Diaries

Michigan's baseball team is in the midst of fall practice this week, and like spring ball for football, there are some vague outlooks of next season hinted at even in meaningless exhibitions against Canadian teams. Yesterday, for the second year in a row, Michigan took on the Ontario Blue Jays, a high-level summer ball squad from north of the border. For the second year in a row, Michigan crushed the Jays.

Pitching

While the 24-1 score over the 14 inning scrimmage means nothing, how innings were allotted to pitchers is something of quite a bit more interest. Heading into next season, Michigan will be replacing two weekend starters. Lefty Bobby Brosnahan seems to be a lock to return to the rotation, and junior Brandon Sinnery is poised to be the second after spending the summer in Ann Arbor bulking up for the workload, but the third spot has been somewhat vague. Enter the exhibition;

Judging by the innings, it looks like the early front runner for the last spot is Kolby  Wood (right, by MGoBlue). Wood has been a jack of all trades on the pitching staff for quite some time now. Early on, there were several experiments to move him to the rotation, but between his own struggles starting, and his value as a late inning reliever, Wood never could secure a starting spot. Kolby does have a pretty good fastball, a solid slider, changeup, and has worked with developing a splitter.

As far as the other relievers and potential starters, I have to be impressed with Gerbe and Ballantine. Gerbe could very well end up as this year's closer if he doesn't get groomed into a starter as well. I'm starting to get excited about the future of Ben Ballantine as well. His freshman season wasn't great, but with his height and size, I think we'll see a big break through for him this year.

The last note on the pitching staff, why do lefty relievers always bother me? Be it Katzman's bipolar "OMG I'M GREAT" to "OMG I JUST HIT TWO BATTERS AND GAVE UP 4 HITS THIS INNING" or Jeff DeCarlo, Academic All-American, I've just never felt comfortable with our "specialists." This year appears to be more of the same. Tyler Mills is cut from the same sporadic lefty mold where he'll walk a few batters per innings to raise the blood pressure, then it's anyone's guess on how the inning will end.

The Lineup

Starting lineup:

Here's where things get interesting. While the first two slots of Biondi and Toth is no surprise, John Lorenz (bottom right, by MGoBlue) in the 3-hole isn't something I really expected. Lorenz really came along to end last season, but his power has been streaky at best and his strikeout rate is generally pretty high.  The more I think about it though, the more it makes sense. The only other power options are Crank and Stephens, but their K-rate is probably twice that of Lorenz.

The other option was moving Derek Dennis into the 3, but judging just on the regular season, Dennis didn't appear to be ready for that load yet. It's not to say he won't be ready by February, but I just haven't seen reason to move him that high in the order just yet. Dennis should fit in well to the 6-hole. He'll act as a clean up hitter for Crank and Stephens above him, who should provide Dennis with plenty of RBI opportunities.

The bottom three in the order are of more interest to me than anything else. With two outfield spots open, all three of those guys are competing for two spots on the field. And with Michael O'Neill due back from labrum surgery in the next month or two, that's just one more guy in the mix – one that some close to the baseball program think is already the favorite to start in left. I'm personally leaning towards Krantz as the other outfielder, but that's without seeing him play since the broken thumb. Kevin looked good while replacing Ryan LaMarre last season, and I'd love to see him continue to produce like that at the bottom of the order.

As for the DH, I wasn't really expecting Alex Lakatos to make an appearance, especially given his pitching potential. Lakatos was one of the state of Michigan's top high school pitching prospects last season. I didn't know Maloney also was looking at his bat. I'm also somewhat surprised with the lack of Cam Luther. Luther was the big bat brought in the recruiting class of 2009. He made it into just a handful of games last year before contracting mono, but it appears the projection that he would challenge Stephens for 1st base or designated hitter might be pushed back a little later.

What it Means

Like spring football, everything in this game is all to be taken with a grain of salt. Players still have a few months to get into baseball shape, and anything could happen between now and then, especially on the mound.

