Diaries

Hello everyone, Six Zero here with the latest installment of: 

SIX QUESTIONS WITH THE SHREDDER

Inspired by the official site’s “Two Minute Drill” series and TomVH’s famous Q&A segments with potential recruits, this new weekly feature highlights some of the more famous personalities here at MGoBlog.  Without pulling back the infamous veil of blog anonymity, we’ll get to know some of your favorite posters better and possibly shed some light on their definition of why it’s so darn Great, To Be, A Michigan Wolverine.

PREVIOUS FEATURES:
TomVH         formerly anonymous        Misopogon

Since the dawn of Man, the artist has played a pivotal role in society, serving to preserve culture, inspire the masses, and express the human condition.  Every great civilization has had its aesthetic authorities, and MGoBlog is no different.  Call it art, call it satire, call it pure Colombian awesome—but whatever you prefer, it’s hard to argue that Shredder’s creations have become some of the most memorable and hilarious sights ever to grace our Blog.  It is my pleasure to present
this interview with the one and only Shredder:

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1.  I think I have a vague recollection of when you first starting posting, and also when “The Shredder’ truly became ‘The Shredder.’  How did you discover MGoBlog, and how long were you a member before finding your calling and developing your signature ‘Midnight Maize’ style?
     Well as much as I don’t want to admit this, I had a melt down and went off on UMGOBLUE board right after the 2005 Alamo Bowl when Tyler Ecker didn’t pitch it back to Steven Breaston. He instead opted for the human bull dozer lunge and went out of bounds at the 15 yard line. I mean, cmon, Steve was right there! Alright I won’t get into it. It’s still a touchy subject for me.  As a result of my verbal beatings on Ecker I was banned from UMGOBLUE board.  I was forumless and had no where to go. As I wandered the internet streets aimlessly looking for a home, I stumbled upon The Mother Ship (My term for Mgoblog)  August 29th, 2006 at 6:00 PM when Brian said:

“A late turnover and constant buggering at the hands of incompetent Sun Belt refs are almost overcome by the most improbable play since Stanford-Cal, but Tyler Ecker plows into two defenders instead of pitching it to Steve Freakin' Breaston.”

      When I read “Steve Freakin’ Breaston” I knew I was home. At first, I did my fair share of lurking.  Finally in August of 2009, I decided to join up. I posted a bit here and there but not much. Then the board became nuts over the huge jumbo HD video screens that lived in SEC country. Everyone was wondering when Michigan would get theirs. I became sick of it and MS Painted the Big House in the year 2025. In all honesty, I expected to be ran off the board for such a crappy outrageous picture but to my delight, it was the exact opposite and my rendition of the Big House Year 2025 became two plus pages of replies and even made it on the front page. Thus, the Shredder rose from the ashes to become the villain that he is today. If you look at that paint you will see how bad it is compared to others but it still seems to be a favorite for some. I have since went on to start Midnight Maize so I could get paid to live blog and have a place to post the art that doesn’t always make it to Mgoblog. I have no doubt that I have Mgoblog to thank for the launching pad.

The Shredder.  Eastman and Laird’s pre-eminent villain for the Heroes on the Half-Shell.  Of all the possibilities, why did you choose him above all else as your name and avatar on MGoBlog?
     I feel like at Mgoblog there are so many great posters, so I needed to find a way to stand out from the crowd. I wanted a name that no one would forget. I didn’t want to be “goblue1982” or “wegotwings.” I wanted something iconic, something that was fierce and had no mercy. My love for movies, video games, comic books and all kinds of media runs pretty deep (if you can’t tell).
     I was pretty close to going with the Cobra Kai master John Crease but then it donned on me that my avatar wouldn’t be that great. I mean sure he looks bad ass but mixing some Michigan elements into it would be tough. I was running through all my favorite movies and comics. My roommate happened to buy me TMNT season one for my birthday that last winter. While looking through my dvds for an idea, I saw that dvd set. I popped in the dvd and The Shredder spoke to me through the TV. Alright, he didn’t literally speak to me, but I realized that he a villain I always had loved as a kid and some one that no one could mistake for anyone else. Another plus is that his helmet looked like the wings from the Michigan helmet. It was a perfect marriage.

 

2.  Tell us about your creative process.  How does a typical Shredder piece evolve from an idea to a front page bump?
     Most of my ideas just come from pop culture. I just try and think how I can blend some sort of pop culture with what’s going on at Michigan. I always just make a quick scribble of it on paper or if I have my laptop I’ll do a quick “sketch” in MS paint. Some of my ideas have come to me when I least expect them to.  For instance, I was at a Game Stop right after the Notre Dame game. I was looking at the new Punch Out game and I thought King Hippo and Charlie Weiss had a lot in common as well as Little Mac and Tate Forcier. When I got home I found the perfect picture on the internet and started to go to work. When it’s done and if I feel its good enough, I will post it on the Mgoboard.   However, there are many things I have MS painted that don’t make it to the board, and they usually just stay on my laptop or get uploaded to Midnight Maize only. I felt the jerseys were a Midnight Maize only post and then I figured what the hell. So you just never know what people will respond to. Some people might love something I find not that great and vice versa.
I can totally relate—I was surprised during my MGoShirt series how difficult it was to predict audience reaction.  Some of my favorite designs were eaten alive, and others that I personally less enthralled by are now sitting in the store.  But art, and especially graphic design, is funny like that.  Audience has the last laugh.

