Diaries

To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;

 

I hate Henri the Otter of Ennui.

For me, losing hurts. Watching Ezeh bite on a Juice Williams ninja fake hurts. Getting run over by Wisconsin hurts. Getting run around by Purdue hurts. Coming up just short after outplaying Iowa, having a win in East Lansing slip out of our grasps after a tantalizing tie, getting out-coached and out-executed by Penn State: these things hurt.

Henri can turn himself off. He can be blasé about such things. I can’t. I hate Henri for that.

Here’s some things that I seriously thought today:

1. “Maybe it’s because I’ve been wearing maize each week.”
2. “When have the holders of conventional wisdom ever had to prove themselves?”
3. “Is RR just a fantastic offensive or Big East coach promoted beyond his capabilities?”
4. “What is the percent chance that RR brings Michigan back to the top of the Big Ten, and what is the percent chance that it could happen under, say, Jim Harbaugh?”
5. “Maybe we should just shut down the football program altogether and concentrate on being a hockey monster.”
6. “But then we wouldn’t have Barwis.”
7. “eee”
8. “What have I done to deserve this?”

Because unlike Henri the Otter of Ennui I am incapable of shutting down my feelings, after losses, I grieve. This is part of the grieving process for me: questioning all that is given, thinking the thing that hasn’t been thought for awhile. To quote Dunder Mifflen Paper Co. Regional Manager Michael Scott, “there is such a thing as good grief; just ask Charlie Brown.”

I have tried several ways of dealing with post-loss grief this year, none of which have really done the trick. The best – but least repeatable – method was to go late-season lake perch fishing, catch almost 30 perch and a handful of smallmouth bass, race back home, and throw the still-twitching perch in a frying pan and gorge, all the while lashing out at snarky Spartan family members.

I also tried zoning out to Law & Order reruns with my head in Misopogal’s lap (although this had the probably foreseeable outcome of receiving an assessment on my need for a haircut). I tried drinking copious amounts of whiskey and losing $25.00 to friends who are better at poker than I am. I tried sitting in a grumpy corner during a weekend-long in-law family event, eyeing the guitar case in the corner that would allow me to belt out my sorrows between Beatles, Simon & Garfunkel, and Bob Dylan songs, and avoiding eye contact with Misopogal, who has a strict No-Belting-Out-Beatles, Simon & Garfunkel, and Bob Dylan Songs-During-Events-With-Her-Side-of-the-Family policy. And I tried sucking back Boddingtons and Stilton Fries in the window seat of Ashley’s while watching the throngs of maize-clad disappointment and waxing half-hearted existentialism with my best friend.

All of these are cathartic in their way. Some got me very full. Some got me very drunk. Some finally got me into the barber shop. But I’m running out of new and exciting coping mechanisms. So my latest is going on MGoBlog with a bevy of stupid questions, which I go on to answer at length using Hamlet and Charlie Brown and The Office and buried Infinite Jest references, i.e. logorrhea.

1. “Maybe it’s because I’ve been wearing maize each week.”

I’m a Johnny-Come-Lately to the whole ‘Maize-Out’ thing. I started wearing maize on Football Saturdays last year. We started really really sucking last year.

This should not be taken for a causal relationship. Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc. Moving on.

2. “When have the holders of conventional wisdom ever had to prove themselves?”

C.S. Lewis had this theory (actually it was more of a mourning observation) that there is no such thing today as a fair argument. There is no right or wrong anymore. Rather, in any disagreement, there is one side that is popular, and another side that is unpopular. The side that is unpopular has the burden of proof, and must argue with perfect clarity. The side that is popular – whether it is right or wrong – is best served by arguing with platitudes and rhetorical tricks. The only way they could possibly lose is actually have a fair argument, therefore a fair argument should be avoided at all costs.

The sports radio you can get in your car in Detroit is all platitudes. It’s also All-Fire-Rich-Rod-All-the-Time these days. Unfortunately, I finished my last CD-on-Tape (a biography of C.S. Lewis) last week and have little else to listen to in the car when stuck in construction-abetted gridlock, and I can’t stand Jim Rome because that guy is more in need of an ass-whopping than any man in history, so I end up listening for like five minutes to Mike Valenti (MSU brah!) and Terry Foster (Drew Sharp Lite) until I’m literally pounding my fists on the dashboard.

This is where having Misopogal around is incredibly important for me, because she knows how to use an Adam Sandler movie quote to make me realize how little it really matters what, say, Mike Valenti or Sean Hannity or those douche bags who say “Unacceptable” while walking out of Michigan Stadium have to say.* I won’t attempt to do her justice on here. Suffice to say that if everyone was as fair and open-minded and good at listening as my fiancé, well, she wouldn’t be as remarkable. People have strong biases and much prefer hearing that they’re right to seeking truths, and if you let this bother you, you will end up a grumpy old Oxfordian who’s as insufferable to others as others are to you.

Fuck Sean Hannity. Fuck Bill Maher. Fuck Mike Valenti and Terry Foster. All they do is reinforce opinions that weren’t going to change anyway. Those who make the important decisions don’t listen to these fucks. I seriously doubt that Mary Sue Coleman and Bill Martin and Bill Martin’s replacement are the type of folk to let Valenti and Foster talk them into felo-de-se.

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* “Well, I have a microphone and you don't, so you will listen to every damn word I have to say!”

-The Wedding Singer

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3. “Is RR just a fantastic offensive or Big East coach promoted beyond his capabilities?”

From Wikipedia:

The Peter Principle … holds that in a hierarchy, members are promoted so long as they work competently. Sooner or later they are promoted to a position at which they are no longer competent (their "level of incompetence"), and there they remain, being unable to earn further promotions … Peter's Corollary states that "in time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out his duties" and adds that "work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their level of incompetence".

Dunder Mifflen’s Michael Scott is the modern paradigm of the Peter Principle. The character was a fantastic salesman because of his everyman charm, * which earned him a promotion to Regional Manager, his spectacular incompetence at which provides the majority of the show’s humor.

The way you avoid the Peter Principle in your own hierarchy is to judge candidates on whether they show the skills required of the higher job.

I think you can make a great Peter Principle case for Charlie Weiss. I don’t think you have as much of a case with Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez built a national power in West Fucking Virginia. While the Big East is not as on-par with the Big Ten as whatever the SEC version of Sean Hannity is would like you to believe, neither is it that huge of a jump to go from head coach at a Big East school to head coach at a Big Ten school.

