"It's a lot easier being a drug dealer than an AAU coach" - this guy. Tell me something I don't know. I mean, don't think but have never tried either.
Preface: I’m bored. I have a lot of time on my hands. If there are ideas for future betterments please post them and I shall learn. The PSU thing is just a small preview to hold you over for the real PSU stuff.
Did you know: Nathaniel Joseph "Nate" Montana, born in 1989, is the second member of his family to be backup quarterback at Notre Dame (his father, Joe, played there from 1974-78)
- Denard was injured for the 5th in 7 games. Someone’s gotta say it , say it , and say it some more...I’m not debating on his touches, but this is something to keep an eye on.
- Molk: Nothing new on him. He should be back.
- Martin: Ditto Molk
- Shaw: Should be back this week.
- Fitz is still questionable. However, he is practicing.
Analysis: the team should have 4/5 returning. Beware the false returns though (they occurred to Tate last year, and will hopefully occur to Tacopants). Often players come back to play, but play injured, and are incapable of fulfilling their duties.
- Boldin: questionable
- Bani Gbadyu: questionable
- Gerald Hodges: questionable
- Michael Mauti: Back
- Eric Latimore: doubtful
- Jack Crawford: doubtful
Analysis: They will be playing with lots of injuries. Really, not much to say here besides things like that. I also believe that I missed a few injuries to the OL, but I can’t find links.
Denard’s improvement on passing:
Big thing to watch for as games come. Denard’s passing currently is doing things like this. He’s still on pace for 1879 Rushing Yards and 2276 passing, however teams are starting to key in on his lack of a long range passing game.
They are doing the right thing: in two games he’s got 4 interceptions and only rushing 191 yards on 4.9 YPC. He had topped 191 in the ND (258) and Indiana (217) games so yes, that is slowing him down. Let’s see how well he does this week. It’s important because:
- We will know more about if he can throw it well enough to keep D’s honest.
- This is a big step to make us a BTC contender for next year; we need that deep ball threat.
Denard is already a proven runner. My goal for his passing stats at the end of this year would be:
- One 35-yard completion each game (not including YAC). This would prove the kid can throw the ball downfield.
- Completion percentage of 65-70% When defenses are keying on his running, the receivers are open and Denard puts up ludicrous completion rates. But his INs have gone way up recently. Hopefully a week off has settled him back down.
- Less than 1 sack/game. This will mean that he's not taking all day thinking back there, and understands the routes better. Also, with his speed, this shouldn't be happening anyway.
This week we will likely hear about how Campbell will/won’t be moved. RR said in a presser that it will be decided over the week. I haven’t read anything about it during the bye so I’d assume we’ll hear about it soon. This will again stir up a lot of debate. My take: We need the DL more than OL. Why?
- After Khoury’s showing, we have more depth at OL than at DL.
- We had more even before Khoury’s showing.
- Who would the back-ups at DL be for next year? Ash and Talbott, the planet and the stick. Both would be a huge step down from Martin. This position needs a real blue chip (*waves hand like Obi wan* at Jernigan: "You want to come. Yes.")
- Even if Quinton Washington is moving to the "dark side," our DL needs bodies. This is a position where the 2-deep guys get a lot of playing time, and we're going to lose at least three (Banks, Patterson, Sagesse) at the end of the year, if not a crushing fourth (Martin). I, for one, am not yet ready to give up on having an upperclassman 5-star on the DL depth chart next year.
PSU/time to get happy
(you see what I did there? [Ed-M: Actually, no.])
PSU's Passing Game:
Penn State's offense truly is offensive.
- 18.2 PPG gets them dead last in the Big Ten.
- Boldin (or back-up) can not throw. (209 YPG, 8th best after week 7.)
- 8 INTs is second to ILL’s 9.
- Royster averages 64 YPG.
- Injuries to Boldin spell trouble for an already.
