Diaries

Ah, finishing goals. [Bill Rapai]

OFFENSE

Analysis: Michigan started this game on fire. They created multiple OMRs right off the bat and put the puck in the net twice in the opening period. Hughes ripped a shot and Winborg deflected it behind Morris. Then Dancs found the puck off of a DZTO and beat Morris short side–Morris’s only soft goal of the four. Michigan was able to get deep in the House area all period and could have had a three or four goal lead after the first. Then, it slowwwwed wayyyyyy dowwwwn.

The penalty-fest in the second kept even strength play very similar. Calderone was able to poke home a garbage goal after James Sanchez drew a lot of attention in the slot. In the third, Michigan went full Sparty and registered a 4(1). But, as Sparty would, they scored on their only House chance, as Nick Pastujov picked up a pick in the neutral zone and found his brother across the crease to give M a 4-2 lead.

Tonight is a night that we remember to put Corsi in context. Michigan played very defensively–and rightly so-in the third. The Irish also turned up the pressure, as they needed a couple of goals. The numbers were low, but the offense was fine in context tonight. Plus, they finished chances! WOO!

[After THE JUMP: a couple unbelievable even-strength stats and woop yep probably just cursed them]

Ol’ Dex wants to know what to watch [Bill Rapai]

I know Brian just did a Bracketology Update on Monday, so I decided to look at more of the specifics of what/when/who to watch this upcoming weekend.

Notre Dame Preview

Things That Michigan Will (Probably) Need to Do to Get Points This Weekend:

1. Stay Out of the Box. This is where Michigan lost both games against the Fighting Irish last month. They didn’t take a ton of penalties (only five combined), but Michigan gave up three of their four total goals surrendered with ND on the man advantage. When the game was at even strength, the Wolverines played Notre Dame pretty even, and maybe even outplayed them a bit at Yost.

2. Don’t Get Caught. Michigan has done a better job lately of staying home defensively and covering for defensemen (Quinn Hughes) who skate the puck deep in the zone. Michigan is probably going to control the puck and get the majority of attempts. When that is the case, it is very important not to gift your opposition goals by getting too aggressive and giving up odd man rushes. Staying out of the box and defensively sound will give the Wolverines their best chance to grab points this weekend. Defensemen, pinch with care.

3. Finish. Just get the puck in the net. Over the last couple of weekends, Michigan has created some chances and given guys some opportunities, they just have not finished. This is the season's do-or-die series. It is time for Marody and Calderone–Michigan’s go-to scorers–to finish their chances.

Final Thoughts. I like how this series sets up for Michigan. As Brian stated earlier this week, they’re probably going to need a win this weekend to be in comfortable position in the Pairwise ranking. Michigan gets their Game 7 at home on Sunday, so Friday night kinda becomes found money. If they’re able to get something in South Bend, all of a sudden Sunday becomes a great opportunity. If not, they’ll have the friendly confines of Yost to fall back on for an all-or-nothing chance.

[After THE JUMP: dissecting the Big Ten standings and nationwide rooting interests according to Pairwise]

Need a bounce back game after a late collapse from 2-0 up to lose in OT against Slovenia. Former Wing Jan Mursak dominated the game. Slovaks are coming off a huge win against OAR.

10:10 pm est USA vs. Slovakia, CNBC CBC NBCSports App

Group standings:
Slovakia 3 pts
Slovenia 2 pts
USA 1 pt
OAR 0 pts

This diary was originally going to be called The Heteronormative Kinship Relationship of Jim Harbaugh and Tim Drevno and Its Representational Role in the Construction of Masculinity in the Academy Around the Body-as-Athlete.*  But that ended up seeming pretty long. 

The board is - as you've no doubt observed - very down on Drevno.  What is posted below is offered as evidence that Harbaugh has reason to be loyal to Drevno as an offensive line coach (maybe especially as a producer of lines that can run the ball).  It is not offered as evidence that Drevno is a good offensive coordinator or recruiter.

Drevno became Stanford's OL coach in 2009.  This was the first year Andew Luck started and the year that Toby Gerhart was a Heisman finalist. 

Stanford's offense jumped from 31st in the S&P+ rankings (gaining 351.8 ypg) in 2008 to 6th in those rankings (gaining 427.6 ypg) in 2009.  The Cardinal were the 11th ranked rushing team.  Luck and Gerhart were a major part of the offense's improvement, but Drevno's OL hardly held them back.