 

3.  Your work has a tongue-in-cheek quality that is often more about the humor than the art itself.  But you’re not fooling me-- as a professional, I can personally see that you put serious time into some of your designs.  What was the single most difficult Shredder MS Paint piece to create?  And of them all, which is your personal favorite?  (Personally, I have to go with the Buckeye OSUbusters.)
     Yes, you are right about the time I put into some of them. There are some that I have whipped together in 15 minutes, but there are have been a couple that have taken me a few nights to complete. My hardest one was “The Game Wars."  I did five MS paints, one for everyday of the week, during OSU week. I worked on all of them throughout the season but that one took the cake for the most work.  It took me a good week and I used another… well I won’t dive into all my secrets but lets just say I needed a bit more muscle to pull off what I was trying to depict. Armando Allen's foot was one that took me no time to complete. I thought nothing big of the quick paint but it ended up on nymag.com in the sports section. You just don’t know where the humor or the art may take you.
     As for my favorites, well that is tough. It’s like asking what kid you love the most.  I like certain ones for all kinds of different reasons. I love the Punch Out ones because I think they may be some of the best stuff I have done as far as looking professional and not hokey. They also ended up on Adam Rittenberg’s ESPN blog so that was an honor in its own right. I even like the SS Troy which has little to do with Michigan and more to do with USC. People really got a kick out of the Seahawkcopter which by itself took longer to complete than the actual artwork as a whole. The Ghostbusters and my Denard Back to the Future pieces have been favs of mine since those are some of my favorite movies. Another favorite of mine would be “Fetuatitus,” the only MS Paint work that got banned on Mgoboard due to people thinking it was a real medical condition that Tate Forcier had on his wrist. One medical student even posted how dumb he felt since he was googling the internet for “Fetuatitus” and found nothing. I guess a large picture of Tate Forcier with a fetus coming off his wrist and riding Falcor from Never Ending Story can be more impactful than I thought.

All right.  Let’s get one point out of the way.  It’s no secret that (ahem) some personalities (ahem, excuse me, something in my throat) have been critical not of your art, but rather your choice of medium as an artist.  Why MS Paint?  Some have argued that your stuff is so cool because it’s made in simplistic style of MS Paint, but I think your work is primarily about good ideas first and visual style second.   Any thoughts?
     My paints are more about what they say rather than how they look. MS Paint makes things so easy and simple. Even if I am slightly limited by it, MS Paint just has this “soul” to it. It expresses me exactly how I see my artistic self…. As a “wannabe”. My mom has the talent and my Grandpa is a painter (mostly nature art) and I have always wanted to possess those artistic talents but never did. I found that MS Paint was a medium that I could use to get my point across without having to look perfect. People got the jokes, and the story behind whatever I was making. If you have ever seen Laser Cats on SNL, it’s kind of like the same thing. There are so many editing errors and camera angle issues but that’s what makes it so damn funny. I just play to my strength which is my humor. I have seen your comments in the past about using a “real program” but that just wouldn’t be me. Being a master of Photoshop and many other programs, I can see where you would have distaste for using such a weak program.  I was the same way in my old video editing days. I moved to digital and never wanted to look back while others were still making great stuff on linear video editing and my main question would be “Why?”

 

4.  Do you do any other sort of artistic endeavors outside of your signature style?  And without divulging too much information, what sort of work do you do for a living?
     I haven’t done a whole lot of other kinds of painting, but I have painted helmets, cowbells and corn hole boards. I actually just started to transform a Tony Romo action figure into a Michigan Chad Henne. We will see how that pans out.   Time will only tell.  I also like video editing, and it’s something I might do more of this season. As for my job, I work for an agency that houses abused and neglected male teens from 12-18. I am a 3rd shift guidance counselor. I’m there for the kids who have issues sleeping at night, getting up in the morning, etc. Although sometimes very demanding and stressful, it is a rewarding position in which I am able to help guide and mold young boys into respectable men.

 Very impressive-- I’ve got a lot of respect for anyone who is so generous with their time and talents.  So, when not inspiring future generations to succeed or creating Drupal-powered digital equivalents of the Sistine Chapel, what does the Shredder like to do for fun?
     I do all kinds of things. I play disc golf with the wife.  I love basketball and I play in a men’s basketball league at the crack of dawn every Monday and Friday at 5 am. I even officiate basketball during basketball season at all levels (mostly varsity). I am a huge movie fan, even though I find most movies suck these days. I play the XBox from time to time and even dust off the NES for some old school gaming. I eat, drink, and sleep the show LOST. I take heat for that over at Midnight Maize but the show is out of this world. EVERYONE HURRY! GO WATCH LOST BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!!!

 

5.  This week’s episode is still waiting on the DVR—don’t spoil it for me!  Uhh, quick—FOOD!!  Describe the perfect meal.
     Well, I kind of have a tradition going on.  Every Tuesday night at 9pm my wife, my dog Chilly and my cat Dori enjoy a huge plate of spaghetti and a new episode of LOST. That’s life and I love it.

 

6. Speaking of love, can you explain why you are a Michigan fan?
     I grew up in Greenville, Michigan sitting next to my Dad as he watched Michigan sports. I started paying attention as Desmond Howard danced into the end zone to the famous line by the great Keith Jackson. I got my first jersey the next Christmas. My dad’s passion would even scare me at times. During the infamous Fab Five time out, he threw his beloved weather radio that gave him 24/7 weather reports. It smashed into the wall into a bunch of pieces. My mom yelled at my dad for scaring me, but I saw it in the old man’s eyes. I saw his deep love for Michigan and the fire that burns in all us as fans. Even after a kick to my father’s dong by Chris Webber, he was still there the next season holding that little weather radio. All that was left was circuit board and a small speaker that was dangling by some wires. We Michigan fans always come back for more no matter how dark times get. My father was a Michigan fan. I’m a Michigan fan no matter what happens. I’m a Michigan fan because I love the passion that we all carry.

