chance of bowl: 13.6%
“… An’ it’s a one, two , three, what’re we fightin’ for?
Don’t ask me I don’t give a damn, next stop it’s Col-um-bus,
An’ it’s a five, six, seven, open up the iron gates,
Ain’t no time to wonder why we’re playin’ the game in July.”
It has been my privilege to present to all of you the MGoShirt 2010 Season Line, as designed by yours truly and produced exclusively by Underground Printing in conjunction with our very own MGoBlog.
So before Delany and those other masters or war take away the rest of our freedoms, we have to take action! And yes, many of you are speaking out, writing letters, organizing MGoBlog Be-Ins on the diag, burning bras in front of Shembechler. In other words, power to the maize and blue people! We have the right to be heard! Forrest Gump!!
So today the MGoShirt Alert springs into action, bringing a voice to the masses in high quality cotton blend. Behold, my brothers:
Because you demanded it-- a shirt that tells THE MAN what we think of moving the Ohio State game to earlier in the season, or perhaps off the schedule altogether. Blasphemy, pure and utter blasphemy. We will be heard, we will take action, and we will sport this message on national TV in such frequency that forces Mike Patrick to explain it to the rest of America.
In all my years, I’ve learned that there are two things you must never mess with: the first is LaMarr Woodley, which is, well, pretty much common sense. The second is tradition, and apparently the Big Ten Conference never got this memo. You've already moved the game once; enough is enough. And if you don't believe me, ask Lloyd Carr what he thinks of change. This is the kind of decision that put the RoTel theme song in our heads for an entire autumn last year. Someone's got to have a little common sense over there, right?
DESIGNER INSIDER: M-Wolverine’s sitting over there with a big ol’ grin in the corner, and for good reason. He totally called me out sucka MC-style on Saturday morning to spring into action and design a shirt that would rally the troops on this worthy cause. I thought it through and just tried to say what everyone was thinking with as few words as possible.
This will be the only shirt featured today, and for good reason—In an act of socially responsible solidarity, the forces behind MGoStore have agreed to offer this important shirt at the very affordable price of...
TEN BUCKS, PEOPLE! So do your duty and give a strong message to the powers that be—wear the shirt, send the message. Fight the power. Go Blue.
Also, the special offer still stands—Underground has created the Special Deal for those that want to own the full MGoShirt Alert 2010 collection. Buy all 10 shirts (or any 10 shirts - mix and match your favorites) and get them for $150 (25% off!).
That’ll do it—the store’s full with a whole new batch of shirts. Of course, this isn't all we've done, and I’m sure a few more will emerge as the season progresses. But for now, it’s time for me to back away from the drawing board and find a comfy spot on the couch (no, won’t be in town next week, but that’s another story). Game week officially starts on Monday morning, and there’s much work to be done!! Get the grill tank refilled! Pack up the beer pong table! Wipe down the TV screen! Decide on the gameday menu! Buy the MGoShirts! Clean out the cooler! Make the wife’s spa appointment! Start screaming at the TV now so the dog’s conditioned by next Saturday! I’ll see you all around the blog as we work ourselves into full blown 100% gameday meltdown mode this week!
THE SEASON IS PRACTICALLY HERE!!!
Hello everyone, Six Zero here with the final 2010 installment of:
SIX QUESTIONS WITH BRIAN
Inspired by the official site’s “Two Minute Drill” series and TomVH’s famous Q&A segments with potential recruits, this weekly feature highlights some of the more famous personalities here at MGoBlog. Without pulling back the infamous veil of blog anonymity, we’ll get to know some of your favorite posters better and possibly shed some light on their definition of why it’s so darn Great, To Be, A Michigan Wolverine.
Brian Cook. Or, to give his full given name, Brian Fielding Fritz Harmon Wistert Forest Hercules Oosterbaan Bump Bob Bo Ron Dan Jamie Monte Anthony Ali-Haji Brown Jim Desmond Elvis Hutchinson Todd Tom Drew Leroy Tshimanga Tyrone Charles David A-Train Chris Marquise Marlin LaMarr Braylon Mike Leon Brandon Zoltan Denard Demetrius Cook. The third.
All official namesakes aside, it’s no accident that Brian has found a way to make his living following the team(s) we have sworn our allegiance to. Like many of us, the pride and love and occasional ennui we share for Michigan has been bred throughout Mr. Cook’s entire life. His love of the maize and blue is a God-given gift, and like the way others have been blessed with the talent to sing, draw, or run without secured footwear, Brian has been found his calling in life to use his gift to make the Internet, if not the world, a better place. Let’s catch up with him for this exclusive interview:
1. Once upon a time there was a guy named Brian who decided to start something called a blog. Can you recall exactly when, where you were and what you were doing when you decided to start this thing called MGoBlog?
I'm pretty sure I was laid up on my girlfriend's couch hoping my ribs weren't broken. But first the Wayne's World flashback fingers...
In college I'd co-founded and edited the Every Three Weekly and kept telling myself that I'd only be an engineer for five years and then I'd be awesome, or something, and after I'd become an engineer I kept looking for ways to make that happen. One attempt was supposed to be a magazine about the "Art of the Letter"; a friend and I wrote a bunch of letters to celebrities and hoped they'd respond. No one did. Our letters had no art. Here's one:
WHAT UP MY DOGG JON VOIGHT,
Dude, you probably don’t really want to hear this, but your daughter is really fucking hot. And of course you know I have nothing but honorable intentions towards her, even though she’s as hot as previously stated. Not that I’ve ever met her.
