Diaries

(Bill Rapai)  Tony Calderone provided the finishing, tonight

OFFENSE

• FIRST:  So...Michigan tallied a 6(3).  That's not very good.  In fact, its pretty bad.  It didn't seem as bad during live play because Michigan was able to create a few nice looks on both their power play and penalty kill.  But six even strength attempts, man.  That's about it.
   
• SECOND: Michigan's offense was a little bit better in the second period.  A little bit.  They generated 12 even strength attempts with three coming from the HP.  Unfortunately, a lot of their looks were from rather poor angles or from quite a distance.  Their goal was a Calderone snipe on a 2v2 rush that he let go from the top of the circle.  It was well-placed...but probably could/should have been saved.  More chances from the slot, please!  Lost in the numbers is Will Lockwood.  He's made some supremely outstanding individual plays.  He's worth the price of admission.
   
• THIRD: Michigan took 14 even strength attempts in the third period.  They got into the HP for 4 of those 14 chances.  Again, that's not the best.  Most of their attempts came from quite a distance or a poor angle.  Against a high pucl possession team, though, looks at the net seem to be at a premium, though.  They did manage to take advantage of their quality chances, though.  Tony Calderone came in on a 2v1 and ripped a flare over Jones's shoulder to tie the game.  Brendan Warren hustled and outskated a PSU defenseman on a free-for-all and attempted to cross the puck through the crease to a waiting James Sanchez, but the Nittany Lion defenseman broke up the pass with his stick...and it slid right through Jones to give Michigan the lead.  Sanchez would have had a tap-in from a few feet out if he doesn't deflect it, though.  Very few teams are going to out-skate and out-possess PSU, so the way to beat them is to take advantage of your rushes and opportunities when they give them to you.  Michigan did just that, tonight.

 

DEFENSE

• FIRST:  There has yet to be a shot that a Penn State player has decided to pass up.  They will literally shoot from almost anywhere at anytime.  That's how you end up with even strength 22 attempts.  Michigan only allowed three of those to come from the HP, though.  So, my hottaeks say that Penn State just shot from anywhere inside th blue line.  This period was probably more even than the stats say...at least in terms of quality looks.  The PSU goal came with under five seconds left in the period as Kris Myllari heaved a puck at the net (because PSU shot) and it floated above Lavigne's blocker.  Probably not on the defense, as much as Lavigne...but you just cannot surrender goals with just seconds left in a period.  I would say that was borderline acceptable defensive period...until the last few seconds.
   
• SECOND: Michigan constrained the trigger-happy Nittany Lions to only 15 even strength attempts...with 7 coming from the HP.  It was odd, though, that almost all seven HP attempts were literally on the edge of my drawn HP shape.  So, nothing from the slot, just the very fringes.  PSU shooting 15 times is actually probably on their lower end...and giving up nothing TOO Grade A seems like a win.  The goal was another fling from the boards that slipped through Lavigne's arm.  That's not on the defense.  
   
• THIRD: Looking back at the first couple periods, Michigan limited PSU's quality chances.  They gave up a ton of looks but not many great ones.  In the third, Penn State was able to conjure up 26 (!!) attempts on net in even strength...but again, they only got 6 from the HP.  I'm going out on a limb and say that Michigan's defense was actually good, tonight.  They did surrender a 63(16), which seems like a lot.  However, due to the nature of PSU's offensive gameplan, you're just going to give up attempts.  They seem to shoot just for the sake of shooting.  To keep them to around 25% of their shots from HP, though?  I think Michigan can live with that...especially with Michigan's goaltending being its strength.  Its not fun to watch, per se...but when you have great netminding and limited offense, packing in the defenders and finishing your limited offensive chances is your best bet.  Oh geez...we're Michigan State.  :(

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

• FIRST: Michigan drew one power play in the first period and looked very dangerous.  They created about 3-4 really good looks at the net and hit the post.  Not having the puck much doesn't allow you to draw many penalties, so the Wolverines are going to have to make them count, tonight.  Michigan took two penalties and actually looked better offensively than Penn State did on their first.  The Nittany Lions threatened a lot more on their second and Lavigne made a few outstanding saves to help kill of that PSU man advantage.
   
