I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
Just got back from our annual week up at Camp Michigania.
For those of you who don't know, Camp Michigania is the U of M Alumni Association's family camp...located on the beautiful shores of Walloon Lake.
We've been going since our kids were very young...and, even though they are now both tweens, it remains our favorite week of the year. I'd recommend it to any MGoParents!
At any rate, the faculty forums are one of the highlights of each session. The faculty forums feature presentations by U of M professors...followed the next morning by an informal conversation with the previous evening's speaker.
I was very excited when I found out that one of the featured faculty members during our week was going to be Lloyd Carr.
He covered a lot of ground during his presentations...and during the Q & A that followed.
Mike Hart was singled out as a player who exceeded expectations and played with a tremendous amount of heart. Tom Brady received multiple mentions as being both tough and and an incredible leader.
Coach Carr obviously greatly admired Bo and shared many of Bo's leadership philosophies with us. Bo clearly eschewed a "win at all costs" approach in favor of doing things "the right way." Bo felt that a Michigan Man always does things the right way and doesn't break the rules.
Coach Carr indicated that the best-performing players have a mental toughness and a love of the game. This accounts for the differing level of success among players with similar measurables...and for some players outperforming expectations and others failing to live up to them.
An interesting tidbit: Coach Carr's contract gave him final say over which ball was used, uniforms, etc. I'm guessing that the whole "uniformz" meme would not have arisen had Coach Hoke been given this same power.
Many of the expected questions were asked and discussed...cheating in recruiting, SEC dominance, influence of $$ on the game, conference size/alignment, Kordell, MSU 2001, the Horror, RichRod, Manziel, 1997, why he retired when he did, etc. This post would get too long if I shared all of this comments...and I also feel as thought there's a little bit of a "what's said at Michigania stays at Michigania" expectation that should be honored. This wasn't an on-the-record press or media event.
I will say that he answered the RichRod questions vaguely/carefully...and that the question re: the Horror was about how he handled the post-game lockerroom rather than what happened during the game. He expressed great pride in how that team recovered to play well during the remainder of 2007. He said, though, that he felt that the 1994 team never totally recovered from Kordell's hail mary.
A great story re: Charles Woodson. Coach Carr had a policy in place that you didn't play in a game if you didn't practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the Tuesday before The Game in 1996, Woodson showed up to practice in street clothes and did not participate. Coach Carr told Woodson to show up in his office the next morning at 8AM. At the meeting, Woodson indicated he was hurt and wasn't going to be able to practice that day either. Coach Carr reminded him of the policy, and Woodson indicated he understood it. Knowing that he couldn't make an exception for Woodson, but also knowing that Woodson was key to our success, he did what we all would've done. He called Woodson's mother. Needless to say, Woodson showed up for practice on Wednesday...and played in The Game.
EDIT: A few addtional items...
Tom Brady very seriously considered transferring when he was stuck at third on the depth chart. Everyone in the room gasped a bit at the thought.
The 1997 championship team was invited to the White House. When Coach Carr asked Bo (a staunch Republican) if he wanted to attend, Bo said "no, and you shouldn't go either!"
Bo gathered his assistants to discuss the possibility of going to Texas A & M. He asked all of them their thoughts, and many advised him to take the opportunity. One of them highlighted the additional income for Bo and ability to take care of his family. Bo's response was something along the lines of..."But you're not the one who's going to have to stand up in front of the 120 men that you recruited and tell them that you're leaving them."
A sign that hung in the locker room during Coach Carr's tenure..."Blame no one. Expect nothing. Do something."
Went to the Mott thing today. After last year's relatively interesting scrimmage they went back to a no-pads situational walkthrough that was a lot of punting and field goals. Irritating. They did do a couple of two-minute drills on which they went full offense and defense that were illuminating.
Things I gathered:
1. Gibbons was automatic until the field goals got out to 54 yards, at which point he and Wile took turns missing. Had range out to 49 easy.
2. Kenny Allen keeps booming punts. Wile is so consistent though that I think it'll be hard to take the job away. Both kicking spots are in very good hands.
3. They showed a spread punt, then would motion into a conventional punt. Trolling Brian? They did kick from the spread a couple times but the personal protectors didn't close ranks after the snap went through... looked dangerous.
4. Stribling and De'Veon Smith were heavily involved in kick coverage teams to the point where it seems unlikely they'll redshirt. Gedeon got on the field in special teams but only late, seemingly as a third-teamer. I think both LBs will redshirt.