I said you don’t have as much of a case. But there is a case. Because Michigan really isn’t “just a Big Ten school.” Michigan is to the Big Ten what Texas is to the Big XII, or Florida State is to the ACC. Wherever you draw the arbitrary line of where college football history doesn’t matter anymore, Michigan is still one of the top programs in a sport that functionally rewards top programs more than any other.

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* In my biz we call these guys “handshake guys” – they are not necessarily bright, nor do they even know the real value of what they’re selling, but they interface very well with clients’ handshake guys, with whom they form handshake-guy bonds that generate a ton of inexplicable sales.

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There are parts of this job that require much more than a successful Big East coach needs to be successful:

• Winning nationally recognized rivalry games
• Handling a huge amount of media pressure
• Recruiting athletes from anywhere in the country who are coveted by every program in the country
• Placating egos of 21-year-olds with assured NFL futures
• Winning in horrible weather
• Out-coaching guys who are a lock for the coaching Hall of Fame
• Winning when things go against you
• Winning when you are the biggest game of the year for every team you face.

Some of these things we can assess. Others are way too early. I will make a stab at each, with regard to Rich Rod, but include percentages after each to tell you how sure I am of my assessment:

Winning nationally recognized rivalry games.

I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to get a nervous, John Cooper-esque feeling (not helped by the smartest sports guy in my office saying this all the time), that RR doesn’t “get” rivalries. What I mean by that is mostly that he doesn’t know how to blow enough smoke up everyone’s asses about rivalries.*

There is a “it’s basically a football game” attitude that engineers can appreciate, but which makes us LSA folk whinge. I’m starting to think that RR falls in that engineer category, which makes sense since he is widely considered (by the considerably small group of people who actually consider things) to be one of the best football engineering minds in the game. What engineers don’t realize, but LSA folk seem to understand intuitively, is that if you blow enough smoke about something, you can convince yourself and others that it is true, and then your brain can make it come true, and it actually does become true.

There is no good physical explanation for how Bo writing 50** all over the place in 1969 led to a huge upset over Ohio State, or why Bo was able to build off that win to establish a dynasty that lasted almost 40 years. You engineering folk are just gonna have to trust us wussy-ass liberal artfarts on this: for the head coach of Michigan, beating Ohio State matters more than any two wins anywhere on the schedule. And part of the way you beat Ohio State is to be more irrational about beating Ohio State than Ohio State is about beating Michigan. I believe this. I don’t think Rich Rod believes this. 60 percent.

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* This was the subject of a recent bout of existentialist post-(Purdue) loss grief therapy in the window of Ashley’s.

** i.e. the amount of points the 1968 Buckeyes put up on Michigan.

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Handling a huge amount of media pressure.

This is one of the few jobs in the United States that is conducted in a national fishbowl. People know who’s coaching Michigan like they know who the Vice President is. RR came in with a more open, aw-shucks, honest approach than Lloyd's "Eat the crags in my face, bitches" answer.

The local media's response was to eat him alive.

In media, as in football, those who are in the room for the big stuff are those who have already managed to succeed in the highly competitive, dog-eat-dog industry we work in. The problem with a room full of carnivorous survivors is that predators can't resist weakness (or, like me, find other, less-competitive niches to exploit).

We journalists are as incapable of coming up with a mutually beneficial relationship with a public figure as a bear is incapable of independently coming to a working relationship with a Salmon population. Since the early days, RR has adapted, and adapted very quickly.

Until taking a job like this, there is really no way of assessing how a person will do in it. Think of how many promising politicians have flamed out in the first month of a presidential campaign.

Nobody does well at first. When you enter the fishbowl, you either have the stones to handle it, or you don't. At this point – and it's still early – it is my professional opinion that Rich Rodriguez does absolutely have the cojones to hang in. It may be he'll lose it after a few more years, but I think at this point that is pretty doubtful. We are lucky as all hell because this is a very rare trait, but this is a guy who has been put through the worst we can dish out, often, and early, and come through. I think RR can handle the media. It won't ever be, like Obama-level graceful, but in his own clunky way, this guy's got it. 70 percent.

Recruiting athletes from anywhere in the country who are coveted by every program in the country.

If there's a place on Rich Rodriguez's resume that was cause for concern, this was it. Granted, it's hard to get anyone with an opportunity to go somewhere else to live in Morgantown, W.Va., for four or so years. But RR's teams, wherever he has gone, have been explicitly built with "his" kinds of guys.

This isn't someone who can go in and win with other guys' players, as has been demonstrated so thoroughly by our underperformance of talent the past two years.* The thing is, the real blue chip high school talent pool is small and therefore not so varied. What I mean is that RR won at West Virginia and Clemson and Tulane by taking his hand-picked 3-star guys against someone else's base sample of 3-star guys.

You don't get to hand-pick so much with the smaller 4- and 5-star talent pools. There aren't four 5-star ninja slot guys every year – rather, you get like one national Percy Harvin or Reggie Bush once every four years. This creates a recruiting disadvantage for RR as opposed to Lloyd, whose M.O. was that any 4-star receiver can come here and head to the NFL. As Brian has pointed out, the dynamics of his system will result in lower-rated classes (if much higher than West Virginia).

Even if the system more than makes up for that, this has an unfortunate corollary, in that our rivals (e.g. Ohio State, Notre Dame, USC), get to mop up on what we don't make a play for. There's a limit to what you can do, recruiting-wise, with a system-based program. Just as Beilein probably can never be MSU, I get the feeling that Rich Rod can never be USC. If he's winning just as much, I don't give a damn, but it does leave the door open for USC to be USC, and Ohio State to be Ohio State.

Of course, we may never find out. Early returns are not good. RR went head-to-head with Ohio State for perfect-for-our-system athlete Terrell Pryor, and lost out because Pryor thought the Buckeyes would make him a better pro. That this was a bad decision by Pryor is pretty much not in dispute (Hannityism nonwithstanding). It says something that RR went all-out for a recruit who was clearly better off at Michigan and lost him. However, at this point you can't knock RR too much – there is more evidence that Pryor is a bad decision-maker than there is for RR not being able to be a player in the blue chip recruit market. Seantrel Henderson, 2010's uber recruit, had Michigan a top consideration until the bottom fell out of our season. Until we see Rich Rod recruit with a 10-3 bowl win, we won't really know. 35 percent 

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* This is the subject of a future blog that I'm working on, but basically he won 3 games with a 5-win talent level last year, and is on pace for 5 wins with a 7-win group of talent this year. These are both within the margin of error, but as I'll show in that future blog, Lloyd almost never (2005 was the lone exception) came more than a game under expectation, and twice at the bottom of the margin of error is not a good sign. For now, you're just gonna have to trust me.