After facing a gauntlet of capable upperclassman (Chappell, Cousins, Stanzi), our secondary gets to take a major breather against Penn State's three-headed fail. Michigan will face one of these guys:
- True freshman returning from injury who has been pretty bad all year
- Sophomore who lost job to above freshman
- Paul and Kathy McGloin run a flower business in Scranton, Pa. They are very proud of their son Matthew, a redshirt sophomore who walked on the Pennsylvania State football team and accomplished what neither high-profile recruit above him could: throw two touchdowns against the only secondary in the Big Ten that might be worse than Michigan's. Unfortunately Paul and Kathy could not make it to Minneapolis to see their son play. Such is the flower business.
Did you know: Former Michigan starting quarterback Nick Sheridan is the son of Miami Dolphins linebackers coach Bill Sheridan.
Martin was not Martin against Iowa, but he was Martin enough that he was cleared to play, which means his injury (thanks MSU cheap shot) could very well be all healed. With less to worry about from the passing game, expect Michigan to use a 4-man rush more often, allowing us to generate some...what's it called again? oh yes, pressure.
Pressure+freshman/backup/walk-on QB=int (see ND game).
PSU's Running Game.
Our run D has DEMENS!!!! I have written ad nauseam about this kid, suffice it so say our run D should be good (against the "TURRIBLE" that is PSU).
Here I'm hoping that the bye week will help Michigan as well, mostly so the freshmen can work on tackling, but also because it gives the coaching staff some time to make/solidify some roster moves (Demens practicing with the ones may convince Mouton he doesn't have to do everything by himself). Add the Bye Week Advantage and you get a better D. Add in Royster and Boldin/back-up and you get a good D. Add in
Vinopal (possible switch to starter) [Edit: Cam is still the starter] as the second white DB and you get a lot of questions, but hopefully more answers.
Prediction: we let up less than 350 against Penn State. I know that sounds high, but I just see them getting yards somehow.
- 1.) We have DENARD
- 2.) They have INJURRRRRED
Not really much to say here. They lost their 2 DEs (who are questionable or doubtful). They have a hodge-podge in their LBs that is about as bad as our secondary stuff. We also have Shaw and Molk coming back.
The only interesting part will be what the new DEs do. I’m assuming you’ll see them just sit down on EVERY zone-read (Mid-line please!!!). Their scoring D is ranked 4th in the Big Ten, but #1 is Iowa and #2 in MSU (#3s and 5 are still on our schedule, of course). We gained 899 against those two teams combined.
The thing to take away is that we can score on them, but we need to convert (like we failed to do against Iowa and MSU.) BUT WAIT. They are LAST in the Big Ten in red-zone D. You remember the Red Zone, where we lost the last two games with turnovers? Hope emerges. Also, hope that Hopkins gets playing time. I'm with Brian in that Smith's "just a guy" [Ed-M: albeit one who can run a killer route from the slot]. Hopefully this is the week that Michael "Don't call me Carlos Brown" Shaw and Stephan "Rhymes with Chiffon" Hopkins are the two for me after Iowa.
Prediction: 500+ yards of offense. 400 to Denard. Smith plays more than Hopkins and I cry inside.
Due to the not-overwhelming-but-still-pleasant response from last week’s Bruce Willis montage, I figured I would try this week to both recap the season so far in UM football, plus this past week’s prominent games, with one of America’s most storied thespians. Please feel free to comment away on the quality in the, um, well, comments section.
The Season So Far, or as I like to call it, the 6+1 Degrees of Kevin Bacon Recap
After two disheartening seasons, the talk at the end of last season was that Rich Rodriguez needed to start winning or else it would be the
for him in Ann Arbor. Reports during the offseason pointed to the offense making strides even while the defense suffered from a lack of depth and a dearth of talent at key positions. All was relatively quiet until
could be felt emanating miles away in a nondescript building in Detroit. This rumbling was caused by the furious digging of one misguided newspaper’s attempt to generate headlines (and relevance) by “exposing” the deep-rooted NCAA violations going on in Schembechler Hall. RR was characterized as a criminal guilty of
for what amounted to a couple of extra hours of stretching and some tangential football personnel watching unofficial practices and weight sessions. Undaunted by reality, pundits and reporters across the various media streams let loose with a flood of chest-thumping and invectives about the “transgressions” going on under RR,
with false accusations and fears of the
being handed down by the NCAA. The Internet’s reaction was, perhaps unsurprisingly, split, with some treating these accusations as gospel while others accused the media of being actors in a conspiracy that would make the
investigations seem like child’s play.