5. Shallman, Avery, and Gant were off to the side doing rehab-type exercises with Wellman. Shallman had a big brace and was walking with a limp. That's a boo-boo that seemed like it would take some time to heal. Redshirt likely. Avery has his chronic back thing, so I assume that's just the usual with him. They had Shallman drag a rather large cart in with a big rope.
6. In the two minute drill the line was Lewan-Glasgow-Miller-Kalis-Schofield. When the second team came in it was Braden-Bryant-Burzynski-Gunderson-Magnunson. Looks like all the freshman OL are headed for redshirts, and that Braden is no longer a serious consideration at guard. I think Miller will win the C job even if Bryant comes through because they can't trust his health yet.
7. Gardner was awesome. He fired balls in inch-perfect, hit a lovely fade over the top to a diving Chesson, and just looked killer. Morris alternated excellent throws with horrible stuff, including a pick way wide of his intended target and a crazy sidearm panicked hurl that was reminiscent of freshman Mallett. But he also threw some beautiful balls, a couple on the run.
Gardner was *awesome*.
8. Butt had a great catch and run, but bobbled and dropped an easier one. Reynolds made a nice leaping catch on Gardner's only iffy throw of the day, a short hitch that sailed on him.
9. They held Gordon and Avery out. It was Furman and Wilson with the first team and Clark and Hill with the second at S. Assume that's because Avery and Gordon have won jobs.
10. They ran mostly nickel, which featured Clark-ROTATING-Black-Beyer on the line, with Glasgow and Wormley rotating through there amongst a couple others. Countess folded inside to nickel with Hollowell and Channing Stribling at the corners. Taylor was second team with Jourdan Lewis and Thomas at nickel. It really looks like Stribling's going to play.
11. Holowell looked good. Hard to get separation from him.
12. Gardner was awesome.
13. Norfleet and Dileo were the only punt returners, looks like Gallon has retired there. Norfleet didn't screw up any catches or decisions not to catch in a half-dozen chances. FWIW.
14. Wormley got some good pressure when he was in. No pads, so tough to tell if that's meaningful.
15. Ryan didn't do anything but was walking around without a brace or limp.
16. Both Smith and Green are very impressive physically. Green's arms are the size of legs. Hard to tell anything about them in passing drills. Toussaint got one carry on which he made a really quick cut upfield; Morgan was right there, though.
17. They drilled pistol snaps and shotgun as much as under center, and from the shotgun they ran veer handoffs on which a GA would come upfield or not, thus determining who would keep the ball. So the inverted veer lives and the pistol is happening.
Pull up the NCAA official stats and Michigan’s red zone efficiency looks great, ranking third with scores on 93% of trips. Brendan Gibbons had a lot to do with that as Michigan connected on 14 field goals in 46 trips. But as tends to happen in these situations, the truth is much more complicated the NCAA would have you believe.
After the concept of fumble luck, 3 <> 7 may be the second statistical pillar of MGoBlog. The NCAA’s stat does not believe what we believe. Their rankings are based on a simple equation:
[Times scoring in the Red Zone]
[Trips to the Red Zone]
For the NCAA 3=7. An equally simple measure that has been strangely ignored is Points Per Trip (PPT). By that measure (and taking out meaningless second half trips and games against FCS teams), Michigan drops to 44th at 5.2 PPT in 36 qualifying trips.
Red zone Efficiency is a very easy stat to overreact to. The sample size is small and a couple of fluky plays can swing the ranking either way. When you expand the study beyond the end result of the trip and look at the 110 individual plays that comprised Michigan’s 2012 red zone offense, there is at least a little more sturdy basis for evaluation, although the smaller the sample set, the more likely there is a large piece of luck involved in any outputs, whether positive or negative.
Second Down was not our Down, and Other Findings
To evaluate each play I looked at the touchdown percentage for drives at each possible possible down, distance and yardline from inside the 20. Every play either makes the offense more or less likely to score a touchdown on the drive. A first and goal from the 1 yard line results in a touchdown on the drive 91.4% of the time, therefore a touchdown is worth 8.6%. Second and goal from the 1 results in a touchdown 87.3% of the time so getting stopped on first down is worth –4.1%. Each play is evaluated based on its impact to Michigan’s chances of scoring a touchdown on the drive. Even though the odds of a field goal dropped slightly as you move back within the 20, for this study I just wanted to focus on the effect on potential touchdowns.
