about 6-7 miles east of Downtown. The good news is that it’s totally accessible via MARTA, so even if you’re staying Downtown, it’s easy to get to and everything worth doing in Decatur is centered around the MARTA station. It’s one of the few well-planned MARTA stations, to be honest. Good bars in Decatur include Brickstore Pub (their beer list is on par with The Porter, which is saying something), Leon’s Full Service (cocktails and food), and Twain’s (pool hall, bar games, good beer selection, including some of their own brews). Fun fact: all three of those places are owned by the same couple. Good restaurants in Decatur include Iberian Pig, Cakes & Ale, and Raging Burrito.
Brunch in Atlanta tends to be a big deal, and there are many places that specialize in brunch fare. To name a few:
- Highland Bakery (Inman Park/Old 4th Ward, near Jack’s and P’Cheen mentioned above)
- West Egg Café (A couple miles west of Midtown, near Ormsby’s mentioned above)
- Einstein’s (Midtown)
- The Flying Biscuit (Candler Park, Midtown, and Buckhead locations)
- Ria’s Bluebird (Grant Park)
Finally, one last section for the students or under 30 crowd looking to go out at night to some of the more local/non-touristy places (even less touristy than what I’ve mentioned above):
Edgewood Ave – all of the places below are within a few blocks of each other and walkable. You probably want to cab it from downtown/midtown to this area. In full disclosure, there are some safety concerns, though I have never personally had any issues at all. It’s also a bit of a mess right now because they are installing a streetcar system so the road is all torn up.
- Sister Louisa’s Church of the Living Room and Ping Pong Emporium (affectionately known as simply “Church”): Cool bar, usually with some intense games of ping pong going on upstairs. Get drunk, put on a preacher’s robe, and hang out.
- Noni’s: A deli/restaurant by day, it turns into a dance club at night. Usually pretty packed out. DJs tend to play electro/house.
- Sound Table: another restaurant by day, dance club by night.
- Pizzeria Vesuvius: Decent pizza, good vibe. There’s a bookcase at the back of the restaurant. If you pull on it, you’ll find that it’s actually a door to a hidden speakeasy (is that redundant?). Now you’re in the know.
Poncey-Highlands – Just around the corner from the Highlands, there are a few places for late night fun:
- Bookhouse Pub: small, cozy, good crowd and good drinks.
- MJQ: Next door/underneath Bookhouse. Literally underground. Pretty grimy but can be a lot of fun if you just want to drink and dance.
- El Bar: Just up the road from Bookhouse and MJQ, El Bar is located behind/underneath the El Azteca restaurant on Ponce. It’s almost inconceivable that there’s even a club there, but it’s there and it’s pretty awesome IMO. This place is tiny and the crowd does not arrive until after midnight. DJs tend to play more hip-hop/trap music here.
- Clermont Lounge: A true Atlanta experience. I will say no more, lest I spoil the surprise. You can google it if you want, but really you should just go without any expectations. The drunker you are, the better.
East Atlanta: tough to get to without a car, East Atlanta Village (EAV) has a good bar and restaurant scene, including:
- Graveyard Tavern (Pool, DJs)
- Midway Pub (Sports bar with a good patio)
- The Earl (Bar/restaurant with an indie rock music venue in the back)
- 529 (live music pretty much every night)
That’s pretty much it for now. Hopefully you found this useful and informative. Please feel free to ask specific questions in the comments and I will be happy to provide my best input and advice. I’m fully aware that I missed a lot of good spots, so if you’re an Atlanta resident feel free to offer additional suggestions as well. Have fun down here, be safe, and Go Blue!!
Screw Mudville: An Ode to Burke and the boys
Greetings MGoBlog,
I'm reposting a poem that I shared earlier in the comments of the Lore post by Brian. Justingoblue did me the honor of a points bump so I could post my own content. I'm a little nervous since it's my first post but nothing compared to last night! I chose to make it a diary solely because it seems diary content fills up the whole center column while board topics include the user information on the left. Maybe this will allow the lines enough room not to wrap and will be easier to read. Moderators, feel free to place it somewhere else if needed.
This is the MGoBlog version. I have a slightly different version on my personal sight without the MGo jokes. Inspired by Brian's post: Exponent Time, Ernest Thayer's: Casey at the Bat, the Liveblog and, of course, the team! As I said before, I don't claim to be a professional poet or writer and it needs some revising. But I'm pretty happy with how it turned out so far. Anyway, get to the point man...
