landing spot. will be interesting to see how he does.
Note: On Monday, I posted Sylvester McMonkey McBean Helps Settle the Pat White Question Once and for All, complete with annoying HTML that I couldn’t edit out of existence without starting over. Won’t make that mistake again. What follows is the digested feedback for improving the McBean Rating System, the purpose of which, to quote myself, is to develop “a collaborative, ongoing post-recruitment rating system that will allow us to determine if, in the Rich Rodriguez era, perfect-fit three-stars are more desirable than random four-stars.” Our goal is to settle the Pat White Question once and for all.
Thanks all for the quality feedback. In the original post, I proposed that players be rated over their career at Michigan using definitions that approximated the spirit of the Rivals star ratings to see if, on average, players exceeded or fell short of expectations. The effort would span the later Carr years and, of course, the Rodriguez era going forward. How players performed relative to expectations would give the mgocommunity interesting information on the ability of a coach’s system to evaluate and develop talent. For more detail, the original post.
We began with these definitions.
These were found to be too loose. SanDiegoWolverine dabbled with the idea of a two-faceted rating system, but my IQ will not permit that level of complexity, so I used the following comments to revise the definitions above.
I'm not sure that there is a 1:1 correlation between the Rivals rankings and the McBean rankings.UMFootballCrazy found some numerical guidelines in Rivals:
Example (5 star): Elite, Dominant player, Complete package. Projects to the highest level. vs. Stud. Multi-year starter. All-something. NFL player.
I'll take "All-Something" to mean First team All conference in a BCS conference. That is 6 conferences x 22 players per all conference team = 132 -- plus kickers -- 5 star players. Does Rivals hand out 100 5 star ratings that often?
Players are also ranked on their quality with a star ranking. A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.It seems that unless there is some loyalty to the proportion of star ratings allocated, then the McBean Rating loses its credibility. For example, if we dole out twice as many McBean five stars, is that Michigan developing talent or is that rose-colored glasses? It seems the NFL draft can serve in an advisory capacity, part of a checks and balances system.
UMFootballCrazy develops this:
5 Star *****He has more good stuff, but I steal so much of it down below, that I won't repeat it here.
This is a player who was drafted in the 1st round of the NFL entry draft and is thus regarded as one of the top 32 players in the nation (mirroring Rivals top 25-30 prospects) or baring that was an All-American and/or a 4 or five year starter (i.e. started as a freshman and started virtually every game they played at Michigan) and played at an "elite" level during their playing career.
Nedved963 cautions, however:
[M]oving forward with Rodriguez it's admitted his style is for college, and success in the Pros is not that great a correlation for the skill and effectiveness of Michigan's current players.I think Colin boils it down:
How you determine those expectations could certainly be done incorporating NFL performance.
And I think that is key. We don't want the NFL draft or an NFL career to answer entirely the question as to whether a player fell short of or exceeded expectations at the University of Michigan (i.e., Tom Brady), but it can be a tie-breaker, if you will, a check against overrating our beloved players (Breaston a five-star?) and ensuring proportion to the Rivals system.
As a result, I offer for final review, the new McBean Rating System definitions. I use the Rivals definitions (d'oh!) for the Rivals definitions. Special thanks to UMFootballCrazy as I steal a great deal of his language, but shift the emphasis, using the NFL as sort of a tie-breaker for those players on the cusp in the McBean ratings. However, I move away from UMFootballCrazy's proposed definition for the lower star players because I think there is a potential hazard to mishandling the lower rated players*:
Thanks again. If we settle on these definitions, I will re-rate the 2002 through 2006 classes.
* Again, to quote myself: "To be honest, I think some of the most important rating will take place down at the bottom of the scale. If you look at the classes above, what drags down a class (and gives Lloyd's classes a slight "underperform" grade) is guys ending up as two stars...being "invisible."
That is an area that has more impact on this analysis than whether Breaston gets a fifth. Since Michigan almost never recruits two star position players, is it fair that so many recruits end up as two stars because they can't get on the field?"
Who's gonna start? Tate? Shoelace? Nick? This queston is the most common question right now but I really wanna know. I mean everyone is in love with Tate but as soon as Denard I mean "Shoelace" Came on campus people wanna marry him. I honestly think Denard should start because of his speed (imagine if he tied his shoelaces?) He is going to be very fun to watch and he is perfect for the spread offense. But Tate is doing great as well. We all know speed kills(FLORIDA) and that is why i want Shoelace to run this offense. I mean who do u guys want to run this Michigan offense? This Denard guy has impress me the most. I can really see him take Michigan to a high level. Its also easy to see Tate run this Michigan O as well. I want to see this QB competition heat up. I mean let's be honest Shoelace runs a 10.44 in the 100. This is just another Pat White or even better. I can't wait for the first game of the season against Western Michigan. I'm counting the days down and I can't wait for the starting QB walking out on that field and lead Michigan on a Victory!
I, for one, didn't expect this at all. I know he's been conditioned in the basketball program, but I thought the switch to football would've been too much of a change. I expected him to add depth at an already strong position, nothing more.
This is very impressive as we are stacked at that position with a lot of young talent. It's great to see Kelvin make his case - hopefully it will light a fire under his brother and make the RB position that much stronger as well.
We'll see if he's really good, or if it's just that our defense in practice isn't great (which hopefully isn't the case), but expect to see Kelvin making plays this fall.
Another tidbit, but this also makes me wonder about Greg Paulus. I wasn't too thrilled about bringing him in, but with Paulus' success in Syracuse's camp and Grady performing well in ours, maybe this PG - > College Football thing isn't a novelty after all.
