Diaries

Hooray, it's finally September!  I've been jonesing for football so bad that I caught myself watching the second half of last year's Michigan/Illinois game.  And I knew what the final score was going to be!

The early season games are difficult to pick for this column, since last year's usual suspects could very well improve, or someone decent could fall on their face.  So, without further ado and very litle research, let's get down to it.

Bowl Recap: Wyoming and Freson State played an entertaining 2OT game, with Wyoming coming from behind to win 35-28.  Minnesota and Iowa Stateclunked around, with Iowa State winning 14-13.  So Congrats to Minnesota for finishing sub .500 even with a bowl game.  South Florida beat the crap out of Northern Illinois 27-3.  When you have almost as many yards punting (233) as total offense (238), the fans are in for a long night.

But we're going to put the past behind us, and look forward to a bright, shiny, new 2010 season.  Minnesota manages to get noticed again, mostly for starting on the road against Middle Tennessee.  Middle Tennessee was 10-3 in the SunBelt last year, so this is no cupcake for Minnesota, who struggled with the #109th best offense last season.  Bonus: it's on Thursday on ESPNU.

Also on the road, Arizona travels to Toledo.  Arizona is probably still smarting after getting hammered by a pissed-off Nebraska team in their bowl game, but Toledo had the #13th overall offense last year, despite finishing 5-7.  Toledo knocked off Colorado, and should be looking to do the same to Arizona.

Colorado versus Colorado State in the Rocky Mountain Showdown is nothing if not entertaining.  Last year, Colorado lost to CSU again.  This is the same CSU team that finished 3-9 and lost their last nine in a row, including such powerhouses as Wyoming, UNLV and San Diego State.  Colorado looks to counter Dan Hawkins with returning talent at RB, but nothing can counter Dan Hawkins.

Jack Tabb

6'4", 230 lbs.

Tight End

Red Bank, New Jersey

Michigan obviously wants a tight end in this class as they've gone after, and missed on, a few so far. Tabb has already taken an unofficial to Michigan, and is contemplating taking an official this weekend for the UConn game.

I'm going to try to make it up there, because that would be perfect timing for a first official. I really like Michigan, so we'll see.

I should know if that's 100% by the end of the day today (Monday) if he's coming. The reason this is such a big deal is because Jack wants to make his final decision in the next few weeks. I would go as far to guess that it may be North Carolina and Michigan at the top. With all the NCAA investigations looming at UNC, this visit could swing things in favor of Michigan.  That would be a decently big pickup; Tabb has offers from two dozen BCS schools.

Marquise Williams

6'3", 218 lbs.

Quarterback

Charlotte, North Carolina

Also in the North Carolina NCAA scandal benefiting Michigan, we move to Marquise Williams. Though he's a UNC commit, Williams had always stated that he would take his official visit to Michigan and possibly some other schools. That is still the case, and the NCAA snooping around Chapel Hill aren't helping any:

I don't want anyone to think I'm not committed to North Carolina still, because I am. I'm just still looking at everybody, and seeing what's out there. You never know what could happen. I'm coming up to Michigan on October 9th, that's the Michigan State game, that's when I'll be there.

He wanted to make sure that everyone knew he was still committed, but he wasn't happy about the looming investigation. He was in contact with Coach Gibson a few days ago, and said he still plans on keeping in touch with him. Also, in his first game he threw for 341 yards and 7 TD's while his team won 61-0. It was against a bad team, but still noteworthy.

Daren Kitchen

6'1", 175 lbs.

Cornerback

Houma, Louisiana

The latest on Daren is that he sent his first game film to three of the Michigan coaches, and they loved it. He had 3 pass break ups, a field goal block, and an INT for a TD. He says (I know he's said this before) that the Michigan offer is now his.

He's coming up for the UConn game on an official visit, as well. I don't know if the offer is officially official, but we should know by Friday if it is. If so, a commit is expected in short order.