Michigan ran 43 first down plays on their qualifying red zone trips last season and put themselves in a situation more likely to result in a touchdown on 47% of them. Even though their plays were slightly more likely to be negative than positive, the positive plays had a higher magnitude, resulting in a net positive of about 52%, or half of a touchdown.
Second down was where the problems started. Michigan ran 39 qualifying second down plays in the red zone and only 14 of them bettered their chances of reaching the end zone. Michigan finished at –221% on second down, a loss of over two touchdowns due to poor second down performance.
Michigan actually held up well on second down rushes, improving their odds on 12 of 23 second down rushes. The problems were centered around second down passing. After the Robinson to Gardner touchdown on the first 2nd down red zone pass of the season, Michigan went 0-9 with 2 sacks on the next 11 pass plays. Michigan quarterbacks locked into Devin Funchess and Jeremy Gallon in these ill-fated situations as the were targeted on 7 of the 9 incompletions. The incredibly surprising play action was not the only issue, only 2 plays were noted as play action in the UFR’s and another 3 were listed as waggle or rollout, but one of those was the initial touchdown.
Where Michigan struggled on second down they excelled on third down. Michigan got a first down or touchdown on 16 of 28 third down plays and reversed their second down loss with a +324% change in their touchdown odds on third and fourth down. Michigan’s binary down success was largely driven via the pass but the situation greatly changed when Devin Gardner came on for Denard Robinson. Denard was 1-5 with a sack on third down while Devin Gardner went 5-5 (all for first downs or touchdowns) with a sack. Where the second down plays were focused on two different players, Gardner third down passes were to 4 different players on the five completions.
Gardner’s third down prowess continued on the ground with a +122% rating on five third down red zone carries. The lack of confidence in the traditional running game around the goal line was evident as only 4 of 13 red zone carries on third and fourth downs were taken by running backs. Toussaint and Vincent Smith both went 1/2 on their attempts.
Devin Gardner Devin Gardner Devin Gardner
So Devin Gardner was pretty good in the red zone. Over all plays he was +432%, or over 4 touchdowns added over the course of the season. In fact, Gardner’s success was probably unsustainably good. I don’t have touchdown’s added for all players, but if you look at pure points added in the red zone, Gardner’s five game red zone average was the second best season ever to Tim Tebow’s 2007 Heisman season. Gardner is really good in the red zone but it is going to be very tough to sustain this level for a full season, only one player ever has.
But what about the other Wolverines?
The only other Michigan player to finish with a positive number was Justice Hayes, by a hair. Hayes’ singular red zone carry against South Carolina netted him a 2% increase. Among the other running backs, Thomas Rawls was –12%, Vincent Smith was –66% (although he was actually the most valuable receiver) and Fitzgerald Toussaint was –117%. All three were making positive plays less than 50% of the time.
Denard finished with a slightly negative red zone contribution for the season, with –39% but on a team low 39% positive ratio. As mimicked by his career, Denard showcased a lot of valuable game changing plays in the red zone, but struggled with consistency. In the end, his 2012 red zone negatives outweighed his positives.
On the receiving side, targets of Vincent Smith, Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo and Devin Funchess all finished on the positive side while Roy Roundtree was the sole receiving target to end with a negative rating with pair of 3rd and Goal targets from the 7 falling incomplete.
What It Could Mean for 2013
As noted above, red zone efficiency is fickle stat and can easily swing. With that said, based on small sample size splits, here are some pros and cons heading into the season.
- Keep taking care of the ball, no QB interceptions or RB fumbles in the red zone is a great streak to keep up
- Even with rocket-shoes Gallon and The Funchise, Michigan was at their best when spreading the ball around
- Devin Gardner will probably not be as good in the red zone as he was last year but his success was strong enough that it was more than just sample size
- Stay aggressive and hopefully the third down success can hold, but hopefully more trips can be resolved before then
- Fix second down passing, 1-10 with 2 sacks, was really ugly
- Need contributions from the running backs in the run game. Too many trips were dependent on Gardner/Robinson bailing the offense out.
The two biggest things that seem like more than just fluky outcomes of limited play counts are the success of Devin Gardner in the red zone in both running and passing and the failures passing the ball on 2nd down. Some of this is due to the incredibly surprising play action, 5 of the 12 UFR’d plays where listed as PA, rollout or waggle, but the other six plays weren’t any better.
