chance of bowl: 13.6%
[EDIT] You know it's been a long season since this was originally titled "Maryland". Just banking these beforehand, I guess[/EDIT]
One of these days I'm going to put in less work on writing these than the coaching staff did in preparing for the game. They just keep setting the bar so low, though.
Best: Semi-competent loss
It's come to this, hasn't it. Not moral victories or BS like that, but after being destroyed by a cadre of mid-level BCS teams and Notre Dame, Michigan finally looked semi-competitive against another BCS team. And Rutgers is at least a bowl team, something Michigan sure isn't right now. I always figured Michigan would have a close loss like this during the year, but the expectation was that it would be a rare occurrence of bad luck and incompetence instead of, I guess, a sign of growth and competence in year 4.
Ugh. Moving on.
Worst: Reset Doesn't Exist
I recently finished reading Console Wars, a sometimes-laborious-but-interesting read about the history of Sega, Nintendo, and (a little bit of) Sony and the video game industry they helped revive in the 80s and 90s. It has its flaws from a narrative perspective, but what it does highlight so well is the evolution of video games from quarter-eating arcade cabinets in pizza parlors and movie theaters to the multi-billion dollar industry have now, spurred on by improvements in technology as well as creativity and game design. The book doesn't go into great detail, but another major innovations was the idea of continued gameplay, of "saves" that allowed players to start the game back up from an earlier time but not having to reset from the beginning. It made the games more fun and allowed more immersion in the narrative; the player had a history with the game and so by starting around the same place later on, that connection wasn't lost through the redundancy of replaying previously conquered levels. And during the game, when everything went to hell, you could return to an earlier, better state and try it again. Suddenly, every misstep wasn't, well...
And this advance brought along some quirks. As a kid who grew up in the era of NES/Genesis/SNES cartridge rentals from Blockbuster Video, it was always a bit of a mixed bag when picked up a game for the weekend. If you were lucky, some guy was 3/4 of the way done with A Link to the Past and you could see how the game ended; if not, you had a cartridge with a busted save battery and you had better hope your mom never turns off Secret of Mana for the weekend (And yes, I know you can always start a new game, but 8-year-old me wasn't above using a leg up if it was presented). But if you did continue an earlier game, you were implicitly endorsing the decisions, and repercussions of those actions, from the player(s) before you. Yeah, Cecil Harvey may be totally powered up, but he's also rolling with a Mage and not an awesome Thief, and there's no easy way to correct for that. It's great to have a chance to influence the future, but it comes with all the history and baggage that you had nothing to do with but now informs all of your decisions going forward.
I'm not going to comment much on the past week; I've said my piece about my issues with the tenor of the movement but I agree that change is necessary going forward; win out or lose out, Hoke and Brandon can't both be here in 2015. Practically speaking the coach being let go is easier but probably more damaging, at least in the short term, because the costs of the transition are so high (coach search, player attrition, recruiting, etc.), especially for a program that seems to have been paying them for 8 years now. Hoke is most likely over his head, but he has pieces of a good staff and I still hold that his ceiling is a competent program that wins 8-9 games a year; considering where the sad state the team has been for years, that would be considered a massive improvement. He isn't a long-term solution, but he can be a nice transitional coach to the next hire and helps make UM way more appealing than the tire fire it is right now. Getting rid of Brandon, though, is holistically much better for the school and has a less direct effect on individual teams, not just football, and would help quell the masses to a greater degree than just bringing in a new guy to run the football team. I'm not sure, though, if the school administration is ready for such a heady task given the fact Schlissel is new the job himself and seems less interested in dealing with athletics than Bollinger and Coleman before him. And has been pointed out a couple times already, how do we know he's not going to pick an equally-bad replacement for Brandon.
Regardless of how the next stage in Michigan athletics plays out in the coming months, the incoming parties are going to walking into a situation that is as fractured and toxic as I've seen in all my years following Michigan athletics. People talk about 2007 as a bad environment, but that was mostly tied to wins and losses by the football team; nobody marched through campus because Carr lost to Appalachian State. RR wasn't made to feel particularly welcomed by some of the purported old guard, but Michigan fans had not yet welcomed this little guy into their lives, so spirits were still reasonably high.
|I'll just set my bags on down over here|
When Hoke arrived in 2010 the program was mired in its first sustained stretch of struggles both on and off the field in most fans' lives, but there was still optimism that with a new AD (remember how much we loved Dave Brandon? Ah, it was a simpler time when "You may resume your unbreakable faith in David Brandon's pimp hand." rang true) and Hoke was so Not Rich Rod, and that feeling only intensified with that 2011 season and the solid recruiting that followed.