But I was just thinking, dude, if she’s that hot her mom must have been really fucking hot too. Yeah, dogg, you’re the man. The motherfuckin’ man. Literally.
Anyway, in between discussions of how hot your daughter is and attempting to pause Tomb Raider just right so that we can reflect on this fact, we decided we should start a magazine dedicated to the art of the letter and ask you to write us a letter about anything—although if you wanted to talk about how hot Angelina Jolie’s mom was we would totally understand, totally—as long as it’s, you know, pretty interesting. And stuff. Yeah. Really.
So write us, pimpmasta playa JON VOIGHT. True dat.
They were all basically like that: insult some celebrity, ask for a letter. We actually sent these out. We got a PO Box and everything. No one ever wrote us back. In retrospect, obviously. By then I'd heard of blogging and started one with the same guy and some other friends that was directionless and spectacularly unsuccessful. I was the only one who wrote, and not often.
Eventually I decided I needed to do something on my own. Many one-sided conversations about Michigan football with friends that ended with glazed eyes and the little charts (charts!) of Michigan's recruiting classes that I'd doodle in meetings--Justin King featured prominently--made me think that if I was going to write about something it should probably be the thing I already spent too much time following.
The actual creation process was greatly aided by a pratfall. I was leaving my girlfriend's house, it had snowed over a coat of ice, the driveway was angled, and I was carrying my work computer. When I slipped, I instinctively tried to not shatter a 3k laptop and ended up crushing my ribs. They weren't broken but it felt like they could have been and I spent the next few days on my couch, 'working from home' by learning CSS and revamping a blogger template so that it didn't look generic.
Ah yes, the American dream of ‘working from home.’ If I did that I’d probably never be home. Anyway, describe what MGoBlog was like for the first, say, month of its existence. And, when did you realize that this was working, and that you could actually do produce MGoBlog for a living?
In the first month it was a series of short posts linking to other content. It was also very ugly. The long posts and columns that would become the site's trademark were largely absent; posts were frequent and along the lines of "here's a link to this other thing with maybe a sentence added on." It was kind of like Get The Picture except way worse.
I started throwing together longer stuff after that year’s Signing Day by assembling whatever information I could about recruits and linking it up on Rivals, and eventually a small readership formed. After that happened I stopped promoting the blog at all and settled down into content generation. A pattern that's held throughout the blog's existence started up where offseason traffic is pretty much flat, there's a big spike during football season, and then the next offseason's traffic is 2-4 times that of the previous one. I don't advertise at all.
After a couple of those cycles the blog was at around 2000 pageviews a day. I got fired from my job for not doing it--Tropico and blogging take up time--and was in idle, wondering if I should try to get another job or move to New York or what, when Jamie Mottram emailed me with an offer to be one of the lead bloggers for this new AOL Fanhouse thing. That plus the text links and nascent advertising on the site added up to a number somewhere around the poverty line, so I said okay and wrote a lot of eight-dollar posts for AOL. That was when I thought I might be able to do this for a living. I hedged pathetically when anyone asked what my job was, though, and I didn't "realize" it was working for another couple years.
The Lloyd Carr retirement and job search was probably the tipping point, where I was getting information from people who just liked the site and newspaper reporters were specifically debunking stuff I'd passed along and I was just laying everything I'd heard out there so that readers could judge what was happening for themselves. By the time Rodriguez was hired the blog had quadrupled its base traffic and having a tax return my mother would not be terrified by was a distant possibility. At some point I stopped hedging about what I did and developed a spiel about how I was not homeless (CPM advertising plus donations plus text links plus t-shirts plus freelancing).
2. You enjoy some degree of recognition from the Sports Information Department. How big of a victory was it to develop an official relationship with the university itself, and what does it give the blog that it didn’t have prior to that recognition?
The way that worked was pretty weird. I'd met Bruce Madej, the SID, maybe once or twice in passing and he'd talked about getting me into the press box for a game or two, something I was and remain totally opposed to. I'm where I am now because I've never been in a pressbox, and while I won't turn into Drew Sharp the instant I cross the threshold I don't see much value in it for me except from an anthropological standpoint. (See: Brian is pwned by Tom Dienhart, which should make it clear that someone's got to do it but it's not this guy.)
But I'd been thinking about adding some actual reporting into the mix and thought Tim, who knew Madej from his days at WOLV, was a guy well positioned to bridge the gap between blog and reporting. Meanwhile, I was in-studio at WTKA as John Bacon and Knight fellow Richard Dietsch discussed the demise of the Ann Arbor News. Dietsch winked as he mischievously asked Madej point-blank if he'd give MGoBlog a credential, and Madej said "yes."
So we emailed back and forth a couple times and set up a meeting. I expected skepticism. Michigan had a reputation for being extremely old-fashioned about things. The reason GBW has a magazine is so they could get access. Internet sites were denied at the time they started up, and "The Fort" was internet shorthand for Schembechler Hall for a reason. So I'd mentally prepared some talking points to deal with whatever concerns they'd have.
