Diaries

Schedule == expected quality of defenses that will be faced

Known Unknowns: Future events

Unknown Unknowns: I don't know

The Tiers:

Work In Progress: 130 and under; historically roughly 60% of QBs with at least 100 attempts

Solid QB: 135; 10%

Good QB: 140; 10%

Great QB: 145+; 20%

Predicting worse than 130 is just mean and that's not a goal of mine. A performance at or below level requires an unskilled player or a lot of bad things to stack on each other. Either way I don't expect the guy to be a significant threat. I simply reference those things in the thesis about my expectation. Likewise predicting over 145 takes a really good situation. Precision beyond this is just asking to be wrong.

2016 Post Mortem

7-7-3 is pretty ho hum. Oh well…onward.

Michigan’s 2017 OOC Opponents

Oarsman, Minnesota, Time is but a Theory

I mean, what’s he *supposed* to look like? P.J. Fleck is obviously examining his new roster ala A Clockwork Orange looking for a QB.

[crickets]

Help me out here, BISB, you’re better with the jokes.

[crickets]

Projection: better than Mitch Leidner. That feels harsh yet also accurate.

[crickets]

OK then.

Projection: 125

Chayce Crouch, Illinois, Jr

Crouch came in for Illinois when Lunt got hurt (again) last year, but he also got hurt so we don’t have a whole lot to go on with respect to how good he might be. Illinois has some decent running backs I expect the coaching staff to ease him in and see how he does. The receiving corps is also a bit lacking.

Projection: 130

Nathan Stanley, Iowa, So

Iowa has named Stanley the man to take over for Beathard. They also are going with a new OC (Brian Ferentz) but Ferentz is an internal promotion so I expect Iowa to be Iowa.

Looks like the OL will be solid and the only hole they need to fill is the loss of Riley McCarron. Nate will play like a first year player and I expect Iowa to have a run oriented offense.

Projection: 130

Tyrell Pigrome, Maryland, So

Another guy who hasn’t played. DJ Durkin named him starter and they have some good running backs and a plus OL available. Offensive Coordinator Walt Bell is a crafty mofo, too, so bump up the spook meter a notch or two. Three to be safe.

Projection: 130

Kyle Bolin, Rutgers, RS-Sr

Chris Laviano just wanted to play football. I thought his 2015 campaign was OK and while 2016 posed some challenges, I thought he’d be able to stitch a few things together and look solid. Instead [that happened], he transferred, and is now a Lacrosse player. And that, friends, is how you get Rutgerzed.

Enter Kyle Bolin, graduate transfer from Louisville. He got buried by Lamar Jackson but he played some in 2015 and he played like a guy playing for the first time: not great, Bob. That is to say that he was a marginal starter which is probably why Louisville played an eventual Heisman winner instead. Rutgers added a bunch of other transfers to try to shore things up so, maybe they’re all starters who got jammed behind eventual Heisman winners too?

Kyle Bolin just wants to play football…

Projection: 130

David Blough, Purdue, Jr

Blough’s first year as starter wasn’t great, Bob. However, the schedule he faced was actually pretty tough. Now there’s regime change in West Lafayette which usually limits the progress a quarterback shows from one year to another. In this case, though, the new HC has a good reputation for his work with QBs so that could be a positive. Regardless, Purdue's passing game could improve and still not be very good.

Projection: 130

Tyler Lewerke, Michigan State, RS-So

Lewerke showed some nice things in limited game time last season but not enough for me to extrapolate any kind of expectation for this year. He’s a good runner and that might prove handy since MSU’s OL is expected to be a hot mess once again. The ability to run should mean Lewerke shouldn’t have to force the ball when the play breaks down so I think his INT rate will be low. The receiving corps is decimated and LJ Scott is a good running back so I’d expect State to be a run first offense until such a time as they can feel more confident in the passing game.

Projection: 130

Tanner Lee, Nebraska, RS-Jr

Tanner Lee is one tough hombre. He played 2 years at Tulane and was sacked 51 times combined in 2014 and 2015. And that’s not counting times he was hit but wasn’t sacked. Naturally, he played pretty poorly.

I suspect the change of scenery will do him well as Nebraska has an experienced OL returning and a decent stable of weapons to work with.

