I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
I saw on another diary that people were talking about Ezeh's game and I thought it'd be interesting to see who people thought were the best 5 and worst 5 today.
1. Denard: Duh! 3 TDs and 0 turnovers. He averaged 7.38 yards per play (502 total yards / (40 passes + 28 runs), which is just sick. Stretched ND out and put pressure on ND's defense. Forced the safeties to come down allowing 1 on 1 coverage outside. I had a ton of confidence he'd drive down the field and score when we needed a TD late.
2. Roh/Martin/RVB Combo: Constantly got to the 3 QBs. Even when we sent just 3. Even on the 95 yard TD throw these 3 forced Crist to move his feet and allowed Michigan to drop 8 into coverage. Unless I am incorrect most of the game Roh put his hand down, which is pretty interesting and probably in response to ND's spread offense. Martin blew up his double team at least 50% of the time, RVB knocked down numerous passes and chased down Allen when he ran to the right, and Roh burned the LT time and time again. They helped create 2 of the turnovers, knocked the QB down and just made sure the QBS were never really comfortable in the pocket.
3. Mouton: Huge momentum turning pick. Good job reading the QBs and dropping deep into zone coverage. Very few open targets across the middle for ND. Had a couple of huge hits and helped blitz the quarterback successfully. Seems to really be stepping it up. Only had a couple of plays where his aggressiveness took him out of position.
4. GERG Robinson: Not only did he decide (correctly) to move Roh up front but he also decided that those 3 could handle the OL most of the time. He also clearly went after Crist on the first drive and while ND did score on that drive, they clearly knocked him out before the TD sneak. On the 2 big touchdowns he had guys in that area and clearly had the right protection/coverage on. Players just messed up. Did a good job with what he had. Also, decided to not let the RBs beat them. Especially when Crist got knocked out. Held Floyd to 66 yards (and 0 TDs) and 4.8 yards per carry.
5. Kovacs and Thomas Gordon: Kovacs had a great pick and almost grabbed another. He got beat a couple of times but nothing deep. Barely heard him or Thomas Gordon mentioned, which is a great thing for a safety. Gordon was impressive, had a nice sack, and some big hits. He also never got beat deep. Very good first start for him. I think we might see a 2 0 2 out of him on the UFR.
* Disclaimer: While I might list these guys as the worst 5 I do realize that they are all kids and I am not attacking them personally. It's just my observation and yes I do realize that I couldn't touch 1 of these guys as a football player.
1. Gibbons: You can't miss 2 mid-range FGs. 1/4 on the year is bad. This game reminded me of Washington from 2002. You can't miss a FG within 40 yards in a game like this, nevermind twice. He clearly has a good leg, now we need some accuracy. I know he's a RS Freshman, but he has 1 job to do, make FGs. With that said, he did a good job on kickoffs.
2. Gordon: I know he's young and not a natural FS but you can't let anyone behind you when you are the last line of defense. I was hoping his size and WR skills would let him pick off the 95 yard TD pass. He seems like he doesn't trust his skills yet. He jumped on the 53 yard TD but was well short of the ball (and let Jones behind him). At the end of the first half he also completely ignored the wheel route and helped double team the seam route, leaving Riddick wide open for Montana. ND should have gotten 3 here. So (and I hate writing this) about 17 points are on him. I really know he has the talent and size to be good at that spot. He just needs to realize he is the last guy back and give up a 20 yard catch instead of going for the pick. That or actually get the pick.
3. Omameh: Another bad game. Really did a bad job in my mind. He got pushed around and picked up dumb penalties. Our middle 3 didn't do great but Molk and Shilling at least blocked their guy 90% of the time. Omameh getting blown up constantly killed the inside draw on the QB read. He also slowed up Molk, not allowing him to slip to the 2nd level, meaning the ND LBs got more shots on Denard then they should have. The third and inches stop was on him and Molk getting beat back. 3rd and inches. AHHH.
4. Banks/Sagesse: It's not what they did, it's what they didn't do. When one of these guys was up front instead of RVB or Martin the D-line did nothing. We had tons of pressure when they weren't on and it disappeared when we subbed on one of these guys. They just don't have the pass rushing skills that the other 3 do, which I think is why GREG kept them off the field as much as possible. We need them to be better from here on out. We'll need to be able to sub for Martin and RVB when we are playing teams like Wisconsin and OSU.