But now? Unless the new head coach's name begins with "Jim Harbaugh" and ends with "combined with John Harbaugh to create Mecha-Harbaugh", it isn't going to be pretty. Michigan fans have already lived through the hot-shot outsider as well as the "program" guy accepted by the old guard; the next coach isn't going to be able to play either card, and it's a pretty small deck to begin with. This site has chronicled a number of the top candidates, and I've heard everyone from the improbably (Miles) to the gotta-be-trolling impossible (Tressel, Narduzzi). Obviously winning quick and consistently will be the most important, but the next leader of Michigan football is going to have to do it largely without the benefit of the doubt, or at least show marked improvement early on to the bulk of a fanbase burned out by sustained "growing pains".
The environment around this program is terrible, and while change is a necessary antiseptic, it doesn't wipe away the damage already done. The Michigan "brand" is junk right now; Brian spoke about how "THIS ISN'T MICHIGAN" as it relates to the handling of Morris's injury, but what IS MICHIGAN is a bunch of pissed off fans and students angry not just at the current administration but the world. People have their multitudinous reasons for supporting this team, but most of the fandom is rooted heavily in Michigan's consistent winning (and consistency and stability overall) for over a century. It hasn't always been an elite program, but a consistent plugger with occasional spurts of greatness is still high praise, and the program has historically been above the muck and grime that has marred most of other schools (the sanctions passed down because of the Freep "investigation" stung even more because they were the first in Michigan's football history).
Michigan isn't a "winner" anymore. It's not the home of the "Leaders and the Best" anymore either; it's the home of retreads and sycophants, administrative incompetence, wasted potential, and empty suits looking for fireworks and empty headsets not knowing how a clock works. That doesn't mean Michigan is doomed to mediocrity, as every new coach and AD means another chance at redemption and a return to the school's place in the upper-echelon of college sports. But the road back is getting longer and longer, and every step back by the current regime is just another one the next guys need to retake. Player development will likely regress and will need additional attention, recruiting will struggle a bit as different offensive and defensive systems require different players while (hopefully) integrating the current ones as best as possible, and new coaching philosophies will need to be conveyed to college kids who will need to forget what they've been taught for years.
It isn't going to be pretty, and barring a miracle, it is going to take time. The next coach is going to be taking over for a guy who wasted a bunch of goodwill and resources on "toughness" without focus, and the next AD is going to inherit a jaded fanbase that feels ignored and abused by a guy who thought fireworks, noodles, and bitchy emails were good business practices. But unlike in video games, these men and women don't have the option to hit reset, and because of that we need to be patient as they figure out what level they're on and why they don't have any more mana.
Hoke mentioned in the post-game press conference about the resiliency of the team, and it is hard to deny that the team didn't fall apart like it had in previous weeks. Part of that was undoubtedly due to Rutgers being Rutgers and failing to convert on a couple of long drives in the second half, but Michigan didn't let Rutgers run away after that late halftime score, and answered right back after the Knights took a 26-17 lead. And after forcing Rutgers to punt following Michigan's last score, it looked like a team that could absolutely pull out a close win on the road. It's still Rutgers, but given the team's struggles under Hoke it would have been a pretty substantial win.
In particular, I think we should all recognize the performance put forth by Devin Gardner. A week after being benched and basically throw onto the scrap heap, and facing a solid pass rush behind a leaky line, he performed admirably. That interception was pretty terrible and he had a couple of other throws that were off or thrown into double or triple coverage, but he also kept plays alive with his feet, and when the offense belatedly started to run most plays out of the shotgun looked a bit like his old self. It wasn't enough to win, but this performance put into even starker contrast the lunacy of last week and playing Shane Morris. It also, sadly, shows just how much trouble the offense is probably going to be in next year unless the line becomes markedly better. Gardner kept drives alive with his mobility and slowed down the pass rush a but, but without an established run game a less mobile QB like Morris would have been flattened early and often.
Worst: I Don't Understand Reviews Anymore
The refs were all over the map in this game; Michigan had 3 holding calls where probably only one was bang-bang, while Rutgers got called for 2(!) hands-to-the-face calls on defense and 3 personal fouls though not a single holding call despite Willie Henry basically carrying a Rutgers guy on his back a couple of times. Michigan also received a gift spot on a 2nd-down run by Smith that sure seemed to be stopped short and didn't get called for a facemask on a Gary Nova sack.