Well said.  Finally, who's your all-time favorite Wolverine?
     Carl Tabb… No I kid. I still love you Carl. But really, it has to be Braylon Edwards. What I saw on that late October night in 2004 was nothing short of amazing. Mike Hart has a special place in my heart as well. I even love me some Charles Woodson.

Softball

Five Michigan players were named to the 2010 All-Big Ten Conference First Team led by Co-Players of the Year, LHP Nikki Nemitz and 3B Maggie Viefhaus and Pitcher of the Year, RHPJordan Taylor.  Nine Wolverines were named to one of the three All-Big Ten teams.

Nemitz and Viefhaus' co-honors marks just the second time in conference history that two student-athletes shared the Big Ten Player of the Year award and the first time that two teammates shared the honor. Michigan has garnered Big Ten Player of the Year honors 14 times in program history.

Nemitz, last seasons' Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, has excelled from both sides of the ball to earn first-team selection as a utility player for the second time in her career. The Wolverine hurler led the conference with a 1.15 ERA in Big Ten games and boasted a perfect 7-0 record with 56 and a .155 opposing average. From the plate, Nemitz hit .458 with nine extra-base hits and 18 runs-batted in.

The Big Ten's leading performer in conference play for the second consecutive season, Viefhaus registered a .478 average with 15 extra-base hits and 27 RBI in Big Ten games. She recorded seven multi-hit and nine multi-RBI performances in league play en route to her second straight first-team nod. Viefhaus has registered career highs in nearly all offensive categories in her senior season, boasting a team-leading .384 average, 60 runs scored, 17 home runs and 53 runs batted in.

Netting Michigan's second straight Big Ten Pitcher of the Year accolade and 11th since 1992, Taylor led the conference in several pitching categories, including wins (11), strikeouts (112) and opposing average (.145). The Wolverine hurler recorded two perfect games in three starts early in Big Ten play and was named Big Ten Pitcher of the Week five times during the 2010 season. Overall this season, she paces the Wolverine team with a 24-3 record, 1.43 earned-run average, 278 strikeouts and seven complete-game shutouts.

 

2010 All-Big Ten Softball Awards
FIRST TEAM
1B	Meredith Hackett	ILL
2B	Danielle Zymkowitz	ILL
3B	Maggie Viefhaus	U-M
SS	Alicia Herron	OSU
C	Sam Marder	OSU
OF	Angela Findlay	U-M
OF	Bree Evans	U-M
OF	Hope Howell	ILL
UT	Nikki Nemitz	U-M
DP	Courtney Pruner	OSU
P	Jordan Taylor	U-M
P	Melanie Nichols	OSU
SECOND  TEAM
1B	Dorian Shaw	U-M
2B	Nicole Pauly	NU
3B	Molly Garst	PUR
SS	Emily Allard	NU
C	Liz Watkins	IOWA
OF	Hollie Pinback	ILL
OF	Taylor Leichsenring	IOWA
OF	Jennifer Gluekert	IND
UT	Molly Bausher	U-M
DP	Michelle Batts	NU
P	Monica Perry	ILL
P	Pepper Gray	ILL
THIRD TEAM
1B	Adrienne Monka	NU
2B	Amanda Chidester	U-M
2B	Lindsey Digmann	IOWA
3B	Shannel Blackshear	WISC
SS	Lindsey Hansen	MSU
SS	Liane Horiuchi	PUR
C	Roya St. Clair	U-M
OF	Dee Dee Hillman	OSU
OF	Brittany Goodchild	OSU
OF	Jennifer Krueger	WISC
UT	Alex Davis	MINN
UT	Lisa Akamine	PSU
UT	Letty Olivarez	WISC
PLAYERS OF THE YEAR
Nikki Nemitz		U-M
Maggie Viefhaus		U-M
PITCHER OF THE YEAR
Jordan Taylor		U-M
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Melanie Nichols		OSU
COACH OF THE YEAR
Terri Sullivan		ILL

 

Maggie Viefhaus, 3B 

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Women's Soccer

Quad-Captain D/M Jackie Carron has been named to the United States U-23 Women's National Team for their upcoming slate of games in Germany on May 21-31.  Carron was named to the team as one of four defenders.

The squad will begin its three-match trip in Giessen, Germany playing German club TSG Wieseck on Monday (May 24) with the following two matches being played in Marburg, Germany against the German U-23 Women's National Team on Wednesday (May 26) and the South Korea's U-20 Women's National Team on Saturday (May 29).

Carron is among 18 players on the roster that will travel to Europe. A three-time Michigan MVP, Carron earned All-Big Ten second team honors for the 2009 season. She led the Wolverines with six assists and 10 points during her junior campaign and collected ESPN The Magazine/CoSIDA Academic All-District 4 second team and Academic All-Big Ten honors.

Jackie Carron, D/M

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Women's Track & Field

Freshman Erin Pendleton (Lindsey, Ohio/Woodmore) of the University of Michigan women's track and field team was named Big Ten Outdoor Freshman of the Year to go along with first team honors, the conference office announced Wednesday (May 19). Junior Emily Pendleton (Lindesey, Ohio/Woodmore) also earned second team honors after picking up two runner-up finishes at the Big Ten Outdoor Championships (May 14-16).  Junior Jennifer Neville (Dearborn, Mich./Divine Child) was named Michigan's Sportsmanship honoree. The student-athletes chosen for the Big Ten Sportsmanship Award are individuals that have distinguished themselves through sportsmanship and ethical behavior.

Erin Pendleton picks up conference honors for the first time in her career after winning her first Big Ten Title, earning the first team distinction. She won the discus with a throw of 56.31 meters (184-09), setting a new championship record. Her throw beat the old record of 56.00 meters held by Indiana's Katrina Koch, set in 1992. Her title in the discus marked the third consecutive year that a Wolverine has won the event at the Big Ten Championships. She also finished 10th in the hammer, with a throw of 50.93 meters (167-01).

