This year, no one UM receiver is even remotely close to 1,000+ yards. The top of the list is RS Fr. Roy Roundtree with 318 yards. Virtually all of Michigan's receivers with 8 catches or more this season have YPC in double digits: Roundtree (13.8), Mathews (12.4), Odoms (12.4), Hemingway (17.5), Stonum (15.8), Koger (13.8).
I was looking back at some of RR's receiver stats at Tulane, Clemson and West Virginia. When he took the job at WVU in 2001 he had already coached three previous circa 1,000 yard receivers:
WR PJ Franklin, Tulane, 1,216 yrds, 10 TDs (1998)
SB Jujuan Dawson, Tulane, 1,030 yrds, 12 TDs (1998)
WR Rod Gardner, Clemson, 1,084 yrds, 4 TDs (1999)
WR Rod Gardner, Clemson, 956 yrds, 6 TDs (2000)
At WVU RR didn't get a 1,000 yard receiver until year 3, when QB Rasheed Marshall was in his 2nd year at QB:
WR Chris Henry, WVU, 1,006 yrds, 10 TDs (2003)
Rodriguez never had another 1,000+ receiver since 2003, though Chris Henry game close again in 2004 (872 yrds, 12 TDs) and so did Darius Reynaud back in 2007 (735 yds, 12 TDs).
Michigan's roster for 2010 is so WR/SB-rich for 2010, it's almost sickening. With two experienced sophomore QBs, the passing game should improve somewhat in 2010, as should the receiver play. Of the 8 receivers with 10 catches or more in 2009, 5 will return to the lineup in 2010. Michigan's youth and experience level at running back in 2010 might also prompt a little more throwing.
If there is a candidate for achieving the 1,000 yard mark in 2010 would have to be Roundtree, because in just 5 games he has as many receptions (23) as Greg Mathews, more yardage than any other receiver and more TD catches (3). Roundtree doesn't have blazing speed, but he's been an excellent possession receiver and his YPC are impressive for a RS freshman.
Part one, the sweatervest kidnapping
As a kid, Tressel was kidnapped once. He was standing in front of his schoolyard, and a black sedan pulls up. And two guys get out, and they say to him, does he wanna go away with them to a land, where everybody is fairies and elves, and he can have all the comic books he wants and chocolate and wax lips and dress up in vests. And he said "yes", and he got into the car with them, 'cause he figured, "What the hell", he was home that week-end from college anyhow,
Part 2, the agony of his parents
The kidnappers drive him off, and they sent a ransom note to his parents. And his father has bad reading habits, so he gets into bed at night with the ransom note, and he read half of it, and he got drowsy and fell asleep, then he lent it out.
Meanwhile they take him to Toledo, bound and gagged, and his parents finally realize that he's kidnapped. They snap into action immediately: they rent out his room.
Part 3, the final conflict
The ransom note says for his father to leave a thousand dollars in a statue of Woody Hayes in Columbus. He has no trouble raising the thousand dollars, but he gets a hernia carrying Woody.
The FBI surround the house, "Throw the kid out,", they say, "give us your guns, and come out with your hands up."
The kidnappers say "We'll throw the kid out, but let us keep our guns, and get to our car."
The FBI says "Throw the kid out, we'll let you get to your car, but give us your guns."
The kidnappers say "We'll throw the kid out, but let us keep our guns - we don't have to get to our car."
The FBI says "Keep the kid."
The FBI decides to lob in teargas, but they don't have teargas, so several of the agents put on the death scene from Carmen—well, actually the death scene that inspired Carmen Ohio, the Buckeye’s oldest school song, which was composed on a train ride home from Ann Arbor, after OSU suffered an 86-0 loss to the Wolverines.
Tearstricken, his abducters give themselves up. They are sentenced to fifteen years on a chaingang, and they escape, in 4 groups of 6 each chained together at the ankle. They get by the guards posing as two immense letter O’s followed by the letters “H” and “I”, spelling O-O-H-I, and inspiring OSU marching band later to re-enact this scene at each game.