Stanford's 2009 OL featured a first-team all Pac 10 tackle (Chris Marinelli) who was also second team All American, a second team all Pac 10 center in Chase Bealer, and three honorable mention all Pac 12 players (Jonathan Martin, David DeCastro, and Andrew Philips).  DeCastro and Martin were first year players. 

Stanford's offense took another step forward in 2010 despite losing Gerhart, finishing 3rd in the S&P+ rankings (gaining 472.5 ypg).  This was the year Luck became a clear high first round draft pick, and I don't mean to minimize that at all.  But again, Drevno's OLs hardly lagged behind their fellow offensive players.

Stanford's 2010 OL helped it get to 17th nationally in rushing yards.  And they gave only up six sacks.  This bears repeating: they gave up only six sacks!

Stanford's 2010 OL featured a first team All American and first team all Pac 10 center (Beeler), two other first team all Pac 10 players (DeCastro and Martin), and two honorable mention all conference players (Andrew Phillips and Derek Hall). 

To put Stanford's 2010 OL performance in context, Alabama has fielded three first team all conference offensive lineman only twice during Nick Saban's tenure (I won't argue if you want to say that this is harder in the SEC than it is in the Pac 10/12).  Also, all of Stanford's offensive lineman in 2010 (and 2009) were three-star guys coming out of high school.  The  overall player rankings per 247 of the six lineman who started on the Stanford OL in 2009-2010 are as follows: Martin (459), Marinelli (735), DeCastro (360), Beeler (391), Hall (rated as a WDE)(810), and Phillips (934).

In 2011, Drevno followed Harbaugh to San Francisco, where he stayed until 2013. Drevno's record in SF was mixed. 

The Niners went from 24th in total offense in 2010 to 26th in 2011.  They then improved to 11th in 2012 but dropped to 24th in 2013.

The Niners had no Pro Bowl offensive linemen in 2011, but they fielded one (Joe Staley) in 2012 and two (Staley and Mike Iupati) in 2013. 

The line's statistics in 2011-2013 were admittedly up and down - and the line was never good at pass blocking.  The 49er OL dipped from 13th in adjusted line yards in 2010 to 21st in 2011, but it improved from 30th in sacks yielded to 21st.  In 2012, the line jumped to 1st in adjusted line yards but dropped to 29th in sacks yielded.  In 2013, the line dropped all the way down to 29th in adjusted line yards and ranked 22nd in terms of sacks allowed.  Those 2013 stats are slightly odd in light of Staley and Iupati making the Pro Bowl.

Harbaugh stayed in San Francisco for 2014, but Drevno went to USC.  There he helped the offense move from 59th in the S&P+ rankings in 2013 (gaining 399.1 ypg) to 18th in 2014 (gaining 457.6 ypg).  His OL also featured a first team all conference player (Max Tuerk), who had been honorable mention all conference the year before, and two true freshman players (Toa Lobendan and Viane Talamaivo) who were given honorable mention all Pac 12 honors. 

The Trojans were 68th in rushing nationally in 2014.  They gave up 32 sacks (7th best in the Pac 12 and a slight improvement on the 34 they surrendered in 2013).

I assume everyone is acquainted with what Drevno has done at Michigan, so I'm not going to cover that (I'm also running out of time and energy to work on this thing). 

Taking all of the above together, Drevno came to Michigan having produced at least one truly excellent line (2010 Stanford) and one really poor line, albeit one that had two Pro Bowlers (SF in 2013).  But it seems he produced more very good to good(ish) lines (Stanford 2009 and SF 2012) than bad ones (SF in 2011).  And his production at Stanford and USC was with middling recruits (Stanford) and true freshman (USC).  So my takeaway, as I said above, is that Harbaugh can justify his loyalty to Drevno as an OL coach. This seems especially true if we're talking about run blocking and maybe (see below) not so strong a statement if we're talking about pass blocking (2017 Michigan says hello).  You are, of course, free to agree, disagree, or somehow squeeze a Jim McElwain shark joke into this.

One more thought: It was surpsingly hard to find information about sacks allowed for Drevno's time at Stanford and USC.  I could not find any information on that for 2009 Stanford or anything more than what I posted re: USC's 2014 pass blocking.  I also couldn't find sacks allowed for 2008 Stanford in order to compare them to 2009 Stanford.

*This joke will be much better if you were part of the "Michigan hosts pro-pederasty talk" thread that was caved earlier this week.