• SECOND:  Each team had a power play in the second period and both ended the same way: with just as many chances for the PK as the PP.  Odd.  I would not have expected that from either of these teams.  
   
• THIRD: Michigan did not draw a penalty and took one penalty in the third period.  Penn State had a couple decent looks, but nothing overwhelming.  Michigan's penalty kill stoned four PSU advantages, tonight, and didn't really give up that many good looks...which is refreshing.  That has not been the case, lately.

 

(James Coller) I'M BATMAN

GOALTENDING

• FIRST: Hayden Lavigne started tonight.  He played extremely well through the first 19 minutes and 50 seconds, stopping 13 shots on as many attempts.  Unfortunately, a late chuck from the point/boards snuck over his blocker.  Perhaps he was screened?  Tough to tell.  Either way, I think he's going to want that one back.  Before that, though...Lavigne was fantatsic, including multiple stuffs from the low slot during some multiple skater scrums right in front of him.  His positioning was very, very good, as well.
   
• SECOND: Lavigne, again, had a similar period to the first.  He made a few fantastic saves and kept Michigan in a tightly played game.  The goal he gave us was another head-scratcher.  The puck was thrown from the point/boards (again) and just seemed to leak through his blocker side arm.  He seemed to be in the right spot, but...the puck just got through.  Screen?  Maybe.  But...it also seemed kinda soft, even on replay.  These couple of goals have been uncharacteristic of him...especially given how he's played the rest of the time.
   
• THIRD: Lavigne was great, again, saving all 13 shots he faced in the third.  And...no fluky fluff goals!  I've commented on his positioning before, but I really thought he was in the right places and saw the game develop in front of him very well, tonight.  He had those two hiccups, but they were not for lack of being in the correct spot.  I truly am thinking, now, that Steve Shields is the catalyst behind this goaltending resurgence.  He transformed Racine into a dependable college goalie, and he's also pushing all three of Michigan's netminders to the top of their games.  The Wolverines truly are getting elite play from all of their goalies.  Hayden Lavigne is the latest piece of evidence. 

 

ODD MAN RUSHES

• FIRST: Michigan gave up 2 OMRs in the first period.  The first came early on and the got lucky as the the shooter broke his stick and whiffed on the pass.  The second was a tremendous break-out pass that lead to a 2v1.  The shot was high and wide, but it was a great chance.  M cannot skate end-to-end with PSU.
   
• SECOND: I saw no OMRs in the 2nd. Yay!
   
• THIRD: Nothing.  Yay!  Hottaek: Michigan's defense got better as the game progressed.

 

FINAL CORSI SCORE

I had: Penn State 63(16), Michigan 32(10)

www.collegehockeynews.com had: Penn State 64, Michigan 31

[Bryan Fuller – MGoBlog]

With the unfortunate news that Derrick Walton didn’t make First-Team All-Conference, I decided that I should jot down some thoughts on the best players in the Big Ten this season. While I leaned on a lot of data to justify these picks, I also have probably watched way more Big Ten basketball than the average person should, so I’m pretty well acquainted with the impact and style of these respective players. Instead of naming All-Big Ten “teams” – which inherently places a huge gap between the fifth- and sixth-best players in the league – I’ll rank the top ten.

10.) Nate Mason – Minnesota

Instead of Walton, Minnesota’s Nate Mason was named First-Team All-Big Ten. Mason’s team finished a game ahead of the Wolverines in the conference standings, and he had better counting stats than Walton did (15.5 points and 5.1 assists per game to Walton’s 14.5 and 4.5); Mason was markedly less efficient as he shouldered the load for the Gophers’ inelegant offense. Aside from impressive assist and turnover rates, Mason’s statistical profile isn’t as impressive. Shooting splits of 39 / 39 / 80 (2P% / 3P% / FT%) aren’t bad, but he did hoist more than his fair share of poor mid-range jumpers and drives into too much traffic, which sunk his eFG% to just 44.9.

Mason deserves credit for his role in helping bring together Minnesota’s new players and being the best* player on a team that finished top four in the Big Ten – one that will be headed to the NCAA Tournament. Aside from Northwestern’s historic bid, the Gophers are one of the biggest storylines in the conference: they were 8-23 last season and sit at 23-8 right now. While Mason was one of the better point guards in the league (and made this list instead of Bryant McIntosh, Tai Webster, and others), his middling efficiency prevents him for ranking more highly.

