Diaries

Synopsis: After 4 games, Michigan is currently ranked #11 in scoring offense and #64 in scoring defense. Based on these rankings, M has a 43% chance for a +5 WLM (9-4 or better) season and an 83% chance for a winning season. Note that if Defense rankings improve just slightly to the Top 60, the probability of a +5 WLM increases to 70%. Offense continues to trend better each week. Defense improved slightly. (See line chart below)

Expect a close game this week with lots of passing from Indiana (the one cavaet is that Indiana has played a very weak schedule [Towson (FCS and #195), W. Kentucky (#144), and Akron (#175)] and a bye week so data is minimal). Also, Indiana is ranked #92 in rushing defense which could be disastrous for Indiana.

Based on the Sagarin Predictor M is favored by  10.7 points in the Indiana game (Vegas Odds Opened at 10.5). Notice that the three Sagarin odds are very close to one another this week. That is to be expected as M finally won a game by a large margin which has brought the Predictor closer to the EloChess.

(For a Monte Carlo simulation analysis see The Mathlete's Diary which will be posted later this week.)

DETAILS: Here are the Sagarin Ratings. I have added "Opps Rank" which is the total rankings of the opposition played divided by the number of teams played.

Sagarin uses two basic ratings: PREDICTOR (in which the score MARGIN is the only thing that matters) and ELO-CHESS (in which winning and losing only matters, the score margin is of no consequence). The overall rating is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PREDICTOR.

Per Sagarin: ELO-CHESS is “very politically correct. However, it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is PREDICTOR”.

Here is the U/M vs. Indiana National Statistical Rankings with the advantage for each category indicated (all categories within 10% are considered a "push"). Biggest differences are M rushing O (#2) versus I rushing D (#92) and conversely I passing O (#11) versus M passing D (#105).

Here are the week by week National Statistical Rankings for Michigan (cumulative thru the week indicated):

I have included the major rankings for offense and defense but scoring rankings show the best correlation to winning and losing. Scoring rankings are based on PPG. Rushing, Passing, and Total rankings are based on YPG.

Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).

Each year, of the 66 FBS AQ teams, 65% (43 teams) end up with a + WLM and 36% (24 teams) end up with a +5 WLM.

If you remember from last week's diary, (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/early-um-statistical-analysis), I predicted UM to finish the game with 763 yards of total offense, while at the same time holding BGSU to 343 yards of offense. My predictor proved to be fairly accurate despite starting with a small sample size. According to the results, UMs defense played particularly well, holding BGSU to 82% of their normal game output. This mark is the best of the season edging out their performance against UConn at 84%.

Let's move on to the matchup this week vs. Indiana.

Graph...

 

Still to note is that UM is predicted to outgain all but one opponent on their remaining schedule. 5 of the 8 Big Ten teams on UMs schedule had their best offensive day this week, which closed the gap in several matchups including Iowa, MSU, and Wisconsin. Four of UMs Big Ten opponents had their best defensive day. If it weren't for UMs gaudy stat day, some of those teams may have overtaken UM on the predictions.

Despite UM having their best defensive day, stat wise, their overall percentage had a net -1.04% change. What effect will playing on the road have on UMs defense this weekend? Well, Ums defense has held every opponent under their season averages except for one; Yep, their lone away game against Notre Dame. Based on the percentage UM gave up against ND (137%), UM will give up over 570 yards against IU. Honestly, I don’t see that happening. Based on the opponent IU has played, I think their offense may be a bit overvalued.  I’ll stick with my predictor though and go with…

UM - 522

IU - 415

Very low-action week. Action since last rankings:

9-20-10Michigan State gains commitment from Roger Williamson.

If you see any errors in the individual tables, please let me know. I'm tempted to move Indiana down a bit, but their averages per commit are about even with (or only very slightly behind) the teams nipping at their heels, and they have more commits.

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank	School	# Commits	Rivals Avg	Scout Avg	ESPN Avg
1	Ohio State	17	5.76	3.82	79.00
2	Notre Dame	19	5.71	3.47	79.00
3	Nebraska	13	5.70	3.23	75.85
4	Michigan State	16	5.64	3.25	76.75
5	Michigan	10	5.70	3.30	78.10
6	Indiana	21	5.53	2.76	75.48
7	Iowa	14	5.61	3.00	76.43
8	Northwestern	13	5.58	2.77	77.23
9	Minnesota	15	5.45	2.60	71.93
10	Wisconsin	11	5.55	2.82	70.73
11	Penn State	4	5.60	3.50	77.75
12	Illinois	16	5.40	2.56	69.81
13	Purdue	7	5.46	2.43	71.71

Rivals rankings are on the "RR" scale, which is on a scale from about 5 to about 6.1. Unrated prospects are given a 5.1 rating, on par with the worst of any Big Ten commit last year. Scout is on the 5-star system (unranked players earn star), and ESPN uses grades out of 100 (unranked is 40 or 45).