At this point I have no clue how to keep my expectations for Devin Gardner on earth. There are lots of sample size issues with only five games under his belt but those were five pretty spectacular five games from him and he was at his best in the highest leverage situations. I don’t think he can do it for a whole season and hopefully the defense and running game mean he doesn’t have to, but man, that guy made a lot of plays last year.
I case you missed it, new footage was released today of highlights from the 2nd scrimmage.
If the first scrimmage was to get the starters some live action looks, this one was reserved for 2nd team and guys still in a battle for the open starting spots. This means we got some of our first looks at some of the incoming freshmen, like Morris, (a not getting buried) Green, Da'Mario Jones, Channing Stribling, etc.
I went through and describe some of the plays, including personel where I could. Fort Schembechler's resident cameraman was instructed to shoot this up close and personal, as with the last one. This made things difficult, I tried to do as much detective work to ID as many guys as I could (ENHANCE!).
Handoff to Hayes
Gardner in shotgun, Hayes to his left. Handoff. Magnuson releases downfield, probably to pick up Bolden, probably misses Bolden. Bolden is sitting in the hole as the camera pans back, waiting for Hayes. Neither Kalis nor Funchess gets beat, but both cede ground (to Wormley and Beyer respectively) which basically boxes Hayes in forcing him into Boldon's tackle. Hurst as nose tackle also beats Miller to help out. Yeesh.
Handoff to Hayes
Gardner in 'gun, Hayes to his left. Thanks to Mr Tight Angle, I have no idea what's going on at the line. Looks like a similar play to the last one. As the camera follows Hayes to the line, Glasgow has a good block on Washington but Wormley is beating Magnuson to the inside. Wormley sheds and tackles. Looks like it's Kalis's job this time to block Bolden and he gets blown up so much it actually takes Bolden past the play. Miller seems to have latched onto C Gordon and riden him out of the play FWIW. Worlmey likely saves the day here as there's good blocking downfield.
Nominal Play Action pass attempt to Williams
Gardner under center. Someone motions to the right side of the formation. Gardner "fakes" a handoff to Hayes, who actually runs behind his back. Defense is blitzing C Gordon around the right edge and Boldon up the middle, with Black also beating Glasgow on the left. Gardner is flushed to left and fires on the run at the sideline with C Gordon in hot pursuit. Wilson is there on coverage and makes a play on the ball but whiffs. He probably distracts Williams enough that he drops the pass, which was probably out of bounds anyway. Ojemudia (!) has also made his way some 30 yards downfield.
Gardner in shotgun with Hayes to his right. C Gordon beats Schofield. This is a pretty good example of what Mattison was talking about. C Gordon gets the edge but Gardner could have just stepped up in the pocket and given Schofield a better blocking angle if there was no interior pressure. From his reaction, it looks like there was interior pressure so he back pedals and puts Schofield in even worse position. Thanks to the jerk cameraman, the world will never know.
Handoff to Green
2nd team in. Burzynski, Chris Bryant, Gunderson and Bosch are your OL. Morris under center hands off to Green. The intended gap is between Bryant and Gunderson. Gunderson and K Hill combo Godin and but Gunderson releases before really handing off the block, putting Hill in a bad position. Bryant gets a good block on Ash to seal off the left. Bosch is pulling but gets there at the same time as Green, and actually looks to have impeded him. Green bursts through the collapsing hole with a head of steam, with a nifty cut around Godin and breaking Jenkins-Stone's arm tackle. Jeremy Clark coming of the left edge in run support makes a nice diving tackle to slow up Green, mystery player (Hollowell?) comes from outside to make the tackle. Delano Hill(?) is also in position to prevent a big gain. Jake Butt walks into the frame at the end too, not sure where he was on this play, but probably lined up to the right of Hill.
Pass attempt to Da'Mario Jones
Morris in 'gun, slings a quick pass to a blanketed Da'Mario Jones. Delonte Hollowell on coverage immediately nails Jones and drives him into the ground hard, resulting in a PBU. Ball was maybe slightly overthrown anyway. Pocket was clean FWIW, but I have no idea who was out there.
Pass attempt to ???
