How Tate Stacks Up Against M QBs of 2005-2008Update 10/22: Lots of changes. Reorganized. New Sheridan charting added. New, better metric proposed. Now fat-free!
Note: links all open in a separate window/tab, in case you were afraid of having to find your place again.
[Editor's note: bumped to front page for holy crap reasons.]
This is a collection of data inspired by Coach Schiano's brilliant new visualization of the Henne/HenneMallett/ThreetSheridammit/UseTheForcier Chart.
First, kudos, thanks, plusses, and a dozen sacrificed bulls go out to Coach Schiano. This is the most excited I've been about some new type of Michigan coverage since I read my first UFR.
I hope he doesn't mind if I go back and try to play around with the same stuff.
I went and made my own Excel spreadsheet (available here) to see if I could visualize some of the things we've been talking about here.
I replicated Coach Schiano's results (tossing out the screen metric).
One thing that stuck out right away, I think, is that the introduction of the "Marginal" metric (first discussed after FOOTBALL ARMAGEDDON in 2006 but not implemented until mid-2008) kind of hurts the QBs functioning under it. Erstwhile "catchables" for Henne/Mallett were discounted for late '08 through '09 QBs. In other words, performances before last year's Penn State game, especially in accuracy, might be kind of overrated.
Also, there were a number of games not charted during this period. These include Delaware State '09 (and high school stats, for much the same reason); Ball State '06 (Comcast was blamed); all bowl games;* and last year's Ohio State game, which was only UFR'ed under a shadow Bolshevik government, and thus cannot be trusted.
* (a UFR for the 2005 Alamo Bowl was provided, but since the entirety of that UFR was, literally, "Screw 2005!", I was unable to get any passing info from it)
Part I: Where We Do It By Downfield Success RatingThe metric we've been using, gleaned from UFRs, is Downfield Success Rating. This divides the Dead-on, Catchable, and Marginal balls against all downfield (read: "Pressure excluced") attempts.
BEST 5 GAMES BY A QB
Sheridan's Minnesota miracle looks even more miraculous now! Note, however, there were only 2 Dead-On throws, and 2 bad reads. Also, just one throwaway, no batted balls, and no pressure. That's the O-line and running game's fault.
In other coaching-related-results here, Henne's 2005 Ohio State game was scrumtrulescent by any metric, except apparently not good enough for DeBord to use the passing game to put the game out of reach. Not that I'm bitter...
WORST 5 GAMES
Sheridan's putrid, I-Survived-That-Game-Patch-Inducing game against Northwestern is, unsurprisingly, at the top. In fact, it may even trump several of my 7th grade sexual experiences in the category of worst-executed-thing-ever-done-by-man.
But I'm getting off topic. Note that Forcier's Iowa game actually made this hall of shame. So RR's pulling him for that game may be excusable. However, it is still my considered position that even with shoulder/weather/concussion/bad game, had Forcier been given that last drive, he would have pulled himself back to respectability.
Though 2008 dominated the Top 5, if you look at the Top 10 we get Threet v. Miami (NTM), three Malletts (Min, PSU, NW) and Henne's all-things-good-in-the-world-destroying 2007 game against Ohio State. [Much, much more after the jump.]
Over 75 years ago the Mudbowl game, as legend has it, started as an impromptu mud football game between SAE and Phi Delt on Homecoming weekend at the corner of South University and Washtenaw. As the years have gone by the game has become a campus tradition that now spans over 75 years.
The game itself is a relic of campus traditions of yore, so many of which have been stifled by the University, the city of Ann Arbor (the firemen used to come open the hydrants and supply hoses for the brothers to fill the bowl, now they have to pay for 100,000 gallons of water to be delivered), or have not had the fortune to be organized regularly.
The game is typically held on Homecoming weekend and traditionally involved SAE and Phi Delt playing until exhaustion in a no rules game of tackle football (until Phi Delt lost it’s charter in 1998). The annual charity event today involves SAE and the winner of the fraternity tournament, with two sororities playing their own football game at halftime (up and through the 90s, the sororities played a weird muddy rugby-like game that did not involve a football).
However, this year with an early homecoming date and so many home football weekends, it was impossible to hold the tournament in the midst of fraternity and sorority rush… so, the game is this Saturday, kicking off at 11:30am (in the SAE lawn @ South U. and Washtenaw).