#1 Ohio State - 17 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Michael Bennett	DT	OH	6.0	4	80
Braxton Miller	QB	OH	5.9	5	81
Kenny Hayes	DE	OH	5.9	4	78
Steve Miller	DE	OH	5.8	5	84
Nick Vannett	TE	OH	5.8	4	80
Jeremy Cash	S	FL	5.8	4	80
Chase Farris	DE	OH	5.8	4	79
Brian Bobek	OL	IL	5.8	4	79
Evan Spencer	WR	IL	5.7	4	81
Ron Tanner	S	OH	5.7	4	78
DerJuan Gambrell	CB	OH	5.7	4	77
Devin Smith	WR	OH	5.7	4	76
Jeff Heuerman	TE	FL	5.7	3	80
Joel Hale	DT	IN	5.7	3	79
Chris Carter	OL	OH	5.7	3	78
Tommy Brown	OL	OH	5.6	3	78
Antonio Underwood	OL	OH	5.6	3	75

No change for the Buckeyes.

#2 Notre Dame - 19 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Stephon Tuitt	DE	GA	6.0	4	80
Ben Koyack	TE	PA	5.9	5	81
Matt Hegarty	OL	NM	5.9	4	83
Justice Hayes	RB	MI	5.9	4	79
Aaron Lynch	DE	FL	5.8	4	81
Eilar Hardy	S	OH	5.8	4	79
George Atkinson III	S	CA	5.8	4	79
Jordan Prestwood	OL	FL	5.7	4	80
Jarrett Grace	LB	OH	5.7	4	78
Anthony Rabasa	DE	FL	5.7	3	81
Clay Burton	DE	FL	5.7	3	79
Tony Springmann	OL	IN	5.7	3	78
Josh Atkinson	CB	CA	5.7	3	78
Conor Hanratty	OL	CT	5.6	4	76
Ben Councell	DE	NC	5.6	3	78
Brad Carrico	OL	OH	5.6	3	77
Matthias Farley	CB	NC	5.5	3	77
Jalen Brown	CB	TX	5.5	3	78
Kyle Brindza	K	MI	5.4	NR	79

No change for the Domers.

#3 Nebraska - 13 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Tyler Moore	OL	FL	5.9	4	78
Bubba Starling	QB	KS	5.8	4	81
Jamal Turner	QB	TX	5.8	4	81
Ryne Reeves	OL	NE	5.8	4	79
Tevin Mitchell	CB	TX	5.8	4	79
Ryan Klachko	OL	IL	5.8	4	78
Zach Sterup	OL	NE	5.8	3	78
Kevin Williams	DT	OH	5.7	3	79
David Santos	LB	TX	5.6	3	79
Daniel Davie	S	NE	5.5	3	75
Aaryn Bouzos	CB	CA	5.4	2	76
Nicklas Sade	K	NC	5.4	NR	78
Daimion Stafford	S	CA	NR	3	NR

No change for Nebraska.

#4 Michigan State - 16 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Lawrence Thomas	LB	MI	6.1	5	80
Donavon Clark	OG	OH	5.7	4	78
Taiwan Jones	LB	MI	5.7	3	78
Roger Williamson	CB	OH	5.7	3	78
Mikail McCall	RB	IL	5.7	3	77
Ed Davis	LB	MI	5.7	3	77
Arjen Colquhoun	S	ON	5.7	3	76
Connor Cook	QB	OH	5.7	2	76
Onaje Miller	RB	MI	5.6	4	78
Darien Harris	LB	MD	5.6	3	79
Jack Allen	OL	IL	5.6	3	78
Joel Heath	DE	OH	5.6	4	76
AJ Sims	CB	GA	5.6	3	78
Mark Scarpinato	DT	WI	5.5	3	76
Trae Waynes	CB	WI	5.4	3	75
Paul Lang	TE	PA	5.4	3	68

Spartans pick up DB Roger Williamson out of Ohio.

#5 Michigan - 10 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Brennen Beyer	DE	MI	5.8	4	79
Delonte Hollowell	CB	MI	5.8	3	79
Chris Rock	DE	OH	5.7	3	78
Shawn Conway	WR	MI	5.7	3	78
Greg Brown	CB	OH	5.7	3	77
Kellen Jones	LB	TX	5.7	4	79
Jake Fisher	OL	MI	5.7	4	77
Kevin Sousa	QB	FL	5.7	3	78
Tony Posada	OL	FL	5.7	3	78
Jack Miller	OL	OH	5.5	3	78

Ready for something to happen here plz.