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Placating egos of 21-year-olds with assured NFL futures

.

So far, obviously not a problem. Nuff said. 35 percent.

Winning in horrible weather

I know I'm chancing a visit from Captain Obvious here, but Michigan is in Michigan. September in Ann Arbor is perfect for a wedding (keep your fingers crossed for me), but playing games in Ann Arbor, and Columbus, and Chicagoland, and Madison, and Minneapolis, yada yada in October and November is just crying for chill, rain, wind, sleet, snow, hail, and of course the State of Michigan's specialty, chillrainsleetwindsnowhail.

Is it all that different, weather-wise, than the Big East? I'm led to believe it is, though not like the difference between Big Ten and SEC.

Does it affect Rich Rod's teams more than other teams? Well, doesn't it kind of look like it so far?

Again, we are in small sample territory here. But I'm starting to think that weather and the spread-n-shred are not good buddies. On pretty days, we have shredded. On crummy days, we have been shredded. On surface observation, when it rains on us, it pours.

Shitty weather is bad for any offense, e.g. 2007 Michigan/Ohio State. The reason I think it hurts us more is that our whole offensive concept is to get ninja buggers in space who then make guys miss. When the ball becomes slick and uncatchable, that limits the places we can go with it, which is counter to the spread's philosophy of keeping everything an optional point-of-attack. When the ground becomes un-maneuverable, that neutralizes a team that tries to beat you by having guys who make sharper cuts.

The last two years we have gotten worse as the season progressed. Michigan State has gotten better late in the year. Is this because we are more subject to the weather? I don't know. I can only muse. 5 percent.

Out-coaching guys who are a lock for the coaching Hall of Fame

That Penn State game pissed me off. I thought they looked better prepared for us than we were for them. And we were the guys who got a week against a sacrificial lamb to prepare. We were at home. This is all crap you could hear on the radio and means nothing.

Was it getting out-coached? Brian had this to say in UFR's new "RPS" metric:

RPS     6    13   -7        Robinson got pwned.

That's on GERG, not Rich Rodriguez. There's more to it than that, but yes, we've been getting out-coached a bit this year, and not just from Joe Paterno. In the Michigan State games of this year and last, Dantonio took personal command of his defenses and had game plans that were as close to perfect against RR as you can come up with.

Other than that, though, the offense has been conceptually better than everyone else we've faced – execution by the young and talent-deficient has been the O's biggest problem.

On defense, like woah.

One thing that I think most any college football fan is incapable of doing is having a completely realistic view of their own head coach. So long as that coach is your coach, you are married, so either you're doing whatever you can to make the relationship work, or you're in the process of destroying the whole thing. So let's look back and see what Michigan fans thought of Rich Rodriguez before "Head Coach of the University of Michigan Football Team" was one of his accolades (from Maize n Brew, 12/10/2007 (emphasis mine)):

Positives - Excellent recruiter. Excellent in game coach. Runs a clean program (as far as we know). Seemingly a good guy who would fit into the mantra of a "Michigan Man." Recruits awesomely, awesomely named players.

Negatives - Loss to the Wannstache with a MNC berth on the line. Seriously. That's a significant negative. His players have an uncanny ability to fumble at the worst possible times. Defensive has never been the strongest tool in the utility belt and the Mountaineers generally have to outscore their opponents to win ball games. Limited ties to the Midwest and no ties to Michigan. May benefit from coaching in a weak conference.

So there really there is nothing before Rich Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor, nor anything since, to suggest that he's even an average defensive coach. RR relies on his defensive coordinators to handle that.

At Michigan, his first DC hire was a total, fired-after-first-year flameout, which set back our defensive development by at least a year. His second? I don't know. GERG is in his first year, and has unheard-of depth problems and talent deficiencies. He's also getting pwned in Rock, Paper, Scissors by the Galen Hall and the Spread HD.

It could just be that Jay Hopson sucks. That's been kind of the unofficial premise around here. But I'm also looking at a weak 2008 defensive class, and a 2009 defensive class that didn't go balls-out on defensive backs when balls-out on DBs was like more necessary than any time in recent history. It's too early, but early returns say that Rich Rodriguez is and probably never will be a good defensive coach, and that this puts him at a disadvantage to guys like Paterno, Dantonio, and Bielema in recruiting and developing that side of the ball.

Even if RR had the best DC in the game, not being a defensive guy, in my opinion, will always hurt him. There's a huge difference between the man at the top having every faculty, and the man at the top having to trust his lieutenants.

MnB's Madden-esque way of saying this was "generally have to outscore their opponents to win ball games." Well, you actually ALWAYS have to outscore opponents to win ball games (not counting "Moral Victories," Lions fans). But it might be fair to say that Rodriguez's Michigan teams will have to be extraordinarily successful offensively, because the defense isn't going to win games himself. 40 percent.

Winning when things go against you

This is easy. Basically, if you want to win despite random, no-fault turnovers, and crappy officiating, and Michigan-X-Hating-Gods, etc., then you have to not just be better than other teams but be WAY better and WAY deeper than other teams.

That takes time. And luxury. At this moment, we have neither.

The other thing is attitude. This is another one of those things that engineers don't appreciate, and the poetic know but don't understand. Again, way too early, but RR's teams are now starting to get a bit of a reputation for folding when things go against them. Illinois stands us up at the goal line: utter disaster. Purdue executes a perfect onside kick: instant long touchdown. Wisconsin basically gets gifted a turnover on a bogus roughing the kicker penalty: touchdown, fold, go home.

Of course, we're saying that about the same team that clawed its way back when overmatched against Notre Dame, roared back to tie the MSU game, and hung in there despite five turnovers against Iowa. Or if you prefer, the team that looked like a match for Ohio State in the first half last year. The thing is, when there isn't much hope, there is a performance drop on this team, particularly defensively. My guess is that it's not a lack of heart so much as guys who are normally prone to bad decisions trying to do too much. Either way, you expect the coach to be the guy getting that sort of stuff under control, and it has so far been a profound disappointment that Rich Rodriguez has not been able to do that. 35 percent.

