in town for free camps
This is my first time posting on this site, so I'm not sure about protocol and such. Anyway, I'll just jump right in.
Watching the end of the Michigan St. and Illinois game, it really struck how much better these teams are than Michigan. I know I am not really going out a limb here with this statement, so let me explain.
These teams have at least two or three players that are able to continually penetrate and get to the basket, or closers, for the purpose of this post. When these teams desperately need points, they have a few different players that are able to create their own shot and get to the rim. Contrast that with Wolverines, who typically have only one player on the floor who is capable of doing so (Manny Harris). You could maybe throw DeShawn Sims in, but lets be honest. He doesn't consistently take the ball to the hoop and he often settles for a low percentage jump shots. (The game against Purdue is the notable recent exception. He attacked the basket consistently)
So let me get to the point. Whenever the game is winding down and points are at a premium against a good defensive team, UM can never manage to even get a good look at the basket. Inevitably the shot clocks winds down and whoever has the ball throws up a contested 3 pointer. The win at Northwestern was one of the few games this year where I actually felt confident the team was going to win because Manny just put the team on his back and kept getting to the hoop. Every other close game, it's hard to watch because I know we need to hit high difficulty shots to have a chance.
And since Manny is really our only threat to create a shot, he often ends up forcing it into traffic and taking a bad shot. I won't even get into the lack of respect he gets when it comes to getting fouls called in this post.
A look at the rest of Michigan's team reveals only a bunch of poor to average three point shooters with little or no interest of venturing inside the three-point arc:
Zack Novak: He is pretty much worthless to this team on offense if he's not hitting his high difficulty 3 pointers. He is never a threat to do anything but shoot 3s from the baseline or corner. Plus as Michigan's "power forward", he seldom grabs offensive rebounds. He had a nice drive today against Wisconsin, but it was the first time I can remember him doing anything like that all season.
Stu Douglass: Stu has been trying a little recently to drive, but he usually stumbles or just gives up the ball without really accomplishing anything. He is probably our best 3-point shooter that actually sees PT and he pretty good court vision.
CJ Lee: He has improved his willingness to shoot recently and is actually connecting at a decent clip from 3-point range. But on most possessions all he does is pass to the wing and then cut down into the corner, rotate back to the top and repeat.
So of the five guys who see the most time during games, three of them are zero to no threat to attack the basket. The ability to penetrate and break down the defense is crucial to scoring consistently. Michigan scored only a one or two baskets in the first ten minutes of the second half in the loss at Wisconsin. At the end of the game, they just forced contested three pointers.
So now I pose this question to the MGoBlog community? Why on earth do Lee, Novak, and Douglass play so much? Is there really no one else on the bench that can just jack up 3s? Putting defense aside, can someone shine some light on this for me? I really just want to see a few closers out there on the court that can get to the basket or at least try to get to the basket rather than heaving desperation 3s.
Sup guys, this is my first post on mgoblog!
I'm all Michigan fans have heard that they are the quietest 100,000 fans in the country. Hate to say it, but its true. Stadiums half the size of Michigan Stadium are getting up to 120 decibels.
"It's not the fans fault, the stadium can't hold in noise." Partly true. The stadium is only one tier so it can't hold in as much noise. And there are some fans outside the student section that make noise. But this is what they get in response from the other 85% of fans that just sit on their hands: "HEY, SIT DOWN!" That shouldn't be happening. If everyone in the stadium would stand up and cheer, Michigan stadium would be the hardest to play in the country. And with the new renovations, the stadium can hold in more noise! Those of you who get what I'm saying need to set examples for the rest of the fans so Michigan doesn't waste their potential home field advantage. If no one around you is yelling, be the one to stand up and make them follow what you're doing!
I can safely say after loses to App St. and Toledo, that Michigan Stadium is no longer a tough venue to play in. Lets make it one again. Ya last year there wasn't much to cheer for, but with the 3 yards and a cloud of dust gone, and the spread in, with fast quarterbacks and more exciting plays, there should be a lot of cheering doing on.
