After returning back from the game last night, I preceded to watch the game tape of yesterday's 36-14 win over Cincinnati. I'm not going to do a detailed review and we will all wait for this week's UFR, but here are a few of my observations:

1.) Wilton Speight was actually pretty good yesterday and certainly better than against Florida. At the game I had the feeling that Speight was atrocious and that was certainly the thought of many other fans. But reviewing the film, he had only two blatant overthrows, both to DPJ. At the same time he delivered some bullets, the deep bomb to Crawford, the one on 4th down, the touchdown to Perry. Other throws that were incomplete were mostly tight coverage with no one really open, hard to blame him. Overall, his stat line was 17/29 with a few throwaways. He still needs to improve and have better consistency but in no way was he atrocious. I believe UFR will agree with me.

2.) Mike McCray was really, really bad. He has to be more hurt than we think he is. He looked slow, but even worse his head really wasn't in the game. There were two incompletions where McCray and the CB (one time Hill, the other Watson) miscommunicated and no one covered a receiver but the QB just missed the throw. That happened another time and it produced a first down. Twice McCray was asked to cover a speedy back running a route and twice he got burned. First on a wheel route for a 20 yard gain and the other where he was forced to hold the jersey on 3rd down, giving the Bearcats a fresh set of downs. And then there's the long QB keeper, where McCray bites completely on the RB in the read option, and doesn't cover the whole, letting Moore pick up a monster gain. 

3.) Nolan Ulizio had a much better game. Yes, this was Cincy and not Florida, and yes he did give up a sack and get an unsportsmanlike conduct flag, but as a whole he didn't blow nearly as many assignments and was pretty solid in run blocking. It was a nice step forward and should help build his confidence. 

Take the Fan Satisfaction Index Week 2 survey: https://goo.gl/forms/TM5nHn360mOTQ0E42

Not all victories are created equal. Coming off the high from beating Florida last week, beating Cincinnati 36-14 felt almost like a loss. The thrill of victory and agony of defeat are infinitely sensitive to a host of factors about Michigan, its opponent, and how the season is going.

This raises an interesting puzzle: How should we measure the satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) we feel after a game, or a season?

The most obvious metric is wins and losses. But as readers of this blog can probably all agree, all 9-win seasons are not created equal. A 9-win season with wins against MSU, ND, and OSU and a Big Ten Championship, for example, would feel a lot better than a 9-win season with losses to MSU and OSU and no championship. A season in which the team outperforms expectations certainly feels better than one in which the team underperforms. And a season that ends with a bowl victory rather than a loss is certainly more agreeable to think back on during the offseason. Clearly we need something that does a better job accounting for fact that some games matter more than others. In other words, we need to be able to more precisely measure the emotional impact of specific wins and losses.

One way to create a fan satisfaction index would be to make some assumptions about what kind of wins and losses feel particularly good or particularly bad, and then create some kind of point system. A win against a cupcake might be worth 5 points, while a win against a rival might be worth 50 points. A loss against a top-ranked foe might be worth -10 points, while a loss to an archrival at home might be worth -100 points.

This process might be a good way to go back and rank past seasons, but there is an even better way to measure satisfaction for the current season: just ask people!

Thus the Michigan Fan Satisfaction Index is born. The research methodology is straightforward: I will post a two question survey after every game asking fans how they felt about the game and how they are feeling about the season so far.

Then, each week I will post the results, discussing trends and trying to understand what’s driving the fan base. Assuming the project finds an audience, I expect the survey process to evolve some over time and feedback and suggestions are welcome. At the end of the season, for example, I will ask people to look back and tell me how they feel about each game – in order to see how feelings changed over time. And once the bowl game is over, I will field an end of season survey asking people to provide a final assessment of their satisfaction.

For now, thanks for reading and Go Blue!

Sorry for the delay friends - pulled a good double shift out of town yesterday and this is the first chance I've had to post. Hopefully you still find it helpful! We have a high pressure system right over the Great Lakes region. This gives us plenty of sun, but also gives us some cool mornings and nights, so grab the layers! Let's go blue! 

