BCS standings for Wk 13 as of 8:15p EDT (bcsfootball.org):
Pretty much there are still limited permuations of the BCS if the favorites continue to win... I'm going to start with the pretty much locks:
ACC, Big East, and Big 12 will likely only get one team in the BCS game. ACC and Big East due to the general ineptness of the conferences. These will likely be:
- ACC: winner of Va Tech v Florida St/NC St championship game. This winner will go to the Orange Bowl.
- Big East: Who the hell knows... could be Pitt, West Va, even UConn(!!! who would have thought that the most impressive win on our schedule at the end of the year could be a BCS conference champion NOT named Ohio St). Bottom line is this team will likely be the last team picked by BCS bowls when picking opponents for the mandatory games.
Big 12: With last night's
chokeloss by Nebraska, all this did was make it more difficult for a Big 12 team to get an at large bid. It likely will be the winner of Oklahoma v Oklahoma St against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, with the either a 1-loss conference champ and a 3-loss runner up, or a pair of two loss teams. Anybody hoping Nebraska wins and goes all Chris Benoit on the last night of Monday Nite Nitro by accepting the conference title trophy and then dumping it in the trash bin on the way out the door?
- SEC: They're still probably going to get 2 teams in the BCS no matter what. If Auburn gets in the BCS champ game, then a 1-loss LSU or a 2-loss Arkansas is your likely 2nd team in the Sugar Bowl. If Auburn loses to Alabama, it'll be the winner of the SEC champ game as the Sugar Bowl rep and a 1-loss LSU/2-loss Arkansas/2-loss Alabama as an at-large. If Auburn beats Alabama but loses in the SEC championship to So Car, it'll be So Car in the Sugar Bowl and either LSU or Auburn as an at-large. Even if Cam Newton is arrested tomorrow for money laundering and fraud at Fannie Mae, bottom line: SEC's getting 2 teams. Damn.
- Non-AQ's: One of them is getting in for sure. Two is wholly dependent on if Boise or TCU qualifies for the Natl Champ game. B/c of a contractural quirk for this year, if a non-AQ makes it as an at-large and a Pac-10 team is in the MyNCG, then the non-AQ must go to the Rose Bowl. Still a shot for an at-large in the Orange Bowl, but that may be dictated by who wins the ACC (see below).
So assuming the season holds in terms of chalk teams winning, we'll be looking at:
- BCS Champ: Oregon v Auburn
- Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU/Boise (whoever ends up higher in BCS if they're both undefeated, autobid as per BCS selection rule 3A/B)
- Sugar Bowl: LSU/Arkansas/Alabama vs. at-large
- Orange Bowl: Va Tech/FlaSt/NC St v. at-large
- Fiesta Bowl: Neb/OkSt/OU v. at-large
So let's analyze the competition for the at-large slots. It is impertive to understand that the order of selection will play HUGE in this decision. I'll analyze them in the order of the at-large selections:
- Sugar Bowl: already made LSU the replacement pick for Auburn in the MyNCG (but it could just as easy by Arkansas if they beat LSU or Alabama if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl but wins the SEC). So looking for 1 at-large team to match-up against LSU. The choices are either a 1-loss Big Ten team (tOSU, Mich St), a 1-loss Stanford, or an undefeated Boise St/TCU (whichever left out of the Rose Bowl- at this point it's still Boise St as TCU is higher in BCS and gets the non-AQ autobid). My thinking is that from a bowl organizers point of view, a Big Ten team, especially tOSU probably gets more butts in seats and generates a better TV viewership than Stanford. So now the choise is really between tOSU and an undefeated non-AQ. Since a non-AQ is already in the BCS, I say tOSU gets the at-large slot
- Orange Bowl: Already have the ACC champ... if it's Va tech, then a Boise at-large here is unlikely as common thought is to avoid rematches (especially since it wasn't that good of a game in the first case). Va Tech vs Stanford might be attractive here, or the Orange might bite the bullet if convinced by the rest of the BCS hierarchy and take the Big East champ. If it's not Va Tech, then Boise might be a good selection to prop up a not as attractive FlaSt / NC St ACC champ.