But as we all remember, not much came of it. Despite the accusations and rabid media treatment, the truth ultimately came out, leaving everyone with the impression that the author of the “expose” was just a
, and soon the focus turned to RR
with Denard Robinson as the starting QB. Perhaps not surprisingly, the message boards and radio stations were a veritable
of individuals questioning the wisdom in this move. But on a
day in the beginning of September, Robinson and the rest of the Wolverines cast aside the tumultuous
and blasted Connecticut. Next came Notre Dame and another epic performance by Robinson, as the sporting world began to wonder if he was UM’s
And as the team raced out to a 5-0 start despite games that would leave no fans
there was a sense that this season would not be the like the two previous, that UM was back as a national power.
Unfortunately, the last two games have tempered these expectations, as it became clear that this team, gutted by injuries, transfers, and other player departures, was lacking in
especially on the defensive side of the ball. The pundits and opposing fans, so quiet during the 5-0 start, are back out in full force, questioning whether RR will ever be able to win at UM. From their high horses,
apparently so clear that even the smell of hypocrisy cannot reach them, they have already begun the countdown to RR’s demise, even with nearly 1/2 a season to still be played.
for this team is probably somewhere between the 5-0 start and the 2-game losing streak.
this season is already a success. With youth dominating both sides of the ball, UM still features one of the most dynamic offenses in the country and a defense that, well, only sometimes drives me to nearly jump into a
Every Saturday so far
is filled with an optimism, a sense of possibility that was missing the past two years. It is the air UM fans used to take for granted, and even though this season probably won’t ever by confused with some of the
seasons of years past, it is hard not to see a bright future for this team no matter how much of a UM-hating
you may be.
This Week’s Games
It was a weekend of upsets,highlighted by the third #1 team in a row to fall to a ranked opponent. This time, the Oklahoma Sooners were knocked off by one of the
in the Big 12, Missouri. With yet another #1 falling, it begs the question how the BCS will shake out at the end of the year, especially with non-AQ teams like Boise St. and TCU
beneath an invisible glass ceiling by the BCS computers and pollsters [Ed-M: Not to mention a schedule that's not...how shall we say...
* Coming off a 3-game win streak and winds in South Bend once again filled with a
of a Return to Glory, spirits were high at Notre Dame as they welcomed the Midshipmen of Navy. 367 yards on the ground and a thoroughly dominating 35-17 win by Navy a couple of hours later, the college football world was reminded that anyone trumpeting the reemergence of the Domers as a national power was simply
* Other major upsets this weekend included
at two former stops for Greg “touch of GERG” Robinson as Iowa State besting Texas for the first time (!!) in team history, while a Scott Schafer-led Syracuse defense (!!!) held West Virginia to 14 points in a stunning 19-14 win. As with politics, I will leave the
discussion about the team’s defensive performance to others.
* In other games of note, both Iowa and LSU suffered from
at the coaching position, as questionable coaching decisions by the Mad Hatter and Kirk Ferentz late in their games may have cost them wins against Wisconsin and Auburn, respectively. Senator Tressel went
against Purdue after last week’s demoralizing loss to the Badgers, drubbing the Boilermakers 49-0. The only disappointment was that the Vest didn’t break out this routine on the sidelines late in the game. Hey, hey! What's this I see? I thought this was a party. LET'S DANCE!
Mark Dantonio and Michigan State continued their unlikely run toward a Big 10 title and MNC berth (!!!!) as they rallied late against Northwestern, who blew the upset even though the Spartans once down 17 points. With only Iowa likely standing between MSU and a perfect season, I will now fill my body with
lest I be subjected to even more Sparty gloating.