*Shot-blocking menace Reggie Lynch might be better, but plays <2/3rds as much of the time as Mason does, which limits his impact.

9.) Vince Edwards – Purdue

A player that’s often forgotten about because of his gargantuan teammates, Vince Edwards was quietly one of the biggest reasons for Purdue’s success this season. With Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas often rotating at center, Edwards was able to slide from the three to a more natural four spot. It paid dividends; the versatile wing scored 12.3 points per game, led the team in assist rate, and shot 42% from behind the three-point line. Edwards’s impact as a secondary threat on the offensive glass also complemented the big men well.

The Big Ten champs lean most heavily on Swanigan, of course, but Edwards has had a considerable influence. In the Boilermakers’ last game against Northwestern, Edwards scored an efficient 25 points and added 5 rebounds and 4 assists, helping Purdue to a narrow win. While most of the players on this list are forced to create their own shots or generate offense for others, Edwards doesn’t necessarily have those responsibilities. As a consequence, he’s one of the most efficient players in the league, finishing third in offensive rating for players in Big Ten play with a usage rate over 20%.

[rest of the list after the JUMP]

Previously:

February 2007

 

March 1 - Thursday

Stewart Mandel wrote a piece about how Troy Smith is not getting enough respect from NFL scouts; after all, he won the Heisman.

As one AFC personnel director told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "He's six feet tall, he's not a super fast guy and he's not super athletic. ... I don't think he's horrible. He's just a guy."

These are all reasonable criticisms.

See what I'm saying? How can you not admire a guy who's short, slow and unathletic yet managed to win the most prestigious award in college football?

Jason White.

It's like someone who can't act winning an Oscar.

Charlie Ward.

Or someone who can't sing winning American Idol.

Eric Crouch.

Unverified Voracity Runs a 3.2. USC recruit Brandon Jennings is making fun of ‘M’ commit Alex Legion for going to Michigan.

March 2 - Friday

A closer look at scholarship numbers by conference that Brian and EDSBS came up with a few weeks ago. Specifically, the meaning of the advantage that the  SEC has.

Is this scholarship gap necessarily a sign of poor moral fiber? Not necessarily. There are two different arguments getting conflated into one here:

1. SEC classes are overrated on Signing Day and during the media blitz that follows because their increased attrition rate -- something the numbers show is indisputable -- allows them to sign a bunch more players who will never make an on-field contribution.

2. The SEC doesn't care about football people. [/Kanye]

Argument #1, as noted, can be accepted as a given. Argument #2 is murkier and requires us to consider...

March 5 - Monday

Recruiting Board Update. Jonas Gray isn’t looking like a lock to ND any more and there could be some mutual interest with ‘M’.

The basketball team lost its last game, and the writing is on the wall for Amaker.

But whether or not Tommy Amaker is a good coach or not is no longer all that relevant -- though for the record all available evidence indicates they he is not. He has had six years to produce a basketball team that fans are capable of watching for more than two minutes at a time without screaming something profane and punting the cat into the next room. This he has not done, and he must be fired, even if none of what's transpired over his tenure is actually his fault.

March 6 - Tuesday

Pairwise update and things are looking up for the hockey team.

Unverified Voracity is Confused and Thrilled by YouTube with lots of ‘M’ related clips. The only one  that still works is  of Jack Johnson taking off a goalie’s helmet with a slapshot.

March 7 - Wednesday

PSA that more posting will be delayed.

JMFJ photoshop collection.

March 8 - Thursday

After switching to zone blocking before the ‘06 season, the football team found it difficult to convert on third and short.

March 9 - Friday

Liveblog of Big Ten tournament game against Ohio St.  The basketball team loses again.

If you met Greg Oden on the street, how old would you think he is? Like... 800, right? You can't be that enormous and craggy without having hit your eighth century. OSU alley-oop.

I Call Him Mini Voracity with a working video of The Victors done on beer bottles.

March 11 - Sunday

Hockey update. Michigan is firmly in the tournament and might get as high as a 5 seed.

March 12 - Monday

Third down statistics from the ‘06 season. Links to charts no longer work.

March 13 - Tuesday

Unverified Voracity is Also Emo. Lester Abram says the basketball team won’t try to lose on purpose. Amaker says a lot of people want to trade places with them to be in the NIT.

