fair point that
We all have to be 100% committed to Ohio State winning this week. Most of you know why- We then control our own destiny as far as winning the big ten championship. There is also a tiny chance we could make the playoff, and it means Sparty loses, which is nice. In preparation for being a Bucks fan until Saturday, I have taken the following steps. Please tell me what I've missed. 1. Cut the sleeves off 9 t-shirts, one for each day of the week. 2. Stopped showering. It is too cold to go outside. 3. Practiced for hours spelling out O-I-H-O. Thanks guys, GO BUCKS!
There's been a popular line on this blog for the past 10 months or so, "Oakland is still in play." Popular in the sense that it is commonly used, not that any one likes it. The first pro team I remember rooting for was the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders' logo with the shield, crossed-swords, and eye-patched, leather helmeted Raider/Pirate guy was an undeniable lure for a six year old boy. I even had a black and grey winter hat with the Raiders logo front and center. That was the only non-Michigan hat I would wear. But then the Denver Broncos drafted Rob Lytle and I switched allegiances between bitter rivals as fast as only a six year old can.
Besides their iconic helmet, the Raiders have been famous for a few things: their fanbase (the cooler-poopers of the NFL,) Al Davis, Al Davis' unfortunate son, and leading the league in penalties every year by a wide margin. Standing on the sideline and looking out onto a field of yellow laundry, one could excuse Jim Harbaugh for thinking he actually ended up in Oakland. Michigan committed 13 penalties, costing 72 yards. I dare say every one of those was earned. After giving MSU and Rutgers 4 first downs with penalties, Michigan gave Indiana 3 first downs via yellow hanky. Indiana returned the favor by committing 9 penalties for 79 yards. The Michigan of old would take advantage of a sloppy team. This Michigan team has yet to learn the difference between aggression and controlled aggression. When the senior captain ends up in the opponent's backfield before the ball arrives, it's apparent that something is missing.
Jim Harbaugh has mentioned how he passes by the statue of Bo Schembechler on his way to work. That prompted me to skim through my copy of Bo's Lasting Lessons looking for a nugget of wisdom to share with Team 136. Don't look in the index under "penalties." I'll bet Bo hated penalties so much he forbade Bacon to index them. What I did find was this passage,
Sloppiness in this building breeds sloppiness on the field. When a sloppy guy lines up, he'll jump offsides. When he goes out for a pass, he'll run a bad route. And when he carries the ball, he'll fumble it. Why? Because he's sloppy!
This quote, as with most things in life, reminds me of a Seinfeld episode.
Poppy and Team 136 are a little sloppy. Here's hoping the Michigan football team cleans things up in the next two weeks.
Burst of Impetus
* I'm torn here between the first play of the second half and the Indiana punt return touchdown that shortly followed. Michigan had built a 24-16 lead at halftime. Indiana was giving our defense trouble, but we were getting them off the field and forcing them to kick field goals. A good, sustained, scoring drive to start the second half would shorten the game and put us up by two scores. Instead, Michigan put Peppers in motion and pitched the ball to him as he crossed in front of the quarterback. Indiana's defense was ready for this and stopped Peppers for an 8 yard loss. An incompletion and a sack followed setting up 4th and 25. The ensuing punt was returned for a TD and all of a sudden it was a ballgame that was going down to the wire, and then some.
The Two Jakes
* Indiana's QB threw for 220 yards and their running back ran for 238 yards.
* Jake Rudock threw for 440 yards.
* Jake Rudock ran for 64 yards.
* Jake Rudock gained more yards than Indiana's prolific tandem of Sudfeld and Howard. Jake Rudock gained 504 yards running and throwing. Those are Denard Robinson numbers.
* Jake Buttttttt caught seven passes for 82 yards. He could have approached 100 yards if Rudock had turfed a couple obvious negative plays instead of throwing to Butt with a man all over him. This is a minor quibble considering the, you know, 504 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Root Tree Runners
* After spending much of the season spreading the ball out among numberous receivers, this was the Chesson/Darboh/Butt show. They accounted for 25 of Jake's 33 completions.
* I've probably grumbled more about Chesson's receiving abilities than most. He's an incredible runner and blocker, and Saturday he showed he's capable of being an incredible wide receiver as well, with 10 receptions for 207 yards and 4 TDs.
* The leading rusher was Jake Rudock with 64 yards at 9.1 yards per carry.
