Now that we've reached the conference midpoint and looked at the conference outlook, it's time to take a look at the team stats. Unlike in previous editions, the graphics will include some pitching related stats despite too small of a sample size to be that meaningful. The pitching stats are starting to show some trends, though.
As another reminder, these stats aren't official, but they should be pretty close. I have to compile these by going through every box score and input them into Excel tables. Many times, box scores contain errors that are corrected in the official statistics, but they may not be adjusted in the online box score.
So, as I start each of these posts, we'll look at the three major derived stats that are readily available in the college game (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage):
In that AWESOME EXCEL GRAPH, you can see each of the percentages as they accumulate over the season. It should be pretty obvious that as the season goes along, the lines should normalize to the average as more data comes in. What may be a bit more difficult to see is that Michigan's offense peaked in the Central Michigan game. At that time Michigan was hitting .328 (BA) and .411(OBP). The slugging picked up a bit since then, peaking in the offensive explosion in Illinois game one, with a .477 slugging percentage.
Michigan currently sits at .321 (BA), .404 (OBP), and .470 (SLG). That ranks 3rd, 3rd, and 4th in the Big Ten respectively (more on this below). In terms of conference only stats, Michigan is at .322 (BA), .411 (OBP), and .469 (SLG), which means we've done a little bit better in conference in terms of getting on base, but everything else has been pretty similar to the non-conference season. That's pretty surprising given the difference in talent we've faced, but at the same time, Michigan has had a couple of anemic offensive games against some of the Big Ten's best pitchers (Hippen, Bischoff, Leininger), and they've had some explosive games against some of the not so good (Illinois win).
Speaking of talent difference between conference and nonconference, the purple line in the above graph, for those who didn't pay attention last time, represents the RPI of our opponents. The number one team in Boyd Nation's pseudo-RPI would be a 1.000, and a team holding the #302 RPI (or any non-D1 opponents if you're a Buckeye who plays AND LOSES to D2 and NAIA teams) would register as a 0.000 score. From that, you can see that our non-conference schedule was pretty difficult with two games against #1 Coastal Carolina, but our last few games, as well as the Big Ten regular season are quite a drop in competition.
The second graph I tend to post up is per nine innings stats, particularly runs, hits, strikeouts, and walks. These are just the sum of our total stats accumulated over the number of innings Michigan has batted (a home win normally only has 8 innings, as compared to any road game having 9 innings). Taking a peak:
Looking at the above, we can clearly see the differences between "OMG WE LOST LAMARRE" and the the team becoming stable. LaMarre came back against Central Michigan, where we can see a small jump in hits and runs, but not much in terms of long term changes. The only long term pattern that comes from the post-LaMarre return is a slight drop in strikeouts, a product of Krantz and Stephens getting less at bats.
At the time of LaMarre's return, I probably would have predicted an increase in hits and runs per game, but as we'll see in a bit, a couple of players have really cooled down over the last few weeks, most notably Coley Crank.
For individuals and a brief look at pitching, follow the jump. Warning, it gets long. Probably unnecessarily long. But it is what it is.
This weekend's critical series against Big Ten co-leaders Ohio State has a side story that deserves just as much attention as a battle for the Big Ten title. Michigan's greatest shortstop, Barry Larkin, will have his number 16 jersey retired on Saturday afternoon.
Barry was born in Cincinnati in 1964, a city that he would forever be tied to. He grew up and attended Moeller High School, a great school in Ohio sport history. It produeced not just Larkin, but Ken Griffey, Jr., and someone many Michigan fans hold dear: Gerry Faust. At Moeller, Larkin set the school record for batting average for a career at .482, hitting 12 triples and 11 homers, stealing 26 bases.
He would win the team MVP as a senior in 1982 and was drafted in the 2nd round by the hometown Cincinnati Reds. Larkin chose not to sign with the Reds however, and instead enrolled at the University of Michigan to play football. Yes, football. Following the 1982 season, he informed then coach Bo Schembechler that he would also be trying out for the baseball team. That was the last time Larkin would be part of the football team, as he became a regular immediately on the baseball squad.
