Diaries

[Ed: also check out Tom's Jehu Chesson interview.]

Detroit Catholic Central is the home of 2012 commit DE Matt Godin and 2013 RB target Wyatt Shallman (6'3", 248 lbs). Both were in attendance at Michigan's BBQ on Sunday and took in all the festivities. The event was probably more important for Shallman since his teammate Godin is already committed to the Wolverines. Here's a look at Wyatt's sophomore film and what he had to say about the event.

TOM: I know you're friends with a lot of the 2013 instate prospects, so did you guys all hang out at the BBQ?

WYATT: Yeah I was with the 2013 guys a lot. Shane [Morris] and [Jonny] Reschke. Their schools are two of our biggest rivals and usually Catholic Central kids wouldn't be caught dead with them. It was fun to sit down and not talk about high school football. It's interesting to talk about Michigan and to get a point of view from other teams about our high school. They're all a bunch of great guys, and they're all funny. Steve [Elmer] is a good guy too. He's a big dude; he's a beast. All of the 2013 kids are great.

TOM: Because of proximity I'm assuming you don't get to see Steve Elmer as much as the other guys. Was that your first time meeting him?

WYATT: The first time I ever met Steve I had heard about him during the season last year. I heard about some big dude and then I met him at the Notre Dame spring game for the first time. He's a teddy bear off the field but he's a killer on the field.

TOM: What was it like being out there with some of the guys that have committed already? Were they talking Michigan up?

WYATT: That was something that was interesting. A lot of the kids that were there today it's not like I knew them, I've played them though. Like James Ross. I know Danny O'Brien through Matt [Godin]. We were all just hanging out and playing catch out on the field and there was some chemistry with everyone. It was a different experience to get to know everyone in that atmosphere.

TOM: Since you're relatively close to Michigan have you been up there quite a bit, or was this all a new experience for you?

WYATT: I live twenty minutes away and the only time that I've really been there was to an Ohio State game in seventh grade, and also when I got my offer. This time we walked around campus, took a tour, and it was interesting to learn all the tradition and old things that are behind Ann Arbor. It's a cool little funky town. This visit was pretty sweet, I liked it a lot. Anytime you go on a visit and get good food and get to go on the field it's going to help. Plus the coaching staff is awesome, they're all really funny guys.

TOM: Since Matt Godin is your teammate and committed to Michigan has he been trying to recruit you at all?

WYATT: Matt and I, the recruiting has kind of cooled off because we're focused on the season. These visits aren't really the main attention right now. We start conditioning and two-a-days and we have our season right now to look at. He's been working hard though, and I'm really excited for his future. 

TOM: With your recruitment do you really know yet what you're looking for? 

WYATT: I don't know what I'm looking for yet, which is why I want to wait to decide. This isn't NCAA Football '12 where you can recruit a kid because he likes the college closer to home. There's a lot that goes into this, and there isn't one set thing that will make me go to a college. If it's the right fit for my family and I feel comfortable there then that's what I want.

Missouri receiver Jehu Chesson took in Ann Arbor with his family for the BBQ this past weekend. It was his first time up with the new coaching staff and he came away very impressed. Here's a look at his film and what he had to say about the trip.

TOM: I know you sent me a text after the BBQ that said the visit was great, but what made it so great?

JEHU: I got there and we actually got there Saturday night. We went to the barbecue on Sunday and I just liked how I got to meet the coaches and talk to Coach Heck about football. We didn't talk too much but at the end we found some privacy and talked recruiting.

TOM: You went with your family this time, who all went with you?

JEHU: My mom and dad took me and my brother. My dad had been there before, but they seemed to like it. My mom really likes the campus and my brother likes the Big House.

TOM: What kind of stuff was Coach Hecklinski talking to you and your family about?

JEHU: We didn't talk too much football. It was a public event so we talked about recruiting a little bit. We mostly talked about that and he was straight up with me and said that if two wide receivers commit then the receiver position is done. I feel like they're letting me know in advance what's going on with recruiting, which I like. I'm going to stay on my own track because I want to make sure I see all the schools I'm interested in. Coach Heck[linski] was just saying though that there's two spots so if one guy commits he's going to let me know. That speaks volumes with them.