But that clusterf*ck on Darboh's 3rd-down play takes the cake. Hoke should have challenged the spot instead of calling a TO and then challenging, but given how he handles normal game situations that shouldn't surprise anyone. That said, everyone who saw that play except the video reviewers thought it was a catch, and it was weird seeing the catch be overruled by the referee who seemed farthest away from the play. We've seen tons of those types of sideline catches count before, and if anything Darboh made it look worse because he inexplicably tried to reach out for the first down after he was past the sideline and the ball popped on when it hit the ground.
I know, I know, Michigan deserves blame for playing so poorly that they needed that break late in the game, but it was still a bad call. And it put Michigan is a tough spot where they had to either try a 56-yard kick (which had about a 2% chance of working against a team that leads the country in blocked kicks) or going for it on 4th-and-8. Personally I would have tried to get the first over taking such a long shot, but neither option was appealing.
|It was either this or Liz Phair|
So yeah, pass defense kinda sucked this game. I know they were down Peppers to start and lost Jeremy Clark in the second half, but this was still a terrible performance by the defense given the fact that Gary f'ing Nova was the opposing QB. True, a couple of his throws were the type that happen against good coverage, but far too often Rutger WRs and TEs had 2-3 yard cushions on short passes, allowing them to either break tackles for extra yardage or even just fall down for the first. This was especially true on 3rd down, where Rutgers converted 8 of 16. Normally you'd say "50% conversion rate isn't horrible", but when you are allowing Rutgers to get to 16 3rd downs on only 10 meaningful drives, it also means you aren't kicking them off the field much either. Rutgers had 3 drives of 10 or more plays, and all of them featured multiple 3rd-down conversions. To make matters worse, the ghost of GERG had apparently been awaken from its eternal slumber, as a number of these conversions were on 3rd and long. Early in the 2nd quarter it was Gary Nova juking Bolden for 20 yards on 3rd-and-16 deep in Rutgers territory, and later it was a 26-yard pickup on 3rd-and-9 and a very simple dink-and-dunk for 7 yards on 3rd-and-4. Ultimately those drives ended in punts, but in a close game the loss of field position was felt immensely.
The passiveness shown in coverage remains troubling for a number of reasons, but most especially because there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason for when it is deployed. Sometimes corners line up 2 yards off the receiver on 1st down, and then on 4th down and 3 yards Ramon Taylor is giving a WR oodles of real estate; only saving the conversion because of a nice hit that threw Grant off a bit as the ball arrived. The seams are constantly open, and even though the windows may be small they exist so consistently in coverage that most QBs can hit them with regularity. It's feels like in Madden when you just let the computer pick the defense and they settle on some generic cover-2 that doesn't really matter to you because you are always rushing from the outside with JJ Watt. Unfortunately, the pass rush isn't getting there and all that cushion is inviting lots of short completions with copious YAC. There are still some great playcalls and performances at times, but the pass defense again seems like a B+ outfit on a team that expects/needs an A performance every week.
Playcalling arguments given, this in no way overshadows the insanity of Gary "Wrecking Ball" Nova throwing for record-setting yardage. It's a cheap CS joke, but I looked up the number and I couldn't find it anywhere on the internet. And it was a holistic failure by the defense; everyone will point out that Countess was burned on the 80-yarder to Turzill and failed to stay with Tsimis on the score to end the half, but this entire secondary has 1 interception and that courtesy of a duck by Miami. The linebackers get lost in coverage far too often, the defensive line can't generate consistent pass rush, and the safeties are so thin and inexperienced save for Wilson that they either dive toward the line too quickly or play too tentatively and let too much happen in front of them. I'm sure not having a guy who actually played/coached the secondary previously trying to install a very intricate defense doesn't help, but (not to sound cliche) sometimes players just need to make plays. I don't know the exact defensive playcalls or how these kids are being coached, but I kinda of doubt it entails trailing WRs for 4 yards or biting on double moves every time. It is particularly jarring to see a senior like Countess, who coming into the season looked like a competent DB at worst, seem absolutely lost out there. And while we cam talk about his lack of closing speed or ability to stay with speedy receivers, but he obviously was able to hold up reasonably well (Lockett aside) until this year. It's likely a combination of confusion amongst the players and learning a new system that isn't expertly understood by the staff, but a game like this should not happen.