Anyone besides me absolutely hate the key plays? Can't stand them. What you should be doing it yelling!!!!!! They shouldn't flash that big "Key Play" sign on the scoreboard, it should say "GET LOUD" or "GO CRAZY" or "MAKE SOME NOISE". THE KEY PLAY THING HAS TO STOP! IF YOU SEE SOMEONE WITH THEIR KEYS OUT NEAR YOU, TELL THEM TO "PUT THOSE DAMN THINGS AWAY AND YELL!"
But don't limit 3rd down to when you should be yelling, you should be yelling every down! The other team won't be able to hear, and it will create a home field advantage!
I thought up a good idea a few weeks ago and I sent it to Mark Riordan, the head athletic director for marketing at Michigan. The idea was to give away free maize rally towels that say on the front: GET LOUD IN THE BIG HOUSE: 2009 on them. And on the back say PROTECT THIS HOUSE. Anyone else think this is a good idea?
I also think that there isn't enough participation in the Maize outs. Guys, on Maize out days, skip the jersey and wear something maize. and if you don't own anything maize, go buy a t-shirt for $15 or less!!!!!!
Anyone think night games would be cool at Michigan Stadium? And I think if the team wore those maize jerseys and blue pants as an alternate once a year, and the game was a maizeout, it could get crazy! As crazy as Penn State's whiteouts!
Last, we gotta popularize the claw. We used to do the chop to "Temptation" on 4th down, but it evolved into the claw. If we keep doing it, it will become as popular as Florida's gator chomp!
Please email Mark Riordan, the head athletic director, about the towel idea and the night games. I need as much participation as possible! They might actually happen if enough people tell him its a good idea! The rest of the things I said, I hope you also follow, and Michigan becomes a great team again!
Ok change of plans. Don't email Mark anymore because he figured out that I had been "recruting" people to email him. Just email your names and a sentence or 2 of what you want to say to him to me and I will email a list of all the people who support my ideas to him.
Check out this youtube video I made too. It pretty much states what I stated on here.
Sign my petition to play night games!!!!!!!
GO BLUE 2009!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy March, everyone!
We're beyond the traditional winter months on the calendar and chatter of Spring Training promises warmer and longer days ahead.
For me, the arrivial of March really only means one thing: A cavalcade of intense college hoops dramatics. They call it March Madness. I am certain you've heard something about it before.
Over the next three weeks, a buffet of bubble battles, conference tournament elimination games and the opening rounds of the tournament itself will cut the game down from 343 to 16 teams.
Actually, we're below 330 teams right now as some hangers-on in the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley and Ivy leagues have already been eliminated. Sorry, Southeast Missouri State, but you didn't qualify for the OVC Tournament. You can stop any contigency plans for a parade in downtown Cape Giradeau. Of course, since you went 0-18 this year in the league, those plans probably weren't that far along anyway.
There will be a ton of hoops crammed in this a short period of time as we sort out who will be left standing and deemed #1 (not to mention, who will be named #66). As a college hoop junkie, I will be in Heaven. I shudder to think just how many games I will gamble on between now and St. Patrick's Day. And, then the NCAA and NIT tournaments will actually begin. Wow. Hold on Tight.
For Michigan fans, the arrival of March brings both great excitement and dread.
On one hand, the program is playing relevant hoops again. A year removed from one of the worst seasons in program history, Michigan sits squarely on the bubble with an obvious, and not impossible, road map into the NCAA Tournament. Doing so would break a decade-long qualifying absense from the final field of 65. That quest begins today at Wisconsin, in the first of at least three games remaining for Michigan of which the Wolverines need to scrape up two wins to likely make the field.
However, March has not been kind to the basketball program this decade. That's where dread sets in for Michigan fans. They've been dragged to the NCAA cut line before, only to see their hopes clipped in the end. Did you know that since their last NCAA appearance, Michigan is just 18-24 in the month of March?