First team back in. Gardner under center drops back and makes a half-hearted fake handoff to Rawls(?), who goes on to pick up an unblocked Charlton, borderline holding. Pipkins or Black fights his way through and gets his hands up in the throwing lane forcing Gardner to bail out of a collapsing pocket as Godin and Beyer are also converging. He slings an ill advised pass as he's crossing the LOS to a covered receiver. Stribling is in perfect position to make the catch but it clanks of his hands.
Pass attempt to Jackson
Gardner in 'gun. Gunderson directs Godin coming off the edge upfield and behind Gardner. Gardner has lots of time, but still ends up forcing it to a blanketed Jeremy Jackson. Stribling makes a diving play on the ball for a PBU. I can see why Stribling caught the coaches' eyes during camp.
Pass to Chesson
Gardner under center. Slips on his drop back (yips!) but recovers impressively to dump a short pass to Chesson. Stribling comes up to tackle, has to resort to a WWE style takedown. I can also see how Stribling probably needs another year to bulk up. Rawls has a nice pick up on Wormley in pass pro.
Handoff to Smith
Blake Bars in at RG, Gunderson RT. Morris under center (Miller), drops back and hands off to Smith. Gunderson seals off Godin to the outside, TE gets OLB Jack Doyle.... Bars is sealing off Ash to the inside as the camera pans away. As Smith hits the gap with a nice quick cut to avoid Ash who is beating Miller (?) and accelerates quickly. Ash is
Morris in 'gun between Hayes on his left and Smith on his right. Smith looks like he actively avoids Godin after Godin's clearly beaten David Dawson and is beelining to the QB. What the freshman giveth, the freshman taketh away. Not that it matters because Ben Gedeon and Dan Liesman (?) both are coming clean too. Morris is happy he is wearing an orange jersey. Braden does look pretty good at LT here with a smooth kick slide and stonewalling the DE, FWIW.
Bootleg pass to Bo Devers
Morris under center. The OL zone blocks right as Morris play action fakes and rolls out to the left (damn lefties) and fires a laser to Bo Devers sitting in a gap in zone. Tackled by RJS and Clark. Willie Henry was the DL mirroring Morris on the roll out.
Pass to Funchess
Gardner in gun, quick throw to Funchess underneath. Taylor and Wilson (?) on the tackle.
Pass to Wangler
Morris in gun, quick slant to Wangler. It's almost like they've done this before. Wangler is met by Gedeon and Hollowell but neither wrap up and Wangler manages to stay up. Jeremy Clark has to come in and lay a nice tackle to bring him down.
Pass to Butt
Shane in gun, pocket is collapsing but he's showing good instincts to step up and throw it on the money to Butt, as Ojemudia and Clark are bearing down on him. Gunderson and Glasgow were the guys blocking those two, respectively. Butt has Ross beat by a step and uses his body to shield Ross from making a play on the ball. Ross can't bring him down either and Jarrod Wilson comes up for a lackluster tackle attempt to force Butt out of bounds.
Pass attempt to Chesson
Morris in gun. Looks like a nice pocket and with time and space, Shane unleashes the dragon. The ball rises in a beautiful arc, then rises some more, and drops perfectly onto the hands of.... a blanketed Chesson. Stribling with another nice play on the ball, knocks it away. Artillery: acquired.
Pass attempt to Reynolds
Morris in gun again. Hayes to his right. Pressure comes from his right as Clark or Ojemudia beats Gunderson. The rest of the line (Magnuson, Glasgow, Miller, Kalis) is doing well though, which gives Morris room to step up and throw. Wilson(?) in coverage tips the ball but Reynolds stays with it and brings it in. Unfortunately he is 3 yards out of bounds. Again, good instincts and footwork by Morris to step away from pressure. Also again, Mattison's comment about the interior guys needing to get penetration applies.
Pass to Butt, TD
Play action bootleg. The line zones left as Morris fakes the handoff to Green and rolls out right... right into an unblocked(?) defender. Morris plants a foot and flips the ball to Jake Butt. Impressive. There looked like several open guys (K Hill, D Jones) in the vincinity as well. Green looked to have a nice lane had Morris handed it off.
So, this is what this "depth" thing I keep hearing about is. There were some areas of clear drop off from the starters, but on the other hand there were many others where was some quality play from backups. And there are some future stars hidden out there.
Stribling had the speed to stay with guys and the length to make plays on the ball. Add 10-15 pounds and this kid could be special. Pretty amazing we were able to snatch him up with a camp offer late. Jeremy Clark also looked pretty solid at safety.