Emily Pendleton, who was the two-time Big Ten defending champion in the discus, garners All-Big Ten accolades for the third consecutive outdoor season, earning second-team honors this season. The junior captain finished runner-up in the discus (54.57 meters, 179-00), runner-up in the hammer throw (55.86 meters, 183-03) and seventh in the shot put (14.40 meters, 47-03.00), scoring 18 points for the Wolverines.

The Pendleton sisters combined to win every discus event this season, picking up eight titles between the two. Erin Pendleton set a new school record in the discus at the Jesse Owens Classic (May 1), throwing 56.87 meters (186-07) to collect the second of her Big Ten Field Athlete of the Week honors.

Erin Pendleton, Discus

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Men's Golf

The Big Ten Conference announced today (Tuesday, May 4) that University of Michigan freshman Jack Schultz (Whitefish Bay, Wis./Whitefish Bay) of the men's golf team was the unanimous selection as the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year, while sophomore Matt Thompson (Battle Creek, Mich./Lakeview) and junior Lion Kim (Lake Mary, Fla./Lake Mary Prep School) were All-Big Ten second team selections. Thompson was also named the Big Ten Sportsmanship honoree for U-M.

Schultz becomes only the second U-M player to be named Big Ten Freshman of the Year, following Andy Matthews' (1999-2002) selection in 1999. In his first season in Ann Arbor, Schultz started all 11 events and is currently on pace to set the freshman scoring average record with a 73.47 per round average. He has shot 10 of his 30 rounds at-or-below par this season, including a career-best and U-M season-best, six-under 66 shot in the first round of the 2009 Bridgestone Intercollegiate (Oct. 24-25).

Jack Schultz, Golfer

Meanwhile, the Golf Coaches Association of America announced that men's golf assistant coach Chris Whitten was named one of five finalists for the 2010 Jan Strickland Award.  The winner will be announced on June 1.

The Strickland Award is presented to the NCAA Division I, II, III, NAIA or NJCAA assistant coach that, among other things, has excelled in working with their student-athletes both on the course and in the classroom.  In his four seasons, Whitten has assisted U-M head coach Andrew Sapp and together they have helped the Wolverines earn three straight NCAA Regional bids, including a semifinal finish in match play at the 2009 NCAA Finals.

Chris Witten, Asst Coach

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Women's Golf

Senior captain Ashley Bauer was named to Team USA for the 13th World University Golf Championship, to be played Monday through Friday (June 7-11) at Antequera Golf Club in Malaga, Spain.

Bauer, who was an All-Big Ten First Team selection, recently closed her stellar career with the Wolverines playing in her third NCAA regional as an invited individual.

She led U-M with a 73.51 average breaking the school single-season record by more than two strokes. She had one individual title among seven top-10 finishes and four top-five finishes this season, and she has finished as the top Wolverine in nine of U-M's 11 events.

Bauer highlighted her season at the 2010 Big Ten Championships by finishing as the medalist runner-up with a U-M 72-hole tournament record tally of five-under 283. The runner-up finish equals the best ever by a Wolverine at the conference event. En route to the record-breaking tally at the conference tournament, Bauer crushed the U-M record for a single-round total with a seven-under 65 in the second round, becoming the first Wolverine to shoot below 68.

Bauer holds virtually every U-M record, including single-round score (65, -7), 18-hole tournament (68, -3), 36-hole tournament (148, shared), 54-hole tournament (209, -4) and 72-hole tournament (283, -5). In 48 career events, she has posted 28 top-20 finishes, with 20 finishes in the top 10 and 10 in the top five.  Her current single-season (72.79) and career (75.59) scoring averages are the best in school history.

• World University Golf Championship

Ashley Bauer, Golfer

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Congratulations to each of the honorees.  You do all of us proud as stellar representatives of the University of Michigan. 

Good luck and Go Blue! to Jackie Carron and Ashley Bauer as they prepare to represent the United States in international play.

[Ed: This week's Mathlete column expands on fourth down decision-making. I haven't seen a graph anywhere near as clear as those included below about how shifting the parameters of the offenses and defenses in question makes major impact on what a correct decision is. This is not a situation where you can just read the decision off a chart. Feel and personal preference will always play a role. It's a complex decision.]

Last week I wrote on the value of special teams but a very interesting side topic arose: fourth down decision making.  It started with this chart:

About which I remarked:

The going for it actually peaks between 30 and 35 as more coaches don’t really know what to do so they just go for it.

So I decided to look and see what the decision chart should look like on an expected points basis.

Anything close to two different colors is a virtual toss-up.  Any gains near a color transition are negligible and not worth noting, but there are very real gains to be made in the heart of the yellow section, where coaches are taking their offenses off of the field far too quickly.

A couple of quick rules of thumb:

1. Don’t punt on the opponent’s side of the field.
2. Really consider going for it on 4th down after crossing your own 40.
3. Field goals only make sense if there are more than 5 yards to go and you are between the 10 and 30 yard lines. If you’re in opponent territory and these two criteria aren’t true, you should be going for it.

I know this is not the first time a topic like this has been presented, David Romer was mostly criticized for his paper on the topic a couple years back (thanks for the reminder Colin). [Ed: Not around here.] Of course there was the great Patriot debate last season when the Patriots elected to go for it on 4th and 2 with the lead in their own territory.  Even though the majority of the arguments against this work amount to "people like David Romer and The Mathlete don’t know anything about football and just live in their parent’s basement" I did want to look at the main objections and see if they had any validity.