*(as once told to me by a source who wishes to remain anonymous and spends his spare time plagiarizing Woody Allen night club routines).
9. Houston Baptist's roster contains 8 players that have transferred from other programs, with 4 of those players being starters. Their nickname is the Huskies.
8. This is Houston Baptist's 3rd year as an NCAA Division I team. They spent the previous 15 years in the NAIA.
7. Houston Baptist finished last year 5-25 and lost their top 4 scorers.
6. The starting combo guard for Houston Baptist is Wendell Preadom. Wendell transferred from Wichita State, presumably because of lack of playing time. He played in nearly every game their in his first 3 seasons, but never started more than 3 games in a season. He was part of the Shocker's team that reached the Sweet 16 in 2006.
5. Mario Flaherty is their starting Center. He was named to the JUCO top 100 Honorable Mention list in 2007. He also holds the record for rebounds in a career at his JUCO school (Skyline College) at 349 in 2 seasons.
4. Houston Baptist was an NAIA power under Ron Cottrell. He resurrected the program after 2 years of absence. He began coaching there in 1991 and since then has posted a record of 379-208.
3. In 2002-03 Houston Baptist averaged 100.4 points per game.
2. They currently average 56.7 points per game. They are 0-3, dropping contests to S. Alabama, Sacramento State, and Rice during a 3 day tournament hosted by Rice.
1. Mario Flaherty might be their best all around player averaging 13 ppg and 9 rpg. However, Andrew Gonzalez is a small forward that will probably be their go to guy on offense. He averages 11 points per game.
I know that was a little more than 10 facts, but I was bored at work. GET TO CRISLER ON FRIDAY!!!!!!!! Go Blue!
QuarterbacksNational POW: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas vs Troy +20 (405 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT)
Big Ten POW: Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin vs Michigan +19 (240 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT)
|Kirk Cousins||Michigan State||9||6.3||6.8||145.1||232||8.22||62%||1.6||0.6|
|Daryll Clark||Penn State||10||5.5||5.1||134.6||223||7.48||60%||1.6||0.9|
|Terrelle Pryor||Ohio State||11||3.8||4.2||131.2||157||7.42||55%||1.4||0.8|
|Keith Nichol||Michigan State||7||-0.2||0.3||129.6||76||7.93||52%||0.6||0.4|
The top five remain unchanged from last week and after his Big 10 POW against Michigan last week, Scott Tolzien moves up to #6. Pryor and Forcier's numbers are surprisingly comparable across the board.
Running BacksNational POW: Toby Gerhart, Stanford vs USC +8 (169 yds, 3 TD)
Big 10 POW: Evan Royster, Penn St vs Indiana +7 (134 combined yds, 2 TD)
|Evan Royster||Penn State||10||1.7||2.4||17||88||0.6||5.3|
|Brandon Saine||Ohio State||11||0.7||1.0||10||52||0.1||5.0|
|Larry Caper||Michigan State||9||0.4||0.7||10||42||0.7||4.0|
|Jordan Hall||Ohio State||6||0.2||0.6||8||41||0.2||5.2|
|Dan Herron||Ohio State||8||-2.0||-1.3||14||54||0.9||3.8|
A lot of movement at the top this week. Royster jumps up to #1 after a big week and John Clay falls to #3 since Michigan's weak rush defense negated a lot of his value last Saturday. The Buckeyes carries are relatively split, with no one back controlling a large share of the carries or value.