Morris is showing what made him a blue chip recruit. Selection bias caveats apply but he's also showing a surprising maturity in the pocket. I'm sure some of your typical freshmen QB errors were made and edited out, but I definitely feel a lot better after seeing this.
The TE position is actually a strength now, which is amazing considering the position hardly existed 2 years ago. This is good because....
Receivers looked pretty meh. Gallon looks to have sat this one out, but the committee of guys other than him seemed to struggle getting an inch of daylight. Starters not getting separation against your 2nd team corners usually isn't a good sign. The Darboh injury is going to hurt more than some are willing to admit I think.
Well, just about 7 days until we find out (and I hand off charting to people that actually know what they're doing).
Everytime the moon shines I become alive. I’m a beast in the night. I’m on the prowl and I hope to find some light.
-Kid Cudi, Alive (Nightmare)
We all have our on favorite canons, don't we? Once upon a diary in a dark and distant era I made reference to one of mine, that one by Pachelbel; You know the one. It is inescapable. I mean, et tu Rap? Eminem, Jay Z, Tupac. But more favorite to me than the original is Blues Traveler’s riff on it, Hook. The song itself is kind of a slap in the face to the general public who’s taste in music is, apparently, so trite and unsophisticated that we don't realize that “when I’m stuck and need a buck, I don’t rely on luck” meaning musicians can just hijack Pachelbel and we’ll gobble it up anyway, even if we can’t put a finger on just why we like it.
“Hey pizza guy! Dough, sauce, cheese, and toppings? What kind of cookie cutter bullshit is this???” Relax, Popper, that [stuff] is delicious so what exactly is the problem here?
(Unfortunately for you all the combination of deep night, data induced madness, and alcohol overcomes the “this only fascinates me” levees in my mind and the inmates overrun the asylum so all apologies and thank you for indulging me.)
So why do I like the song even though Popper is being kind of a dick? Because it’s a brilliant monument of knowledge, understanding, wit, and self awareness. And irony. The song is a musical trope wrapped around lyrics consisting of lyrical analysis, mocks its performers, its industry, and its audience and STILL made hella loot. Kharma(n)* is a bitch though: Blues Traveler hasn’t had a song that popular ever since and it was this close to being their most popular single ever.If Penn & Teller did music, they would would do this.
For me, peeking behind the curtain piques my curiosity rather than diminishes my interest. It makes me think “hey, I can do that” for a couple days until I remember “oh yeah, I lack skillz and talent.” And then I settle into true appreciation and fascination in watching people do things I cannot. The hook brings you back, man. Again and again.
My point in all that was that worthy synthesis is derivative of rigorous analysis. That is, a good place to begin creating something worthy of creation is by understanding things that are worthy of understandation. Follow? UFR, Mathletics, other stuff, they’re all the same—they break things down in order to build other things up. Even if the thing that is being built up is just context, that’s a thing worth building. If you know a bit about something and look at it upside down, sideways, and in a mirror, you might just see something kind of cool…in a nerdy sort of way. ‘Tis the Canon of MGoBlog.
*MCalidagger said “that’s Carmen!” to Lady of the Lake one time when he was three just seconds after she had stubbed her toe while placing him in the purgatory of time-out. He was mad, she was mad, it was hilarious. Then I got in trouble for laughing. How is that my fault? Troof is troof, yo.
Here We Glow Again
Another of my favorite cannons (remember: gun == Multivariate Least Squares Linear Regression Model) is what I call the Blue Moon Model. It really began as a basic assessment technique with which to project my team’s prospects with a few simple lower level assumptions. Three years on, I think its worth a remix. Previous foundations are laid here and here.
As a refresh the model takes a team’s Offensive Yards per Game, Defensive Yards per Game, and Turnover Margin per Game and converts that to an expected Win Percentage. IT IS A RETRODICTIVE MODEL so, it’s predictive value relies upon the validity and accuracy of the assumptions that are made. Even when you’re dead nuts on with those assumptions, you’ll be off by more than 1 win about 26% of the time. So, good luck guessing, then good luck winning. That’s the betrayal part of the name Belewe. This is not a problem though, in the world of inductive logic even though conclusions are only probable, they are useful nonetheless. Also, being able to lay 3 to 1 odds is pretty good. And, guessing aint that hard when you know what you’re doing (upside down, sideways, mirrors…did I mention incense?).