#6 Indiana - 21 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Raymon Taylor	CB	MI	5.8	3	77
Zack Shaw	LB	OH	5.8	3	76
Max Pirman	LB	OH	5.6	3	78
D'Angelo Roberts	RB	IN	5.6	3	77
Jake Reed	TE	IN	5.6	3	77
Jalen Schlachter	TE	MI	5.6	3	75
Ralston Evans	OL	IN	5.6	3	74
Tre Roberson	QB	IN	5.6	2	76
Forisse Hardin	S	KY	5.6	3	74
Bernard Taylor	OL	MI	5.5	3	76
CJ Robbins	DE	IL	5.5	3	75
Nick Stoner	S	IN	5.5	3	74
Kirk Harris	OL	KS	5.5	2	77
Kyle Kennedy	LB	IN	5.5	2	76
Mark Murphy	S	OH	5.5	2	75
Kenny Mullen	CB	IN	5.4	3	74
Shafer Johnson	DT	MI	5.4	3	77
Jay McCants	WR	OH	5.4	3	75
Mike Replogle	LB	OH	5.4	3	74
Donte Phillips	DE	WI	5.4	2	74
Nick VanHoose	DB	OH	5.4	3	74

IU is pretty much done.

#7 Iowa - 14 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Jordan Walsh	OL	IL	5.8	4	79
Austin Blythe	OL	IA	5.8	3	79
Ray Hamilton	TE	OH	5.7	4	79
Melvin Gordon	RB	WI	5.7	3	79
John Raymon	DE	PA	5.7	3	78
Torrey Campbell	RB	FL	5.6	3	78
Riley McMinn	DE	IL	5.6	3	77
Jake Rudock	QB	FL	5.6	3	78
Marcus Grant	WR	MA	5.6	3	76
Jake Duzey	TE	MI	5.5	3	73
Henry Krieger-Coble	TE	IA	5.5	3	78
Cole Fisher	LB	NE	5.5	3	74
Mike Orloff	LB	MA	5.5	2	69
Austin Vincent	WR	TX	5.4	2	73

No change.

#8 Northwestern - 13 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Christian Jones	WR	TX	5.7	3	81
Sean Cotton	S	IL	5.7	3	79
Shane Mertz	OL	NJ	5.6	3	79
Jack Konopka	OL	IL	5.6	3	79
Zack Oliver	QB	LA	5.6	3	78
Jarrell Williams	CB	IL	5.6	3	76
Matt Frazier	OL	IL	5.6	3	75
Max Chapman	DE	FL	5.6	2	78
Derek Watt	LB	WI	5.6	3	77
Geoff Mogus	OL	OH	5.5	3	75
Cameron Dickerson	WR	NJ	5.5	2	73
Mark Szott	TE	IL	5.5	3	77
Treyvon Green	RB	TX	NR	2	77

No change for Northwestern.

#9 Minnesota - 15 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Tommy Olson	OL	MN	5.7	3	79
Matt LaCosse	ATH	IL	5.6	3	78
Max Shortell	QB	KS	5.6	3	74
Quinn Bauducco	LB	CA	5.6	3	74
Peter Westerhaus	TE	MN	5.6	2	76
Kyle McAvoy	OL	IL	5.5	3	79
Marquise Vann	LB	OH	5.5	3	78
Jephete Matilus	LB	FL	5.5	2	77
Mike Moore	LB	TX	5.5	3	77
Luke McAvoy	OL	IL	5.5	3	75
Devin Crawford-Tufts	WR	MN	5.5	2	74
Sam Rohr	TE	WI	5.4	3	74
Cameron Brown	WR	TX	NR	2	74
Samuel Oyenuga	CB	TX	NR	2	NR
Russell Haughton-James	OL	FL	NR	2	NR

Haughton-James and Brown pick up 2-star ratings from Scout.

#10 Wisconsin - 11 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Jake Keefer	LB	WI	5.8	3	78
Sam Arneson	TE	WI	5.7	3	78
Mike Caputo	LB	PA	5.7	3	77
Austin Maly	TE	WI	5.6	3	76
Eric Steffes	TE	WI	5.6	3	NR
Terrance Floyd	CB	FL	5.6	2	77
Makinton Dorleant	CB	FL	5.5	3	77
Jordan Frederick	LB	WI	5.5	3	75
Derek Landisch	LB	WI	5.5	3	74
Frederick Willis	WR	WI	5.5	2	NR
Bennett Okotcha	CB	TX	NR	3	76

No change for Wisconsin.

#11 Penn State - 4 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Shawn Oakman	DE	PA	5.8	4	77
Angelo Mangiro	OL	NJ	5.7	4	81
Jordan Kerner	DE	PA	5.5	3	77
Kyle Carter	TE	DE	5.4	3	76

They have to get some commits sooner or later, right?

