is there such a thing as an etsy genuis? if so, this is it.
Thought I'd take a look at the last 10 years of DBs in "5 star status" - which I chose as the top 25ish players in the 247 Composite rankings. There are a lot of names so I only got through 4 years in heavy detail: 2005-2008. 14 players. Here is how those players did in the first 2 years of their careers along with what happened to them down the road.
Obvious caveats are obvious - (i) every player is an entity unto himself, (ii) what a prior group of players did is no guarantee of what a future group of similar players will do, (iii) small sample size.
But... it should give us a reasonable variance of expectation.
|2005||8||FR||Started 11 games @ FS, ACC All Freshman, 67 tackles, 1 INT|
|Kenny Phillips||SO||Started 10 games, ACL injury, 54 tackles, 4 INT, 2nd Team All American|
|Miami||Eventual||Left school after JR year, 31st pick NFL (1st)|
|Demetrice Morley||SO||Started 2nd game forward @ SS, 51 tackles, 2 INT|
|TN||Eventual||Dimissed from team, CFL|
|2005||15||FR||RB/CB hybrid - 300 yards rushing|
|Justin King||SO||Started 13 games @ CB, 2nd team All Big 10|
|PSU||Eventual||Left school after JR year, graduated in 2.5 yrs! 101st pick (4th)|
|2005||23||FR||Special teams, 2 tackles|
|Jamario O'Neal||SO||Started 2nd half of year after injury to another player, 30 tackles|
|OSU||Eventual||Backup in JR/SR years, Arena League|
|2006||5||FR||Started 12 games, 77 tackles|
|Myron Rolle||SO||Starter, 67 tackles|
|FSU||Eventual||Played 3 years, 207th pick (6th round), Rhodes Scholar|
|2006||11||FR||Started 12 games @ FS, 62 tackles, Freshman of the Year|
|Taylor Mays||SO||Starter, 65 tackles, 3rd Team All American|
|USC||Eventual||Stayed all 4 years, 49th pick (2nd round)|
|2006||20||FR||Special teams in 7 games at USC, transferred|
|Antwine Perez||SO||Started 2 games @ FS, 24 tackles|
|Maryland (USC)||Eventual||Had a good senior year but was undrafted|
|2007||3||FR||Started 12 games, 86 tackles, SEC Freshman of the Year|
|Eric Berry||SO||Starter, 72 tackles, 7 INTs, SEC Defensive Player of Year|
|TN||Eventual||Left school after JR year, 5th pick NFL (1st)|
|2007||16||FR||Turned into a WR|
|2007||25||FR||Played 4 game as a FR, suspended in Dec. Transferred to|
|Eugene Clifford||SO||Tennessee State|
|OSU||Eventual||Undrafted, cup of coffee with Ravens|
|2008||4||FR||Part time player, 48 tackles|
|Will Hill||SO||42 tackles|
|UF||Eventual||Left UF early, undrafted, but some NFL time despite a|
|litany of issues|
|2008||6||FR||Started 4 games (played 13), 41 tackles|
|Patrick Peterson||SO||52 tackles, 2nd Team All SEC|
|LSU||Eventual||Left school after JR year, 5th pick NFL (1st)|
|2008||25||FR||Started 6 games @ CB (played 13), 30 tackles|
|Brandon Harris||SO||Starter, 58 tackles, 3rd Team All American|
|Miami||Eventual||Left school after JR year, 60th pick NFL (2nd)|
|2008||26||FR||Switched to WR, 2 catches|
|Bama||Eventual||Converted back to DB, transferred to South Alabama, undrafted|
- STUD level: 6* of 14 (42%*) - Phillips, Mays, Berry, Peterson, Harris, Rolle
- UNDERACHIEVER: 5 of 14 (36%) - Morley, O'Neil, Perez, Clifford, Scott
- WR: 1 of 14 (7%) - Johnson
- ABOVE AVERAGE college player: 2 of 14 (14%) - King**, Hill
It is interesting how this group panned out - there were not a lot of just "good college players" like I expected when a 5 star does not fully pan out - i.e. he was not "all that" but ended up being a solid CFB player. Instead most of these guys were elite... or bombed out. A few guys like Hill and Morley seemed like they could have been better as well but had off the field issues - which does not seem to pertain to Peppers (but I guess we never really know do we?)