It turns out, the model can be boiled down even further without sacrificing it’s accuracy by collapsing OYDS and DYDS into Net Yards per Game (NYDS). Voila, a 2 factor model with killer statistical significance. The intercept makes more sense too because it is unbiased. Say your team is average (OYDS = 375, DYD = 375, TOM = 0); why should you expect to win an extra 3% of your games? Trick question; You shouldn’t. The best application of this math is to make your assumptions about offense and defense, turn them into an average yardage differential, set TOM to 0* and proceed with your projection.
*For the last time (yeah, right) predicting TOM is a fool’s errand and that's coming from a guy that LOVES trying to predict stuff. Go ahead and try but you’re wasting precious time that could be used to make more worthwhile assumptions.
|3 Factor Model||2 Factor Model|
I know this model is simple but that’s part of it charm: you can do this math in your head. Take your yardage differential, round by 5, divide by 5, move the decimal two spots to the left, add 50% and ADJUST BY 10 PERCENT (will never get over that) for each net turnover. I appreciate the sophistication of college level analysis but I was way smarter in elementary school. Arithmetic is where its at, homies.
I think there are two main applications of the model: expectation setting and benchmarking. This diary is long to I’ll split the benchmarking bit off into a different diary.
All fans want to know the same thing: how good are we going to be this year? Sensibly, we start at the end of last year then plug any holes left behind by attrition and arrive at an expectation of X because, naturally. I have no beef with that process because its a whole lot of fun, but you need to have the right starting point. BMM is handy for this. Here’s how local schools of interest did last year:
|OYDS||DYDS||TOM||NYDS||2012 Wins||BMM Expect||Delta Wins|
This year’s prize for Most Dissonant Record goes to: Ohio State. Plus 4, folks. Thirteen years of data has only seen that feat accomplished 8 times out of over 1500 total observations. Fun Fact: that is the third time OSU has managed to post a +4 during that period: 2002, 2003, 2012. In 2004 they posted a +3 followed by +2 in 2005 and 2006…wtf, man? Tresselball, that’s wtf. Ball Control offense, good to great defense, low risk play calling. Jim Tressel hates math, Q.E.D.
I submit that the extended deviation is the offense’s “fault” because when you have good/great defense, you generate yardage differential by racking up yards on offense. What are you going to do, allow 0 yards per game? So I think the Tresselball offensive philosophy explains why Ohio State consistently defied the math for so long. Once the Buckeyes started stock piling national level talent and opened up their offense to leverage it a little more, their performance lined up with the model just fine. Until last year.
Look, I expect Ohio State to be a formidable opponent as usual but, #2 in the country they ain’t; at least not right now. Well, they are a deuce just a different kind of deuce, nameen? Shout out, to my local head start program. Anyway, Urban Meyer’s Florida teams leveled off at 450 ypg and I think OSU offense will be there this year. Yeah, yeah ESS EEE SEE defenses (!) but OSU’s roster isn’t Florida circa 2008 either. The typical B1G defense is OK all things considered, not great but not necessarily a pushover either. Braxton Miller is good but he has some work to do in his passing game, I need to see it first. I’m sticking at 450 OYDS. 475 is on the table but, show me.
Defensively, nothing has really changed at Ohio State. Coaches, recruiting, philosophy, nothing. Well, tatgate happened. During the tatgate era Ohio State’s defense was insane: 300 DYDS or better, often much better (275 or lower), every year between 2005 and 2010. Then, oops, back to typical (about 325 for them). I hereby grant them reasonable improvement on defense from last year out of the goodness of my heart and they end up at NYDS = 100. That’s 9 wins, with a shot at 10. I’d hate to see them get unlucky, truly.
Meanwhile, in Michigan
I’ll take the more straight forward part first, the defense. Not that its clear or easy just that, because of the reactive nature of defense, I think the best policy is to look at a program’s track record, give consideration to any systemic and roster issues that might exist, and call it a verse.
Rich Rodriguez era notwithstanding, Michigan’s Defense has been pretty consistent by the singular measure of DYDS. With competent coaching and a Michigan caliber roster, we typically hang out in the 300 – 350 zone; last couple of years we were at 325. Now Greg Mattison is pretty good but to start breaking through to the next level of defensive prowess and start heading toward elite, I think Michigan needs more experience and maybe a touch more raw talent. Jordan Kovacs will be missed but Heininger Certainty Principal, jack. I’m sticking with a base expectation of 350 – 325 for that side of the ball. Anything better than that would be kind of amazing.
