national champs baby
My first diary ever was a look at the hypothesis that option QBs get hurt with a higher frequency due to the extra hits the are exposed to. I followed that one up with an expanded data set to include 5 seasons instead of 1. This update adds 2009 to the set and gives the helihat a spin that I had not gone through the trouble of in the previous diaries.
For the forcier-like detail on what was done, please refer to those diaries and discussions. But here’s a high level summary:
- The scope was all FBS schools and all QBs with significant playing time. Significant playing time is defined as players who average more than 17 plays (passes + runs) per game they played in. This level is based on the median of the data (50-50 split on either side of the line).
- QBs were binned into 4 groups according to their run-to-pass ratio.
- Injuries and games lost (quarter game resolution) were tracked and statistic-ated.
Here’s the data. Sorry for the table not being copy&paste-able, Windows Live Writer was not cooperating with me.
Last season was a bad year for non-zero threat level QBs with levels 1-3 coming in above 30%. It’s important to note here that sample size is a factor in this. For example, each level 3 QB accounts for about 5% of that population so one injury sways the percentage by quite a bit. This is a big reason why there is so much variation in the injury rates for levels 1-3 from year to year. The aggregate totals are much more reliable because, at this point, each category has plenty of observations with which to make conclusions.
The graph above shows the overall range (black line), average (red circles), and the standard error of the average (red hashes) for each category. At first blush it looks like there’s a difference in the injury rates of level 1, 2, and 0/3 but the fact of the matter is that there is insufficient evidence to support this. I actually ran hypothesis tests this time and that was the outcome (failure to reject the null hypothesis that A=B=C=D). Note that this does not mean that no difference exists, simply that there is no reason to conclude that a difference does exist. The differences observed are statistically insignificant.
People who believe that option QBs get injured more often do so because that’s what they want to believe.
Michigan (24-12, 6-3)
Iowa (14-20, 3-6)
|Friday 2:30pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
|Alan Oaks (4-4, 3.60 ERA)||vs||Jarred Hippen (2-3, 3.86 ERA)|
|Notes: Michigan is 100-43 all time, Last year: 2-1 series win. Hippen |
is a LHP.
|Friday 30 minutes after Game One, |
Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
|Bobby Brosnahan(4-3, 4.26 ERA)||vs||Nick Brown (2-4, 7.27 ERA)|
|Saturday 1:05pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI|
|TBA||vs||Phil Schreiber (3-3, 5.29 ERA)|
|Notes: My guess is Burgoon if available, Sinnery otherwise. It may |
not matter due to weather.
The Hawkeyes come to Ann Arbor this weekend to close out the first half of Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes started the year with an inflated RPI by losing almost every game they had to some of the best teams in the nation, but since returning north, they've struggled offensively and fallen to #169 of 301 (Boyd's Pseudo RPI).
Full preview after the jump:
MGoBlue announced the release of the 2010 volleyball schedule today and while it's a bit disappointing compared to last season, this schedule may set up well for Michigan to make a run to return the the volleyball version of the Elite 8.
|8/27||Loyola (MD)||Toledo, OH|
Oregon State Invitational
|9/4||Florida Gulf Coast||Corvallis, OR|
|9/4||Oregon State||Corvallis, OR|
|9/10||Youngstown State||Cliff Keen Arena|
|9/11||Chicago State||Cliff Keen Arena|
|9/11||Miami (OH)||Cliff Keen Arena|
Arizona State Invitational
|9/18||@Arizona State||Phoenix, AZ|
Big Ten Season
|9/24||Iowa||Cliff Keen Arena|
|9/25||Minnesota||Cliff Keen Arena|
|10/1||@Ohio State||Columbus, OH|
|10/2||@Penn State||State College, PA|
|10/8||Wisconsin||Cliff Keen Arena|
|10/9||Illinois||Cliff Keen Arena|
|10/13||Michigan State||Cliff Keen Arena|
|10/15||Northwestern||Cliff Keen Arena|
|10/23||@Purdue||West Lafayette, IN|
|11/5||Penn State||Cliff Keen Arena|
|11/6||Ohio State||Cliff Keen Arena|
|11/13||@Iowa||Iowa City, IA|
|11/19||Purdue||Cliff Keen Arena|
|11/20||Indiana||Cliff Keen Arena|
|11/24||@Michigan State||East Lansing, MI|
Unfortunately, we weren't picked for the AVCA Invitational in Omaha, but we did pick up two quality tournaments in PAC-10 country. Michigan will face only one tournament team from 2009 in the non-conference, that being Binghamton. So compared to last season's schedule is quite a bit weaker.