Winning when you are the biggest game of the year for every team you face.

When is the last time you saw a reaction like that from someone who just beat a 2-6 team? Sparties still e-mail photos of the final score to each other. Srsly! I got one last week!

The reason why this is such a big deal to them is because Michigan still has that cachet.

I posited before the Penn State game that maybe we would be overlooked. One of the better Black Shoe Diaries visitors that week was incredulous. Overlook Michigan?

The point is that we don't just face opponents each week – more often than not, we are the second or first game circled on the schedule for every team we play. And that's just when we suck!

What does this have to do with anything?

It means there's more to "getting back" than just having the talent of a typical Carr team again. Maintaining Michigan's place in the standings to go along with its place in college football history means either being so good that you can take anyone's absolute best shot, or being so crazy competitive that you don't want just to win – you want to murder death kill every comer. Of the two, the second sounds easier. Since we haven't been in this situation yet, we have no idea how RR will stand. 0 percent.

4. “What is the percent chance that RR brings Michigan back to the top of the Big Ten, and what is the percent chance that it could happen under, say, Jim Harbaugh?”

But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscover'd country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?

1. Given until 2014, pretty good. Given through 2011, pretty bad.
2. How the hell should I know? In the hypothetical of firing RR and hiring Harbaugh today, the chances are pretty slim, for reasons outlined nicely by Brian, and not nearly so nicely by the WLA.

5. “Maybe we should just shut down the football program altogether and concentrate on being a hockey monster.”

Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;

I wonder if a Northwestern fan has to go through this like every year. For me, justifying having a football program that could bring me such pain is not like something that I've ever considered.

I think losing the football program is a bad idea, and will always be a bad idea.

Let's say we weren't 5-6, but 0-11 right now. And let's say instead of Brandon Graham and Donovan Warren and Tate Forcier and Brandon Minor and Zoltan the Space Emperor et al. we had a lot of Jordan Kovacseses.

This would still be totally worth it, from the walk through the foliage, the by-far cleverest t-shirts of any fanbase, the toppled pumpkins in the streets, a stomach full of Blimpy Burger…

Ann Arbor rocks. Ann Arbor particularly rocks on Football Saturdays. Michigan Football Games would be awesome with half as good of a team as we have now.

We're rebuilding. Rebuilding looks ugly. But if you're sticking around and reading MGoStuff and putting on your M gear and Keep Coming Back, you can now imagine what this thing will look like when Big Ten Championship banners rather than pipes and cables, are hanging from the rafters.

And really, things aren't all that bad.

6. “But then we wouldn’t have Barwis.”

And thus the native hue of resolution

Do you still believe that the best-conditioned team in the land is the one most likely to win?

I do.

I'm still in.

7. “eee”

Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought

Indeed.

8. “What have I done to deserve this?”

Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio; a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy; he hath borne me on his back a thousand times; and now, how abhorred in my imagination it is! My gorge rises at it. Here hung those lips that I have kissed I know not how oft. Where be your gibes now?

That's just the thing, Prince Hamlet, this play is about vengeance, and comeuppance arrives for the jester as it does for the prince.

The thing about having a 40-year run at or near the top of college football is that we end up taking things for granted. We imposed our will upon so many 5-6 teams just crying for a bowl game – any bowl game – that we have forgotten what it feels like ourselves.

Now, I think we would make much finer winners than, say, repugnant Ohio State fans. But if we can learn anything as fans from this year, it's humility. For we have indeed been humbled.

• Michigan State, who has come so close and then self-blown so many great victories there's now a saying for it ("Sparty NO!"), got to watch Michigan come back only to snatch defeat from the hands of victory. With an OT interception in the end zone no less.
• Iowa, the team that is always in a position to win, but so often gets punished for every single tiny mistake, leaves a guy wide open for Denard Robinson that would have put Michigan in range for a game-winning field goal, and instead our freshman QB tossed an INT to a double-covered guy.
• Penn State, having held on to their coach since the '60s, finally got a win on the road in awful weather that was vintage out-coaching.
• Illinois, who spent the last three years waiting for their unheard-of collection of recruits to germinate, who walked into this year with one of the Big Ten's best offensive weapons and then inexplicably proved useless all year, finally got a signature home win.
• Purdue, the whiniest program in the country, the whoa-is-me-est guys in the Big Ten, the "we've had a spread since 1996 and all we got was this damn t-shirt" guys, got to excise demons and execute a perfect on-side field goal recovery, got refereeing even they couldn't hate, and finally stuck it to somebody.
• Wisconsin, for whom running the ball up the gut and playing hard defense against the run are practically religion, got to run the ball up the gut and play hard defense against the run, and when they had the lead and the ball at the start of the 4th quarter, they got to keep the ball for the whole 4th quarter.
It's not just that we lost these games. It's the way we lost these games. This year is like Big Ten catharsis year, with every team beating us exactly the way that we have been beating them for four decades.

Fortunately, for us, then, this whole year isn't written yet. And there's still one Big Ten game left, and they have zero karma going for them, and zero catharsis against Michigan that needs to be exercised, and they will show up in a Nike modern mockery of the uniforms they wore for their 1954 split national championship.

That's the year Michigan had them on the ropes, then couldn't punch it in, and Ohio State drove 99 yards for a touchdown. But that's already happened this year. Excised.

If there's anyone left in the Big Ten who doesn't deserve to beat Michigan, it's these guys. Karma-wise, we are cleansed. Of course, we also walk in to a fencing match with poisonous linebackers and poison-tipped Ohio State talent.

By this point, the Buckeyes have exhausted every conceivable reason to beat us. They're going to the Rose Bowl regardless of this or any other outcome. Sweatervest has won virtually every recruiting battle over Rich Rod not including a guy whose knee got blown out. They're not in front of their fans. The lifetime record against Michigan for Tressell is not in doubt. Mike Hart's and Chad Henne's and Jake Long's careers have been left unavenged, as has Bo Schembechler's death. Consecutive wins over Penn State and Iowa have Pryor back in the fanbase's good graces, and OSU back atop the Big Ten, ready to once again blow the conference's reputation with a half-hearted BCS blowout. And as for fanbases generating goodwill, though there be plenty of kind Buckeyes about the world, you will never in college football find such a wretched hive of scum and villainy.