Worst: I HATE Prevent Defenses
Now, I recognize that there are many different types of formations and playcalls at the end of the half that are designed to bleed clock in exchange for yardage, but this year's defense seems absolutely incapable of closing out a half without giving up points. Last week Minnesota marched down the field for a late score, Utah marched down 54 yards in 16(!) plays for a 38-yard FG, Notre Dame before that scored an incredibly easy TD in about 50 seconds to really pull away at the half of that game, and now Rutgers went on an interminable 11 play, 75-yard TD drive in 1:21 (!!) to take the lead right after UM had surged ahead. It was a weird drive to be sure, but Michigan just kept conceding yardage without putting much pressure on Nova, and even when they did get a free blitzer (Frank Clark on 3rd-and-goal), Nova got free and threw the TD. All four of those drives had a huge impact on the games, and it isn't too much a stretch to say that each of those games could have turned out differently had Michigan had held without giving up points.
The team's close management at the end of halves is stupefying, and it further magnifies how terrible UM is at tempo that multiple teams can run up and down the field on them at pace while Michigan can barely run a 2-minute offense in 4. There is a fine line between aggressiveness and recklessness on defense, but Michigan is far behind that line on the passive side that it is killing whatever chances they have to enter halftime with any sense of momentum.
Worst: Fungible Funchess
No to be the bearer of bad news to the coaching staff, but (a) they aren't going to be around next year, and (b) even if they are, Devin Funchess probably isn't. So I see no reason why they continue to "save" him during long stretches of this game. Funchess had 3 catches in the first quarter and then had 2 catches in the 4th quarter, with the only substantial one being a 17-yarder on the last drive for Michigan hat got them deep-ish into Rutgers territory. Funchess is probably a bit hurt and teams are obviously shifting their coverage to him, but no corner on the Rutgers sideline is taller than 6 feet, or 1/2 a foot shorter than Devin. What's the worst that is going to happen if you just throw it up to him - you already had micro-Megatron with Hemingway in 2011 and that worked out swimmingly.
Only MSU and maybe ND and Minnesota have secondaries that should be able to keep up with Funchess, and yet every non-Appalachian State team has been able to bottle him up reasonably well. I'm sure Funchess will explode for 200 yards against OSU when the team is 4-7, but it feels like a waste of a supremely talented player.
I've made most of these complaints/observations before in other games. So here they are in short doses.
Best: Lollipop Fake Punts
Michigan caught one huge break when Rutgers called that fake punt in the second quarter. It was actually a good call, as Michigan was scrambling and allowed the punter to escape behind them to the other side of the field. What saved them, though, was the pass back to the punter with more hangtime than any of UM's punts in this game. You could see the Rutgers punter stare down the swarming Michigan players while the ball just hung in the air and just kind of concede defeat. It was glorious.
Best: The Defensive Line
I saw some internet tough guys calling out Frank Clark for failing to bring down Nova when he had a free-ish run at him to end the half, but otherwise I thought the line did reasonably well. It still can't generate consistent pressure (2 sacks notwithstanding), but it held Rutgers to just under 100 yards rushing if you excise sacks, and that includes the one 20-yard scramble by Nova alluded to before. They also blocked a PAT and generally looked competent with an effective rotation. It's not a dominant unit by any stretch, but it feels like the one part of the defense you can rely on to perform consistently every week.
Worst: Still Waiting
Neither Green nor Smith provided consistent performance in this game. Green averaged 6.2 ypc, but that number is goosed by a low number of carries (14) and two 20+ yard runs and not much else. Green had a great run on the first drive and then another good run on the last UM scoring drive, but that was about it. Smith had his moments and scored another TD, but he also looked indecisive at times and, like Green, didn't always identify the hole quickly. It led to a bunch of stutter-steps and change-of-directions that might work in high school but lead to minimal gains, at best, in college. Hayes continues to look plausible without being realistic, if that makes any sense. He'll get a nice run or short pass and flash some speed, but then you look at the stats and he's barely being used and most of his big runs/plays come on long downs where the defense is conceding some green. But both Green and Smith show just enough hints of explosiveness, of putting it together and being solid college running backs, that it is hard to give up on them yet and hope Isaac turns it around. It probably doesn't matter given the upcoming coaching changes, but this team desperately needs to establish some identity running the ball, or at least figure out what each guy is good at and try to get some run with that instead of this "back by committee" approach that doesn't seem to work for anyone. This is especially true with Gardner back there, as he forces the defense to stay honest and not commit defenders to stop the run so quickly.
Meh: The Offensive Line
This was a horrible matchup coming into the game, as Rutgers led the nation in sacks and Michigan's line led the nation in broken television sets, but they only gave up 3 sacks and the aforementioned holding calls were a mixed bag. Michigan was able to sustain drives unlike in weeks past, and I haven't seen a coach so excited/satisfied about a TD drive like Hoke was following Michigan's last score since I learned about the dangers of "pep pills."
