Diaries

Since the defensive improvement has been far and away better than anything any of us could have expected, I thought it would be interesting to see the extent of the improvement in historical terms. I collected data on scoring defense and yardage defense from Rivals as far back as 2003 to the present. Here are the results (click on the graphs to embiggen):

And, to compare the two data sets, I've superimposed them by representing each as a percentage of the worst historical performance (i.e., 2010):

The result is striking. Thus far, Hoke, Mattison and the rest of the defensive staff have turned this squad into one of the best 3 defensive teams in the past 9 years.

UPDATE: MGoBlog user Mat suggested that I look at our defense's yards allowed per play. I did some googling and found stats dating back to 2003 foryards per play. The following graph is based on statistics that only take into account performances against other FBS teams:

Which confirms Mat's impression (and ours) that while this defense is excellent we are not yet elite. That's not surprising given that it's year 1 of yet another defensive system and that we are starting two freshmen.

This weekend, I took a trip to Happy Valley.  Yes, your read that right. Why, you ask? This had been planned for months as a good time to visit a friend in grad school there on a Michigan away game week, that conveniently matched up two good teams that should've been talking about a rematch from their last contest and the possible budding of a new rivalry.  My ticket was purchased, my friend expected me, so I went.  I'll delve a little into the awkwardness of everything but mostly wanted to give an in person preview of what Michigan can expect when Nebraska comes to Ann Arbor in a few days.

The tailgating to start the day was more than slightly subdued.  Sure, they still had beer, brats and music, but it did not feel like a matchup between two ranked teams vying for a possible path to the inaugural B1G Championship game.  Appropriately so given the awful tragedies that had taken place.  How much was out of respect for the kids and how much was the fact that they missed JoePa is up for debate, but I'd like to give them the benefit of the doubt and lean towards the former.  Those of you that watched the game on TV likely saw the pregame honoring of the victims, which was done quite well.  When the teams met at midfield to pray, you could faintly hear the man speaking at the 50 from 20 rows up around the 5 yard line.  It was that silent.  Small groups of people tried to start chants but were appropriately shushed.  The crowd eventually got impatient and started a slow clap, which was not really disprespectful but did somewhat dampen an otherwise nice moment.  As the game started, there was cheering from the student section, but it all felt quite hollow, as it should have.  Late in the game it got as loud as I assume Beaver Stadium normally gets, but only for a brief period of time.  Overall, the weirdest and most awkward game I've been to by a longshot.  Downright eery.  Anyways, on to football things.

Taylor Martinez - boy oh boy is it tough to watch him throw.  But you already knew that.  What perhaps you didn't know is that every throw he makes is a frozen rope about 6 feet off the ground.  And this is not a good thing for him.  It appears that his chicken wing delivery doesn't afford him the ability to put any touch on his throws.  If I were the coaching staff, I would put a tremendous amount of emphasis on the D line getting their hands up. Having not watched a ton of their offense this year, I was suprised to see how often they went to the air early.  It appears that their game plan was to try to relax Penn State's stout defense, then run the ball late.  They stuck with the passing game despite its ineffectiveness for quite a long time.  

Rex Burkhead - Quick as hell and incredibly frustrating to try to stop.  They frequently will line up in the I and have Burkhead and Martinez switch places.  Burkhead is such an effective runner and Martinez such a terrible passer that it sometimes feels like they should do this permanently.  He's a decisive runner with solid vision and decent power who always seems to fall forward.  They've got a power runner whose name escapes me that they used in goal line.  He's effective.

The punter - Yea, the punter.  He's the third player I'm talking about. The punter.  He's that good.  He's like the space emperor.  He can coffin corner better than anyone I've seen in a long time and he'll bomb it as well.  Someone nearby asked what the name for the punter of the year award in college football was and suggested it be renamed after the Nebraska punter.  