Offense is trickier, especially with the loss of Darboh. Its no revelation to say that Michigan’s offense should take a step forward this year with more harmony between conductor and orchestra so it’s correct to expect more than average OYDS this year, but how much more? Since 2000, Al Borges has never called an offense better than about 425 (Auburn 2004). Indiana put up a 450-ish in the B1G last year so it’s possible and Michigan has better talent on its roster right this minute than Indiana does, but I don’t think we have an offensive philosophy like Kevin Wilson’s either. And we don't have the talent / experience overall to simply out-execute everybody like Alabama does(450 last year). Let’s build it up from one more level down just to make sure.
I’m on record for Devin to pass for 225 to 250 ypg this season. The loss of Darboh gives pause, but I’m not backing off on that. So, getting to 425 means we need 175-200 ypg rushing from the backfield. That’s where we were last year with Denard featuring heavily in the run game. Fitz was a different back seemingly reverting back to 2011 form with Devin under center but then there was that leg thing. I’m going to forget about the leg thing and the questions re: the interior line (thou shalt not accuse me of not being generous) and give Fitz 1000 yds on the year leaving about a 100 - 125 ypg gap to get to the desired rushing target. Y’all think I’m crazy but I think we need to get about 50 ypg out of Devin on the ground to get to an offensive performance level that will keep us from freaking out unless one of the other RBs emerge to provide 600 – 700 yards on the year.
I can’t convince myself to go over Auburn 2004 and that’s being generous. What’s the Borges version of HCP? Even without the questions vis-a-vis the running game, going over 425 probably demands Devin the Monster and a Adrian Peterson level recovery from Fitz and Al Borges’s best offense ever. Again, things happen but I’d be kind of amazed if that happened. You can’t outrun your canons; you acquire new ones. That’s possible, but humans are some stubborn mofos. 400 – 425.
BMM says: 8 or 9 wins with a shot to win 10. If you think Michigan can get to a TOM of +0.7, shift your expectations up by 1 win, then go take your meds.
The Road to Indy
Legends division looks pretty tough this year. Nebraska has a lot coming back and has TOM mean reversion working for them. MSU got unlucky in close games and stands to see at least modest improvement on offense to compliment an elite defense returning virtually intact. Northwestern doesn’t really look as good as last year’s record to me and they had a nice TOM working for them last year; they’re on reversion watch. And their schedule is brutal. Still, the Wildcats are pesky.
The two most important games on the schedule occur November 2 and 9 (duh). Win both and we’re probably in the B1G title game. If we split those, we’re likely to be in a tie with Michigan State or Nebraska possibly both going into The Game which we will have to go all out to win.
So my wife and I just returned from halftime at Highland's first game. There was some ominous lightning in the area and it had just started raining.
At any rate, Bryan Mone looked pretty good to my untrained eye. Through the half he had 4 tackles (there was a facemask penalty on one of those) and 1 sack. He played both ways but got breathers when he was on defense. He played most of the game at DT and RG but got a few reps in at DE. The sack came when he was playing DE on a 3 man line. It looked like he used a shoulder slap to knock the tackle off balance and then just blew by him and threw the QB down.
Most (if not all) of the tackles came at DT where he just blew through the line and ate the RB. Surprisingly the guys he was going against on the other team weren't that much smaller than him (the tackle in particular was larger than him) but they didn't look nearly as athletic. He also chased to the sidelines full bore so I'm not worried about his motor.
At guard he looked pretty good from what I could tell. But the defense he was going against was one of the stranger ones I've seen. It looked like 5 or 6 man lines with the DT's split wide and a LB in between them at the LOS. Most of the time Bryan was just destroying that poor LB... I laughed several times and my wife asked what I was cracking up about. So I pointed it out to her and she started laughing as well. Not sure what they were going for there but it wasn't working.
Lastly, the article posted today mentioned how he describes himself as mean and nasty (I think anyway) and I can verify that. He got into it a few times with one of the other team's DT's and watching him just mercilessly destroy that LB over and over was enough evidence for me.
Wish I could have watched the whole game but as I said it was getting nasty out. Thankfully my wife loves high school football so I'm sure I'll make it to another game or two. We might try to go see the DE that Michigan is recruiting next year who's name escapes me at the moment as well.