Diaries

NOTE: The purpose of this post is NOT to discuss whether college football playoffs are good or bad. (That topic has been beaten to death, cremated, and its ashes spread in the depths of hell.)

Like most people, I have thought the possibility of college football playoffs are several years in the future. Recent events have dramatically increased the likelihood that playoffs will become a reality and also dramatically reduced the timeframe for that to happen.

1)  The Pac10 (the name will change to Pac12 in 2011) expanded to 12 teams, split into divisions and added a conference playoff. Prior to the expansion, most fans believed the Pac10 had the best conference schedule since every team played every other team in the conference. No questions about strength of schedule, who played who in which years, etc. The PAC10 expansion was about many things but mostly about the money generated by a conference championship game.

2) The Big10 added Nebraska, split into divisions, and added a conference championship game. This was inevitable because the 11 team league made no sense at all. It had all the scheduling problems with no increase in revenue from a championship game.

3) Both the PAC10 and Big10 accomplished this feat in less than 1 year!

4) The Mountain West will probably become an Automatic Qualifier for the BCS bowl games in 2012. There is an established criterion for becoming an AQ that is based on: 1) the ranking of the best team in the conference; 2) the average ranking of all teams in the conference; and 3) the number of teams in the top 25 versus the number of teams in the top 25 of the highest ranked conference.

5) All BCS AQ conferences will expand to at least 12 teams or risk becoming the victim of other conferences raiding their teams and eventually disbanding the conference. (BTW, I agree with Brian that conferences larger than 12 teams would be a really bad idea. Inter division play would be limited to as few as 2 games.)

6) The US Congress, the Utah Attorney General and others are looking into whether the current BCS bowl games violate anti-trust laws and/or FTC consumer protection laws. The BCS does not want this to go to court.

7) A large segment of the sports media already refer to important conference championship games as a “de facto” playoff.

Based on all these events, I believe college football playoffs will be a reality as early as 2012.

Since 2005, I have been proposing a playoff scenario that:

Keeps All Current Bowl Games In Place
Keeps Most Traditional Rivalries in Place for Bowl Games
Includes 16 Teams
Limits Additional Games
Reduces the Need/Desire for Teams to Schedule “Non-Competitive” Games

The basis for this has always been that the first round of any playoff must be the conference championship game. With a potential for 7 BCS AQ conferences (which will all expand to 12 or more teams), 14 teams of a 16 team playoff are established. The two additional teams would be at large bids. (BTW, if there are fewer AQ conferences or conferences do not have at least 12 teams, additional at large bids would be used.)

Since the conference championship games are already in place, you can include 16 teams in a playoff without playing an extra game.

If the conference championship is not the first round of any playoff scenario, the following problems are inevitable:

• The conference championship become less meaningful because a team does not have to be the conference champion to get into the playoffs (I’m looking at you Oklahoma 2003).
•  Some conference champions will not even qualify for the playoff because it is likely the primary playoff criteria will be based on BCS ranking.
• Playoff teams will be determined by computers instead of by on the field performance.
• Teams will continue to schedule “little sisters of the poor” non-conference games because overall record will be the primary criteria for making the playoff.
• The number of teams included in the playoff will be maxed out at 8 with all the ensuing arguments about which teams are included.

[I was finishing up this entry when I read Brian’s first post of the season preview on the front page – sorry for a bit of redundancy.  But, I figure, if we can have 24 posts on whether DG should redshirt or not, another one on Brock isn’t a cardinal sin.]

I distinctly remember wading through the rabble on the rivals board and seeing a post about a recruit being in a serious car crash.  I immediately remembered Elliot as the o-line recruit who'd always been a huge OSU fan.  Since that Dec '07 day, I've followed the Mealers' story closely.  Even before it hit the MSM, the story was captivating for so many reasons long: Devastating crash on the way to midnight mass.  Big, strong guys in a SUV taken out by a 90 year-old running a stop sign.  Losing his dad and the girl who'd captured his heart and helped him find new direction in life.  Brother paralyzed from the waist down.  Jacked up shoulder from trying to lift the vehicle.  Ridiculous tragedy for a high school senior – when it seemed like he was on top of the world.  I'm not going to lie – I cried that first time I read the story in the small town paper…and I've teared up every time I've seen a Mealer story since then.  Who knows what I'll do in the big house Saturday… 

I've been thinking about that walk from the tunnel to the banner for several weeks now.  My 18 year-old nephew's never been to a game; I couldn't think of a better time to take him.  My wife's upset she's not going to be there to see it.  I told her she has to stay home to see if ESPN does it justice.  Though I'm not sure anyone can truly capture it.  A few Michigan metaphors alone immediately come to mind:

1. Past: Born and raised a buckeye, Ohio educated, 4 years at OSU…then came to UM to rehabilitate something that had been in shambles (Bo – UM football; Brock – his legs)
2. Present: At first, some critics didn't think it could/should be done; purpose and resolve won out; past few years under construction (Michigan stadium renovation; Brock's attempt to walk)
3. Future: If the team can experience some semblance of success this year, next year and beyond could be truly special.  Brock's journey would be a fitting metaphor for the Rodriguez tenure. 

