I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
All right so I am going to start this off by saying 2 things #1 UM’s win over WMU is great for everyone. ND fans are more excited about this game than before, obviously the entire stadium was rocking with support of UM and the coaching staff and the entire team looked like they were having a great time. Although everyone on the team didn’t experience last year, it looked like they all came together to put any fears of that repeating fully to bed. I fully congratulate UM on their win and I mostly wish them success in the future.
Before we move on to #2 I want to put up this disclaimer: You probably will not like what I am going to post, and I won’t hold it against anyone if it results in some lashing out, I was prepared for that long before I registered. Also remember that quite a few posters actually requested this write up so here it goes….
#2 ND is going to tear UM's offense apart, too harsh? :). So if you’re still with me, you would probably ask why is that? Nevada was a great game for week 1 with their running QB a perfect example of what to expect next week, a prolific running game to test the entire defense against. Not only did the defense perform well they shut Nevada out. The ND offense spoke for itself, 500+ yards of total offense, 300+ of it through the air. It looked like the Hawaii game all over again. If your still still reading, please don't take that statement #2 literally, it was just meant to weed out the undesirables
ND just faced a more refined, experienced and dynamic QB in Kaepernick, than either Denard or Tate are right now, he is a proven threat anytime he has the ball. Racking up 2800 yards passing with 22 TDs and another 1300 yds on the ground with 17 more TDs and leading Nevada’s rushing attack to #3 in the nation last season. ND not only kept him from scoring they held him to 149 in the air and 39 on the ground. He was sacked 3 times, and pressured every time he tried to throw.
Denard ended the UM game going 2 for 4, both completions were high throws leading to acrobatic catches by receivers and little YAC. The incompletions were both errant passes, with either the QB or receiver going the wrong direction or the ball being thrown away. There were also occasions where he didn’t go through his entire sets of reads and took off running before any pressure came, never even seeing open receivers. It was obvious to me that he wants to run, and doesn’t feel comfortable in the pocket. That pocket is going to get much smaller next week with a constant pass rush. Forcier did a much better job passing going 13 for 20. Taking every pass he attempted in the first half, they were split pretty even with 5 under and another 5 over 15 yards. The longer passes only produced 2 completions, both of which were TDs with one being an entirely blown assignment by WMU’s D. The other 3 all fell incomplete with a couple being overthrown or bad route running. The remaining TD was an absolute thing of beauty, hit the receiver in stride and got 6 out of it.
WMU’s pass rush ran out of gas early in the game for the most part, probably as a result having to cover the scrambling QBs. ND did a great job keeping after Kaeupernick, there is no reason to think they will suffer the same effects as WMU. Looking at the QBs alone it seems pretty obvious ND can expect more running from the “QB” position. Whether the play is designed to be a run or not, both have shown they can scramble very well. Tenuta blitzes with regularity and both freshman will be feeling pressure all day long. If the 2s and 3s are in, the blitz still comes. I would expect Denard to be viewed as a RB first and he will be blitzed on regularly as if he is a RB standing behind center. Forcier will probably get a different look, with his better arm, but there is no doubt Corwin Brown is comfortable leaving our corners on islands forcing teams to pass with 8 to 9 guys in the box. I think Forcier will see the most time at QB again and Denard will come in on occasion for a change of pace. Even with Denard’s speed I think he will have the hardest time against our defense with all the pressure he will be feeling.
With Minor out of commission in week one it will be interesting to see him again a year later. He will be the wild card on offense, there is no good way to predict how many touches he will get, when in week 1 the RBs only accounted for 28 of the 50 carries. Will he see more touches being the #1 guy than Brown did? Won’t be able to answer that till the game is over. With that said, I expect a lot of run support coming from the safeties with the already mobile QBs when the RBs do get carries you can expect the safeties to be right there. Taua, Nevada’s #1 RB averaged 6.4 yds/c a year ago, and continued that against ND with 6.3 in week 1. The majority of his yards came at the end of the game though when the defense was content to keep the clock running.