If there is one thing I take out of this though, it's pleasure in the AD finally giving the fall exhibitions some publicity. In several southern baseball schools, fall ball is a big deal. Last year, we were given a score, no box, no write up, nothing. As Michigan continues to build it's baseball program, this is a small step forward. So is their recent hire of the new assistant SID, Kent Reichert, formerly of Coastal Carolina (a big time baseball school). I'm really encouraged to see the program moving forward like this.

Had to check. It's true. No Bo-era option QB (that is, 1970s QB) put up total yardage figures anywhere approaching what Denard Robinson has put up after three games this year.

Denard's numbers thus far: 559 rushing yards, 671 passing yards, for 1,255 total yards.

Compare to these REGULAR-SEASON numbers for Bo's starting QBs, circa 1969-78 (the '69 and '70 teams played 10 reg-season games; all others 11):

DON MOOREHEAD, 1969
-- 625 rush
-- 1,261 pass
TOTAL: 1,886

DON MOOREHEAD, 1970
-- 368 rush
-- 1,167 pass
TOTAL: 1,535

TOM SLADE/KEVIN CASEY/LARRY CIPA, 1971
-- 347 rush (combined)
-- 675 pass (combined!)
TOTAL: 1,022 (combined)

DENNIS FRANKLIN, 1972
-- 511 rush
-- 818 pass
TOTAL: 1,329

DENNIS FRANKLIN, 1973
-- 542 rush
-- 534 pass
TOTAL: 1,076

DENNIS FRANKLIN, 1974
-- 290 rush
-- 933 pass
TOTAL: 1,223

RICK LEACH, 1975
-- 532 rush
-- 680 pass
TOTAL: 1,232

RICK LEACH, 1976
-- 638 rush
-- 973 pass
TOTAL: 1,641

RICK LEACH, 1977
-- 370 rush
-- 1,109 pass
TOTAL: 1,479

RICK LEACH, 1978 (*include bowl game)
-- 611 rush
-- 1,283 pass
TOTAL: 1,894

In other words, Denard has more total yards in three games than Bo's option-heyday starting QBs had in an entire 11-game season in 1971, 1973, 1974 and 1975. And the most total yards any Bo QB had in a season (before he loosened the passing reins for Steve Smith and Jim Harbaugh in the '80s) was Rick Leach's 1,894, in his Heisman finalist year of 1978.

(According to gutsnglue.tripod.com, the unofficial Rick Leach website, the 'Flint Phenom' rushed for 100 yards only once in 47 career starts, whereas Denard is 3-for-3 so far.)

At this rate, Denard will eclipse the 1,894 figure in 2-3 weeks -- at or before the halfway point of this season.

Now, granted, each of those Bo QBs had deep, talented backfields behind them, whose FBs and TBs annually combined for roughly eleventy billion yards (OK, but well over 2,000 anyway), so there was no need for them to run -- or even pass -- as much as Denard has been doing.

Still, the comparisons are rather remarkable.

I'm at the tail end of a great week.  My wife is pregnant with our first child and I'm on vacation visiting business schools.  Obviously, Michigan's Ross is my first choice.  It's a great school, the new building is fantastic (check it out if you haven't been), and its got a unique program that matches perfectly with my desired career path.  I just hit "send" on the application and feel great about my chances.

Unfortunately, that's the problem.  Despite every piece of positive news, I've got a very specific, overwhelming concern--will Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton be serviceable Big 10 linebacker this season?  Add to that concerns about running backs, Mike Martin going pro after the season, and the shocking lack of depth in the secondary, and I'm legitimately worried.  I spend my days concocting reasons why UMass's success shouldn't be a concern and why our defense can succeed in the Big 10.  

Let's add another layer.  I don't know a person dedicated or knowledgeable enough with which to watch a game.  Everyone knows Denard Robinson is awesome at this point, but how many can appreciate Omameh destroying Te'o on the long touchdown against Notre Dame?  This isn't an insult to others, but an indictment of my personality.

Brian had the long-standing email asking why he was a fan and why football was important.  I'm starting to ask myself the same question.  Last Saturday, I sat in my house screaming at the TV while the defense struggled.  As my wife aptly points out, I don't take the same joy in watching the offense perform in a way I may never see again as a Michigan fan.  

