Mike Lantry, 1972
Expected Points - Offense
|Offense||G||Exp Pts||Act Pts||Diff||Drives|
Wisconsin is playing at a slower pace and therefor not generating all of the opportunities are, but in terms of out-gaining expectations, they are #1 in the Big 10 at +4.3 on the season. Michigan is still leading in expected points per game, due in large part to their Big 10 leading 12.1 possessions per game.
Expected Points - Defense
|Defense||G||Exp Pts||Act Pts||Diff||Drives|
This is the ugly flip side to the offense's high pace, high drive count strategy. Lots of points faced by the defense. Michigan's defense is forcing more points and more drives than any other Big 10 team. The high expected points number is not solely due to the drive quantity either. Michigan's defense is killed on field position. Michigan, on average, faces a drive worth 2.05 points, 4% higher than the Big 10 average and second highest overall. The difference between Michigan and Ohio State (the lowest per drive average start at 1.83) is worth nearly a field goal a game and almost 35 points over the course of the season. If Michigan and Ohio State had identical defenses and faced the same number of drives against the same teams, Michigan would give up nearly 35 points more over the course of the season because of the field position difference.
This weeks matchup pits 2 of the top 3 offenses in the Big 10. Both teams are led by the clear cut top two rush offenses in the conference while featuring solid but not spectacular (the Big 10's specialty this year) passing games.
Wisconsin comes into Saturday's a distant fourth in the Big 10 in total defense while Michigan sits in the middle of the pack. Iowa, Ohio St and Penn St continue to dominate the overall defense ranks, all three sit in the top 12 nationally.
Michigan comes in second just behind Ohio State in the overall special teams ratings. Michigan continues its strong showing in a number of categories with top 30 rankings in Punt (9), Kick (16) and Punt Return (32).
|Team||Fum Lost||Int Thrown||Fum Forced||Passes Int||Total|
Fumbles. Fumbles. Fumbles. Michigan is in the middle of the pack on defensive interceptions and one Denard Robinson possession away from leading the Big 10 in fewest interceptions thrown (as measured in value lost). The turnover problem has nothing to do with interceptions and everything to do with fumbles. It appears that we have upset the Angry Michigan Hating Fumble God. There are only two Angry Fumble Gods who hate their teams worse than Michigan this season, Nevada and ironically enough, West Virginia, who never had a fumbling problem when RR was there. Michigan is 114th and 113th nationally in fumbles and fumbles recovered.
The Big 10 has established its home at the bottom of the BCS auto qualifiers this year, and its not even close with 5th. The problems can all be attributed to the offenses, as the Big 10 is almost a full point behind the next lowest Big 6 conference. The defense looks a bit better as the 1.8 average ratings is good for third behind the two dominant conferences, the SEC and Big XII.
This football season has not progressed the way THE KNOWLEDGE envisioned it
There are many people here that are extremely unhappy, angry, heartbroken etc
THE KNOWLEDGE, however, is not easily swayed by emotions. THE KNOWLEDGE is merely shocked that his predictions did not come true for this season
However, THE KNOWLEDGE does not live in the past
THE KNOWLEDGE lives in the future
Onto the main point of this post
Due to yet another poor season, the head football coach will be fired and a new coach will roam the sidelines in 2010
At Notre Dame
more details on the new coach at the end of this post
COaching changes are coming to Michigan as well
A few of the assistant coaches will be let go by the end of the year, and they have started interviewing potential replacements
THE KNOWLEDGE cannot reveal their identities at this point because it will compromise their seasons at their respective programs
However, THE KNOWLEDGE will happily reveal the new HC at ND
because this has already been finalized
Charlie Weis will be officially fired after this week's loss at Pittsburgh
they many only announce it to the public at the end of the season, but all the paperwork has been drawn up to give Weis the pink slip after the upcoming loss this Saturday
Most people this it will be Brian Kelly or Jon Gruden that is the next coach after Weis
but these people are wrong
THE KNOWLEDGE has concrete evidence that the new coach will the one that got away from Michigan in 2007 due to the actions of his former boss Carroll
The current Washington HC Steve Sarkisian
As can be seen in the first post of THE KNOWLEDGE under this new handle, the prediction that Sarkisian will be the new HC at Michigan was what shot THE KNOWLEDGE to fame, although THE KNOWLEDGE had made a previous prediction that English will become HC at EMU (that largely went unnoticed)
Sarkisian didn't become HC at Michigan, but unfortunately for Michigan and the rest of ND's oppoenents, he is the new HC at ND
When this news becomes public in another month
THE KNOWLEDGE shall soar
and leave every doubter in a trail of dust
PS: Michigan will win the Motor City Bowl this year
OK - everyone jump!