* Smith did the bulk of the running from the backfield, carrying 12 times for 58 yards.
Tacos and Peppers
* Our leading tacklers were safeties Delano Hill and Jarrod Wilson with 10 each. I don't have to tell you that's not a good sign. Hill did have the game-winning BrUp.
* Michigan only had 4 TFLs for 17 yards. 12 of those yards came on one sack. The inability to tackle Indiana behind the LOS was a big reason IU put up 41 points.
* There was only one FF, no FRs, no INTCs, no Blkd passes, and no QHs. I think you have to credit Indiana for having a very good offense, acknowledge that Michigan was missing Glasgow, Ojemudia, and Mone from the defensive line, and that combined with the "tempo" hurt Michigan badly. Tempo is in quotes because Indiana very rarely went hurry up. They got to the line and waited 20 seconds to get the right play called. My fear level for OSU ratcheted up a couple points. They can do what Indiana did with Howard and ADD a running threat from the QB position.
* This is the spot where I've been tracking total plays this season. There actually weren't that many plays run considering this was a double OT game and Indiana is noted for their pace. We ran 74 plays to their 89. There were 35 special teams plays (17.7%,) mostly extra points, field goals and kickoffs. There were only 5 punts total in the game, and only 2 of those were from IU.
* Michigan gave up another punt return TD this week. This one can be blamed on sloppy tackling.
* 20 of Indiana's 32 first downs came in the first half. I took a look at the drive chart for an explanation for the discrepancy between 1st and 2nd halves. Thanks to the punt return, Indiana only had 3 real second half drives. Those took 9, 9, and 8 plays, but only consumed 10 minutes and 11 seconds of the clock. It's hard to gain a lot of first downs when you don't have the ball.
* All but one of Michigan's first half drives took less than 2 minutes. All but one of Michigan's second half drives took more than 2 minutes. I don't know if this was a conscious halftime adjustment, or just the variability of this crazy game. If anything, I thought Indiana was using more of the play clock by looking to the sideline before almost every snap.
* Since time of possession is meaningless, I also looked at total plays. Indiana ran 54 plays in the first half, but only 35 in the second half and overtime.
* Net yards rushing was 307 to 141 in favor of Indiana. I remember being on the other side of that many times. It was only the last two seasons of the RichRod era where we were outgained like that on the ground.
* I'm not sure what I'm going to track under the Ooga-Booga category. It's either going to be horrible announcing or jinxes. Brock Huard had me thinking back fondly of the days Matt Millen called our games. Bob Windshield (as my son called him,) is just a guy. So if there was an ooga-booga, it was the fact that our #1 defense against the run gave up over 300 yards to Indiana. I tried explaining the ooga-booga jinx concept to my son, but he just responded with a confused look and said, "but we won." He's right, and there's nothing sloppy about that.
My son and I went to see the game yesterday. It was generally a great time -- lots of Michigan fans, the north "grass" lot was pretty much a huge Michgan party -- and the game itself was obviously exciting albeit disconcertingly close.
I would be curious, though, if others who went to the game felt the same way as me about the whole experience. Here are a few random thoughts:
1. The whole scene at IU is really campy and
dorky. They have a "players walk" from Assembly Hall to the stadium before the game. It was very awkward. The band plays on the steps of Assembly Hall while the cheerleaders dance for a while, then the players march to the field.
2. They call their band the "marching 100." Their PA announcer repeatedly calls them that.
3. They have a cartoon shark that swims on the scoreboard on third downs and it seems they have tried to get a sort of "gator chomp" thing going -- but it's not clear why and not many fans do it. Also, right at the most exciting part of the game, they had a Super Mario bros inspired bike race in the north end zone with two middle aged ladies riding bikes between cones and over a ramp. I have no idea what that was.
4. Their PA announcer is the most egregiously irritating person I have ever heard. Each time they got a first down he shouted "First down HOOOOOSIERS!" The fans all echo him when he says "Hoosiers." When they are on defense he would excitedly say "stand up fans! It's THIRD DOWN!!!"
5. Canadian Cowbell Girl Michigan fan. Has anyone else tailgated near this group? They are apparently from Canada, and one of their group is a girl who appears to be about 20-25 years old. She wears striped maize and blue pants and a maize cape with a blue maple leaf on it. She can hold an insane amount of alcohol. During the game she ran all around the stadium with her cowbell tapping out the bit before everyone says "Go Blue!" I was fascinated, horrified, and inspired by her. Does she go to all the games? It seems she must. I thought she would be passed out in a pool of her own vomit by halftime, but she was going strong the whole game with that cowbell.