Oh, that's no shock. I'm surprised it's not worse. We've had some lean times
Ok, so it's not that awful. It's not awesome, either. But, how about removing the 10-2 NIT mark compiled during those years? We're left with a brutal 8-22 record, all of which is against Big 10 foes either in regular season or league tournament games.
Ouch. Crap, that blows donkey.
Michigan has lost five regular season March games in a row and 11 of their last 14.
March Madness is to the basketball program as Pasadena is to the football program.
Triple Ouch, and thats a blow smart guy. You're On Notice
What's worse is how many of those March contests would made Michigan tournament bound had the result gone the other way.
In 2003, Michigan entered March tied with Wisconsin in the loss column for first place in the league. Late scoring droughts doomed Michigan in home losses to Illinois and Purdue. That was the last season Michigan was on probabtion, but its final 17-13 record would not have passed the grade anyway.
Eh. Who cares? It was good to be winning again. The probabtion being lifted was the biggest win of the season anyway. We we finally on the way back.
Which stomach punch loss to Indiana was worse? The 5-point road loss in Bloomington in 2004 to a sagging Hoosiers club with a losing record. Or, the 2006 season closer where the Wolverines vomitted a couple different double digit leads allowing lame duck Mike Davis to steal its tournament bid.
2006. Epic Fail. I wanted to tear of Tommy's head that day and feed it to zoo animals. How do you never beat Mike Fucking Davis in your entire coaching career? You have to work hard to blow that many games to that guy.
Courtney Sims missed dunk.
Is it too early to drink?
All those losses flipped UM from a tournament-looking team to the NIT or worse. And, it does not take into account any of the woes in the league tournament where Michigan has had plenty of chances to overcome those regular season gaffes. Mission Never Accomplished.
What's your point, I thought you said Happy March Madness?
What can Michigan do to break the cycle? I think they've already done it. They hired John Beilein. Beilein took over a complete rebuilding project last year. It's a feather in his cap that he rebuilt the program in his image and already has at least returned the Wolverines back to the level where his predecessor peaked. Getting Michigan to the brink of the tournament was the limit for Amaker.
I think we learned that Amaker is not that good of a head coach. He's a career #2 guy, best left to managing certain aspects of the team. As a head coach, he never was able to discover that new wrinkle or push that extra button to get the team those critical March wins. Its a different brand of ball this month, and you need a different brand of coach.
Beilien fits that bill. Chew on these numbers as we approach the tip today in Madison. During Michigan's stretch of futility, Beilein is 33-22 SU, 34-19-2 ATS in the month of March. While Michigan has been losing critical March games for the last decade, Beilein has been winning them.
That above record includes the 1-3 marks from last year when Beilein arguably faced his widest talent gap between his team and the bulk of its schedule. Last season was the first year that a Beilein team had a losing record in March against the spread since his second year at Richmond. That was also the first year of Michigan's NCAA drought.
The talent gap has clearly shrunk, evidenced by the fact the Wolverines are on the brink of doubling their league wins from last season and, more importantly, ending their long tournament absence. The club still is not loaded with talent. But there's enough skill and smarts on the team, that I trust it in a game like we have today, specifically because Beiein is behind it prepping and prodding them. I expect this March to deliver results that we're more accustomed to from Beilein squads.
The battle of coaching wits between Beilein and Bo Ryan today will be fascinating. Of course, it might create a game played in the 50s and not look aesthetically pleasing. But, it will create a game than ends closer than the experts in the desert (Wisco is an 7-point favorite) think.
Michigan has the chance to have the two best players on the court throughout the game. I like C.J. Lee's chances to lock up Travon Hughes so he doesn't kill Michigan like he did back in December. Manny Harris will not shrink from this moment.
I've seen enough of the Badgers this year to know that despite what defensive stats are out there, this is not one of Bo Ryan's vintage lock down units. I've seen teams from like Long Beach State and Iona carve out quality looks against this defense, convert and nearly pull off upsets. The Badgers have had worse moments against the league's bottom three than Michigan. At home this season against likely tournament and bubble teams, the Badgers are just 1-5 ATS. Michigan is one of those teams. I dont think they'll be able to shake free from Michigan all day.