Also every guy who was "stud" or "above average" except for Mays (7 of 8, 88%) left after their JR year. So if Peppers is anywhere near the hype, it would be unrealistic to expect more than 2 year more from him at UM. Which makes the freshman year injury that much more stinky.
One other note as I went through these; it felt like a lot more of this group turned into safeties than corners. And there were a lot less INTs than I expected from this group in general outside Eric Berry.
* I put Rolle in STUD level despite the NFL draft placement because as I recall he wanted to study to be a doctor and that put off some teams with the whole Rhodes Scholar thing (I think it required him to take a year off).
** Torn on putting King in stud category but decided to throw him in above average
- 2009 - Craig Loston (9), Dre Kirkpatrick (13), Branden Smith (19), Greg Reid (23), Darius Winston (24)
- 2010 - Keenan Allen (10), Lamarcus Joyner (12), Matt Elam (15), Trovon Reed (23)
- 2011 - Karlos Williams (4), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (7)
FUCK THIS SHIT!!!! I have been working on this for 2 hours now. had tables which took FOR EVER to work out and then when i went to USCHO.com to look at pairwise I come back to the Diary page and it is all gone.
It shouldn't be this difficult so I'm saying fuck it. I got better stuff to do. I have almost broken my keyboard figuring this shit out for nothing.....
So here is the last part that I hadn't written up yet. I will be posting Open Threads Friday and Saturday this week as I will not be attending the Michigan games.
Michigan is currently in a tie for 15th in the Pairwise. I have run a few tests based off this weeks matchups assuming the following
-Michigan State sweeps Wisconsin
-Minnesota sweeps Oho State
-Rensselaer is swept by Clarkson
-Harvard sweeps Brown
-Northeastern sweeps Merrimack
-New Hampshire sweeps Connecticut
-Vermont sweeps Maine
-Denver sweeps St. Cloud State
-Bowling Green sweeps Alabama-Huntsville
some of these are part of conference playoffs and wouldn't allow for a third game so i had to go with sweeps.
If that happens this is where I have Michigan ending up based of the following scenarios
-Michigan sweeps Penn State: tied for 11th
-Michigan splits with Penn State: tied for 16th
-Michigan wins and ties (goes to shootout): 12th
-Michigan loses and ties (goes to shootut): 19th
-Michigan is swept:20th
a sweep puts them in position to actually be a 3 seed. A win on Friday night will ease concerns and leave them with a shot at an at-large. Lose Friday and and Saturday is a MUST WIN.
My Prediction: Split
3 Things Michigan needs
-a win this weekend
-Minnesota to sweep (this is actually a HUGE deal for Michigan)
-Michigan State to sweep (NEED them to move up for next weekends showdown)
To begin the season Michigan has a win over a pretty good Long Beach State team. 4 wins against awful Sienna, and one from a not very good Tennessee Tech team.
In the national picture their hitting ranks 62nd in average and has been good enough to keep them in most of their games. Pitching hasn't been as bad as the numbers indicate, but since we're so early in the season the 7 run outing against Long Beach State and 16 in two games against TTU make them look worse than they are.
Players Of Note
- Jacob Cronenworth: 1st baseman and closer. Bats leadoff, holding opponents to a .077 average with 1 hit allowed.
- Jackson Glines: The team's best hitter and leader in most stat categories. Hits the ball a lot, gets on base and is driven in more than anyone else on the team
- Cody Bruder - Carmen Benedetti: RBI leaders. Middle of the order run producers
- Keith Lehmann: Starting pitcher. 5 walks, 13 stikeouts, 2.13 ERA
- Eric Jacobson: Cleanup hitter, Michigan's only consistent bottom of the order bat.
Batting order lists most recent lineup position.
Pitchers below 3 innings not charted
At Stetson Hatters (7-5)
Tuesday, March 3rd, 6:30PM
The Hatters have played every game save one at their home field in Florida, hosting CMU, LaSalle, FIU and Penn.
Since dropping 2-of-3 to LaSalle to open the year. Stetson is 6-3 and they've been tearing the cover off the ball.