This will be an obvious upgrade from Nevada to UM. I am excited to see what they will do against UM’s receiving corp. Junior Hemingway is the biggest threat in the passing game and he showed that in week 1. But unless UM is regularly sending out 2 or 3 WR sets, he is going to be in for a boring day of running. Our secondary is not only talented but also deep, I counted 4 defended passes during the Nevada game and the 2 interceptions also came from the secondary. UM did fully prove my skepticism of them using their TEs in receiving wrong. It will be interesting to see if Koger will be a regular target of the QBs or if he has his best game behind him. UM would not appear to be as big of a test this week despite the increase in talent, because the majority of offense seems to be focused on the ground; even if that does not continue the ND secondary has shown they’re more than ready.
UM’s line did a good job of protecting all the passers and opened up running lanes pretty well for the most part. The WMU Dline and pass rush very obviously ran out of gas in the first half. Keeping up with the spread, and chasing after the QB really took a toll on them. The pass rush ND will bring is going to be constant, they blitzed from the first down to the last in week 1, and as guys tire out there is another ready to take his place. Our LBs and DLineman looked in great shape and there was very little drop off as they rotated through. The UM Oline will not face a regular pass rush like this all year, it will be a strong test of their strength and stamina, something I look forward to with Barwis’s pedigree behind them.
The Nevada offense overall averaged 2 runs for every pass last season, in week 1 they ended up with a more even distribution with about1:1. As a comparison UM ended with a 3:10 distribution of pass to run in week 1, which is not surprising as the entire 2nd half came off as “its time to run the clock”. Removing those plays the ratio falls to 1:3 pass:run, which I would expect to be a more ideal distribution. The increase in run plays will bring the speedier lineman and LBs to the field so don’t expect to see the same guys up front from ND as in the Nevada game. Denard is fast, but unless he is running down the field he looks hesitant and indecisive, that is what the ND rush will take advantage of. ND was content with a bend but not break mentality with Nevada, which allowed Kaepernick to turn a scramble into a positive play, while still preventing him from turning an 8 yard play into something more. UM will be seeing an entirely upgraded defense from the WMU game. WMU’s secondary was much worse than I expected, the defense overall were bad tacklers, they over-pursued the ball carriers getting themselves out of position and unable to make a play on the ball. Denard’s big run is the perfect example of it, he ran right at them and they ran right past. ND showed their disciplined tacklers and that they’re ready to make a play on the ball anywhere on the field, its aggressive and will turn mistakes into points.
Leave the keys at home. You'll probably lose them in your drunken stooper anyways. Instead, bring a handful of change to the game and an UNOPENED water bottle (this way you won't have to pay ten bucks for a bottle at the stadium). When inside, drink the water to sober up, and put the change in the bottle and you'll have something that's 100 times louder than your keys could ever make. I'll be at the game with possibly over a thousand dollars in pennies, so look for me.
Don't wait till 3rd and 4th down on defensive possessions to make noise. Personally, I think it's more important to make noise on 1st and 2nd down because it puts the other team's offense in a more difficult situation on 3rd downs, thus making it easier for our defense to make a stop. But anyways, the whole idea is to make noise on EVERY defensive play. [Also, good point made by a commenter. Don't wait till the opposing offense is set at the line to make noise. Shake those bottles and yell while they are in the huddle. Better yet, start yelling immediately when the previous play ends. Even better yet, DON'T STOP YELLING.]
When someone tells you to sit down (probably a Michigan man of the old generation) and stop making noise, ask them simply if they want Michigan to win. Most likely they'll say yes, and in kind respond, "Well sir, personally I believe it is my responsibility as a fan and spectator to stand up and cheer on our team to create a difficult atmosphere for our opponents." (Yes, say it like this in a sophisticated manner so that they can respect the message. If you talk like a smart-ass, that's when the old generation gets pissed and calls the usher/event staff).
Don't boo when you see Sheridan or someone who you think doesn't belong on the field get on the field. Rich Rod and his coaching staff know what they are doing. Have some confidence and trust in him. You get out there and hold up "In Rod We Trust" signs yet at the first sign of displeasure you boo. What is the deal? Get behind our players, even if it's a former walk-on who can't throw a 15 yard post. We should cheer louder to see scrubs get in the game.
Get there early and let's drown out those echoes that Notre Dame claims to hear. No Notre Dame chants/yells/screams should be heard. This is Michigan.
Anyways, I'll be providing Honest Analysis - University of Michigan v. University of Notre Dame when I get back to LA. Until then, go blue.