TOM: Just to be clear they're going to let you know if someone else commits but that doesn't necessarily mean you'll jump and make a decision right?

JEHU: Right. They're going to let me know, and I can figure out what to do from there but I'd like to take my visits and everything.

TOM: With Michigan it seems like you have a good amount of interest, is that the case?

JEHU: Yeah, they have something going there but you don't really know until you see them play. They're one of the schools that I'm going to watch closely. Coach Hoke seems very family oriented, and I liked how the coaches brought their families to the barbecue to introduce them. 

TOM: After this visit do you feel a higher comfort level with the coaches and maybe even the program?

JEHU: Yeah the coaches signed contracts for a certain amount of years, but I feel stability shouldn't be a problem there. Looking at what Hoke did at San Diego State they will definitely turn things around. 

TOM: Was there anything that really stuck out to you about this visit?

JEHU: We watched a highlight film; it was a neat film they put together. It was basically about them rising back up, it got some guys fired up. That was what really stuck out, and also that it was family oriented.

TOM: Now that you have this visit done with what's next?

JEHU: I'm going to meet with my counselors and talk to them about what schools I want to narrow it down to. I should have a top list before summer ends.

You know by now that Chris Wormley has committed to Michigan and become the 21st commitment for the 2012 class. While he was the only commitment at the BBQ the event was a hit. Here's a look at reactions from some of the visiting prospects. As always you can follow me on Twitter @TomVH and email me any tips or questions at [email protected]. 

Danny O'Brien

6'2", 295 lbs.

Defensive Tackle

Flint, Michigan

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O'Brien has been listing Michigan as one of his favorites for some time now. This visit gave him a chance to get more personal with the coaches and other commits.

This visit definitely helped Michigan; I had a great visit. I got even more comfortable with the coaches and I'm good friends with a lot of the commitments so that was fun. I saw the locker room this time too, I never saw that before.

Now that he has taken this visit he will have to try to cut down his list even more and soon make a decision.

I'm going to think about my comfort level this week and where I'm at with everything. I have a top six of Michigan, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Michigan State, and Iowa right now. I'm going to cut that down to three and then take official visits to those schools. I know Michigan said they're only taking one defensive tackle, but if they want to take two I will still consider them if someone commits before me.

Danny has mentioned to me before that he knows the coaches have said they'll only take one, but he thinks there's a good chance they could take two. 

Steve Elmer

6'6", 297 lbs.

Offensive Tackle

Midland, Michigan

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Steve Elmer and his father have been on Michigan's campus a few times this year, and this time he got to bring his mother and brother along as well. I caught up with Steve Elmer Sr. to talk about their trip.

This visit was a little different because more of my family was there. My wife, Steven, and my middle son were all there. We got to spend more time with the coaches and their families. We actually got a picture with all the 2013 kids; Shane Morris, Wyatt Shallman,  and Jonny Reschke. They all got a chance to talk.

While the Elmers didn't necessarily see anything that they haven't before they got to see things from a different angle this time.

We had a different perspective on everything. We took a normal tour that they would give to incoming freshman, maybe a little abbreviated. We went to all the athletic stuff, and I don't know if it was a coincidence but we sat with the Dean of Admissions and a couple academic people. We spent some time with Shari Acho, too. My wife didn't meet her last time so it was good she got to meet her.

This visit also gave them a better chance to catch some one on one time with Brady Hoke. 

We got to spend more time with the coaches, which is important because we're looking for a comfort level. When we were at camp Brady Hoke was very busy and this time there were only around twenty kids there. There was about four or five occasions that we got some time to talk with the head coach. We met his wife too, and she is legitimately a genuinely nice person. They played some highlights, some things about Michigan, and then Brady Hoke spoke and got us all pumped up. The message was pretty much to restore the pride, that he's bringing Michigan back.

Elmer has already received a few early offers and will see plenty more roll in. While I don't think they want to drag his recruitment out the family wants to find the place that Steven feels is right for him, however long that takes.

Ondre Pipkins

6'3", 325 lbs.