The Wolverines will have their chances today. If they can convert a few more open looks than usual, they will be there in the end and we'll have another dramatic Sunday afternoon of basketball on our hands. Just in time for March.
Being extremely superstitious when it comes to sporting events, I completely believe that the curse of the mgoblog basketball liveblog curse is just as strong as the Madden curse, the SI Jinx, and Angry Michigan Safety Hating God. I was shocked to see that Brian does not believe this curse exists, despite his admittance that the evidence is piling up. Knowing that Brian is extremely reasonable when it comes to numbers, I decided to spend some time on this grey, Oregon Saturday to go thru the archives to see how bad the piling evidence actually looks. Warning: the results are not pretty.
1/15/05 - 66-62 W @ PSU. Brian's 1st foray into liveblogs was actually successful. This was a messy, injury ridden season so this was also the only game Brian cared to liveblog.
11/29/05 - 74-53 W v Miami(yes, that Miami). The high point of the exercise. Arguably Tommy's best team holding their own in the B10/ACC challenge.
3/9/06 - 55-59 L v Minn in the B10 tourney. Arguably Tommy's best team in arguably his most crushing defeat. After an equally crushing loss at home to Indiana that would have likely sealed a tourney bid, the team need a good showing the in B10 tourney to get in. Instead the curse forces a loss to a team that the Wolverines beat 71-55 and 72-50 during the regular season.
11/28/06 - 67-74 L @ NC State. Miami(yes, that Miami) is avenged for the loss in the prior season's B10/ACC challenge.
1/24/07 - 58-71 L @ Wisc. Hard to blame this one on a curse as it was on the road against the #2 team in the country, even if Wisc was horribly overrated.
3/9/07 - 62-72 L v OSU in the B10 tourney. A week after blowing a golden opportunity to knock off the #1 ranked Buckeyes and punch their ticket to the dance, the boys had the opportunity to make amends. Win either game and Tommy is probably still coach.
3/13/07 - 68-58 W v Utah State (NIT). No comment
Brian had his hands full breaking the Carr retirement, forcing everyone onto the ledge w/ the Ferentz/Hoke rumors, and detailing the snake oil. By the time that calmed down the season was in effect already over.
1/7/09 - 72-66 (OT) W @ Ind. Probably a close 2nd to the 06 loss to Minn in detailing the power of the liveblog curse. They needed to overcome a 20 pt 2nd half deficit to beat the basketball equivalent to 07 Notre Dame football.
1/14/09 - 51-66 L @ Ill. They hung close for 20 mins before the curse settled in and took over.
1/17/09 - 54-72 L @ PSU. Just a horrible, curse-aided performance on the road.
2/7/09* - 61-69 L @ UConn. W/out the liveblog who knows how those last 4 mins play out?
2/10/09* - 42-54 L v MSU. 42 points against your biggest basketball rival. Enough said.
2/15/09* - 70-67 (OT) W @ NW. Truly, a miracle. The curse gave it a great fight w/ the Coble double-pump 3 to send it to OT.
2/22/09 - 60-70 (OT) L @ Iowa. The curse allows Iowa to send it to OT by sending a 90+% FT shooter to the line twice in the final minute. It then causes havoc w/ the Harris controversy.
* An mgoblog liveblog in address only as Brian was out of the country and, therefore, did not host it.
Ladies and gentlemen, the defense rests. Brian, I throw myself upon the mercy of the mgoblog court and plead for the liveblogs to cease and desist. I think there is more than enough evidence above to support this decision.
Note: If I were more technically savvy I would have provided links to those posts. The dates are there, feel free to use the archive to look at the carnage.
I'm relaxing and watching hoops this afternoon. I'm feeling like a slacker, however, and I am not putting together a 2,000-word plus Bubble News, even though relevant action abounds today relative to Michigan's tournament chances.
I don't know if folks wanted to rap about hoops or not, but, if you do, let's chat.