Every once in awhile, you get a glimpse of something that seems to 'put the pieces together'.  It hints at the meaning of it all, or sheds light on some arcane truth.  The ironic thing is the people in the middle of it rarely understand the magnitude of their experience.  They may know it's big, but they don't know why or how it's happening.  They're overwhelmed by the closeness of it all.  The emotions. It's changing their lives as they know them.  But, so often, it changes the lives of people on the outside as well. 

I don't want to undermine it by going all hyperbole here, but the Mealers' story provides amazing perspective…which I need more of every day, especially when I'm losing sleep each time we lose a CB to transfer, injury, or idiocy.                 

Brock's journey has provided so many poignant lessons on perspective:  He's consistently treated himself as an overcomer and not as a victim; through hard work and perseverance he's done what was seemingly impossible; there is real power in positive attitude; faith can move mountains; and when one man can persevere through a personal tragedy, it can become a collective triumph.

Bottom-line:  the Mealers have lived through more devastating life events than most of us can even worry about.  What I truly appreciate about their story, and Brock's specifically, is that it reminds us that sport is not the most important thing in the world.  But it has its place; it can bring us together, help us work through adversity, and even distract us from life's pains.  And their story teaches us that if real life becomes horrible, there's still hope… with the right perspective and perseverance, we can all overcome. 

Saturday, Brock walks again.

Staring Al Pacino as Denard Robinson in a passionate appeal to a segment of the Michigan fandom:

Michigan Men: Coach Rodriguez, you are a snake oil salesman and you are a loser.

D-Rob: But not a bitch.

Michigan Men: Excuse me?

D-Rob: No, I don't think I will.

Michigan Men: Mr. Robinson.

D-Rob: This is such a crock of shit.

Michigan Men: Please watch your language, Mr. Robinson. You are in the University of Michigan not the Warp Drive of the Enterprise. Coach Rodriguez, I will give you one final opportunity to speak up.

D-Rob: Coach Rodriguez doesn't want it. He doesn't need to labeled: "Still worthy of being a 'Michigan Man.'" What the hell is that? What is your motto here? "Coaches, teach the sort of football Bo taught" -- anything short of that we're gonna burn you at the stake? Well, gentlemen, when the shit hits the fan some guys run and some guys stay. Here's Richrod facing the fire; and there's Harbaugh hidin' in big Stanford's pocket. And what are you doin'? You're gonna reward Jim and destroy Rich.

Michigan Men: Are you finished, Mr. Robinson?

D-Rob: No, I'm just gettin' warmed up. I don't know who went to this place, Gerald Ford, Carlson Butler, Gerard Butler -- whoever. Their spirit is dead -- if they ever had one -- it's gone. You're building another Nebraska here. A vessel a decade of failure. And if you think your preparing these coaches and players to win championships you better think again. Because I say you are killing the very spirit this institution proclaims it instills! What a sham. What kind of a show are you guys puttin' on here today. I mean, the only class in this act is sittin' next to me. And I'm here to tell ya this coach's soul is intact. It's non-negotiable. You know how I know? Terrelle Pryor wanted a car. Only Coach Rodriguez here wasn't buyin', so Pryor went to Tressel.

Michigan Men: Sir, you are out of order!

D-Rob: Outta order? I'll show you outta order! You don't know what outta order is! I'd show you but I'm too fast; I'm too strong; I'm going to win too much. If I were the football player I was a year ago I'd take a FLAME-THROWER to this place, fumble a snap and score a touchdown! Outta order. Who the hell you think you're talkin' to? Light moves slows compared to me. I've been around you know? (The world, that is) There was a time when I had to run around the earth to travel back through time. And I have seen coaches like these, younger than these, their hair torn out, their spread schemes ripped off. But there isn't nothin' like the sight of a fired Michigan coach; there is no cure for that. You think you're merely sendin' this splendid coach back home to West Virginia with his tail between his legs, but I say you are executin' his SOUL!! And why?! Because he's not a Michigan man! Michigan men, ya hurt this coach, you're going to be Michigan Bums, the lot of ya. And NCAA, Tressel, OSU, wherever you are out there, FUCK YOU too!

Michigan Men: Stand down, Mr. Robinson!