Defensive Tackle

Kansas City, Missouri

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Ondre Pipkins' visit was one of the more anticipated by the fans. Ondre had told me prior to his visit that there was a chance that he could announce at the event. Obviously that didn't happen, but it doesn't mean it still won't. As you can imagine he was busy today, so when we spoke he kept it short and sweet. I asked him what the visit told him about Michigan and if he would be visiting again soon.

Michigan men take care of Michigan men. That means that they take care of you beyond football. And yeah, I'll visit again.

The important part about saying he'll visit again is that he's still in the state of Michigan for some time. So there is a chance that he will be visiting again while he's on this current stay in the state. We'll see what happens.

Jonny Reschke

6'2", 210 lbs.

Linebacker

Bloomfield Hills, Michigan

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Reschke is a 2013 prospect fresh off of a Michigan State offer. He took in Ann Arbor today for basically the first time today as a recruit. 

This was basically my first time there. The Big House was unbelievable. We were just saying how crazy this place is packed. We took a tour of everything, and I love the campus up there. It was great. 

Jonny believes that this visit will help him not only get to know MIchigan better but also get closer to an offer from the Wolverines.

I talked to Coach Smith one on one.  All the coaches really like me. Coach Smith told me he's going to take a look at some tape and that I should call Coach Jackson soon. If he doesn't answer then I should call Coach Smith. He didn't say that I was getting an offer, but he was kind of implying it, so I think it's close. After camp they had a dead week and then they put on this BBQ, so they need to regroup and start recruiting again.

The visit really helped with my comfort level though, and it was really cool to see all the kids together. Coach Hoke's speech was pretty awesome and then they played a video, too. I just want to play football right now after that.

As I mentioned Reschke has an offer from Michigan State, and that hit home with him mainly because of where his father went to school.

My dad played at MSU in 1979. It doesn't matter though; he's going to let me make my own choice. He wants me to play somewhere that I'll have an opportunity to play. I'm not going to wait until after my senior year, I want to get it done with. It will probably be around this time next year, I just want to check out all the places that want me during the spring. I'll also probably be back to Michigan for the Notre Dame game.

I believe at this point it's probably a Michigan vs MSU scenario right now for Reschke. We'll see how his recruitment plays out.

Ty Isaac

6'3", 202 lbs.

Running Back

Joliet, Illinois

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Isaac is a 2013 running back prospect that made it in for the BBQ this weekend. This was his first time on campus and he seemed to come away very impressed.

I've been talking to Coach Hecklinski and he told me to come out to the school. We went on a tour, met all the coaches, and I really liked it a lot. We talked to the coaches and most of them knew who I was. I was just happy I could get on campus and get a feel for everything. It was my first time there so I didn't know what to expect. I enjoyed it, I went up there not knowing much about Michigan but it really surprised me. I'm excited to go back and check it out again to get there for a game. This was different, I didn't know what to expect so it was good for me, I really liked it.

Isaac has now been out to Michigan, Illinois, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin. He says he will try to make it out to all the schools that offer and maybe a few more as well. 

To me every school has a uniqueness about it. The way Michigan went about everything and the feel of everything was different. I'll definitely try to get up to games for the schools that have offered. I can't really give you a timeline for everything though, I'm not too sure when I want to make my decision. And to be honest I don't really have a list yet, that's the truth. Everyone wants the big schools, but I want whatever fits me the best, that's where I want to be. I just don't know yet.

It seems like Michigan has done themselves a favor after this visit with Isaac. They haven't offered him yet, but it seems likely that he will eventually receive one from Michigan. 

Extra:

This post is starting to get pretty long so I'm going to save a couple posts for this week. I'll have 2013 RB Wyatt Shallman's thoughts, WR Jehu Chesson, and RB Bri'onte Dunn. Bri'onte's father told me that this visit also helped Michigan with his son, I'll have more from them later in the week. I still think Michigan has a chance with him, I just believe he'll take his time with everything.

WR Amara Darboh told me that he's going to talk to his coach about his last MIchigan visit and his choices overall after camp. His camp ends Wednesday and he'll likely have a short list out soon after. He said that Michigan is up there on the list, but he still wants to have his guardians see what he saw at Michigan, and all the other schools he's seen as well.