On the diamond, Larkin made an immediate impact. The 1983 season would see Larkin named the Big Ten Tournament player of the year and make Baseball America's Freshman First Team. That season was also a College World Series for the Wolverines. In game one against Maine, Larkin had two doubles in a 6-5 win. Michigan would ultimately be eliminated by Texas in the semi-final. Michigan's final record was 50-9, the highest winning percentage by any Wolverine team ever.
That wasn't Larkin's last trip to Omaha. [Ed: continued after the jump.]
As noted in Friday's preview, Michigan and Michigan State have closed the MCLA regular season at a neutral site in each of the last four years, as part of the Great Lakes LAcrosse Classic. This year's game, at East Grand Rapids High School, was more of a nailbiter than expected, but the close game provided fans the opportunity to see some high-level lacrosse.
The game got off to a quick start for the Spartans, as they built up a 2-0 lead five minutes into the game. Michigan would eventually respond on two transition goals, the first coming on a successful ride, as Zach Mueller stole the ball and fed Trevor Yealy, followed by a Jordan Kirshner strike. After MSU took the 3-2 lead, Svet Tintchev (pictured below, from mgobluelacrosse.com) scored on a feed from Anthony Hrusovsky to tie it up going into the second.
The teams would continue to trade goals in the second quarter, but once Michigan State took a 5-4 lead, Michigan went on a 5-0 run, taking the 9-5 lead into halftime. Michigan's goals in the frame would come from Yealy (three times), Josh Ein (twice), and David Rogers.
The game would tighten up in the second half, as both teams upped the physical play leading to several big hits. Jordan Kirshner scored the first tally after the break:
Michigan opened the scoring in the second half with a nifty play as Kirshner teased his defender into thinking he was going to sub at midfield, before darting back into the box alone, taking a feed from Ein on the right GLE and firing high for the 10-5 lead moments into the third.
Michigan State put in the only other goals of the quarter, for a 10-7 score going into the final frame.
Michigan managed to kill off a 2-man-down situation early in the fourth, but another penalty shortly thereafter gave Michigan State the opportunity to get within two goals - and they capitalized. Michigan gained a little separation on a David Rogers tally with just over four minutes left in the game, and the Wolverines managed to keep possession for almost the entire remainder of the game for the 11-8 win.
Official Site Recap (source of quote and photo above)
Notes and Analysis
Michigan State's goalie stood on his head through much of the first quarter, and again in the fourth. During those times, Michigan's shots weren't always making him work hard for the save, however. Once shot quality improved (and frequency increased), the Wolverines put several shots past him.
David Reinhard was his typical solid self, winning 68% of his faceoffs, though even he had a slump when Michigan was struggling early in the game. Goalie Mark Stone had a solid outing, keeping Michigan State from scoring one several good opportunities. However, a couple balls that could have been saved got past him.
Senior Kevin Zorovich went out late in the first half with a knee or lower leg injury. He returned from the locker room after the rest of his teammates following halftime, and though he was still wearing his full gear (sans helmet), never returned to the game.
This is a much better MIchigan State than we;ve seen for the past few years. It will be a shame if this loss (combined with some unfavorable results elsewhere) keeps them out of the MCLA Tournament.
If you live in the Grand Rapids area and want to catch the game on TV, it will air on local access WKTV on Saturday at 5PM. The station will also have DVDs of the event available for purchase at a later date.
The CCLA Conference Tournament goes down at Saline High School this weekend. Michigan has a first-round bye, and will take on its first opponent Saturday at 4PM. The Wolverines and Spartans are favored to rematch in the Conference Championship Game.
Next up on the blog will be a round of MCLA Bracketology and a CCLA Tournament Preview.
