Diaries

Over at the User-Curated MGoHallOfFameI've created a section entitled "Brian's Songs" to serve as the repository for Brian's greatest hits.  Just like everything in the HoF, that section's name is subject to change.  If you can think of something better, change it.  I think the HoF is shaping up fairly nicely, but its clear shortfall is the lack of a Dear Leader canon where older MGoUsers can reminisce about the good old days and newbs can get smart about the Tao of Cook.

Feel free to place your nominations in the comments below or directly into the section.  If you do edit the HoF, I ask that you please type the post's original title with a bullet and then add the post's link to its entire title.

Feel free to add your own content as well.  Brian established the HoF as MGoBlog's wiki, so your inputs are welcome and needed. 

Looking forward to your nominations or contributions for this new section. The future of the User-Curated MGoHallofFame is in your able hands. Make us proud.

Here are some of my nominations:

• I feel a little better now. First post with content, I believe.
• Graham to Michigan An extremely short post that would prove extremely prescient.
• Blog/MSM Throwdown! Probably Not That Exciting! The origins of Unverified Voracity
• The New Math 86 = 1
• The Age of Miracles The promise of the RichRod and Beilein eras
• October Spawned a Monster Morrissey's morose lyrics sum up the second half of the 2009 season and its utter awfulness.  

You get it.  Now get to it.

At the risk of getting this thread pulled because it's a repeat, here are the highlights from Bruce Madej's Pregame Chat conducted Saturday afternoon just before the rededication ceremony.  Madej actually provided some substantive answers to a handful of questions.  Here's hoping they do this again sometime this season.  While I posted this as it happened, many were at the game or watching it on TV without the benefit of MGoBlog in real time.

The four Q&A I selected from the chat: 1) This one is mine and its about Michigan Stadium, Crisler Arena and Yost Ice Arena scoreboards.  2) Will old Michigan Replays ever find their way to the BTN or another outlet?  3) Whether or not they plan on naming the press box after Bob Ufer. 4) Did Bruce ever discuss Big Ten expansion with Bo Schembechler? 

The game was obviously a success, and that has resonated through with the recruits in attendance. Here's a look at how this past weekend's visits went, and some reactions to the game from recruits. There's not many quotes from the first three, because I only spoke with them briefly, and Avery Walls is still in Ann Arbor.

Demetrius Hart

5'8, 190 lbs.

Running Back

Orlando, Florida

We'll just start off with the update you've been anticipating. Demetrius Hart decided not to commit this weekend. He came up with his uncle, teammates Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix and Nick Patti, as well as Tom Shaw (his trainer).

I will tell you that I thought this would be the weekend he would end his recruitment. I know this was a very good visit for him, and there's still no reason to believe that anything has changed as far as where he ranks Michigan (which is number one).

I don't have any deep meaningful quotes from him, but I did talk to him briefly. He's graduating early, so he has to make his decision soon. I wouldn't be surprised if he took a few more visits to other schools, and came back up to Ann Arbor for the MSU or Iowa game. Disappointing that nothing happened this weekend, but definitely a positive weekend for Michigan with his recruitment as a whole. Just stay patient.

Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix

6'2, 190 lbs.

Safety

Orlando, Florida

I spoke with Ha'Sean before the visit took place. He told me that he didn't want the visit publicized too much, and if it got out there that he was coming he might not go. As we all know it was reported everywhere that he would be in Ann Arbor, and he still came. Maybe he doesn't browse the interwebs, I'm not sure.

Anyhow, speaking with a few people about him makes me feel like he's pretty solid with Alabama. That's not to say that it would be impossible to sway him, it would just take quite a bit to do that. If Demetrius makes another trip up to Michigan and Ha'Sean were to come with him, there would be reason for excitement. I've been told that there may be some teammates (possibly former as well) trying to persuade him to go north. We'll just have to wait to see how it plays out.

Avery Walls

5'11, 185 lbs.

Safety

McDonough, Georgia

Avery's visit will last until today (Monday), so we'll have to wait a little bit for an update on the visit. I wouldn't expect a commitment from him, but if the visit blows him away it's not out of the question. I have a feeling that Michigan is in the driver's seat. This is his third trip to Ann Arbor.