Nebraska's corners - they're good.  It's hard to tell how much of Penn State's ineffectiveness passing was due to McGloin - or, as he's known, "The Scranton Slinger", and how much was due to the corners, but I felt like receivers were consistently well-covered.  Penn State doesn't have world beaters, but Moye is a solid receiver and I often watched him get locked down.  Obviously everyone knows about Alphonso Dennard, and he was as advertised.  The rest of the secondary was also great, though.  

I had more to say, but my memory escapes me on a few of my mental game notes. Overall, Nebraska definitely seems beatable.  They execute the triple option damn well, and can eventually burn you with it, but their offense feels like a middle of the road B1G one, and I think the statistics bear that out.  Their defense is meh, but the secondary does worry me.  An ability to lock down several receivers with man coverage could pose problems.  This will definitely be a game where I'd like to see a lot of 4 wide with zone running.  Getting into an Ace formation and the like and running play action pass probably won't fly as they'll be able to both confidently load the box and shut down whoever is on the outside.  

After a one-week hiatus, the Big Ten Recruiting Rankings are back. There's even a new Michigan commit, so I might actually front-page this sucker for the first time this season. The past couple weeks saw a fair amount of movement among teams at the top of the rankings, while the bottom half remained static. Action since last rankings:

10-30-11: Ohio State picks up Michael Thomas.
10-31-11: David Perkins decommits from Notre Dame.
11-3-11: Michigan State picks up Ezra Robinson.
11-5-11: Wisconsin picks up Reggie Love.
11-8-11: Michigan picks up Drake Johnson.
11-11-11: Joey O'Connor decommits from Penn State.

Chart? Chart:

*ESPN doesn't rate JuCos, so Isaac Fruechte and James Gillum (Minnesota), Darius Stroud and Jacarri Alexander (Indiana), Steffon Martin, Devin Smith, and Greg Latta (Purdue), and Zaire Anderson (Nebraska) are counted as unranked recruits for the sake of consistency (trust me, it makes sense when you look at the spreadsheet).
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (aka the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

On to the full data, after the jump.

“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” 
Albert Einstein

Learn from yesterday...

Common sense tells us that facing a team coming off of a bye week should be a disadvantage.  Give a good coach 2 weeks to prepare for a game and they will have their team refreshed and focused, ready to take advantage of what their next opponent gives them.  Mark Dantonio had the Spartans ready to exploit Michigan's flaws and that preparedness (plus a bit of dirty play) allowed Michigan State to dominate us. Brady Hoke used Michigan's bye week to effectively put the loss to Little Brother in the rearview and had the Wolverines ready to put Purdue away in style.  When Miles faced Saban after each had a bye week the result was one of the most epic battles I have ever seen.  This is what good coaching can do with a bye week advantage.

Ron Zook is a bad coach, this is known.  It is remarkable how bad he is though, when looking at his record after bye weeks.  Over the past 4 seasons (2008-2011) Illinois has had 6(!) bye weeks, with two in both 2009 and 2010.  Their record following these bye weeks?  0-6:

2008: Lost to Penn St 38-24

2009: Lost to OSU 30-0, Lost to Cincinnati 49-36

2010: Lost to OSU 24-13, Lost to Fresno St 25-23

2011: Lost to Michigan (woot!)  31-14

That is epic fail.  Ron Zook should be fired.

It was a very satisfying win for Michigan however.  Yes, the lack of redzone efficiency kept the game interesting for far too long.  This just magnified how much better this defense is than anything we could have reasonably expected.  The zone blitzing destroyed Illinois.  The run defense was smothering.  Even the prevent defense worked almost to perfection, with Illinois needing almost 7 minutes to score when they were down 3 scores with 10 minutes to go.  They kept plays in front of them, tackled in-bounds, and strangled the game.  Giving up the 4th-26 was painful, but by that point it was forgivable.  Greg Mattison has done better than anyone could have expected.