#12 Illinois - 16 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Clint Tucker	DT	IL	5.7	3	79
Zeph Grimes	S	SC	5.6	3	77
Chris Boles	OL	OH	5.6	3	77
Reilly O'Toole	QB	IL	5.6	3	76
Tony Durkin	OL	IL	5.5	3	74
Carl Williams	CB	FL	5.5	3	77
Josh Ferguson	RB	IL	5.5	3	75
Chris O'Connor	DE	IL	5.5	3	75
Scott McDowell	OL	IL	5.4	3	75
Ted Karras	OL	IN	5.4	2	77
Marquise Mosley	WR	TX	5.4	2	NR
Hunter Wells	OL	IL	5.3	3	NR
Daniel Rhodes	TE	NC	NR	2	73
JT Thornton	CB	FL	NR	2	77
Henry Dickinson	LB	TN	NR	2	NR
Justin DuVernois	K	FL	NR	NR	70

Mosley grabs a 5.4 rating from Rivals. Dickinson gets 2 stars from Scout.

#13 Purdue - 7 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN
Taylor Richards	CB	FL	5.6	2	77
Russell Bellomy	QB	TX	5.5	3	78
Robert Kugler	TE	PA	5.5	3	78
Brandon Cottom	LB	PA	5.5	3	76
Michael Rouse	DT	IL	5.5	3	73
AJ King	WR	FL	5.5	2	75
Randy Gregory	DE	IN	NR	2	NR

King is a 2-star to Scout now.

       It was a strange feeling to come into a game day against a Maccy-Cake with such feelings of unease.  I guess the UMass experience messed with my head more than I had thought.  Friday night it was hard to fall asleep, what with visions of 6-8 yard runs on first down running through my head.  But this Michigan defense turned it around and (hopefully) charted a new course for the Big 10 season.  I saw more decisiveness from our linebackers, flowing downhill to make plays and getting burned by aggressive play once in a while.  I saw three sacks and two interceptions caused by pressure as well.  If our defense has a chance at becoming anything else than a liability to this team, this aggressive play will be the reason going forward.

Other things I learned:

1. Michigan seems to have covered its bad karma quota.  This is completely batshit crazy, but watching Denard Robinson's rapid progression gives me pause as a fan because I seriously worry about the wrath of Angry Michigan blank Hating God taking away what Michigan fans hold most dear.  So when Denard Robinson is bouncing around after the game, and Perry Dorrestein's injury is "a hangnail or something on his toe (WTF?)," I start to feel that the punishment for years of excessive pride and entitlement may finally be over.
2. I have been firmly in the camp that can't believe Devin Gardner won the #2 QB spot over Tate (perhaps by myself).  I think what we saw yesterday vindicates this position.  Gardner was pretty good actually, but Tate ran the offense with much more confidence and at a noticeably faster pace IME.  Tate also seems to make sharper, more decisive cuts running the ball at this point, which makes him appear quicker (though DG's touchdown run showed that Vince Young deceptive glide speed).  Overall, it is great to see that this team's outlook doesn't hinge 100% on Denard Robinson.  Oh, and to any fans Hating on the Tate:                           
3. Macky-Cakes are still good for a round of first-time Michigan Touchdowns.  Congrats to Fitzgerald Toussaint, Devin Gardner, Geremy Gallon, and John McColgan for popping their cherries.
4. If Michigan still needs that 6th win to become bowl eligible, look to Purdue to save RR's job.
5. Any team can gut this defense, but aggressive play will give them the best chance of getting off the field.  The defense seems to have the speed and size to wreck havoc when playing aggressively.  If we get burned, that is more time for our offense to make up the difference.

Looking ahead:

        Michigan faces an interesting portion of the schedule now, as the first three games of the B10 season really ramp up nicely.  This stretch should give us a firm handle on how excited we should be about this team.  I think Indiana is a trap game.  The Hoosiers are going to look better than they did against Akron and Michigan can't afford to be looking ahead to the MSU game.  Win or lose against Indiana, I think we take care of business against MSU, and then come through this year on the end of the game drive to beat Iowa.  6-1 or 7-0 heading into Happy Valley.

Have a good week and be safe everyone.

[Ed: bump.]

There has been spirited debate about the angles that Ohio University LB Rufus took in tackling the OSU RB Brutus during last Saturday's game. Does increased head mass require a higher tackling angle, or should traditional non-encephalitic technique be employed?

It is early in the game, with OSU lined up in a 1-1-9.  The RB is parallel with the fat dork carrying the flag. The OLine of nine band weenies is clearly off the line of scrimmage in an illegal formation, but this doesn't get called; we're in the Horseshoe, after all.

Unblocked, Rufus arrows towards Brutus demonstrating, at first glance, excellent technique with arms wide to wrap up the opponent.