[Editor's note: Any current students need to get this message out. Print it out, post it in the dining halls, bathroom stalls, dorm hallways, at Charley's, at the Safe Sex Store, at Bubble Island, on South U, everywhere. It's easy to do. I'm not asking you to stand in the Diag handing out fliers (but if you want you should). Nobody will clown you or hate on you. If they do I'll throw pennies at them. Do your part as Michigan fans. Let's get this sh*t out there. Everyone needs to be on the same page. POST IT UP. And as I said at the beginning, it's easier said than done. Don't talk about it, be about it. POST IT UP. I will literally be at the game with rolls and rolls of pennies. Let's just say I had a good weekend in Vegas and the Michigan football team will be the beneficiary of that. POST IT UP.]
(Diarist Note: I edited the title. just trying to be a smartass)
Just some thoughts while watching the best team in Ohio destroy Rutgers in their season opener.
Brian covered a lot of ground in The Downgrade about the weekend that was for our Big 10 brethern. I will try to avoid being overly repetitive, but let me add a few more words to the discussion.
Th Big 10 spent the offseason seeing their reputation get skinned alive. Opening weekend only added more blood to the feeding frenzy. The public turned more anti-Big 10 with the early 2009 returns. For proof, lets go to the big betting board. Odds tilted in the favor of Big 10 foes for key upcoming games after the less than impressive debuts Saturday. Lets talk about them on a team-by-team basis.
They say home field advantage is worth three points in the spread, but aparently sleep walking your way through a game and nearly losing to a service academy at the buzzer is worth a few more.
The Buckeyes spent all summer as unshakeable 3.5-point underdogs in their showdown next week with USC. (Real quickly something to keep in mind: Books release Game of the Year Odds in the summer. They stay up all year, but always get pulled from the board sometime before the weekend action kicks in. They get re-released after the weekend games conclude) This morning? Ohio State is now +7, a 3.5 point swing from Friday's line. Even more compelling on what kind of action the experts in the desert expect to see on the game is the fact that Las Vegas Sports Consultants, who release recommended lines, leaned to USC -4.5 just yesterday. Oddsmakers took one look at that, promptly said NOT GOOD ENOUGH and raised the action to a full touchdown in hopes of luring in some Buckeye money, that's not already invested in trailer park safety upgrades.
My take? Keep in mind that I dont see myself betting this game. I wasnt going to be taking OSU +3.5 and I remain unenticed at +7. Besides, I have people on the payroll in charge of slugging me if I ever bet against the Trojans when they're playing a Big 10 team. They are big, mean and goony looking. I am not ready to test them yet.
That said, I do discount some of the lethargy we saw in the Shoe. Keep in mind, they were playing a team that has been to six bowl games in a row. That qualification alone should tell you that Navy brings more game to the table than the stereotypes built up in the public mind. I dont think the Buckeyes played with the right level of urgency coming out of the gates, perhaps a symptom of them coming out of the tunnel together with Navy in solidarity. Tressel didnt have their settings on 'Babby Eating' at the start and it showed as Navy was able to establish their offense. Once Navy does that, you're in trouble, no matter who you are.
Of course, Ohio State did allow a meticulous 99-yard TD drive, were dominated on third downs on both sides of the ball and made the Naval QB, in his second ever start, look like a good passer. He may be a good passer, but the performance eased a lot of fears out there that a Trojan QB making his first ever start could be overmatched on setting alone.
The Hawkeyes own dismal performance against Northern Iowa was also worth a field goal in their own grudge match this coming Saturday. The Hawks travel to Ames to play Iowa State and initially were given the nod as 10-point favorites. The Cyclones have proven a Waterloo of sorts for Iowa backers, not only covering the spot in 10 of the last 11 games, but also winning seven of them outright, including 4-1 SUATS in games at Ames. On series history alone, despite how bad Iowa State appears to be, catching double digits looked mighty mighty tempting. Iowa laying chalk to Iowa State is Dutch for "Its a trap!" Little known fact.
The Hawkeyes were a mess on offense Saturday. They are supposed to have one of the best offensive lines in the country. Injuries and suspension forced them to play a brand new interior and the line could not control the point of attack against one the better FCS teams in the land. After playing depth chart games all summer long with their only legit deep threat Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa went more than two full quarters without him even stepping on the field. The Paki O'Meara experience as lead ball carrier went nowhere, giving way to Adam Robinson, a redshirt freshmen who is so obscure he didnt even have a Phil Steele number coming out of high school. And while Ricky Stanzi did get the passing game going, he was in midseason form with his patened 'No Stanzi' moments gift wrapping an early UNI score giving Hawk fans flashbacks to last year's Pitt game. Or was it Northwestern? Maybe MSU? You get the picture.