Live for Today…

Several players/coaches should take particular pride in their accomplishments yesterday:

1. Greg Mattison - Seriously, can we get this guy a raise?  I know he already makes a lot of dough, but he has earned it and then some.  This defense makes such incredible leaps forward with each game... just remarkable.
2. Fitz Toussaint - Got his swagger back right out of the gate.  Get this guy a tear-away jersey and he would have had 250 yards.  It makes so much more seem possible when a top running back steps forward.
3. Devin Gardner - Looked much less lost out there.  Clutch TD throw on 3rd and long really put the game away.  Still needs work, but perhaps the future is looking up for DG.
4. JT Floyd - Beautiful anticipation on the interception that kept Illinois from making a comeback.  Played well against Jenkins, really taking away the Illini's best weapon for most of the game.
5. Jeremy Gallon - Great job on punt returns.  Really helped Michigan flip the field position in their favor.

Also of note:  Martavious Odoms nice TD grab, Denard Robinson 2 TD runs, RVB 2.5 sacks, Desmond Morgan blowing up fools, Mike Martin is Mike Martin

Hope for Tomorrow

Michigan comes back home to wrap up the season sitting at 8-2.  The rest is gravy. Every Michigan fan should be pretty happy with how the team is progressing.  I have not felt this confident about the future since 2006 at least.  Nebraska will be a tough test in a week, but I think Michigan will be competitive in that contest.  Ohio just lost to Purdue and is a team that Michigan should beat.  It is the biggest rivalry in all of sport though, so anything can happen. Regardless of how the last two games go though, this team has made this fan happy and excited about seasons to come.  It is great to be a Michigan Wolverine.

Go Blue and stay safe!

    It feels great to win a rivalry game, even if it’s just our opponent who considers it a rivalry. By my count, Brady is now 4-1 in rivalry games. I’m including San Diego State, because you don’t just take another team’s coach without there being some hurt feelings. Brady is like the personification of the little brown jug, if only it wore short sleeves and was neither little, nor brown.*

Link: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/111211aaa.html

Burst of Impetus

• Initial impetus went to Michigan after Touss’ 65 yard run that basically told Illinois, yeah, you have a good defense but we can run on you. We controlled the impetus for the rest of the half.
• Illinois had two nice plays to start the second half, but our defense followed that with a Desmond Morgan de-cleater (everyone who saw/heard it knows what I’m talking about), a blitzing Kovacs TFL, and a monster sack from Van Bergen, who split a double-team and jumped on top of Scheelhaase’s back. Burst of Impetus regained.
• It did appear that Illinois adjusted to our inside running game, and started to slow us down. When Denard went out injured, things got a little dicey. Then, JT Floyd picked off Scheelhaase and almost returned it for six. When Gardner threw for a TD shortly after that, the game was basically over. Illinois was beaten by our backup QB again.

Trash Cans Full of Dirt

• JT FLOYD!
• Mike Martin lead us with 9 tackles. That’s right, an interior defensive lineman lead us with NINE tackles. I’m going to miss that guy. He also got half a sack and 2 QHs. Roh also had 2 QHs. We were QH’ing Scheelhaase all game long.
• Back to Floyd. He’s been a punching bag on this blog and I’ve thought that was a little unfair, but what do I know, I only watch the game once. I hope the “JT Floyd is not a good corner” meme can die a quick and sudden death after today. He had 4 tackles, an interception that put the game away, and 2 pass breakups. I also didn’t notice him whiffing on any tackles.
• Desmond Morgan was second in tackles with 8, including the aforementioned de-cleater. Can I have 3 more years of that, please?
• VAN BERGEN!!! He gets three of these “!,” one for each of his TFLs, that included 2.5 sacks for 27 yards. On one of his sacks he proved that Lewan is not the only one who likes to ride donkeys.
• The first time Illinois was in our territory, there was 1:45 left in the third quarter.
•  
•  
• Just wanted to let that sink in for a minute. 
• The Team had 6 TFLs, 4 of which were sacks, 5 passes broken up, and the 4 QHs. Yes, Illinois’ offense is struggling, but our guys still needed to go out there and make plays and they did. I can’t see Martinez or Miller doing that much better throwing than Scheelhaase did. We’ll need to stop their run games, but it will be nice having those games at home. Not to jinx things, but 10-2 is still a distinct possibility, and that starts with defense.