Complete list of noun phrases willing to trade places with the Michigan basketball program:

• Penn State

• Northwestern

• anyone rushing puck against JMFJ

• Lemmiwinks

NIT Liveblog with a single remark.

March 14 - Wednesday

Michigan beat Utah St. which is the worst case scenario. Amaker’s tenure is extended.

Does Michigan's performance in something that doesn't exist have an impact on Amaker's future? The implication is that it does, and therefore the implication is that a good performance can help Amaker's case. Furthermore, it implies that there is an Amaker case at all. There is no case. Michigan can win the entire freakin' Not Extant Tournament and it will matter not one bit.

Spring Football Presser. Adrian Arrington, Carson Butler, and Eugene Germany have been in trouble and are currently suspended. Carlos Brown is switching to CB, and Brandon Graham will play inside.

March 15 - Thursday

Brian looks at Ben Wallace’s departure and how it has affected the Pistons’ 06-07 record. (In case you didn’t realized, Detroit Piston and Edmonton Oiler posts were a thing back in this era of the blog.) His conclusion is that Wallace’s replacement of Chris Webber, Nazr Mohammed, and Jason Maxiell send their opponents to the line more often. Otherwise, production hasn’t fallen off.

March 16 - Friday

Recruiting Board Update. Added names of note: Kurt Wermers and Latavius Murray. ‘M’ leads for Daryl Stonum and Sam McGuffie.

March 17 - Saturday

Amaker has been fired. It’s not mentioned, but the basketball team lost to Florida St. on Thursday night.

Final Pairwise.

March 18 - Sunday

Amaker Voracity with lots of reaction, but not a whole lot of substance yet on where things will go from here. Terry Foster says Tom Crean would be a good option.

Hockey gets the Denver bracket instead of the GR bracket. Brian swears a lot.

March 19 - Monday

Coaching Profiles: Mid Majors looking at Reggie Theus, Todd Lickliter, Chris Lowery, Greg Marshall, and Karl Hobbs but Sean Miller is a no.

Coaching Profiles: Name Guys  looking at Mike Montgomery, Tubby Smith, Lon Kruger, and John Beilein. About Beilein:

Buyout is prohibitive and the total outlay in that situation is approaching a range in which Montgomery or Smith might perk up. There will be -- already has been -- a lot of talk about him, but I don't see it happening.

Coaching Profiles: Absentminded Edition looking at Sean Miller.

March 20 - Tuesday

Unverified Voracity Swoons for Chris Lowery. Internet says the top three candidates are Lowery, Miller, and Beilein. Lots more coaching stuff included.

March 21 - Wednesday

MGoBlog moves to a new host site, and for the first time there are a significant number of viewable comments.

Unverified Voracity is so Over Chris Lowery with a closer look at John Beilein.  

Carson Butler and Chris Richards have been arraigned for beating up another student. Probably the end for both.

The hockey game will be on tape delay on local Comcast.

And...Eugene Germany is in court for Marijuana. Probably not a big deal.

There’s a sale in the MGoBlog store. Buy shirts.

March 22 - Thursday

Apparently, the issue with Germany was more serious. He’s off the team.

Recruiting Board Update. Dann O’Neill committed last weekend.

Tubby Smith is heading to Minnesota. It’s unknown what this will do to the coaching landscape now that Kentucky is open too.

March 23 - Friday

Preview of hockey game against North Dakota.

March 24 - Saturday

Germany, Richards, and Butler are official out of the program. The biggest loss is Butler. TE is left with Mike Massey and Chris McLaurin and only freshman Vince Helmuth at FB. 2008 would have been rough no matter who was the coach.

I am leery about the possibility that our third-and-short conversions get even worse next year.

March 25 - Sunday

Michigan hockey lost, and Jack Johnson is moving on.

March 26 - Monday

Jason Forcier is transferring to Stanford. Brian says Lloyd is not happy about it.  

Blog changes update.

Unverified Voracity is Husky Proud (Or Something). The coaching search continues. Calipari is mentioned, but how shady do we want to be?

