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KISS...or...GEOGRAPHY WILL TRUMP COMPETITIVE BALANCE

By UMFootballCrazy — June 15th, 2010 at 5:03 PM — 35 comments
Filed under:
  • Conference Realignment
  • football

While it has been interesting to read all of the different solutions to dividing up the Big 10 (12) into two divisions and what the seasons will be like, my thought is that the powers who will actually decide this will do in the simplest way possible, that is, through geography.  Thus:

 

Big 10 East

 

Michigan

Ohio State

Penn State

Michigan State

Indiana

Purdue

 

Big 10 West

 

Nebraska

Iowa

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Illinois

Northwestern

 

Each team will play every divisional opponent every year = 5 games

Each team will play teams from the other division every other year = 3 games

The winner of the each division plays in the championship game = 1 game

[Edit] Four non-conference games = 4 games

 

[Edit] Total = 13 games

 

You ensure that the final game of the season is always a divisional game, possibly a rivalry game.  The powers that be will ignore the strength advantage (disadvantage?) that the Big 10 East has in favour of reduced travel costs for all the teams, both revenue and non-revenue.  If anything, the three top teams in each division battling it out to get to the conference game will be a plus.  This approach preserves rivalries and avoids seeing conference championship games between rivals in back to back weeks. 

 

Finally, it seems aesthetically correct to divide them this way.  It is a simple, straightforward approach has a likelihood of taking root and developing new rivalries, especially in the West…at least until we go to 16 teams and four four-team divisions and a two round conference playoff.  (This will eventually happen; the demand for dollars will demand more TV markets, whether sooner or later).

[EDIT] FWIW ... This is pretty much how they do it in the SEC... 

  • UMFootballCrazy's blog
  • 35 comments

Divisional Realignment and Proposed Schedule

By Seth — June 15th, 2010 at 10:46 AM — 47 comments
Filed under:
  • football

Well, now, that was fun, right?

For the duration of the next 10 minutes that the Big Ten is a 12-team conference, I thought I (as with everyone else on the board) would jump in with another divisional proposal.

Why should you take this divisional alignment more seriously than other divisional alignments?

Why, because:

  • Mine has statistics that show exactly how difficult each team's schedule will be for the next 10 years.
  • Mine has that exact schedule for the next 10 years.
  • Mine makes sure every real rivalry is played every year, except Illinois-Ohio State.
  • State groups (except Illinois/NW) and rival groups (Wis/Iowa/Minn) are preserved.
  • Mine makes sure you never go more than two seasons without seeing any conference opponent, and never see any opponent less than six times in 10 years.
  • Preserves "Rivalry Week" Week 13 games: Purdue-Indiana, Michigan-Ohio State, Iowa-Minnesota, Penn State-Michigan State (six years out of 10), and Illinois-Northwestern, and leaves Nebraska free that week to keep the Colorado rivalry going.
  • Kicks off the Big Ten season with minor rivalries like Nebraska-Iowa, Indiana-Michigan State, and Penn State-Minnesota.
  • Preserves opportunities to play Notre Dame early in the season for Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue (although in years they don't play Penn State, Michigan State will probably bump Michigan's game to Week 4).
  • You won't know this reading it, but unlike most divisional alignments, mine was written with an English accent.
  • This cool graphic:

A Ninth Conference Game

Adding a ninth game as a protected cross-divisional rivalry was the key in my mind to making a 12-team (if that's where it ends) conference work as a conference, rather than a loose partnership between two divisions. It freed me up to put rivals in separate divisions yet preserve their annual game, and to make the divisions split evenly (relatively) in talent.

The upside of a ninth conference game is it keeps the schools closely tied, and gives BTN better programming early in the season (better to show Michigan/Nebraska than one or a split of Michigan/MACrifice and Nebraska/NE-Omaha).

The downside is it necessarily decreases the number of wins in the conference overall -- 12 games against non-conf. foes will likely be like 10-2 or 9-3 for the Big Ten, whereas another conference game will total exactly 6-6 -- thus hurting the conference's overall BCS rating.