Tailgating

Brrr! Definitely a chilly start to the day! Lots of thermos cups out there this morning! Temps are running below normal so that gives you the right to complain (a little bit -  Marquette is at 32 this morning). Some shady spots are even starting off with a bit of frost here and there! Tailgating temps will run in the low 40s if you're out there early but will quickly warm with the sun. We'll be up to the low 50s by mid-morning with blue skies. On top of sunshine, the other good news is very light winds - they'll be out of the north around 5mph (just enough to rustle leaves) and we won't have to add in a wind chill.   

Kickoff

66 for the first kick! Not bad at all - it sounds cool, but we'll be plenty comfy while sitting in the sun. And we'll have a lot of that! As we get into the afternoon, UV levels could easily hit that moderate range so you may want to keep the hat on. Winds will shift just a tad to the NE at about 7-8mph, enough to keep the leaves rustling a bit.  

Halftime

Nearing 70 by the half with a few clouds here and there - still plenty of sunshine in store for us to end the game. Especially if you're sitting in the sun, you'll be warm! Winds will remain out of the NE at 10mph. 

Post-Game

Exiting the gates with that win, why not take advantage of the great Fall weather and celebrate out on the town?! You'll want the hoodie as temps will start to drop into the low 60s by dinner-time. Winds will be light, out of the NE, at 5-6mph, and they'll stay that way into the late-night. If you're staying out late, by 10pm we'll be looking at low 50s, and by that last call we're facing mid 40s. Eesh. Yeah you won't forget the hoodie on the stool this week! Go blue!

 

Christina Burkhart is the morning meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!

Here's an update for the stats nerd folks from last weekend...

----EYES ON NOTRE DAME:

In the all-time winning percentage race with Notre Dame, Michigan maintains a .0019 edge, .7305 to .7286 (or about 2.5 games; a loss for either of these schools lowers its percentage by about .0006; a win raises its percentage by about .0002).

Michigan of course maintains its 39-game margin in the wins race, 936 to 897.

----LAST WEEK, WHEN RANKED BY THE AP:

Michigan plays in a game involving two AP-ranked teams only a few times a year, so last weekend's game (#11 vs. #17)  was notable for that reason.

In the era of modern Michigan football (since Bo arrived in 1969):

Michigan is 22-4-0 (.846) when playing as the AP #11, one of Michigan's most fruitful rankings from the standpoint of winning percentage.  Last loss: October 15, 2011, at Michigan State 28-14.

Michigan is 9-1-1 (.864) when playing against the AP #17, which is Michigan's best percentage against any place in the rankings.  Last loss: October 9, 2010, Michigan State 34-17.

Michigan is 365-111-7 (.762) when playing as an AP-ranked team.

Michigan is 55-41-1 (.572) when playing a lower-ranked (but not unranked) team.

----THIS WEEK:

Michigan has moved up to AP #8 for the game against Cincinnati.

Since 1969 Michigan is 18-6-0 (.750) playing as the AP #8.  Last win: September 4, 2004, Miami (Ohio) 43-10.  Last loss: September 1, 2012, Alabama (in Dallas) 41-14.

 

 

Towards the end of last season, I started writing a (mostly) weekly diary relating to divisional races within the Power 5 conferences and the chances certain teams would end up in conference championship games (Example). I plan to repeat that process this season, but it's obviously not a useful exercise until we're about two thirds through the season.

In the meantime, I wanted to spend some time relating to interconference records instead of intraconference records. Ergo, behold the first installment of a weekly diary to extend through the non-conference season (and rebooted for bowl season), detailing how each of the conferences are fairing against external foes. It shall be called "Conference Pride" which is "partial satire" on those who would chant something such as, oh, I don't know, "SEC! SEC! SEC!" when their 7-5 team wins the Music City Bowl. 

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Too Long, Didn't Read (TL;DR)