Here are a few opening salvos:
If you need a complete list of games and rooting interests,Dylan at UM Hoops has compiled one for you. Some nice discussions ensued in the comments section, the latest being insights on an intriguing bubble exercise the folks on GameDay did involving Michigan. By all means, chat hoops there too. If you can't handle two different hoop discussions, you are soft. And, you wont survive the next two weeks.
One simple win over Purdue completely redirected opinion on Michigan's chances. While the Wolverines are still a long way away from being a consensus invite from the Bracket Matrix, 20 brackets have updated since the convincing win over the Boilers and 12 of them have Michigan on a bracket line.
One of those brackets is Joe Lunardi at espn.com. Lunardi has Michigan seeded 11 and the last team in his field. He has them matched up with LSU and a date with #3 seed Duke looming. Any thoughts on that draw? Also, check out this interview he did yesterday after releasing his update. It's a solid perspective on the national landscape, but he saved his most intriguing observsation for last: next Saturday's game at Minnesota might be an at large elimination game.
As the noon games begin their second halves, there is really only one bubble game going on and that's Georgetown at Villanova. At 14-12, 5-10 in the Big East, it's hard to say the Hoyas have a chance and keep a straight face. But, they close with a pair of league lightweights and currently have the nation's #1 SOS. If they can steal a road win in Phily today, they will likely finish at 17-12. They could sneak in with a pair of league tournament wins. A loss today forces them to go much farther in the Big East Tournament to get a bid, with perhaps winning it all being their only way to entry. The Hoyas are up 5 at the half against the solidly favored Wildcats. I still think Villanova comes back and wins this one. So much so that I just put some coin on them -6.5 on the second half time.
I'm also keeping my eye on Cleveland State at Butler, over on ESPN2. Butler will get an at large bid even if it cant win its league tournament, so next week we'll be pulling very hard for the Bulldogs. In the regular season closer today, they're facing one of the teams that might pick them off. I'm really just pointing the game out because way back on December 3 when these teams first played, I suffered unquestionably my worst beat of the year. In a pick 'em, I had the Vikings, and Butler drained a 25-footer as time expired to come from behind and win. I swear it took 10 seconds from release to swish. That was almost three months ago. Its hard to believe its even from the same season. This afternoon, Butler is going for the outright crown and up 6 at the break. If you want a complete look at how the mid majors are currently impacting the bubble, Joe Cribbs Car Wash has you covered.
In the next set of games, the big bubble game is Notre Dame at Uconn. The Irish have won four of five to rope themselves back into contention for a bid. The next 50 hours will tell a lot about Notre Dame's ultimate tale. After today, they host Villanova Monday night. Conventional wisdom in DomerVille is that a 2-1 record to close the season and a 2-1 BE Tourney record will get them in the field. That sounds like something worth rooting against.
And, I will be watching Clemson at Florida State. The game is a pick 'em, and I really, really like Florida State. Oh boy!
I'll have a few updates as the day goes on. Let's talk hoops.
The heavy action of the day is about to begin. If you're controlling the remote today, here's what to keep an eye on:
Arizona at Washington, 3pm, FSN. Line, UW -8.5
Arizona has lost two in a row and now they play the best team in the league. The Cats need this one. They're a solid looking # 8 in the Matrix, but of the 20 brackets updated since Thursday, 12 have Arizona as a double digit seed. They'll be on the edge of the cut line if a third straight loss occurs today. They close at home against Cal and Stanford. Observers said the Cats looked disinterested in their game at Wassau Thursday night, so it will be interesting to see how they come out today.
Duke at Virginia Tech, 330, ABC. Line, Duke -6.5
Virginia Tech picked themselves off the mat with their win over Clemson this week. The Hokies are the final team cut out of the Matrix and are in one more field than Michigan of the 20 updated since Thursday. They close with Duke, UNC and at FSU. How many of those do they need to feel solid about a bid. Perhaps just one, if they dont got 0-1 in the ACC Tournament. The Hokies have a history of playing Duke tough and with close to half their games this year decided by 5 or less, expect this one to be dramatic and down to the wire.