Projection: 130

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern, RS-Jr

Thorson had the benefit of playing with Justin Jackson which forces defenses to protect against the run. Thorson was then able to throw into softer defenses and he generally did OK.  The challenge is in putting up bigger plays and TDs, which he needs some help to improve on.

This year he loses his best receiver (Austin Carr) from last year which is problematic but Jackson remains. It says here that Thorson takes another step in improving his completion percentage and improves his passer rating despite the loss of Carr.

Projection: 135

Alex Hornibrook, Wisconsin, RS-So

My 2016 preview was pretty good, man.

If it were me, I’d go with the other guy so I didn’t have to break in another QB next year…

It didn’t quite play out like that (Stave got hurt, sorta) but, come on man…I’m trying to predict the future; ‘tis murky. The other guy in this case was Hornibrook. He did what first year starters do: they aren’t great.

Wisconsin looks to have a proper Badger OL in place this year with some outside threats available, both of which bode well for Hornibrook.

Projection: 135

Richard Lagow, Indiana, RS-Sr

I expected more out of Lagow last year but that was me probably giving Kevin Wilson’s scheme too much credit. Indiana lost a bunch of NFL talent off of the 2015 offense and then suffered key injuries to boot. There’s not a scheme on the planet that can cope with all that. Lagow’s SFRs are generally consistent with his overall rating except for TD rate. Lagow needed 6 more TDs to get is TD rate to the expected level for a 128.8 passer rating, which would have in turn boosted his rating to 133 which is in the “solid qb” range. Playing without Sammie Cobbs Jr. probably hurt Lagow and IU quite a bit.

This year they get Cobbs back as well as some of their injured OL but now have the specter of offensive regime change to deal with after Wilson got the boot. Usually that portends bad things for an offense but if the OL can be decent, then I think IU’s offense will be OK though not as good as they had been under Wilson. If things break right, who knows IU might still be the pain in the ass we’ve come to enjoy (ish).

Projection: 135

Trace McSorley, Penn State, Jr

McSorley 2016 is the exact reason I find this exercise to be useful. If you’ve read these entries over the years you’ll recall that CMP% and INT% are the categories I believe best summarize a QBs decision making and passing skill. The other two I believe are so largely influenced by the rest of the team and scheme that they reflect on the the offense as a whole more than they do the QB. McSorley’s breakdown shows that his passer rating was mostly due to the chuck it and pray nature of their passing attack last year. Don’t get me wrong, it was a really good place for him to embark his career from but his performance is very vulnerable to mean regression if you ask me.

Looking ahead to this year, McSorely loses his go to downfield threat in Chris Godwin. But, more importantly, the OL looks like its poised to improve from last season. A big reason Penn State’s offense relied on the deep passing game so much was that Saquon Barkley was so boom-bust last year, and that was because the OL was inconsistent. If you have to pass, why not go for it all…especially when it continues to work? So, better OL in this case means fewer occasions where taking risks makes sense which means you need fewer heroics from McSorley. I think he personally will take a step forward but his passer rating will fall. And that’s OK.

Projection: 140

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State, Sr

Barrett is pretty much a known commodity at this point. He had that  insanely good freshman campaign but hasn’t really ever found that groove since Tom Herman left. The team hasn’t really had stability either in the press box or on the field since then and I think that has affected Barrett’s numbers overall. Hard to prove though.

This year there’s another new OC (Kevin Wilson) that should ultimately help improve OSU’s passing attack but it’s tough to guage how much of that improvement will be manifest in the first season. Ohio State’s OL returns nearly intact but their nearly all of their skill players need to be replaced so those things pose headwinds he’ll be fighting against. The roster has the guys, though, we just don’t know their names yet.

Projection: 140 

Wilton Speight, Michigan, RS-Jr

Speight's 2016 performance has been covered at length already. The new thing for me here is that all of his single factor ratings were below average and actually below his actual rating. The areas he lagged in the most were YPA and TD% which I usually attribute largely to a QB’s surrounding support but in this case I think these categories correctly show Speight main weaknesses. Hitting a few more of the long balls he attempted last season would have gone a log way to improving his overall rating and the team’s record.

Alas, breaking in new receivers may not be the best way to go about improving one’s YPA and TD%-. The new guys have talent though, and if the OL can get it sufficiently together Speight will have a chance to pilot a really good offense. How good Michigan’s 2017 offense will be will hinge largely on how much improvement Speight is able to show on the field. I think he’ll be first team all conference.

Projection: 145