There weren't any. They had a list of requirements they wanted any website to meet to get a credential, which they presented to me just because they wanted my input on it. And they said the first year Tim might have a little trouble getting into big games because the press box was small, but after that he'd be fine. And that was it.
So... I'd like to say MGoBlog knocked the doors down but the News going down and Greg Dooley's existence (Dooley gets along with everyone and is the kind of extrovert that defies blogger stereotypes I largely live up to) were more important.
As to what it gives the blog: there is the obvious content. As we've gotten more established we've gotten more interviews for Hail to the Victors and hopefully we'll start getting more for the blog itself. We're trying to get a field pass, which would be another step. But we're still trying to figure out what makes the most sense in a world where press conference transcripts are immediately available in four different places; the stuff Tim did last year for Friday Night Lights, which requires no access at all, has been way more valuable.
3. How does being Brian from MGoBlog change your gameday experience? Are you recognized when you walk through the hallowed gates into Michigan Stadium? And what’s the best part of being Brian from MGoBlog??
Increasingly, yes. I remember the first time it ever happened. It was after the 2007 Northwestern game. I was helping matters along by wearing my "Zoltan For Space Emperor" shirt and some random guy walked by and said "Brian!" and I was like "I don't know you!" and he was like "MGoBlog!" and I was like "dude." Then an hour later someone bought me a beer. It was at that moment I knew exactly how Kathy Griffin lives her day-to-day life.
Now it will happen a couple times whenever I go to a Michigan sporting event. If you have done this to me I have probably been awkward, but this is not your fault. I am an engineer. I remember when I got my first friend. It was in fifth grade and he was just screwing with me. You are not the problem.
As far as the best part about doing this whole thing, it's the aftermath of an important emotional event for the fanbase when I have written something I think helps people wrap their head around things. I much prefer this to be a good event but of late it's been helping people cope instead of consolidating their joy. I'm still pretty confused by what Jim Carty first diagnosed as a cult mentality around the site where people openly despair at my inevitable graduation to the big time -- I'm just this guy -- but what I understand in it resides in those columns.
4. When have you been most proud of MGoBlog? And, being a creative person myself, I’ll ask-- are you ever satisfied with it? What is the thing you like the least about what it has evolved into?
The way I answered the previous question answers the first bit of this one, but to be really specific the column I'd put on the gravestone is The Age of Miracles. Secondarily, I'm not sure which guy it was but it was probably MCalibur or Misopogon or the Mathlete (block Ms all, eh?) who posted the tipping-point diary where I felt I'd gathered this community around the blog and set the gates open and these guys had stepped forward with outstanding content that would probably not have existed without that "create content" link. That's the accumulation of a lot of effort, and a validation of the entire painful move off of blogger. Since then the diaries have been consistently inventive and useful and I've marveled at the ability of people who just care a whole lot to produce great stuff.
As to satisfaction, no, I have a list of a dozen things I'd like to get done that hardly shrinks. A couple are getting towards a checkoff, FWIW, including a mobile site and some more database-oriented sections of the blog. Even so, things keep getting added to the list and the site keeps looking more dated and Drupal 7 is coming out...
As far as the thing I like least about the site: as it's grown the message board continually approaches MLive or the worst parts about the premium boards. I've tried to erect barriers that would keep this down, and they've been somewhat successful, but when Doctor Saturday posts something that's a tiny bit wrong about Michigan and gets raked over the coals for it I feel I'm losing a battle. I simultaneously loathe and understand the term "mgoidiots"; people who deploy it are not that distinguishable from the people targeted but they are somewhat. I wanted to have this bit of the internet where people would have serious conversations and hilarious interactions without animosity and that didn't happen even if Steve Sharik gets frontpaged at Smart Football. It happens in bits, and that's still better than a lot of places but the same tedious learning about who needs to be ignored and who needs to be attended to happens. You can't fight entropy.
5. Is this your job for life? Or, should I say, would you ever consider selling and/or walking away from MGoBlog?
I really hope MGoBlog is my job for life as long as we start going to bowls on the regular in the near future. Insufficient emphasis. I desperately want MGoBlog to be my job until I retire. I've rarely been so attuned with a fictional character as when Sterling Cooper was trying to get Don Draper to sign a contract, and when he actually signed it and was immediately slapped in the face with it I felt it was cosmically justified. So... yeah. It will take a lot to do something else.
Never say never, but it is extremely unlikely I'd ever walk away or sell the site. I love what I do, I have job security, I am my own boss, and the revenue is on a path where I should be able to support a family. I can't imagine wanting to do something else.
At some point I will probably start disconnecting for longer periods of time during the summer -- since the blog started five years ago I've taken one two-week vacation, days here and there for the 4th and other one-off holidays, and that's it. I'd like to be able to wander around a foreign country for a while at some point before kids make that an impossibility. But do something else? Not likely.
Obviously, this is your livelihood. Can you describe a typical workday for you? And, as always, what do you like to do for fun on your own time?