*(an MGoBlog created measuring stick for coaching corruption. Not actually headed by Huggins:

11: Dave Bliss (yes, this one goes to 11)

10: Tarkanian -- full on cheaty cheaty all the time

9: Jim Harrick -- a consistent pattern of malfeasance that includes academic fraud

8: Clem Haskins -- Harrick except not slimy enough to get away with it for quite as long

7: Huggins -- as skeezy as you can be and still have a job

6: Steve Fisher -- classic don't ask, don't tell

5: Billy Donovan -- you just KNOW there's something fishy but can't actually prove it.

4: Kelvin Sampson -- persistent minor flouting of NCAA regulations to harrass recruits for personal aggrandizement

3: Rick Majerus -- persistent minor flouting of NCAA regulations because he thinks they're stupid

2: Izzo -- basically squeaky clean, will occasionally take flyers on dodgy characters

1: Amaker -- ick

0: Whoever the current sacrificial lamb at Northwestern is.)

 

March 27 - Tuesday

Hockey Postmortem.

For two years Michigan has been the same team, a top heavy array of scorers with prone to stupid faith-shattering breakdowns and shaky goaltending. This has been good for not much: first-round exits in the NCAA tournament and watching other teams raise CCHA and GLI banners. In a sense, the departure of the defensemen and TJ is a relief. The team next year might be terrible. It might be fantastic. But it will definitely be different.

Banner Contest.

March 28 - Wednesday

Coaching Search Update. Beilein seems to be the guy simply because no news has come out and he’s still in the NIT, so no contact can be made for another couple of days. Bruce Pearl says he’s not interested, and John Calipari is rumored to have approached ‘M’ but was turned down. Also interesting that Beilein nearly went to NC State the year before, but the deal fell through  at the last minute.

A closer look at Beilein, refuting arguments from other bloggers, specifically about his offense and his ability to recruit.

T. J. Hensick is not a Hobey finalist, despite leading the nation in scoring.

March 29 - Thursday

Beilein! Beilein! Beilein! (Unverified Voracity). Rosenberg says Beilein isn’t just a candidate, he is the candidate.

Recruiting Board Update. Not much of interest ten years later. One name of note is J.B. Shugarts, but he has named OSU and LSU as his leaders.

March 30 - Friday

All Quiet on the West Va Front. Nothing much new. Top three seems to be Beilein, Chris Lowery, and Kevin Stallings.

Shirt sale still ongoing.

March 31 - Saturday

Lots of nitty gritty on a potential Beilein buyout situation.  

West Virginia message boards are saying that Beilein is gone.

1:02 PM today. "creamer14" posts this:

Vernon's right, JB gone - creamer14 3/31 1:02 PM (show all) Views 2403

Message board freaks out like whoah. Scout WVU board picks up on it and gives an indications of this guy's rep:

Saw that too - coming from a very solid poster as well. This is the same guy who gave the scoop on Coach Rod staying, ND verballing, WR coach hiring, the initial hiring of Ron West. This guy definitely has an 'in' with the athletic department.

(Patrick Barron) Not your fault, tonight, Hayden

OFFENSE

• FIRST: It was an odd period for even strength offense.  The first half of the period was alternating team penalties, so Michigan's best looks definitely came on the man advantage.  They ended up with an 8(1) in even strength.  That's not great, but it does come with a bit of an asterisk.  Still, they're going to need to get better looks (and probably more of them) if they're going to beat Schierhorn.  Marody did have a goal waved off and he bumped Schierhorn back into his net.  Worth a shot, I guess.
   
• SECOND: A very different period structure sees Michigan tally a 30(8) in the attacking end.  They did generate quite a few nice scoring chances but were only able to sneak one by Schierhorn.  Tony Calderone had multiple very good looks and finally scored  after Marody created some space in the high circle and slid the puck to him alone in the slot.They're still only getting 26% of the attempts from the HP, though.  Minnestoa's defense has been better, tonight, and Schierhorn has looked good, as well.
   
• THIRD: Michigan had a bit of an uptick in the third period, generating a few better looks, including a couple of posts.  Minnesota was content to sit back and not get caught up ice, given their two goal lead...but Michigan couldn't take advantage of their time in the attacking end. They did have 21 even strength attempts with 8 coming from the HP.  Given the game situations, though, I do not think this accurately portrayed how the game went...with most of Michigan's better looks coming in desperation time.  They finished with a 59(17) that resulted in a 26% from the HP.  That's not good enough...but Minnesota's defense played very well, too.