Players Of Note
- Patrick Mazeika: A .250 hitter so far this year who doesn't stike out with 12 walks, 4 home runs and has been plunked 4 times. Mazeika was an All-American two years ago as a freshman and hit .382 last season.
- Josh Powers-Vance Vizcaino: Leading run producers, high average hitters
- Kevin Fagan: Hitting .288 with 9 batted in. Freshman All-American in 2013
- Brooks Wilson: 4-0 record as a starter, 2.76 ERA.
Friday, March 6th, 3:00pm
I know nothing about this team because they have had 5 games cancelled and 2 postponed. UMBC plays in the America East conference and has finished at or near the bottom for the last 5 years.
Saturday, March 7th, 11:00AM
The Rockets have played like your average midwest team trekking through the south. Their pitching staff gave up 33 runs in 3 games to start the season, then 11 against Winthrop, 9 to open their series against VT and another 9 to finish it. They haven't particularly hit well either.
Players Of Note
- AJ Montoya - Ryan Callahan - Matt Hansen - John Martillotta
All four players have 4 RBI, which is the most on the team.
Coastal Carolina (7-4)
Saturday, March 7th, 3:00PM
The tournament host, CCU has wins over Georgia Tech, NC State and an assortment of northern teams. Bad losses to Kent State, Illinois and Canisius. They can hit but stikeout a lot. Pitching has been shaky.
Players Of Note
- Connor Owings: A .351 hitter on the year with 10 batted in, 2 home runs and 8 walks. 1st Team All-Big South a year ago.
- Anthony Marks: Team leader in OBP (.487), 7 RBI, .295 average
- Michael Paez: Low average hitter. Leads the team in runs scored (10) and in doubles (5). 7 RBI.
- Alex Cunningham: Coming off elbow surgery, has started 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA. 17 strikeouts, 5 walks, holding batters to a .185 average.
Sunday, March 8th, 11:00AM
The Zips aren't off to a bad start. They took 2-of-3 from Furman and 2-of-3 from Charlotte, before going 1-of-3 at the Mercer Baseball Classic with a win over Belmont and losses to Notre Dame and Mercer.
They started the season hitting well but have cooled off. Pitching is alright.
Players Of Note
- Dom Iero: .313 hitter with more RBI than hits, .400 OBP
- Daulton Mosbarger: Hitting .303 with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 8 batted in. Leads the team in walks (6) and OBP (.439)
- Jon Pusateri: Lowest ERA of the Akron starters with a 3.00, 9 strikeouts, 3 walks in 15.0 innings thrown.
Last week went about as well as you can hope for as a Michigan fan looking for some positivity regarding an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney. As discussed in last week's diary, Michigan is in a dog fight for one of the last at-large bids into the NCAA hockey tourney if they do not win the B1G Tournament, the victor of which gets an auto-bid.
Again, as detailed last week, the Pairwise Rankings (PWR) are your Harry Potter-esque sorting hat for entrance into the NCAA tournament. PWR, in basic terms, compares every team in Div-I hockey against each other based on three factors: RPI (a computer metric taking into account your record, winning % of your team, your opponents, and your opponents' opponents- bonus points are awarded for wins against Top 20 opponents and road wins), record against common opponents, and head to head record. This then gives each team a PWR "score" or how many of those indiviudal bi-lateral PWR comparisons a team has an advantage in.
The tournament accepts 16 teams: autobid conference tournament champions from Hockey East, ECAC, Atlantic Hockey, B1G, WCHA, and NCHC; at-large bids from the remaining top PWR teams until a 16 team field is created. Many many moons ago, ECAC and the predecessor to Atlantic Hockey were considered "bid stealers" since non-regular season champions of their tournaments were typically well outside the at-large bid range in PWR but thee regular season champ would still get an at-large bid because of a ridiculously high PWR. This year (and frankly the last couple), only Atlantic Hockey is a bid stealer conference-- and even then, since their regular season champ is already still low in the PWR (Robert Morris, 25th), if a team not named Robert Morris wins their tournament for the auto-bid, the conference is still only getting in one team. Consider the Atlantic Hockey autobid as slot #16 in the NCAA tournament-- so for practical purposes, there are at most 10 at-large slots left. At minimum, the last at-large team will be the 15th slot in PWR; at worst, 12-13 could be the cut-off line.