Objection 1: Does not account for “quick change” momentum

Below you’ll see a chart of the expected points on a drive based on field position, and how teams have actually fared.  I also included drives obtained by turnover as comparison to the other “quick change” drive source. 

There could be a case that drives started on a short field due to a 4th down stop generate more points than normal drives, but the small sample size reduces how strongly that argument can be made. From 2007-2009, the total points accounted for on drives obtained by 4th down stops (2523) is less than the projected points would be for any drives starting at the same field position (2580).  This difference is meaningless statistically, something very damaging to the idea "momentum" helps the opposing offense after their defense gets a fourth down stop.

Adding in the turnovers does nothing to build a case for momentum after big defensive stops or turnovers.  The turnover-started drive line tightly hugs the average line.  As a whole, the turnover expected points line is slightly higher than the average line, but only by enough to generate an extra touchdown every 50 drives. That's about one every two years or so.

Although it can often feel like there is a big momentum swing after a big stop or turnover, there is scant evidence that it is more than our memories selecting the most traumatic or exhilarating scenes to hold onto. [Ed: for an example of this human tendency to ascribe meaning to unusual events where there is none, see any of the zillion "hot hand" studies.]

Objection 2: It assumes all offenses and defenses are average

To get a gauge on what “good” can mean in comparison to average, I plotted the best offense and best defense of the last three years against the average team’s expected points per drive.

As a rough approximation, the best offense is about a 1 point per drive better than average and the best defense makes offenses about a point worse per drive.

Scenario 1: Good offense

If your offense is as good as Florida, you should never punt against an average defense.  Maybe if you are deep in your own territory, but only in the most extreme situations.  This assumes that a new first down gives the Florida offense an extra point over an average team in expected value and a 10 percentage point increase in the likelihood that they convert. 

A punt is conceding any chance of scoring and an offense this good should not give up that right so easily.  This is the basic philosophy behind the vaunted no punting HS coach in Arkansas.  His team isn’t necessary good because he doesn’t punt. He doesn’t punt because his offense is good. Why waste another scoring opportunity?

Scenario 2: Going against a good defense

Playing against a good defense changes the dynamic extensively but it does not mean forgoing the fourth down attempt altogether.  With a reduced likelihood of success on 4th down  and a reduced payout if the conversion is successful, the 4th down attempt still is an optimal strategy more than is currently utilized. Even against a top national defense, you should still not punt in opponent territory.  The field goal becomes a more viable option against the stronger defense and punting becomes a much better idea all the way out to midfield.

[Ed: I think this is moving towards correct strategy since it takes a caveman or a seriously long-yardage situation for someone to punt from inside the opponent's 40 these days. That range from midfield to the opponent 40 is a spot we might see move towards fourth-down aggression in the next few years.

Also note that coventional current strategy gets way less wrong once you ramp up the ability of the defense. If we jacked it up even farther, it might get to the point where punting from the 36 (or even on third down) is a good idea. The flaws in strategy here are leftovers from an era when punting was actually the best option. Thinking has not kept pace with scoring since.]

Scenarios 3/4: Good defense or opponent good offense

The conventional wisdom is that if you trust your defense, you don’t go for it on fourth down. [Ed: In my experience the conventional wisdom is remarkably malleable on this point. If you have a good D and the announcer agrees with the call, the good D will be cited as a reason why.]  In reality, the strength of your own defense (or the strength of the opposing offense) is largely irrelevant to the decision. Fourth down decisions are all about offensive opportunity.  A 4th down decision to punt is the decision to take the ball out of your offense’s hand, leaving the relative impacts on your defense to negate each other.  A 4th down failure puts your defense in a worse situation, but it doesn’t guarantee points for the other team; a good defense is still a major asset in stopping or limiting the other team with good field position.  A punt doesn’t guarantee that the other team is going to be stopped, but a good defense makes it more likely.  In the end, it’s still all about the offense.

Objection 3: Does not account for game specific situations

This objection does ring true, but its application is much narrower than most people believe.  The main flaw with the expected points model is that for most of the game all points are largely equal but at the end of the game, a field goal or even time can become crucially important.  If a field goal can tie a game, take the lead, or move said lead from one possession to two (or vice-versa), the decision-making process suggested above can shift radically.  This could mean punting near midfield to prevent a short field goal drive for the other team or taking a field goal instead going for it on fourth in field goal range. 

These situations are rare, however, and only come into effect in the fourth quarter. When there are likely to be even 2-3 additional possessions, the expected points model still holds up.

Another potential game situation not accounted for above is the presence of a high quality field goal kicker.  A very accurate field goal kicker will move the blue field goal “bubble” in the above charts down, making fields more practical in short yardage situations.  An above average kicker from long range will move the bubble left.  Even a great kicker won’t make kicking inside the 5 practical in very many situations.

Conclusion: In Which Romer Is Re-Iterated

Teams need to be using kickers and punters less and their offenses more.  Especially teams with good offenses.  If you have a good offense, bringing out the punter should only be done in long distance situations or when deep in your own territory.  Scoring touchdowns is the valuable thing in football and giving away a quarter of your plays to kick on fourth down greatly reduces your ability to score them, the gain in field position from a punt is worth less than it is currently perceived to be and the idea that momentum is obtained from a quick change of possession is to be slight at best and most likely non-existent.

One final thought I haven’t been able to quantify yet: if you switch to a fourth down mindset, what opportunities does it open up in play calling during the first three downs of a series.  Planning on four plays for a first down instead of three would surely have some value for an offense to adjust and re-optimize their play calling, and the total offensive value could become even greater.

Note: apparently Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats and I have been having some of the same offseason thoughts as he just put up another piece on 4th down decision making, and this after we both introduced similar defensive player evaluation metrics within a month of each other.