5. Christian: 1 play and 1 huge mistake. Yeah, the shot wasn't hard and the guy was just barely out but you can't do that. I know he's really young and super excited to be out there playing, but he can't take a personal foul there then. The play goes from a so-so 15 yards gained to 30. ND moved from the 42 to the 27. From the 42 ND might not be able to get the ball into the endzone besides just throwing it up. There are plenty of college passes that gain 27 yards. Changes the chances of success from 1 in 50 (god damn you Kordell) to 1 in what 15? 20? Big difference, especially when it's Michigan-ND, and we have Rich Rod's luck.
Author's note: This started out as a response to Boyz n da Pahokee's 'Monster Saturday' Hype Video, but it quickly expanded into something that might have a bit more value. Given the democratization of video production thanks to cheap HD handi-cams, somewhat usable OS-baked-in edit software and free distribution channels like YouTube and Vimeo, web video has exploded lately. This season has seen an up-tick of user-generated media, so I hope this will be useful for the rest of the season.
Hello all, I am professor MGauxBleu. You may remember me from such ironic-kitsch, sadly-relevant and oft front-paged photoshop collages such as Never Forget:
If my computer hadn't exploded, I would have added Van Slyke and Vlad the Transferor to this by now...
Or sadly-derivative DB Hope poster featuring a pseudo-defensive Kelvin Grady:
I am here to transmit some of my film school learnings to the MGoMasses. I am going to make some suggestion for all you future hype video editors. Believe it or not, the moving picture has its own language. This primarily affects editing, which really is the most important aspect of putting a video/movie/film together. If you were shooting your own footage, then the same rules would apply as you plan your shot composition as well as editing. If you are just grabbing other footage, apply these rules to your initial selection of said footage. Follow these rules and people will be psychologically sucked into your video, regardless of what else is going on [though your content will still determine the final impact]. Breaking these rules is what makes "lo-budget" seem crappy.Trust me, your audience will have no idea why they feel the way the do, but the effect is real. We say cinematic language for two reasons: 1) we like to think about "reading a film" just to sound pretentious and 2) because these rules and their use really mimic grammar usage.
Note about the videos: I did not make this video, just citing mgvideo's latest offering. I have tried to queue each video to the right time, but keyframes are a bitch. Just watch the shot I am referencing then pause when the shot changes. No need to watch that whole video a bunch of times.
Screen direction: If you are cutting for a left-to-right reading audience, put things you like—Michigan—on the left side of the screen facing the right. Put things you don't like—opponents, priests, Freakbass—on the right facing left. Hollywood always does this, so that is one of the reasons why you always know who the bad guy is in a movie even from his first shot.
My suggestion: Pick shots of Michigan players moving from left to right, or framed screen left. For drives, Michigan moving left-to-right. Opposite for the opposition. This is a quick rule because then the networks will do your job for you—they will instictually compose shots that look good and follow the rules.
It is composition, not his strange outlook on contraception, that make Jesus so foreboding in this shot.
DRob is heroic, even in warm-ups.
Screen direction, part 2: Things that move from top-to-bottom or left-to-right feel natural and good. Things that move from bottom-to-top or right-to-left feel unnatural and introduce tension. Michigan driving left-to-right, or TRob streaking from top-left to bottom-right = inevitable huge play. Michigan driving right-to-left, or player cutting upwards through the frame is tense; you are not sure if how this is going to turn out but it seems bad.
My suggestion: This is pretty much the same rule as above, but I wanted to emphasize motion through the frame differently. Bonus: A sack will seem extra crushing coming from the left, especially the top.
Aside: if your audience is based in right-to-left reading—Yiddish, for example—or top-to-bottom—Japanese—adjust the above two rules accordingly. Again, things that mimic reading eye motion feel easy and natural; the opposite direction feels difficult and creates tension. Gravity, being universal, means that downward motion = good/easy, upward = bad/hard/tense.
Aside 2: I don't recommend it, but if you super careful, you can "flop" a shot, flip it so that something that is on the right side is switched to the left. Short shots are probably fine, and this isn't up for an academy award, so take my caution with a grain of salt. However, since I am anal and aesthetically sensitive, I would never ever everflop an iconic shot. If people have seen it a million times they will know when it doesn't look right. It will create unease, which likely was the opposite of what you wanted.
Obvious TRob HUGE PLAY
Literally running down hill.
Think Tay scores here?
Nope. A very "tough" play where he guts out every yard.