- Fiesta Bowl: already have the Big 12 winner, so looking for someone to matchup with Neb / Ok St / OU. Here its a crap shoot and dependent on who the Orange takes. Orange takes Boise, then the Big East champ has to go here. Orange doesn't take Boise and takes the Big East champ, then I could see either Stanford or Boise St, and frankly a Big 12 v Boise St rematch may be more viewer friendly than Stanford (especially if Boise St has a Heisman finalist Kellan Moore at QB, sorry Andrew Luck). Stanford though is still a national name (albeit with a weak in-person following), and I'm torn. I'd say you could flip a coin and land with either Stanford or Boise St.
The wrenches in the plan
There are a couple big wrenches that could be thrown in the gears here:
- the Big Ten doesn't end up with both Ohio St and Wisconsin with 1-loss: in real terms, a 1-loss Mich St doesn't matchup as well in a at-large comparison with undefeated Boise St or a 1-loss Stanford if they don't get the Rose Bowl bid. They way it's working right now, if Sparty ties with Wiscy only, then they''ll get the Rose Bowl as a result of a head to head win against the Badgers. Wisconsin then would still be a pretty strong at-large bid for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl. If its Mich St and tOSU, then tOSU will get the Rose Bowl and Sparty will be left to fend for the at-large against Boise & Stanford, and frankly I don't think they win that comparison.
- tOSU jumps Wiscy in BCS standings: this one just popped up this week when I actually looked at the numbers... tOSU is not that far behind, maybe there's a voter backlash against Bielema in the last two weeks??? Who knows. What I know is that if tOSU jumps Wiscy in BCS standing, then the three way tie formula in the Big Ten sends Ohio St to the Rose Bowl, and leave Wiscy and Mich St battling Stanford and Boise St for an at-large. At this point, I think its a real possibility that Boise AND Stanford are looked more favorably than Wiscy and Mich St. Especially if Stanford keeps rolling out body bags and some body gets sentimental at the Sugar Bowl for a Bo Schembechler reunion tour game between Harbaugh and Miles.
- Oregon loses: that vaults either TCU or Boise into the MyNCG, Oregon to the Rose Bowl and then by my reading, as long as the other TCU / Boise team is still in the rule 3A/B auto-bid position, they'll get in as an auto-bid, probably in the Sugar or Fiesta and knock out Stanford or a 2nd Big Ten team from the BCS
- Auburn loses: here it matters when Auburn loses. they lose to Alabama in the Iron Bowl but beat So Car, they still have a shot at the MyNCG bid as the #2 team. They lose to So Car in the SEC champ, they'll be in a fight with LSU for an at-large in the Orange Bowl, since So Car will be in the Sugar Bowl, and the Sugar won't have SEC v SEC (Orange Bowl will almost certainly pick a 2nd SEC team over the Big East champ or anybody else)
Your weekly sign of the apolcalypse:
- Still looks like only way Boise and TCU meet in the MyNCG is if Auburn and Oregon lose, most likely Auburn losing in the SEC championship game. But if that happens, both non-AQ's are well positioned with human pollsters to jump into the #1 / #2 slot needed to overcome computer softness. There's some open politic-ing going on with Les Miles trying to say LSU w/ 1-loss should be ahead of the non-AQ undefeateds, but I don't think that's going to sway voters.... UNLESS
- If the Cam Newton thing goes REALLY BAD and he's found to have been ineligible for this season, preferably after the Iron Bowl, then Auburn will have to forfeit all games he played in (all of them), become ineligible as a team for the BCS, and THEN you might see southern voters backlash against the ruling and cast all their Auburn muscle that was in the polls behind the next likliest SEC-brotherhood team.... LSU. I would think there'd be enough of a majority of voters who finally throw up their hands if this happened and just say, "all right TCU/Boise St, with all this shit going this year, here's your ONE TIME golden ticket", but keep your eyes peeled about this if the Cam Newton things breaks toward ineligibility in teh next week or so.
