Diaries

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Finally, THE KNOWLEDGE has come back to MGoBlog
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yes
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THE KNOWLEDGE hasn't visited these pages in a while, but there have been many interesting developments on late that have led to uncertainty about the future
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As everyone knows, whenever a topic of great interest to Michigan fans arises, THE KNOWLEDGE arrives to provide concrete information about the future
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THE KNOWLEDGE has hence made his appearance now
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yes
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the first question THE KNOWLEDGE will tackle is regarding the expected sanctions from the NCAA
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many people believe that the NCAA will add on minor penalties to those self-imposed by Michigan, and that will be end of it
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however, these people are wrong
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yes
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THE KNOWLEDGE guarantees that NCAA will reply stating that the self-imposed sanctions are too much, and will recommend easing on these
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yes
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the first question THE KNOWLEDGE will tackle is regarding the conference expansion plans

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what the vast majority of folks do not know is that Texas, Oklahoma and ATM have already agreed to join the Big Ten
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yes
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The Big Ten is now deciding on who the 15th and 16th teams must be. the choices are between Nebraska+Missouri Vs Pitt+Rutgers
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in all likelihood, it will be the former. this decision will be made in the next few days
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Pac 10 officials do not know this, and are stupidly trying to woo half the Big 12
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yes
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The Big Ten conference will be re-named as well. THE KNOWLEDGE shall soon reveal this info as well
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as usual, there will always be some folks that do not believe what THE KNOWLEDGE has to say, but they just need to wait and watch these predictions come true
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THE KNOWLEDGE shall soar
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and leave all doubters in a trail of dust
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yes
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PS: in the previous post or two by THE KNOWLEDGE, some people have wondered if THE KNOWLEDGE is a different person because there is an underscore involved
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these people are idiots, and do not understand THE KNOWLEDGE. all they need to do is read the posts of THE KNOWLEDGE
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yes
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The posts similar to this one will become a regular weekly update, as they've received positive feedback. Monday will most likely be the day that they come out, unless I figure out a better day during the season. Anyway, on with the show:

Andre Yruretagoyena

6'5", 260 lbs.

Offensive Tackle/Guard

Scottsdale, Arizona

As everyone knows, Andre is a former teammate of Craig Roh and Taylor Lewan. Andre told me recently that he would like to make it up to Michigan for his official visit for the Michigan State game. This isn't set in stone, and needs to be discussed with his parents and coach since it's during the season. But if all goes as planned, that's the weekend he'll be up.

Andre was recently in California, and got the chance to stop by USC, which is one of his top schools. Nothing will be known as far his decision, or top school, until he takes his visits. I will admit that the distance to Michigan makes me nervous. All the other schools in his list (Oregon—his dad lives close by—and USC) are closer to home or family.

Mickey Johnson

6'1", 310 lbs.

Defensive Tackle

Covington, Louisiana

When I spoke with Mickey recently he told me that he has enough interest in Michigan to consider them for an official visit. He didn't want to say that he would 100% use one of his five visits on the Wolverines, but he's giving Michigan serious consideration. Officials can't happen until September, so he'll have plenty of time to figure it out. An interesting note on Mickey: he's not originally from Louisiana, so he doesn't have the deep-rooted interest in LSU that most kids from his area have.

At this point I believe he ends up at a school outside of Louisiana.

Ed Davis

6'4", 215 lbs.

Outside Linebacker

Detroit, Michigan

Ed has been on Michigan's radar for awhile now, and he thought he had a great showing at this weekend's one-day camp. Not only did he perform well on the field, but he also got a chance to have a good conversation with the coaches afterwards. He's really hoping he gets an offer sometime soon. The coaches will review the tape from the camp and go from there. This could go either way, as far as an offer being extended. Linebacker recruiting is going well for Michigan. It's not completely necessary to get the offer out right away, assuming that Davis would commit to Michigan with the offer in hand.