But here the question of angle v. encephalitis comes into play. What can’t be seen at this angle is that the RB’s momentum is carrying him past the impact point targeted by the OU LB, exposing why a traditional, lower attack point is desired. The OSU RB pulls away with a little, mincing gesture with his forearm and clocks the fat dork (FD) in the head with his opposite elbow. By the way, WTF is with that running OSU dude on the left side of page? I’ll tell you what it is: too many men on the field.

At this point, it looks like the unblocked OU LB will tackle for a decisive TFL.

But then we see the consequences of hitting the OSU player too high: with help from the OSU FD, Brutus maintains his balance and stands up Rufus.

If Rufus hits the OSU player just above the knees, then there is no opportunity for Brutus to recover. The OLine here is still in pre-snap formation revealing that this is a trick play.

Rufus begins to slip as the RB deflects his momentum…

…and loses contain letting the RB into the secondary with a convoy of blockers...

The RB makes a mistake: he slows up and begins to taunt the OU sideline. Rufus cuts between the WR and the TE in pursuit...

Notice the poor blocking on the part of the OSU WR running with Brutus downfield. How can you let Rufus approach your RB untouched? Again, the OU LB takes waaaay too high of an angle at the goal line. Seriously, what is this? Who tackles a player this high? Shame on the RB for walking into the end zone. Typical OSU classiness.

Rufus hits high...

...and already in the end zone, the OU LB commits the personal foul with unnecessary roughness…

...yet still demonstating why it is important to hit the player low; he still can't get him down. Bonus: notice the abused, defeated expression on Brutus's face...

This is not football; it is more reminiscent of Bogs in Shawshank. The infamous punch that got Rufus suspended from the OU team leaves Brutus a shell of mascot.

Teammates hang their heads in shame.

Takeaways: Even large-headed mascots must maintain proper tacking angles. They should not compensate for higher mass distribution with a higher attack point. Paradoxically, the higher mass point makes mascots more vulnerable to the classic leg tackle.

Also, there is no place in football for the kind of personal foul witnessed at the end of the play. Even when the other team is execrable as OSU, keep it clean. Don't sink to their level.

Edit: Special thanks to a friend who took those pictures in the endzone (I pulled the link so that we stop overloading her server).

After the positive response to last week's diary, I thought I'd do another.  But I couldn't compel myself to breakdown our game with Umass because really, what would be the point?  There's not a whole lot to learn from that game that we didn't know already. i.e. Denard is teh aweseom, mike martin is a beast, craig roh is evolving into a beast, but our LB's and secondary are uggghhh, but that has been expected.

So instead, I thought I'd breakdown the ND vs. MSU game because

1. It was a more interesting game that doesn't make me want to reach for massive amounts of alcohol
2. I can continue my analysis of ND's personnel problems
3. ND runs many plays that are similar to ours, so breaking them down will actually be transferrable to our team's scheme
4. It'll be good for when I write up a scouting report for the MSU game
5. I really hate ND and hope they lose the rest of their games, so if I can give any of their opponents some insight, yea! (btw, stanford will blow them out)

So let's do this:

Notre Dame's screen game

As noted before, ND's linemen are not a good fit for what Brian Kelly wants to do.  I feel a little bit silly criticizing an offense that is putting up nearly 30 points a game and a ton of yardage. But they're really failing to live up to their full potential. 

Here's ND's first screen. 

They split Armando Allen up to the top of the field with the ball on the hash, so it's a much shorter distance for the linemen to run. I like this adjustment by kelly.  Get the ball to one of your best players in space and make things easier on your slow linemen.

With three WR on the other side of the field pulling 4 defenders with them, this play should really go to the house. 

But look how close to the LOS Allen has to go to get behind his linemen.  Faster D-linemen or even a d-line spy will completely blow this play up. 

Anyway, ND manages to get 2 linemen in front of Allen and there's a blocker for every defender,  but BOTH linemen miss their blocks and this play only gains about 7 yards instead of being a 60 yard TD. 

Here's the other play from the same formation.

The formation is flipped because the ball is on the other hash.  Rudolph will run the bubble screen to the top of the field

With a normal slot receiver, like odoms, or steve breaston, this play is an automatic 7 yards against this defensive alignment and maybe breaks for 20.  All the slot receiver has to do is outrun the LB to the corner.  The safety is unblocked, but if he gets caught up in the wash or takes a bad angle, this could be a big play.

But Rudolph is not exactly nimble and Crist doesn't put very good touch or placement on this ball since he's used to being a downfield gunslinger instead of a spread and shred point guard. And so it's just an incompletion and a waste of what should have been a decent gain.