The Oregon State trip is a return for last year's game, a 0-3 Michigan loss in Ann Arbor, and should be the marquee game of the non-conference. OSU does lose their best player in Rachel Rourke, but they do return a lot of players that should see them competing for a slot in the top of the PAC-10.
In conference season, Penn State and Ohio State remained paired on our schedule, with Michigan headed to State College and Columbus early in the season and getting the two at home early in the 2nd round of games. Michigan starts out the season with a home heavy schedule, which just means they have to end the season with a lot of tough road games.
Michigan should be poised for a very high winning percentage as it returns Lexi Zimmerman for her 4th year as well as junior defensive specialist/libero Sloan Donhoff, junior middle Karlee Bruck, leading kill returner, junior left side Alex Hunt (pictured right from MGoBlue), and junior middle Courtney Fletcher. Maybe this year will be the one where Penn State finally gets knocked off by Michigan.
Michigan took two games against a weak opponent that is still looking to wake the echoes and return to glory from their days when Paul Mainieri, current coach at LSU, was still in South Bend. In Notre Dame's first visit to Ann Arbor since 1977, Michigan won a closely contested game, and the next night, the Wolverines pounded out a huge win.
Abbreviated midweek recaps and thoughts after the jump.
So I just finished watching the Spring Game for a 5th time, and I will admit that watching it that many times has changed the opinion that I had after the first time that I watched the game. First of all, thanks to MgoVideo for posting the 720p torrent so that I could watch the game as often as possible!
So, I only concentrated on Tate's and Denard's drives. This was because I don't see Devin making huge strides this year to supplant both of these QB's. His plays reminded me of Denard's last year, except Devin can run the Zone Read a bit better than Denard at this point of his career (# of practices, that is, since Denard didn't enroll early). That may seem like something that shouldn't just be glossed over, but Devin's inability to read the defenses in the passing game, along with his penchant to revert to his shotput throw under durress causes me to be a bit dismissive. He IS the future, and the future looks bright, but why rush it?
So, after watching the two QB's, I have to say that I do not see Tate and the inevitable #2 nor do I see Denard as the inevitable #1. I'll share what I have, and see if maybe it gives some people a different perspective. I guess I should say that I don't personally care who starts for this team. I don't think a single person is ever bigger than the team.
So, I counted the number of pass plays called, run plays called, and put a check mark next to pass plays that I would consider those that forced the QB to "read the defense". So, WR Screens, HB Screens, etc. wouldn't get a check mark.
Tate: 35 plays, 19 pass plays, 16 run plays
Out of the 19 pass plays, Tate suffered 2 "sacks" due to the pressure from the #1 defense. So, unlike the official box score I actually have 17 passes that Tate threw (completing 10), not 16. Out of the 19 pass plays that have Tate as the QB, 5 required looking downfield and disecting the defense. 1 of these resulted in an Incomplete and 1 resulted in a "Sack". So, 14 pass plays were screens or rollouts to one side of the field where Tate looked for a WR or TE on the play side sideline.
Denard: 30 plays, 16 pass plays, 14 run plays
Here I also have Denard going 9 for 12. Even though there were 16 pass plays, 4 of those had Denard tucking the ball and running for positive yards. Out of the 16 pass plays, though, only 2 required a reading of the defense, and both went to Roundtree. I did not include the 97-yard pass or the pass to T-Rob because both pass plays were a 4 Verticals route with the inside receiver slanting towards the opposite hash (thanks Mark Campbell!). The 2 I gave him included the PA Rollout left to Roundtree (he wasn't primary receiver, FB was, and Roy looked like he played a hitch or dig route) and the 2nd TD pass to Roundtree (was an all curls pattern, but Denard had to direct traffic and wait for a hole in the defense to thread it in there).
My conclusion was that we can win with either of these QBs and that we need to stop using the old-school mentality that you HAVE to have a #1 guy. The playcalling will be totally different based on who is in, but even if the same plays are called, they will have totally different packages depending on who is QB. With Tate, the Zone Read and Belly plays could be successful if they keep a TE in as a pulling H-Back type. That way the line could be used for the RB and the TE could pull in a trap-style block in case Tate wants to keep it (since he is Dilithium-deficient). With Denard, I think the passing game becomes more simplified with more 4- or 5-WR sets so that he has the gaps to take off or be powerful in the Zone Read scheme.