Where did you land?
---------- Warning - Motivational Speech Follows - I wrote it to pump myself more than anything. Laugh if you want, but I'm serious. I posted it here in the hopes that some others would enjoy it:
In all seriousness...There is a ton of pressure on these kids and coaches right now. Enormous amounts that I can't even fathom. They need our support this week and next more than ever.
I'm sure everyone reading this has come to a point in their life where there is a crisis moment. Some point in time where you just can deal with anything. you're tired, beaten up mentally and/or physically. It's frustrating beyond belief. You just want to get the hell out or cry or punch something or scream or all of it. But it passes. We get through it. We move on. Time moves on with or without us. It's at these times that friends and teammates get together. Band together and get through. I have faith that this team has winners and character individuals that will get through this rough spot. Fight through it. Don't let it consume you. Keep your head up, Tate, Denard, Obi, Jonas, Mike, Jordan - everyone - Do the best you can. That is all we are asking and we know that is what you are doing.
Remember this from the summer: ALL IN! It seemed silly at first, then awesome and now trite. But, I don't think it has ever been more relevant than for these last two games of the regular season.
Let's hope the team (the team the team) is ON this weekend and next weekend and that the metaphorical second-season roller coaster was just cranking up that final hill for a really fun home-stretch... I think it is mandatory that we all re-watch this at some point this week (if you watch it now it helps): As we all know, Brian is a genius. The prescient nature of that video is ridiculous. The song, the juxtaposition of Purdue and Wisconsin highlights, not to mention the transition point of the TD to Hemingway against Wisconsin - it's uncanny. Let's all take a step back, put our pacifiers and binky's down (read whiskey and whiny internet message boards), suck it up and cheer our asses off for these kids the rest of the way. Are we going to be returning to glory for 20 years? Are we going to be at the bottom of the big ten standings next year? NO We are fucking Michigan and we are getting better every play, every practice, every weight-lighting session, every training table meal, every study session, every day, every week, every year. There is championship mentality and leadership in this program, in this locker room, in Schembechler Hall, in the fieldhouse, out on that practice field and in the stadium.
We have the best facilities in the country. We have the biggest stadium. We have the biggest alumni base. We have the best uniforms. We have the best rivalry. We have the highest winning percentage. We have the most wins.
Our coaches know how to win championships at all levels and beat the snot out of high-profile programs in BCS games. Barwis is still eating nails for breakfast and forming these freshman and sophomores into men that are going to wreck people - every day. Everyone is working their ass off. Everyone is learning. Everyone is doing their best. The recruits are coming. We have a TON of awesome kids coming in next year that will add another layer to an amazing foundation. We are going to win championships. IN ROD WE TRUST - LETS DO THIS!
National performance of the week: Nick Florence, Baylor vs Missouri +26 (427 yds, 4 total TDs)
Big 10 Performance of the week: Kirk Cousins, Michigan State vs Western Michigan +17 (353 yards, 2 TDs) - 10th best overall performance
|Kirk Cousins||Michigan State||8||6.7||7.3||144.3||17.6|
|Daryll Clark||Penn State||9||6.2||5.6||136.5||26.1|
|Terrelle Pryor||Ohio State||10||3.5||4.0||131.9||70.6|
|Keith Nichol||Michigan State||7||-0.1||0.3||129.6||15.0|
Kirk Cousins and Daryll Clark sit at the top of the conference at nearly a touchdown a game. Kafka, Forcier and Pryor are all in the second tier at about +4 points/game. After those 5 its a mess of 1-2 pointers. The values roughly correlate to the passer rating, although the value+ numbers reflect rushing yards, strength of competition and reward or punish volume of passes depending on success. Nationally, Cousins and Clark are in the top 25 range, the Tate and company are in the top 50 or so and everyone past Pryor are in the bottom half or so of D1 quarterbacks.