 

DEFENSE

• FIRST: In a period with five stand-alone penalties, Minnesota was still able to generate a 17(6)...which is very good for only a half of period played at even strength.  That's not great for Michigan's defense.  Lavigne was able to bail them out a few times but he was beaten once, as Michigan left Pitlick alone in the slot.  Not a great period for the defense, but we've come to expect as much.
   
• SECOND: Michigan gave up a 33(13) in the second period.  That's a 40% clip from the HP.  That's just too high at that volume for a team of Minnesota's caliber.  The first goal was a nice one-timer from the upper circle.  That was just a nice play by the offense. The shooter was even decently marked.  The second goal was an embarassment, though.  Multiple shots came from all angles around Lavigne, as no Michigan skater moved their feet in an attempt to get out to any of Minnesota's multiple shooters.  Finally Lavigne wasn't able to see one of them and it was 3-0.  If you're literally going to stand around in the defensive zone, a goal is all but guaranteed.  Ugh.
   
• THIRD: Michigan was better, only giving up an 11(4).  However, this is an incomplete because Minnesota took their foot off the gas half way into the third and just bled the game out.  I don't have anything else relevant to say regarding this.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

• FIRST: All of the penalties.  Michigan had three opportunities.  They had a golden chance when Marody and Calderone found themselves alone in the slot and Calderone missed a wide open net.  Michigan was able to generate a few more looks but nothing with that high of a percentage of finishing.  Minnesota had two power plays and looked a little more dangerous than Michigan.  They moved the puck well and got a few nice chances, but Lavigne denied all of them.  The first half of the period was mostly alternating penalties.  
   
• SECOND: There were no second period power plays for either team.
   
• THIRD: Michigan did not draw a third period penalty.  Minnesota had a power play off a too many men penalty against Michigan. They didn't really try to do a whole lot, being up a couple goals.  Special teams were not a factor tonight, after the first ten minutes of the game.

 

GOALTENDING

• FIRST: Hayden Lavigne started in net for the first time since the MSU series. He faced 15 shots in the first period and looked solid.  His rebound control was not the greatest, but he positioned himself well and bailed Michigan out of multiple situations when attackers got into the slot and the front of the crease.  I do not put the goal on him as Pitlick crashed down into the slot, unchecked, and was able to rifle a shot over Lavigne.  Good shooting percentage from that spot.  Lavigne with 14 saves, though.
   
• SECOND: I thought Lavigne had another solid period.  He gave up two more goals but the first was a one-timer fron the top of the circle.  I could not tell if he was screened or not, but it was a good pass and quick shot.  He probably could have been marked a little tighter, but Bristedt did not have as much room as Pitlick did in the first.  The second goal was on the defense as consecutive shots came from all angles before one snuck past Lavigne.  No Michigan skater moved very far at all during that flurry. The fact that Lavigne was able to deny the first few was impressive. His rebound control has been shaky, tonight, though.  Lavigne has 28 saves on 31 shots, so far.
   
• THIRD: Another good performance from a Michigan goalie.  Lavigne was not Nagelvoort-hot, but he gave up fewer that he probably should have given the chances that Minnesota got.  I've asked a handful of people who the best goalie on this team is and I've gotten different answers from everyone.  That's a great thing.  If nothing else, it says a lot about Steve Shields, Michigan's goaltending coach.  I'm very comfortable with any of Michigan's goalies in net.  In fact, I'm not completely against trying this theory by throwing Chad Catt between the pipes, next weekend.

 

ODD MAN RUSHES

• FIRST: Michigan gave up one OMR in the first period.  It was a 2v1 in a 4v4 situation. The shot was high and wide from a distance with no real chance at a cross pass.
   
• SECOND: Michigan gives up two more OMRs.  The first was a dangerous 3v2 that saw Lavigne leave the initial rebound right out in front of him, but he was able to cover the 2nd shot.  The other was a 2v1 that Lavigne correctly positioned himself to the shooter and stopped.  
   
• THIRD: No 3rd period OMRs!  Yay!  Only one very dangerous one on the night.