I wake up at 9 (season) or 10 (offseason) or 11 (offseason after Troy Woolfolk explodes) and immediately start assembling whatever the noon-ish post is going to be. Sometimes I've already put something together (or Tim or Tom has or there's a diary worth a bump) and it goes up soon after I get up, but most of the time those are afternoon things. After that I scan twitter, message boards, and Bloglines, then move on to the next thing I need to do. That could be something immediate or working on another post for the afternoon or working on a longer-term project. Depending on how much outside help there is that day and how much I've gotten done, I knock off sometime between 3 and 5 and do stuff around the house or just surf the internet; after dinner I'll usually start writing some more stuff up. During the season big hunks of Monday and Tuesday go to UFRs. I stay up late and get a lot of work done between 10 and 2 AM.
There's a lot of playing it by ear; things tend to be ready when they're ready.
My main hobby turned into my job, so now I have scant answers to the second question. Now my main non-internet hobbies are playing dorky German board gamesand being terrible at soccer. You have no idea how bad. The best shot I've ever unleashed was directly at my own keeper.
If it makes you any better, I’m sure all of us are bad at dorky German board games. Before we move on, describe the perfect meal.
Roasted chicken. My fiancee makes it and the last few times we've dispensed with the sides and even the silverware. We just flip the thing upside down and promise each other we'll never film the carnage. It is so good. Learn to do this.
6. Can you explain why the sky is blue? Or, why are you a Michigan fan?
Heredity and everything else. The family has had season tickets since the mid-50s and there's even a legend that my grandfather ushered at Ferry Field that seems apocryphal given the age he would have been at the time. The legend exists, though, and that's what's important. I remember falling asleep during that Rose Bowl we lost to Washington as my dad got agitated and staying awake through the one where Tyrone Wheatley cut a blazing swath through the subsequent, Emtman-free edition of the Huskies.
When it came time to pick a college, I applied to Michigan and MIT. MIT said no, but I wasn't going there anyway. Seriously: they deploy the acronym "IHTFP*" everywhere. Also it would have cost triple what M did. So I went to Michigan, saw a national title as a freshman, graduated with a computer engineering degree in 2001 when the dot-com bubble was imploding, got a masters in the same thing because of the bubble, and have not actually left Ann Arbor since 1997. Also now my job is dependent on Michigan someday not being terrible.
So... yeah. Every possible reason that has ever existed.
*("I Hate This Fucking Place")
So you’re saying there’s more than one reason, then. Finally, who's your all-time favorite Wolverine?
All sports: Jed Ortmeyer. He sealed that during the infamous "Molly" game when he delivered two of the most crushing legal hits I've ever seen in the first ten minutes, and then put it in a hidden tomb when he and Eric Nystrom played a give-and-go for the winner against Denver the next night. Carl Hagelin's got a shot to beat him this year, though. We'll see.
In football I have to give the obvious answer: Mike Hart. This is not interesting but it is true. If I was going to try to be interesting I would go with David Harris for reasons described in the All Decade Team, but it's tough to have the same sort of visceral reaction to a linebacker that you do to a skill position player. Hart was physically inadequate for Division I football but did not care. He was the sort of football genius that makes the detailed observer both enthralled and incapable of communicating exactly why. So he was sort of art. And he never fumbled except inside the five against Florida and we still won that game.
Jason Avant is a close second. If David Molk stays healthy the next couple years he'll be up there. I am developing a severe bias towards players I think are great before anyone else does.
My plans for MGoProfile never included Brian, actually. I initially wanted to focus on the everyday joes that sit at the same counter as the rest of us and shovel the manna of MGoBlog down their throats with the same silverware as everyone else. Plus, I’ve dealt with Brian a bit now, and I know he’s not a glory hound. The blog has never been HEY LOOK AT ME I’M BRIAN AND THIS IS MY BLOG ABOUT SOME TEAM AND OH BTW I’M AWESOME K THX BYE. I really didn’t think he’d want any part in these profiles at all.
But after the ball started rolling, I’d started focusing on some of the staffers here such as F/A and Tim, and it seemed kind of wrong that we hadn’t profiled Brian himself. So I asked him subtly and he was open to the idea—I was actually a bit surprised in fact, and even admitted to him that I didn’t think he’d want to be included.
In the end, Brian said yes precisely because of what I discussed above. The blog is NOT about him, or his life, or his interests, or only what he thinks about something. We read about Michigan sports in ludicrous detail, and there’s little room for what Brian had for dinner last night or what he thinks of True Blood. So when the opportunity came to spotlight him in a profile, it really was something we don’t actually know much about. Plus the historical aspect of the blog that Brian can offer is absolutely one of a kind. Jon Voight, bitches. Jon Voight.
And so it is my pleasure to announce that this season of MGoProfile has officially concluded. It’s been a fun ride, and I hope you all have enjoyed getting to know some of our most colorful personalities as much as I have. There are plans already in motion to continue next offseason, sometime in the spring or so after the hoopla of a Big Ten championship season finally dies down. Hehe, see you then.
I’d also like to personally thank TomVH and his lightning quick web accountability. This series began almost before my eyes as an informal exchange between us; all told the entire concept and first entry was knocked out in probably ten or fifteen minutes. But it all snowballed from there. Couldn’t have done it without you, Tom.
Yes, the season is less than 10 days away, and the offseason is all but over. Finally, gloriously, it’s time to stop explaining what happened and predicting what will happen—and instead live the dream again. Our Wolverines are 0-0, and-- regardless of wingless helmets, imploding ankles, and Martell Webb’s rhinological profile-- we are free to cheer and hope and believe once again. Most likely this will be one of the most important years we will ever experience as a fan of Michigan football—and either way the history of the program will be forever changed by the 2010 season. We will live and die together, my brothers. (And sisters).