Graphical matches: If you can effectively cut adjacent shots so that a line can be drawn naturally from your main subject in shot A to main subject in shot B, your audience will jump into the second shot more quickly. Quick is important because we are talking about montages full of short clips; any time trying to "decode" the shot is time not spent getting the point of why you included it.
Add this rule to 2 above to get cut-on-action. Edits tend to be less visible if the audience has something in motion to follow from shot A into shot B. In narrative, this often means that you transition from outside a space inside by cutting at the mid-point of the entrance, showing a little motion in each shot. But this action needs to match graphically to be fully effective.
My suggestion: Perhaps ignore this initially. It is less obvious and harder to convey in text than the other points, but logically, it fits here in the order I am presenting. If you master everything else, watch your cut with this in mind and see if it "feels right" or not. If not, something might be strange about how your eye transitions between shots.
Color: Good guy is in white, bad guys in black. This rule has some very famous exceptions, but that too has a message. Dirty Harry, while technically the hero, is not a good person. He can be in black all he wants once it is established that he is the protagonist (in this case, just being played by Clint Eastwood is establishment enough.) Consistency is probably more important here than sticking with the light = good, dark = bad. More about that below.
My (very light) suggestion: Michigan in road whites when possible, opponents in home darks.
Time to molest the boys!
Consistency: Once you have established one of the above, or even other conventions, try to stick with it. If both teams have similar colors, then flip-flopping their home and roads will make it harder to follow along. As mentioned above, your shots will likely be so brief that your audience will spend too long trying to figure who they are watching without getting enough time to figure out what you are trying to convey. The obvious X factor in football hype vids are the helmets. Most of the time helmets will be unique by team, but also each team will always be wearing the same ones.
My suggestion: If you feel like you have some momentum early in your piece, stick with it. Your vid will build and your audience will stay engaged. If you happen to be an Oregon fan, good fucking luck. Twenty-five million uniform combinations are not your friends, though, you can take solace in the fact that your team will always be the worst looking one in the video. I guess that counts for consistency...
Break the rules: If you had all the resources in the world, you could follow this to a T. However, that isn't going to happen. So, do what you have to. That ridiculous one-handed Woodson pick in East Lansing is iconic and will work no matter how many rules it may seem to break. Additionally, if I were cutting a hype video for OSU week, I would probably keep UM in home darks and and have OSU in white. We want to be hard in that game and the dark will keep the edge on. Further, OSU's red unis say a lot—blood, violence, even some regal tones. These are not things I want establishing about OSU. Additionally, Brandon Graham, Woodley, guys like that are dangerous, murderous battering rams of death in my videos. They would always be in dark blue if I could help it.
There are some other basic things I could cover here, and some slightly more advanced stuff, but I think that this is enough for now. One "tip" that I have not included is: HAVE A DAMN POINT. This is not a tip, it is a must. Every video should have a story line. ESPN's actual game coverage is master of this, even if it is annoying. For ND and OSU the storyline is obvious: HATE. For MSU, I would focus on the fact that they are clown shoes. Other teams may have less historic stories, so you may focus on one element of the game. For instance, god forbid Denard go down at some point, you could cut a video of the likely starter to emphasize that the game rests on said player. If John Clay is averaging 225 YPG coming in, I would focus on him being a beast and us destroying ball carriers to setup that as the most important question of the day: Monster world crushing running back or our run defense, who will come out on top?
If you are thinking of trying your hand at a hype video, watch the 96 tiny vignettes that the networks put together before and during the game. The canned pre-game ones tend to focus on what ever ESPN has been hyping all week/season [Tebow]. In game ones tend to be game recaps. Even if they aren't showing every big play of the game, the will tend to represent the essence. If it is a whooping, expect the team coverage to be one-sided. It will be a little more even if it is a dog fight.
Down with OPP - not what you might think - I'm going for Other People's Pressers... Get it? Do ya?? If I have the time, I'll try to do this for all the upcoming opponent press conferences during game week. I mean, I've already come up with a snazzy name for it and everything. No sense in wasting it now! I'm going to try to go by theme, not necessarily following the questions in chronological order, fyi.
These are my key takeaways from the Brian Kelly press conference on Wednesday, Sept 8. For your reference, the full transcript can be found here:
On Denard Robinson:
Althought Marve was athletic, very different from Denard (duh). "They're setting up the run obviously for him. You're running quarterback iso," and that "He's going to be the focal point of the running game."