LSU at UK, 4pm, CBS. Line, UK -4.5
I'm going to pat myself on the back right here. Throughout all the Bubble News editions, I touted LSU as the most talented team in the SEC. This week, they clinched the league title. Monsiour Jamie Mac, Laissez les Bon Temps Rouler! Here's hoping it stays that way as a road win in Lexington today would be a huge dagger through the heart of Kentucky's NCAA hopes. I cant shake the feeling that of UK, Florida and Tennessee, only two will make the field. The Gators and Vols square off tomorrow, so a Wildcat loss today would probably give bubble teams a pair of vulnerable SEC teams to pick off during the final week. The Cats are a soap opera. Gillespie is coaching like Rick Moranis. All I know is I dont want to be in Billy Clyde's shoes if UK ends up in the NIT. Unless LSU is still celebrating their crown I dont think UK has the chops today to get it done.
Ohio State at Purdue, 4pm, ESPN. Line, PU -9.5
Lets consider the Big 10 standings, and not the NCAA Bubble, for this one. With a Michigan win tomorrow and an Ohio State loss today, Michigan would rise to fifth in the league standings. Throw in a Penn State loss to Indiana (I saw a Crean and Crimson shirt at the gym this morning. Gotta be a good omen, right?) and Michigan would be in fourth place. Intriguing.
Temple at Dayton, 5pm, no TV. Line, DU -3
Temple had been steadily climbing the bubble until their awful loss to LaSalle on Thursday. They're fifth to last out according to the Matrix, but none of the 20 brackets since Thursday have included the Owls. Dayton has been in the field the whole way and the most recent bracketology straw poll has them as a double digit seed. The loser falls to fourth place in the Atlantic 10. Can you see an at large coming from that position? Dayton closes at Xavier and home vs. Duquense. I'm not trying to be a Chicken Little, but the Flyers cant afford a losing streak here at the end of the season.
Utah at BYU, 5pm, no TV. Line, BYU -6
Both these teams are solidly in the field at this point. BYU is the only vulnerable one of these two. If the Cougars lose today, once more in the final week and flames out early in the league tournament, they could get bounced. I would actually expect that happen under those circumstances.
Texas at Oklahoma State, 6pm, ESPN. Line, OSU -1
One of the biggest bubbles games of the day. The Cowboys sit as a #12 in the Matrix. A big win tonight could move them so far up the bracket lines that only a tailspin to close the season can get them out of.
Nebraska at Kansas State, 8pm, ESPN Full Court. Line, KSU -8
Like the Cowboys, the Wildcats are on the Matrix 12 line. They cant afford a loss or else teams will pass them. KSU players seem to writing their own at large bid obit, after getting blown out by Missouri the other night. The Big 12 schedule makers should get a cookie for this one. One Tuesday, KState travels to Oklahoma State in one of the most important bubble games of the final week. That game becomes more desperate if either the Pokes or the Cats lose at home today.
USC at Stanford, 8pm, no TV. Line, Stanford -2
Michigan sits solidly ahead of the Trojans in most people's minds. But, the Trojans close with a pair of layups at home against the Oregon schools. A win today could lead to a three game winning streak to end the season. Add a fourth win in the Pac 10 and you've got a hot, 20-win team. You see where I am going with this, dont you? Go Cardinal. Pretend it's football and 2007.
Here is a look at every team in the NCAA and whether we want them to win or not:
(Rankings are based on RPI as of Saturday Morning 2/28; parenthesis enclose Pairwise Ranking)
1. Boston University (1)-Win: There is no chance of Michigan catching BU, so it would be nice if they could knock down some other Hockey East teams (i.e. Northeastern)
2. Notre Dame (3)-Lose: We trail them, we have the opportunity to catch them, and they're Notre Dame
3. Michigan (4)-Win: Obvious
4. Northeastern (5)-Lose: If Northeastern does well in their conference tournament, they may pass us
5. Denver (2)-Lose: They lead us in the Pairwise and we stand a good chance of passing them if they lose once, as every remaining game they have should come against Pairwise top-25 teams.