I will see you all on the other side. Go Blue.
It appears that the thinking of the B10 Office regarding The Game goes something like this:
"It would be a shame to have a setup where Michigan and Ohio State could not play each other for the Big 10 title. Besides, a potential Michigan-Ohio State Big 10 title game would have tremendous appeal to the networks when we're trying to sell the broadcast rights (not that we would ever let a thing like that drive our decision making . . . wink, wink).
So to make this a possibility, we'll put Michigan and Ohio State into separate divisions.
But this creates a new problem. It would be a bad thing if they played each other the last game of the season and then played immediately again in the Big 10 championship game. This could dilute the interest of the networks to whom we are trying to sell the broadcast rights (not that we would ever let a thing like that drive our decision making . . . wink, wink).
So we'll move The Game to earlier in the season so that there will be time for the networks to "cleanse their palettes" between the two games. Problem solved. We'll slip this past everybody by announcing it in drips and drabs in late August, and no one will be the wiser. Martini Time."
While it may seem like a tidy little solution to the Big 10 Office, many Michigan fans and college football fans in general are outraged. We believe The Game should be played the last game of the season, one shot. You have to go through the other team to advance. Win or lose, it's final. It's the cumulative end-point of the season, the crown jewel of "rivalry weekend".
We now have to hope against hope that the Big 10 Office will come to its senses and not let what happened to the epic Oklahoma-Nebraska and Miami-Florida State rivalries happen to the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry.
But if the Big 10 still insists on putting Michigan and Ohio State in separate divisions and not allowing them to play each other back-to-back in the regular season and the Big 10 championship game, there may be a way to do that that still preserves the essence and tradition of The Game:
- Play all of the traditional Big 10 rivalry games, including The Game, at the end of the Big 10 season the Saturday before Thanksgiving, just like they are played now.
- Schedule a non-conference game the Saturday after Thanksgiving, between the last Big 10 season game and the Big 10 championship game.
The non-conference game would be like that end of season Hawaii game that many of the Big 10 teams have played over the years, except now it would be for everybody.
There would be plenty of tomato cans available to schedule for the end of season non-conference slot, most of whom would have finished their own regular seasons and would welcome the extra paycheck. The two Big 10 championship game opponents can rest their first string and use this game to give their second/third string some reps. The non-Big 10 championship game teams can use the non-conference game to keep their team sharp for the bowls, avoiding a long layoff.
The significance and tradition of the Big 10 rivalry games would be preserved. They would still be played at the end of the Big 10 season on "rivalry weekend" the way they are now, and would still be the final word on the Big 10 standings. The non-conference games would have no bearing on the Big 10 standings or a slot in the Big 10 championship game.
This solution is not perfect of course. Many fans will not relish the idea of sitting in a cold stadium in late November to watch their team take on the seventh place MAC team. The networks would not exactly be scrambling to show these games either. Luckily for the Big 10, we have our own network to save the day. It can be an all-BTN overflow channel extravaganza day. The Big 10 would even get to keep all the TV money.
This is by no means preferable to the sensible solution of keeping Michigan and Ohio State in the same division and letting them brawl it out in The Game at the end of the season for the division crown and the right to go to the Big 10 championship.
If the Big 10 is adamant on putting Michigan and Ohio State in seperate divisions, then The Game should still be played as the last game of the season. There is no good reason to move it every year because of the possibility the teams might play each other consecutively a couple times a decade.
But if the Big 10 is hung up on Michigan and Ohio State never playing each other back to back and won't budge from this position, then a non-conference buffer game would be much more preferrable to moving The Game to the middle of the season. As a last ditch effort to keep The Game from becoming just “a game” it may be the best hope we’ve got.
So, MVictors has a good post about conference realignment and The Game: http://mvictors.com/?p=7960#idc-container
Craig Ross talks about the divisional title conditions as well. My 2 cents (AKA, everyone else is NUTs b/c the following is the most logical avenue of reasoning):
1) A simple question: Why is Michigan-Ohio St the greatest rivalry in sports? No really, think about specific reasons.....
OK, now is it really b/c it's played on Nov 22nd? Or in November? Or the end of the year? Can a date on the calendar define the importance of this game? Not really. The reason the Game is so big is simply b/c when the teams play, the BIG TEN TITLE always seems to be on the line. This is the crux of the rest of this post: Overwhelmingly often, the M-OSU winner definitively determined the BIG TEN CHAMPION. That is what made The Game, well.... THE GAME. Nothing more, nothing less. Not the weather or the date on calendar.
Based on the above, if both M and OSU were in the same division, THEY WOULD NEVER DEFINITIVELY PLAY FOR THE B10 TITLE. They would only play for the division. Hence, the game loses it's significance. The Game went from 'determining the B10 Champion' to 'determining the division winner.' By definition, this would be less important.
I therefore submit that, if you truly want to protect the importance of The Game, you MUST support M and OSU being placed in different divisions. Therefore, unlike the alternative, the opportunity to play for the B10 Title will still be available thus maintaining the sustainability of the importance of The Game. It will sustain it's own importance if it deserves to: if M and OSU are good enough to meet in the B10 title game on a regular basis. If they aren't good enough to do this, nothing can sustain The Game's importance.