He makes mention of the "zone read" in a couple of spots. Apparently, Purdue pulled Marve at one point for another guy (I think a WR who played some QB in HS, although don't know who) in order to run a read option.
Oh, when they ran the read option. Oh, very similar. Yeah, there are some similarities to that scheme. Obviously we didn't handle that very well. So we'll clearly spend a little more time on that. But there are some similarities to the read that Purdue went to when they brought the other quarterback in.
Has a couple of guys on the scout team they're looking at to play the role of Denard in practices, but that "[he doesn'nt] know that you ever can prepare for Denard Robinson at the same speed that he plays."
On their defense:
On defending the Michigan defense, particularly with the schemes and style of play, he says the foundation is always going to be getting the "assignment correct when you play a team that has certainly some of the instruments of options within its package." He also say that, "you wouldn't think blitzing would be the first call of duty when you play a team like this."
On the defensive capabilities and schemes, he says they "needed to play a structure of defense that pulls together all of the basics of good defense. That is containing the football, gap integrity, great tackling." I immediately wondered what that says about the philosophy or coaching compared to the prior regime, and he actually responds to a question about this later on:
I don't know what they did or didn't do last year. I didn't spend much time analyzing. I didn't know what we wanted to do. And certainly one of our goals defensively is to minimize big plays. So call structure, all of those things are talked about from day one back before we got here in December. That is clearly the message.
Then he again mentions "Good fundamentals." Just sayin'.
On adjusting to Purdue's switch to the read option look, suggested they were a little caught off guard the first time, but that they adjusted "the next series and we were prepared for anything if they went into that as an offense."
Mentioned that they only gave up one play over 20 yards all day - a 23 yd TD.
On their offense:
He has some weird 88%/12% metric he uses to measure on-field success. I guess it's a little higher target than your typical 80/20 rule? Anyway, I don't really get it, but he calls out penalties and ball security as the two biggest things he looks at.
I generally focus on those two things from an offensive standpoint. If we hit those two, we're generally in a position to do some good things. To me it's as important as anything offense.
On time of possession, he said he played an up-tempo, outscore-your-opponents style at Cincy, although not because he likes that style. Look for them to be more "traditional" in terms of the tempo at which their offense operates.
I don't like to play that way, but it was the way we needed to play. I would certainly like to play the game and manage the game in a more textbook fashion, if you will. And that is relative to the time of possession and keeping your defense off the field, and making sure they operate in the long field.
Other random notes:
On the rivalry: "I've never prepared football teams in a manner that we focus on a particular rivalry. But this is all eggs in one basket. I try to keep a steady enthusiastic to approach to every game. ... I respect the history and tradition of it. But what I really used was our guys, letting them know that this team's going to be ready for you. Same thing with Michigan, same thing with Purdue, and every team that we're going to play with that rivalry so they have historical respect that and we're going to focus on ourselves.
On injuries: "Shembo, (Darius) Fleming, fine. No issues there. Had some cramping. Slaughter, we were concerned after the game of the quote unquote high ankle sprain. Found out that wasn't the case. He's been in rehab the past 48 hours, we'll take him out of the walking boot and get him moving today. Some precursors to really an evaluation would be very minimal swelling and emotion. Positive signs I'm not ready to say he's going to be 100% for Saturday, but some of the signs point toward someone who is making good progress. That is it for injuries."
On his relationship with RR: "We also have the same financial advisor, so that probably makes us really close friends. Rich and I know each other, and I have respect rich for the work that he's done. We don't get a chance to see each other in the off season. We've both got young families that we're chasing around. But I know rich very well, and obviously we have some friends in Butch Jones as well."
On recruits visiting for the game: "I think it's important, there is no question. Winning helps it. There is no question about that. The experience at Notre Dame, getting a chance to be around a game day atmosphere is the most important thing for these young men that are going to be making arguably the biggest decision of their lives. So, yes, we are holding a recruiting weekend. We think that the experience of game day for them is really very important in the process."
Over at the JCB, I have been trying out a new schtick where I come up with mock prop bets on stats, storylines and underrated keys to the game that certain post is previewing. I did team previews for some Big 10 teams in this style and have carried it over to certain games now that the season has started. I intend on doing this for as many Michigan games as I can and I will publish them here, where my blogging career started, the MGoDiaries. As one of the first brave souls to piece together diaries once Brian modified his site, this will always be home for me, even as the JCB grows in popularity.