I always wanted someone like Donovan McNabb to wear the Maize and Blue.  Now that a better player with better coaching (I really believe this) is running around making defenses look stupid, I take little joy in their successes.  I almost broke my laptop when Rudolph scored his touchdown.  When Michigan took the lead and eventually sealed the victory on Crist's throw out of the end zone, I was mildly satisfied.  

My question to you, the fan, follows: why is football important to you?  Why do you love Michigan football to the point of losing your temper, screaming at the TV, and investing your emotional happiness in 20-somethings you'll likely never meet?  

I can't answer my question right now.  I love Michigan football simply because I love Michigan football.  "Why" is completely absent from the equation.  I've got a love of my home state that somehow overrides enormous parts of my logical person and manifests itself in an intense desire to see the Wolverine's football team succeed.  Is it guilt at leaving while the state struggles? Why do I care?  Why do you?  I think this exercise may help those of us that are struggling as the program completes (hopefully) its growing pains and become the ninja football machine we hope for late at night.

Okay, so at first this diary started off as just another post at a different forum. But, one thing led to another, and here we are. The original post started off as a way to statistically justify why UMs defense was ranked #100 in the country. Without further ado, here we go.

These "rankings" are going to change. Especially when competition becomes tougher for the higher "ranked" defenses. For example, you've got a team like OSU sitting at #7 in total defense. They are a great defense, but their ranking is based on play against the #95 offense in Marshall, #65 offense in Miami, and #119 offense in Ohio. (rankings from ncaa.org)

On the flip side, UM faced the #57 offense in UConn, #24 in Notre Dame, and UMass, if placed in with the FBS schools, ranks #17 in the nation at 467 yds/game.

So, on average, UM faced the #33 offense in the nation, while OSU faced the #93 offense.

At this point, you're probably saying to yourself some of the same things I was questioning. Well, of course Notre Dame's offense is going to look good because they played against UMs defense. Well, just how much did UM effect those rankings?

ND would move from #24 to #48 without the UM game. UM held UMass under their season average. UMass would move from #17 to #15. UM held UConn to 50 less yards than their season average. They'd move from #57 to #41. So, UMs average offensive opponent taking out their UM game = #34. So, taking UM out of the equation pushed the rank of their opponents' offense from #33 to #34. Not much change. OSU was a different story.

Looking at OSU...

Marshall moves from #95 to #68
Miami has only played two games, but w/o OSU game move from #65 to #53
Ohio moves from #119 to #114.
OSU average opponents' offensive rank = #78. A move from #93.

So, when taking out the immediate matchup, UM was facing the #34 offense while OSU was facing the #78 offense. For comparison's sake, the #78 offense is Texas Tech at 345.67 yds/game. The #34 offense is Wake Forest at 430.67 yds/game.

How does this pertain to the rest of the schedule?

Based on the average of #34, UM will only face 3 more offenses better ranked than the average offense they've already played. (MSU, OSU, and Wisconsin at #28, #20, and #30, respectively)

---------------------------------------

Pushing the analysis further, UM is holding their opponents to 100.68% of their average offense.

UConn - 343/417 = 82.25%
ND - 535/409.5 = 130.64%
UMass - 439/481.5 = 91.17%
Total - 439/436 = 100.68%

OSU is holding their opponents offense to 68% of their average offense.

Marshall - 199/371 = 53.63%
Miami (YTM) - 352/405 = 86.91%
Ohio - 158/257 = 61.47%
Totals - 236.33/344.33 = 68.635%

If we take those numbers and look at the UM vs. OSU matchup at the end of the season, we get this in terms of expected offensive output:

UM: 350 yds
OSU: 463 yds

Of course, this same argument can be implemented to UMs offense vs. their opponents' defense. Without taking UM stats away from their opponents average, UM is still putting up 135.28% more yards than their opponent's defense normally gives up.

So, let's take away UMs impact on their opponents' defensive stats.