Coach Schiano here. You might remember me from such fine diaries as MGoStatistics, Visualizing the Hennechart (aka the Hennegraph), and some other forgotten gems (the last being a drug-induced haloscan rant of epic proportion). Or you might not. But at least those stats got some front page love from blogmaster-in-chief Brian, despite the purported "diss". PYTHON RULES!

In last week's post, we summarized some word counts over the years to definitively show that Brian is awesome, which he is. What left a bad taste, however, was the weak attempt at the end of that diary to summarize word usage via a single Wordle. Yes, Wordle is awesome, but no one Wordle can this blog describe, as someone famous once said; probably not somebody associated with Wordle, though.

Thus we bring you a deeper analysis of the blog via the simple tool of Word Frequency Analysis (WFA). By simply counting how many times a word is used, great insight into this blog and its content can be achieved. Or, at least, mild amusement can your way be brought. Minimally, sentences can in Yoda style be written.

The results below come from (somewhat arbitrary) comparisons of the frequencies of different words. The conclusions come from my brain. Thus, the former can be trusted, and the latter should likely be dismissed. But hopefully each analysis is clear: a table, with a list of (frequency, word) pairs, where frequency is the number of times that particular word appeared in mgoblog over its entire lifetime, 2004 until present.

And now, for the results! Brace yourselves, this gets ugly.

First, we analyze how often particular sports are mentioned:

3252	football
1119	hockey
1118	basketball
300	baseball
111	soccer
1	soccer-sucks-no-it-doesn't

The word football is mentioned over 3000 times in this history of articles on this blog, or three times as often as hockey or basketall. This is a football blog. Proven, BOOM!

Now, an analysis of how often various places are mentioned:

617	ann
613	arbor
156	columbus
119	pahokee
64	lansing

It's just as you thought: even Pahokee rules over Little Brother's home.

Now we study the popularity of various coaches:

2394	rodriguez
1332	carr
262	bo
248	tressel
183	ferentz
129	paterno
124	berenson
123	schiano
93	schembechler
55	woody

Rodriguez not surprisingly is mentioned more times than anybody else. More importantly, Schembechler beats Woody again. 7-5-1 you Ohio lover! And we put Schiano in there, well, because, you know.

You might find yourself wondering about the dominant mgoblog receiver. If so, we give you the receiver analysis:

1002	manningham
721	breaston
469	avant
193	braylon
48	tacopants

Tacopants: Thrown to more often than you might like, but not the main target of mgoblog, with only 48 mentions. And Manningham for the win - who can forget his PSU or MSU performances?

Who is mgoblog's favorite running back? Well, this was an easy one to guess:

2447	hart
1606	minor
691	mcguffie
11	biakabutuka

Mgoblog harts Hart, and associated T-shirt sales. And Biakabutuka may only have been mentioned 11 times by Brian, but each time he was mentioned, he went for 313 yards. There is a t-shirt idea, by the way: "Biakabutuka 313" and nothing else on it. He should start the 313 Foundation too; are you reading this Tshimonga?

Onto the quarterback competition:

1720	henne
1305	forcier
734	tate
301	denard
261	devin
218	brady
101	navarre
10	dilithium
1	tate/denard

Henne for the win (also no surprise). Prediction for the year: the Dilithium count goes up quite a lot. And a note on the high count of Forcier: Remember, said Yoda, there was another.

And now we study two particular schools of football philosophy: Lloydball and Tresselball.

19	lloydball
5	tresselball
1	lloyd/tresselball

Lloydball for the win. Unfortunately, the dominance of Lloydball on this blog turned out not to predict their head-to-head record (we would have settled for 19-5-1, yes).

Speaking of football philosophy, we also study the dominance of the spread:

688	spread
31	spreads
13	spread-option
3	spreaders
3	spread-type
3	spread-offense
3	non-spread
2	spread-to-run
2	spread-n-shred
2	spread-mad
2	anti-spread
1	ur-spread
1	spreadmania
1	spreadfather
1	spread/zone-read
1	spread-zone
1	spread-run-throw
1	spread-option-happy
1	spread-o
1	spread-ish
1	spread-hating
1	spread-happy
1	spread-happiness
1	spread-friendly
1	spread-first
1	spread-dominated
1	spread-crazy
1	spread-combating
1	spread-and-shred
1	pseudo-spread
1	hyper-spread

The spread rules mgoblog. Note: I am pretty sure most of these were football related.

Now we move onto more important matters, like the study mascot names:

1312	wolverines
462	buckeyes
400	spartans
272	gophers
225	badgers
130	hawkeyes
104	wildcats
109	illini
77	nittany
77	hoosiers
29	boilermakers

There were three references to gopherholes (which we didn't count for the gophers). Either way, the Boilermaker is the least desirable mascot, which we knew already. Even less mention than a Hoosier!

Finally, if you'll indulge, we'll get into some slightly more off-topic terms. Let's start with food. What about the food preferences of mgoblog? Sadly, not much data here, making us wonder if Brian eats very much or is rather some kind of blog-creating Cyborg sent from our future UofM overlords to get us through these rough times (possible, no? hmm? HMMM?). But from what we could find:

34	bacon
9	sausage

10	hamburger
4	hotdog

33	pizza
1	pppppizzaaa

13	coke
4	pepsi

So Brian likely eats bacon for breakfast, hamburgers for lunch, pizza for dinner, and prefers Coke over Pepsi. ENQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW, AND NOW THEY DO.

Being a blog of international repute, mgoblog also mentions some people of differing nationalities:

28	germans
26	french
18	russians
4	greeks
400	spartans

What is this, a blog of the ancient era? Oh yeah, right, those Spartans. Let's not remember them.