So, I have concocted four prop bets for tomorrow that I think are worthy to track as whether or not they go voer or under will help tell the tale of latest classic in the ND/Michigan series. We could turn this into a game, wager with MGoPoints and just keep track as well go along. Bragging rights are important in Blogrifica, after all.
BUT. If you want to play in a real contest venture over to the blog and play the Pick-4. It's free, some folks may have a jump start on you from playing a week ago, but there will more than enough chances to make up ground as we'll up the scoring values as we get later in the year. Did I say it was free? It is. And, while prizes are of yet unidentified, there will be some bounty for the winning souls come seasons end.
With that promo out of the way, place your bets on the following:
Armando Allen, Rushing Yards: O/U 85.5 yards
Notre Dame's senior running back has a world of talent, but he has not really had a game breaking career to this point. He only has 4 career 100-yard games. One of those came a year ago against the Wolverines, where he rushed for a career high 139 yards. At over 6 yards per carry a year ago in Ann Arbor, it begs the question again what Charlie Weis was doing throwing bombs on their final drive instead of powering with Allen to keep the clock running and getting that game clinching first down. To start the 2010 season, Allen paced a nice 1-2 punch at tailback with Cierre Woods a week ago against Purdue with 98 yards while Woods added 63. We're all rightfully worried about who in the world will cover Michael Floyd and whether or not he'll go off for eleventy-billion yards on one of our unsuspecting corners. But to me, every defensive effort this year has to begin with stoning the run. It's an obvious storyline heading into this contest. Teams were running 50 times a game against Michigan a year ago because they could. Now teams might also try doing this just to keep the ball out of Denard's hands. Regardless, if Michigan does not get gashed by opposing rushing attacks, they will win games this year. As for this game, if they keep Allen in check, I like their chances. But, if he hits the century mark again, I feel that Michigan will likely lose. As for 85.5 number, it's the actual prop bet real oddsmakers have set for Allen's production.
Michigan Points In The Red Zone, O/U 20.5
One of the biggest matchups of the game is how the Michigan offense performs against the Leprechauns hiding amidst the tall grass in the red zones of Notre Dame Stadium. These hidden Leprechauns have jumped up like gramlins over the years to thwart would be Michigan scoring drives against the Irish. These bad boys are worse than the Ypsi Illuminati. Michigan was terrible in scoring range a year ago, ranking as one of the worst teams in the league in red zone efficiency and points per trip. Historically against the Irish, they've always had bugaboos conspire against them agaisnt them once they get into scoring range. We can probably trace this back to the interception Elvis Grbac threw to a wide open Michael Stonebreaker in the end zone just as Michigan was about to put the nail in the Irish's coffin during the 1990 tilt, an eventual 28-24 Notre Dame win. And, it's continued. Tom Brady marched the Wolverines up and down field during the first half of his first ever career start in 1998, but Michigan had to settle for four field goal attempts, one of which they shanked. The Irish dominated the second half and won. The same formula added up for a Michigan loss in 2004 in Chad Henne's first start against the Irish. Michigan outdid themselves in 2005 when a record 215 trips in the red zone led to zero points. As recently as 2008, a fumble as Michigan was plowing into the end zone ended all hope for a Michigan win over Notre Dame. This series is dead even at five apiece in the last 10 matches, but if Michigan had only been competent in the red zone against the Irish over this time, they would have an overwhelming series advantage. So here we have another Michigan QB making his first start in South Bend. Greatness preceded him in the form of Grbac, Brady and Henne. Yet, all of them struggled to find the end zone once inside the red zone. Can Denard deliver? Maybe the offense scores a bunch of points from long range, minimizing red zone trips. Who knows? That's why they call it gambling.
Notre Dame Passing Attack, Yards Per Completion: O/U 10.70
Who here is worried that Michael Floyd might be the best player on the field tomorrow? I am. So much so that I cant bring myself to set a total for his total yards. I fear a 200-yard day and a maschostic venture into the history books to see how close it is to a record against Michigan That is if Tom Hammond hasnt gleefully announced it to me already on the game broadcast with the verve he usually reserves for exciting tales of horse geneology. As it turns out, the oddsmakers have actually set an O/U total for Floyd: O/U 88.5 yards. That seems low. I might hit that Over and maybe not wince as much each time he shreds the Michigan defense. I dont see how Floyd doesnt top the century mark. As long as he doesnt have a monster, record book type of day they can absorb a good fantasy football output from the Irish's stud wideout.