Info from Mvictors notes that the sororities playing will be Kappa Kappa Gamma v. a combination of Alpha Phi+TriDelt (co-team resulting apparently from a panhel punishment). I can only note that this is not the only time that the Mudbowl has been involved in sorority scandal (Chi-O bribed their way into the event in 1993 with pizza/champagne/and a stripper&apparently Theta failed with their bid - a Keg of beer).
The fraternity event will see SAE play the winner of tonight’s fraternity final tonight between Phi Psi and Fiji. So, if you are going to be in town for the game this weekend, you can hopefully see several great football games… the Mudbowl is a charity event for Mott’s, so if you do come, find one of the people taking donations.
I know that during my years at Michigan, the Mudbowl was my favorite day of the fall semester and I constantly meet people that learn I was an SAE at Michigan and talk to me about their Mudbowl memories...
Phi Alpha to all that attend, and go Blue!
|Boubacar Cissoko||Started||Started||Started||Started||Played||DNP||DNP||Inj. Only - suspended|
|Mike Jones||DNP||DNP||DNP||Played||Played||DNP||DNP||Inj. Only|
Rich Rodriguez has said that Boubacar Cissoko is expected to return to the field this year once he clears up the issues that got him suspended. That means he won't be redshirting. Only freshmen will redshirt this year, then, and the list of eligible guys is as follows:
- Isaiah Bell
- Jeremy Gallon
- Brendan Gibbons
- Cameron Gordon
- Thomas Gordon
- Mike Jones (Injury redshirt only, as he's played in a couple games - but not the DSU blowout).
- Anthony LaLota
- Taylor Lewan
- Michael Schofield
- Fitzgerald Toussaint
- Justin Turner
- Quinton Washington
A couple of these guys might be in the mix for playing time later in the year (especially Jones, since he's already played), so keep your eyes peeled.
Note: I'm thinking about doing these for just televised games. They may expand to other sports if I find the time.
- UM @ MSU
- Wednesday October 21
- TV: BigTenNetwork (BTN GameFinder)
The volleyball team makes it two televised matches in a week with this special midweek conference game against Michigan State at 7pm tonight. The game will be televised live on the BTN as the two teams play for the "State Pride Flag," the volleyball version of the Paul Bunyan–Governor of Michigan Trophy.
The State Pride Flag has been passed back and forth by the winners of the Michigan/Michigan State regular season series since its inception in 1990. The flag was flown over the state capital building on September 18,1990 to commemorate the rivalry. The flag is a normal State Of Michigan flag with the motto "Tuebor," meaning "I will defend," across the bottom.
Michigan, while trailing in the all-time series 32-45 (MSU claims it's 31-46-1?), also trails 18-22 since the inception of the State Pride Flag. Despite this record, Michigan has managed to supposedly win 11 of the 19 season series. Michigan has swept twice and been swept 4 times, the other 13 years have been splits. I'm not certain how tie breaker rules work.
This game has been moved to the Breslin Center as East Lansing expects a large crowd. This is the second straight year that the game at Michigan State will be played in the larger arena. Michigan lost there last year, and the Spartans do own a perfect 4-0 record all time in Breslin. We'll see on TV just how loud the Spartans can make it. Knowing their hatred of all Michigan teams ranked higher than they are, my bet is pretty loud.
As far as this year's Spartan team, they come in at 14-6 (2-2 BigTen) with a ranking of 33rd (other's receiving votes) in this week's AVCA rankings and own a #18 RPI. They own a 2-1 record against ranked opponents, beating then #12 USC and then #12 Illinois; they were swept at home by #1 Penn State in their last game.
Michigan State is lead in kills by junior right-side/outside hitter Megan Schatzle. Megan is the younger sister of former MSU All-American outside hitter Ashley Schatzle, but she's not nearly as dominant as Ashley was. Megan will predominately play the right side, but she gets plenty of sets as she leads the team with 3.13 kills per set.
MSU will split outside hitting between sophomore Becca Zlabis and redshirt sophomore Jenilee Rathje. They average 2.73 and 2.53 kills per game respectively, which is pretty low for BigTen standards.
The lack of hitting is made up in their block. MB Vanessa King is averaging 1.03 per game while her alternate, Mischelle Nelson is averaging 0.97. As a team, they average 2.4 blocks per set, which happens to be exactly what our opponents average against us.
The key to this game, much like against Penn State, will be playing a clean service game. Michigan needs to put the pressure on the Spartans with our solid serves. We need to limit the errors and keep a level head.