See you next week as the picture becomes much clearer after the Big Ten season wraps up and the Iron Bowl is played.
A new commit for the Wolverines means this hits the front page. Action since last rankings:
11-15-10 Northwestern loses commitment from Derek Watt, Wisconsin gains commitment from Derek Watt. Indiana loses commitment from Max Pirman, Nebraska gains commitment from Max Pirman.
11-16-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Darius Hillary.
11-18-10 Purdue gains commitment from Shane Mikesky.
11-19-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Austin Traylor.
Rivals and Scout have updated their rankings over the past couple weeks, so there are some shakeups in there.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||ESPN Avg|
Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).
|#1 Ohio State - 18 Commits|
Braxton Miller and Kenny Hayes get 1-point bumps on ESPN, while Devin Smith goes from 76 to 78.
|#2 Notre Dame - 17 Commits|
|George Atkinson III||S||CA||5.8||4||79|
|#3 Nebraska - 16 Commits|
Huskers steal Max Pirman from Indiana.
|#4 Michigan State - 16 Commits|
|#5 Michigan - 13 Commits|
|#6 Wisconsin - 21 Commits|
Badgers steal Derek Watt from Northwestern, and add a pair of Ohioans in Darius Hillary and Austin Traylor. That's more than enough to push them above Indiana.
|#7 Indiana - 22 Commits|
Hoosiers lose Max Pirman to Nebraska.
|#8 Iowa - 16 Commits|
|#9 Northwestern - 12 Commits|
Wildcats lose Derek Watt to Wisconsin.
|#10 Minnesota - 15 Commits|
|#11 Illinois - 17 Commits|
|#12 Penn State - 5 Commits|
|#13 Purdue - 9 Commits|
Unrated Shane Mikesky joins the Boilermaker fold.
After starting the season 5-0 before dropping games to MSU, PSU, Iowa and Wisconsin, the Michigan coaching staff remains optimistic heading into Ohio State weekend and preparing for the first bowl game of the Rich Rodriguez era. Despite today's loss, I thought people might feel a little more positive if they saw the positive dialogue going on amongst the coaching staff.
You have entered UM 7-4 Google Wave
YouDontKnowJACKson: "... so I say 'That's probably the greatest thing ever to occur in the history of Dinosaur Planet and all but can I have my sandwich now?"
TGibsSmotherCover: "LMAO. Fred Jackson you are a DELIGHT!"
HaRRd Edge: "Great story Fred. Alright, let's get started on OSU prep."
HaRRd Edge: "Yes?"
YouDontKnowJACKson: "Great story?"
HaRRd Edge: "Yes?"
MeAndHobbes: "Here we go."
YouDontKnowJACKson: "Why isn't it the greatest story?"
TGibsSmotherCover: "Easy FJ. I'm srue RR didn't mean it."
YouDontKnowJACKson: "Because, you know, it's not easy being the eternal optimist. Do you think I enjoy comparing a 5'9" running back to an asteroid set to destroy Earth unless Bruce Willis can rocket himself into space and destroy it while Steven Tyler gyrates? Do you think I enjoy that?"
HaRRd Edge: "No offense intented Fred, I just-"
YouDontKnowJACKson: "Because I do kind of enjoy those metaphors."
MeAndHobbes: "Can we move on?"
HaRRd Edge: "Agreed. Now we need to know what's necessary to keep the team's focus during a holiday week going into the Shoe. We need to send these seniors off on the right foot. What do you have planned Greg?"
TortoiseAndTheHair: "I had the strangest dream..."
YouDontKnowJACKson: "The slumbering beast awakes with the force of the Krakken..."
HaRRd Edge: "What now Greg?"
TortoiseAndTheHair: "I dreamed the dream of 113,000 soldiers. I dreamed of defensive tenacity and winning on a defensive stop. I dreamed of a torrential downpour the likes of Moses and the Old Testament and of a field of raptors in winged helmets tearing down upon a foe with an unusually large head and a hammer."
TGibsSmotherCover: "Is he speaking in elevated prose or just being dumb?"