The Pac11Ten currently plays nine conference games. They are a separate case entirely, but it's well to point out that, despite what it may say in the record books, USC went to a lot of BCS championship games playing nine conference opponents. The extra losses probably cost them some bowl eligibility at the bottom, which fans won't mourn an erstwhile 6-6 team that finishes 5-7 but the conference certainly will.

How It Was Made

I broke my conferences up exactly how Delany described, starting by listing competitive balance on a tier level, then protecting rivalries, then geography. Before shouting, wait to see the protected rivalries in the ninth game.

First, I split the entire conference up into six Competitive Balance tiers. These tiers will serve as a value for calculating the expected difficulty of playing any of these teams over a 10-year span. They were assigned tier levels by recent and historical success, and duh -- if you want to dispute duh you are welcome to do so. The tiers as follows:

Tier 1: Michigan, Ohio State
Tier 2: Nebraska, Penn State
Tier 3: Wisconsin, Iowa
Tier 4: Purdue, Mich St.
Tier 5: Minnesota, Illinois
Tier 6: Northwestern, Indiana

So splitting those up we get:

1 2
Michigan (1) Ohio State (1)
Nebraska (2) Penn State (2)
Wisconsin (3) Iowa (3)
Mich St. (4) Purdue (4)
Minnesota (5) Illinois (5)
Indiana (6) Northwestern (6)

What I hate about his is Iowa is separated from Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota. So lets do some trading, but keep things fair: trade Nebraska (T2) and Indiana (T6) to the Woody division for Illinois (T5) and Iowa (T3):

Bo Woody
Michigan (1) Ohio State (1)
Wisconsin (3) Nebraska (2)
Iowa (3) Penn State (2)
Mich St. (4) Purdue (4)
Minnesota (5) Northwestern (6)
Illinois (5) Indiana (6)

I then decided on protected cross-divisional rivalries for each team, to be played the final week of the season (or rescheduled to an off-week if desired):

Michigan-Ohio St
Iowa-Nebraska
MSU-Indiana
Minn-PSU
Ill-NW

We end up with three of the top four programs in one division, but they get the return benefit of playing the conference's two weakest programs. Ultimately, though the rivals play each other every year, they do not come from the same schedules, and therefore the games are little harder to predict.

While different (the Woody, split between three haves and three have-nots will likely be a three-horse race every year, the Bo, with one power team and plenty of strong teams, will be more unpredictable)

This means there are five divisional opponents plus one static rival that each team plays every year, for a static schedule as follows:

Bo Division:

  Michigan Wisconsin Iowa Mich St. Minnesota Illinois
Div 1 Wisconsin Iowa Mich St. Minnesota Illinois Michigan
Div 2 Iowa Mich St. Minnesota Illinois Michigan Wisconsin
Div 3 Mich St. Minnesota Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Iowa
Div 4 Minnesota Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Iowa Mich St.
Div 5 Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Iowa Mich St. Minnesota
Rival Ohio State Purdue Nebraska Indiana Penn State Northwestern

 

Woody Division:

  Ohio State Nebraska Penn State Purdue Northwestern Indiana
Div 1 Nebraska Penn State Purdue Northwestern Indiana Ohio State
Div 2 Penn State Purdue Northwestern Indiana Ohio State Nebraska
Div 3 Purdue Northwestern Indiana Ohio State Nebraska Penn State
Div 4 Northwestern Indiana Ohio State Nebraska Penn State Purdue
Div 5 Indiana Ohio State Nebraska Penn State Purdue Northwestern
Rival Michigan Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin Illinois Mich St.

This gives each school a six-game annual conference schedule from between 3.00 to 4.00, meaning the max difference between regular schedules is that between playing nine Iowas instead of nine Purdues every year.

Considering the effect that the ups and downs of each program has, I would say this is a pretty acceptable level. Michigan's schedule is just as hard as Ohio State's; Penn State's locked-in schedule is the easiest:

Team Opp. AVG diff
Minnesota 3.00
Indiana 3.17
Iowa 3.33
Purdue 3.33
Northwestern 3.33
Michigan 3.50
Ohio State 3.50
Wisconsin 3.67
Illinois 3.67
Nebraska 3.67
Mich St. 3.83
Penn State 4.00

Remember, this isn't the final word on schedule strength, just the difficulty of the schedule that will be locked in every year. It doesn't say how hard each year will be, just that Penn State, for example, should not complain that their division contains Nebraska and OSU because those may be the only tough games they play all year. Minnesota can complain, but since when did people from Minnesota ever complain?