UConn - gave up 525 yds in their two other games. UM put up 473 yards on them.            473/262.5 = 180.19%

ND - gave up 799 yards to their two other opponents. UM put up 532 yards.           532/399.5 = 133.16%

UMass - gave up 544 yards to their other two opponents. UM put up 525 yards.            525/272 = 193.01%

So, to this point, UMs offense is putting up 163.81% more yards than their opponent typically gives up in a game.

In terms, of what this means vs. OSU... Ohio States defense is only giving up 236 yds/game. Based on UMs offensive output, they should put up 387 yards against OSU.

EDIT: So, I took all individual games and plugged them into Excel and came up with a pretty un-scientific predictor.

It is interesting to note that based on my predictor, UM will only be outgained by one team, OSU. I think these stats will really start to reign in the right picture once UM is two games deep in Big10 play.

The official MGoBlue.com news release on the details of this year's iteration of the Red Berenson Show is provided below in its entirety. Happy listening or participating.

Sept. 21, 2010

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- The Red Berenson Show, broadcast by AM 1050 WTKA, will make its 2010-11 season debut on Tuesday, Sept. 28. The weekly program will air from 6-7 p.m. each Tuesday during the season and feature University of Michigan ice hockey head coach Red Berenson, current players and alumni. For the third consecutive year, the show will be aired live from The Arena, a sports bar and grill located on 203 E. Washington St. in downtown Ann Arbor. WTKA's Ira Weintraub and John Bacon will anchor the show. Each show is also archived and available for download on MGoBlue.com's podcast center.

Michigan Sports Marketing

In its eighth season as a division of IMG College, Michigan Sports Marketing represents one of the largest and most listened to college sports network in the Midwest. Anchored by AM 1050 WTKA in Ann Arbor, Michigan Sports Marketing is comprised of nine affiliate stations that cover the state of Michigan during ice hockey season. Al Randall enters his 16th year as the play-by-play voice for Michigan ice hockey. He will be joined in the booth by a pair of U-M alumni: Bill Trainor (1998-2001) and David Huntzicker (1998-2001), each in their second seasons.

Following is a list of hockey radio affiliates for 2010-11:

List is subject to change (9/21/10)

Michigan Sports Marketing Game Audio and Video

All games will be streamed (audio) free of charge on MGoBlue.com. Select home games will be video streamed as well.

Contact: Matt Trevor (734) 763-4423

Week 3 Recap

I feel bad about picking on Wyoming after hearing that they lost some players in a car accident.  A moratorium on Wyoming for the rest of the season.  Boise State still scored 52, such is life in college football.  Virginia Tech escaped a lynching after coming from behind 27-21 to win 49-27.  ECU went 4-14 on 3rd down, then 3-3 on 4th?  Figure that one out, unless they were using the "Never Punt" strategy.  Washington State lost to SMU 35-21in a game that featured 13 punts for just under 600 yards.  That's some darn fine puntin'.

This week

Two 0-3 teams face off in the "1988 Baltimore Orioles Memorial" game.  New Mexico and UNLV begin the battle for the MWC basement.  New Mexico has gotten pummeled by good competition like Oregon, Texas Tech and Utah.  UNLV has played reasonably well against Wisconsin, Utah, and Idaho.  Both teams are 100+ in scoring and defense.  Is the MWC the MAC of the west?  Also, UNLV's logo looks like a pair of testicles if you look at it long enough.  Seriously.

Speaking of New Mexico, New Mexico State goes up against Kansas.  NMS already has a loss to SDSU, and we all know the story of Kansas so far.  This is the "Jekyll and Hyde" game of the week, depending on which Jayhawk team shows up.  New Mexico also gets a special "There's A New Mexico Now?" award for overall statewide incompetence.

The "Food Network's Cupcake Wars" game this week is tOSU versus Eastern Michigan.  Eastern is already 0-2 in conference, and started off the season with a loss to Army.  Plus they're giving up 37 PPG, while tOSU is only giving up 12.  This one may be over at the coin-toss.  Special thanks to ABC for putting this up as a regional game again.