MeAndHobbes: "Vegas would give you 2:1 odds on one of those answers."
HaRRd Edge: "That really happened Greg. We won by two against Illinois and won at Purdue."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "Could it be? Could the one they call Cameron have actually scored?"
MeAndHobbes: "Rod - I can't do this man."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "My lord! This is what it feels like to be Dorothy and find that Oz was not but a dream."
MeAndHobbes: "Rod seriously. I'm about to red ruby shoe my ass outta here and to a head coaching job..."
HaRRd Edge: "Enough Greg. How are you going to stop Pryor?"
TortoiseAndTheHair: "I'm in talks with Henson Studios of bringing my furry game puppet Jebediah to life by Thursday's team meeting."
MeAndHobbes: "What is the proper weight of resume paper?"
TGibsSmotherCover: "I CAN HAS CASTEEL?"
HaRRd Edge: "Guys, let's focus. We have two more games."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "And then we just auto-complete the recruitment process, spend 40 minutes to three hours trying to keep seniors from going to the NFL, skip pre-season training drills and we're good to go."
MeAndHobbes: "For the last time Greg: coaching is not the same as XBox."
TortoiseAndTheHair: " I been pulling the Turbo trigger all season."
HaRRd Edge: "There seems to be a significant weakness on OSU's slants to the sidelines. Pryor has a habit of overthrowing them so if we cheat the route, there might be some opportunity there for turnovers."
PinkyandtheBraithwaite: "Got it."
TGibsSmotherCover: "Whoa, who the hell are you?"
TortoiseAndTheHair: "So we live a life like a video... When the sun is always out and you never get old..."
PinkyandtheBraithwaite: "Adam Braithwaite. Safeties coach..."
MeAndHobbes: "Where the hell have you been?"
TGibsSmotherCover: "Hey Adam, are you the jackhole responsible for all these missed kicks?"
MeAndHobbes: "Here we go..."
PinkyandtheBraithwaite: "I believe that's yours Tony."
TGibsSmotherCover: "You're shitting me."
HaRRd Edge: "Pretty sure that's your unnecessarily long title on your business cards."
TGibsSmotherCover: "Hold on let me grab one."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "My name shall be passed down to generations while debating up in barber shops, young slung, hung here."
CodeRedMountainDews: "If you guys don't need anything..."
MeAndHobbes: "Talk about comin out of the woodwork..."
TGibsSmotherCover: "It's almost as if someone completely forgot to mention members of the coaching staff in these chats."
TGibsSmotherCover: "Ok so it says Tony Gibson. Assistant Head Coach (hells yeah suckas!) Defensive backs blah blah blah... Special Teams coo-sonofabitch."
HaRRd Edge: "Anyone seen Fred?"
YouDontKnowJACKson: "I'm here."
HaRRd Edge: "Why so quiet?"
YouDontKnowJACKson: " "
TortoiseAndTheHair: "Foreeeeeever young. I wanna be... Foreva young."
HaRRd Edge: "Fine. It was the greatest story ever Fred."
ScoobyDooVillain: "Is there any chance I can have a fourth guy down on the line?"
MeAndHobbes: "It's almost like the season's ending so everyone who hasn't been mentioned is coming into the chat to make an unnecessary, innocuous and obvious comment."
TGibsSmotherCover: "That user name doesn't even look like he was trying hard at this point."
MeAndHobbes: "Ok what the hell?"
YouDontKnowJACKson: "This is a greater meeting of the minds than the the Manhattan Project if the Manhattan Project was inventing bombs of giant angry robot centaurs sent back in time to prevent socialism."
HaRRd Edge: "Thank God for the state of Indiana."
MeAndHobbes: "While they're back in time do you think they could also prevent Greg from bringing furry objects on the sidelines?"
HaRRd Edge: "Time for practice."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "Has anyone seen my stuffed varmint? I need to go fire up the janitor. Vaccuuming's been a little sloppy lately."
TortoiseAndTheHair: "Did everyone put me on Ignore again?"
TortoiseAndTheHair: "I'mma get your heart racing in my skin tights jeans... Be your teenage dream tonight..."