 

Adding Cross-Divisional Games

The way to finish this is to make sure the rest of the conference schedule will not undo all of this parity by, for example, giving Michigan Nebraska, Penn State and Purdue the same year that Iowa gets to skip Ohio State and Penn State. In this, we make sure the teams are spaced evenly in the rotation (something the Big Ten originally did when it added Penn State but it backfired when Northwestern got hard and Iowa tanked in the late '90s). Then it follows the same 10-year cycle that the Big Ten currently uses.

In this system, every conference rival is assigned an opponent number. So for Michigan, opponents are as follows:

X1: Northwestern
X2: Nebraska
X3: Indiana
X4: Penn State
X5: Purdue
Divisional 1: Illinois
Divisional 2: Iowa
Divisional 3: Wisconsin
Divisional 4: Mich St.
Divisional 5: Minnesota
X-Rivalry: Ohio State

This is basically your annual schedule, with two of the X games being absent, and the cross-divisional rivalry being played either in Week 4 or Week 13.

The X games are the opposite divisional games that switch off, so that in 2011 and 2012, we don't play our X4 and X5, in 2013-14 we don't play X1 and X2, in 2015-16 we skip X3 and X4, in 2017-18 it's X5 and X1, and in 2019-20 it's X2 and X3.

This way you will face every opponent at least six times in a decade, and never go more than two seasons without seeing a conference rival. For divisional rivals, it also establishes set weeks each season that you will face a certain team, which I think gives the schedule a bit more traditionalist feel if, e.g., Michigan and Michigan State always meet the first weekend of November, or the Little Brown Jug game is always played the week before Thanksgiving.

The way I have the schedules worked out, the full conference schedules end up varying year by year, but ultimately the variance is within one level: The hardest a schedule ever gets is 3.00 (for Northwestern in 2015-16, and Iowa and Minnesota in 2017-18), and the easiest it ever gets is 4.00 (for Nebraska in 2018-19, Wisconsin in 2017-18, and Penn State in 2011-12).

All told, the difficulty of each members' 10-year conference schedule is more affected by how good that team is more than anything else (Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, and Ohio State are bunched at the easy end because they can't have to play themselves).

Rank School Avg. Difficulty 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20
1 Indiana 3.24 3.11 3.11 3.56 3.11 3.33
2 Minnesota 3.27 3.22 3.56 3.22 3.00 3.33
3 Northwestern 3.29 3.22 3.56 3.00 3.56 3.11
4 Purdue 3.42 3.56 3.22 3.33 3.56 3.44
5 Illinois 3.44 3.56 3.22 3.44 3.78 3.22
6 Iowa 3.49 3.56 3.44 3.78 3.00 3.67
7 Mich St. 3.56 3.33 3.56 3.44 3.78 3.67
8 Wisconsin 3.58 3.44 3.56 3.44 4.00 3.44
9 Nebraska 3.64 3.44 3.78 3.56 3.44 4.00
10-tie Ohio State 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.78 3.67 3.56
10-tie Michigan 3.67 3.89 3.67 3.67 3.44 3.67
12 Penn St. 3.73 4.00 3.67 3.78 3.67 3.56

Most years, the schedules are fairly equivalent. Furthermore, the teams who tend to get outlyingly hard or easy schedules are those who have been historically worse at football. To those who care about schedule strength (Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State) the most, they have the least to complain about or be complained about. For those who get screwed the most (Indiana) they have the most to gain from having the bigger conference opponents visit more often.

To see how this plays out, follow the charts (higher is easier):

Bo Division:

 

Woody Division:

 

When We Play

In ordering the schedule, I put the three cross-divisional games first, followed by the divisional lineup, and then finally the Rivalry Week game. Other things preserved are Iowa and Wisconsin playing the 2nd to last week of the Big Ten season, IU/ILL at the end of the year, and several rivalry trophies.

