Diaries

For as long as I have had any statistical training, I have loathed the way that sports commentators use the term “momentum." I realize that I am probably not alone in this regard as member at MGoBlog, nor am I any where near the first to criticize the spurious use of “momentum” or related concepts (“Hot Hand” Fallacy, Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky (1985); Silver (2012); though see Berger and Pope (2009)), but I wanted to be a bit more concrete in my criticisms in the context of college football. Thus, I decided to work on a series of Diaries to try out various ideas about how momentum is discussed – the “Convential Wisdom of Momentum” (CWoM), and see what (if any) evidence there is to show for it.

Adapted from classical mechanics, momentum is commonly understood to mean that once an object or actor has been set in a particular direction, it will continue along this path until acted upon by another force. In the context of sports, momentum would suggest that teams that have had success tend to continue to be successful, and typically is discussed at the micro-level within individual games (i.e. play-to-play, drive-to-drive), as opposed to the macro level across games. Note that I do acknowledge “psychological momentum,” in that players may start to view the game differently depending upon recent events. Most athletes have had some experience of “flow” (Csikszentmihalyi 1988) wherein they get "in the zone," and their automated responses drive their performance. However, I think this plays a relatively small role at high-level athletic competition since most athletes are "flowing," having spent sufficient time training to develop it.

With this game-level focus in mind, the first example of "momentum" I wanted to consider was the idea that in overtime games, the team coming from behind has momentum, which became all the more germane after this weekend’s game. CWoM suggests that the team that has to tie the game up to force overtime would be more likely to win the game outright.

To investigate this hypothesis, I decided to look into the awesome CFB Stats data, which was released under an Open Data Commons attribution license. I only looked at complete years, so all of my analysis is based on games from the 2005-2011 football seasons. Out of 5,534 FBS and FCS games during this time period, 231 games went to overtime. I eliminated one game (the October 22, 2005 matchup between Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic) from the analysis because at the end of regulation, the game was tied 0-0 and thus neither team could be considered to be leading going into overtime. This left me with 230 games in the sample.

The basic prediction of CWoM in overtime is that the last team to score before the end of regulation will have a greater chance of winning in overtime. I’ll test this prediction, along with a couple of other ways of looking at the same underlying phenomenon. So, how do teams that come from behind fair in OT?

Not especially well. Out of 230 games, the team coming from behind won only 104/230 (45%) of the time. A Chi-square t test suggests that the differences observed here are random (χ²(1) = 2.10, p = .15), indicating that our data does not suggest that either come-from-behind or leading teams have an advantage in overtime. Breaking things out by conference does not suggest anything unusual, either, nor do the results of the statistical tests differ (χ²(11) = 6.11, p = .87). This result is also not changed by only considering the six biggest conferences (ACC, Big East, B1G, PAC-12, SEC and Big 12) where results could be less affected by the small sample sizes (χ²(5) = 2.46, p = .78).

What about home teams? Given the excitement of a come-from-behind score to tie the game and send it to overtime, it would seem very plausible that home teams might fare better in come-from-behind overtime scenarios. Note that for this analysis, neutral site games are treated as “away” games for both teams. Overall, home teams won 128/230 games (56%), and within come-from-behind games, 60% of the time the home team won. However, the difference observed is not significant (χ²(1) = 1.21, p = .27), suggesting that home teams do not perform unusually well in come-from-behind games.