To come out of this game with a win would take a miracle, the kind of miracle which around here you can build a 40-year dynasty upon. I don't know if it's possible, or if Rich Rod will ever really have the team to beat those guys. But I know that our guys have gone through coaching changes and Barwisizing and hellish officiating and hellish game conditions, and every other hell you can throw at a football program that still has more wins than any other. So I know this: we deserve it more.

Not the world is particularly fair.

And enterprises of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.

EDIT:: entry updated with BCS ranking information. Not too much to change.

Now with the BCS rankings, we run down the possible BCS setup...

10 BCS slots, 6 autobids, 4 at large

Autobids (assumptions listed in parenthesis, * for clinched)


ACC: Ga Tech (win ACC championship)
Big 10: OSU*
Big 12: Texas (win Big 12 championship, stay undefeated)
Big East: Cincinnati (finish undefeated)
Pac-10: Toss-up (discussed below)
SEC: Florida (winout)

So the only team that's in for sure right now is tOSU and they're going to the Rose Bowl against the Pac-10's only representative (Oregon, USC or Stanford). More on the Pac-10 later....

At-Large Slots (my guesses)
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1) Alabama (loss to Fla only blemish)
2) TCU (undefeated, stays in top 8 of BCS standings for autobid)
3) ???
4) ???

The Florida / Alabama loser is going to get the #1 at-large slot. TCU at 12-0 is a lock for a 2nd at-large and maybe a nat'l title shot jumping Cincy. Now it gets confusing, let's list the rest of the eligible teams for at-large slots from the Top 18 in the BCS standings (LSU not counted since 2 SEC teams are already in)...

Contenders: 12-0 Boise St, 10-2 Ok St, 10-2 Pitt, 10-2 Iowa, 10-2 Penn St, 9-3 VaTech, 10-2 Wisconsin, 9-3 Stanford, 9-3 USC, 9-3 Miami (YTM)

If Boise St stays in the Top 8 and undefeated, with their competition being a flurry of not just 1-loss teams, but 2-loss teams, I don't see how they can be left out at this point. This is the "Year of the Little Guy" in college football and I see the Powers That Be formalizing that with a Boise St at-large bid. For the fourth slot, I think it's  a matter of the specific bowl game again.... Per the BCS rules, with Florida and Texas in the championship, the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls  get first pick from at-large teams. Bama in the Sugar is a slam dunk as a SEC replacement for Florida. I think Fiesta takes TCU with their Dallas/ Ft Worth area fan base. Orange Bowl is next. I think they take an undefeated Cincy. So then we have:

BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v ???
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. ???

So we now have two at-large slots. Fiesta Bowl would get the first pick over Sugar since they're closest to the natl champ game in date, and I think the lure of a psuedo-natl chmp game between TCU and Boise is going to be too good to pass up, especially since Boise traveled REAL good last time they were in a BCS game. So Boise St in the Fiesta.

Sugar wants a big name team from a power conference to matchup against  Bama, and to me the choice is either  the Fightin T-Boones from OK St or a 2-loss Big Ten runner up, like Penn St/Wiscy/Iowa who travels REALLY well. I'll say Penn St over Iowa since Iowa will still be back-up QB'ing and Wiscy isn't as attractive as a JoePa led team.

So we are between a 2-loss Penn St and a 2-loss OK St. I think T-Boone greases a couple palms and gets OK St in against Bama, especially with a perceived "down" Big Ten. Giving us:

MY BEST GUESS
-------------------------------
BCS Championship:  Florida  v Texas
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Oregon / Arizona
Fiesta Bowl: TCU v Boise St (psuedo natl champ)
Orange Bowl: Ga Tech v. Cincy
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. OK St

If the Orange took lets say a 2-loss Penn St for the better TV and travel cache JoePa led Penn St brings over Cincy, I think we are then looking at the Fiesta taking Cincy for a TCU v Cincy matchup, and the Sugar, left with a Boise St v OK St v Miami (YTM) choice, may opt for a Bama v Miami (or OK St if t-Boone again starts giving out wind farm seed grants to BCS officials) matchup leaving Boise St outside looking in.

Lots of stuff still can happen. Wiscy and Penn St are playing for a BCS bid and OK St may sew one up if they can beat OU. Boise St is going to have to lay on the style points. Pitt I just don't know about.. I just don't think the Wannestache has enough pull yet to get a BCS bid over Penn St or even an undefeated Boise, so they're only hope is probably a win against Cincy.

It reads the same, week after week:  Michigan looks like they can play with anybody early, then something happens to shake their confidence, then the second half rolls over them, the end.

Bler.

With all of the mitigating circumstances, it is really no shocker that this team might have confidence issues.  This may be their biggest problem all year actually, both from a long term and short term view.  Looking from the long view: The first half of the season this team had the "moxie" required to come back in the face of adversity.  Then something happened to shake their fragile confidence.  Fellow poster Brhino has given light to this:

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/michigan-has-gone-rally-team-fall-apart-team

Vs. Notre Dame
First Half: M 17, ND 20 (-3)
Second Half: M 21, ND 14 (+7)
Michigan rallies in the second half for the win.

Vs. Indiana
First Half: M 21, IU 23 (-2)
Second Half: M 15, IU 10 (+5)
Michigan rallies in the second half for the win.

Vs. Michigan State
First Half: M 6, MSU 10 (-4)
Second Half: M 14, MSU 10 (+4)
Overtime: M 0, MSU 7 (-7)
[Second Half + Overtime]: M 14, MSU 17 (-3)
Michigan rallies to tie at end of regulation, but loses in overtime.

Vs. Iowa
First Half: M 14, Iowa 20 (-6)
Second Half: M 14, Iowa 10 (+4)
Michigan rallies in the second half but comes up just short.

The loss to Little Brother in overtime cracked the armor and the loss at Iowa finished the job  The loss to Little Brother in overtime cracked the armor and the loss at Iowa finished the job.  Surely other circumstances like losing Molk had an effect as well, but after the Iowa game this team lost that early season "Moxie" that carried them to improbable comebacks against ND and Indiana.  Each game became a microcosm of the season as a whole.  Every game Michigan comes out with its swagger back, just to have one swing play kill their confidence again.

Against Penn St: (Drive notes swiped from the Worldwide Leader)

3rd and 16 at MICH 2 - Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 0 out-of-bounds for a SAFETY.