I built the schedule originally into a 12-week program, then expanded by one week at the beginning of the season (the conference season is played in approximately the same time period today). Some of the cross-divisional static rivalries were moved to Week 4 to accomodate other rivalry games that week. This ended up pretty cool, since it allowed the Big Ten season to kick off with some trophies (Indiana-MSU) and foster new early-season rivalries (Iowa-Nebraska) that won't have to replace or interfere with more classic end-of-year matchups like Indiana-Purdue, Iowa-Minnesota, or Nebraska-Colorado.

Also, a few notes on Notre Dame scheduling: the 9th conference game means ND will have to accomodate teams when they are available, but there's really little that will change about the Irish's Michigan/MSU/Purdue lineup, except for when they play Purdue. Michigan fits nicely as Week 2 each year as is tradition. Michigan State can be Week 5 (I don't think they'll mind having Indiana as an annual tuneup first) on the six years they play Penn State; otherwise they will need to be Week 3 (their normal spot). For those four seasons that MSU doesn't play Penn State, there are several options: Purdue can play Notre Dame Week 8 (in the middle of the Big Ten schedule) or Week 1, or else convince Michigan to move their game to Week 4.

As such, I give to you your next decade of Big Ten scheduling:*

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

* Except 3 seconds after this is posted there will be four more Big Ten teams, and the conference will have an entirely different name, and Delany will have superpowers. But it was fun while it lasted.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2011-12 Bo Division:

Week Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
4 x x Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
5 Northwestern Nebraska Indiana x Purdue Ohio State
6 Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern
7 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
8 Illinois Michigan x Wisconsin x MSU
9 Iowa Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota MSU Illinois
10 Wisconsin Minnesota MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan
11 MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota
12 Minnesota MSU Wisconsin Illinois Michigan Iowa
13 Ohio State Northwestern Minnesota Penn St. Iowa x

2011-12 Woody Division:

Week Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
4 x x Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
5 Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa x Minnesota
6 Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU
7 MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa
8 Northwestern Ohio State Penn St. x Nebraska x
9 Nebraska Indiana Ohio State Northwestern Purdue Penn St.
10 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
11 Penn St. Purdue Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern
12 Purdue Nebraska Northwestern Penn St. Indiana Ohio State
13 Michigan Illinois x Purdue MSU Indiana

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013-14 Bo Division:

Week Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
4 x x Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
5 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
6 Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana
7 Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St.
8 Illinois Michigan x Wisconsin x MSU
9 Iowa Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota MSU Illinois
10 Wisconsin Minnesota MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan
11 MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota
12 Minnesota MSU Wisconsin Illinois Michigan Iowa
13 Ohio State Northwestern Minnesota x Iowa x

2013-14 Woody Division:

Week Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
4 x x Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
5 MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa
6 Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois
7 Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan
8 Northwestern Ohio State Penn St. x Nebraska x
9 Nebraska Indiana Ohio State Northwestern Purdue Penn St.
10 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
11 Penn St. Purdue Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern
12 Purdue Nebraska Northwestern Penn St. Indiana Ohio State
13 Michigan Illinois x Purdue x Indiana

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2015-16 Bo Division:

Week Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
4 x x Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
5 Northwestern Nebraska Indiana x Purdue Ohio State
6 Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern
7 Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St.
8 Illinois Michigan x Wisconsin x MSU
9 Iowa Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota MSU Illinois
10 Wisconsin Minnesota MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan
11 MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota
12 Minnesota MSU Wisconsin Illinois Michigan Iowa
13 Ohio State Northwestern Minnesota Penn St. Iowa x

2015-16 Woody Division:

Week Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
4 x x Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
5 Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa x Minnesota
6 Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU
7 Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan
8 Northwestern Ohio State Penn St. x Nebraska x
9 Nebraska Indiana Ohio State Northwestern Purdue Penn St.
10 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
11 Penn St. Purdue Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern
12 Purdue Nebraska Northwestern Penn St. Indiana Ohio State
13 Michigan Illinois x Purdue MSU Indiana