* To no one’s surprise, the first game in which the Minnesota Golden Gophers were
after the dismissal of Tim Brewster ended rather badly, with Penn State earning its first Big 10 win rather handily despite being outgained by 80 yards. Perhaps a eccentric former Texas Tech coach will be walking the sidelines next year, though in that case I would like to see a name change to the Golden
Action since last rankings:
10-17-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Trayion Durham.
10-18-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Ray Ball.
10-20-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from AJ Jordan.
10-22-10 Illinois gains commitment from Ralph Cooper.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||ESPN Avg|
Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).
|#1 Ohio State - 17 Commits|
No change for the Buckeyes.
|#2 Notre Dame - 19 Commits|
|George Atkinson III||S||CA||5.8||4||79|
|#3 Nebraska - 13 Commits|
New procedural note: ESPN has not ranked JuCo players in past classes, so it would be unfair for me to continue including Stafford as a 45 in the Huskers' ESPN average. The Huskers' ESPN average in the table above includes only the other 12 guys.
|#4 Michigan State - 16 Commits|
Nothing new for MSU.
|#5 Michigan - 12 Commits|
No change for Michigan.
|#6 Indiana - 22 Commits|
|#7 Iowa - 15 Commits|
|#8 Northwestern - 13 Commits|
No change for Northwestern.
|#9 Wisconsin - 16 Commits|
Badgers pick up a trio from Ohio, bumping them up.
|#10 Minnesota - 15 Commits|
Will Minnesota start hemorrhaging commits with Brewster being fired?
|#11 Illinois - 17 Commits|
The Illini gain commitment from Ralph Cooper. ESPN loves him, but the other sites... don't. The sites are still in disagreement over whether WR Hayden Daniels is committed. Scout has removed him from the Illinois commit list, so I won't add him yet. Justin DuVernois gets 2 stars from Scout.
|#12 Penn State - 4 Commits|
They have to get some commits sooner or later, right?
|#13 Purdue - 7 Commits|
No change for Purdue.
Preface: I am not Brian. I am not Magnus. I am not “dear lord baby Jesus”. But, and I say this with great happiness, I am not Matt Millen either. Seriously tho, If you don’t like what I say please tell me why and discuss rationally. Thank you. I will appreciate all the tips on how to not D*^P up. (read: “DERP up”) Also, I am negative by nature. I like Demens, but will overly criticize him because of Jinx paranoia/trying not to be a homer in analysis.
Thoughts on Demens:
I. Why he wasn’t playing early in the year:
“[I want to know if the attorney general] is preparing "criminal negligence" charges against Gerg and Co for playing Ezeh over Demens ?”
-In_Rod_I_Trust (no offense to you there, I actually thought this a funny way to sum most thoughts. Neg me if you don’t like the reference.)
While quotes like the one above were funny, everyone who thought GERG was stupid for not playing Demens needs to see this link
That sums up everything very well; no need to say more.
II. Whether he will help Mouton (and the D as a whole) this year:
My idea for this thread was partially started here. It’s an interesting thread. To analyze I want to :
- 1.) Take a UFR chart from all games and make a differential between Ezeh and Demens playing, and how well Mouton does with Demens in. (Before I even do this I will note that it will most likely be inconclusive.)
- 2.) Make a wild-ass assumption based on my thoughts on Demens.
- 3.) Wonder if there is really any better way to figure this out before Demens 2nd start.
1.) UFR CHARTING
I racked up from the data that says: My prediction was right! Inconclusive after limited PT. Mouton is a combined +4.5 with Demens in. His overall standing is at around +40-50. (My maths is bad, and I did it in Da Head.) This states to me that we don’t have enough information. However, we will still make predictions because that’s what bored fans do. I applaud this. I do this. I like this.
2.) ASSUMPTIONS AND PREDICTIONS
Demens really should make this D better. For those who said that Mouton would not do as well with a LB who actually played (read: will continue to over-run plays when unnecessary now that Demens is in) here's Da Responze:
a.) Demens>Obi. Defense with Demen>D with Obi.
b.) No chemistry issues. Why would there be?
c.) If in doubt return to "a.)"