And then the very next play...

1st and 10 at PSU 40 - Daryll Clark pass complete to Andrew Quarless for 60 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

BOOM!  Confidence shattered and lying all over the field.  Second half implosion ensues.

Against Illinois:

1st and Goal at ILL 1 -		Carlos Brown rush for no gain to the Illin 1.
2nd and Goal at ILL 1 -		Carlos Brown rush for no gain to the Illin 1.
3rd and Goal at ILL 1 -		Carlos Brown rush for no gain to the Illin 1.
4th and Goal at ILL 1 -		Brandon Minor rush for no gain to the Illin 1.

And the next drive...

1st and 10 at ILL 30 - Mikel LeShoure rush for 70 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

BOOM!  Confidence shattered and lying all over the field.  Second half implosion ensues.

Against Illinois:

2nd and 10 at MICH 32 - Tate Forcier rush for a loss of 13 yards, fumbled, forced by Brandon King, recovered by Prdue Brandon King at the Mich 19.

And the very next play...

1st and 10 at MICH 19 - Ralph Bolden rush for 19 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

BOOM!  Confidence shattered and lying all over the field.  Second half implosion ensues.

And then there was yesterday's game, which I am sure you all remember just fine thank you.  First and goal from the six leads to a blocked FG.  Third and long converted against us time after time...  Maybe no BOOM! but confidence shattering moments littered throughout leading to a second half implosion.

Maybe this is a manifestation of having a young team.  Perhaps having to start walk-ons contributes to this.  Some amount of it has to be attributed to coaching, both good and bad.  It is admirable that the coaches are able to get this team feeling good enough after each loss to have confidence going into the next game.  It is somewhat distressing that the first hint of adversity sends this team over a cliff.

FiveThings:

1. Am I the only one that was disappointed, to say the least, that we did not use our timeouts on defense during the final minutes of the first half?  Instead of having all of our timeouts with 1:09 left we could have easily had two timeouts and two full minutes left.  This seemed like terrible clock management.
2. The replay officials continue to baffle.  It sure looked like conclusive evidence that Clay was not in on the replay of Wisky's last TD of the first half.  I am ready to give up replay altogether and just live with bad calls at this point.
3. I get that the opposing defense can counter rolling Tate out to throw, but couldn't we try rolling him out anyways?  He was awesome on the plays designed to roll him out and once again getting killed in the pocket.  Here's to better protection next season.
4. Roy Roundtree and Vincent Smith are going to be incredible.  Those two put on quite a show yesterday and should hold their heads high. 
5. Should we be sad for Fat Charlie (no) or for ourselves (yes) if he is fired?   

Looking Ahead:

There is not much left of this season.  There is sure to be some adversity faced in The Game and there is not much evidence at this point that Michigan can overcome it.  Anything can happen in this rivalry, but Michigan looks to be blown out.  I, for one, will be screaming at the TV just as hard as ever and hoping against hope for strange things to happen.

Next season is an enigma.  Does Michigan have anyone on defense that can fill in and turn this ship around?  Can GERG show his worth and get what we have to improve?  The offense is going to be really, really good...  good enough to beat anyone on the schedule.  It is going to be heart wrenching to watch the defense gack up games where we score 40 points, but maybe we can at least make a bowl game.  Hopefully this team will be another year older and have found what it really needs to win.

Confidence.

Go Blue.

Find a way, any way, and beat them Buckeyes.

This is not a "fire Rodriguez" post or a "I hate everything" post.  This is simply an observation I have made and a request for discussion as to just what exactly is going on.

I noticed a trend in Michigan's performance that reversed itself completely, and I don't know what to make of it.  Observe - the following are summaries of scoring by half for Michigan's first four games against competitive opponents (Eastern, Western, and loloware state are excluded):

Vs. Notre Dame
First Half: M 17, ND 20 (-3)
Second Half: M 21, ND 14 (+7)
Michigan rallies in the second half for the win.

Vs. Indiana
First Half: M 21, IU 23 (-2)
Second Half: M 15, IU 10 (+5)
Michigan rallies in the second half for the win.

Vs. Michigan State
First Half: M 6, MSU 10 (-4)
Second Half: M 14, MSU 10 (+4)
Overtime: M 0, MSU 7 (-7)
[Second Half + Overtime]: M 14, MSU 17 (-3)
Michigan rallies to tie at end of regulation, but loses in overtime.

Vs. Iowa
First Half: M 14, Iowa 20 (-6)
Second Half: M 14, Iowa 10 (+4)
Michigan rallies in the second half but comes up just short.

Notice that, in each game, Michigan does better in the second half than it did in the first, even when taking into account overtime versus MSU.  Michigan does not always win, but they stay strong and improve in the second half.  And then, after DSU, this happens:

Vs. Penn State
First Half: M 10, PSU 19 (-9)
Second Half: M 0, PSU 16 (-16)
Michigan hangs in there for the first half, but then things get ugly.

Vs. Illinois
First Half: M 13, Ill 7 (+6)
Second Half: M 0, Ill 31 (-31)
Michigan leads at the half, but then things get ugly.

Vs. Purdue
First Half: M 24, PU 10 (+14)
Second Half: M 12, PU 28 (-16)
Michigan leads by two scores at the half, but then things get ugly.

Vs. Wisconsin
FIrst Half: M 17, W 21 (-4)
Second Half: M 7, W 24 (-17)
Michigan hangs in there for the first half, but then (say it with me now!) things... get... ugly!

What is going on here? 
I don't know.  There are a lot of reasons why one team might do better or worse in the second half of a football game.  One team might be better conditioned and the other might tire.  One team's coaches might make better adjustments to the other team's game plan.  One team might start out hyped up on adrenaline while the other team comes out flat.  The truly puzzling thing, though, is how Michigan has gone from second half rally team to a second half fall apart team, with a clean, complete, utter reversal of tendencies somewhere around mid-season.  Is it a psychological phenomenon?  Have Michigan's offensive game plan and defensive vulnerabilities been figured out to the point that any coach can, after a half game of observation, pick them apart?  Your theories are welcome.