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2017-18 Bo Division:

Week Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
4 x x Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
5 Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern
6 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
7 Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana
8 Illinois Michigan x Wisconsin x MSU
9 Iowa Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota MSU Illinois
10 Wisconsin Minnesota MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan
11 MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota
12 Minnesota MSU Wisconsin Illinois Michigan Iowa
13 Ohio State Northwestern Minnesota x Iowa x

2017-18 Woody Division:

Week Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
4 x x Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
5 Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU
6 MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa
7 Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois
8 Northwestern Ohio State Penn St. x Nebraska x
9 Nebraska Indiana Ohio State Northwestern Purdue Penn St.
10 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
11 Penn St. Purdue Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern
12 Purdue Nebraska Northwestern Penn St. Indiana Ohio State
13 Michigan Illinois x Purdue x Indiana

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2019-20 Bo Division:

Week Michigan Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
4 x x Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
5 Northwestern Nebraska Indiana x Purdue Ohio State
6 Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana
7 Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St.
8 Illinois Michigan x Wisconsin x MSU
9 Iowa Wisconsin Michigan Minnesota MSU Illinois
10 Wisconsin Minnesota MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan
11 MSU Iowa Illinois Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota
12 Minnesota MSU Wisconsin Illinois Michigan Iowa
13 Ohio State Northwestern Minnesota Penn St. Iowa x

2019-20 Woody Division:

Week Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska Indiana Penn St. Purdue
4 x x Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin
5 Wisconsin Michigan Illinois Iowa x Minnesota
6 Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Illinois
7 Illinois Iowa MSU Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan
8 Northwestern Ohio State Penn St. x Nebraska x
9 Nebraska Indiana Ohio State Northwestern Purdue Penn St.
10 Indiana Penn St. Purdue Ohio State Northwestern Nebraska
11 Penn St. Purdue Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern
12 Purdue Nebraska Northwestern Penn St. Indiana Ohio State
13 Michigan Illinois x Purdue MSU Indiana

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At the end of the season, they can play a game at a neutral site (Ford Field or similar) between the two divisional champs to decide the conference champion.

fin.

  • Seth's blog
  • 47 comments

A Reasonable 4 Division Setup

By kb9704 — June 15th, 2010 at 7:09 AM — 12 comments
Filed under:
  • football

Lets Think Inside The Box Now

I Just posted a diary on having a 2-way divisional setup, after reading it realized i want to design a setup that may actually be adopted. So i studied. A 4 way geographical divisional split, keeping each division competitively sound with the next, and maintaining the chance for a UM-OSU Big Ten Championship Game was hard to come up with, but i think i just did. You have 2 major divisions, and 4 sub-divisions.

North South
Big Ten Major Divisions
Michigan Nebraska
Penn State Iowa
Michigan State Illinois
Wisconsin Indiana
Minnesota Purdue
Northwestern Ohio State       

 These are the two major divisions. The winners from the subdivisions of each will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Sub-divisions are listed Below

NE NW SW SE
Big Ten Divisional Setup
Michigan Wisconsin Nebraska Indiana
Penn State Minnesota Iowa Purdue
Michigan State Northwestern Illinois              Ohio State     

 If you look at the geographical layout of the big ten schools. This makes sense. All of the teams are in the relative location of the divisions.

This setup is the closest i came to having each division as competitive as the next. I took the records from the previous year and added them together for every division.

NE 22-14 NW 24-12 SW 24-12 SE 20-16
Division Records
Michigan 5-7 Wisconsin 10-2 Nebraska 10-2      Indiana 4-8
Penn State 11-1 Minnesota 6-6 Iowa 11-1 Purdue 5-7
Michigan State 6-6 Northwestern 8-5   Illinois 3-9      Ohio State 11-1     

 As you can see each division is pretty close to the 22.5 wins that would even out each division.

How Will This Work?

Every team will play the other two teams in there division, along with the other 3 teams from either their Major Division. (ex. UM plays all teams in NE and NW, and OSU plays all teams in SW and SE) That gives you 5 conference games. Assuming they stick with 8, That leaves 3 conference games the teams can schedule with any 3 teams from the other major division. Giving you the OSU-UM finale at the end of the year.