Big Ten play is done for this week, so lets look at the bowl outlook.
First the standings (from Bigten.org)
|11 Michigan State||6-1||201||150||4-0||2-1||10-1||348||219||7-0||3-1||2-1|
|8 Ohio State||6-1||236||98||3-0||3-1||10-1||436||153||7-0||3-1||1-1|
First, we eliminate the non-qualifier teams for bowl games based on already having 7 losses overall. These are Purdue, Minnesota, and Indiana.
So the bowl placement standings (based on overall record w/ conf standings in parenthesis) are:
Wisconsin, 10-1 (6-1), tiebreaker with best BCS ranking
Ohio St, 10-1 (6-1), higher BCS than MSU
Mich St, 10-1 (6-1)
Iowa, 7-4 (4-3)
Penn St, 7-4 (4-3)
Northwestern, 7-4 (3-4)
Michigan, 7-4 (3-4)
Illinois, 6-5 (4-4)
The only remaining question with one week of play left is how many BCS teams the Big Ten is going to get... I'm going to analyze that tomorrow when the BCS standings are released. For this, I'm going to go on the current standings and expect that next week, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, & Iowa are going to win (favorites). We'll also assume Illinois will beat Fresno St on the road. That would mean we would have standings that would look like this:
1) Wisconsin, 11-1 (Rose Bowl, BCS autobid as highest BCS team in 3-way tie)
Ohio St, 11-1 (BCS at-large, Sugar or Orange Bowl)
Michigan St, 11-1
2) Iowa, 8-4
3) Penn St 7-5
For the bowls, I'll go in order of selection:
Capitol One Bowl
First pick after BCS Bowls. MICHIGAN STATE. This one is easy as Michigan St is the co-champ and can't be by-passed by anyother Big Ten teams for this slot. Looking at playing the top SEC that doesn't make a BCS game, so likely LSU, or So Carolina, but if the Cocks get pasted in the SEC championship, Bama may slide in here.
Big ten #3. IOWA. Iowa being all alone in 4th place and a good traveling team makes this an easy pick as well. Hawkeyes will play the SEC 3/4/5 team, so probably Arkansas or Alabama.
Big Ten #4/5. Probably PENN ST. JoePa factor, they beat us head to head, travelling following is about equal with Michigan or maybe slightly ahead. I'll say Penn St slots above us in bowl selections. The Nittany Lions will play the SEC, probably the #6 team, so Florida or Miss St.
Big Ten #4/5. Probably MICHIGAN. When compared with the remaining selections available (NW, Illinois) we win most comparisons that matter to bowl committtees. We won head to head against Illinois, are a more "exciting" team (especially with a record setting and probable Heisman finalist Denard Robinson), and travel well to warm locations. Tempe ain't Boise so we'll probably do fairly well along with being our first bowl game in 3 years. We'll play the Big 12 #6, right now looking like Kansas St, Baylor, or Texas Tech.
Big Ten #6. ILLINOIS. Illini are a shoo-in over Northwestern now as long as they get to 7 wins, and may be a higher selection at 6 wins. It's another Big 12 opponent, so the lower of the Kansas St / Baylor / Texas Tech triumverate.
Ticket City Bowl
Big Ten #7 NORTHWESTERN. Last remaining slot for a Big Ten team that's bowl eligible (thanks Purdue!). Some confusion here as the Ticketcity Bowl website says that since its the newest bowl it has to defer its selection until all the other established bowls have selected, which by my reading would mean the Little Cesar Bowl gets the last Big Ten eligible team if there's not enough, but I could be wrong as the TCB site also says that the Big Ten is the anchor conference for the first four years... So we'll assume the Big Ten #7 goes here and plays a Big 12 team if they have enough (and it looks like they do), the last of the KSt/Baylor/Tex Tc grouping.