At the same time, the line is a victim of its past at this point. You can see Gardner step back in the pocket and immediately start to worry about getting a helmet in the ribs. At least one of those sacks was a "coverage" sack because Gardner just gave up after his first option was covered and started looking to escape despite the fact he had time. The line is improving in fits and spurts, but at this point they've broken to QBs and I'm not sure how that will change between now and 2015.
Worst: Somebody Count for Gawd's Sake
Another week, another 10 guys on the punt team. At least this time it was a return, but it remains a bewildering problem for this team. I presume that people on the punt team know they are on the punt team. How about those 11 guys always run out on 4th down and let's see what happens. I swear at some point this year Will Hagerup is going to be on a bicycle behind the bench and nobody on the Michigan sideline is even going to notice.
PSU can't really defend all that well, can't block anyone's pass rush, can barely run the ball, and relies almost exclusively on Hackenberg keeping them in games with his arm. Plus they've looked pretty bad on the road. Thus, I fully expect Michigan to give up 500 yards through the air and for every cornerback to be burned on a double move by anyone in a white helmet. Last year's game was Hackenberg's coming-out party, and even without Robinson he looks competent when he gets time in the pocket, or as we like to say around here, Michigan's usual pass rush.
At the same time, Michigan is minus 13 on the year in terms of turnovers; they are bad but certainly not THAT bad. If there are 90,000 bodies in the stands it will be a miracle, but I suspect they'll be treated to (sadly) Michigan's last home win of the year. I want to be wrong about the year, but both IU and Maryland have good enough offenses to beat UM, and while I expect Michigan to not have too much trouble scoring, they probably won't be able to keep up. So this game is essential for any faint hopes of a bowl game, and I expect the team will rally under the lights.
Necessity (ananke) always determines the fate of man.
In the early days, necessity was determined by nature, which is to say “chance,” or “fortune.” We cannot control nature; nature controls us. For the most part. Sir Francis Bacon famously theorized that the purpose of modern science (and for that matter, human enterprise) is to relieve the estate of man.
Well, history teaches us that the human enterprise creates prosperity. Prosperity creates softness. Softness creates first world problems.
We have a first world problem.
Can it be understood by 2500 year old philosophy? Can the power of “nature” and the necessity it derives be fostered and imposed by human beings? Can we substitute ourselves for the random chaos of natural occurrences?
Can we impose ourselves on nature? Can we impose ourselves on ourselves?
If we can, it can only be by numerosity.
People in numbers may impose the forces of necessity that determine beliefs and change the course of human events/history.
According to Thucydides, necessity inverts values. The salutary becomes vice, and its contrary is also true, in the face of necessity. Folksiness and "aw shucks" are the Michigan way when the Sugar Bowl is conquered. They are vice when incompetence results not only in losses but in physical danger to players.
Thucydides also teaches us that necessity determines the content of our poems, our beliefs, our superstitions. The word “dearth” (originally in a poem about famine) is changed to “death” during the plague in Athens at the height of the Peloponnesian War.
“Hoke Springs Eternal” during the sugar bowl season. What change do we make to the “Hoke” mantra during the Hoke era at its nadir?
It depends on the M community and its leaders. What level of ananke can you create in these critical days?
Who amongst you have the daring to guide the forces of nature, create necessity, and become heroes?
Solve this problem Michigan. The B1G, including my school, needs you.
Necessity, as proposed above, must force Dave Brandon and company out, and create a new future.
Big Ten Coaches
Prominent National CFB Coaches
Potential Coaching Options
Les Miles (LSU): 61
Art Briles (Baylor): 59
Gary Patterson (TCU): 55
Ray Horton (Browns DC): 55
Cam Cameron (LSU OC): 54
John Harbaugh (Ravens): 53
Mike Stoops (Oklahoma DC): 53
Todd Bowles (Cardinals DC): 51
Jim Harbaugh (49ers): 51
Todd Graham (Arizona State): 50
Pat Shurmur (Eagles OC): 50
Greg Schiano (Unemployed): 49
Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State): 48
Butch Jones (Tennessee): 47
Chad Morris (Clemson OC): 46
Dan Quinn (Seahawks DC): 45
Bret Bielema (Arkansas): 45
Doug Nussmeier (Michigan OC): 44
Kirby Smart (Alabama DC): 39
Unfortunately Michigan still has seven more games to play this season, including one tonight at Rutgers. For some reason I am previewing this one (probably because I wrote half of this before the Minnesota game, back when I considered it realistic that M might turn the ship around, and don’t want that work to go to waste). Out of a coping mechanism I’m only going to DVR the game, and will spend the afternoon picking Asian pears in the Cascade foothills; then I’ll decide whether to actually watch the thing when I get home. Anyway, I am going to have to cut this intro short on account of a screaming child and the fact that I’m not sure anyone really cares this week anyway.