Obvious point: We must play every year to avoid the Neb-OU situation of the recent past. Hence, the protected rivalry game.
Obvious point: playing a 2nd time in the Title game WOULD BE AWESOME!!!
Not-so-obvious point: Would it not benefit (from an on the field competitive viewpoint) both OSU and M to move The Game a week or two earlier to avoid having to play the 2 biggest games of the year in consecutive weeks? In addition, this may reduce the number of times when the divisions have already been determined prior to the last week of the season (thus diminishing the stake of The Game some years).
Finally, the MVictors post linked at the top discusses the inherent disadvantage M and OSU would have simply by virtue of having to play each other EVERY year in the cross divisional protected game. Craig Ross suggests a complicated point system to mitigate this disadvantage. I submit a simpler strategy for determining the divisional champions:
-- intra-divisional record determines the division champion.
-- overall B10 record is the 1st tiebreaker.
-- head to head in the 2nd tie breaker
moving head to head to the 1st tie breaker may be fine, but then makes overall record moot and essentially makes the cross divisional games worthless.
The End...... ?
Of all the Michigan season previews you read, this has a pretty good shot at being the nerdiest. I will be focusing the preview on the statistical contributions of the departed and the returning. The culmination will be a series of beautiful charts telling you just how many games Michigan is going to win this year (or at least how many they won in one of the thousands of simulations I ran). The key metric you need to know is PAN, Points Above Normal. Normal is technically the NCAA FBS average, but you could also think of it as BCS conference replacement level. A Normal team would generally place in the bottom 2-3 of any BCS conference in a given year or in the top 2-3 of a non-BCS conference in a given year. For a little more detail on how it works, there is a short primer at the end of the column.
On to the preview.
Tate Forcier took the majority of snaps last year and has the more robust data set from last year while Denard has shown vast improvement through spring and camp and is the rumored front-runner for the starting position. Here is what they did last year.
Forcier: Had a passing PAN of 37 points on 278 qualifying plays (QP). This was good for third in the Big 10 (behind Tolzien and Cousins) overall but was second behind Tolzien on a per play basis. Tate’s rushing PAN (which excludes sacks) was –5 on 90 carries, meaning in 2009 Tate was worth about 32 points above the average NCAA player, second only to Kirk Cousins of Michigan St in the Big 10 and ahead of the 27 points in 13 games posted by Terrelle Pryor.
Robinson: Very limited sample size, but with 27 QP Denard had a passing PAN of –1 point. His –.04 PAN per attempt would have ranked him second to last in the Big 10, ahead of only Ben Chappell at Indiana. There was little element of surprise when Robinson was on the field that the ball was staying on the ground. Despite that, Robinson posted a positive PAN (+1) on the season. At .01 PAN per play he was ninth in the conference of players with at least 50 QP and second among all quarterback on the ground, behind Terrelle Pryor’s .05.
Despite an unknown quarterback situation coming into the season, it reasons that a sophomore Forcier would exceed a freshman Forcier and if Robinson can beat him out, then the quarterback production from Michigan should be about the best in the Big 10 this season.
In the most wide open position battle on the team, Michigan is looking to replace departed seniors Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown. In injury limited time, Minor was still the 5th most valuable back in the Big 10 last year with over 6 PAN on only 95 QP. His .06 PAN per play was third in the Big 10 behind John Clay of Wisconsin and Jaycen Taylor of Purdue. The production of Brown will not be as difficult to replace. WIth 80 QP Brown had a –3 PAN for the season. Brown was more active in the passing game with 10 catches on the season.
Looking to fill the void will be two players who saw limited action last year.
Vincent Smith: Had 31 QP last year and a 0 PAN. Running backs tend to skew negative so a 0 PAN would have put him 10th in the Big 10 among qualifying backs.
Michael Shaw: 33 QP in 2009 and a –4 PAN. At –0.13 PAN per play, he would have been in the bottom quarter of Big 10 backs.
In limited time last year, Smith outperformed Shaw. With Smith missing the offseason due to injury and Shaw battling academic issues, it looks like several players will get their chance to prove themselves on the field.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
The good news is that almost everyone is back from last year. The bad news is that no one did much in 2009, Michigan did not have a single receiver in the top 15 for the season. Greg Mathews is lone departee and was second last year with 25 PAN (receiving PAN do not directly correspond to other PAN because there is no good way to offset the good plays, catches, with bad plays so all you end up with are the positive plays).
Roy Roundtree: Finished the year red hot out of the slot. His 27 PAN in the last four games of the season were more than any other Wolverine had for the full year. If he could have produced at that pace for all 11 FBS games last year, he would have been top 2 in the Big 10.
Martavious Odoms: Third on the team with a 21 PAN last season but looks to have lost out on the primary slot role due to Roundtree’s emergence.
Kevin Koger: Michigan’s main tight end was fourth in 2009 with a PAN of 16.
Junior Hemingway: Came out of the gates on fire with the team’s season high single game PAN of 11 against Western Michigan but only managed a 15 for the season.
Darryl Stonum: Provided more value as a kick returner than he did as receiver, his 2009 PAN was 9.