Kirk Calloway comes off suspension and will be back on the line and they could get injured starter Juilian Vandevelde back as well. Perhaps the DJK thing was a one game thing because they could get away with it against UNI. Ferentz has a history of unearthing sleeper running backs in these injury situations and Robinson's emergence might signal that continuation. Maybe Stanzi stops doing random and unexpected Anthony Morelli impersonations.
Maybe it all suddenly gets worked out this week with the despised Cyclones on the slate. At double digits, this looked attractive. Even though some of the icing have been wiped off, I still might take a bite of the cake at +7. The history is strong in the series. Iowa has struggled to put points on the board against ISU in the past, and it didnt look last week that they're any better equipped to do so this go around.
Talk about laying an egg. Everyone was on Illinois. And everyone lost. When the Golden Nugget released its Games of the Year odds back in June, the Illini were just -2.5 in this game. By game time, the line was nearly a full touchdown. I cant shake the thought the Book came out way ahead on this one.
Somehow all those talented defensive players flocking to Champagne and Juice Williams at QB have done nothing but get worse since arriving on campus. Welcome to the Ron Zook Experience. You could probably still buy real cheap tickets from Florida fans if you want a seat on the ride.
We wont see the Illini back on the betting board until September 26th when they travel to Columbus. They play FCS team Illinois State this week and have a bye in the 19th. We have not seen the impact of the Illini's performance will have on the odds as future games have yet to be released since this weeks games arent officially over. But, they were +9.5 at OSU, +2.5 at home vs PSU and -7 at home vs UM. Those lines are being reconsidered, I am sure.
The Illini are a compelling team for me to follow. They topped Phil Steele's list of most improved team and could figure prominently in my theory of following those teams when they're catching points. After watching them play Missouri, I am expecting them to be an underdog now more often in their games. I cant wait. I need a drink.
Michigan was the most impressive Big 10 team on the day. Wait a sec, did I say that right? Let me try again. Michigan was the most impressive Big 10 team on the day. Really, its supposed to read that? Ok, thats why I trust my writers, I'll go with it. I'll start over.
Michigan was the most impressive Big 10 team on the day.
Like a lot of the Michigan fanbase, everybody on the outside is also trying to manage possible new expectations for Wolverines. Oddsmakers and the betting public, however, have not been impressed yet. At least as it pertains to the Notre Dame game.
If you recall, the summer line for this game opened at ND -2.5. Bettors wasted no time in pumping Irish money into the coffers and the line quickly raised to 3, then 3.5, where it rested for the rest of the summer. Now? It's at ND -4. It actually opened earlier today at -4.5, so maybe oddsmakers pushed it a little too far. We'll see.
Michigan was placed as an underdog in all 6 Games of the Year that oddsmakers released. Based on the intial reactions with the ND line, its hard to imagine a whole lot of movement on those lines. I am still intrigued to see what they look like after Saturday's debut. And, if Michigan adds a win against Notre Dame, it's safe to say that Michigan will probably reverse roles in at least a couple of those contests.
There were a couple other games for this coming Saturday that have seen major line shifts on account on opening week. Real quickly, UGA fell from an 11.5-point favorite to just 7 points against South Carolina last week. Somebody advised weeks ago to get in on the Gamecocks at that first number. TCU was going to be 5.5 -point road chalk at Virginia this week, but after the Cavs were dominated by William/Mary (Sorry, OC. Sorry, MaizeandBlueWahoo), the Horned Frogs are walling into Charlottesville as double digit chalk at -11.
As an alum living in Tampa, I'm curious to hear mgonation's account of its experience at The New Big House (TNBH) from Saturday.
I understand that construction is not yet completed, but figure that most of us will probably never take in a game from a luxury box anyway. Accordingly, now is a good time to compare experiences from years past, which are still fresh in our heads, to those at TNBH.
Of course, all experiences from TNBH are welcomed/encouraged, but a few questions on which I'd be interested to hear feedback are as follows:
- How was the flow of fans around the exterior of the stadium with the new towers in place?