3.) IS THERE A WAY TO MAKE THIS MORE RELIABLE?
Still wondering. Failing. Getting mad at failing. Moving on.
III. His strengths and weaknesses:
As has been well quoted on here: He is a run stuffer and not a pass protector. However, as per my Diary about his Iowa game and my Thread about his previous games’ PT, I believe I can shed more light on the subject. (No, I haven’t been stalking him on face book or tweeter….but can anyone give me the link?)
- 1.) He is WAY better than Obi on the run D. He hits holes, can actually read the plays, and will tackle. Oh, I almost forgot….he doesn’t get pancaked. Listen to the commentators laugh at Obi. Then *cackle with knowing glee* when you never have to see this crap again
- 2.) From my perspective he bites a lot. I only played HS, but our team never bit like him. My data says he bit 8 times. This is based of my UFR and not Brian’s. I am not sure how much the average man bites, but I would suspect that the young, run-stuffer is biting more than most.
3.) He is slow when guarding WRs. But who the hell isn’t? Like we’re saying with the whole defense, give him time to figure this crap out. BUT….I don’t like him in zone. Either he’s bad at zone or I suck at analyzing. Me:Brian comparison comes to mind.
IV. How he (and the D will look next year):
Insert: The_Knowledge. Not working?!?!?! WTF? Ok, here’s my idea. Just Kidding. Oh, you’re hopes weren’t up?
V. My prediction for the rest of the year/WTF does this all mean:
Based on my assumptions I believe we will end up a top 90 team in overall D. (#90 is USC at 402 YPG.) This includes that we went against 5 bad teams, and includes the “TURRIBLE” that is PSU. It is also aware of Illinois’ “Ill” offense. It is also aware of OSU’s decent offense. (Oh, and Wiscy….I like whiskey.) However, we let up 388 against Iowa’s mediocre offense. Part of that was based on TOP (which we slightly won). Part of the TOP was how our O was slowed down. I think our O will be slowed down, and we will have more TOP. I think that our D will play better because Demens is better than Obi. These two points should be obvious. I also think that PSU and Purdon’t will give us a stats boost. Possibly we hold Illinois…I just don’t know enough about them. For better or worse, I’m predicting we jump in to the top 90 over the latter half of the season.
With some spare time before the NCAA tournament this year, I developed a predictive model to pick basketball games for my NCAA bracket pool (figured it was better than me picking) using a descriptive discriminant analysis, which essentially assesses the variables that discriminates between categorical variables (in this case, wins and losses). I experienced success with my NCAA basketball model (predicted 80-85% of the NCAA tournament games correctly), so I thought I would see how applicable it would be to college football. So, for the last few weeks I have been validating the model week to week against the Sagarin rating and have had the exact same predictive accuracy (65-70%...not as great as it could be, but I’m in the process of improving upon the model) in terms of expected outcomes (winners vs. losers). I figured it’s a good time to share with fellow MGoBloggers and I hope to make this as concise and readable as possible. Apologies ahead of time if some of the tables don’t show up right, as I’m not too sure how to embed the tables within the diary as well as others.
After assessing a variety of team statistics from the past few weeks (SOS, win percentage, turnover margin, offensive yards per play, defensive yards per play, having a home game, and so on…you name it I have it and have looked at it) on a national level (Division 1-A - FBS only), the team statistics that best predict weekly winners and losers are, in order of importance:
- Point Differential (avg points scored – avg points given up)
- Offensive Yards Per Play
- Defensive Yards Per Play
- Win Percentage
- Turnover Margin
Notable variables that were not important in determining weekly winners are 1) having a home game and 2) strength of schedule (probably too fluid of a variable right now, but could be predictive for bowl game winners at the end of the season).