I wanted to mention WR Monty Madaris. I had made a comment that because he wasn't visiting for the BBQ Michigan's chances to land a receiver will be pushed back, and that I thought Michigan was in good shape with him and Darboh. I said that not to imply that Madaris was 100% going to commit to Michigan, but that he had mentioned to me it wasn't out of the question. I didn't mean to say that Michigan was the leader and that they were definitely getting him. When I said that Michigan was in good shape I simply meant that they are in the top group for now. I receieved an email from a confused reader and figured I would share with everyone.

This diary is fairly straightforward: Denard's 2011 Heisman Video

I've mashed up Denard's quest for the trophy with the trailers from the most recent Star Trek movie (which I loved, and the trailers were quite good).  If you're interested in seeing the original source material, you can see the Trailers by clicking the following:  Trailer #2  Trailer #3

Without further delay, onto the video:

 

 

Now, a few quick points of interest, as people had similar questions/points last time:

• The video is a mash of the first 1+ of Trailer #2, and the last 1:50+ of Trailer #3.
• No particular reason for the HS Denard + Michigan Denard highlight mix at the beginning, I just liked how similar many of the plays were.
• I tried to avoid redundancy with the highlights from the Hype Video, but unfortunately Denard was so much of that video, overlap couldn't be helped.  I tried to find some different angled shots though.  
• The repetition of the ESPN clips with the jersey and shoes, yeah, I know, but it just worked so well, and it's rare to have such good footage to mash-up.
• If you don't like Star Trek, or like Trek but hate the new movie ... tough
• Every time I hear "enlist in Starfleet" with the trophy ... I get chills
• That's Erin Andrews speaking at the end, in case you were curious
• The Robot? Original trailers were from "Bad Robot" productions. Plus, it's the robot.
• Quick shoutout to my boy mgouser "Chicago Maize and Blue" for his help/feedback.

Thanks for watching and commenting, per usual it's incredibly appreciated.  Believe it or not I do take your comments and feedback into account going forward, and I'm open to any suggestions you have for future video ideas.  I can put pretty much anything together provided there's video of it on YouTube.  Thanks again.  

Michigan has picked up more commits, so that means we hit the front page. (Tons of) action since last rankings:

7-21-11 Iowa gais commitment from Ryan Ward.
7-24-11 Illinois gains commitment from Joey Warburg.
7-25-11 Iowa gains commitment from Michael Malloy.
7-26-11 Michigan gains commitment from Sione Houma.Penn State gains commitment from Jake Kiley.
7-27-11 Indiana(!) gains commitment from Gunner Kiel.
7-28-11 Michigan State gains commitments from Aaron Burbridge and Jermaine Edmondson. Indiana gains commitment from Jason Spriggs.
7-29-11 Purdue gains commitment from Andy Garcia.
7-30-11 Minnesota gains commitment from Jonah Pirsig.
7-31-11 Michigan gains commitment from Chris Wormley.

PLUS, Scout updated their rankings, so there's a little bit of movement there.

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank	School	# Commits	Rivals Avg	Scout Avg	ESPN Avg	24/7 Avg
1	Michigan	21	3.38	3.57	3.43	3.48
2	Notre Dame	12	3.25	3.67	3.33	3.25
3	Ohio State	11	3.27	3.36	3.18	3.36
4	Michigan State	13	3.15	3.15	3.08	3.15
5	Penn State	13	3.00	2.85	3.00	2.77
6	Wisconsin	8	3.13	3.25	2.75	2.88
7	Indiana	15	2.27	2.60	2.71	2.40
8	Northwestern	13	2.62	2.38	2.38	1.85
9	Minnesota	17	2.47	2.24	2.38*	1.94
10	Nebraska	5	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.80
11	Iowa	8	3.13	2.63	3.00	2.63
12	Purdue	9	2.33	2.11	2.38	2.00
13	Illinois	6	2.17	2.67	2.17	2.33

*ESPN doesn't rate JUCOs, so Isaac Fruechte is not included in Minnesota's average, Darius Stroud doesn't count against Indiana's average, and Steffon Martin is excluded from Purdue's.