National POW: Danario Alexander (back to back) Missouri vs Kansas St +13 (10 rec, 200 yards 3 TDs)
Big Ten POW: Nick Toon Wisconsin vs Michigan +12 (5 rec, 98 yards 2 TD)
|Devier Posey||Ohio State||11||5.6||2.3||4.3||63||14.7||0.6|
|Derek Moye||Penn State||9||5.1||1.8||4.2||68||16.1||0.4|
|Blair White||Michigan State||10||5.1||3.0||5.1||66||12.9||0.6|
|Keshawn Martin||Michigan State||6||4.0||2.4||2.0||42||20.9||0.5|
|Graham Zug||Penn State||9||3.9||2.7||4.1||47||11.5||0.6|
|B Cunningham||Michigan State||10||3.8||1.9||4.1||54||13.2||0.3|
|D Sanzenbacher||Ohio State||10||3.7||2.9||2.6||50||19.0||0.6|
Keith Smith drops back into a virtual tie with Eric Decker and there are still no Wolverines on the list. Posey and Sanzenbacher from OSU both make the list, with Posey coming in 4th in the Big 10.
The most frequent questions seems to relate to a statement, by Sam Web on WTKA, that early enrollees can no longer be counted against the previous class. If you search on that topic you will find that most of the results are message board posters from various schools, but little in the way of authoritative content, so I went to the 2009-2010 NCAA Division 1 Manual.
What follows is an FAQ regarding scholarship rules for the 2009-2010 academic year:
How many scholarships can be awarded for football each year?
126.96.36.199 Bowl Subdivision Football. [FBS] There shall be an annual limit of 25 on the number of initial counters (per Bylaw 15.02.3.1) and an annual limit of 85 on the total number of counters (including initial counters) in football at each institution. (Revised: 1/10/91 effective 8/1/92, 12/15/06)
Are athletic scholarships good for four years or are they renewed each year?
15.3.3 Period of Institutional Financial Aid Award.
188.8.131.52 One-Year Period. If a student’s athletics ability is considered in any degree in awarding financial aid, such aid shall neither be awarded for a period in excess of one academic year nor for a period less than one academic year (see Bylaw 15.01.5). (Revised: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)
184.108.40.206.1 Exceptions. An institution may award athletically related financial aid to a student-athlete for a period of less than one academic year only under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective
(a) Midyear Enrollment. A student-athlete whose first full-time attendance at the certifying institution during a particular academic year occurs at midyear (e.g., the beginning of the second semester or second or third quarter of an academic year) may receive a financial aid award for the remainder of that academic year. (Revised: 5/9/06)
Does a player who enrolls in January count as part of the prior year's recruiting class or the current recruiting class?
Since early enrollees do not actually sign their scholarship until Signing Day could a player technically enroll in school then change his mind and go somewhere else before a scholarship is actually signed?
220.127.116.11.2 Recruited Student-Athlete Entering after Fall Term, Aided in First Year. [FBS/FCS] A student-athlete recruited by the awarding institution who enters after the first term of the academic year and immediately receives institutional financial aid (based in any degree on athletics ability) shall be an initial counter for either the current academic year (if the institution’s annual limit has not been reached) or the next academic year. The student-athlete shall be included in the institution’s total counter limit during the academic year in which the aid was first received.
The answer is apparently yes, since the athlete is technically a student and not an athlete until the scholarship is signed, he could, if he so desired change his mind and go somewhere else.
If players are recruited that play multiple sports do they count against both sports scholarship limits?
What rule changes are proposed that might affect scholarship rules?
15.5.9 Multi-Sport Participants.
18.104.22.168 Football. [FBS/FCS] In football, a counter who was recruited and/or offered financial aid to participate in football and who participates (practices or competes) in football and one or more sports (including basketball) shall be counted in football. A counter who was not recruited and/or offered financial aid to participate in football and who competes in football and one or more sports (including basketball) shall be counted infootball. (Revised: 1/10/95 effective 8/1/95, 1/9/96 effective 8/1/96)
In Proposal No. 2009-48, the Southeastern Conference wants to limit to 28 the number of Football Bowl Subdivision student-athletes who may sign a National Letter of Intent or an institutional offer of financial aid from the first signing day through May 31. The proposal would curb instances of “over-signing” that have the potential to leave some prospects without a scholarship.