Brian also uses his fair share of saltier language. For example:

1	breast
2	breasts

Well, he's got those counts right, at least. And then there's:

182	ass
48	badass
29	asshole
27	kickass
23	asses
1	ass-kickage
1	ass-raping
1	ass-shaking
1	ass-tasting
1	asshat-wearing
1	asshatted
1	asshole/prick
1	asswhooping
1	crazyass
1	scary-ass
1	shiny-ass
1	silly-ass
1	skinny-ass
1	slow-ass
1	smarmy-ass
1	smartass
1	stupid-ass
1	wack-ass
1	whiteass
1	freekbass

So you can definitely tell your mother, there is lots of ass on this blog. If you're wondering where "ass-tasting" came up in Brian's writings, see Blogs with Balls Recappening. That is one crazy recappening. Finally, the F word:

68	fuck
48	fucking
7	motherfucker
6	motherfucking
5	fucked
4	fuckin
3	fuckers
3	motherfuckers
2	muthafucka
1	fuckchrist
1	fuckeyes
1	fuckity
1	mothafuckin
1	mothafucka*

A reasonable number of fucking going on here too, but probably not by the readers (ZING!). The last one, mothafucka*, is used in the following gem, in which some guy on Tulsa named Germany is repeatedly called "the Germinator" by the announcers. Brian writes:

"I suppose it is possible that Germany is a plant biology major and spends his time before the snap screaming "I gonna sprout all up in your ass, mothafucka*" at the quarterback, but it seems unlikely."

Classic.

Sorry, one last set of bad words:

115	appalachian
108	horror

Just keep moving folks, keep moving. And let them never be mentioned again. Speaking of which:

60	kitten
56	kittens
1	demon-kitten
1	kitten-strangling

Just keep moving folks, keep moving. And let them never be mentioned again. Speaking of which:

60	kitten
56	kittens
1	demon-kitten
1	kitten-strangling

Hopefully fewer kittens are in our future. Or we will have to strangle them all.

We end with some fairly random studies. First, a gender study yielded the following information about the different types of "boys" mentioned on the blog:

203	boy
26	cowboy
7	fanboy
6	boyfriend
4	ballboy
3	playboy
1	boy-band
1	ex-boyfriend
1	fratboy
1	georgiaboy
1	mgowhippingboy
1	nancyboy
1	non-fanboy
1	posterboy
1	sissy-boy
1	wonderboy

and about girls:

126	girl
41	girlfriend
2	14-year-old-girl
2	cowgirl
2	farmgirl
1	batgirl
1	ex-girlfriend
1	girl-men
1	girl-on-girl
1	girlish
1	girly
1	then-girlfriend
1	mgogirlfriend

The boys still outnumber the girls, alas. You'll have to look up the "girl-on-girl" quote on your own, playboy.

And we conclude with some word counts that we noticed "coincidentally" ended up at the same frequency. Or did they?????

64	lansing
64	oops

123	hopson
123	mistakes

128	harbaugh
128	mom
128	penetration

These results probably mean nothing. But if true about Harbaugh, it may be a more difficult road for him to climb if he wants to coach here someday. Just sayin'.

The Final Home Game of the Season
Michigan (31-19)		vs		Ball State (27-24)
Tuesday 6:35pm ET, Ray Fisher Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TBA		vs		TBA
Stats	Audio			BTN.com ($)
Notes: Michigan beat Ball State 12-8 at the Coastal Tournament. That made the all time series 17-1.

Much has happened since these two teams squared off just 2 months ago (formatting on that has changed by itself, taking out all of my paragraphs breaks). Michigan has seen their Preseason-All American return to the lineup. Ball State has turned their season back around after starting 3-9. Both teams are in the thick of tight conference pennant races.

This time around, the stakes are equally unimportant in the long run, but both teams need to keep their momentum going as they enter their last full week of regular season games.

Quick preview after the jump.

Water Polo

The Women’s Water Polo team earned a sixth place finish at the NCAA tournament.  The team opened with a 12-8 loss to California, then defeated Pomona-Pitzer 11-3 before falling to UCLA 9-6 in the fifth place game.

Michigan concludes the 2010 season with a program-record .805 winning percentage and a record-low eight losses. U-M claimed its ninth consecutive CWPA Western Division title, fifth CWPA Eastern Championship crown and made its third straight appearance at the NCAA Championship. 

In its ten seasons of existence, the team has one fourth, one fifth and three sixth place NCAA tournament finishes.

USC defeated Stanford 10-9 in the championship game.  California defeated Loyola-Marymount in the third place game and Pomona-Pitzer defeated Marist in the seventh place game.

Lauren Colton

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Women’s Tennis

The Women’s Tennis team defeated Ohio State in the second round of the NCAA Championships 4-0 sending them to the Sweet 16 against Tennessee.  That match is scheduled for 3 pm EDT, Thu 20 May in Athens, GA.

 

Singles
No. 1	No. 19 Denise Muresan (U-M) d. No. 72 Kirsten Flower (OSU)	6-2, 2-6, 6-4
No. 2	Whitney Taney (U-M) vs. Paloma Escobedo (OSU)	6-3, 3-6, 1-2 abandoned
No. 3	Mimi Nguyen (U-M) vs. Kelsey Haviland (OSU)	5-7, 6-4, 2-3 abandoned
No. 4	Tania Mahtani (U-M) d. Gabby Steele (OSU)	4-6, 6-1, 6-1
No. 5	Rika Tatsuno (U-M) vs. Christina Keesey (OSU)	6-7 (5), 6-1, 2-1 abandoned
No. 6	Michelle Sulahian (U-M) d. Cami Hubbs (OSU)	6-4, 6-0
Doubles
No. 1	No. 19 Taney/Tatsuno (U-M) d. Haviland/Hubbs (OSU)	8-5
No. 2	Nguyen/Sulahian (U-M) d. Escobedo/Keesey (OSU)	8-2
No. 3	Steele/Manashirova (OSU) d. Mahtani/Muresan (U-M)	8-2

Denise Muresan

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Men’s Tennis

The Men’s Tennis team fell to Ohio State 4-1 in the second round of the NCAA Championships.