On to the full data, after the jump.

There’s a widespread theory that Lloyd Carr’s career can be split in two phases: a “good” young Carr and a “senile” old Carr. But is it statistically sound?

If you look at straight winning percentage, this seems, well, inconclusive.  But, the argument goes, there’s more to success or failure than just winning more than you lose.  There’s whom you beat, and who beats you. There’s wins-versus-expectations-of-wins. There’s where you end up ranked. There’s whether you play in a major bowl game, and if you win it. Most importantly, there are those three pesky rivalries, particularly the one with Columbus.

As some have argued, Carr put really competitive teams on the field early on, but later ones tended to disappoint, to flag late in the game, and to underachieve. The four-game stretch between OSU 2006 and Oregon 2007, it has been said, is the worst in recent memory, and this is mentioned as proof that Lloyd Carr had lost it at the end. But did he really?

You could try answering this with winning percentages, bowl appearances and clever argumentation, but mgoblog is a well-known haven for quantification nerds, whose denizens crave robust new measures that capture things the dinostats can’t. After all, aren’t away wins more dramatic than home wins, and home losses more embarrassing than the away ones? Isn’t it more consequential to lose in-conference than outside of it? Doesn’t it feel just that much better to beat Sparty than Purdue? Notre Dame than Illinois?  OSU than everyone? My mission was to create new indices of success, measured across the course of a season, that capture more than just wins and losses—also heights soared to, depths plumbed, the intangibles. I created two, which are related to one another, but capture somewhat different aspects of success or failure. 

Constructing the Indices

Constructing the indices begin with regular season games. A baseline score is produced for wins and losses, valued at 10 and 0 respectively. To this baseline measure, a series of intangible weights are added for all regular season games. It’s all a little long-winded for here, but I can make it available to anyone who wants to know. The categories are: 1) Who the opponent is; 2) Relative ranking to UM; 3) Home/away; 4) Margin-of-victory; and 5) Performance versus expectations. All scores are ordinal, so it required some subjective decisions on relative worth of these categories, but the same criteria were applied to each case, so it should be reasonably objective.

Let me break down a couple. The best single-game score for the period 1994-2010 was the ecstatic 1996 win at Ohio State, which received a score of 21:

10 (win) + 5 (OSU) + 3 (top 5 opponent) + 1 (away win) + 0 (win by less than 20) + 2 (performed well above expectations) = 21

The worst single-game score (surprise surprise) is The Horror, which received a score of -8.  It breaks down like this:

0 (loss) - 0 (non-conference, non-BCS game) -5 (lower league + FCS opponent) -1 (home loss) -0 (loss by less than 20) -2 (performed well below expectations) = -8

Bowl Games and Ranking Bonuses

Bowl games are treated somewhat differently. On the one hand, it’s not right to penalize a team for what’s basically a value-added bonus to the season. On the other, winning is still better than losing. So scoring looks like this:

+5: making any bowl game

+2: making a BCS bowl game

+5: winning the bowl game

+2: winning a BCS bowl game

+/-2: failing to meet/exceeding expectations (broadly defined)

Some examples: 1997 vs. Washington State = 14; 2001 vs. Tennessee = 3; 2004 vs. Texas = 7; and 2007 vs. Florida = 12. 

Ranking bonus averages the final BCS and AP rankings, or if prior to the BCS, the Coaches Poll and AP rankings.  It works like this:

Unranked: 0

+2: 20-25

+3: 19-15

+4: 14-10

+5: 9-5

+6: 4

+7: 3

+8: 2

+9: 1

Which are then granted a bonus or penalty based on preseason expectations. So the 1996 team, with a preseason ranking of 12/11, and which ended up with a final rank of 20, gets a penalty of 1 for ending up below preseason expectations: 2 – 1 = 1. 1997, which ended up with a rank of 1 (we all know the Coaches’ Poll was fixed), began with a preseason rank of 13/14, so that team gets this bonus: 9 + 2 = 11.