I just think that if you only saw the game in attendance or once or twice, take another look. I was much more excited for both QBs after the last time I watched.
As a sidenote, I bombarded everyone with a lot on the QBs, but I did have other observations:
1. Will Campbell was destroying Centers and Guards all day, but the Michael Cox TD was due in large part because Will pushed himself right out of the play. If he kept his head up he would've eaten....no wait, that would be inappropriate...
2. Love the nuances of the new defense, and can't wait to see who ends up at Spur, since Kovacs seems to have that Bandit positon locked up.
3. I think Brian was the one that pointed out that the weakness of having guys like Mike Williams and Kovacs as the SS's was that the 4 Verticals route would expose their lack of speed, yet RichRod ran that play several times. Maybe film or GERG?
Since we are blowing the whole thing up, why don’t we look at what a truly consolidated power structure in which all the big boys stay at the table, invite a few of the little guys that have been chirping the loudest and push everyone else out of the picture. The result is 5 conferences, 15 teams each and a 75 team SugerMegaUltraDivision1BowlPlayoffChampionshipDivision.
My rules, 15 teams per conference, Big East disappears, no members poached from within the 5 remaining conferences. 65 teams from the Big Six Conferences, Notre Dame and 9 other teams survive.
The conferences would each be split into 3 divisions, 5 teams each. Four inter-division games are obvious and from there we have two options, option one is 3 cross division games per division and 2 non conference games and option 2 is 2 cross division games per division and 4 non conference games. Personally, I like the first option because if you mix any match-ups for rivalries you still play all the teams every other year as opposed to once every four years. I think if you are consolidating like this, non-conference games are less of a necessity.
Since I have already blatantly stolen some of the ideas from UMFootballCrazy’s Big 16, why stop now. Besides the 3 division format, I also liked the 4 team conference playoff at the end. 3 Division winners plus a wildcard face off in a four team conference championship. The 5 conference winners plus 3 wild cards could then face off in an 8 team playoff for the national championship.
10 11 12 14 15
|Ohio St||Notre Dame||Iowa|
New teams: ND, Pitt, Rutgers and Syracuse
2009 projected playoffs: MSU @ OSU, PSU @ Iowa
Michigan could preserve rivalries with Ohio St and Minnesota and under the 3 game scenario, rotate among the other 4 in each division every other year.
New teams: Memphis, Cincinnati, Louisville
2009 projected playoffs: LSU @ Florida, Cincinnati @ Alabama
Big 12 Bible Belt Conference
|Texas A&M||Oklahoma St||Missouri|
|Texas Tech||Colorado||Iowa St|
New teams: TCU, Colorado St, Houston
2009 projected playoffs: Nebraska @ Texas, TCU @ Oklahoma St
|Virginia||NC St||Georgia Tech|
|Virginia Tech||Wake Forest||Florida St|
|Conn||West Virginia||South Florida|
New teams: UConn, West Virginia, South Florida
2009 projected playoffs: WVU @ Georgia Tech, Clemson @Virginia Tech
|Washington St||USC||Arizona St|
New teams: Boise St, San Diego St or Fresno St, Utah, BYU, UNLV
2009 projected playoffs: Arizona @ Boise, BYU @ Stanford
Conference champions are then seeded 1-5 with the three at large selections going 6-8. Seeding are adjusted so that conference opponents can’t meet until the championship game. To make this work #7 TCU is switched with #8 Iowa.
Personally I like some of the ideas brought in from international soccer better than this, but that radical of a change isn’t likely to happen anytime soon or ever for that matter. National championship participants would probably be playing 17 games in a season which does seem like a bit of a stretch. Basketball scheduling would be an 18 game conference schedule with 4 opponents (probably division) getting a home and home and the other 10 teams getting one match-up each during the regular season. Conference tournaments could either be 1st round bye for 1st place team or Big East style bracket where 1-9 get a first round bye and then 1-4 get a second round bye. I didn’t have much trouble making up the conferences or the divisions, but a couple teams could probably move around. West Virginia could fit better in the Big 10 and switch with Syracuse or Rutgers. As far as teams in or out of these conferences, the hardest calls where which California team to take, San Diego St or Fresno St and which teams to add to the former Big 12, could potentially bring in Tulsa instead of Houston or Colorado St.