6. Indiana fans in general were nice, polite, cheered well etc. The seemed flabbergasted that they were even in the game. They were also very campy and said obvious things all game long like "it looks like we'll probably have to punt here." Or "their receivers run better routes than ours." The guy behind us kept saying that Michigan should "go for two since they're the away team. Isn't that usually how it goes?" At first I hated him, but after a while I felt sorry for him. He wasn't so much a jerk as an ignoramus.
7. That offensive pass interference call near the end of the game was not legit. We got a break on that one.
8. Jordan Howard is for real. They kept running that stretch play and he timed his cuts perfectly. Their interior offensive line must be grossly underrated.
9. Once 98 on their d-line went down with what appeared to be cramping, I knew we would win. He was the man.
10. Not to be master of the obvious here, but our d-line looked tired and flat. There was no pass rush whatsoever. Sudfield had all day to throw.
11. I thought Dymonte was out for the year the way he was laying on the ground after that kickoff. But he was on the field playing at the end during crunch time. Awesome. It was also cool to see they defense high fiving the offense as they came on the field after the d couldn't hold during those last few drives. My sense was that Michigan never felt like they were going to lose.
Overall it was a good experience, but my sense was that they weren't quite sure how to be football fans there. It seemed novel to them and their support for their team was not spontaneous and natural.
I would be curious to hear what other people who went to the game thought.
I also haven't watched it yet on tv. Why were we getting so gashed on those run plays, particularly on their latter few drives?
Final thought: Chesson was in one on one coverage on the outside almost the whole game. That last touchdown pass I thought "finally!" It seemed like they could have exploited that more. Indiana was clearly stacking the line trying to stop the run. I guess that's why Rudock threw for 440 yards.
With apologies to stephenrjking, I thought I'd lift his idea a bit and show a 3 week path to the playoffs?!! playoffs!! Let me preface this by saying I don't really think UM is the 4th best team in the nation, especially in current form on DL (what was the team's strength) nor do I see us holding up that well vs a few teams (hi Bama) in said playoffs but that's not the conversation.
Here is the general theme for how it would work:
- Clemson and Bama win out and win their conferences without drama
- Stanford beats Notre Dame
- Whatever chaos happens in the Big 12 I don't care - I am ceding them a spot. I assume OK or OK State at this point but it doesn't matter who.
- UM wins out
- Houston winning out doesn't get them into the top 4
- Tons of upsets don't happen - any that happen esp in P12 would only help UM
I'll cover the major wrenches to scenario at end of piece.
Week by week ranks, again the exact spot doesn't matter week to week - being off by 1 or 3 spots is not an issue. All that matters is final 4 in the last week (column 4) but this gives you the jist of movement.
In this scenario 11-2 UM is compared to winner of Pac 12 championship game (also with 2 losses) for final spot in last week by committee. That would be Utah or Stanford.
|This Week||Next Week||Two Weeks||Final Week|
|1||Clemson 10-0||Clemson 11-0||Clemson 12-0||Clemson 13-0|
|2||Bama 9-1||Bama 10-1||Bama 11-1||Bama 12-1|
|3||OSU 10-0||OSU 11-0||Iowa 12-0||Oklahoma 11-1|
|4||ND 9-1||ND 10-1||Oklahoma 11-1||???|
|5||Iowa 10-0||Iowa 11-0||Florida 11-1||???|
|6||Oklahoma 9-1||Oklahoma 10-1||NC 11-1||Iowa 12-1|
|7||OK State 10-0||OK State 11-0||UM 10-2||OSU 11-1|
|8||Florida 9-1||Florida 10-1||OSU 11-1||OK State 11-1|
|9||Baylor 8-1||UM 9-2||Stanford 10-2||Florida 11-2|
|10||MSU 9-1||FSU 9-2||Utah 10-2||NC 11-2|
|11||UM 8-2||NC 10-1||LSU* 10-2||loser of Stan/Utah 10-3|
|12||FSU 8-2||Stanford 9-2||OK State 11-1||ND 10-2|
|13||TCU 9-1||Utah 9-2||ND 10-2||moot|
|14||NC 9-1||LSU* 8-2||NW 10-2||moot|
|15||Stanford 8-2||NW 9-2||Houston 12-0||moot|
|16||Utah 8-2||Houston 11-0||Baylor 10-2||moot|
|17||NW 8-2||MSU 9-2||MSU 10-2||moot|
|18||LSU 7-2||Navy 9-1||Navy 8-2||moot|
|19||Houston 10-0||Baylor 8-2||TCU 9-3||moot|
|20||Navy 8-1||TCU 9-2||FSU 9-3||moot|
This week results
tl;dr - every game goes as expected i.e. chalk. Any upset helps UM. I don't care what the Big 12 does as I've conceded them a playoff spot. OSU beats MSU.