The other matchup to watch is how we block Schazle. Normally, you would use a combination of your middle blocker and right side hitter against an outside hitter, leaving your outside hitter with help from the middle blocker against their right side. Juliana isn't a huge blocking threat (she's definitely a great offensive player and pretty good passer as well), so we're going to need a solid performance from Rood and Fletcher to help support that side.
|Serve Errors||207||Service Errors||151||MSU|
|Serve Recep (SR)%||.944||Serve Recep (SR)%||.945||PUSH|
|Pass Errors||17||Pass Errors||29||UM|
|AVG Oppo RPI||69.75||AVG Oppo RPI||82.7||Slightly UM|
Michigan Head Coach John Beilein
On the announcement of Bill Martin’s retirement as Athletic Director ... "Bill's commitment and positive support for our program's transition since the day I arrived has been remarkable. The persistent dedication he has continued to show in getting our new Player Development Center off the ground has taken a tremendous effort and we are very appreciative for that. We are saddened with his announcement today, however we are truly happy he has reached this point in his life. He has accomplished so much in Ann Arbor, at the University of Michigan and throughout his career, we know he will enjoy this much deserved time with his family."
Senior Athletic Director and Former Head Football Coach Lloyd Carr
In 2000 when Bill Martin became the athletic director at Michigan, we were well behind our peers from a facilities standpoint. Today, we are at the forefront and the monumental changes that Bill and his team have orchestrated have positioned Michigan Athletics in excellent position for decades to come.
The athletic campus is not Bill’s only legacy but it will be an enduring legacy. Every coach and student-athlete who compete here in the future and all Michigan fans will benefit from Bill Martin’s vision and hard work. Personally, I have much admiration for the dramatic improvements at Michigan Stadium and the efforts in pushing forward on the Al Glick Field House. I join the many in expressing our appreciation and gratitude.
Additional Background Information on U-M team accomplishments during Martin’s tenure:
Since 2000-01, Martin’s first full academic year as director of athletics, through 2008-09, Michigan teams won 72 conference regular-season or tournament championships, with a high of 11 titles in 2003-04 and eight apiece in 2004-05 and 2007-08. The Wolverines recorded 35 top-five national finishes during that same span, highlighted by eight top-fives in 2003-04.
During Martin’s tenure, U-M claimed two national championships, with field hockey in 2001 earning the school’s first national title in a women’s team sport and softball winning the 2005 NCAA Women’s College World Series.
In case you need it, here’s the breakdown ...
57 conference championships
12 conference tournament titles
3 conference regular-season dual-meet titles (wrestling)
Expected Points - Offense
|Off||G||Expected Points||Actual Points||Diff||Drives|
Michigan and Penn State both dominate the points vs expected metric. What is interesting is the huge gap in drives per game. Michigan's pace is worth 2.5 more drives per game than Penn State's.
Expected Points - Defense
|Def||G||Expected Points||Actual Points||Diff||Drives|
Penn State, aided by their weak schedule, dominates expected points defense, and ranks second only to Alabama nationally at nearly -13 points per game. The drives/game theme holds here as Michigan's defense is facing over 2.5 more drives per game than Penn State's defense is facing.
Offense - Season+
The Big 10's rep as a poor offensive conference continues to hold for this year. I will get into it more below with the conference rankings, but Penn State's +6 barely cracks the top 20 nationally. Michigan comes in at a solid #2, driven completely from the conference's #1 rated rush offense.
Defense - Season+
Here is where you see Penn State's expected points rank knocked down, but still strong. When adjusting for competition, Iowa's defense is 2 points better than anyone else in the conference and Michigan sicks back in the middle of the conference. The pass defense is in a virtual tie with PSU for third at +4 per game but the real struggle is in the rush defense, over -2 points per game and 10th in the conference with only Illinois being worse.
ST - All - Per Game
A couple of the ST categories I am still working on getting them index correctly, but the delta's and ranks are good. Michigan is very good in Kick (1st), KR (3rd) and Punt (1st), and bad in KO (9th), PR (9th).
Team - Turnovers
|Team||Fum Lost||Int Thrown||Fum Forced||Passes Int||Total|
Here is a new chart for this week. Shows which teams have seen the most value gain or loss from turnover plays. Even after the Buckeye's meltdown at Purdue last weekend, the Buckeye's are still +30 on the season (and Purdue is -28). Michigan is a down a little over a TD (-8) due to turnovers on the season but Penn State is even worse, coming in at -13, both due largely to a gap on fumbles lost vs fumbles recovered.
Big 10 drops down to 6th in the overall conference rankings. They are the only BCS conference that grades out below zero in either offense or defense with a -.3 per game per team on offense.