So far, we have not found any evidence to support the CWoM hypothesis that come-from-behind teams perform better in overtime. There are two more factors I considered that might shed more light on the situation. The first was how close to the end of the game the final score occurred. If the final, tying score in regulation happened very close to the end of the game, this might make it more likely that the team coming from behind would continue their success into overtime. For this analysis, I only considered games wherein the tying score occurred in the fourth quarter, leaving 216 out of the 230 total games. To model this relationship, I used a binary logistic regression with the dependent variable as the outcome of the game for the coming-from-behind team, and the independent variable the number of seconds remaining in the game. The results of this regression indicate that the time at which the tying score occurs does not predict the outcome of the game (Exp(β) = 1.00, p > .65). Because logistic regressions do not lend themselves to obvious interpretation, I split the data into groups of more or less than two minutes of game time remaining. Across both groups, we see a similar pattern to what we observe in the overall data set – that the team that led most recently tends to win in overtime, but this difference appears a bit more pronounced when the tying score occurred in the last two minutes of regulation. This difference is not significant, though (χ²(1) = 1.27, p > .26)

The last component of the come-from-behind momentum hypotheses I wanted to investigate was how big the comeback was – that is, does coming back from a bigger deficit increase the odds of coming out on top? Again, I used a logistic regression with the dependent variable as the outcome of the game for the coming-from-behind team, and the independent variable the maximum point differential between the two teams through the game. The results of this regression indicate that the maximum point differential does not predict the outcome of the game (Exp(β) = 1.11, p > .71). Again, for clarity, I also provide a categorical analysis, with the maximum point differential divided into less than two TDs and more than two. In close games, we see largely the same pattern as before, with the team coming from behind winning only 42% of the time. However, in games with bigger differentials in points, 57% of the time, the team coming from behind comes out on top. This difference is marginally significant (χ²(1) = 2.42, p > .08), but I put more faith in the logistic result since it is a more robust test.

In conclusion, I do not see any evidence to support the CWoM hypothesis that the last team to score has “momentum” going into overtime. Even considering a variety of other factors that have some lay theoretical association with momentum (home team advantage, scoring late and big comebacks), nothing presents an even mildly compelling case for it. Our experience this weekend – tying the game following a dramatic Roundtree catch with less than 10 seconds on the clock – brought us to overtime with what one would call a great deal of momentum, which we capitalized on by winning decisively. However, the numbers just do not support this narrative. In reality, our odds of winning based on the way in which we got to overtime were not different from a coin toss.

I am hoping to continue this series by looking at various other situations that the CWoM views as “momentum swings,” such as 4^th down stops, kickoff returns, picks and safeties. If you have other ideas, would like to see more analysis within this data or have comments on this project, please let me know. Thanks for reading, and Go Blue.

    In the post-game press conference, Brady Hoke was asked, "If you were in our shoes, wouldn't you have started writing the story before the game ended?" He answered, "No." To which, he was asked, "Why not?" Let me attempt to answer for Brady. Quite simply, because we're Michigan, FERGODSAKES! That doesn't convince you? OK, how about a few examples:

Exhibit A
    On November 6, 2010, Michigan played a football game against Illinois that went to triple overtime. Had I been writing this diary back then, I'm sure I would have ended up with carpal tunnel syndrome; a lengthy boxscore that was. Michigan's defense had trouble stopping the Illini all game long. We were down to our backup QB, who managed to keep us in the game even with the defensive problems. The game ended when the Michigan defense stepped up and made a stop.

Exhibit B
    On September 10, 2011, Michigan played a football game against Notre Dame. Michigan got the ball with 28 seconds left on our own 20 yard line, trailing by three. A ridiculous pass play to Jeremy Gallon brought us into scoring range. Hoke went for the win. Roy Roundtree caught a TD pass which sealed what I thought to be Michigan's most improbable victory.

Exhibit C
    On November 10, 2012, Michigan played a football game against Northwestern. Michigan's defense had trouble stopping the Wildcats all game long. But again, Michigan's backup QB kept making plays to keep us in it. Michigan got the ball with 18 seconds left on our own 38, trailing by three. A ridiculous pass play to Roy Roundtree brought us into scoring range. Hoke went for the tie (more on that later) and Gibbons made the kick, sending us to overtime. The game ended when the Michigan defense stepped up and made a stop.