What If Each Team Goes 1-1 In Sub-Divisional Play?

If two or more teams have the same Sub-Divisional record you then look at Major Division record, there are only 5 games so the possibility of both (or all 3) teams going 3-2 are there.

If there is still a tie after that, look at how many points each team averagely won. Whoever won by more points wins that division.

Big Ten Playoffs?

The winner of the two sub-divisions in each Major Division will play in the Semi-Finals. (ex. NW-NE and SW-SE) The winner of those two games play in The Big Ten Championship Game. This way rivalries are all still there (Iowa would have to schedule there 2 big Rivalries as there Out-of-Divisioin games but they could make it happen if they wanted it bad enough), and UM-OSU Championship could still happen.

Pros

  • Traditional rivalries still kept
  • Not too complicated
  • Big Ten Playoff / Big Ten Championship Game
  • UM-OSU Championship game a possibility
  • Keep 8 Game Conference play
  • About as fair as you can get for each division

Cons

  • People will argue about fairness and easy schedules
  • Iowa will have to take ALL of there out of division games to schedule rivals
  • kb9704's blog
  • 12 comments

North-South Divisional Alignment For Big Ten?

By kb9704 — June 15th, 2010 at 3:48 AM — 5 comments
Filed under:
  • Conference Realignment
  • Division
  • football
  • North-South
  • rivalry games

Thinking Outside the Vertical Split

So I'm sitting here reading how the Big Ten is going to split up the conferences and I'm noticing something. The way that most people have it set up is for a east-west alignment. Which makes sense. Its a lot easier to split up. I personally like the 4 division set ups better. But that does get complicated and if the Big Ten will not use a 4 division set up. Why not go North-South? This way, you get to keep the Michigan-OSU rivalry and have a chance at having a UM-OSU Big Ten Championship Game. We all know that would bring in the most money and definitely the most T.V. air time. The way i look at it, we could split the divisions up like this.

North South
Big Ten Divisions
Michigan Ohio State         
Michigan State Purdue
Wisconsin Penn State
Minnesota Nebraska
Northwestern Indiana
Iowa Illinois

 

Now with this setup, the first thing you will notice is that this is not at all even. North has Arguably 1 mediocre team while the south has 2-3. The only way i can think of to make sure that this evens out is to make each division play the other division. This is very different but could completely even things out.  ALL the teams in the North would play ALL the teams in the south, and vice versa.

 How Will This Work?

Whoever has the Best record against the other division, is the winner of the division, and will get to play in the Big Ten Championship Game. This way. OSU and Nebraska (the presumable winners of the South) have to play the exact same teams, and you can compare the records equally and will have no dispute over who had a weaker schedule. Now this only leaves 6 games, which means we have 3 left. 3 divisional games, 3 random teams within the division. (Assuming that we move to 9 conference games for this setup)

What If They Both Go 5-1?

 If two or more teams have the exact same record against the other division, then we look at record within the division. If that is the same, then we look at if the two teams played each other. If they did, then the winner of that game goes to the Big Ten Championship Game. If they didn't, then we see what the average points that the teams won by was(against the other division). Whoever won by more points is that divisions winner.

 In addition this also ensures that UM and OSU play EVERY year, and that UM-OSU Big Ten Championship Game is possible every year..

Pros

  • The UM-OSU rivalry will take place every year, no matter what
  • There is a chance at a UM-OSU Big Ten Championship Game every year
  • There will be no reasonable argument for someone winning there division with an easier schedule
  • Not too complicated

Cons

  • The South will more than likely be an easier division every year (if people really want to argue about that)
  • Some rivalry's may not take place every year
  • People will still argue someone having an easier road to the Big Ten Championship Game
  • It is out-of-the-norm for divisional splits

Why Not Have South Play Teams In The South And North Play Teams In The North?

Thats thinking in the box, not out of the box, which is the point of this post.