If-I-Have-To Projected Matchups:
Rose Bowl: Wiscy v. TCU or Boise St
Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Ohio St
Capitol One: Mich St v. South Carolina
Gator: Iowa vs. Alabama
Insight: Michigan v. K St
Texas Bowl: Illinois v. Baylor
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern v. Texas Tech
I would say if this is the case, Big Ten is favored in Capitol One, Insight, & Texas Bowls, being underdogs in most others. But who cares? We're back in and have a winnable bowl game ahead of us....
Barring major upsets next week, this is pretty static. The only changes would occur if the Big Ten only gets one BCS team (Say Stanford and an undefeated Bosie/TCU get at-larges ahead of Ohio St or Mich St).. that happens and move everybody down one slot with Northwestern going to the Little Cesar Pizza Bowl, meaning we'd end up in the Texas Bowl, which, eh, could do worse considering the Texas Bowl is one day later than the Insight Bowl (Wed vice Tue night), Houston vice Tempe, and 6p kickoff vice 10p.
So, I had some spare time at work and decided to look into something that I have been wondering for a while: does it seem like Rich Rod sticks to the run too much, even in games where we are losing? At this point I’m sure you all know RR likes to run the ball—duh. But how often, exactly, does he run the ball?
This analysis is just a basic overview of my dataset. I will follow up with more in-depth looks at point margins and down and distance, but I thought you all might be interested to see basic percentages for our offense through Purdue. If anyone has anything specific regarding playcalling vs. score margin vs. down and distance, let me know and I will see what I can do.
A few notes and stipulations on the dataset:
1.) All data is taken from Brian’s UFRs for games this season.
2.) Analysis stopped at end of UFR, so if Brian didn’t include it in his UFR (i.e. blowouts), it is not in my analysis. If Brian doesn’t think its worth looking at, well, neither do I.
3.) Plays in which either team got a penalty are included ONLY IF the ball was snapped, since if it didn’t, we can’t know what play was called.
4.) Every snap weighted the same regardless of time left in half/game, because my thought process, we are almost as likely to run the ball in a 2 minute drill as the rest of the game (almost, though not quite).
5.)2 pt. conversions left out.
Disclaimer: 4th down numbers are not very accurate due to low sample size.
Now, for a chart:
A few things here are obvious. First, RR likes to run on 1st down (69.1% of the time). His affinity for running decreases every down, with the exception of 4th down. Most of the runs on 4th down are 4th and short, and the passes 4th and long.
Next, we will take a look at the distribution when the game is tied:
What we see here is that RR is more likely to run the ball on every down when the game is tied than his average, except fourth down.
Now, we look at when we are winning the game:
So, RR is more likely to run when we are winning, though not to a statistically significant level except on 1st down.
And when we are losing:
So, RR is much less likely to run on all downs (except 4th) when we are losing.
This data all flushes out pretty much as expected, but I thought I'd share anyway. In the next edition, I will analyze run-calling affinity per down based on score margin. Stay tuned, folks for all upcoming editions of 2010 Playcalling so far: An Analysis.
P.S. If anyone is interested in seeing my whole dataset for validation or to do your own analysis, please leave a comment/message me (can you message people on here?) and I will be pleased to share!
EDIT: Title and Tags edited to be more informative
Original Picture Pages is at http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-more-throwing-rock. As always, text and analysis courtesy of Brian.
This is actually an instance of 'N+2 in the box' (where N is the number of available Michigan blockers) executed by Purdue, holding Vincent Smith to a six-yard gain despite all the linemen getting good blocks. By walking down both safeties, Purdue creates an 8-to-6 overmatch in the box.
Wha'hoppon: Michigan has the ball on their own 43 to start their final drive of the first half. They run a zone stretch left. Kerrigan at left DE rushes straight upfield and is blocked by Huyge. It looks like Denard may have a keeper option to the right, but he reads the safety staying down low and hands off to Smith. Omameh blows the backside DT off the ball, Molk gets a good reach block on the playside DT, Schilling helps Molk get that reach block and then releases to go after an LB. Lewan kicks the playside DE out, and Koger takes out the other playside LB. HOWEVA, because Huyge stayed in to block Kerrigan, LB Will Lucas is free to flow down the line and tackle Smith after a gain of six yards.