 

FINAL CORSI SCORE

I had: Minnesota 61(23), Michigan 59(17)

www.collegehockeynews.com had: Minnesota 61, Michigan 61

(Marc-Gregor Campredon) Alex Kile with his best performance of the year

OFFENSE

• FIRST: Michigan had a weird offensive period.  They generated 27 (!!) attempts on goal but only 2 from Home Plate.  They came close a couple times, but Schierhorn had the angle and it would have taken a corner shot to beat him.  It semed that the gameplan was to shoot if you had the puck anywhere in the attacking zone...because that's pretty much what happened.  The shot volume is great, but if they're going to beat Schierhorn tonight, they're going to have to get to a more dangerous place on the ice.
   
• SECOND: Michigan's second period was better and worse than their first.  They generated half as many chances (14), but they also got into HP with 7 of them...something they did not do in the first.  Alex Kile generated their first goal, hitting a corner on a shot from just above the circles that snuck inside the post.  Probably not the best goal for Schierhorn to give up, but he easily could have been screened.  I guess the first period of strategy of sheer volume of pucks to the net paid off for Michigan on that goal. Not as many chances but higher quality ones.  
   
• THIRD: Michigan had their best offensive period of the evening in the third.  They took 18 even strength attempts, including 10 from HP.  That's very, very good.  They also got some power play attempts from inside HP, as well.  Michigan's game-winner was from even strength when Nolan De Jong threw a puck at the net from the side boards and Evan Allen redirected it past Schierhorn.  Kile probably had his best game of the year.  He shot the puck when he had opportunities, and passed the puck very well, tallying a goal and two assists.  Allen has also come on very strong the last half of the season.  He's also had a nice shot, but has learned the art of slot-tipping, gathering the winner, tonight.  Michigan ended the night with 56(19), 34% from HP...right at their season average.  The difference was their volume, tonight.

 

DEFENSE

• FIRST: Well, taking my advice from the first period above, Minnesota did just that.  They out-attempted Michigan in the first period by one, getting 28 looks on net.  To top that, they were also able to get into the Home Plate area for 10 of those 28.  That's a nice 36% with a high volume.  If Michigan is going to allow those types of numbers, they're going to need another Hobey performance from Nagelvoort.  Michigan also struggled to get the puck out of their zone, lost an attacker a few times, and had more untimely DZTOs (surprise!).  Improvement requested.
   
• SECOND: Well, the second period was pretty much a carbon copy of the first for Michigan, defensively.  They allowed 25 more attempts and 11 from HP.  Again, not great.  Nagelvoort played very well, again, and Michigan was lucky to not surrender a goal.  I mean...this just is what it is: Minnesota has a good offense and Michigan does not have a good defense.  I expect the third to be similar, penalties pending.
   
• THIRD: Michigan gave up a 19(8) in the 3rd period.  The percentage wasn't great, but the overall volume decreased by period.  So...yay!  Still, not a great defensive third frame.  It took another fantastic effort from Nagelvoort to see this one through.  The would-be game-winner for Minnesota was just a great play/move/decision from Vinni Lettieri who came in on a 2v2, used his teammate and the defenders as a screen, and popped out to beat Nagelvoort.  Sometimes, good players makes winning plays.  In the end, Michigan gave up a 72(29).  That's a 40% from HP.  That's too high on too large a volume of shots.  

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

• FIRST: Minnesota got the only power play of the period (bit of a soft call on Calderone -or so it looked from up here).  They threatened with multiple chances before Cammarata finally got alone in front of Nagelvoort and wraped one around him.  Minnesota has the #4 power play at 26%.  Penalties need to be kept at a minimum tonight.
   
• SECOND: Minnesota had one more power play and threatened, again, but didn't score.  Nagelvoort was great on that penalty kill.  Michigan drew their first power play and had multiple different chances that Eric Schierhorn was equal to...until Alex Kile had a DO from just above the dot to the back post that Calderone tapped in to tie the game.  Pass of the year, if you ask me.  I may grunted as to refrain from cheering after that pass, as it was easy to see it all unfold from up here.  Fun stuff.
   
• THIRD: Michigan out-skated Minnesota in the third period and it resulted in several penalties.  They had a carry over from the second, threatened, but did not score. Michigan drew a second power play a few minutes late, but again failed to score. After giving up the lead, Lockwood broke in alone and was slashed, drawing Michigan's 3rd and final power play of the period.  Jake Slaker took advantage by fanning on his first attempt and rifling his second attempt over Schierhorn (who was fantastic, tonight) to tie the game.  Michigan never gave up after going down 3-2 and drawing the penalties exemplified that.  Michigan's only penalty kill of the 3rd came when Cutler Martin dumptrucked Schierhorn way after the whistle.  Minnesota only had a minute and a half advantage due to the Kloos slash...and they were in time kill mode, already, being up 3-2.  M: 2/4; Minn: 1/3

(Marc-Gregor Campredon) Kick Save? Glove Save? FACE SAVE!

GOALTENDING

• FIRST: Zach Nagelvoort started tonight after his shutout of Ohio State.  He looked the part, early on, making multiple point-blank saves.  Minnesota had several stretches of sustained offensive zone pressure, but Zach held strong for most of the period.  Neither first period goal should be on him.  The power play goal was shot from about 2 feet away and the second came from a 2v1 and an unlucky bounce after a nice defensive play.  He ended the period with 13 saves.
   
• SECOND: Nagelvoort backed up his nice first period with an even better second.  He did not allow a goal and made multiple saves from dangerous positions and two OMRs.  I thought his positioning and rebound control were both great.  The defense has not exactly helped him out a ton, but he's held strong as Michigan's last line of defense.  12 more saves for a two period total of 25.
   
• THIRD: Dude. Nagelvoort.  Maybe its just Steve Shields?  I tweeted something out about Michigan not having a best goalie.  They have three great ones.  Who do I want to start tomorrow night? Like, whomever, man.  Each have had hiccups because they're college-aged goalies, but, man...Nagelvoort played very well, agian, tonight.  The goal he gave up was just a great offensive play shot from very close.  He had no chance.  He also made about 3-4 consecutive saves and then had back-to-back glove snatches.  Is it past the trading deadline?  Can we deal one for Auston Mathews?  Nagelvoort ended with 35 saves on 38 shots.

 

ODD MAN RUSHES

• FIRST: Michigan surrendered two OMRs.  The first was a 3v2 that Nagelvoort got a piece of and it just trickled wide.  The second was a 2v1 that Boka raced back to break up, but the puck bounced right back to the attacker and he was in Nagelvoort and beat him.  Both could have easily been goals.  Michigan cannot get caught up ice against this team.
   
• SECOND: Ugh, another couple OMRs.  Neither cost Michigan a goal, though.  Minnesota had a couple 3v2s: both were denied by Nagelvoort, including the last one with his face.  Minnesota up to 4 OMRs.
   
• THIRD: Michigan gives up one more OMR: Another 3v2 and De Jong gets in front of it to block it aside.  Five OMRs is too many, if you ask me...especially against a team like this that can score.  You can't give them advantages on special teams or get caught up ice.  They got one tonight and could have easily has another 1-2.

 

FINAL CORSI SCORE

I had: Minnesota 72, Michigan 56

www.collegehockeynews.com had: Minnesota 73, Michigan 56

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

With one game left in the regular season, the Big Ten Tournament picture is becoming clearer – there are still a wide variety of potential outcomes, but most teams have a pretty good idea of where they’ll end up. With Michigan’s recent heartbreaking loss to Northwestern, and Iowa’s impressive road win over Wisconsin, it’s likely that Michigan will find itself playing in the 8/9 game on Thursday afternoon against none other than Illinois, the team that may have sparked the Michigan turnaround with a blowout win and Maverick Morgan’s harsh-but-mostly-true “white collar” comment. Derrick Walton in particular has been playing blue-collar ball as of late, and I’m sure he’d relish another shot at the Illini even though Michigan won the rematch.

This excellent post by Dan Baker at The Only Colors outlines the potential outcomes of this weekend of action across the Big Ten (and it’s definitely worth a click to read through in-depth) – right now, this is what the bracket would look like if there’s chalk in the remaining seven games:

The favorites in the remaining games (according to Kenpom) are in bold:

• Indiana at Ohio State
• Illinois at Rutgers
• Michigan State at Maryland
• Penn State at Iowa
• Purdue at Northwestern
• Minnesota at Wisconsin
• Michigan at Nebraska

A look at some possible seed outcomes after the JUMP.