- Is it any easier/harder to get into your gate?
- Is it any easier to get to/through concession lines?
- Is it any quicker to get through the bathroom lines?
- Aesthetically, how do the towers look in person from inside and outside of the stadium?
- Do the towers make the stadium look more imposing, or do they look at all too big and/or out of place?
- And most importantly, was there a noticable difference in volume inside the stadium? It sounded pretty loud on TV, but of course the fans had more to cheer about at this game than most games from last year. If you were positioned at or near field level, I am particularly interested to hear your feedback.
Thanks. Go Blue!
Patrick: YOU DON’T MESS WITH THE ZOLTAN!
I was in awe. Hmm, not really. I was just excited that Zoltan and special teams didn’t receive the majority of praise, like last year. It seemed like I wrote a great deal of positive things in 2008 regarding Zoltan in articles, but not enough about the rest of the team. Surprise! It’s a brand new season!
After a long offseason full of drama, speculation, and allegations, the 2009 Michigan Wolverine football team took the field on Saturday with nothing but pure confidence and determination. The team had a great deal to prove to not only the fans, but to the coaches and themselves. The 2008 season had left such a sour taste that I’m sure the team wanted nothing more than to rise to the occasion and put all of the doubt and criticism in the rearview. Well, at least for the moment.
First of all, much praise goes to the defense…
The Wolverines were victorious (31-7) over a surprisingly flat Western Michigan team that I had thought to be a pretty solid bunch. Yes, the Broncos are a MAC team! However, that doesn’t necessarily mean cupcake. They were equipped with a strong offense and an NFL-caliber QB (Hiller) that I was almost certain would give the Wolverines secondary fits.
The majority, including myself, were under the impression that the secondary would be the most vulnerable part of the defense, but I was taken by surprise. Donovan Warren and Boubacar Cissoko played at a high level. Cissoko had an on-the-spot interception and Warren did a nice job shutting down the other side of the field. J.T. Floyd (freshman), along with Troy Woolfolk were burned on the only score of the game.
Greg Robinson’s new 3-4 scheme looked well executed and aggressive. I had not seen a defense so tight and cohesive in quite some time. From the way it looked out on the field, both the coverage and tackling seemed to have improved significantly. The only time the Broncos offense gained momentum was during the fourth quarter when the game was already in hand for the Wolverines.
There were some mistakes made, but for once… no one was really victimized, like the notorious Stevie Brown of last season. Perhaps the hybrid LB/ safety role fits him. I will admit that I did think the LB position was the most talented of the whole defense coming into the season. Jonas Mouton also picked off Hiller and Obi Ezeh wreaked serious havoc by applying pressure and stops up the front.
Brandon Graham and the very young, but talented D-line deserves much respect. Hiller and his OL were out of sync for the most part. They were unable to find any offensive rhythm because the penetration and pressure effectively contained the Broncos on almost every series.
I really hate to say this because the term is severely used in the world of sports hyperbole, but…
MIKE MARTIN = BEAST!
Once I noticed that the battle of the trenches was being dominated by the Wolverines on the defensive side of the ball, the tone was set.
The offense had to follow suit… and they did. The offensive start and its overall production basically gave me amnesia in regards to the 2008 version. It all begins with how much improvement came from the OL and the QB position. The OL was quick on its feet and blocked tremendously. There were also great blocks further down the field that allowed plays to be executed successfully with a consistent attack. It really paid off for this unit to be together for a whole season last year because the difference was clearly evident on every drive.
True freshmen QB’s Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson were just what Rodriguez and the offense needed. Granted, this was their first game and there is still a long season to go with mistakes and bumps along the way, BUT… I’m ecstatic to see positive progression and a very high potential of superb playmaking ability from both.
Forcier appears to have poise, speed, and throwing accuracy. He also seems to have leadership qualities, which is extremely valuable from any freshman. Robinson is what I expected. He is very fast and has the ability to improvise and take off when a play slightly breaks down or goes awry. The only thing he needs to improve on is his passing and decision making… and that will come soon. He’s only been practicing with the team for nearly a month. As I stated before, there will definitely be mistakes made by both players, but the upside gives reason for optimism and future victories.