    Yes, on occasion we do lose those types of games, but every now and then, and more often than you would think, Michigan wins. Impossibly, improbably, with a little bit of luck or good fortune, Michigan finds a way. That's why I would never leave a game early or give up on the team, or start writing a story before the story has completed on the field.
  
Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/111012aaa.html

Burst of Impetus
* NW scored with 5:30 left in the third to go up by 10. Things weren't looking so good for our Maize and Blue Men. Our next drive started off slow: an incomplete pass followed by an 11 yard chop block penalty. A little screen pass left us with 3rd and 17 from our own 15 yard line. It was then that Borges went into ND '11 mode (jump balls for all). A deep pass attempt resulted in a PI penalty against NW. First down Michigan. Gardner then went to Gallon for 42 more yards. A short pass to Touss was turned into a 28 yard TD scamper by some nifty Fitz footwork. Even though we were still behind, Impetus had clearly returned to the M sideline.

Malachi Crunch
* It's hard to be positive when you give up 27 first downs to these guys, but I'll try.

* NW ended up with 431 total offense yards. That's the same amount that Alabama, the greatest team ever assembled, a pretty good offense, had against us. I never would have guessed that Alabama and NW would be equivalent at anything. After the Alabama game, I wrote, "If we can hold everyone else under 431, I’ll be happy." NW didn't get more than 431, so I'm not unhappy, I'm just confused.
* Thomas Gordon led us in tackles with 11, not a good sign. Demens and Morgan were next with 9 apiece. Considering Mattison substituted freely with the LBs, that's a lot of tackles.
* TFLs returned with a vengeance, as we recorded 8.
* Wistert Kovacs was all over the field. You might have thought there were three number 11s out there (there really should have been.) Kovacs had 5 tackles, a TFL and 2 pass breakups.
* I noticed Bolden playing in NW's first series. I was a little confused by that since the recent trend has been to go with Morgan and Demens almost exclusively. It seems like Mattison's gameplan was to rest his guys, knowing that they were going to be doing an awful lot of east-west running, and that it was likely going to be a 4 quarters game. The plan obviously worked, as Demens was fresh enough at the end to make the two biggest tackles of the day on successive plays.
* Continuing on this theme, 24 players recorded tackles, likely a record for the 2 seasons I've been doing this.
* In case it hasn't been said before, Greg Mattison is a genius. Have you ever seen a defense run a trick play? I'm not talking about zone blitzes or OKIE packages or whatever. That last defensive play was a legitimate trick play, akin to the Statue of Liberty or Halfback pass. From going with a 4-3 alignment all season long, to switch to a 3-4 with the DEs split way outside and then blitzing your two best defensive players right up the gut. That was madness and genius all rolled up in one.

Ermahgerdner
* In his first start at Michigan, Gardner was 16 for 29 for 286 yards and 2 TDs.
* I went to the Rose Bowl where Vince Young destroyed our defense. I get the comparisons. It's early, but I think Gardner is the better passer and Young is the better runner.
* For not wanting to run Gardner, he still ended up with 9 carries for 47 yards and 2 TDs. Most were scrambles, not designed runs.

Bunches of Funchess
* Funchess only catch was an 8 yard TD. I thought he was partly to blame for Gardner's INT. It appeared he was waiting for the ball to fall gently into his hands, instead of high pointing the ball. This gave the NW DB time to get over and make the pick.
* Another inconsistent day (if you don't get the sarcasm, see last week's diary) for Jeremy Gallon. Seven catches for 94 yards with a long of 42. I'm betting he gets at least honorable mention Hoke double finger points in tomorrow's recap.
* Roundtree was in the right place at the right time, twice. The first time, Fitz' fumble went through his hands. The second time, the NW DB deflected the ball to him. This time, he caught the ball and set us up for the game-tying FG. That may have been the quietest 139 yard receiving day in M history, other than the miraculous deflection, of course.