One of the complaints I keep reading that recruits have with Michigan is that Michigan doesn't run a pro-style offense. This obsession with a pro-style offense makes no sense to me. Don't a lot of NFL teams play mostly in the spread offense? The most recent super bowl winners (the Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, and Patriots) all go to a shotgun formation often. The Saints, Colts, and Patriots are in a shotgun formation the vast majority of the game. The Giants, Cardinals, and Steelers all mix in the shotgun and go shotgun on the majority of passing downs. How can a college offense that runs the shotgun not be considered a pro-style offense while a large number of NFL teams run the shotgun? The list of NFL teams that often are in the shotgun formation include the Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans . Now I'm not saying that all these teams just run every play out of the shotgun formation but all these teams do often line up in the shotgun formation. Considering that 15 out of 32 teams run the shotgun formation I think the shotgun should be consider a pro-style. That is unless the "pro-style" is a certain type of offense and not necessarily reflective of the current NFL offenses (like pop music is a certain genre not just popular music). I feel that answer must either be that, nobody realizes how many teams go shotgun since all they care about is fantasy football, or ESPN hates the shotgun formation and is refusing to let that be considered a pro-style.
Maybe more than any other position the QB position changes the most between a so called pro-style and a shotgun based offense. When Rich Rod came to Michigan, Mallet transferred because he wanted to play in a pro-style offense. Also, a number of HS QB recruits have decided against playing at Michigan because of the offense. While I understand slow QBs not being interested in running the ball I think shotgun offenses should quit being trashed for the QBs they produce. In the 2010 draft the first 5 or 6 QBs (depending on if Edwards counts) all played in the shotgun formation in college. Bradford (Oklahoma), Tebow (Florida), McCoy (Texas), Edwards (The Horror), and Kafka (Northwestern) took almost every snap from the shotgun. Clausen at ND took nearly 1/2 his snaps from the shotgun but he did go under center the other 1/2. If the first 5 QBs taken all played in the shotgun then I think it's safe for HS kids to play QB in a shotgun offense. The notion that successful shotgun QBs must run is also ridiculous. Bradford went first overall and ran all of 42 times in 2008 (his last healthy year) for a John Navarre-esque average of 1.1 yards per run. Brady has never run for more than 110 yards in a season and Peyton Manning has never run more than 38 times (in 16 games) and ran just 19 times this last season.
I can understand why TEs don't go to Michigan but I don't get players like Arnett. TEs are being faded out by slot WRs and as a result they are becoming more like H-Backs. But to be honest a lot of NFL teams (like the Patriots and Colts) are doing the same thing. Is Arnett not interested in Michigan because a running QB means less passes to the WRs? I don't understand this pro-style obsession, especially since few college teams run it and more and more NFL teams are going shotgun. Also, where do kids that want to play in a pro-style go? 3 of the 4 teams that have dominated college football the last 10 years (Florida, Oklahoma and Texas) are all almost exclusively in the shotgun formation. Looking back at last year's Top 25 only a handful of teams don't take most of their snaps from the shotgun. Texas (#2), Florida (#3), Boise St (#4), OSU (#5), Cincinnati (#8), PSU (#9), VA Tech (#10), Oregon (#11), and BYU (#12) all were top 15 teams according to AP polls and played a lot of shotgun. Considering that GA Tech (#13) runs a wishbone (which is anything but pro-style) that means only 5 top 15 teams (Alabama, TCU, Iowa, Nebraska, and Pitt) run a "pro-style" offense.
Side Note: Derek Dennis's status is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
With half of the Big Ten regular season complete, it's time to take a look at the conference to see where Michigan is and what it will take to get a good seed in the Big Ten Tournament. In this post, we'll walk through the series we've already completed and then look at the opponents we still have on the schedule.
So, for all you late comers to the baseball season, here's what you need to know.
Where We've Been
|Wild and crazy high scoring affair as it goes back and forth |
after Michigan was all but dead early. Dufek wins it in the
10th with a RBI double. Two bench clearings. Crazy.
|Brosnahan is sporadic but his emotion carries him through |
for the win in a well pitched game by both teams. Michigan's
early lead is enough to get by.
|Katzman makes the start and can't get through the first. Yours |
truly quits the game early as Michigan was down 17.