Well, Go Blue.
When Michigan has the ball…
Run and hide and close your eyes.
1. Inside Zone
With Magnuson injured, Michigan moved Graham Glasgow to LG last week and inserted Kalis. Nobody really noticed because the problems on the field seemed to be the least of M’s problems. Anyway, usually when a team is constantly getting its ass kicked, it’s best to stick to basics (c.f. Al Borges; sigh).
Rutgers runs a 4-3 Under front and usually gets decent penetration with their undersized guys.
LT Mason Cole: Covered; block DE David MIlewski
LG Graham Glasgow: Covered; block DT Darius Hamilton
C Jack Miller: Uncovered; chip DT Hamilton or NT Kenneth Kirksey, block WLB Steve Longa
RG Kyle Kalis: Covered; block NT Kenneth Kirksey
RT Ben Braden: Uncovered; chip DE Djwany Mera, block MLB L.J. LIston
TE Jake Butt: Covered; block DE Djwany Mera
RB – Derrick Green: Receive handoff and head for B-gap outside LG; make one cut and turn N/S
Probably gonna be ugly.
Though Michigan isn’t likely to enjoy much success on the ground against Rutgers, it could be a different story through the air if Devin Funchess is healthy enough to play. Rutgers likes to run Cover 2, which is designed to ensure that corners get help over the top on deep routes. But plays like the Post-Wheel can beat Cover 2 by pairing an inside-breaking route (to occupy the safety) with a deep sideline route (which the corner or other man defender must play one-on-one).
XWR Devin Funchess: Run post route vs. BCB Nadir Barnwell, FS Andre Hunt
RB Derrick Green: Run wheel route against SLB Quentin Gause
LT Mason Cole: Pass protect vs. SDE David Milewski
LG Graham Glasgow: Pass protect vs. DT Kenneth Kirksey
C Jack Miller: Pass protect vs. NT Darius Hamilton
RG Kyle Kalis: Pass Protect vs. NT Kenneth Kirksey
RT Ben Braden: Pass protect vs. WDE Djwany Mera
UTE Jake Butt: Pass protect vs. WDE Djwany Mera, then release to flat
YWR Dennis Norfleet: Run wheel route vs. NCB Anthony Cioffi
ZWR Jehu Chesson: Run post route vs. FCB Gareef Glashen
QB Devin Gardner: 3-step drop from SG; read is on free safety; the post should hold him to the middle of the field—if so, then look for YWR to come open on wheel; if FS widens to pick up wheel route, then XWR should come open on post. If covered, check down to TE in flat.
Funchess & Co. have to like their chances against a Rutgers secondary that’s been banged-up and may have a freshman backup playing FS, but Rutgers has a strong pass rush and has to be equally excited to face the rickety Michigan offensive line. As always, the X-factor is Devin Gardner: if he’s on, M could put up 300+ yards on this D and win going away, if he’s off, well, you’ve seen what happens when he’s off.
When Rutgers has the ball…
3. Outside Zone
Smart Football broke down Kyle Flood’s Outside Zone play in detail before the 2012 Russell Athletic Bowl, in which a 6-6 Virginia Tech team squeezed out a 13-10 victory over 9-2 Rutgers.
Yes, Rutgers really does leave the backside DE unblocked on its Outside Zone play. I don’t know how common this is, but here’s an example of Rutgers running it against Arkansas from a few years back. Guess who makes the tackle? That Arkansas DE looked a lot bigger and slower than Frank Clark; I wouldn’t be surprised if they do things a little differently against M.
WDE Frank Clark: backside pursuit of RB Desmon Peoples
NT Ryan Glasgow: defend backside A-gap
3T Willie Henry: defend playside B-gap
SDE Brennan Beyer: defend playside C-gap
WLB Joe Bolden: defend backside B-gap
MLB Jake Ryan: defend playside A-gap
SLB James Ross: defend playside D-gap (outside TE); set edge (2 yards wide, 2 yards deep) to force run back in, or spill to sideline
I’d probably call this even (or, after last week, maybe even advantage Rutgers) if Paul James was still at RB, but unfortunately he tore his ACL a couple weeks ago and won’t be available. Kyle Flood is a respected OL coach and I expect his guys to play with good technique, but M has a pretty serious edge in raw talent.