• The ACC had a rough opening weekend, although it likely had the most difficult schedule from top to bottom of any of the major conferences. They avoided any egregious losses, but also didn't win any games they weren't expected to or any over teams that will be in the Top 25 come Week 2. Their 10-4 (2-4 P5) record was the second worst among the conferences and they gave up several opportunities for big wins (Georgia Tech, NC State).
• The Big Ten was the only major conference to avoid any bad losses (in fact, its losses were impressive with bottom-dwellers Purdue and Rutgers threatening Top 15 opponents) and notched two high profile wins. On the other hand, it's raw record isn't as impressive as the PAC 12 or SEC. Week 2 will be a pivotal one for the B1G, with 7/14 teams playing Power 5 opponents. 
• The Big 12 had an abysmal opening weekend despite having a fairly easy slate. They had the worst loss of any P5 school (Baylor) and didn't notch a single impressive victory. The conference seems poised to take further beatings in the next two weeks. 
• The PAC 12 was actually perfect in Week 1 overall and even against the P5; its sole loss came in Week 0 from Oregon State to Colorado State from the Mountain West. Yet, the conference did not beat a single ranked team, many of its contenders struggled in too close for comfort wins against inferior opponents (USC, Washington, etc.), and they were the only conference besides the Big 12 to have a member lose to a Group of 5 school. Look for us to find out more about the PAC 12 in the coming weeks. 
• The SEC posted a perfect 3-0 record against the ACC after losing their perch atop the college football world to the basketball-centric conference during the 2016 season. Yet, their two losses were both pretty brutal, for very different reasons, from big brand schools in each division (A&M and Florida). 

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ACC

Non-Conference Record: 10-4 (0.714); 2-4 (0.333) vs. Power 5

• vs. Big Ten: 1-0
• vs. Big 12: 1-0
• vs. PAC 12: 0-1
• vs. SEC: 0-3
• vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• #21 Virginia Tech 31, #22 West Virginia 24 (Baltimore, MD)
  • The Hokies notched the conference's only ranked win in Week 1 by prevailing over their long-dormant rivals, the West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big 12. It was a promising way to begin season 2 of the Justin Fuente era in Blacksburg as VT looks to repeat as ACC Coastal Champions. 

Bad Losses (Week 1):

• California 35, North Carolina 30 (Chapel Hill, NC)
  • Losing at home as a double digit favorite (line was -13.5 UNC) is a pretty brutal way to start the year for a basketball school that has suprisingly resided in the upper echelon of their football division for the past several years (Tar Heels came in 1st in the Coastal in 2015, 2nd in 2016 and 3rd in 2014). Especially considering the fact that this was against a brand new head coach kicking off a rebuilding season while 2,000 miles from home for a 9AM PT kickoff. 

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Big Ten

Non-Conference Record: 10-2 (0.833); 2-2 (0.500) vs. Power 5

• vs. ACC: 0-1 
• vs. Big 12: 1-0
• vs. PAC 12: 0-1
• vs. SEC: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• #11 Michigan 33, #17 Florida 17 (Arlington, TX)
  • We all know what happened in this one. Dominating win over the perennial SEC East Champion for the youngest team in football. 
• Maryland 51, #23 Texas 41 (Austin, TX)
  • Yes, Texas was grotesquely overrated. Yet, for a Maryland program that hadn't defeated a ranked foe since 2010, this was a monster road win. In addition, it's a big national perception boost for the conference to have one of its perennial bottom-feeders take down college football's premier brand ($$$) in their own house (as an 18.5 point underdog, nonetheless). The jury's still out on DJ's Terps 2017 potential, but I have a feeling they'll make the Big Ten East interesting before too long. 

Bad Losses (Week 1):

• None
  • The Big Ten's only losses were from its two worst teams over the past two seasons. Both were playing top 16 teams, both covered the spread by significant margins, both led at times and Purdue was extremely close to winning despite suffering #Columbus esque reffing. If anything, both losses were two of the most encouraging games from the conference this week. 

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Big 12

Non-Conference Record: 7-3 (0.700); 0-2 vs. Power 5 (0.000)

• vs. ACC: 0-1
• vs. Big Ten: 0-1
• vs. PAC 12: N/A
• vs. SEC: N/A
• vs. Non-Power 5: 7-1

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• None

Bad Losses (Week 1):

• Maryland 51, #23 Texas 41 (Austin, TX)
  • Already discussed this one from the victors' angle; from the losers', it's unabashedly brutal. Particularly for a fanbase with such unrealstic expectations. Their new, exceedingly highly paid head coach, walked into DRK stadium as an annointed savior and left, less than four hours later, to trash being rained onto the field by fans. Yikes. 
• Liberty 48, Baylor 45 (Waco, TX)
  • The Baylor Bears also welcomed a new head coach home with a mind-boggling defeat. Although the circumstances were dolorous to begin with after the widespread sexual assualt scandal, losing to an FCS team that went a measely 6-5 in 2016 is not going to make things any easier for this shamed program. 