Greetings from a member of the silent majority. That is not to say I don’t enjoy checking what our Mgoblog community is saying in the comment section on an almost hourly basis. I just assume nobody really wants to hear my point of view so I barely bother. Therefore here I am writing a freaking diary post. Oh well…

I don’t know why this specific time I felt compelled to be vocal about my thoughts revolving the football program. Perhaps it was the constant parade of uninspiring news from the end of the recruiting cycle, or it came during the incredible Dan Enos era, which has turned into the….I cannot believe I am saying this… Jim McElwain era, or the fact that Tim Drevno is still employed, or the fact that Shea Patterson is in NCAA purgatory, or the fact that Brandon Peters looked like a taller version of John O’Korn while an actual true freshman came in after halftime for Alabama and scorched Georgia to win a National title, or the fact that our offensive line has been perpetually below average spanning 3 coaching staffs and 10 years, or that we consistently seem to waste world beating offenses with historically bad defenses, or that we waste world beating defenses with historically bad offenses, or that Ohio State continues to exist as a supreme nuclear football power, or the fact that I live near Cleveland and have been constantly asked lately ‘are you guys losing faith in Harbaugh?’ while they reflexively smirk like giant entitled mouth breathing d**k bags. I don’t know.

This site has been my refuge for all things Michigan Football since I first started visiting it in 2010. Brian and Ace are ‘my guys.’ Our guys. I love their podcast, game breakdowns, and unrepentant honesty on what they see on the field every week. Reading or listening to them dissect the program is a lot like listening to your local baseball play by play and color guys. Then hearing ESPN or FOX comment on UM is like listening to Dan Plesac breakdown why your number 2 starter is really a number 1 starter. So it goes without saying that I try to follow their lead on what kind of perspective we as a fanbase should have regarding events around the program.

I am not, as our now embattled savior likes to call Pete Finebaum, an Mgoblog water carrier. I do have issues with some things that are said and written. However these disagreements do not outweigh the overall value the site brings to me. So when Brian wrote is post Outback Bowl article and title it ‘Whatever’ I oddly thought…yeah whatever. I don’t really know where to go from that. It is February and spring ball is nearing and all I can think of is how much I don’t want to hear about a damn thing related to this team until kickoff against Notre Dame. I don’t want to hear breakdown from Sam Webb on what new guy is killing it in fall camp, or what 5 star Pep is visiting. But why I feel that way is not because I have given up, or have resorted to complete apathy for my lifelong favorite sports team.

I just want to watch this team play football games because I actually do believe they will be really really excellent in 2018. I trust no one on the planet works harder and is more aware of the past years issues than Jim Harbaugh. His 2017 was an exception to an entire career built on excellence. I don’t feel great in the trust he continues to have in Drevno, or that he seems to want various opinions on what play to call before they break the huddle, but I also know that guy was inches away from being a Super Bowl winning coach. I know that even with that pro success he is an even better college coach. I remember he was also inches away from taken a team made up primarily of Brady Hoke’s players to the Big Ten Championship game and most likely CFP in only his second year.

So my ‘Whatever’ is based on everything else that surrounds the program that has nothing to do with the actual games that are played. I have no control over what school a high school stud decides to do, or what coach is hired, or the fact that the team I hate the most continues to work at a level I pray UM gets to on a consistent basis. I will continue to expect excellence on the recruiting trail, on the coaching staff, and then on the field, just like all of us do. Until then I will enjoy reading all of the perspectives from fellow fans that are not insane, and hope one day we can all look back at this period of time as a ‘remember when we hated our football team’ as Jim stands next to Shea holding up the Playoff Trophy. Go Blue.

Here’s to you, Ace! The. Iron. D. (Bill Rapai)

OFFENSE

Analysis: Michigan didn’t quite put up the sheer volume of chances that they did last night, but they were still very effective in the attacking end. Both of their even strength goals were the result of tremendous passing in the offensive end. After a bomb from Luce, Marody corralled the rebound and found Calderone wide open in the slot for a tap-in. Late in the third, Marody went cross ice to Cecconi, who returned it to Hughes. Hughes dangled into the slot and beat Lethemon for what would be the game-winner. Michigan had enough chances for a handful of other goals, as well, but Lethemon played well enough…and there were definitely times where Michigan’s ability to finish off goals was again in doubt. Thankfully, Hughes netted that last one.

[Hit THE JUMP for more]