4. Smash Corner Flat
The smash-corner concept is ordinarily thought of as a way to hi-low a cornerback against a Cover 2 scheme: the corner route will put a receiver under the safety help, so the CB must decide whether to “sink” and take away the corner route (leaving a receiver open in the flat) or play tight on the flat receiver (opening up space for the QB to hit the corner route). But as Jimbo Fisher explained in a tidy little article , the smash-corner becomes an effective concept against practically any coverage scheme if the slot receiver is able to adjust his route based on how the defense is playing him.
In their last game (against Tulane), Rutgers ran a smash-corner concept off play-action; they caught Tulane in a blitz, and Nova hit the back in the flat for a big gainer. The diagram above shows the same play, as defended by Michigan in its "Quarter-Quarter-Half" scheme (Cover 4 to the field side, Cover 2 to boundary).
BCB Jabrill Peppers: Man coverage vs. WR Janarion Grant
WDE Frank Clark: Pass rush vs. LT Keith Lumpkin
3T Willie Henry: Pass rush vs. RG Chris Muller
NT Ryan Glasgow: Pass rush vs. C Betim Bujari
SDE Brennan Beyer: Pass rush vs. RT Taj Alexander
WLB Joe Bolden: Defend curl/flat zone on weak side
MLB Jake Ryan: Defend underneath middle zone
SLB James Ross: Defend curl/flat zone on strong side vs. RB Desmon Peoples
FS Jerrod Wilson: Cover deep ½ zone vs. WR Janarion Grant
SS Jeremy Clark: Man coverage vs. TE Tyler Kroft
FCB Jourdan Lewis: Man coverage vs. WR Leonte Carroo
Say what you want about Michigan’s defense not quite living up to expectations, but from what I’ve seen the corners are the real deal. A better QB than Nova (such as Mitch Leidner, groan) might be able to pick on Michigan’s LBs and safeties, but with Nova I expect a few balls to wind up being caught by guys in yellow pants.
Scattered showers and mid 60s to start our Saturday. Lots of clouds and fog, but they do start to break up and we see more breaks in the clouds after lunch. Between the showers and the sun, it's a great day for a tailgating hat :) Through the morning winds will be out of the southerly direction around 5mph (just enough to feel it on your skin), but shift midday to come out of the west behind a cold front - picking up to about 10mph (leaves blow about). Piscataway could pick up a 1/4" of rainfall this morning, so take care if you walk on the grass in the afternoon-might be a little soggy! High temperatures in the afternoon will make it up to 70 before dropping back into the 60s.
61 degrees for kickoff! Some clouds have hung on, but they'll continue to diminish further as the 1st half goes on. That will help the temps drop, so keep that in mind as you decide what layers of clothing to carry through the gates. Winds are out of the west at 13mph (enough to see some small branches sway, keep leaves in motion).
Dropping into the upper 50s by the halfway mark, with just a couple of clouds here and there. Winds will remain out of the west at 11mph - just enough to add an extra bit of chill to the evening. Might be a good time to grab a hot chocolate!
A quiet end weather-wise to the game, hopefully not cheering-wise for the Wolverines! High Point Solutions Stadium... that's got to be a good name for a place we can come in and get things back on track right? 52 degrees walking out, with a west wind staying up at 10mph. It will remain at 10mph into the late night, before briefly dropping a tad Sunday morning. Skies stay starry, and temps stay chilly - we'll hit 47 if you'll be out late celebrating, so you'll definitely want the long sleeves then! Sunday will be sunny with highs in the low 60s if you'll be traveling.
If you're staying home... Saturday will start off with some sunshine, but the backside of the low pressure system will bring us more clouds and scattered showers through the afternoon. We'll also be breezier - southwest winds around 20mph (small trees sway) with gusts in the mid 30s (empty garbage cans tip over, you can hear the wind whistle). Chilly! We'll struggle to hit 50, and most in SE MI won't. And the winds will have it feeling closer to 40, then the 30s during game time - brrr! We do get rid of the wind gusts tonight, but keep lots of clouds and also the chance for rain. We do see a little more sun for Sunday, so the temps will reach the low 50s, but scattered rain is still in the forecast - as is wind. Southwest winds will be gusty throughout the day, so keep that in mind if you're driving back. Go Blue and have safe travels, or have fun watching here at home!