And Justice for Rawls
* After last week, I thought Rawls had won the job, but this week it was back to the Fitz 2 YPC show (with the possibility of one long run that may or may not end in a TD or fumble.) Rawls gained 1 yard on 3 carries.
* Touss led us with 92 yards rushing, and caught one TD pass that was due all to his footwork.

Norf and Souf
* Norfleet had 4 kickoff returns for 107 yards, with a long of 37, but the real story of the return game was the 23 yard punt return from Jeremy Gallon that gave us hope near the end of the game.
* We were a +6 in net yards per punt, but a -4 in net yards per kickoff, and it could have been a lot worse.

Zonkeys
* NW was penalized 8 times for 75 yards, while Michigan was penalized only twice for 26 yards. Some penalties are obvious, and some can be considered judgment calls. For example, when Gardner gets NW to jump offsides, that's an obvious call. When a NW lineman grabs a Michigan player's jersey, while it may be obvious to us, it's still somewhat of a judgment call. The reason NW was penalized so much more than us is that they made several obvious penalties.
* What frustrated me were the judgment calls that were not called on NW. On their first drive, the first time we've given up a TD this year on a first drive, an NW player grabbed Jake Ryan's jersey and pulled so hard, the "7" on Ryan's back ended up on top of his shoulder pads. I think that was on Trumpy's 21 yard run, also the first time in awhile we've given up anything to a running back. So for the rest of the game, I kept waiting for the Zonkeys to call a holding penalty on NW. If you think about, NW's style is to run a lot of east-west directional plays, which requires linemen (and receivers) to hold (there's that word again) their blocks longer than a straight north-south type running attack. That should make them more susceptible to holding calls.
* If you think I'm spending too much time on this, go look at the last play GIF where Demens makes the tackle. I watched that play a dozen times. Jibreel Black busts through the gap between the center and the guard. The center reaches behind Black, grabs his shirt, and pulls it down below his butt. No flag. Didn't matter as we made the stop, but that crap went on all game long and NW was called for at most, one holding penalty (the kick return that wiped out a TD, FWIW.)

Outside the Boxscore
* Last year, Brady went for the win against ND. This year, he went for OT. I think both decisions were correct, maybe just based on hindsight, but Denard had just broken ND's spirit, and we weren't sure about our FG kickers yet. Plus, we had an extra second to spare. Against NW, I just had the feeling that with a short field in OT, Mattison could play more aggressively and sell out against the run. Make Kain Colter beat you with his arm. NW's last four plays: run, run, run, run. Kain Colter was never going to beat us with his arm. Game, set, match, Greg Mattison.

Notre Dame edges closer to Michigan for the top spot despite the pickup of Da'Mario Jones, Nebraska moves up the board, and Minnesota gets a flurry of commits to... stay in last by a wide margin, actually. Baby steps. Changes since the last rankings:

10-28-12: Penn State picks up Richy Anderson. Minnesota picks up Eric Carter.
10-31-12: Michigan picks up Da'Mario Jones. Demetrius Hill decommits from Indiana. Minnesota picks up Nate Godwin.
11-1-12: Notre Dame picks up Cole Luke. Nebraska picks up Randy Gregory.
11-2-12: Wisconsin picks up Corey Clement.
11-3-12: Minnesota picks up Demaris Peppers.
11-10-12: Northwestern picks up Raymond Davison.

Chart? Chart:

^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

*The product of number of Commits and Average Average

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.

On to the full data after the jump.

BUCKEYE MEMORIES

Part Two

(fact checkers, knock yourselves out, am still going mostly off memory)

1975

Senior year.

Have yet to lose a home game during my tenure as a student.

The Big Ten is now going to allow two teams to go to bowl games.

The tie-breaker rules have been revised to eliminate AD votes. If records are even, and head to head is a tie, non-conference record will be the tie breaker.

Denny Franklin is gone, and we start a rookie QB from Flint, a 3 sport high school star who turns into one of the all time great UM athletes, Rick Leach.