Filthy

• I apologize to Touss for that “china in a bull store” crack last week. Touss was in Bull-mode all afternoon. He had 27 carries for 192 yards. That works out to 7.1 yards per carry. He had a 65 yard run that set the tone for the first half.
• Denard had two nice touchdown runs, but was otherwise held in check by the Illini.
• I know “Molk” doesn’t show up in the boxscore, but 223 NET YARDS RUSHING against a good rush defense does, and a lot of that is attributable to one David Molk. What a game he had.

San Diego49ers

• Odoms caught two for 46 yards. One was a 27 yard TD that put the game away. I’ve always liked Odoms, and I couldn’t be happier for him.
• Koger caught two, one for 40 yards where he dragged the DB for the last 10.

Big John R. Studd Referee Section

• The linesman was Tripp Sutter. Tripp, I assume you are a grown man. Why are we still going with, “Tripp?”
• Michigan had 4 penalties for 29 yards, and Illinois was flagged for 4 penalties and 25 yards.
• After last week, it was nice not having to complain about the refs, but man were there a bunch of replays.
• I think the lesson we learned from the Iowa game is that you can get a little physical with the wideouts and sometimes get away with it.
• I thought they missed a helmet-to-helmet hit that knocked out Denard, and a few other late hits on Illinois, but all-in-all, there’s nothing to complain about this week.

Hexadecimal Points

• Normal jerseys from both sides. I will say that I find orange to be a complementary color, like white, grey, yellow, and maize. I don’t think you should wear a complementary color with white pants. It’s not a good look, but Illinois has to concede blue to us, forcing them into the orange unis, and making them look like an orange creamsicle.
• 2H Matthew Cavanaugh had 2 tackles and 5G Frank Clark had one, and gave up the edge, again. Cavanaugh is making the most of his ST play. That guy always ends up making a couple tackles.
• #24, Delonte Hollowell, didn’t show up in the boxscore, but he made a huge play on special teams. On one of our punts, the Illini returner muffed the catch. Before he had a chance to cover the ball, Hollowell nailed him. It was a nice, clean hit that allowed McColgan to recover the fumble.

Derpan Meyer

• Announcers were Justin Kutcher and Craig James.
• Referring to Illinois’ offensive line, Craig James said, and I quote, “They’re athletic and I watch them, and the eye candy of their offensive line is there.” Hey, Illini linemen, if Craig asks you for a post-game interview, you should probably politely decline. And Craig, when the third thing that shows up on Google when you search for Craig James is “Craig James killed 5 hookers,” you probably shouldn’t talk about linemen as eye candy.
• When I found out Craig was announcing our game, I decided NOT to use the “Craig James killed 5 hookers” angle {allegedly, I know, I know,} but when you throw a fat one over the plate like that, you leave me no choice.
• Craig James called Reilly O’Toole, “Freshman O’Toole.” That’s fitting.

Random, as Yet Unnamed, Bullets

• I’m not sure which name is better, Reilly O’Toole, or Pat Nixon-Youman. On the one hand, you’ve got “Reilly O’Toole.” On the other, you’ve got a former First Lady with a great Chris Berman name, “Pat Nixon You-Da-man!” And let’s not forget Illinois DB Supo Sanni.
• Illinois, after getting only one first down in the first half, actually had one more first down than we did, 15-14. But when you only accrue 37 yards rushing, you are usually not going to win the game. Illinois averaged 1.1 yards per carry. I’m giggling.
• Total yards, UofM 362, Ill 214. Big Plays! We had ‘em, they didn’t. Their longest run was 13 yards. Mr. Kovacs, please stay healthy.
• Net yards per punt, UofM 32.2, Ill 34.7. Net yards per kickoff, UofM 49.2, Ill 50. A push on special teams? I’ll take it every time.