In Michigan's case, they sit tied for 15th with UMass-Lowell with 44 comparisons won. Ultimate tiebreaker between two teams tied in PWR is RPI, and Michigan leads here by a slim margin. The relevent teams around us in PWR as of Monday:
TEAM, PWR SCORE (UMich centric), RPI, comparisons won vs. Michigan
11. Minnesota, 2-4, .5435, RPI/Common opponents (tied 2-2 in head to head)
12. Quinnipiac, 1-1, .5481, RPI (overall comparison to Quinnipiac since RPI is higher)
13. Yale, 0-1, .5433, RPI (tied in common opponents)
14. Bowling Green, 0-2, .5407, RPI / Common opponents
15. Michigan, RPI = .5404
16. UMass-Lowell, 2-1, .5394, Common opponents (Mich won head to head & RPI)
17. St Cloud St Fighting Mollies, 1-0, .5369
18. Colgate, 2-0, .5339, (Mich wins RPI & common opponents)
19. Vermont, 2-0, .5357 (Mich wins RPI & common opponents)
Ok, first caveat: PWR is very volatile in this grouping. Every team from 14-19 is basically within one weekend of each other in RPI, and one RPI flip can shuffle standings around significantly. Second caveat: Atlantic, ECAC and Hockey East start their tournaments this weekend, so some teams like Vermont are on life support, and other teams like Colgate, UM-L, Yale, and Quinnipiac may only have 1 more game left before Selection Sunday.
- I'm surprised how well Michigan is positioned for an at-large. We essentially sit in the last at-large slot now if chalk holds in conference tourneys, and with a 4-0 finish to the regular season we probably can absorb a loss in the BTT semi and still get in as the 13 or 14 slot. We finish 4-0/3-1 in the regular season and lose in the BTT finals, we're challenging for a 3-seed. We finish 4-0/3-1 in the regular season and win the BTT, we're a high 3 seed no doubt.
- This next weekend against Penn St will bascially tell us our tourney fate. We win both, we're probably in good position for an at-large team barring a sweep by MSU. We split, we need a sweep against Sparty to keep at-large hopes alive. We drop both against PSU, we're sweating bullets and probably at a win-to-get-in situation in the BTT.
- Minnesota is probably in no matter what barring a complete collapse the next two weekends. They may slip from a 3 to a 4 seed, but they're probably feeling safe if they sweep this weekend.
- We are within a 1 game difference of flipping RPI with Bowling Green. Getting into the 14 slot at least is a HUGE difference. Atlantic Hockey has already killed the 16 slot as an at-large bid this year. As I mentioned in a comment to another post this weekend, a non-regular season champ in the tourney from an ECAC, Hockey East, or NCHC school probably isn't a game killer since they have so many teams in the running above us in PWR now anyway, unless its a true Cinderella (team in the mid 20's in PWR) making a run. Even then, they're probably knocking out a team from their own conference who's in the 13-19 PWR slot now.
- There's an interesting scenario developing though where you could possibly get 3 B1G teams in, as crappy as the conference is. You'd need: (1) Michigan and Minnesota to sweep out the regular season keeping Minnesota as a border 2/3 seed team in PWR going into the BTT. (2) Minnesota would lose in a semi. Pick your team, it doesn't matter. (3) Michigan would need to get to the BTT Finals and then lose to the team Minnesota dropped a semi to. This would possibley cause: (A) MSU/PSU/OSU/Wiscy to get an auto-bid as a 4-seed, (B) Minnesota would dropoff a 2 line to a 3 or 4 seed, and (C) Michigan would slip in as one of the last two at-large teams.
- You could also have the converse though where the B1G regular season champs don't make the NCAA tourney if say Michigan and Minnesota played mediocre hockey to close out the season with Michigan winning the conference by a game or tie-breakers and then losing a semi-final or final to a cinderella B1G team, essentially getting its at-large bid stolen by the B1G tourney champ. On paper if you said the conference regular season champ of a league with Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan St didn't get a NCAA tourney bid 4 years ago, Jim Delaney would have choked on his ham sandwich. But such is life in the B1G Hockey.