For as exciting and tense as the first two games of the series
While not much has changed in terms of outlook, Indiana hasn't turned out just as good as I expected either. They've been quite inconsistent, with their top hitters going ice cold the weak after they torched us. That freeze of course happened against Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes a pretty easy 2-1 series victory. They did sweep Iowa, though, something Michigan couldn't do.
|Alan Oaks continued to struggle and Michigan could do nothing |
with Purdue's Matt Bischoff in the loss.
|Big inning early and a solid Brosnahan start allows Michigan to |
coast to a victory with Burgoon locking down the 8-9th.
|Brandon Sinnery gets his first start and makes good. A 7-run |
4th inning caps off Ryan LaMarre's POTW winning series.
Michigan is going to continue to make decent to good pitchers
The loss to Bischoff is still nothing to worry about. It really would have helped for Michigan to get a sweep. Ohio State isn't on their schedule, but I'm not sure if that helps or hurts us. Purdue may be able to steal a game from the Buckeyes, or they may get blown out in all three.
|Alan Oaks is back! 8 innings of great pitching and the offense |
explodes for 17 runs? We're rolling.
|The bats fall asleep and Brosnahan has his shaky start that |
should be good enough for a win. Bad defense doesn't help.
|After 3 ugly innings by both teams, Tyler Burgoon steps in and |
shuts down the Illini for Pitcher OTW honors. Offense explodes
late, sparked by POTW Patrick Biondi.
2-1 series win over a BTT contender will work. We really had
Things haven't changed much here in a week. Illinois lost 2 of 3 at Michigan State, which means the Spartans are just keeping pace with us.
|Jarred Hippen is really good. He overshadowed anything |
Michigan related in this game.
|Due to rain in the forecast, it was a double header, & Hippen |
momentum carried right through game 2. Michigan grabbed an
early lead then blew a big inning. Brosnahan's luck runs dry.
|Michigan jumps ahead and, for the most part, stays ahead. |
Offense finally shows up late in the game.
1-2 isn't going to cut it. Losing one to Iowa in the Hippen
That happened. Nothing has happened in our season and it still stings. I can't wait for this weekend to come so I can get it out of my head. Plus, the Buckeyes did us a favor losing a home series to Penn State just so we could keep pace.
After the jump, we look at the present and then haphazardly predict the future.
Action since last rankings:
4-26-10 Ohio State gains commitment from Jeff Heuerman.
4-27-10 Notre Dame gains commitment from Ben Koyack.
4-28-10 Michigan State gains commitment from Andre Sims. Notre Dame gains commitment from Matt Hegarty.
Now that Iowa has jumped into the fray, Penn State and Purdue are the only Big Ten (plus Notre Dame) programs that don't have any commitments.
|Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# of Commits||Rivals 250||Scout Average||ESPN 150|
I'll only make charts for the teams that currently have commits. Rivals 250 means that a given prospect is on the Rivals 250 to Watch, and ESPN 150 means that a prospect is on the Watch List for the ESPNU 150. Scout ratings are on the 5-star scale.
|#1 Ohio State - 10 Commits|
Michigan legacy(!) Jeff Heuerman picks the Buckeyes.
|#2 Notre Dame - 9 Commits|
Notre Dame picks up a couple more good prospects (which, like, crap).
|#3 Michigan - 4 Commits|
Wolverines are passed by Notre Dame.
|#4 Michigan State - 5 Commits|
Michigan State has a top-heavy class so far. They do pick up a new commit, however.
|#5 Indiana - 8 Commits|
The Hoosiers are tough to place because they have many commits, but all of them are low-rated.
|#6 Minnesota - 2 Commits|
No change for the Gophers.
|#7 Wisconsin - 2 Commits|
No change for Wisconsin.
|#8 Northwestern - 2 Commits|
Both of NU's commits are unranked to the services.
|#9 Illinois - 2 Commits|
Still just two for the Illini.
|#9 Iowa - 2 Commits|
Nothing new for Iowa.