EVG and IVG

Total points are added together, and then divided by the number of games played to produce the expected value per game (EVG). The intangible value per game (IVG) index compares subtracts the baseline value for 10 per win with no intangibles, and 0 per loss with no intangibles from total points, and then divides by number of games played (with a 0 value for a missed bowl game). This measures the intangibles solely. Yes, wins produce more positive scores (and losses negative scores), but this measure basically measures elation minus disappointment. As you’ll see, the distributions are similar, but actually more variant than EVG. 

Winning PCT, IVG and EVG by Year, 1995-2007

As you can see, EVG and IVG capture more fluctuation from season to season than straight winning percentage does. IVG is something of a counterbalance to Winning PCT, looking solely at the aforementioned intangibles. EVG takes both into account.

Conclusions

A number of things are immediately apparent.

1. EVG and IVG capture more fluctuations than Winning PCT. Carr had an average winning percentage of 0.753. There were 5 seasons when Carr’s teams beat this average, 2 which were basically at the average, and 6 below it.

By contrast, only 4 seasons beat the average EVG of 9.51, while 9 fell below it (while 5 seasons beat the average IVG of 1.99 in terms of IVG, and 8 fell below it). As you can see, there are more discernable peaks and troughs in these indicators than with straight Winning PCT. EVG in particular appears to successfully capture the big picture while taking the significance of individual games into account.   

2. Though The Horror was the single-worst game of the Carr era, 2007 as a whole wasn’t Carr’s worst season. It was still on the bottom half of the Carr years, but in terms of EVG it was third worst, after 2001 and 2005. In terms of IVG, it was only fourth worst, after 2001, 2002 and 2005. By EVG, 2005 was Carr’s worst season; by IVG, it’s 2002.

3. Carr’s career does not divide neatly into a “good” early period and a “senile” later period. As the figures show, Carr’s career had four peaks—1997, 1999, 2003 and 2006.  By both measures, 1997 was far and away his best season. I had thought that the intangibles might have elevated Tom Brady’s near-NC year in 1999 and/or the Navarre-led 2003 squad that lost to (compliance-dodging) AP national champion USC in the Rose Bowl above the 2006 squad, but they don’t. 2006 scores as Carr’s second best according to Winning PCT and IVG, and third according to EVG. What’s more, when I ran a regression of EVG and IVG by year for 1995-2007, neither produced a statistically significant result, meaning there’s no clear upward or downward trend over time during this period.* Unless we decide to completely ignore the great 2006 team, or some of the disappointing teams from earlier in his career, the good/senile theory looks like a myth we can safely bust.

4. Carr’s teams were most consistent in the middle of his tenure. In terms of EVG, we can say that the years 1995-2000 were more consistent, and less prone to dramatic fluctuations from year to year, than 2001-2007. While not quite good/senile, this does potentially lend itself to critical arguments. With IVG, there’s a sustained trough in the middle (1998-2002), which reflects higher expectations due to the 1997 national championship and too many losses to Michigan State, Notre Dame and marquee non-conference opponents. That makes them the most disappointing stretch of years, when solely considering results versus expectations. That jives with what I remember, especially the 1999 team, my sentimental favorite of the Carr years and one that got so tantalizingly close, but just didn’t make it. 2005 and 2007 also factor in as IVG troughs, but are broken up by 2006, which got a very high IVG score.

So what does this all mean?  Some things should already be obvious—Carr had some good years and some bad years, The Horror was horrific, 1997 was awesome, etc. On the other hand, the strongly suggest the “early good/late senile” theory is a myth.  Statistically speaking, it didn’t shake out that way. Doesn’t mean we can’t, or shouldn’t, criticize some aspects of Carr’s head coaching career—but let’s look at it dispassionately.  The man gave us some great years, and some disappointing ones; they were just more evenly distributed than we remember them.   

Next Steps?

If enough people want, I’ll do a second round looking at only Big 10 games for Carr.  Additionally, I’ve already collected the data for Rodriguez’s 3 years, and thought I could do Moeller’s 4 as well. It’s a lot of work, so I doubt I’ll ever expand to include other teams, though if anyone else finds it interesting enough, I’d be happy to share the methodology.

*True, this violates assumptions of sufficient randomness and sample size, so it’s not conclusive. But it does show that there’s no evident trend among the small number of data points we have.