Here we are a deep in the home stretch and it's perhaps the most dramatic weekend of the Big 10 season. Three teams  (Purdue, Indiana and Illinois) face bowl elimination games today. Three others (Michigan State, Michigan and Minnestoa) can clinch bowl eligibility, but a lose puts them in a make or break game in next week's finale. A seventh (Northwestern) wants more win because even though they already has the six required for a bowl they dont want to be part a 6-6 logjam and they'v been snubbed with that 6-6 record in the past. Oh, and, by the way, the Big 10 Championship will be decided when Iowa and Ohio State swap paint in Columbus. Rose are on the line and thats always a special day in the Big 10.

Anyway I like the matchups tomorrow. A natural rivalry with Northwestern/Illinois as both teams enter on the uptick. MSU/Purdue with bowl implications galore for both programs. Iowa's defensive line trying to take Pryor's head off. The ongoing drama that has been Michigan's season takes on Wisconsin in one of  Big 10's most underrated sereis from a classic value. Here are the picks.

Indiana at Penn State, noon, BTN. Lines, PSU -25, O/U 55.5

The greatest moment in Indiana-Penn State history took place on November 5, 1994, during the Nittany Lions first visit to Bloomington as a member of the Big 10. The Lions were smoking hot back then, in fact they were the top-ranked team in the nation at the time. Kerry Collins, Kijana Carter, Bobby Engram, Kyle Brady, Joe Jurivicious, Brandon Noble, Kim Herring. And on and on and on. This team was stacked. They beat Michigan 31-24 in Ann Arbor and dropped 63 points on Ohio State. They should show that game more often on the classic networks.

And, they pretty much rolled the Hoosiers that afternoon. They were up 21 points with the clock winding down. Then, magic happened. IU hit a long bomb for a score. Recovered on on sides kick. Scored on another long bomb. All in the span of the game's final 30 seconds, with the last TD coming as time expired. They did, however, convert a two-point attempt after that score to make the final score 35-29, with 15 points coming in the final half minute, mostly through desperation heaves into the air.

The scores didnt impact bettors as the underdog Hoosiers had already covered the number before any of those scores. But, the game had a major impact on the polls. When the votes were counted the following day, the Nittany Lions had been knocked out of the top spot. Voters now favored Nebraska in both polls and Penn State never saw the top ranking again. In a clear case of voters doing nothing more than checking the final score, Penn State was punished by a freaky series of events that turned a dominant effort into something that looked close. I was at this game. It was not close. Not in the least bit. This was gift wrapped for Nebraska. Eff You Nebraska! Every corner of you, even you Omaha. Ghey Counting Crows song.

So, one of the best teams in Big 10 history ended up slighted in the final polls. And, for Indiana, its the most relevant thing the football program has done on the national scale in the last 20 years. For that, it stands as the top moment in this series' history. Well, until the Hoosiers pull off the win next year in their home away from home in Maryland, where they do crab cakes and IU football like nobody's business.

The Pick: IU +25......Look, I'm a realist. IU is not winning this game. But, the Hoosiers have been green with profit all season, logging a 7-2 ATS mark. They've largely outplayed their opponenets this season. And, while I dont think they stand a chance in heck hanging point for point with the Lions, they enter this game confident and expecting to do well. PSU might sleep walk a bit in the early going hungover still from last week's OSU game. I think the Hoosiers get at least three scores in this one and PSU has not shown an offense that runs up the score on anyone, so that will be more than enough to keep IU within this number. I think IU's active front might cause a turnover or two out of Clark who has never looked good against teams with active, athletic ends and OLBs, which the Hoosiers have. It wont be enough to win, but enough to keep this one competitive into the second half.

Northwestern at Illinois, noon, ESPN Classic. Lines, Illini -5, O/U 48

Illinois has seemingly turned their season around, but they still need to win out in order to get to a bowl game. The public must be convinced that Illinois is back enough to be counted on the win games. They're favored in this game. Northwestern, meanwhile, is coming off a physical win against Iowa. Two weeks ago, who would you guess to be favored in this game? What if  we spilled the beans and granted a NW win over Iowa? Could you still forsee the Illini as chalk, even at home?  I would not have.

That's not to say Northwestern is playing all that good. But, I like Mike Kafka's game. Illinois is still giving up a lot of passing yards and Kafka, despite playing a bit hurt, will still torch the Illini secondary and make plays with his arm. It does not look like Juice will play this game after being knocked out last late week. I think NW's steady defense will contain the RS Frosh Charest in his first start.

The Pick: Northwestern +5.......I am not ready to trust Illinois as a favorite. No way. And, I've always liked Northwestern as an underdog when they're playing fellow December bowl hopefuls. Neither team is perfect, but one is coached by Ron Zook, the other by Pat Fitzgerald. I like the Cats.

Michigan State at Purdue, noon, ESPN. Lines, MSU-3, O/U 53

Personally, I think Michigan State has had a disappointing season. This was supposed to be a 9-win team and a Big 10 sleeper, at least according to their fanbase and a lot of pundits, trying to sound smart by going off track when forecasting the league back in the summer. They just have not been able to close out games, furthering a Spartan tradition about as old as the program itself.  I dont think they're guaranteed another win this season as this one will be a dog fight and they host Penn State next week.

Two weeks ago they were road favorites at Minnesota and gave up 42 points in a game that was out of control for them from the start. I once thought MSU could be primed for a late season run, but that game reminded me that MSU cant stop the big play on D and are vulnerable to good, balanced offenses. Right now, that's Purdue. I wont be shocked if the same thing happens in this one with Purdue seizing early momentum on offense. Sparty has not packed its defense for road trips this season, giving up over 30 points a game in their travelers. Purdue's offense has more than enough to continue those numbers.

I'm not sure where MSU is right now. They're neither playing their worst, nor their best ball of the season. They're kind of just average. Purdue, meanwhile, with one glaring exception, is playing their best ball of the year over the last month. At home, desperate for a win to stay alive for a bowl, I think they continue that upward trend. Bolden will outrush the Spartans and Elliot will outduel another first year QB for the second week in a row.

The Pick: Purdue +3........the home team is 9-2 ATS, Purdue is 5-2 ATS as an underdog, Sparty is 2-5 ATS against the Big 10 and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Ross-Ade Stadium. It's like a Harem of Trends. What could go wrong?

Iowa at Ohio State, 3:30, ABC. Lines, OSU -17, O/U 37.5

A lot of air leaked out of this game with the Ricky Stanzi injury. After watching the redshirt frosh Vandenburg struggle mightily and look lost trying to steer his team at home against Northwestern, how in the world is he going to get anything done on the road against the mighty Buckeyes? Its not hard to imagine the OSU D swarming this kid and turning this game into a rout on that side of the ball.