- All creampuff opponents are defeated by ranked teams
- UM beats PSU
- NC beats VATech
- OSU beats MSU
- Oklahoma beats TCU - not that important really
- Baylor plays OK State - don't care who wins, to make it more of a stress test on UM I'll pick OK State
- Utah beats UCLA - if they lose it eliminates them so that's even better
- NW plays Wisconsin - don't care other than SOS
- Stanford beats Cal - if they lose it eliminates them so that's even better
- Notre Dame beats BC - if they lose it helps UM
- LSU beats Ole Miss - moot point, they have 2 losses and have no chance to play in their conf championship so not a threat to UM
Next week results
tl;dr - UM beats OSU. ND loses to Stanford. Whatever happens in B12 happens.
- UM beats OSU
- Stanford beats ND (this is the most important non UM game other than OSU beating MSU)
- Iowa can win or lose v Neb - better for SOS they win but don't care much, assume win
- Houston beats Navy
- Baylor beats TCU - but I don't care, I've conceded a spot to B12 with a 0 or 1 loss team
- Oklahoma beats OK State - don't care either way. If Oklahoma loses they have 2 losses and dont have a championship game to redeem themselves. If they win I expect them in playoffs. If OK State wins they go to playoffs.
- Florida beats FSU
- Utah beats Colo
- NC beats NC State
- Clemson, Bama etc etc win
Final week results
tl;dr - UM beats Iowa, Stanford or Utah win to finish with 2 losses, Clemson doesn't Clemson vs NC, Bama beats Florida
- UM beats Iowa
- Stanford or Utah wins P12 - if anyone else does it would be huge for UM
- Clemson beats NC
- Bama beats Florida
If Notre Dame beats Stanford I see them taking the 4th spot because dolla dolla bill yo, and the computers love their SOS. This despite them not winning a conf championship and being 11-1 instead of 12-1. But $$$$$ baby.
Let's assume they do lose which again other than OSU beating OSU and UM winning out is THE most important lever, here are other wrinkles.
1) NC beats Clemson in the ACC championship game
Would they dare put 12-1 NC and 12-1 Clemson in the playoffs? I feel no as conf championship matter. But Clemson losing by 3 or less vs a "top 8" team and then only having that 1 loss - they could make a valid argument.
2) UM beats OSU by 3 pts or less. Then does a snoozefest vs Iowa to the tune of say 12-10.
Do they dare put OSU - whose only loss would be to a "top 10 team" on the road in ahead of the conf champion who has 2 losses? I feel no as conf championships matter. But OSU 1 loss vs UM 2 loss - I guess it's debatable.
3) The P12 champion is seen as better than UM. Especially problematic if Utah wins the P12 championship.
This one is probably the main issue - you would have an immense debate in the committee. Stanford and UM had 2 common opponents, NW and Utah. So that's a wash. We would have beaten Iowa and OSU but Stanford would have beaten ND and Utah late. So both teams beating top 10-12ish opponents. Very close call but I think they give this to UM due to dolla dolla bills yo.
But if Utah wins the championship game they also have 2 losses as we do and beat us head to head with a Stanford scalp late. Hmm...tough one. Coin toss here.
4) Some will say two 1 loss Big 12 teams could get in over 2 loss UM - I say nonsense. They dont play a conf championship therefore those 1 loss teams would not be exposed to a 2nd loss that every other conf exposes its champion too. So a 2nd Big 12 team over Big 10 champion would be a no go despite some saying it's possible. $$$$ is in the Big 10.
5) Florida runs the table beats Bama in the SEC championship game.
Then you have 1 loss Florida and 2 loss Bama. Tough one man. While I think 2 loss Bama would beat 2 loss UM in a real game and it would be ESSEC's dream scenario man that would be a tough pill to swallow. I guess possible. Either way root for FSU to beat Florida in a few weeks just to be safe(r).