6. Vermont (t-6)-Lose: Like Northeastern, they too have a fair chance to pass us. However, unless they win out, we should be ok.
7. Yale (t-6)-Win: We have a solid lead over them in our comparison and they have a shot at winning comparisons against
Denver, Northeastern, and Vermont, which would boost or secure Michigan's ranking.
8. New Hampshire (t-8)-Lose: When I say lose here, I mean that we don't want New Hampshire to win the Hockey East Tournament. Unless they do that, we should stay in front of them. Also, it would be nice to see UNH upset some higher ranked teams.
9. North Dakota (t-8)-Lose: North Dakota is surging. They probably won't pass us, but even if they don't, it would be nice if they lost some momentum going into the NCAA tournament.
10. Princeton (10)-Win: Another team that can't catch us but could hurt other teams. However, Yale can do a better job of this so we want Yale over Princeton.
11. Cornell (11)-Mixed: Can't really do anything for us but if they lose to Yale and/or Princeton, it'll help our cause indirectly. That said, they don't really matter.
12. Minn-Duluth (t-12)-Win: They play other WCHA teams that we want devalued. They also aren't a threat.
13. Miami (t-12)-Lose: Thanks to OSU, we have a secure comparison here. However, it would be nice for some security in the 2-spot of the CCHA standings (if we beat Ferris State tonight, this point becomes moot).
14. Ohio State (14)-Lose: They're Ohio State
15. Colorado College (t-15)-Win: Like Minn-Duluth, they could knock down some other WCHA teams ranked above them
16. St. Lawrence (t-15)-Mixed: Same as Cornell, but when they win, our RPI improves
17. Minnesota (17)-Lose: We currently hold the #4 overall seed. Should Minnesota make the tournament, we would probably play them in the first round at their home rink. This would suck.
18. Boston College (18)-Win: Another Hockey East team that could screw over teams ranked ahead of them.
19. Wisconsin (t-19)-Win: Another WCHA team that could hurt teams above it. Also, we want Minnesota State to lose, and they play Minnesota State.
20. Air Force (t-19)-Win: You never root against the Air Force
21. St. Cloud State (21)-Win: Same as Wisconsin. Also, they play Denver tonight.
22. UMass-Lowell (22)-Win: Another Hockey East team that could screw over teams ranked ahead of them.
23. Alaska (23)-Win: We'd be indifferent, but they're playing Alaska-Anchorage, whom we want to lose.
24. Rochester Institute of Technology (24)-Indifferent: They play such a low level of competition that they have no bearing on us.
25. Minnesota State (25)-Lose: Minn State provides a lot of TUC wins to WCHA teams, including Denver. If they're knocked out of the top 25 RPI, Denver falls below us.
26. Dartmouth (NR)-Win: Pass Minn State
27. Massachusetts (NR)-Lose: We don't want a weak Hockey East team in the top 25 or the rest of Hockey East gets a boost in their TUC records
28. Northern Michigan (NR)-Lose: If NMU makes the top 25, Michigan gets 2 losses in their TUC record. It also makes for a crappy comparison.
29. Alaska-Anchorage (NR)-Lose: They add wins in the TUC column of the rest of the WCHA if they make it into the top 25.
30. Nebraska-Omaha (NR)-Win: If they make it into the top 25, Michigan gets 2 more TUC wins.
36. Michigan State (NR)-Lose: FYS
Everyone else: Play the spoiler against teams that aren't us.
Update: With Alaska's loss to Alaska-Anchorage, Alaska now is on the cusp of falling out of the Pairwise. Should this happen, Michigan moves into third place behind Notre Dame. Furthermore, Notre Dame loses credit for a sweep against a TUC. This will lead to a highly interesting scenario where Notre Dame will get a one seed if they get two wins against TUCs or a loss in the second round.