Demetrius Hart

5'8", 190

Running Back

Orlando, Florida

If you didn't originally see this thread, then I'll bring you up to speed. Demetrius Hart (as of now) is not coming to the UConn game. There was some paperwork missing from his clearinghouse info, and he can't take an official visit until it's processed. [UPDATE: Hart's visit is seemingly on as of now.]

I spoke with Demetrius' mother today to see what the mix up was. She said that as of today they won't be coming to the U Conn game, and that Demetrius was going to take an unofficial visit to Auburn. She was told that the paperwork that needed to go through would take two weeks to get processed. It seems like they're trying to expedite the process, or figure out what needs to get done, but she wasn't optimistic that they would be able to.

I'm supposed to get a hold of her tomorrow to find out if they were able to work around it, and still make it up this weekend. Like I said, she didn't sound optimistic. We'll see what happens. 2012 QB Nick Patti, Demetrius' teammate, will still be coming. I'm not going to comment on if any of their other teammates will be there, because there's a possibility that teammate doesn't want it reported either way. I have a headache from this already. We'll see what happens, it looks like it could go either way.

Extra:

• The extensive UConn visitor list is here. Anthony Zettel recently decided that he'll be at the game. He's not 100% sure, but leaning towards going.

Action since last rankings:

8-22-10 Iowa gains commitment from Melvin Gordon.
8-24-10 Illinois gains commitment from Hayden Daniels.
8-25-10 Michigan State gains commitment from Donavon Clark.

Slow week in the Big Ten, as I predicted. Hopefully things will pick up with official visits starting next weekend.

Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).

No change for the Buckeyes.

Nothing new for Notre Dame.

Daniel Davie goes from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Joel Heath goes from 3-star to 4-star, Paul Lang, Arjen Colquhoun, and Andre Sims go from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

blah.

Mike Replogle, Forisse Hardin, Nick VanHoose, Shafer Johnson, Zack Shaw, and Jay McCants go from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Melvin Gordon commits to the Hawkeyes. Henry Kreiger-Coble, Jake Rudock, Cole Fisher, and Marcus Grant go from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Mark Szott and Derek Watt go from 2-star to 3-star, Cameron Dickerson goes from 3-star to 2-star on Scout.

Sam Rohr, Mike Moore, and Luke McAvoy go from 2-star to 3-star, Samuel Oyenuga goes from unranked to 2-star on Scout.

Eric Steffes, Austin Maly, and Derek Landisch go from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Kyle Carter goes from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Ted Karras goes from 3-star to 2-star on Scout.

Randy Gregory goes from 3-star to 2-star on Scout. Taylor Richards goes from unranked to 77 on ESPN.

On the “Weekly Rich Rodriguez Coach’s Radio Show” on 26 August 2010 at about 43 minutes into the show, Dave Brandon said the following (and I quote exactly but emphasis was added):

“One of the things few things that annoy me about some of the feedback I get is like, you know, ‘Dave, money isn’t important do this cause this is what feels good to me.’ But money is incredibly important….

….So my job is to leverage the assets associated with football whether it be merchandizing, or licensing, or the stadium, or the gate. Everything and anything we can do. And any Michigan fan should want us to maximize those revenues because it affords us the ability to invest in Crisler arena and the player development center and all the things that are so important to building this brand and building this program.”

I felt sick to my stomach when I first heard this and it has bothered me ever since. Notice Brandon did not say to make reasonable revenue but to “MAXIMIZE” revenue. Maximize: “to make as big or as large as possible.”

So, with apologizes to Pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984):

First they came for the Michigan Marching Band and started playing gawd awful piped in crap
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came and said I couldn’t pee against the walls
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came for the player introductions
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came for the game
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came to put adds on the jumbotron
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came to put adds on every available square inch inside the stadium
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came to put adds on every available square inch outside the stadium
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came and renamed it Zingerman’s Stadium at the U/M
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came and changed the home jersey
And I didn’t speak up

Then they came and changed the block M
And by that time there was nothing left

And all I could do was cry.