They followed this up with the third option from this formation which was crist running up the middle on a QB draw, but he's not exactly denard and only got like 3 yards.  All of this was on the first series, so it's probably scripted, and it wasn't really setup well.  You don't run that QB draw until you see the LB's are bailing out to cover the screens, but since ND's wide screens didn't pose much of a threat on the first two plays, the LB's were sitting at home and gobbled him up.

Later in the game, crist missed riddick on a bubble, cause he doesn't have the touch for the flare pass, so they came back to the screen to riddick on the other side, again to the short side of the field.

The play starts with crist either misreading he RB bubble to the top of the field, or it was a called screen to riddick all the way

One linemen does manage to get a block. He's too slow to get downfield, but at least he's being useful.  You can't say that about the other two linemen who are BEHIND riddick.

If not for riddick's nifty spin move, this play gets destroyed for a minor gain. 

Here's the fake screen slant.  This is the play that we sprang odoms on for wide open TD's.

The problem with ND's execution is that they're not selling the fake very hard. 

Combine that with their ineffective previous attempts and the fact that Crist isn't much of a threat to run, and it's easy for the safety to stay at home.  He has no reason to bite on either the bubble screen fake or the qb run.  When Denard takes one step up into the hole, the safeties panic and you get easy TD's

The result is a tough throw for crist to fit into a tighter window, and the safety breaks up the play for an incompletion.

Here's MSU showing the proper execution of the bubble screen.

ND shows 2 deep, but rolls up late just before the snap

But with a fast enough slot man it shouldn't matter. The ball is placed in front of the receiver so he can make the catch with forward momentum.

And even if the safety hadn't missed the tackle, it would have been an easy 7 yard gain. It's like stealing. 

MSU did this many times for a lot of yards.

Here's virtually the same play, but to the other side. 

The OLB has all his weight forward and the safety is in no position to do anything on the bubble option. 

The handoff fake holds the OLB even more.

Resulting in a wide open keshawn martin with a ton of room to make an easy first down.

When you've got a new coach and a new system, and probably new jargon, you expect there to be a few clusterf*cks.  Here's ND totally screwing up a screen just before the half.

So MSU is doing their 3rd and long thing by having one of the extra DB's bail out into a really deep third just before the snap.  Again, the OLB are blitzing.  

It looks like the two slot receivers were on the wrong side.  There's two linemen releasing, but they're on the wrong side for riddick's screen action.  Crist is looking at rudolph the whole way, but rudolph thinks he's blocking.  And the amazing this is that this gem of an f'up came after a timeout.

Late in the 4th quarter, Kelly decides he's had enough of the cutesy screens and goes with something a little more tradition that his lineman can handle.

The left tackle pops up for just a brief moment to show pass blocking, but then hauls ass downfield to lead the play.  

The tackle doesn't really get much of a block on the safety, but at least he's out in front of the play. 

Rudolph gets away with a slight hold. Good pursuit and the lack of the spread option fakes results in Allen only getting about 10 yards. But it's a positive play, just with a lower ceiling.

Armando Allen

I'm going to keep harping on this; until crist really settles down (which may be very soon, and ND's offense will be scary when that happens), stopping Allen is the key to stopping ND.

Here he is on a simple shovel pass. ND ran this twice to great effect.

MSU is bringing pressure from the edges. The slot receiver is pointing out that 'his man' is blitzing allowing the qb to change the play.  MSU's defenders start off in a cover 2, but one of the nicklebacks bails out at the last second to take the deep middle. 

This is meant to give the qb, an automatic check down to the slot receiver who will be wide open, but only for a gain of 7-10 yards with the 2nd line of defenders holding at the sticks. This is a staple of most defenses these days, where you show one look, wait for the QB to change the play, and then switch into a different defense.

Kelly should get an RPS +2 on this because with both OLB's blitzing, they take themselves right out of the play. The middle backer is covering one of the seam routes, but the seam route on the bottom of the field would probably have gotten a first down, or close to it. If you weren't running the shovel pass, the proper thing to do against this defense is to attack that deep safety who a) is playing out of position, b) just had a 20 yard sprint to get into position and is still moving backwards, and c) is 10 yards beyond the the 1st down marker.

The blocking is set up ok, but ND's linemen can't maintain their blocks.  It doesn't matter as Allen eludes them and picks up about 20 yards with some nifty cuts.

But WTH, refs?  Is it illegal to call holding against ND?  sheesh!

Here's Allen on a counter trap from the shotgun

Notice he's aligned even with the QB.  This indicates a lateral mesh.  

But instead of the normal motion, the LB's need to key his feet, as he does more of a choppy step mesh so that he can bend it back against the grain. The line blocks down on the nose, the tackle lets his pass rusher go upfield, and the pulling lineman is isolated on the LB.

Floyd doesn't know his assignment, leaving the safety unblocked.  Had he done his job Allen would have been able to cut to the sideline.

Instead he's forced into a safety sandwich.