  • kb9704's blog
  • 5 comments

Divisional Alignment: A Complex Proposal

By formerlyanonymous — June 14th, 2010 at 11:45 PM — 25 comments

Rather than going with the 2 divisional alignment that has been argued quite extensively, I have a proposed solution for peer review. The main reason for peer review is that I'm not entirely sure that everything works out in every situation. Let me know if you find something that doesn't, making this whole post worthless.

In this situation, the 12 team conference will be split into 4 pods, and the four pods will rotate around who plays each other and a singular protected rivalry will happen outside of pod play.

First, for basic understanding of my pods:

Central

Midwest

West

South

Ohio State

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Penn State

Michigan

Northwestern

Iowa

Indiana

Michigan State

Illinois

Nebraska

Purdue

Division names here are just made up for convenience, something better could be thought up. I'm just looking at how to divide and schedule.

The key to this scheduling technique is a rotation. The plan is to have a 9 game schedule, with each team playing 2 divisional games, 1 protected rivalry game, and 6 games against teams in matched divisions. If the protected rivalry game falls in one of the two matched divisions (2 games per division automatically end up this way), they'll be replaced by a team in the unlinked division.

The protected rivalries outside of the divisions:

Michigan Minnesota
Ohio State Indiana
Michigan State Northwestern
Wisconsin Nebraska
Illinois Purdue
Iowa Penn State

I felt this does a good job of keeping some of the more important rivalries that may or may not exist, even if they are minor (Michigan vs Minnesota) or developing ones (Iowa vs Penn State).

By setting this divisional set up and match ups, this means that two divisions are linked every year. By linked, I mean that they will play the same divisions, but not each other, except in games replacing protected rivalry weekends. So, for example, in year one, the Central will play the West and South divisions. Also in year one, the Midwest will play the West and South divisions. The Central and Midwest won't play each other except replacing protected rivalry games, and the West and South won't play each other except in games replacing protected rivalries.

To describe this in chart form, the team in the top would play inter-divisional against the teams in the chart in each of the three rotating years:

Year Central Midwest West South
1 West/South West/South Central/Midwest Central/Midwest
2 Midwest/West Central/South Central/South Midwest/West
3 Midwest/South Central/West Midwest/South Central/West

Looking above, you can see that the Central would play the same inter-divisional opponents as the Midwest in year one of the rotation. In year two, they'd play the same opponents as the South. In year three, they'd play the same inter-divisional opponents as the West. Having played the same opponents, I think this makes them best suited for "linking" them for who makes the Big Ten Championship game. The best record emerging from the "linked" groups will face off in the Big Ten.

So in year one, the best Big Ten record of the Central and Midwest would face the best Big Ten record of the West and South. This helps eliminate some of the problem the Big XII faced as a 2 division, 12 team conference. One half of the conference cannot dominate the other half as quarters of the conference much mix yearly.

Will it work?

I'm not entirely sure. The protected rivalries may hurt the system, but some I think are near necessities. The thing I'm least sure about is if replacing protected rivalries will work out. Say Michigan is in year one of the rotation, they'll play Minnesota in the inter-divisional round, therefore, they'll need to play a team out of the Midwest to make up for the lost conference game. Will that work out all the time? I'm not sure. I tried to space it out where no team in the same pod had a protected rivalry in the same division as another team in their rivalry, so theoretically, there should always be two teams from each pod that must play a team from their linked pod.

That even number in each pod should make it possible. I'm interested to see if those with a sharper attention span can confirm this.

Positives

  • It eliminates the need to split the conference in two parts.
  • Geography is still pretty well grouped. Penn State does jump the Central schools, but that was to keep Michigan with it's two geographic rivals.
  • The quarters provide a pretty solid balance between groups,
  • It keeps many if not all major conference rivalries together.
  • You never go more than one year without facing an opponent.

Negatives

  • Only 85% sure it will work.
  • You're probably slightly confused just thinking about it.
  • One less cream puff game per year, resulting in half the conference gaining an extra loss (price of a 9-game conference season)

Conclusion

I like it, but I'm interested in your thoughts. I don't see much in the way of 4 divisions being thrown around for much outside of the 16 team conference, which I'd prefer something similar in that case as well.