Nick Temple

6'0", 200 lbs.

Outside Linebacker

Indianapolis, Indiana

Speaking of linebackers, here's a new name to add to the list. Temple plays for Warren Central, in Indiana, and was recently nominated to the Army All American game. Warren Central has quite a few D1 recruits, amongst them Kris Harley and Kiaro Holts, and sent Chris Graham to Michigan a few years ago.

Nick is really hoping for a Michigan offer and said they are is definitely high on his list. He's been in contact with Coach Tall. The coaches are currently reviewing his film. Temple believes the Michigan coaches will extend an offer soon. Take a look at his highlight video:

Tony Posada

6'6", 315 lbs.

Offensive Tackle

Tampa, Florida

Tony plays for the powerhouse Plant team in Florida and is one of the better offensive line recruits in the country. He still maintains that Michigan is high on his list after backing off an early statement that they were his outright leader, and will be coming up to Ann Arbor sometime this summer. He's not sure of the exact date, but he's shooting for a commitment by the end of the summer so it needs to be soon. Tony has already seen Florida and USF, but is unsure of what other stops he'll make before his decision.

Despite the distance, Michigan has a really good shot here. He's quiet, and doesn't like to tell too much, but he always speaks highly of Michigan. A Florida offer would change that.

OTHER ITEMS

• An interview with Pat Flavin after he attended Michigan's one day camp.
• Michigan does not appear in Deanthony Arnett's top seven.
• OH LB Sean Duggan will visit Thursday.
• PA DE Desimon Green, teammate of PA LB Branden Jackson, has picked up an offer.
• A fuller picture of Michigan's one-day camp.

[ed: bump.]

Pulling the content a little closer to home this week in an effort to keep a higher R squared value with the MGoBlog readers!

As always, this analysis only considers games between two D1 opponents and takes only plays during competitive game situations into account.

Not all great offenses are created equally

If we are going to know what it takes to become a great offense under Rich Rodriguez, we must first know what it will look like, because great offenses can take on many different appearances.  Below is a play success distribution for my top rated offense last year (Georgia Tech, option baby), the top passing offense (Captain Leach Texas Tech) and a look at West Virginia from 2007, Rodriguez’s last year at the helm.  I went ahead and threw in the BCS’s worst, Washington St, just for comparison.

The Paul Johnson option is working with big plays, rather they are taking out the bad plays.  Over three-quarters of Georgia Tech’s plays go for positive yardage.  This balances out no strong tendency towards big plays.  The end result is old school football: lots of long drives and moving the chains. 

At the Captain’s helm, Texas Tech had nearly a quarter of all of their plays go for no gain.  As always, there are tradeoffs.  For Tech they came in the form of the 10-20 yard gain.

Under Rodriguez, West Virginia saw something different than either of those two.  Even with a run-pass split close to Georgia Tech, the distribution of the spread 'n' shred was much different than the Option.  Where the Yellowjackets saw a heavy dose of positive but small gains, the Mountaineers had a solid lead in everything from 4-20 yards.  The end results where similar with both teams producing touchdown drives with regularity, but the path was much longer for Georgia Tech.  West Virginia’s ability to get the somewhat big play allowed them to shorten drives, add possessions to the game and eliminate some of the variance through an increase in scoring chances.

How close are we?

As everyone knows, we are much closer coming in to this year than we were last year.  Here is another chart to support that notion.

There are many charts to look at that show the dreadfulness of 2008, so we won’t dwell on that.  What is becoming clear is that the shape of 2009 is becoming quite similar to West Virginia 2007.  The big difference, and its a big one, is that Michigan still has a lot of plays going for no gain, where West Virginia was able to get 5+ yards out of those same plays.

If Michigan is going to mirror the West Virginia offensive success, it appears to have a made very clear first step last season. 

How does this compare to previous years?