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PAC 12

Non-Conference Record: 12-1 (0.923); 3-0 vs. Power 5 (1.000)

• vs. ACC: 1-0
• vs. Big Ten: 1-0
• vs. Big 12: N/A
• vs. SEC: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 9-1

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• UCLA 45, Texas A&M 44 (Pasadena, CA)
  • 34 point comeback against an SEC West team? Second biggest comeback of all time in college football and biggest in school history? Sounds marquee to me. 
• California 35, North Carolina 30 (Chapel Hill, NC)
  • The type of win Tom Herman wishes he had. What a fantastic start for Justin Wilcox as he begins his headcoaching career. 

Bad Losses (Week 1):

• Colorado State 58, Oregon State 27 (Fort Collins, CO)
  • Yes, Oregon State has consistently been the worst team in the PAC 12. Yes, Colorado State is consistently one of the more solid teams in the Group of 5. Still, a 31 point defeat for a Power 5 school at the hands of a Group of 5 school is pretty rough. Particularly for Gary Andersen, who nonsensically ditched the Badgers for the Beavers, as he enters Year 3 in Corvallis. 

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SEC

Non-Conference Record: 12-2 (0.857); 4-2 vs. Power 5 (0.667)

• vs. ACC: 3-0 
• vs. Big Ten: 0-1
• vs. Big 12: N/A
• vs. PAC 12: 0-1
• vs. Independents: 1-0
• vs. Non-Power 5: 8-0 

Marquee Wins (Week 1):

• #1 Alabama 24, #3 Florida State 7 (Atlanta, GA)
  • Despite this game being slightly closer than the score indicates, and Saban & Co. benefiting from a few "lucky" turnovers/dubious calls, Bama is still solidly #1 and The Tide rolls on. When will teams finally start refusing to play Alabama in neutral site season openers? 
• #13 LSU 27, BYU 0 (New Orleans, LA)
  • Although a Tigers' win is not at all surprising and BYU looks to be nothing to write home about, LSU looked very balanced in all three phases of the game. Plus, a Power 5 shutout is always a nice resume boost. 

Bad Losses (Week 1):

• UCLA 45, Texas A&M 44 (Pasadena, CA)
  • Sumlin decided to play out the script of a typical Aggie season within the confines of a single game (impressive start garnering national praise followed by a sudden, staggering plummet into despair). I'm surprised they didn't Lane Kiffin him on the tarmac of LAX. 
• #11 Michigan 33, #17 Florida 17 (Arlington, TX)
  • It's not so much that Florida lost as much as it is their offense only scored 3 points. Without the two pick 6s, this would've been an absolute blowout and true Gator fans are well aware of that. Not a good sign for Year 3 with an offensively based coach. 

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Week 1 Power Rankings

T-1st Big Ten, SEC

3rd PAC 12

4th ACC

5th Big 12

The Nojima Rise began their regular season with a resounding win over the Bulls football club, 84-0. Devin Gardner threw for three touchdowns, and ran for three more.

Naoki Arai ran back the opening kickoff for Nojima, and the Rise scored touchdowns on every possesion except for an interception of Gardner on their second series.

With the lopsided nature of the game, the three Michigan Wolverine alumni saw intermittent action. Mario Ojemudia (wearing #53) had three tackles, including a fumble recovery, while Sione Houma (#39) picked up 9 yards on four carries.

Devin Gardner (again wearing #98), seems to be feeling comfortable in his second year in Japan, as he completed 7 of 10 passed for 141 yards and three TDs and one INT, and also picked up 27 yards on five carries running the ball.

Gardner only played in the first half, as the Rise led 56-0 at halftime. He has taken on the role of training his two backup QBs by "trying to create some chaos in practice, so they don't get so rattled in games."

Gardner said he enjoyed the the chance to play live, "It was good to get our feet wet, because I hadn't been hit at all since spring," and was glad to see the start of the regular season. He said Sione and Mario would probably prefer to have played a little stiffer competition. They'll certainly get that chance in their next game on September 17th, when they take on perennial powerhouse Obic Seaguls.

With the time difference and a game scheduled that afternoon, they were only able to catch the second half (lucky them!) of the Michigan win over Florida, but they were quite pleased with the result and the directions both Michigan and their own team seem to be headed.