  • formerlyanonymous's blog
  • 25 comments

Weekly Recruiting Update 6/14

By TomVH — June 14th, 2010 at 2:20 PM — 21 comments
Filed under:
  • 2011 Recruiting
  • Ed Davis
  • football
  • James Elliott
  • Kris Frost
  • Prince Holloway
  • TomVH

James Elliott

6'4, 285 lbs.

Offensive Tackle

Pensacola, Forida


Elliott has started to see his recruitment take off. With around 14 offers so far, he is hoping for and expecting a few more offers to roll in. James was offered by Michigan this past Tuesday, and was very excited that the Wolverines have chosen him for a scholarship offer. He told me that Michigan is in his top five even if he gets those offers that he's hoping for.

He will most likely have to use an official visit to come see Ann Arbor since it's an expensive trip from Florida. Elliott has a very close relationship with his offensive line coach, and it just so happens that Elliott's line coach played at FSU with Michigan offensive line coach Greg Frey. They have that instant connection and trust that's needed during recruiting, so we'll see how this plays out. Distance won't be a factor for Elliot.

Prince Holloway

5'10, 165 lbs.

Athlete

Cape Coral, Florida


Holloway is an interesting prospect who only holds a few offers from Indiana, Michigan, West Virginia, and Western Kentucky. Although the local schools haven't offered they've had their eye on Holloway, and at least one of them should jump into the mix soon.

Holloway told me that Michigan is in his top two with West Virginia. He said that even if one of the local schools does offer, Michigan will still be up there in the top group. Just because they're a local school doesn't mean he would pick them. He's looking for the right fit, and the right school for him. Holloway doesn't know the exact date yet but he will be visiting Michigan sometime either this month, or next.

One complicating factor for Holloway and Michigan is that, like his former teammate Spencer Boyd, Holloway has a child. Boyd recently transferred from Notre Dame to be closer to his family. You have to think that would have an effect on Prince, too.

A look at Prince's spring game this year:

 

Kris Frost

6'3, 210 lbs.

Linebacker/Wide Receiver

Matthews, North Carolina


Kris Frost will be in Ann Arbor this coming weekend for camp with his family. This is a huge visit for Michigan, as it will be the first time his family will be seeing Michigan. Frost recently took an impromptu visit to Auburn and enjoyed himself. He's been to Auburn quite a few times now, and the proximity to his home is a plus in the eyes of his mom and dad.

Michigan needs to roll out the red carpet for his family. If Michigan can impress them, then it would be safe to say that Michigan will be the clear front-runner. I sent Kris a text the other day, and said, "You're still coming up to Michigan for camp right?" His reply was, "THAAATTTT'SSS RIIIIIIGGGHHTT!!!!!!!!" So… he's a little excited.

[Editor's note: Camp will be critical in Frost's recruitment. The frequent visits to Auburn have Tiger fans feeling optimistic; Michigan's main chance to sway him back will be this weekend.]

 

Ed Davis

6'4, 215 lbs.

Outside Linebacker

Detroit, Michigan


Ed was offered by Michigan this past weekend. I spoke with him afterwards, and he said he's going to get together with his family and talk about what's next. "What's next"  could be an quick commitment. I'm expecting that Ed's commitment will come sooner rather than later, once he has all of his questions answered. He said he will be ready to make his decision once he feels right about a school.

Michigan is in good shape here.

Extra:

  • There was an article brought to my attention in which Andre Yruretagoyena (I don't even need to look that up anymore) said he didn't think it was fair that USC's new coaches were being punished for what the old staff did. The sanctions against USC are coming from 2004, and you have to remember, Andre was only 10 or 11 years old at that time. He didn't know that Lane Kiffin was part of that staff. He does now, and he doesn't feel as strongly about it. Yruretagoyena said he "want[s] to say it doesn't affect me, but it does."
  • MD ATH Brandon Phelps has a Michigan offer, plans a visit, and lists Michigan in a list of five schools that are recruiting him hard.
  • OH LB Sean Duggan's visit to Michigan was "awesome" and Michigan is now solidly in his top three.
  • TomVH's blog
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