Big Ten Rankings:
The Big Ten rankings for Week 9 are below. All of the variables in my model are presented in z-scores (-3 to 3) that were computed on a national level, with the higher the score the better for variables for which positive results are better (offensive yards per play, win percentage, turnover margin, and point differential). For the lone variable (defensive yards per play) that is inversely related to winning, having a lower value is better. The variable PREDSCOR is the output of the model, and the game winner is determined solely by the higher of the score between the two teams.
- My model does have us ranked a little higher, and Penn State a little lower than Sagarin. Sagarin indicates this game should be closer, while my model says there is more separation between Michigan and Penn State
- Illinois is ranked lower
- We’re in the middle of the pack in Big Ten (where we expected we might be)
Predictive Model Results for Week 9:
Michigan (1.21) at Penn State (-.05) = Michigan
Michigan State (3.40) at Iowa (2.65) = Michigan State
Northwestern (.43) at Indiana (-.97) = Northwestern
Purdue (-.88) at Illinois (.26) = Illinois
Ohio State (3.97) at Minnesota (-2.46) = Ohio State
Seems every time I tune in to a Penn State game this year, they're throwing deep passes on 1st down, and completing several for touchdowns. That can't be the norm, of course, but I figured there was something to that.
So, I did some digging and came up with these numbers. FWIW. I have no idea how they compare against any other Penn State team, or any other 2010 team, or any other team that ever has suited up in a football uniform at any level.
With that backdrop, here are Robert Bolden's passing stats so far:
* On first down, Bolden has a 15.4 YPC (and 8.2 YPA), while on other downs combined he has an 11.5 YPC (6.8 YPA).
* McGloin's first playing time of the year came Saturday at Minnesota, in relief of the apparently concussed Bolden. McGloin's positive stats were even more heavily weighted to 1st downs than Bolden's. On 1st downs he was 4/7 for 66 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT, and on other downs combined he was 2/6 for 10 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. Check out McGloin's long TD pass on the Tube. Very Sheridanian in the throwing effort and motion -- and appeared to be his throwing-distance max. Several of his incompletions were ugly, and the pick was a ridiculously bad decision. Shades of Utah.
* Oh. And Kevin Newsome has played only in garbage time, except Saturday at Minnesota, when he was in for one drive and wasn't asked to throw. On the year he is 2/4 for 15 yards on 1st down, and 3/9 for 34 yards on other downs. He has thrown neither a TD nor a pick. That is, Newsome has not been called on to throw one important pass all year. Smile, M fans.
* By my numbers, 44% of Penn State's passing yards (606 of 1,363) have come on 1st down. As have the majority (4/7) of its passing touchdowns.
* Based on these stats, occasional watching of PSU games, and poring over their play-by-play sheets this year, this Penn State team throws deep almost exclusively on first down, and has found success that way for TDs in three of the past four games (1 vs Temple, 0 vs Iowa, 1 vs Illinois, 2 vs Minn [Bolden and McGloin].
* The last time -- and the only time all season -- Bolden has thrown a TD NOT on 1st down was in the opener against I-AA Youngstown State, when he tossed two.
* Throwing on 1st down gives Penn State the best chance to protect its green QBs. And its best chance to move the ball through the air.
* PSU generally throws only short or very short passes on 2nd down. Hello, Ben Chappell.
* Good things generally don't happen when Penn State passes on 2nd or 3rd down, especially 3rd down: ergo the <40% 3rd-down conversion rate.
* NOTE TO GERG AND STAFF, AND ESPECIALY CAM GORDON: This is just a hunch -- but I suspect they've been passing more on 1st down against those defenses that cheat against the run on 1st down. Iowa doesn't, of course, so it's no surprise Bolden was highly ineffective passing on 1st down against the Hawkeyes (less than 50%). For UM this Saturday night, it might be wisest to either rush only 3 on 1st down, or bring the house occasionally on a suspected 1st-down pass, while always keeping Gordon deep -- eg, after a sudden change, or after two successive 1st downs on the ground, etc. Bolden isn't slow, but he's about as unsavvy/unaware in the pocket as any other true frosh. Sacks are there to be had, especially on long passing downs.
Agree? Disagree? Does this all amount to two-thirds of four-fifths of Eff-all?