To recap, Ohio, unbeaten-untied national champs 1968, upset by UM in last game of 1969 to cost them that title, lost Rose Bowl in upset to Jim Plunkett led Stanford to cost them 1970 national title, the super sophs graduated, well, left, so 1971 a rebuilding year.

1972 and 1974, lost at MSC in upsets both years, but beat us to go to Rose Bowl and choke.

1973, tie us, beat USC 42-21 in the Rose Bowl. The tie most likely cost them another title.

In those days of the Big Two and the Little Eight, other than MSC, which was away in years we hosted the Buckeyes, the other games were for drinking and passing up co-eds in the stands. Another ritual was throwing the Annie Greenspring – Boones Farm – Mad Dog bottles over the top of the stadium at the end of the 3^rd quarter. Just pass them up in the stands to the folks in the top row, who threw them over the edge.

The streak of 100,000 plus started at the end of the 1974 season. The legal drinking age was 18. You could bring a keg into the game, if you had a ticket for it.

The field had not been dug down yet, so the cheerleaders did back flips off the wall after every score, counting up the Wolverine points. Whisky the dog still pushed a ball the length of the field at half time.

Almost, maybe every, game started at 1:30 p.m.

We had our own internal countdown clocks.

We start the year with 3 non-conference games, still an 11 game season and no Notre Dame contract yet.

Not sure which was first, but, I think the 19-19 tie with Stanford was. Not a vintage Stanford team. They missed an extra point and Bob Wood made a then record 4 field goals for us.

Despair. Unbelievable. How could this happen?

Then, next week, even worse. 14 – 14 with Baylor.

I could not get drunk enough.

Then the boys rounded into shape, knocking off one of the Little Eight after another.

My first trip for a game was to MSC in 1973. Very memorable. Played in a raging downpour. They crossed midfield once, on a completed pass, but the receiver fumbled and we recovered.

The ever-daring Denny Stoltz punted on third down on consecutive possessions. I think it was 42-0.

In 1975, they were supposed to be good. (OK, I am fact checking this one. I was right!)

I go to MSC to root against Woody once again.

The 11^th game added to the former ten game season, is a conference game, before the three non-conference opponents.

Woody's team is loaded once again, led by returning Heisman winner Archie Griffin.

21-0 Ohio crushes Sparty. The long drought up north is over, as they have won all the rest of their regular season games this decade, and the last couple years of the 60s, except for games in our state. (with the exception of the 1971 rebuilding year)

Sparty then rips off 3 in a row, even beating Notre Dame at South Bend. A couple of my MSC buddies were in town for our game, at a kegger at a sorority house. The sorority had to get special permission from their national office to serve beer.

My fraternity then determined which sororities played at half-time of the Mud Bowl, so they were nice to us. Until after Homecoming.

There was still beer in the keg when we had to leave, so we took it with us.

Having run Duff Daugherty out of town for losing to Bo, MSC now thinks they can take us with their new coach, are hosting in East Lansing.

We get a 4^th quarter TD and win 16-6.

MSC is now 0-2 in league play, with no real chance to pass us or Ohio and get to a bowl game.

Being Sparty, they blow a couple of games to finish 7-4.

We go through conference play undefeated, 8-0-2, to face the 10-0 Buckeyes. The Orange Bowl announces it will be ecstatic to take the LOSER of the game to face the Big Eight champ.

I decided it would be appropriate to greet Archie Griffin, finishing what would be his second Heisman winning campaign, with a couple of oranges.

A bunch of baseball players lived in the house and they/I invited me to join them and other male varsity athletes (uh, I was never in that category) to guard the banner from another Buckeye attack.

I just jumped on the field and milled around with them, following along.

It is awesome to stand at midfield and look up at a full house before the Ohio game.

Back in the day, I was big for my size. I was hoping Ohio would storm us at mid-field; then I would be sure to nail Archie with the oranges secreted in my pocket.