This time he brought his brother with him to have him see what he's been talking about. He will continue to take his planned official visits to Oregon on October 2nd, and Cal on October 9th. He wants to make sure he's found the right fit and I think taking those official visits is important to him. Again, be patient. Michigan is a good spot.

Extra:

• AJ Jordan - 2011 wide receiver from Trotwood, Ohio was in attendance. He thought very highly of the game and atmosphere, and will eventually take an official visit in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin is barely in the lead right now, and this visit has helped to close that gap.
• Danny O'Brien & Matt Godin - 2012 defensive tackles and best friends! They both had an amazing time at the game. Danny said, "(Mike) Martin is a beast. The defense looked good. Me and Matt both had a great time, it was an awesome game." They both REALLY like Michigan, but it's still early. O'Brien already has offers from Tennessee and Michigan.
• Nick Patti - 2012 quarterback from Dr. Phillips in Orlando, Florida. This was Patti's second time up to AA, and it was a good one. "It was great for me, I loved it. It's hard not to like it there," he said. Tom Shaw (who trains Nick, Demetrius, Ha'Sean, Karlos Williams, etc.) accompanied Nick on the visit, and also had a favorable view. "Tom (Shaw) said he thinks it's a fantastic opportunity if it's presented to me."
• Anthony Zettel - Anthony always enjoys himself at Michigan, and this game was much of the same. I've said this before, but Anthony is now waiting until the end of the season to make his decision. He's waiting to see how Michigan's season turns out, and if there ends up being a coaching controversy. This win is one step closer to landing him.
• The general feeling among the recruits was that this was a great  win, and it was an exciting game. The crowd played a big factor too as some recruits said it was so loud they couldn't hear the person next to them at some points. Denard is not only a fan favorite, but a recruit favorite as well. His performance stood out to everybody, and had all the recruits talking about how exciting he is to watch. 

In Part 3 of the continuing analysis of turnovers, I’ll look at the impact of turnover margin (TOM) on the win/loss margin (WLM).

Summary:Basis: Only the 66 teams that automatically qualify (AQ) for the BCS bowls are included for the last ten years – 2000 to 2009. (See discussion below for why this change to AQ instead of all FBS was made.)

Note: In Part 1, a statistical analysis concluded: Luck is primarily responsible for TOM of approximately 80% of FBS football teams. For the other 20%, team performance (good or bad) is primarily responsible for TOM. Teams within +/- 4.0 TOM per year are primarily dealing with luck. For teams with more than +4.0 TOM per year, good performance is the primary factor for the TOM. For teams with more than -4.0 TOM per year, poor performance is the primary factor for the TOM.

Details Here:  http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-2-do-turnovers-turnaround

In Part 2, a statistical analysis concluded: Phil Steele is wrong. Turnovers do NOT equal turnaround. The teams Steele isolates (those with double-digit turnovers) are the teams whose TOM is primarily due to performance and not luck. Therefore his basic premise is incorrect. In addition, the percentage of teams that “turnaround” the next season is approximately the same when TOM is completely ignored.

Details Here:   http://mgoblog.com/diaries/turnover-analysis-part-1-it-all-just-luck-1

The Switch To Automatic Qualifiers Only:It is obvious (to even the most casual observer) that teams in the AQ conferences are significantly better than the teams in non-AQ conferences. Over the past decade, 71% of AQ teams have winning records but only 30% of non-AQ teams have winning records. The reason for the low winning record of non-AQ teams is they are significantly overmatched in their OOC games against AQ teams.

TOM becomes less of a factor when the two teams playing have vastly different abilities. I looked at the same TOM data including all FBS teams and the correlation was not nearly as high. This is exactly as expected. Non-AQ teams often have +TOM in their OOC and still lose. Including non-AQ teams in this analysis would distort the results.

I did not attempt to eliminate the data for non-AQ games (i.e. subtract all the non-AQ data for TOM and WLM). The data for TOM and WLM includes ALL games but only the 66 AQ teams were included in the analysis.