 

Singles
No. 1	No. 38 Jason Jung (U-M) v. No. 8 Chase Buchanan (OSU)	3-6, 6-4, 1-1 (Abandoned)
No. 2	Evan King (U-M) v. No. 23 Justin Kronauge (OSU)	7-6 (5), 5-4 (Abandoned)
No. 3	Dino Marcan (OSU) d. Mike Sroczynski (U-M)	6-7 (5), 6-1, 6-2
No. 4	Balazs Novak (OSU) d. Chris Madden (U-M)	6-3, 6-2
No. 5	Matt Allare (OSU) d. George Navas (U-M)	6-3, 6-2
No. 6	Chris Cha (U-M) d. Shuehi Uzawa (OSU	3-6, 6-2, 6-1
Doubles
No. 1	No. 9 Buchanan/Marcan (OSU) v. No. 31 Jung/King (U-M)	6-5 (Abandoned)
No. 2	Allare/Uzawa (OSU) d. Navas/Sroczynski (U-M)	8-6
No. 3	Kronauge/Novak (OSU) d. Cha/Madden (U-M)	8-4

Senior Jason Jung (Torrance, Calif./West Torrance) and freshman Evan King (Chicago, Ill./Kaplan) will now prepare for the NCAA Individual Championships, beginning Wednesday, May 26, in Athens, Ga. Jung received one of the 48 at-large berths in the singles bracket and will also team with King in doubles play. Match times and pairings will be announced at a later date.

Chris Cha

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Women’s Rowing

The Women’s Rowing team placed fourth at the Central/South Region Sprints on 16 May.  The first and second varsity eights both finished fourth in their respective A finals.  The first varsity four finished fifth in its A final, the novice eight finished fourth in its A final and the open four finished first in its B final. 

 

Final Team Standings
1.	Virginia	451*
2.	Wisconsin	405#
3.	Michigan State	387
4.	MICHIGAN	386
5.	Clemson	369
6.	Ohio State	360
7.	Tennessee	312
8.	Iowa	293
9.	Notre Dame	269
10.	Minnesota	249
* Virginia earns South Region title
# Wisconsin earns Central Region title

[Edit - National Championship selections were announced May 18.]

The No. 13 ranked University of Michigan women's rowing team has received a bid to compete at the 2010 NCAA Championships... The Wolverines will be making their 11th appearance at the national championship in the program's 14-year history. This year's events will be held Friday, May 28, through Sunday, May 30, on Lake Natoma in Gold River, Calif.

"We're really excited to qualify for the National Championship," said U-M head coach Mark Rothstein. "We're very excited to race against the best crews in the country and see where we stack up. We've already started our preparation and it is my expectation that we'll have great preparation and we'll race our best at NCAAs."

In Division I, 16 teams are awarded team bids, which include a first varsity eight, second varsity eight and a first varsity four. The three boats from each school will compete for individual national titles and will earn points towards the team title.

Other teams earning a bid to this year's national championship include: California, Southern California, Michigan State, Washington, Washington State, Yale, Stanford, Brown, Wisconsin, Virginia, Princeton, UCLA, Clemson, Tennessee and Ohio State.

Michigan is looking for its first national title. In 2001, U-M's second varsity eight won an individual boat title, helping the squad to a runner-up team finish. In 2003, the first varsity eight took home a silver medal en route to leading the Maize and Blue to a fourth-place team standing. Michigan's other national finishes include fifth place in 1998, 1999 and 2000, eighth place in 2002 and 2005 and a ninth place finish last season.

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Women’s Track & Field

At the Big Ten Outdoor Championships held last weekend, Women’s Track & Field finished in eighth place.  Penn State finished in first place. 

Freshman Erin Pendleton (Lindsey, Ohio/Woodmore) picked up [the team’s] lone Big Ten title, winning the discus throw…with a Big Ten Championships record throw of 56.31 meters (184-09). Junior Emily Pendleton (Lindsey, Ohio/Woodmore) took runner-up, throwing 54.57 meters (179-00)…

The Wolverines will take a weekend off before going to the NCAA Preliminary Round (Thu-Sat., May 27-29), hosted by North Carolina A&T University. The qualifying format for the NCAA Championships changed this year, with only two sites -- East and West. Michigan will participate in the East Region, hoping to grab qualifications for the NCAA Championships (June 9-12).

Erin Pendleton

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Men’s Track & Field

At the Big Ten Outdoor Championships held last weekend, Men’s Track & Field finished in tenth (and last) place.  Minnesota finished in first place.

Junior tri-captain Frank Shotwell (Medina, Ohio/Medina) was Michigan's lone representative on the All-Big Ten team, earning a second team nomination following his second-place finish in the decathlon on Saturday (May 15). His 7,379-point performance is a new University of Michigan record, breaking the old mark of 7,362 points, which Shotwell set almost two years ago to the day. Shotwell, the 2008 Big Ten Champion in the decathlon, missed out on first place by just two points to R.J. McGinnis (Minnesota), who had 7,381 points.

Select University of Michigan track and field athletes will head to the NCAA Preliminaries for the East Region, held in Greensboro, N.C., beginning on Thursday, May 27.

Frank Shotwell

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Congratulations to all of these outstanding student-athletes and good luck to those participating at the next level of NCAA competition.