EDIT: I was NOT trying to compare anything to the holocaust. I was just trying to post the material in a different way (total fail?). Sorry if I offended anyone.

I wanted to see how many prospects Michigan will be targeting for 2011.  I took the Depth Chart by Class and modified it. 

Kelvin Grady is in () because it is unclear whether he has a scholarship or not.  I am leaning toward not simply because he is not financially strapped and does not need one.  He is not counted in the total

DE S. Watson or SS M.Williams are uncounted because they are buried on the depth chart and unlikely to be asked back for a 5th Year.

LB B. Herron is uncounted because it is unlikely he will see the field this year or the next and will not be asked back for a 5th Year.

I would like to know what actual football people think about whether those 3 players will be asked back for a 5th Year.

SCHOLARSHIP COUNT: 65

Current Commits: 11 (this includes Antonio Kinard)

I believe Michigan will be looking to sign 9 more players for the Class of 2011.

GO BLUE!

Will Michigan have a winning record this year, how close are we, and where do we need to improve to get there? I decided to look at National Rankings for Offense and Defense and the corresponding Win/Loss record.

 I reviewed all the offensive and defense stats and Scoring Offense and Defense has the best correlation to wins and losses. (This is probably obvious but some folks seem to get all excited about Total Offense and Defense based on yardage. Last time I checked, yardage has never determined the winner of a football game.) There are now 120 FBS teams so I picked a rank of #60 for the analysis.

For the past ten years:

• 98% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for both Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense had winning records.
• 62% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for either Scoring Offense or Scoring Defense (but not both) had winning records.
• 6% of teams that are ranked #60 or higher for neither Scoring Offense nor Scoring Defense had winning records.

Here is a table showing National Rankings for the last 10 years:

1. The number of teams that finished with BOTH Scoring Offense and Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.
2. The number of teams that finished with EITHER Scoring Offense or Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.
3. The number of teams that finished with NEITHER Scoring Offense nor Defense Ranked in the Top 60. Of those, the number with winning records, and the % with winning records.

The next table shows Offensive and Defensive PPG for teams ranked #1, #60, and #120 (or last team when there were less than 120):

Now, let’s look at a table showing Rich Rodriguez’s National Ranking at WVU and Michigan.

Conclusions:

1. From 2008 to 2009, U/M improved in all phases of the game except Rushing Defense which went from #50 in 2008 to a very ugly #91 in 2009 and, of course, TOM which went from gawd awful to worse!
2. U/M’s Offense is already good enough to result in a winning record. There is no reason to believe it will not continue to improve this year.
3. So, yeah, Defense is the key. If we can improve from #77 to at least #60, a winning record should be a lock. How much improvement is this? Our defense allowed 27.5 PPG and the #60 ranked team allowed 25.5 PPG. So that is about a 10% improvement.  The #40 ranked team allowed 22.4 PPG which would be about a 20% improvement.
4. For Rushing Defense, we allowed 172 YPG and the #60 team allowed 144 YPG. That is about a 16% improvement. This should be doable. The strongest part of our defense will be against the run. The most experience is at OL and LB (4 seniors, a junior, and Death ROH).
5. For Passing Defense, we allowed 221 YPG and the #60 team allowed 218 YPG. That is less than a 2% improvement. So, if the DBs can just stay the course we should be OK.
6. Look at those Offensive Passing Ranks for WVU! Yikes, I knew RR’s scheme was a run first spread offense but I never thought the passing would be that low. Even though I have been an advocate for Tate to start because of his experience, RR history says the stronger runner will start. Uh, that would be Denard.
7. As to the question of which is more important – Offense or Defense – the answer is: They Are Equal. Over the 10 years, 88 teams that finished in the top 60 in offense but not in defense had losing records and 89 teams that finished in the top 60 in defense but not offense had losing records.

You can check how we are doing during the year at:

http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2010