The Gory Details:The first table provides yearly and total over the decade for: 1) the number of teams with the indicated TOM; 2) of those, the number of teams with a positive WLM; and 3) the percentage of teams with a positive WLM in that category.

The second table provides yearly and total over the decade for: 1) the number of teams with the indicated TOM; 2) of those, the number of teams with a positive WLM of 5.0 or greater; and 3) the percentage of teams with a positive WLM of 5.0 or greater in that category.

One More Thing– The question of cause and effect is bound to come up because I have only shown a correlation. "Correlation does not imply causation" is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though correlation is necessary for causation and can indicate possible causes or areas for further investigation).

One question to ask for causation, “Is the variable relevant?” The answer is obvious “TOM is relevant to the outcome of football games.” Some people have experienced a correlation between the clothes they wear and their team winning a football game. But, of course, there can be no cause and effect – the clothes a person wears is NOT relevant to the outcome of a football game (sorry to burst anyone’s bubble).

It is also obvious that there is no “direct cause’ and effect because teams win games with even large negative TOM (Michigan was -4 TOM versus Florida in the 2007 Citrus Bowl).

However, a cause may be classified as a "contributory cause," if the presumed cause precedes the effect, and altering the cause alters the effect. It does not require that all those subjects which possess the contributory cause experience the effect. It does not require that all those subjects which are free of the contributory cause be free of the effect. In other words, a contributory cause may be neither necessary nor sufficient but it must be contributory.

Thus, TOM meets the definition of a contributory cause.

Action since last rankings:

8-30-10 Wisconsin gains commitment from Frederick Willis.
9-2-10 Illinois gains commitment from Cilnt Tucker.

There's some debate as to whether 2010 LB Antonio Kinard will be a member of the Wolverines' class of 2011. He's not currently listed on Rivals's commit list, so I'll hold off on including him for now.

Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).

No change for the Buckeyes.

Nothing new for Notre Dame.

No change for Nebraska.

No change for Sparty.

blah. Hopefully some commits on the way.

No change for IU.

No change for Hawkeyes.

No change for Northwestern.

No change for Minnesota.

Frederick Willis chooses Wisconsin.

Kyle Carter goes from 2-star to 3-star on Scout.

Illini grab Clint Tucker.

Randy Gregory goes from 3-star to 2-star on Scout. Taylor Richards goes from unranked to 77 on ESPN.

I saw a man walk yesterday.  The steps looked labored and difficult.  They could only be taken with the assistance of canes on each hand, but they were steps.  Steps that doctors told this man he would never take again in his lifetime.  This man took these steps in front of 113,000 roaring football fans and when he got to midfield, he did this.

They had to dip the banner so that he could touch it.  Jumping to touch it was out of the question, but it was still as thrilling as watching all the great players of Michigan-past race out of that tunnel and leaping to touch it. 

And as I watched this unfold from my seat in Section 39, the tears came.   My wife looked at me and noted, "You're getting a little teary, aren't you?"  I merely shrugged and said, "I'm watching a guy walk who shouldn't be, and we helped him do it...that's amazing." 

I don't know Brock Mealer or anyone in the Mealer family.  I had nothing to do with Brock Mealer walking on Saturday.  I teared up just the same.  I shed a tear for the pain and struggle that Brock must have had to endure for the past two years.  I shed a tear for Shelley Mealer for all she's lost and hope that I would never have to face that kind of loss in my life.  I shed a tear for the display of courage happening before my eyes.  I shed a tear because it made me proud to be a Michigan Wolverine.

The past two years have been tough for Michigan fans, but it's nothing compared to what Brock Mealer and his family have had to endure.  Many have said Michigan turned it's back on who we are when we hired Rich Rodriguez.  To those naysayers, I want to tell them that I saw Brock Mealer walk onto the field of Michigan Stadium on Saturday.  He walked to midfield and touched the banner.  None of it should have been possible, but it happened.  Despite what most have said, the University of Michigan is alive and well.

Impossible is Nothing.  Go Blue!