Sure enough, the Suckeyes stormed out of the tunnel and came right for us.

Man, they were big! Being in cleats didn't hurt as far as obtaining a height advantage over 6 foot even me. I let the legitimate guardians hold up the banner, and left my hands in my pockets holding the oranges.

The line held, and Woody led them off to the Ohio side.

I planned (again) to go the Rose Bowl after we won. The home team had not lost a Bo-Woody game yet.

Cornelius Greene led them down the field for a score on their first possession.

Our defense then held them to: ten

                                                consecutive

                                                three and outs.

Greg Mattison, eat your heart out. Ten in a row, with the Heisman winning running back.

We are up 14-7 in the 4^th quarter.

One of our Tds, I believe the first, was a halfback pass from Gordon Bell.

Buckeye ball. Third and long. Greene is backed into his own end zone. A Wolverine dives and grabs one ankle. Greene barely gets off the pass.

It is complete.

For first down.

They get all the way down to tie the score.

Now, a tie sends Woody to the Rose Bowl, because we would have the exact same conference record, and a head to head tie, but, we had those damn ties to Stanford and Baylor and would lose the non-conference tie break.

So, we had to pass.

Picked off.

Run back inside the ten.

Buckeyes get a touchdown.

Massive letdown. One home loss in four years.

So, Orange Bowl trip instead.

I was five rows from the top of the upper deck, and cringed at the hits the Selmon brothers were dealing out. Oklahoma had the two Selmons, and, another D lineman who also made all pro.

For the only time in his career, Ricky was knocked out of the game, by an blatant late hit about 3 strides out of bounds. In front of a referee.

Which was not called.

The Buckeyes had blown yet another Rose Bowl, this time to UCLA, opening up the national title.

And Oklahoma took it, by beating us 14-6.

Trivia note: NBC-TV forsook its longtime logo, the peacock, for a stylish “N”, unveiled, of course, on January 1, 1976, first day of the bi-centennial.

Turns out it was the same logo as Nebraska public TV, so they had to change it.

I sneaked into the NBC party before the game with a fraternity brother who did have an invite. When someone tried to bust me, asking if he could help me, I said sure, I'd like a scotch on the rocks. He said show me your ticket. My bro slipped his to me while the exchange took place.

Ahh, the brashness of youth.

P.S. to Ace:  yes, I am older than dirt.

A warm front lifting through the area will bring plenty of warm temperatures, but also scattered showers (it's associated low is in the plains). We'll see the cloud cover decrease during the day and also the rain chance too. It's going to be a pleasant evening to celebrate a win and enjoy the remainder of parents and family weekend!

Tailgating

A few scattered showers passed through overnight and they may linger into the morning hours. For you early risers, it's just a bit cool to start the day-sitting in the mid 40s until sunrise. By mid-morning we'll hit 50 degrees and keep the overcast skies. Winds are very light at about 5-6mph out of the SSE.

Kickoff

Continuing to warm up and getting to 55 for the game's start. Might be just starting to get some glimpses of the sun, and there is still a slight chance of a passing shower and we're hanging on to a lot of those clouds! Winds are southerly at about 8mph.

Halftime

A little warmer as you watch the band - 59 degrees for the half. Keeping mostly cloudy skies and winds out of the south at 10mph (leaves rustle about).

Post-Game

Would you believe it's a November game?! 62 degrees in leaving the stadium with mostly cloudy skies. Winds remain out of the south at about 15mph. By dinner time, we're partly cloudy and dry - and grab a drink & stay out late with such mild temperatures! Mid 50s for dinner drops to 50 by the time the doors close. Mostly sunny for Veterans Day, but it will be breezy - gusts in the mid 30s - so be safe if you're driving home from an A2 visit! Go Blue!

Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI, and temporarily for NBC25 in Flint/Saginaw, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

this week's miniprogam. comments and corrections are appreciated.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/112621483/NW-Miniprogram-2012

NW Miniprogram 2012