Very chilly start to the day! Bundle up with some lightweight layers, hold those hand warmers, and grab the hot coffee if you'll be up early! Bloomington is looking at one of its coldest mornings since March - starting off the day in the upper 20s. Although we'll have quite the frosty start, we'll have plenty of sunshine, and light winds out of the west - which will still be enough to create a wind chill in the low 20s early on. Mid-morning we hit 35 degrees, and have light winds out of the SW. It'll still feel like 30. We can thaw out a little towards lunch, when temps warm to 45 and we start to lose that wind chill factor. Winds will be out of the SW and light.
54 degrees for the beginning of the game! Not too bad considering where we start in the morning! Blue skies across the area - if anything a few high thin clouds. Winds will be light - out of the SW at 5mph - just enough to feel it on your skin and rustle a couple leaves.
Halftime is still looking pretty comfy! We only lose a couple of degrees during the first half, and still have lots of sun. We'll drop into the 40s during the second half as the sun starts to set. Winds remain light - out of the SSW at about 5mph.
Calm winds and clear skies leaving Memorial Stadium to celebrate a win! If you're headed out to dinner, expect temps in the mid 40s, going down to the upper 30s if you'll be out for last call - you might want that extra layer from tailgating if that's your plan. Winds will stay out of the SSW right around 5mph. If you're headed home Sunday you'll have great travel weather - dry conditions, lighter winds, highs around 60, and sunny skies.
If you're staying home... A chilly but mainly sunny day in Ann Arbor. We start the morning in the low 30s with W winds around 10mph and some cloud cover. We'll hit the upper 40s in the afternoon - right around normal for this time of year - but it'll feel closer to 40 with W winds around 15mph. We may have a few gusts around 20mph near lunchtime (this is when you'd see small branches sway a bit). Winds shift throughout the afternoon to come out of the SW, staying between 5-10mph for the rest of the day. Mostly clear skies let temps fall back into the mid 30s for dinner, so you may want the winter coat if you'll be out! Sunday you can put the coat back in the closet - we'll be up around 60 with sunny skies.
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for ABC in Flint, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
A few weeks ago I decided I wanted to play with some web scraping and RShiny and thought building a toy for the MGoCommunity to be able to look at old players would be a fun project.
I now have the points to actually post a new message and it's all up-to-date, so here it is:
I've put the project up on github:
for anyone to grab and improve. Until I move it to a different host, I'll need to keep the live version updated if anyone makes changes.
Things it can do:
- Make plots of individual players pluses, minuses, and total +/- from the charts of all the UFRs since the end of 2005.
- Look at position group totals as well in the same way as above
- Aggregate numbers to their mean by year for cleaner viewing
- Compare players +/- side-by-side on the same scale
- There is a sortable table for looking at best/worst career/season/game or for looking at the raw data for any players
- RPS/other team metrics can be viewed in the Single Player Tab, their position is "TM" in the Sortable Table if that matters
- Top 10/Bottom 10 lists - quick look at a wall of fame/shame to get context for particularly big or rough games.
- Automatically checks for new UFR data on viewing. Should keep it up to date as long as it's used (probably at least by me) every 4 games or so.
Things to fix:
- Pressure metric for D is missing since 2010 due to a typo in my scraping. I'll fix it at some point but this is a side project for me so timeframe is unknown
- iOS support bug - for some reason there is a resizing issue on iOS devices. No clue why; will try to fix it later
- Possibly change hosting do to some of the restrictions on that current host. I'll assess that based on traffic
Things to add:
Panel for Top 10/Bottom 10 lists - I already have the functions to do that and it's easy for anyone to check on their own with the table, but it would still be nice to have a dedicated panel to quickly look at a wall of fame/shame to get context for particularly big or rough games
- "Similar players" tool for trying to get an idea for who is grading out similar to players past - good and bad.
- Add ability to adjust for # of plays in a game. Would be even better to adjust for playing time per person, but that might be ambitious.
I've started sharing a few of the plots in UFR threads in order to finally get the mgopoints to be able to post (Been a lurker since forever...). Some examples are below. The x-axis labels should be more legible on the web app:
I hope the community likes it, please give feedback! Feel free to "Save Image As..." and share images at your leisure, though obviously I'd appreciate the source being mentioned.