Based on his strong finish to last year, Roundtree is the only member of the receiving core who looks to have a strong role locked up. Whether it’s from a single individual or the group as a whole, Michigan’s wide receiver will need to do better than 2009’s 8th place ranking for receiver value.
So we lost one guy. He was OK. Brandon Graham exploits are well noted but just for the PAN refresher, defensive players are measured by the number of negative (for the offense) plays they make and their magnitude. Graham led all Big 10 players with 47 points taken away from the offense, a stat normally dominated by linebackers.
Ryan Van Bergen: Finished 12th in the Big 10 among D-lineman with 19 points taken on 25 plays made.
Mike Martin: Lacked the big play ability of some of his Big 10 counterparts with only 10 points taken away, but was second among all tackles with 30 plays made.
Despite losing Graham, the move to more three man lines and the strong performances by RVB and Mike Martin last year make this the most secure position group on the defense.
Michigan’s linebackers flat out did not make plays last year. Only Indiana and Illinois got less production from their linebackers. Michigan’s “best” linebacker was Jonas Mouton who came in 25th among Big 10 linebackers in points taken.
Jonas Mouton: led the group with 17 points taken on 34 plays.
Obi Ezeh: Right behind Mouton with 16 points taken on 35 plays.
Craig Roh: Would have been a top 25 defensive lineman in the conference last year and should see his production increase above last years 13 PT as he moves to more of a standup role.
This group has experience but a long history of mediocre performance. The hope is that the coaching consistency can help this group turn the corner but at this point Roh is only one who seems able be a positive difference maker.
Classified as a safety, Stevie Brown was the most productive defensive back in the Big 10 last year with 32 PT. Classified as a linebacker he was still top 10. Donovan Warren had only Stevie Brown and three other DB’s in front of him at 26 PT. Where the linebackers are a question because of limited production the secondary is a question because of limited bodies.
Jordan Kovacs: the lone returner that managed to crack the top 50 DB’s last year. The walk-on garnered 16 points taken on an impressive 30 plays made.
The only good thing about the secondary going into this season is that the expectations will be very low. Any success they can manage will likely be more than most fans are counting on.
One of the biggest challenges Michigan has in climbing the hill this year is their schedule. Based on my PAN projections, Michigan has the 22nd toughest schedule in the country and second toughest in the Big 10 behind Minnesota. Only Minnesota and Indiana have easier Big 10 schedules and that’s because they don’t get to play Indiana and Minnesota.
So where does this all net out? Here is Michigan’s team PAN since 2003 along with my 2010 projection.
As detailed in the comments of by wannabe Blogpoll, PAN projections are done using 2/3 historical performance (2003-2008) and 1/3 previous year performance. Based on previous years, this combination of program history and most recent performance yields the most accurate pre-season predictions.
So what does that mean for wins? Using all teams PAN predictions I ran a Monte Carlo simulation for the season and at the 6.6 PAN above, this is your win expectation chart for 2010.
Over a 50% chance of 7-8 wins, a 93% chance of bowl eligibility.
If this projection seems either too high or two low, I ran 3 additional simulations, one with Michigan’s PAN increased by 3, one decreased by 3 and one with performance at last year’s level.
At last year’s performance the chance of bowl eligibility drop to 56%. At the optimistic side, wins average about 9 with a 27% chance of 10+ wins.
*PAN is calculated by assigning every play a value based on how much the play helped or hurt the offense’s chances of scoring. Every down, distance and line of scrimmage combination is assigned an expected value, the average points scored across college football in that same situation. If a play increases the expected value, the respective teams and players are credited with the amount of increase.
All plays are then adjusted based on strength of opponent. Plays against weak opponents are penalized and downgraded while plays against strong opponents are bumped to reflect the degree of difficulty.
Only games against FBS (D1A) opponents, games against FCS (1AA) opponents are non-existent in any numbers used in this work.
Qualifying Plays (QP) are all plays in the first half and plays in the second half when the game is within two touchdowns. End of half run out the clock drives are also excluded.
Edit: Made this a Diary after a couple of kind requests. Lest my psyche be further questioned, I'm M-Pragmatist here...and I think M-Optimist is slightly bats(hit insane... like, asylum-worthy).
M-Optimist on the DL:
The D-Line will be the strength of the D, lead by Death Roh and Martin. Yeah we lost BG, but these two are beasts, and they return faster, stronger, bigger, badder or as I like to call it, barwisier. On top of that, Big Will is ready to step up, RVB is a quality vet, and three solid seniors provide depth. Depth makes up for the loss of BG.
M-Pragmatist on the DL:
For all the BG-love, the logic above makes him sound replaceable. Despite double and triple teams, BG still managed to make impact plays in every single game. He killed drives single-handedly and turned TDs into FGs. No one is replacing that. Roh and Martin are quality players but they’re not all-confrence caliber. Furthermore, without BG stealing attention and absorbing blocker's attentions, their effectiveness is going to be limited.
Campbell, for all his hype, has been completely ineffective. He’s only a true sophomore so of course it would be extremely premature to call him a bust. But, it's also extremely premature to assume he’ll be an impact player. The ho-hum upperclassmen remain ahead of him on the depth chart.
While the DL is probably the strength of the defense, it's likely taking a significant step back with the loss of someone of BG's caliber. The depth and returning experience is nice, but this is most likely an average B-10 defensive unit.