* The point of this paragraph is to admit to Illinois that they are our rivals, in the same way that Minnesota and San Diego State are. In other words, not really.

Disclaimer: I am not a football coach, football player, or football commentator. My analysis is purely amateur. That said, MGoUser joeyb and I were at the game today, so I figured I'd share my thoughts on DT Matt Godin and ATH Drake Johnson after DCC's manhandling of Pioneer:

• When Ace said Drake Johnson 'was' the Pioneer offense... man, he wasn't kidding. Drake got every carry on the first two possessions, and then lined up as a wildcat QB for most of the rest of the game. From that position he would hand off, run, and throw with about equal frequency.  I think that this was mostly an attempt to work around the aggressive DCC defensive line. He was also their main kick returner (more on that later), and handled the punting duties as well.
   
• DCC's D-line is either very good, or Pioneer's O-line is very bad. Every single pass attempt ended in an incompletion, interception, or sack. Johnson was never really able to find any holes- most of his yardage came on two carries for 12 and 9 yards. While some of this was definitely Godin being Godin, a lot of DCC's dominance came from their right-side defensive end.
   
• While it was tough to really see Drake's talents on display, he did have a few touches that weren't blown up right away. He seems to be a one-crease-and-go kind of guy, not really interested in dancing or cutting back unless the cutback lane was gapingly open.
   
• I don't think he's going to take over the halfback passing duties from Smith anytime soon- he had a few passes to 'relatively' open guys that went to Tacopants instead- but he's got decent arm strength.
   
• On kickoff returns, he has the nasty habit of catching the ball over his head rather than setting up behind it so he can get his momentum going forward. He didn't drop any, though, so... good hands? He had three kick returns.
   
• The first he took at the goal line and hit a major crease on the right sideline for about 40 yards. Once he got through the first line, he was off. Had 2 guys to beat to the end zone, the first one knocked him OOB. He never slowed down or looked to cut.
   
• The second he took at about the five, the coverage was a lot better. He had no hole to hit, but that didn't stop him from running straight into the pile and getting dropped at around the 20. Maybe he thought he could just plow through them, but I would like him to try and set up a block and maybe reverse it.
   
• The third, he started left and had nothing, so he cut back right and got about 25 yards. Looked much more like a collegiate return.
   
• As a route runner, he only had around three or four snaps, but showed off his speed and actually ran some nice crisp routes. Quick to get out of his break and got separation on a few post routes. If his QB had any time, they could have thrown to him.
   
• Matt Godin played LT on every DCC offensive snap save the last few. Since we're recruiting him as a DT, I won't spend much time talking about his blocking, but I will note that he had a really hard time finding anyone in the second level to block. His best snaps were when he had ends lined up directly over him, but those came few and far between as DCC often lined up a tight end to his side. He took a lot of plays off on offense when the run wasn't to his side.
   
• As a DT, I know I'll sound like every other football commenter ever, but man... pad level, pad level, pad level. Sure, he's four inches taller than everyone else out there, but his stance pre-snap was mostly bent at the waist, not the knees. Unofficially, I had him with four tackles, three right at the line of scrimmage.
   
• As I mentioned before, DCC's D-line was in the backfield all game. Most of the passing pressure came from the ends, but Godin was consistently pushing single blocks back on passing downs. On runs, he seemed content to hold people right at the line, whether he was being single or double blocked.
   
• His best play by far came in the third quarter. The play was a run off the left guard, Godin was lined up outside the right guard. Off the snap, the RG dove at Godin, trying to cut him. Godin took a half-step back and pushed the RG down, ran over him and wrapped up Drake in the backfield, tackling right at the line for no gain.
   
• The worst thing I saw about Godin, though, was his effort. There were far too many plays where he'd simply stop playing after making his initial move off the line, whether on offense or defense. Hoke is gonna have to coach some serious effort into this guy. He's got all the physical tools to be a standout, but needs some serious technical and mental refining.