D-Rob: I'm not finished! As I came in here, I heard those words, "Leaders and the best." Well, when the bowl streak breaks, the fair weather fans will fall. And they have fallen here; they're jerks. Makers of champions; creators of leaders; be careful what kind of leaders you're producin' here. I don't know if Rich's coaching here is right or wrong. I'm not a coach. But I can tell you this: he won't oversign players to buy his future!! And that, my friends, is called integrity! That's called courage! Now that's the stuff leaders should be made of. Last year I came to the crossroads in my life. I knew what the right path was - shredding offenses. Without exception, I knew. But I didn't take it. You know why? It was too easy. Here's Coach Rodriguez. He's come to the crossroads. He has chosen a path. It's the right path. It's a path made of speed -- that leads to championships. Let him continue on his journey.

You hold this coach's future in your hands, Michigan fans. It's a valuable future. Believe me. Don't destroy it! Protect it. Embrace it. It's gonna make ya proud one day -- I promise you.

Upon reading Brian's comments on the depth chart that was released today, I was disappointed to read his thoughts.  Reading the user comments on the post, I become further disappointed with many of my fellow Wolverine brethern.  With defensive tackles, alot of them were bigger and stronger than their level of competition in high school, so they simply dominated by pure athleticism, not by great technique.  My theory is that many of these DT need to have their technique refined so that they can hang with D-1 players, and plus alot of them need conditioning.  So I decided to look at the 2009 recruiting class for DT, using Rivals ratings and looking at the top 25 DTs.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/Michigan/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2127

Looking at the breakdown, 12 of the top 25 DTs redshirted (48%).  3 failed to qualify (12%).  2 were kicked off the team (8%).  So during their freshman year, only 8 defensive tackles made any contribution to the team (32%).  Glossing over the stats, the only 3 guys who made a noticeable impact were Jamarkus McFarland (played since Sooners lost Gerald McCoy to draft), Jaccobi McDaniel (FSU has had severe attrition on D-Line and poor depth and thus McDaniel was forced to play), and Dequinta Jones (a Michigan decommit who we lost on Signing Day).  No one DT was a dominant player as a true freshman that you would say "Damn, this guy is a NFL top 5 pick"

Looking at the chart for past performances for true freshmen DTs and the fact that we all knew that Will Campbell's biggest knock was his technique, he should have been redshirted last year.  But because of defensive attrition and poor D-Line depth, he was forced to play.  What I plan to do is revist this chart at the end of the year and see what all has changed for the remaining 20 DTs who are eligible.  Then I believe we'll have a better picture on whether Will Campbell is going down the All-American or 5 Star Bust path.

In a large booming voice from the sky:

"Band, Take the field!!"

The greatest marching band in history pours out of the tunnel at 220 bpm, eventually folding out into the fanfare M

The band moves up and down the field, playing The Victors, Varsity, and The Yellow and Blue 

In the north endzone, the drum major does his famous back bend to rile up the students even more

109,901 (or is it 115k?) rise as one, cheering on as the band returns to midfield, and forms up for the entrance of the team

A hush comes over the crowd, it is all of a sudden very dusty, as Brock Mealer makes his way out from the tunnel... a hush erupting into a roar as 109,901+ Cheer on his immeasurable spirit 

109,901 Cheering, ready, ready for another year, football is back at last... It's happened before, it will happen again, but never quite like this. The rededication. Brock, Our readiness to avenge games from years past... the Victors blares from the band and the team storms the field, hitting the banner, and ready to make us all proud

Hooray, it's finally September!  I've been jonesing for football so bad that I caught myself watching the second half of last year's Michigan/Illinois game.  And I knew what the final score was going to be!

The early season games are difficult to pick for this column, since last year's usual suspects could very well improve, or someone decent could fall on their face.  So, without further ado and very litle research, let's get down to it.

Bowl Recap: Wyoming and Freson State played an entertaining 2OT game, with Wyoming coming from behind to win 35-28.  Minnesota and Iowa Stateclunked around, with Iowa State winning 14-13.  So Congrats to Minnesota for finishing sub .500 even with a bowl game.  South Florida beat the crap out of Northern Illinois 27-3.  When you have almost as many yards punting (233) as total offense (238), the fans are in for a long night.

But we're going to put the past behind us, and look forward to a bright, shiny, new 2010 season.  Minnesota manages to get noticed again, mostly for starting on the road against Middle Tennessee.  Middle Tennessee was 10-3 in the SunBelt last year, so this is no cupcake for Minnesota, who struggled with the #109th best offense last season.  Bonus: it's on Thursday on ESPNU.

Also on the road, Arizona travels to Toledo.  Arizona is probably still smarting after getting hammered by a pissed-off Nebraska team in their bowl game, but Toledo had the #13th overall offense last year, despite finishing 5-7.  Toledo knocked off Colorado, and should be looking to do the same to Arizona.

Colorado versus Colorado State in the Rocky Mountain Showdown is nothing if not entertaining.  Last year, Colorado lost to CSU again.  This is the same CSU team that finished 3-9 and lost their last nine in a row, including such powerhouses as Wyoming, UNLV and San Diego State.  Colorado looks to counter Dan Hawkins with returning talent at RB, but nothing can counter Dan Hawkins.