I thought about doing an over/under for eventual +/- number for the secondary in Brians' UFR. But I'm too impatient to wait until middle next week for results. Besides, I'm still a little confused of what to make of the +7 they racked up against the Huskies a week ago. James Rogers, your table is ready, sir. I've soothed my nerves on this game most of the last month by convincing myself that it was 100 percent, no questions asked a good thing that none of the four starters in the secondary who were clocked by the Irish a year ago will be in the lineup tomorrow. We'll find out how delusional I've been in about 24 hours. BUT DID YOU SEE THAT +7!!!!
The stat we're playing with instead is yards per completion. A year ago, the Jimmy Claussen carved Michigan up to the tune of more than 13.5 per catch. That's top shelf. Anything between 10-12 yards is doing really well and will give you an offensive leg up all day. Denard Robinson was just a smidge under 10 a week ago. As for Notre Dame, Dayne Crist hit for 10.7 yards per completion against Purdue. I feel if he's around that number again, Michigan has a strong chance at winning. I dont think they could approach a number like last year's onslaught and expect to come out ahead.
Total Michigan Running Backs Over 50 yards: O/U 1.5
This is a werid prop. We can reasonably assume Denard Robinson will be the team's leading rusher. But, they need some more balance and a bit more production from their tailbacks. But, this also gives me an opportunity to skewer my fellow blogger Magnus. It's a banner week for Magnus as I an not the only one delivering him a pink slip over his analysis of the opening day win for Michigan. Over at Touch the Banner, he graded the Michigan tailbacks as 'only average' for the day and elsewhere on his blog and within threads on this site, he's always first in line to trash, in particular, Vincent Smith. Magnus admits he didnt watch the whole game on Saturday, which is obvious because he clearly didnt see what I saw in person. I saw hard running out of both Michael Shaw and Smith. Frankly, it was the best Shaw has looked in his Michigan career. Was he perfect? Hardly. This team still cant afford a bunch of mistakes and that 11-yard loss he took was a terrible play. However, throw that play out and he had 15 touches for 75 yards. I fail to see how this is bad production. After dropping a pass in the spring game that would have been a big gainer, he caught the only ball thrown to him Saturday and scooted for 16 yards, running hard and fast the whole way. His elusiveness and determined running turned a lot of possible tackles near the line of scrimmage into 5 yard gains. As for Smith, I still dont understand what Magnus fails to see. That TD run he had in the first quarter was a great run that reminded this Michigan historian a little of Jamie Morris and Mike Hart. He has scored touchdowns in three straight games now against Wisconsin, Ohio State and UConn. Somehow this is bad. By the way, I'm throwing a little down on the following prop: Will Vincent Smith score a TD? A Yes bet pays out at +130. I'll ride it. Also, both Shaw and Smith proved to be good blockers throughout the day. Smith hammered a UConn defender, helping to free up Denard's 32-yard TD run to make it 14-0. I guess Magnus wasnt satisfied with that play since Smith didnt officially Pancake block him. Anyway, Magnus, stop hating on Vinnie Smith. This kid is a player. And, he's scored four of the program's last 7 touchdowns. It's time for you to get on board. The A-Train is not walking through that door, my friend.
So those are my fake props for the game. What say you, Over or Under? And for fun, I'm going to list the current player props available at sportsbook.com for tomorrow's game
Longest TD of the game (either team) O/U 49.5 yards
Denard Total Completions O/U 16.5
Denard Total Rushes O/U 20.5
Will Vinnie Smith Score A TD: Yes +130, No -140
Stonum Catches O/U 4
Koger Catches O/U 2.5
Crist Total Completions O/U 21.5
What Will Crist Throw First: TD -200, INT +160
Allen Rushing Yards O/U 85.5 yards
Floyd Receiving Yards O/U 88.5 yards
Rudolph Catches, O/U 4.5
Michigan Total Points O/U 24
Notre Dame Total Points, O/U 28
Place your bets. This book accepts MGoPoints
Also, dont forget to play the Pick-4!!!!!
We are continuing with Part 2 of the Q & A session with THE KNOWLEDGE; aka the PROFILE OF THE KNOWLEDGE. This is the conclusion of the two-part interview. Part 1 will be published later (in a week or two).
Question #5: That was a great response! Now, what the last time you soared and basked in glory?