I'll leave the results from last week and this week's cheering primer to Canadian, who I'm sure will be chipping with his part in a day or so. SPOILER ALERT-- Cheer, cheer for Ol'... ALABAMA-HUNTSVILLE????
For 21 years, this car won about 80% of its races. Nobody in Michigan could beat it, and it stood toe to toe with the best car from the worst state ever. Never once did Bo cut corners or try to cheat. He took pride in running a fair race. Not even two heart attacks could keep Bo away from his car.
Alas, it was time for someone else to take the wheel. Bo had driven the car as hard and as long as he could. He would still come around the garage every now and again, but he was giving the car to his brother, Gary.
Gary drove the car for a few years. He made a couple tweaks here and there, but for the most part, kept the car original and in tip top shape. He even added a "Best in Show" Award at a national event in 1991. Sadly, Gary got busted for a DUI one night and was forced to reluctantly sign over the title to the car. Bo's other brother, Lloyd, was now the owner of the family's prized possession.
It took a few years for Lloyd to grasp all that went into owning a car with such a proud tradition, but he finally did. In 1997, he won 'em all. Every race the car entered, it took the checkered flag, including the big race in Pasadena. That race was a nailbiter, right to the very end. It looked like the other car, a Cougar, might pull off the upset but it slipped its wheels and never made it to the finish line. Victory was Lloyd's and the 1969 Camaro was THE best car in the country.
For another 10 years Lloyd took care of the car but couldn't quite capture its past glory. Blemishes started to appear on the body, under the hood, and in the interior. The engine missed a few times, a rust spot developed in the quarter panel, and there was a tear in the console. These were small issues, but ones that could turn into major concerns if not addressed immediately. Lloyd loved that car but he wanted to do other things. He had been around the car almost from the time it was bought new. He was ready to walk away and let someone else take over. There were no other brothers to pass the car on to, so Lloyd put it up for sale.
A few guys looked but there were no takers. Finally, a guy from West Virginia named Rich flew up to Ann Arbor, checked the car out, and bought it on sight. He never even took it for a test drive. This guy was used to driving tuner cars. He'd never had a muscle car before, and he was going to do something radical: take this American Classic, which had been so successful for so long, and turn it into a drift car. He replaced the Holley carbs with fuel injection. The chrome wheels with raised white letter Goodyears were replaced with aluminum alloys and low-profile Yokohamas. The cowl induction steel hood was exchanged for a carbon fiber version that was lighter. He stripped everything out of the car that was considered dead weight in exchange for parts that were made of new-age material that would help the car run faster. It was a difficult and expensive transformation. A lot of races were lost as Rich waited for new parts to arrive. Unfortunately, some parts weren't available and Rich's mechanics couldn't manufacture their own. Folks who had watched this car race for nearly 40 years were disgruntled and angry. They wrote articles in Muscle Car Magazine about the fall of the once proud Camaro. Rich started winning a few more races, but after 3 years, it wasn't enough and Rich was forced to sell.
The new buyer was a guy who grew up watching the Camaro run in Ohio. He was even part of the crew for a little while during its run in 97. He was a big fan of the original muscle car and was stunned to learn that he could buy it. He damn near walked from his house to buy it. His plan was to restore it to its original glory. He wanted everything back the way it was. Unfortunately, as much of a fan as he was, he really didn't have experience restoring cars. He could do the bolt-on stuff - change the wheels back, slap on the carbs, bolt on the old hood - but he wasn't a qualified technician, and neither were he mechanics. They had no experience with dynomometers and other computer technology that could help them fine tune the engine. They wrenched on it themselves, slapped back a couple beers in the garage, and waxed the hell of out the paint that was blistering underneath. The car had success early on, but over the next 3 years, it would lose more and more races. The once promising restoration project was now stalled and going no where.
There was one buyer that everyone hoped would step up to the plate. He was Bo's son, Jim. He'd been around cars his whole life and grew up handing his dad wrenches and washing the car as a kid. He learned how to drive and eventually sat behind the wheel for Bo, winning a lot of races. He got so good he went on to have a successful pro career. After he was done driving, he joined a couple crews around the country to learn all he could about power and speed and handling. He started with old beaters that barely ran and turned them into competitors. He moved up from street racing, to the local tracks, and all the way to the pro circuit. He quickly became the most sought after crew chief in all of racing. People back in Michigan wanted Jim to come home in the worst way possible, but word around the racing world was that he'd never leave the pros. He was married to a lady who wanted to stay out west, and other pro teams were willing to pay him more. His kids were native Californians. There was no way, they said.