In any case, I like our options at QB and can't wait to see them making plays with Grady and the other slots this fall.
“You say Goodbye, and I say Hello”
This is the ninth entry of the 2009 MGoShirt Alert, a design project that will enable MgoBlog readers to vote for upcoming designs in the brand spankin’ new MGoBlogStore.
As I discussed earlier this week, I sat down on Saturday morning and watched a DVR of the Friday night BTN UM practice, and fired up the laptop at the same time in case an idea or two came to me. It was clear that above all other topics, you all collectively wanted an MGoBlog insider shirt to feature Tacopants, and I had just asked all of you for Tacopants ideas on the previous day. It's a tricky concept, because Tacopants is very much a Henne/Coach Carr regime thing, and how could we possibly tie it together with the new and improved Rodriguez-era Wolverines?
Amidst the nasal inflections of Dave Resvine I came up with this design-- acknowledging the new, and signing off on the old. I've tried to avoid doing front-and-back designs, but this one pretty much demands it and might affect the final price. Naturally, this shirt is a bit dependent on the fact premise that Forcier will not suck and/or throw the ball like a 19-yr. old Chad Henne. It does put a certain amount of pressure on the young Californian as well-- which pretty much sums up this entire offseason nicely, if I do say so. Ha.
Now, in the event that Forcier loses the job to Denard Robinson, I've prepared this similar alternate version.
And... in the (gulp) scenario that neither are competent and the #8 returns under center, I give you this.
So, 2009 is here... thanks for the memories Tacopants. Now hit the road.
So, time to vote-- on the Forcier shirt, of course. What do you guys think?
|pollcode.com free polls|
|What do you think of MgoShirt #9?|
|Five Stars Four Stars Three Stars Two Stars One Star|
***** Five Stars: Tate The Forcier starts day one and never looks back.
**** Four Stars: Tate can't hold off the speed&talent of Denard Robinson.
*** Three Stars: Nick Sheridan is asked to again drop the clipboard and not suck.
** Two Stars: A very nervous Nader Furrha is handed the keys to the offense.
* One Star: Some guy named Kennedy takes the field. And we don't wake up.
Yesterday saw the last of any canine biology. I will say that the eee... Barwis shirt just looked pretty gay, and I even made a SuperGay version for all of the man-crushers out there, but on the sheer basis of defaming the entire Michigan fan base, I refused to use it. So that's your Barwis-- sorry. Besides, we already have Barwis's Gym. Tomorrow we'll be going with something nice and basic, and I have another Friday fun activity for all of you to take part in before the milk and cookies. So I'll see you then for another exciting edition of-- MGoShirt Alert!
From behind a paywall, Michigan kids like Cam and Thomas Gordon, Rocko Khoury, Teric Jones, and of course Will Campbell are drawing praise from an "insider" who sees a lot of practices. Right now, Teric Jones, who was moved from offense to defensive back, is responding well and asserting himself as a talent that will warrant playing time. Khoury is pushing those in front of him. Cameron Gordon, who many believed would end up at linebacker, has been very impressive as a receiver; a big guy with good hands who is not afraid to go over the middle for a catch, and he will undoubtedly be a good blocker as well.
For those of us who believe in recruiting Michigan, this comes as no surprise. What Michigan kids may lack in development due to the constraints of the MHSAA, weather, coaching and facilities, they make up with in ahleticism, talent, love of the game, and desire. You can't say enough for kids who have dreamt of playing for one of the big in-state schools, and if given a fair shot, as they are, they do not back down to their much more heralded colleagues from football havens like Ohio, Florida, and Texas.
I am encouraged by the reports coming in regarding Michigan kids and look forward to seeing how they perform on the field. I also hope that Rodriguez works to downplay, and even wipe out this silly perception that seems to be going around Michigan that the Wolveerines are not necessarily a welcome wagon for home-grown talent. Especially in his first few formative years, when as we saw with DaQuinta Jones and Pearlie Graves, out of state kids in general and southern kids in particular can be awfully wishy-washy about their committment to play for Michigan.
Much of the 2010 class is made up of midwest recruits, and UM has landed three top players from the home state already. It will be interesting to see how this trend develops in the future.
I know there has been a wave of folks who say things like "A three star from Florida is better than a four or five star from Michigan" or "I don't care where the players come from"--but again, getting kids from your own back yard, solidifying your home base, is a foundation that I believe UM needs and can benefit from. These kids won't get homesick, are used to the weather, can be spiritual and emotional leaders, won't wilt under Barwis, and will more likely stick out their first couple years when playing time is not exactly easy to come by.
I'd like to know the thoughts any MGoBloggers have with regard to this topic!
Stephens will be looking to break into the starting lineup this season after seeing very little action this year. He usually only came in when Dufek was moved from first base to the pitchers mound. Look for that to increase next year.
In other news, Derek Dennis met with ABC13 WZZM's Angela Cunningham last week to discuss his choice to by pass the pros and play for Michigan. Dennis was offered $700,000 to play for the Rays as a 6th round pick, and he even counter offered $1,000,000 before deciding to head back to Michigan. Quote:
"I just figured going to Michigan I'd get an education first and get a lot of exposure playing baseball there," he said. "It was hard just because if I did sign that would be a ton of money to have but I figured after college I'd stand a better chance of getting more money and set more for life."Solid choice. Dennis will be in the mix to start as a true freshman this season with Kevin Cislo graduating. It'll be interesting to see if he takes over second base, or if Anthony Toth may be moved to second and Dennis take over at short stop. I'd bet on the former.
(HT: Brian Foley of The College Baseball Blog)