Screw Mudville
Compare and Contrast - Random Encounters with MSU & OSU Fans This Past Week
Last week I took my family on a train trip from Chicago to Seattle for Spring Break. This trip was planned months ago and as luck would have it our flight from Cleveland got into Chicago early last Saturday and the train didn't leave until 2:15pm CST so I had time to find a bar and watch the Michigan-VCU game. We selected "Mother Hubbard's" because it was fairly close to Union Station and had good reviews for their food & beer selection and was considered "kid friendly (I had our 8 year old with us) and we had a great time. I wore my Michigan warm-up jacket and Sugar Bowl hat and both my wife and son had Michigan gear on as well. We were pretty much the only Michigan fans in there that day based on the cheering (just us mostly) and people were friendly and supportive.
On our way out after the game we passed a big table of MSU fans who had recently arrived to watch their game against Memphis. They were all dressed in their finest Sparty gear and as we passed their table I said "good luck today guys - keep the B1G domination rolling" and smiled. I was greeted back with "whatthefuck-ever dude" by one guy and some chick giving me the finger. Everybody at their table laughed at that (the girl flipping me off) and they all basically turned their back on me and said nothing after that. I was way too happy to let a bunch of MSU fans bring me down so I just left and reminded myself that they truly just hate us in all situations no matter what and left.
On Thursday of this past week we were winding up our stay in Seattle and getting ready to fly home the next morning. By the way - if you haven't spent time in Seattle I HIGHLY recommend doing so as it's a fantastic city with more to do than we could squeeze in four days but that's another story. Anyways we decided to go to a Sports Bar near our hotel to watch the OSU & Indiana games and cheer for our fellow B1G schools while enjoying a few beers and some food. Shortly after the OSU game started I heard a roar coming from the other side of the partition and when I stood up I saw about 200 OSU fans all decked out in scarlet and grey with a giant "Seattle Buckeye Club" banner hung beneath the biggest TV in the place. I live in Cleveland and somehow I manage to run into the largest collection of Buckeye fans I've ever seen some 2,000 miles away from home.
Well the difference between the Buckeye fans and the MSU fans was pretty stark. I was dressed basically the same (full Michigan-wear regalia) and other than some good-natured teasing about why I picked THAT bar I was welcomed and to a person, told they were going to root like Hell for us tomorrow. No snide comments, no smug laughs and certainly no one-finger salutes like I got from the Michigan State fans earlier last week. And mind you Ohio State was losing most of the game Thursday and Michigan State was killing Memphis when both encounters occurred so I couldn't attribute their reactions to me on the score of the game they were following.
To me it summed up and confirmed what I've thought about how the respective fan bases view Michigan and our fan base. OSU dislikes, but respects Michigan and generally roots for us to win unless of course they are playing us. MSU, on-the-other-hand, dislikes us period and would like nothing better than to see us lose every game no matter what. Oh, and one last thing. If you ever get the chance to take a cross-country train trip I would recommend that experience as well. You will get to see parts of the country you just can't see any other way!
UPDATE: I got about six congradulatory text's from OSU friends of mine here in Ohio after the game yesterday. A couple of guys were texting me mid-game telling me they were very happy that at least one B1G team showed up large for the tourny.
Breaking Down Ondre Pipkins' Technique From 5-second "Michigan Drill" Practice Video
[Ed-S: BumP!]
Yes, I have an addiction. Yes, it's March. Some choose to build tiny wooden ships in bottles, I intricately break down defensive lineman technique from spring practice videos frame by frame.
Here's the set-up, Pipkins vs. early enrollee Kyle Bosch and a running back who I don't even bother identifying because Pipkins plays this so well that it doesn't matter what the running back does. Besides, his job is to just pick a side and hit it hard.
Here, Pipkins has a pretty good stance, wide base, on the balls of his feet, athletic posture and good knee bend. Low for a big man - that small human he shed this offseason seems to have helped with that some.