National Performance of the Week (BCS competition): Jordan Todman, Uconn vs Cincinnati +14 (195 combined yards, 4 TDs)
Big 10 Performance of the Week: Brandon Minor, Michigan vs Purdue +7 (154 yards, 3 TDs)
|Evan Royster||Penn State||9||1.2||1.7||87||0.6||5.26||19|
|Larry Caper||Michigan State||8||0.6||0.8||43||0.8||3.97||24|
|Brandon Saine||Ohio State||10||0.3||0.8||50||0.0||4.74||21|
|Jordan Hall||Ohio State||6||0.2||0.6||41||0.2||5.17||5|
|Dan Herron||Ohio State||7||-1.5||-0.9||50||0.9||3.99||17|
|Glenn Winston||Michigan State||5||-2.7||-2.1||36||0.4||3.33||6|
The spread between the top and bottom on running backs is much closer. Minor would have a clear advantage if not for several games of limited action. Saturday's game will feature the 3 highest rated running backs in the conference with John Clay of Wisconsin and Michigan duo of Minor and Brown (if they're healthy, of course).
National Performance of the Week: Dana Alexander, Missouri vs Baylor +15 (214 yards, 1 TD)
Big 10 Performance of the Week: Roy Roundtree, Michigan vs Purdue +10 (126 yards, 1 TD)
|Devier Posey||Ohio State||6.0||2.6||4.5||67||14.9||0.7|
|Derek Moye||Penn State||5.4||2.4||4.5||73||16.2||0.5|
|Blair White||Michigan State||5.3||3.2||5.4||72||13.2||0.6|
|Graham Zug||Penn State||4.5||3.3||4.5||53||11.7||0.6|
|Keshawn Martin||Michigan State||4.0||2.4||2.0||42||20.9||0.5|
|D Sanzenbacher||Ohio State||4.0||3.0||2.7||54||20.1||0.7|
|B Cunningham||Michigan State||3.5||1.6||4.2||50||11.8||0.2|
Michigan held Keith Smith slightly below his average (+6) for the week, but it was still enough for Smith to hold a half point lead over the shelved Eric Decker. Still no Michigan receivers with the catches to qualify for the standings.
A few years ago I applied Ken's Rating for American College Hockey (KRACH), or Bradley-Terry statistics, to ACHA club hockey teams. At the time, participants for the national tournament were determined by an opinion poll, and there wasn't enough interplay for that to be meaningful (sound familiar?).
In an earlier post here, I intimated that I'd like to see someone crunch the numbers as a mechanism for rating Division I-A college football teams. It's something I've been thinking about for quite some time, just to see what would happen. So tonight I threw something together.
"The KRACH rating system is an attempt to combine the performance of each team with the strength of the opposition against which that performance was achieved, and to summarize the result as one number, a "rating", for each team. The higher the rating, the better the team."
"Interpreting the ratings
The ratings are given on an "odds scale": that is, if team A is rated at 400 and team B at 200, team A is reckoned to have odds of 2 to 1 of defeating team B when they meet (since 400 is twice 200). Equivalently, team A is reckoned to have probability 2/3 of defeating team B (since 400/(400+200) is 2/3).""There are two things we need to check, to make sure that the rating system is sensible:
- If you win more against the same opposition as another team, your rating will be higher.
- If you have the same record as another team, but against tougher opposition, your rating will be higher."
So, I took the season results from the official NCAA page. I excluded results against FCS competition, as a matter of principle.
One caveat here - I haven't yet worked out what to do exactly with undefeated and winless teams. This will become meaningful at the end of the season if there are multiple undefeated teams (I'm not sure I really care about the winless teams). While I sort that out, I've done the following:
- Verified my calculated rating by calculating the predicted number of wins;
- Determining a percentage difference between the predicted and actual number of wins;
Without further ado, the first KRACH rating for Division I-A college football:
|64||North Carolina State||0.561||2.000||2||0.017|
|73||Middle Tennessee State||0.363||5.999||6||0.022|
|88||San Diego State||0.147||2.999||3||0.019|
|111||New Mexico State||0.009||2.000||2||0.017|
|119||San Jose State||0.001||0.006||0||0.000|