Reply of THE KNOWLEDGE:
THE KNOWLEDGE soars more often than he cares to remember. The latest episode came just this Monday
THE KNOWLEDGE had said on these very pages that the BS Broncos will reach the National Championship, where they will lose to the Michigan Wolverines. THE KNOWLEDGE had also mentioned this eventuality to other groups
When it appeared that VT may come from behind and win the game, THE KNOWLEDGE started getting several messages from those that still doubt THE KNOWLEDGE, proclaiming the failure of THE KNOWLEDGE’s predictions
THE KNOWLEDGE replied to all of them with one word: “Ha!”
Of course, when BS won the game proving the accuracy of THE KNOWLEDGE yet again
THE KNOWLEDGE soared, leaving every doubter in a trail of dust
Question #6: You have recently announced THE KNOWLEDGE CHALLENGE. Please provide more details about this great contest. Also enlighten us as to the rules and perks of the contest.
Reply of THE KNOWLEDGE:
The KNOWLEDGE CHALLENGE is the most exciting contest anyone can hope to compete in. This is an opportunity for THE KNOWLEDGE’s fans to think like THE KNOWLEDGE and predict the score of the upcoming Michigan game. THE KNOWLEDGE has announced this challenge to exponentially increase the excitement on these very pages
And most importantly, the winner gets to be THE KNOWLEDGE’S PROTÉGÉ OF THE WEEK. This is an extraordinary honor and the next-to-greatest achievement anyone can attain on this blog. The greatest honor, of course, will be the title THE KNOWLEDGE’S FRIEND that will be bestowed upon the most consistent performer at the end of the season
The reward for being chosen as THE KNOWLEDGE’S FRIEND will be announced later
- THE KNOWLEDGE will post a thread each week a day or two before the game, giving pointers to the game. THE KNOWLEDGE will, obviously, not reveal the score the game beforehand.
- Since may people post many useless threads, THE KNOWLEDGE’s thread maybe pushed from the front page. Hence, people are encouraged to look for older threads, and locate THE KNOWLEDGE’s thread to post their predictions
- In the event of a tie, there will be a short essay competition to determine THE KNOWLEDGE’S PROTÉGÉ OF THE WEEK
Question #7: What do you like about MGoBlog, and why do you post here?
Reply of THE KNOWLEDGE:
This blog is an outstanding example of the success of entrepreneurship in this country. This shows that, with talent and hard work, you can achieve great success with something as simple as a sports blog
That is what THE KNOWLEDGE likes the best about this blog
THE KNOWLEDGE also likes the readership of this blog; hence, THE KNOWLEDGE posts here to keep people informed of future happenings to the sports teams of his alma mater
Question #8: Finally, please talk about your record at Michigan Stadium, and your favorite food.
Reply of THE KNOWLEDGE:
THE KNOWLEDGE has attended 17 games at Michigan Stadium, starting with the 1999 season opener against Notre Lame. The last game attended by THE KNOWLEDGE was the MSU game in 2006
Michigan’s record in the presence of THE KNOWLEDGE is 17-0
For example, the only game THE KNOWLEDGE attended in the 2005 season was the PSU game
Therefore, the presence of THE KNOWLEDGE = victory for Michigan
THE KNOWLEDGE is a strict vegetarian, who doesn’t like animals alive or dead. THE KNOWLEDGE’s favorite food is honey
So, there you go folks. The best profile you can ever read.
Participate in THE KNOWLEDGE CHALLENGE and have great fun!
And remember, THE KNOWLEDGE has confirmed that Michigan will defeat the BS Broncos in this year’s Natl Championship game. So, watch the games without much anxiety; since you know the results already.
This may or may not be a running series based on time constraints and feedback.
Legitimate scouting of an offense should have 2-4 of the most recent games, but only one has been played. Online video sources efficient for scouting purposes are hard to come by, as well. The bitTorrents take 8-10 hours to receive with my computer and NBC.com (which I used) made me want to kill myself. The need to constantly rewind for 5-10 seconds with poor tools is beyond tedious (Tom Hammond didn’t help). TV is also notorious for cutting important information out of the shot and, where this occurred, I didn’t record data.
- If you enjoy this and know a way to get full game video quickly please let me know.
A Few Disclaimers
- The focus was on data and not particular players’ ability. I didn’t watch anything trying to figure out how good a particular player or position group is. Regardless, I picked up some things that I note at the bottom.