The biggest difference between the Carr era and the Rodriguez era in terms of yardage gained distribution is the passing game bump from the Carr era in the 10-20 yard gain range.  The Rodriguez system is more geared towards to the 4-9 yard gains where the Carr offense excelled in the 0-3 and 10-20 yard ranges.

What does this mean for 2010?

The cliché: Take the Next Step. 

It looks like framework of what Rodriguez wants to do is in place after two rough years, but the execution is still behind his days at West Virginia.  The offensive line now has two years in the system and for the first time there is a quarterback (in fact two!) who have both experience and talent. As I noted in a previous diary, a jump from average in 2009 to good in 2010 is certainly a good possibility and with a break or two and improved quarterback play, it could go from average to great.

I just got off the phone with DeAnthony Arnett's brother, Ralph, who helps DeAnthony with his recruitment. They have a solid group of schools that make up his top six, and there will only be one school that could be added.

The top six is (in no order), USC, Cal, Oklahoma, MSU, Tennessee, and Iowa. The wildcard that could be thrown in, if they offer, is Miami.

Apparently, the recent quarterback commit to Miami, Teddy Bridgewater, really likes DeAnthony, and wants him at Miami. The only reason Miami hasn't offered yet is because their recruiting coordinator left, and coach Shannon never got to finish watching his film. It seems like they might be a big player, if the offer comes.

Ralph told me his take on everything with Michigan and DeAnthony is that at the end of the day, he has to do what's best for him, and he doesn't feel that offense will get him to the next level. He dropped Notre Dame for the same reasons, and said the only spread he would want to play in is Oklahoma's. It has nothing to do with the coaches at Michigan, who they think very highly of, or any other reason. Both Ralph and DeAnthony think that Rich Rod will have a lot of success at Michigan, it's just not the place for him to be a big time receiver, like he wants to be.

If you're a smoker, plan to hold off for a few hours whenever you come to a Michigan Football game this year:

[Press Release]

Michigan Stadium to go smoke-free in 2010 season

The University of Michigan Athletic Department will make Michigan Stadium a smoke-free zone when the 2010 season opens against Connecticut Sept. 4.

"We have allowed individuals to smoke on the concourse in the past but with the new renovations and the university's commitment to become a smoke-free campus in 2011, we decided it was in the best interest of everyone to institute the change now," said U-M Director of Athletics Dave Brandon. "The move will ensure a healthier environment for all fans attending Wolverine football games."

Smoking already was not permitted inside Michigan Stadium's seated-bowl area. Now the smoke-free environment will extend to everything inside the gates of the Big House.

In April of 2009, The University of Michigan announced its commitment to become a smoke-free environment in July 2011. The change aligns perfectly with the institution’s goal to improve the health of the U-M community. Since the change was announced, thousands of students, faculty and staff have provided feedback regarding the roll out of the plan to ensure it occurs in a thoughtful, inclusive and respectful manner.

Subcommittees which include smokers, former smokers and never-smokers are carefully considering the implications for student life, faculty and staff, grounds and facilities, and visitors to the University.

The idea to have the university go entirely smoke-free began with student complaints, and it is one more step along a path set in the 1980s, noted Robert Winfield, M.D., the university’s chief health officer and co-chair of the Smoke-free Initiative committee along with Kenneth Warner, dean of the School of Public Health. In 1987, the university adopted a ban on smoking in buildings, (with exceptions for some residence halls) and in university vehicles. In 1998, the U-M Health System prohibited smoking on its grounds and in public spaces, and in 2003, the student-led Residence Halls Association eliminated smoking from all resident halls.

The U-M will join the University of Iowa and Indiana University, both of which implemented their smoke-free campuses in 2008. In all, more than 260 campuses in the United States and elsewhere have gone smoke-free.

For more information on the smoke-free initiative, go to http://www.hr.umich.edu/smokefree/

[/Press Release]

Not surprising, to say the least. Also, probably a welcome change for some (most?).