The Wolverines ran the ball at will. Carlos Brown filled in for the injured Brandon Minor and the QB’s also accounted for a good number of yards. There was a great mixture of classic up-the-middle runs, draw plays, and reverses. Michael Shaw looked impressive on a couple of occasions and maybe his fumblitis has been cured. There was even a brief look at Vincent Smith. I expect for Minor to be a go for Notre Dame, but don’t be surprised if Rodriguez uses the two seniors for the majority of the carries, mainly because of their reliability not to turn the ball over.
I’ve been stoked about WR Junior Hemingway for a couple of years now and he finally had his breakout game. Despite being low on the depth chart in 2007 and being injured in 2008, I still had hope that this guy would soon become the deep threat amongst the receiving corp. Greg Matthews did a solid job as a reliable possession receiver and… PLEASE! Give me some more Kelvin Grady! I liked the guy on the hardwood and it appears that he has serious skills on the field as well.
Oh yeah, DERP!
TE Kevin Koger might be a flatout star if he keeps making videogame catches like this one…
I don’t know if he’s a “f**kin soldier“, but he’s apparently a great threat to opposing defenses.
Overall, it was a highly anticipated game and a much needed win for Rodriguez, especially after a week of negativity stemming from the Detroit Free Press article. The resilient coach and his men went out there and made a huge statement for the fans of the maize and blue. Things couldn’t have started out much better, well… except for a couple of sure scoring drives that were halted by silly mistakes and questionable decisions. All seems right in Ann Arbor.
Let’s not start sucking each others d**ks quite yet. It’s just the first game of the season and a tough road lies ahead. They looked damn good, though… and much improved from last season.
Hail to the Victors!
We've seen QB completion percentages rise and rise. Thirty years ago, 45% might have won you the heisman, now it means you're third string. The point is, that just catching balls is not really enough if you're catching all of them behind the line of scrimmage. It's pretty amazing if you pull down a one handed stab ala Koger, but in the modern offense, we need better measuring sticks.
So I'm going to track my new stat categories for this season and beyond, and maybe some smart reporter (is that an oxymoron?) or someone else will pick up on how useful these stats are.
After only one game, they won't be very telling. But as the weeks go by, we'll be able to see which WR are performing relatively better from week to week. We also need some historical context. I said I would go back and review tapes from previous years, but I haven't had the time YET. I still plan on doing it, but it might not happen till after the season. Feel free to do this on your own if you've got lots of time on your hands.
Anyway let's get to it. First up is the raw data, the notes I made while watching the video. Then I'll give the stats, and finally I'll toss in some comments about the week for good measure.
Passing Down Notes:
- 5 yards to hemingway no yac on 1st down
Swing to odoms behind the line gain of 7 but penalty odoms in motion early
2nd 11 pass to carlos for 5 plus 8 yac
2nd and 10 on 28 yardline TD to Hemmingway 17 plus 11 yac
2nd and 12 incomplete to grady on a screen
3rd and 12 incomplete to webb
2nd and 5 4 yards to grady plus 4 yac
1st and 10 incomplete to Hemmingway didn’t look
- 2nd and 5 koger 4 plus 1 yac
2nd and goal from the 8, TD koger redzone
1st and 10 incomplete to matthews broke off route or wrong route
2nd and 10 (robinson) to savoy behind the line for -1 plus 12 yac
2nd and 15 (tate) to shaw for 6 on a comeback, no ruled incomplete
(matthews shaken up)
3rd and 9 screen hemingway for -2 plus 17 yac
1st and 10 incomplete to stonum broke off deep route
3rd and 7 TD hemingway same route as stonum, 36 plus 8 yac
- 2nd and 7 odoms -4 plus 9 yac
1st and 10 hemmingway 8 plus 4 yac limps off the field
2nd and 4 mathews for 0 plus 9 yac
2nd and 3 incomplete to savoy, pressure1st and 20 incomplete to matthews, broke off route Mathews looks really frustrated
- 3rd and 16 INTerception,
mathews was jogging on the goal line, DB undercut Sheridan is chewing out savoy who was wide
1st and 10 grady for -3 plus 9 yac
3rd and 2 incomplete to grady
- 3rd and 15 nearly intercepted
incomplete to matthews
2nd and 9 scramble should have passed
1st and 10 KOGER great 1 handed catch for 20
3rd and goal from the 10 redzone busted play incomplete flag
4th and goal from the 10 redzone incomplete to cox
As always, small sample sizes screw around with efficiency stats. But as the numbers accumulate, these will be more telling. So please have patience.