Current rules allow FBS institutions to provide scholarships to 25 new student-athletes per year. However, some schools traditionally have signed more than that to protect themselves in the event that some prospects do not qualify academically. The SEC set a cap of 28 for its own institutions earlier this year, and at that time conference leaders said they viewed the letter of intent as an institutional commitment to a prospect who is capable of contributing academically and athletically. The Big Ten has a similar policy. (source: NCAA)
Based on the information I could find, it seems to me that the rule regarding applying scholarships to the previous season hasn't changed. Therefore, Michigan can exceed the 25 scholarship limit assuming they didn't have a full class of 25 last year and they don't exceed the 85 player cap.
Scout.com tracks eligibility by class for each school and shows Michigan had 21 players in last year's class leaving room for four players who enroll early to be applied to that class. This suggests that we could sign a total of 29. However, according to Scout, Michigan has 66 players on the current roster with remaining eligibility.
Reviewing the list we can remove Helmuth, Clemons, and Cissoko bringing us to 63. Seniors with eligibility remaining are Cone, Sheridan, Dorrestein, Ferrara, Schilling, Banks, Ezeh, Mouton, and Wright. I assume we retain all of those players except Cone, Sheridan, and Wright, so that brings us to 60 returning players. If Kovacs and Leach are given scholarships we're up to 62. Since we already have 20 players in the class it looks like we only have room for three or five more depending on the status of Kovacs and Leach.
This all made sense to me until I compared our roster to other schools currently with top 25 ranked classes according to Scout. Here's what I found:
Most of the teams, when you combine current roster players with eligibility with the incoming class, will show classes of 95 players or less. It's probably safe to assume that those schools will be able to reach the 85 player limit with normal attrition. However, several of those schools will have over 100 scholarship eligible students. I realize Brian has addressed this before, but I don't understand how schools like Penn State, Alabama, and West Virginia will have over 90 scholarship players on their rosters before the new class arrives?
Clearly scholarship limits are a complex subject and I don't claim to be an expert. I hope you found the information above helpful even if it creates more questions.
I put a bit of effort in cleaning up my code to address some of the problems from last week:
- Undefeated and winless teams: I added the fictitious tie. Now there's a path from every team to every other team. While this is a hack, it's reasonable and about as far as I really care to go with it. I also calculated the round-robin winning percentage (RRWP) and KRACH strength of schedule (SOS). These are useful metrics for comparing teams that don't line up very well, as per John Whelan's KRACH site. Now the undefeated and winless teams can be compared with multiple data elements.
- Rasmus: Open source: The original Pairwise and KRACH code was freely given to me years ago by John Whelan. This code is my own, based only on the information given in his KRACH site; given that, I'm comfortable sharing my code, so long as the user gives due credit to John and Ken Butler.
- joeyb: Undefeated teams will always rate better than teams with losses: To investigate this, I created a fictitious team that was 10-0 with wins against only the bottom ten teams. It rated out at #37, well below several 1- and 2-loss teams.
- SpartanDan: Top teams are ranked backwards: You are correct, sir. I mistakenly assumed that a larger deviation from predicted meant a less accurate KRACH. This has been fixed, as in 1) above, with the RRWP, SOS and fictitious tie.
- Seth9: The rating doesn't apply to college football: You may be right on this. It's still curious, and now trivial, for me to crunch the numbers. EDIT: But is this any less applicable than any of the computer ratings used in the BCS? And it certainly does not have the bias and politicking associated with opinion polls.
Again, this rating includes all D-IA games through 15 November 2009:
|Team||BlogPoll||BCS||Rank||KRACH||RRWP||Record Rank||W||L||T||Win %||SOS Rank||SOS|
|Middle Tennessee State||64||0.943||0.490||8||7||3||0||0.700||102||0.440|
|North Carolina State||84||0.510||0.385||22||2||6||0||0.250||50||1.326|
|San Diego State||92||0.303||0.303||20||3||6||0||0.333||93||0.562|
|New Mexico State||113||0.079||0.141||23||2||7||0||0.222||118||0.236|
|San Jose State||116||0.048||0.101||29||0||8||0||0.000||75||0.815|