Right after the snap, Pipkins has fired of his left foot and is already bringing his hands, preparing to make contact with Bosch. At first glance he appears to come out a little high, but as we'll see, his hands, strength and quick feet help him overcome that. The ideal first step (my understanding) is to be quick, low to the ground, forceful and almost a jab - generate force but reset to be able to drive off again.

As he makes contact with Bosch, Pipkins has already driven off his right foot as well, generating more power and force into Bosch. His hands have shot inside very quickly and, as we'll see, will allow him to control Bosch.

Here, Pipkins has reset both feet and will again drive through them to push Bosch back. They're pretty much at the line of scrimmage - Bosch has not fired off the ball nor has he moved his feet, except laterally. I think he should be drive blocking here, but I could be mistaken. Maybe his job is just to seal off Pipkins. Regardless, the young buck won't win this battle. Bosch has his hands in pretty poor position, as Pipkins has him basically by the collar and Bosch would need to hold to really have his left hand be any use to him at this point.

This time as Pipkins generates more power into Bosch with his legs, he clearly has leverage. Just compare the angles of their bodies to the ground - Pipkins is firing out and up, Bosch is sitting back down onto his heels. His feet are again driving for power, and as we'll see in a second, he's about to explode upward with his feet and hips, while also extending his arms and pressing Bosch away from him.

He's pushing off the ground hard enough that both feet are (minorly) airborn. His hands are extended, they're even with his eyes. Ideally they will end up above his eyes when he extends, but this a strong punch he delivers. Keep in mind this has all happened in a few split seconds as we are just now seeing the ballcarrier enter the frame.

Here, Pipkins has his left arm free with his right fully controlling Bosch, further pushing him back on his heels. The running back has already decided to go left, so that's where Pipkins will meet him with great haste.

Contact is made with the ballcarrier at about the line of scrimmage, as Bosch is finally leaving his heels. He's also managed to grab a little cloth with his lefth and, proving that Pipkins hands were far better on this occasion. I'll give him credit for trying to finish the block and driving through Pipkins, but it's already over.

Tackle made - 1 yard gain.