1st Stat Category: Yards per thrown at
This stat is better than yards per catch because it includes a penalty for players who drop the ball or loaf it on a play and don't get open. Yes they are penalized for having a bad QB but that would affect all the numbers across the board.
C. Brown 13
Stonum, Webb, Cox, Shaw, 0
2nd Stat Category: TD's per Redzone thrown at
This is a stat built for the big men, the goto guys who can get in the endzone. Amazingly, we only attempted 3 redzone passes all day. 1 was a TD to koger, 1 was a busted play, and 1 was the final offensive play from coner
3rd Stat Category: Conversion Efficiency (receiving yards minus (half the yards to go)) multiplied by the down number per thrown at
This is the most complicated stat. This one tells how good a receiver is at continuing a drive. Possesion receivers score high on this metric. Guys that only run fly routes and catch the ball one out of 5 times get killed by this measure.
C. Brown 15
Grady (19) -0.75
(Hmmm.... no one likes negative numbers so I might tweek the formula and make it 1/4 of the yards to go. what do you guys think?)
4th Stat Category: Snag and Go (Total receiving yards/(yards BEFORE the catch)) multiplied by (receptions per thrown at)
I just realized the possibility of having an infinite score here if you have all your catches at the line of scrimmage. The point here was to measure YAC in a meaningful way for guys who catch the ball short, but then have to turn and make something out of it. So I'm going to rethink this category and come up with something better to make the negatives and infinities make sense.
For right now I'll just calculate YAC per thrown at
C. Brown 8
Grady (19) 3.25
Cox, Shaw, Webb 0.0
So what's it all mean? Well obviously Hemingway had an awesome day. Not only did he get the big catches for touchdowns, but his other touches went for conversions, and he even showed a lot of YAC ability. Koger was also excellent, although he has almost no YAC which is what you expect from a larger player, but has a shiny 1.00 for Redzone TD's efficiency.
Most of the other players didn't get enough looks for their numbers to be meaningful. But there was one notable exception. Mathews had a pretty rough day. He only gained positive yardage on two plays and often looked as if he wasn't fully engaged in the play. He did an excellent job on punt returns by simply HOLDING ON TO THE GODDAMN BALL. But he had the demeanor of a guy who is very frustrated. He didn't look happy or excited on the sidelines. Maybe I'm just reading too much into it. On the two catches he made, he got good YAC and converted, but the number of incompletes in his direction brought that stat into negative territory. This is somewhat disappointing as he's our most experienced WR and seemed to have a talent for crossing patterns and deep in's or deep outs. I hope things get turned around for him quickly.
- Will someone tell Mike Patrick to use the term "SOLD OUT" crowd. Not "sell-out" crowd. I feel like he's insulting the stadium.
- That Cheesney song fr(*&)(*^& sucks! I like a lot of different kinds of music, but if it weren't for the mute button I'd probably have to shoot myself before the end of the season.
- After Tate threw the long TD, it looked like Sheridan was unhappy, and explaining something to him, and Tate was like "wut?"
- Boise should be ranked above BYU. BYU beat a team on the road, but minus their best player. Boise absolutely stomped oregon. But they kept bogging down in the redzone
- USC will kill tOSU
- Watching Floyd and Woolfolk bite on the play action was pretty sickening on an otherwise awesome day
- TP is not a smart fellow. If we had him last year we might have gotten 6 or 7 wins and made a bowl but I kind of feel like we dodged a bullet and I'm quite happy with the 2 Frosh we got and Devin Gardner coming in.
- Nice to see the crowd in support of RR
- The Big 10 went 10-1 and is well on its way to having 8 bowl eligible teams but ohio state is still making the conference look bad.
- Florida didn't beat the spread. Wow, that Urban Meyer is a terrible coach. (joking)
- USC's barkley stealing the spotlight from forcier reminds me of adrian peterson doing the same to mike hart.
- The next game is the biggest game of the season! (so far) ND looks like a decent team this year. If we win we could be looking at 8+ wins. If we lose, we're going to struggle to get 6. I hope we win by a small enough amount that Weis doesn't get fired.
- Actually I take that back. I hope we win by 38-0 AGAIN.