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
Get well soon, Shane [AP]
1. The Four Factors
|Expected Pts||Conversion Rate||Bonus Yards||Red Zone|
Surprisingly, this game was close to a draw once you account for field position (the return TD inflates the expected points number). We have another game to add to the defense is good but not great line and another heaping helping of this is a dysfunctional offense.
Michigan’s conversion rate of 50% is woeful. For the season, only SMU, North Texas and Eastern are below 50%. Michigan had no business being at that rate against Minnesota. The 1.06 bonus yards would also be 4th worst in the nation, for a season. But hey, the red zone streak continues. You can’t stop Michigan once they get to the red zone, but you definitely can before they get there.
For the Season [Value (National Rank/B1G Rank)]
|Expected Pts||Conversion Rate||Bonus Yards||Red Zone|
|Offense||24.3 (94/12)||66.3% (90/9)||2.51 (50/8)||6.0 (20/2)|
|Defense||28.1 (81/13)||59.8% (16/4)||1.75 (23/4)||5.5 (87/10)|
The Appalachian State game continues to prop up the season numbers. Michigan’s bonus yards per play drops nearly a full point with week one excluded and their ranking drops into the triple digits. Speaking of triple digits, That’s where Michigan’s field position gap is currently ranked. –3.8 points per game just based on where each drive starts ranks Michigan at 108 out 127 schools in the FBS. State of Michigan schools are first (MSU, +11.2 ppg) and last (EMU, –13.8 ppg) nationally. On defense, Michigan is in the top 25 for both conversion rate and bonus yards per play allowed, but quite a ways away from the national leaders.
2. Individual Performances
Shane Morris, 23 plays: –12.9 pts, –27%
Devin Gardner, 10 plays: +5.8, +1%
Derrick Green, 6 plays: –1.5, –3%
Deveon Smith, 9 plays: +3.1, +8%
Devin Funchess, 12 plays: –1.7, –3%
D. Cobb, 35 plays: +4.4, +3%
M. Leidner, 25 plays: +11.6, +22%
M. Williams, 5 plays: +5.5, +4%
3. Game Chart
The six biggest plays that swung the game
6. –5.6% Cobb runs for 34 yards (early 1st qtr)
5. +6.0% Deveon Smith scores from 10 yards out (early 2nd qtr)
4. –6.5% Leidner scores from 10 yards out on 3rd and 1 for Minnesota’s first score (mid 2nd qtr)
3. +12.4% Ojemuida sacks Leidner to force long FG (mid 3rd qtr)
2. –12.6% Minnesota hits 48 yard field to go up 13 (mid 3d qtr)
1. –16.0% Shane Morris is intercepted and returned for a TD (mid 3rd qtr)
A new piece I’ve put together special for this fun season is the Blame Game. Adding up the win percentage changes by play type to see which types of plays impacted the game the most.
1. –26% Pass offense
2. -15% Opponent kicking
3. –7% Rush offense
All other groups +/- 2%
1 & 3 aren’t much of a surprise. Minnesota’s conversion of a long field goal while the game was still within a possession drove #2.
For the season, rush defense has been the biggest positive (+11%) while the pass offense and the punt team have been major hits.
4. Dumb Punt of the Week
Memphis, Michigan, New Mexico, Texas Tech, Miami (NTM) and Washington all punted in the final five minutes of a game they were trailing by at least 7 points. All faced 10+ yards to convert, but at some point you have to try, right? Trying for all five of these teams meant punting it away, and all five lost on the field, but couldn’t quite pull out the DPotW.
In a completely separate instance from the one noted above, the fighting Bob Davie’s at New Mexico trailed by 11 in the final 10 minutes, faced 4th and 2 at their own 43 versus Fresno State. Fresno State is not good this year, but apparently Davie didn’t want to go for the 2 yards, opting instead to punt the ball away. New Mexico did not win.
5. Outrage quantified
I know we’re contractually obligated to lead with Shane Morris/Dave Brandon but I’m a gunslinger who only plays by his own rules. Above is a chart I put together on a whim based on a tweet from @cdbarker. An attempt to quantify the two parts that Brian later clarified in today’s post. There is an outrage piece that is mostly independent of Michigan’s current record. Then there is a cumulative punishment expectation where this is a piece of the larger picture.
Five games in the numbers have finally turned on Michigan, well after everyone else has. Rutgers hasn’t been that good, but they have definitely been better than Michigan.
Rutgers 20 Michigan 14