M-Optimist on LBs:
Ezeh and Mouton return for their senior year, when players typically have their best season. Moundros may be inexperienced, but he should be a good run-stuffing role player. Fitzgerald and Demens are coming on. With GERG coaching them and another year of experience, the LBs won’t be as bad as last year.
M-Pragmatist on LBs:
You forgot to mention Stevie Brown, arguably the 2nd best defender last year. Browns was a talent who has been extremely impressive in NFL camp. Replacing him is a position-switch red-shirt freshman. This is the biggest downgrade (after CB) on the defense and it’s consistently ignored or underplayed by M-Optimist. We had a talented, versatile, senior LB who is playing in the NFL…now we have a guy who played QB for most of high school and hasn’t played yet in college.
As Brian has noted, Moundros being a potential starter should set off alarm bells for the rumored improvement of Ezeh. Some guys just never get it. The ILBs should be better, this is true…but the loss of Stevie Brown is going to hurt this unit.
M-O on the Safeties:
There is finally some talent and depth back here. Gordon and Robinson are skilled. Kovacs and Emilien return with a year of experience. I know they’re young and they’ll make some mistakes, but these young guys will be better…it can’t be as bad as last year.
M-P on the Safeties:
Its true, probably won’t be as bad as Kovacs/Williams.were last year. But consider that last years corners were Woolfolk and Warren. This experienced duo allowed the safeties to take a little less responsibility. This season, the CB situation is a tragedy, and the safeties will be asked to do more.
One of the most experience-dependant positions on the field has almost none. Gordon and Robinson have not played. Kovacs is still a walk-on type with limited skill, even if he has a year of experience. Emilien still can’t beat anybody else out on the depth chart, where walk-ons remain on the fringe. To see such extreme inexperience and expect significant improvement is being willfully blind to history.
M-O on CBs:
Losing Woolfolk sucks but it won’t cost us as many games as we think. Floyd is better. Cullen and the other freshman are going to step it up.
M-P on the CBs:
Woolfolk probably won’t cost too many games, this is true. What many forget is that Woolfolk wasn’t exactly a lock-down CB to begin with: A 3-star talent who proved capable last year, but was far from all-conference. He was an excellent player only relative to the other choices. Furthermore, the Cullen hype is insane. Freshman CB, even the HOF-caliber guys we’ve had in the past, struggle as freshman.
I won’t go on. Its bad and we all know it. This unit alone can submarine whatever other gains you want to hope for from others.
M-O on continuity:
Yeah, yeah, there may be concerns on an individual basis, but the team the team the team. Another year in the system, Hopson is gone, and the 4-2-5-3-3-5 hybrid D will be an improvement. You’re only as good as your weakest link.
M-P on continuity:
You’re grasping at straws. Most other teams return with another year of experience in their defensive system with almost no upheaval. This is not an advantage for Michigan, its avoiding a major disadvantage. The shift in terminology and pseudo-shift in system is not an argument for improvement, no matter how many off-season fluff pieces you’ve read.
The weakest-link argument is highly suspect, but even if you buy it, the 2009 safety disaster is no worse than the 2010 CB tragedy. Outside of that positional weakness, the 2010 impact players aren’t nearly on the same level as BG, SB, DW, and TW.
M-O on luck:
Last year, we were a couple plays away against Iowa and MSU. And Illinois, ugh!...we had that game. Should have had 7 or 8 wins and this years offense is even better.
M-P on luck:
We also eked by ND and Indiana - a couple plays from 3 wins again…and this years defense is even worse. M's on field luck is neutral. Every fanbase thinks they're unlucky...except that private school in Indiana.
M-O on fate and talent:
You’re wrong…this just have to get better…they just do. Rich Rod knows what he’s doing and in year 3 things will be better.
M-P on fate and talent:
I hope you’re right. And on offense, I’m with you. But the D man, the D…I just don’t want you to scream for Rich Rod's head and call him and underachiever when you don’t get the 8 wins you expect. At least acknowledge that 5 wins isn’t an unreasonable prediction that only big-dumb-jerk-faced-dummies can have.
M-O on predicting the future:
But M-Caliber did a convincing analysis with regression maths and lots of sig figs and it says we’ll win 7 or 8 games easy.
M-P on predicting the future:
M-Caliber rules, but his model is not predictive for future seasons. He assumes the defense will be better overall (ypg) and also assumes the D will be way better at creating turnovers. I suspect this is wishful thinking. The turnover gap should be better via regressing to the mean, but this is still a below average D and once again we’ll have a first-year starter at QB. (The “if Denard throws INTs he’ll be on the bench” line is questionable. We know Tate will too.)
M-O on think-good-thoughts:
Man, why are you such a hater? I’m just trying to think positive. This will help the team. Good vibes matter!
M-P on think-good-thoughts:
Bo hated hippies.
Whatever, I say we're due for some good luck and we get 8 wins. What do you think, smartass?
6 wins, assuming we beat UConn. But I think we'll get completely embarrased in a couple of the rivalry games, which is going to spawn some serious unrest in the unreasonable realms of the fanbase. I actually think 5 is the rational prediction and that 6 or 7 is being an optimist...8 or 9 is just wishful thinking.