But I dont count the Hawkeyes totally out of this game. Nobody on their defense got hurt last week. They're still a nasty bunch. There DLine will dominate OSU's Oline. They make other teams QBs look bad and we finally get to see this defensive unit go up against Terrelle Pryor. While Pryor has played well of late, I stand by what I said weeks ago on the MGoPodcast that when these clubs play take the Under on all Pryor prop bets you could find.  So, it was a little disappointing to find out this week that I could only find four prop bets geared on Pryor's performance. For laughs, lets take a look at them.

Completions, O/U 11.5

What will he throw first: Interception +170, TD -220

Rushing attempts, O/U 12.5

Will he rush for a TD:  Yes -220, No +170

I could talk myself into the Under in completions. And, I didnt really take rushing stats into account on those words many weeks ago. He seems a lock to go over 12.5 rushes. I have never really done player props in the college. I dont see myself really starting here, but, who knows, in the wake of Michigan game I may do something rash.

The Pick: Iowa +17.......I like the Iowa D a lot, I like the Kirk Ferentz Game Management Plan, I love Tressel Ball to betray the heavy chalk, I think the Iowa DL mauls the OSU OL, I think the Iowa OL holds their own against the OSU front, and I think Iowa's receiving threats can get open enough where the new QB can lead a few scoring drives. I dont think OSU has the ability to score enough points to cover this suddenly huge number. For most of the season, this line as been OSU -9, but we saw the line skyrocket this week almost overnight in the wake of Iowa's loss and Stanzi's injury. I have a feeling the final ends up falling into between those numbers.

Michigan at Wisconsin, noon, BTN. Lines, Wisco -85, O/U 55

This game has also seen a big jump in the line from midseason to now. Pretty much the whole way from summer into early November, the line in this game hovered between -3 to -4 Wisco. We all know now that line actually opened this week at -10 before settling into the 9/8.5 numbers we're seeing everywhere now.

In this game, you have two of best young offenses in the league. So I dont see why you shouldnt expect the continuation of the total trend that has seen Michigan games in the Rodriguez tenure go Over the mark at a two out of every game clip.  I know the Badgers have some good defensive numbers, but they've had a hard time matching up on their schedule at times with teams with a wide range of weapons in the passing game. Michigan may not be a fully functional Rodruguez offense yet, but it has those weapons. And, a good enough run game to keep the whole defense honest. If the tackles can hold up enough of the time, I dont see why Michigan cant put forth a good scoring effort.

Obviously, they're going to need it to hang around in this one. But this has traditionally been one of the closest series that Michigan has played. I dont see why these teams wont play another one. These teams arent as far apart as people are making it out to be.

The Pick: Michigan +8.5.......here's another reason. In all games between the 4-11 teams in the league ( a natural cutoff because of the amazing drop off from really good top 3 teams to the equally dazzling mediocre other eight), the underdog is 12-5 ATS. Considering I am just 9-8 ATS in those games, this is something I should have been doing all along. We have three of those dogs with Michigan, Northwestern and Purdue. I like my chances to get two out of three.

So Michigan is now a delicate 5-5, fighting for self-respect and bowl eligibility in year two of the Carr-to-Rodriguez transition. The game at Wisconsin (7-2) this weekend is going to be a huge test for the Wolverines.  A victory would be something along the lines of a miracle, when one considers the trajectory of the Michigan defense, the road venue and the Badger's rabid intentions to extract revenge for the inconceivable loss to UM in 2008. A Michigan win would salvage the football season for Rodriguez to a certain degree. 

A loss to the Badgers Saturday would likely send the Michigan team careening toward rock bottom, or place it there instantly. Michigan fans are already hoping that last week's home loss to Purdue was the verifiable lowest point. 

But when will be the lowest point for Michigan?

When Rodriguez became the new head coach at West Virginia in 2001, things went poorly to say the least. The Mountaineers lost all of their road games,  and lost to four ranked foes, finishing 3-8. The following year, Rodriguez discovered a way to shut off the turnover faucet, pretty much ceased throwing the football, and focused on establishing the run.  He was successful.

But when was Rodriguez's lowest point at WVU?

Some say it was the embarrassing 3-45 loss to No. 1 Miami in the Orange Bowl in 2001.  Other say it was the 13-24 loss at 14th ranked Syracuse two weeks later that handed WVU six losses on the year and eliminated them from bowl contention.

I believe it was the 14-17 home loss to Temple in 2001. WVU was 3-6 at the time, definitely staying home for the holidays and facing a very bad Temple team that would finish 4-7 that year.  With hated rival Pitt was on the deck the following week, the Mountaineer team lost focus and were douched in embarrassing fashion in front of their home crowd by the Owls.

The last time a Mountaineer football team lost to Temple? 1984.  Which also happened to be Rodriguez's senior year at defensive back under then coach Don Nehlen. It was also the last time Temple football had a winning football season (6-5).  Sure enough, WVU went on to lose to their chief rival Pittsburgh the following week 17-23.  But it was probably the Temple loss that sunk Rodriguez's fledgling program to rock bottom.

Rodriguez's second season saw WVU go 9-4, but it too was chock full of team regression and decisive losses, like the 17-34 loss to Wisconsin in Madison, the 17-48 shellacking vs. Maryland (with former Mountaineer Scott McBrien quarterbacking the Terps to add insult to injury), and a 23-40 bashing by a No. 1 Miami team again in front of a home crowd in Morgantown.   All but the Maryland defeat were to ranked opponents.

Yet in between those defeats was a surprising offensive turnaround. The Rodriguez team appeared to have finally found it's identity not only offensively, but defensively as well. By early November the pieces appeared to have been finally forged together just tight enough to spring an unexpected upset victory over a heavily favored and 13th ranked Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg 21-18, followed by a 24-17 Mountaineer win 17th ranked rival Pittsburgh.

Many Wolverine fans today probably consider the loss to Toledo 10-13, or the 35 point defeat to Ohio State back in November 2008 as Rodriguez's rock bottom at Michigan. 

Was that really the bottom?

I don't know that we have the answer yet.

Michigan has an opportunity to either reach a new bottom, or recover from whatever destination they arrived at last week courtesy of Danny Hope.

Wisconsin is currently ranked 20th in the land and nobody is giving Michigan much of a shot.