As we know now, Jim DID want to own that car. It had been a dream of his since he was a little boy. He had worked his way up the circuit in hopes of one day purchasing the car his dad once proudly owned.
Jim knows this car like the back of his hand. He's hired mechanics he's worked with before and who have experience rebuilding muscle cars. This will be a frame-off restoration. Every last bolt, gasket, belt, and hose will be taken off and repaired or replaced. If they can't find a stock replacement, they'll fabricate one themselves. They have computers, gauges, and testing equipment to make sure every single part can eek out another mile per hour. They are aiming for the holy grail of muscle cars: 1000 horsepower. It's going to take a reinforced frame, beefier suspension, oversized cam, tungsten steel push rods, a huge blower to get more air into a brand new engine block machined from a solid piece of aluminum. It won't happen overnight. Some parts just won't hold up to the pressure. Some of them will crack along the way. They'll lose some races, but from every loss another answer will be revealed about how they can get just 1% better.
I think we all know that recruiting rankings improved under Hoke and that we finally have some more experienced depth. I thought, however, it might be helpful to lay out the presumed depth chart with the corresponding 247 Composite ratings. What it shows is that we finally have a roster full of experienced talent that we were used to in the 90's and early 2000's.
247's rating system basically breaks down as follows:
98 and above = 5 star.
89-97 =4 star
82-88 = 3 star.
I like the numerical ratings more than the straight stars because you can get a better sense if someone is a generic three star or someone closer to a 4 star, etc. I rounded the numbers after the decimal point.
Obviously, the depth chart will change a bit after the spring and some players may move positions, but this gives a good sense of the talent on the roster.
|POSITION||1ST TEAM||2ND TEAM||3RD TEAM|
|QB||Morris (97)||Speight (87)||Malzone (90)|
|RB||Green (99)||Isaac (97)||Smith (92)|
|FB/HB||Kerridge (NR)||Houma (86)||Shalman (90)|
|WR1||Darboh (91)||Ways (87)||Cole (96)|
|WR2||Chessun (86)||Harris (97)||Jones (85)|
|SLOT||Norfleet (92)||Canteen (89)||Dever (NR)|
|TE||Butt (93)||Bunting (89)||Williams (89)|
|OT||Braden (88)||LTT (93)||Newsome (90)|
|OG||Kalis (97)||Fox (95)||Samuelson (88)|
|C||Miller (85)||Kugler (97)||Runyan (84)|
|OG||Glasgow (NR)||Dawson (95)||Bars (86)|
|OT||Cole (94)||Magnuson (96)||Bushell-Beaty (90)|
|DE||Charlton (94)||Strobel (92)||Poggi (94)|
|DT||Glasgow (NR)||Wormley (94)||Hurst (90)|
|DT||Henry (84)||Mone (94)||Pipkins (97)|
|DE||Ojemudia (91)||Marshall (93)||Johnson (89)|
|SLB||Bolden (96)||McCray (94)||Gant (85)|
|MLB||Morgan (83)||Gedeon (91)||Furbush (87)|
|WLB||Ross (95)||Jenkins-Stone (94)||
|CB||Lyons (95)||Countess (93)||Dawson (85)|
|FS||Wilson (91)||Clark (87)||Kinnel (92)|
|SS||Peppers (100)||Hill (90)||Thomas (97)|
|CB||Lewis (95)||Stribling (86)||Watson (85)|
|87 or above||16/24||20/24||16/24|
Of course stars are not a gaurantee of individual performance, and we have seen a lot of guys on our roster play above or below their ratings, but on the whole the ratings provide a decent measure of the overall talent on the roster.
We now have a ton of 4 stars and high three stars in the three deep, many of whom have game experience and/or years in the program. I don't see one freshman in the 2-deep at this point unless Malzone or Cole really impresses this spring.
I fully expect this staff to start developing the talent this year and next. Hopefully the results on the field will bear that out.