Here's the straight play from that same alignment.

For some reason, Floyd has decided to take this play off. 

The slot man is always wide open for 5 yards against this alignment if the LB doesn't cheat the flare.  Allen goes through the mesh quicker to get around the far tackle.  ND gets a nice lead block from the guard who twists around the tackle into the hole. 

Floyd just kind of ignores his man and wanders into the middle of the field. Contrast this to the guard who is on his horse to hit someone.

So guess who makes the tackle.

Here's yet another way to give him the ball.

It's shotgun, trips right, Allen is also to the right of Crist

At the snap, both Allen and Crist sprint to the right, but Allen will peel back to take the handoff.

With all the action going to the right, and the formation strength that way too, the safety and LB are both sucked in and Allen gets over 10 yards on this carry.

One way to stop Allen on the zone dives and inside traps is to blitz the corner.

After Rudolph finishes his motion, the corner shows blitz and the safety slides over to 'cover' his WR.

This is a similar play to something we run.  And it's up to the QB to see the blitzing corner and audible out or throw the checkdown to the WR. Here Allen just gets gobbled up.

The kid from Hawaii

Here's MSU running a sweep.

Teo reads the action flowing with the line

When he sees the ball, he's just gone.

That's impressive.  To get that big of a TFL when you're not even blitzing takes some crazy speed.

In the 4th quarter he made a similar play

The H-back and FB are leading around the corner on the sweep.

But this time the OLB is doing a slightly better job of extending the corner, if he doesn't really have contain.

Teo just shoots through that tiny gap with blazing speed.

Making the fullback's head spin.

But he still needs to learn to wrap up better.

On this 3rd and long, he's spying the RB.

MSU manages to get 3! linemen out in front of the RB.  (Hey ND, what a novel idea!) Teo reads the screen and gets on his horse to lay some lumber on Bell.  

He reacts so fast that he beats all three linemen to the punch and gets a good pop on the ball carrier.

But Bell is strong enough and has good enough balance that he shakes off the hit, spins around and heads upfield.  And because all 4! of ND's linemen have been fooled on the play, Bell manages to get 1st down yardage even though Teo completely confused MSU's 3 lead blockers, otherwise this play might have gone the distance.

Dayne Crist

When he's not blind in one eye and thinking he's batman, he can be a very effective QB.  Just not a spread QB. It'll be interesting to see what kelly does with him in the future, especialy if Floyd or Rudolph or both are in the pro's next year. Already he is very strong at the intermediate routes and hitting receivers that are moving across his vision.  He has a lot of trouble with overthrowing flys and putting touch on flares as documented above.

But they did manage to hit some bubble screens in the second half, and when he underthrows Floyd for jump balls, it's a deadly combination.  Of course we saw the one time he connected on a fly with rudolph, so the future is bright for him. 

He's never going to be a one step darter like denard, but other than mike vick, who can be?  Teams are not going to respect him on the zone read option, or they'll hope he keeps it and gets his head knocked in again.

He did throw one bad interception, but I credit MSU's defense on that play. It was an interesting play for many reasons.

Before the snap, crist reads man coverage so he changes the play.  The MSU LB's see this and they change the defense.

But it still looks like man coverage

The only giveaway is the two deep safeties, but sometimes teams will play man underneath the 2 deep.

The far right WR runs a little hook, and crist is trying to hit the corner route thinking he's got a LB on his slot receiver.

But the corner comes off his receiver to make the interception.

This was well disguised by MSU.

And it got another classic reaction from Kelly

In nearly an identical situation in the 2nd half, crist again audibles thinking it's man coverage

Which it is.

MSU is in an all out blitz.  But the line blocks down as crist rolls away from the unblocked blitzer.

The big change here is that the two outside receivers both run square in's taking their men with them.  This eliminates the possibility of a corner coming off his man to get the pick.

Rudolph beats the man coverage from the safety and crist hits him in stride for the TD.

Notes on MSU's offense:

Keshawn Martin, has some good moves on the bubble screen, very dangerous, tall, fast, and he's got some shake n' bake to him.  Made a bad decision on one kickoff return.

Cousin's looks very sharp, but he did totally favre an interception in the endzone by rolling left and throwing back to the right very late when nothing was open.

They like to run a lot of I slot and double tight formations.  The counter quick pitch works well for them, they get decent blocking from their WR. 

Here we have MSU in a doubletight formation and an H back in a power set to the left.

ND is seriously misaligned  against this formation.  Because the replay was still showing, I don't know if MSU motioned to this formation and ND didn't adjust, or if they just screwed the pooch coming out of the huddle. 

The H-back has no one to block because the OLB is on the wrong side.

So he just goes looking for someone to hit, which ends up being one of the safeties and it's an easy 15 yard run on 1st down. 