Here's the video of the whole thing, starts at about 2:28.
If you start a second before you can see how much taller Devin is than Gallon which is both awesome and depressing at the same time. Let me know if you see any mistakes or glaring oversights or crap I just made up.
Paths To Victory: A Purely Hypothetical Construct
I write this in the full realization that it is based on a series of assumptions that could, at any moment, render this diary moot, but I thought I might share it all the same.
Much has been said in some articles recently, as well as some threads here, about Michigan’s chances of making it to the Championship Game, not to mention winning the NCAA Tournament. It dawned on me that we can estimate these chances for each of the remaining possible paths to the game, and indeed, to the title.
First, of course, we would need to beat Kansas, and at least at the time of this writing and the time that I ran the simulated matchup, Michigan was a slight favorite over at Massey – 53%. So, for the sake of argument, assume that we beat Kansas in this scenario:
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB. |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
The table above outlines possible paths to the Championship game. If we beat Kansas, then it is either Florida (43% estimated probability) or Florida Gulf Coast (84% estimated probability). If we were to pass this hurdle in either scenario, it would lead to a game against either Marquette (72%), Syracuse (61%), Miami (YTM) (54%) or Indiana (44%).
So, you can see here the estimated probabilities for each of those paths. Obviously, the path which would have us beating Florida Gulf Coast and Marquette turns out to be the easiest and most attractive, and the Kansas-Florida-Indiana route would be the most unlikely and harrowing. However, as you’ll note, there are no non-zero chances.
Of course, there are eight potential matchups coming from the other two regions at this point, at least for the time being. Here’s where I make an admittedly unscientific jump for purposes of simplicity – I did not actually calculate the independent paths for each of the teams to reach the championship game. Instead, I rather went with the “Say, for the moment, this happens and they reach the final game…” approach in the full understanding that, for seven of those teams, it won’t happen. I sort of address this in a moment.
So, we have Louisville, Oregon, Michigan St., Duke, Wichita St. La Salle, Arizona and Ohio State still sitting out there. This is a purely hypothetical scenario where you knew who the opponent would be in advance essentially.
|
LOUISVILLE |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT LOUISVILLE |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.31 |
9.937% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.31 |
8.419% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.31 |
7.453% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.31 |
5.935% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.31 |
5.087% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.31 |
4.310% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.31 |
3.815% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.31 |
3.038% |
|
OREGON |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT OREGON |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.64 |
20.515% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.64 |
17.381% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.64 |
15.386% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.64 |
12.252% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.64 |
10.502% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.64 |
8.897% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.64 |
7.876% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.64 |
6.272% |
|
MICHIGAN STATE |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT MICHIGAN STATE |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.49 |
15.707% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.49 |
13.307% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.49 |
11.780% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.49 |
9.380% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.49 |
8.040% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.49 |
6.812% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.49 |
6.030% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.49 |
4.802% |
|
DUKE |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT DUKE |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.48 |
15.386% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.48 |
13.035% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.48 |
11.540% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.48 |
9.189% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.48 |
7.876% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.48 |
6.673% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.48 |
5.907% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.48 |
4.704% |
|
WICHITA ST. |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT WICHITA STATE |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.64 |
20.515% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.64 |
17.381% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.64 |
15.386% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.64 |
12.252% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.64 |
10.502% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.64 |
8.897% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.64 |
7.876% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.64 |
6.272% |
|
LA SALLE |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT LA SALLE |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.77 |
24.682% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.77 |
20.911% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.77 |
18.511% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.77 |
14.741% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.77 |
12.635% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.77 |
10.704% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.77 |
9.476% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.77 |
7.546% |
|
ARIZONA |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT ARIZONA |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.60 |
19.233% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.60 |
16.294% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.60 |
14.424% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.60 |
11.486% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.60 |
9.845% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.60 |
8.341% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.60 |
7.384% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.60 |
5.880% |
|
OHIO STATE |
|||||
|
MICHIGAN VS. KANSAS |
ELITE EIGHT |
FINAL FOUR |
EST. PROB TO REACH NC GAME |
EST. PROB TO BEAT ARIZONA |
CHANCE OF WINNING ON PATH |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.72 |
32.054% |
0.44 |
14.104% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
27.157% |
0.44 |
11.949% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.54 |
24.041% |
0.44 |
10.578% |
|
0.53 |
0.84 |
0.43 |
19.144% |
0.44 |
8.423% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.72 |
16.409% |
0.44 |
7.220% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.61 |
13.902% |
0.44 |
6.117% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.54 |
12.307% |
0.44 |
5.415% |
|
0.53 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
9.800% |
0.44 |
4.312% |
So, in a purely hypothetical world where one of these teams would be the guaranteed opponent, this is more or less what the individual paths would look like. Again, there is element of uncertainty on this side of the bracket too, if you will, but I went out on a bit of a limb and averaged these results.
|
MEAN |
10.571% |
|
MEDIAN |
9.428% |
|
STD. DEV. |
4.853% |
I could be wrong, but I theorize that if you took the independent paths of the other teams into consideration in this very broad hypothetical, the mean represented here would be reasonably close to the typical result you would see for the easier paths to the championship game.
Many of the more likely results would fall below this if we took everything into consideration. I like to see the mean here as more or less a ceiling in that regard. My guess is that the mean, if we actually took into account all of the estimated probabilities from the other brackets of each team surviving through their own possible routes, that the mean would fall to somewhere around the 1st standard deviation below the number above (10.571%-4.853%, or 5.719%, which is fairly close to Massey’s estimate).
For example, if Louisville goes through Oregon, then Duke, then Ohio State, that 0.80 x 0.64 x 0.64 per the Massey matchups, so 32.768% for them through this path. If we combined that with Michigan’s 32.054% chance through its easiest route, it comes to 10.50% of seeing that actual matchup, but of course, through the hardest path for Michigan, we find ourselves about 2 standard deviations below the mean here at 1.41%.
If we were to follow Ohio State down an Arizona-Wichita State-Louisville route, the estimated chance of that actual result is 16.63%, meaning that in combination with our chances on the easy road, that game has a 5.33% chance of occurring. Down the hardest road, for contrast, there would be a 0.717% chance of this game occurring.
TL;DR CONCLUSION:
If you got this far, my hope is that you got the central idea here, which was to develop a construct to get a sense of what the paths to victory would be, what our chances are in a hypothetical scenario where we knew the opponent, and what they might actually be – on average – in practice. Of course, with each advancement, a layer is peeled away and odds increase, and if a team loses in the Tournament, then none of this matters. My hope was to present my own take on the “mathematical analysis” presented in several threads this week. Now, beat Kansas!
CAT PHOTO:

