Diaries

As every one knows safety Avery Walls was in town this past weekend for the game against U Conn. He was on an official visit with his brother, and this was his third time in Ann Arbor. He did not commit, which was not surprising or disappointing. No one felt that he would make his decision this fast.

This was however his first time in Ann Arbor for a game atmosphere. "The game was great, and the visit went great," he said. Staying for a couple days also gave him a chance to talk with the coaches more in depth, and get a feel for them. "I had a great talk with all the coaches, and Coach Hott did a great job of taking care of me and my family," Avery said.

Walls is expected to take an official visit out to Oregon on October 2nd, and one to Cal on October 9th. With that being said Avery has seen a lot of good things at Michigan, and this visit was something he really enjoyed. "This visit helped Michigan a lot. I'm going to be watching their next few games," he said. 

There have been rumors that Michigan may lead for Avery, and I wouldn't doubt those rumors at this point. We all know with recruiting though, anything can happen. 

Here are highlights from his first game of the season this year:

The game was obviously a success, and that has resonated through with the recruits in attendance. Here's a look at how this past weekend's visits went, and some reactions to the game from recruits. There's not many quotes from the first three, because I only spoke with them briefly, and Avery Walls is still in Ann Arbor.

Demetrius Hart

5'8, 190 lbs.

Running Back

Orlando, Florida

We'll just start off with the update you've been anticipating. Demetrius Hart decided not to commit this weekend. He came up with his uncle, teammates Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix and Nick Patti, as well as Tom Shaw (his trainer).

I will tell you that I thought this would be the weekend he would end his recruitment. I know this was a very good visit for him, and there's still no reason to believe that anything has changed as far as where he ranks Michigan (which is number one).

I don't have any deep meaningful quotes from him, but I did talk to him briefly. He's graduating early, so he has to make his decision soon. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a few more visits to other schools, and came back up to Ann Arbor for the MSU or Iowa game. Disappointing that nothing happened this weekend, but definitely a positive weekend for Michigan with his recruitment as a whole. Just stay patient.

Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix

6'2, 190 lbs.

Safety

Orlando, Florida

I spoke with Ha'Sean before the visit took place. He told me that he didn't want the visit publicized too much, and if it got out there that he was coming he might not go. As we all know it was reported everywhere that he would be in Ann Arbor, and he still came. Maybe he doesn't browse the interwebs, I'm not sure.

Anyhow, speaking with a few people about him makes me feel like he's pretty solid with Alabama. That's not to say that it would be impossible to sway him, it would just take quite a bit to do that. If Demetrius makes another trip up to Michigan and Ha'Sean were to come with him, there would be reason for excitement. I've been told that there may be some teammates (possibly former as well) trying to persuade him to go north. We'll just have to wait to see how it plays out.

Avery Walls

5'11, 185 lbs.

Safety

McDonough, Georgia

Avery's visit will last until today (Monday), so we'll have to wait a little bit for an update on the visit. I wouldn't expect a commitment from him, but if the visit blows him away it's not out of the question. I have a feeling that Michigan is in the driver's seat. This is his third trip to Ann Arbor.

This time he brought his brother with him to have him see what he's been talking about. He will continue to take his planned official visits to Oregon on October 2nd, and Cal on October 9th. He wants to make sure he's found the right fit and I think taking those official visits is important to him. Again, be patient. Michigan is a good spot.

Extra:

• AJ Jordan - 2011 wide receiver from Trotwood, Ohio was in attendance. He thought very highly of the game and atmosphere, and will eventually take an official visit in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin is barely in the lead right now, and this visit has helped to close that gap.
• Danny O'Brien & Matt Godin - 2012 defensive tackles and best friends! They both had an amazing time at the game. Danny said, "(Mike) Martin is a beast. The defense looked good. Me and Matt both had a great time, it was an awesome game." They both REALLY like Michigan, but it's still early. O'Brien already has offers from Tennessee and Michigan.
• Nick Patti - 2012 quarterback from Dr. Phillips in Orlando, Florida. This was Patti's second time up to AA, and it was a good one. "It was great for me, I loved it. It's hard not to like it there," he said. Tom Shaw (who trains Nick, Demetrius, Ha'Sean, Karlos Williams, etc.) accompanied Nick on the visit, and also had a favorable view. "Tom (Shaw) said he thinks it's a fantastic opportunity if it's presented to me."
• Anthony Zettel - Anthony always enjoys himself at Michigan, and this game was much of the same. I've said this before, but Anthony is now waiting until the end of the season to make his decision. He's waiting to see how Michigan's season turns out, and if there ends up being a coaching controversy. This win is one step closer to landing him.
• The general feeling among the recruits was that this was a great  win, and it was an exciting game. The crowd played a big factor too as some recruits said it was so loud they couldn't hear the person next to them at some points. Denard is not only a fan favorite, but a recruit favorite as well. His performance stood out to everybody, and had all the recruits talking about how exciting he is to watch. 

In Part 3 of the continuing analysis of turnovers, I’ll look at the impact of turnover margin (TOM) on the win/loss margin (WLM).

Summary:Basis: Only the 66 teams that automatically qualify (AQ) for the BCS bowls are included for the last ten years – 2000 to 2009. (See discussion below for why this change to AQ instead of all FBS was made.)

Note: In Part 1, a statistical analysis concluded: Luck is primarily responsible for TOM of approximately 80% of FBS football teams. For the other 20%, team performance (good or bad) is primarily responsible for TOM. Teams within +/- 4.0 TOM per year are primarily dealing with luck. For teams with more than +4.0 TOM per year, good performance is the primary factor for the TOM. For teams with more than -4.0 TOM per year, poor performance is the primary factor for the TOM.

Details Here:  http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-2-do-turnovers-turnaround

In Part 2, a statistical analysis concluded: Phil Steele is wrong. Turnovers do NOT equal turnaround. The teams Steele isolates (those with double-digit turnovers) are the teams whose TOM is primarily due to performance and not luck. Therefore his basic premise is incorrect. In addition, the percentage of teams that “turnaround” the next season is approximately the same when TOM is completely ignored.

Details Here:   http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-1-it-all-just-luck-1

The Switch To Automatic Qualifiers Only:It is obvious (to even the most casual observer) that teams in the AQ conferences are significantly better than the teams in non-AQ conferences. Over the past decade, 71% of AQ teams have winning records but only 30% of non-AQ teams have winning records. The reason for the low winning record of non-AQ teams is they are significantly overmatched in their OOC games against AQ teams.

TOM becomes less of a factor when the two teams playing have vastly different abilities. I looked at the same TOM data including all FBS teams and the correlation was not nearly as high. This is exactly as expected. Non-AQ teams often have +TOM in their OOC and still lose. Including non-AQ teams in this analysis would distort the results.

I did not attempt to eliminate the data for non-AQ games (i.e. subtract all the non-AQ data for TOM and WLM). The data for TOM and WLM includes ALL games but only the 66 AQ teams were included in the analysis.

The Gory Details:The first table provides yearly and total over the decade for: 1) the number of teams with the indicated TOM; 2) of those, the number of teams with a positive WLM; and 3) the percentage of teams with a positive WLM in that category.

The second table provides yearly and total over the decade for: 1) the number of teams with the indicated TOM; 2) of those, the number of teams with a positive WLM of 5.0 or greater; and 3) the percentage of teams with a positive WLM of 5.0 or greater in that category.

One More Thing– The question of cause and effect is bound to come up because I have only shown a correlation. "Correlation does not imply causation" is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though correlation is necessary for causation and can indicate possible causes or areas for further investigation).

One question to ask for causation, “Is the variable relevant?” The answer is obvious “TOM is relevant to the outcome of football games.” Some people have experienced a correlation between the clothes they wear and their team winning a football game. But, of course, there can be no cause and effect – the clothes a person wears is NOT relevant to the outcome of a football game (sorry to burst anyone’s bubble).

It is also obvious that there is no “direct cause’ and effect because teams win games with even large negative TOM (Michigan was -4 TOM versus Florida in the 2007 Citrus Bowl).

However, a cause may be classified as a "contributory cause," if the presumed cause precedes the effect, and altering the cause alters the effect. It does not require that all those subjects which possess the contributory cause experience the effect. It does not require that all those subjects which are free of the contributory cause be free of the effect. In other words, a contributory cause may be neither necessary nor sufficient but it must be contributory.

Thus, TOM meets the definition of a contributory cause.

Action since last rankings:

8-30-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Frederick Willis.
9-2-10 Illinois gains commitment from Cilnt Tucker.

There's some debate as to whether 2010 LB Antonio Kinard will be a member of the Wolverines' class of 2011. He's not currently listed on Rivals's commit list, so I'll hold off on including him for now.

Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).

No change for the Buckeyes.

Nothing new for Notre Dame.

No change for Nebraska.

No change for Sparty.

blah. Hopefully some commits on the way.

No change for IU.

No change for Hawkeyes.

No change for Northwestern.

No change for Minnesota.

Frederick Willis chooses Wisconsin.

Kyle Carter goes from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Illini grab Clint Tucker.

Randy Gregory goes from 3-star to 2-star on Scout. Taylor Richards goes from unranked to 77 on ESPN.

I saw a man walk yesterday.  The steps looked labored and difficult.  They could only be taken with the assistance of canes on each hand, but they were steps.  Steps that doctors told this man he would never take again in his lifetime.  This man took these steps in front of 113,000 roaring football fans and when he got to midfield, he did this.

They had to dip the banner so that he could touch it.  Jumping to touch it was out of the question, but it was still as thrilling as watching all the great players of Michigan-past race out of that tunnel and leaping to touch it. 

And as I watched this unfold from my seat in Section 39, the tears came.   My wife looked at me and noted, "You're getting a little teary, aren't you?"  I merely shrugged and said, "I'm watching a guy walk who shouldn't be, and we helped him do it...that's amazing." 

I don't know Brock Mealer or anyone in the Mealer family.  I had nothing to do with Brock Mealer walking on Saturday.  I teared up just the same.  I shed a tear for the pain and struggle that Brock must have had to endure for the past two years.  I shed a tear for Shelley Mealer for all she's lost and hope that I would never have to face that kind of loss in my life.  I shed a tear for the display of courage happening before my eyes.  I shed a tear because it made me proud to be a Michigan Wolverine.

The past two years have been tough for Michigan fans, but it's nothing compared to what Brock Mealer and his family have had to endure.  Many have said Michigan turned it's back on who we are when we hired Rich Rodriguez.  To those naysayers, I want to tell them that I saw Brock Mealer walk onto the field of Michigan Stadium on Saturday.  He walked to midfield and touched the banner.  None of it should have been possible, but it happened.  Despite what most have said, the University of Michigan is alive and well.

Impossible is Nothing.  Go Blue!

Yesterday's game showed me just how different it can feel to be a college football fan.  It was strange to question whether Michigan was legit, to wonder if we might be embarrassed by a blowout loss in our own Bigger and Newly Redecorated House.  Every turn in our favor filled me with relief more than excitement.  In the end I felt calm, with none of the jubilant, happy-dancing, shake my ass celebration that followed last year's blowout opener.  It seems that the last two seasons, and especially last year's collapse, have allowed my brain to be more detached from the game emotionally.  I am happy and relieved that we won, but I am afraid to jump on the wagon that could be heading for another cliff.

I do think this year will be different though, because I learned some things yesterday...

On Offense:

1. Denard Robinson is so awesome, he deserves to have his name spelled out in its entirety whenever it is written or spoken.  
2. Michigan is capable of good turnover Karma after all, what with recovering all three bad fumbles/muffed punts committed.  (Gallon, really?  WTF?)
3. Michael Shaw is possibly the best compliment to Denard Robinson at tailback because of speed.  When the two of them come together for the exchange the defense almost has to commit before they know who has the ball in order to have a chance at stopping the play.
4. UConn showed what happens when the defense does not commit.  The combined speed of Shaw and Denard Robinson tears the defense asunder.
5. We are spoiled at Michigan when it comes to sure handed receivers. 

On Defense:

1. GERG has installed the first defense I can recall that seems to actually "bend" but not "break."  The lack of big, game-changing plays was refreshing.
2. Giving up yards while making the other team sustain a drive can actually be a recipe for success.  The one turnover of the game seemed almost scripted to illustrate the virtues of this defensive approach.
3. Ipso-facto, I guess GERG is actually a good coach that maybe we can all have a little faith in.
4. Craig Roh is going to be a huge factor in this defense's success.  When left unmarked (or marked by a TB) he creates big problems in the backfield.  Marking him leaves less beef to stop Mike Martin and Co. 
5. Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh are good at some things at least.  Mouton can really deliver the wood, and Ezeh is a sure tackler.  Hopefully they can show continued improvement.  Our run D up the middle still looks pretty bad at times.

Looking Ahead:

So the opener is a win once again (YAY!).  ND may expose our defense more with their spread attack, but after watching them some yesterday I feel good about our chances.  If Charlie was still their coach I would be penciling in a win.  I think we should be ready for some regression on offense though.  Studying the film from the UConn game will no doubt give the ND coaches an edge that UConn couldn't have.  Can a defense focused on stopping Denard Robinson actually slow down this offense?  There is still much to learn...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shout out to Kovacs who looked even better than last year.   Dude is still way undersized and gets dragged at times, but he was no doubt in great position to make plays.  

Also let's all try to keep away from the Tate bashing.  That is a 19yo that played his heart out for this team a year ago, only to be sitting at 3rd string now.  I could plainly make out that he was simply trying to hide from the cameras at the end of the game and we should all try to have some respect for what he is going through.  For all sorts of reasons this team needs him and I hope he feels that and stays.

Edit: I forgot to mention our lack of penalties.  One personal foul at the very beginning and that was all she wrote.  The discipline of this team, should it hold going forward, may be what keeps the results mostly positive.