Here's another example of the shifts and motion MSU will use to try to get teams out of alignment.

It starts as a double tight ace set. ND is in a base 3-4 instead of their usual 4-3.

The flanker moves up and the TE drops to an H-back position.  ND is doing some WEIRD corner blitz.  Weird because they're showing it very early, and inviting the qb to throw to the uncovered man.

The H-back ends up in an offset I. This is a strong indication of a run to the left.  A good checkdown would be a 3 yard sitdown to the uncovered WR, anything longer will be vulnerable to the sneeky safety who is 'covering' him. 

Both the corner and the OLB come hard off the edge.  This is an assignment run blitz with the corner responsible for the QB and the OLB for the RB.  But the play is going away from them, so they can't do anything.  The playside OLB has lost contain almost immediately

The guard get's just enough of Teo to trip him up and prevent him from blowing this up for a TFL.  The H-back is now just a lead blocker and he gets a great seal and the play results in another big chunk of yards for MSU

On this next play, MSU is in an unbalanced line.

Both the TE and WR are on the same side making the TE covered and inelligible.   The slot man goes in motion but comes back to the heavy side.  From this formation, this indicates a run to the left 99.99% of the time.  There's a couple ways to deal with an unbalanced line.  One is to just shift the entire defense over and pretend that the left guard is the center.  Instead, ND rolls up a safety to maintain contain.  The weakside corner backs off, and the remaining safety moves over to give a 3 deep look (on what is obviously a running down).

At the snap, the right guard pulls and the line blocks down to the right.  For some reason, the D-line is slanting to their left. I have no idea why.  (This play was going to the D's right from square one.)  It might be because the FB takes an initial step to the right as the QB gives a cross buck handoff to the TB who has what amounts to 3 lead blockers on this play. (The pulling guard, the slot man, and the fullback)

This leaves a big crevice in the front seven that MSU runs right through. The slot man kicks out the safety playing contain.  The TE just takes his slanting OLB away from the play. The pulling guard gets a great seal on DE, leaving the FB looking for someone to block.

That someone ends up being the remaining safety, TD MSU.

Baker, Bell, Caper

Their RB's have deceptive speed.  You don't expect men that big to have such a good initial burst and acceleration. On Baker's long TD's this season, safeties have taken bad angles on him.

This play starts as a zone dive to the right from a double tight, double flanker right formation.

There's an option to throw the bubble to the top, but it's pretty well covered with 3 defenders.  The playside OLB is unblocked.  The sneaky part of this play is that the left tackle just pushes off on the man lined up on him and releases to the 2nd level.

A gaping hole opens up for the cutback as baker bends it back against the grain because the backside DE has gotten way too far upfield and gets sucked in by a good QB rollout fake. QB fakes are one of my pet peeves.  They seem like such small things, but they can make the difference on a lot of plays.  Denard has been great at this. Crist, not so much.

The safety is in position to stop this play after 10 yards, but he misjudges Baker's speed

He doesn't breakdown, gets his feet tangled, and Baker is off to the races (thanks to some good downfield blocking by the WR). And as anyone who's been watching Michigan football the last few years knows all too well, when the safety misses a tackle, the result is usually DOOM.

Here's another play that either shows the speed of MSU's RBs or the lack of speed by ND's safeties.

The formation is a simple I slot left. The OLB is in good position to defend the bubble screen.

On the snap, the QB reverses out and the left guard pulls.  This is in the 4th quarter and the entire front seven gets sucked into this power iso dive look. 

The tailback takes one plant step to the right and then cuts hard left to take the quick pitch.  The slot man needs to get a block on the OLB, but the safety is unblocked.

But he takes a terrible angle.  The DE has no hope of catching Baker.

The result is a 15 yard gain.

Karma is a bitch

Ok, ND fans have a right to some whining this week, sort of. 

Yes Cunningham was out of bounds on his tying TD catch, and yes it should have been a flag because he wasn't really pushed out. 

Yes, the play clock was at zero on the fake field goal.

Yes, there could have been holding or offensive pass interference called on the fake field goal.

ND just got spartied in spartan stadium by the spartans.  We feel your pain, domers. It is written somewhere that every signature MSU win must come on a controversial play.  Like when Desmond was interfered with in the endzone. Like when TJ Duckett scored thanks to spartan bob and a blatant hold that wasn't called.  

But after the last century of favorable calls, phantom TD's, and other crazy BS that has gone ND's way, it was bound to balance out eventually.  Just consider the last two decades as balancing the preceding one hundred.

"Little Giants" was a ballsy call, nearly as good as Texas's fourth down 'roll left', and the football gods reward gutsy moves. 

So hopefully Dantonio will continue to make them, if it doesn't kill him first.   Get well soon, and thanks for an entertaining game coach D.