- I recorded 56 total plays, stopping when they were up 23-12 and bleeding clock
- I link to my own site to explain some terms utilized.
- Nominal analytical errors certainly exist, but don’t effect points made in a meaningful way.
The Irish never make analytical errors
2010 Notre Dame Offense vs. Purdue
By Down and Distance
- On 1st and 10, the Irish were 68% run, 32% pass. On all other downs they were 21% run, 79% pass
- On 3rd and 2+, they were 90% 5 Step
- Overall 45% Run, 55% Pass, but you can see where the runs come from
By Field Zone
- Unsurprisingly, the Irish are more conservative inside their own 20. In 5 plays they relied on Power, Play Action, and a Jailbreak screen
- No other meaningful tendencies solely by field position
By Personnel, Backfield, and Formation
(A quick note on Personnel: Rudolph moves around a lot between TE and receiver. I used whichever position he actually lined up in, rather than identifying him as a TE every play.)
- ND most popular backfield is Empty, using 00 Personnel. In 13 plays they used a version of the Trips Open formation (3 x 2) 12 times and Quads Open (4 x 1) once. All plays were 5 Step except one, where they faked a sweep to a player in motion and ran Crist unsuccessfully on a Power.
- In 10 Personnel ND uses a formation I call Detroit. Because the play concepts are similar regardless of backfield, I combined instances of the Gun Near and Gun Far backfields for 14 total plays. 9 were 5 Step, followed by Draws (2), Play Action, Trap, and Inside Zone (1 each).
- From here, things get more interesting. Again in 10 Personnel, ND used Gun Near Trips Open 9 times, 8 of which were runs (6 different zone plays, a Power, and a Draw). When the #3 receiver lines up as a true slot (1 x 1 off the OT, always Rudolph) ND called 4 runs to the weakside and nothing else. Those plays netted 16, 13, 15, and 13 yards, respectively. This could have been solely to exploit a defender or the scheme, but a major tendency nonetheless.
- When the Irish go to 11 Personnel they lined up in Trey Open (Gun Near and Gun Far) for 11 of 12 plays. 9 runs, 3 passes. Runs were balanced between strong/weak.
- The obvious: they throw a lot of 5 step (27 of 56 plays)
- Most popular runs: Power (8), Inside Zone (5), Draw (3), Read Zone (3)
By Passing Zone and vs. Blitz
- Crist threw to the strong or weak curl zone 13 times.
- Of the 7 passes he threw over 15 yards, 2 were complete (+21, +19) and one was called for defensive PI.
- Purdue only blitzed 3 times before the score was 20-3. The Irish handled it at that time (+5, +12, +7). After, Purdue blitzed 8 times netting 2 sacks, 3 incompletions, 1 scramble (for 0 yards), and a safety on a run play. Against the late blitzes, the Irish succeeded once on an Inside Zone run (+18).
- Crist is not a great run threat, but like any QB he can scramble for yards in a pinch
- Floyd will be moved around as necessary to create favorable matchups
- Rudolph, though utilized often, is not a great receiver in terms of measurables. His routes are about as round as a circle and he’s not fast. I didn't see what the hype is about. In the Empty set, ND put him in the weak slot a couple times, had the 3 strong receivers clearout that side and dragged him across for easy yardage. They also hit him 3 times in the weak curl zone for +8, +9, +9.
- Crist audibled into a counter weak for ND’s first TD (+22).
- ND pulls their center or backside tackle often to lead through the hole rather than the backside guard. (Those are some of the plays I labeled Power. Some may disagree with that name, but the concept is the same.)
- Purdue plays a 4-3 and was happy to sit in Cover 2 for almost 50% of all plays. Often a nickel back was in the game replacing the Sam, but serving the same function. The safeties sat at 10-12 pre-snap and weren’t going to let anything over their heads.
- It’s impossible to know how much of ND’s offense is “what they want to do offensively” vs. “what Purdue was allowing.” Michigan played a lot of Cover 3 last week. Based on the the ND scheme and what happened vs. Purdue I’d guess M plays much more Cover 2, Cover 4, Cover 6, and rolls to Cover 3 more often, if employed, to give Crist a different look. I’d also expect M to pressure or show pressure more often than Purdue did, based on how Crist performed against it.
- I didn’t pay too much attention to the RBs because I focused on data, but they are legit. I’m sure Brian will have plenty on them.
- If someone wants my chart, I can try to find a way to put it up.