Diaries

Since there are only roughly nine spots left in the 2012 class it's already time to take a look at more prospects in the 2013 class. With Shane Morris committed and a handful of offers extended, the Michigan coaches are definitely getting a head start.

One 2013 lineman that could start to hear more from Michigan is Illinois offensive tackle Kyle Bosch (6'5", 275 lbs). Bosch has racked up offers from Arizona, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, and West Virginia. He's also hearing from programs outside his offer list, and hopes to hear from more. Here's a look at his film and what he had to say about his recruitment.

TOM: I know it's still early for you but what schools are you hearing from so far?

KYLE: I'm hearing from Notre Dame, Indiana, Illinois, Florida, Ohio State, West Virginia, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona, Penn State, Boston College, Stanford, Northwestern, and a couple more.

TOM: Wow, that's a lot. What do you think has gotten you so much attention? What are schools saying about you?

KYLE: Most colleges are saying that I play with a chip on my shoulder and I'm not afraid to get my hands dirty. They also like how I always play to the whistle.

TOM: What about Michigan, are they a school that you hope to hear from?

KYLE: Absolutely. They are not only a great football school but they also put major focus on academics. It has the best of both worlds.

TOM: Do you think you'll get up to Michigan this summer, or for a game? What about summer visits in general?

KYLE: I went to a couple camps this summer but now my camp circuit is done. I actually tried to contact Michigan and tell them I wanted to visit because I was going up there anyways for the MSU camp, but I couldn't get a hold of anyone. I'd love to get up there I just need to figure it out. [TomVH ED: Contact rules are strict, so they probably couldn't call him back. Happens a lot.]

TOM: When you go to evaluate a school what are you looking for?

KYLE: I'm looking for a coaching staff that I could see myself playing four years for and enjoying my time there. I'm also looking at the type of academics they offer because in the end no matter how good you are football will end. You always need something to fall back on.

TOM: You've mentioned academics, do you already have an idea of what you want to major in?

KYLE: Business or political science.

TOM: So it's safe to assume that the business school at each program will be important too?

KYLE: Yeah, that'd be safe to say.

TOM: Ok, and how do you see all this playing out? When do you think you'll try to make your decision?

KYLE: I will probably wait until signing day of my senior year to make my decision. 

It was a busy weekend for Michigan with both Chris Wormley and Kyle Kalis making it in to visit. With roughly ten spots left (Ed: Now 9!), remaining recruits are watching every move, and Michigan's coaches must be strategic in their actions. Here's a look at what's been happening and what could happen next. As always you can follow me on Twitter here, and if you have any tips or questions email me at TomVH@MGoBlog.com.

Chris Fox (2013)

6'6", 297 lbs.

Offensive Lineman

Parker, Colorado

Fox was a standout performer at Michigan's camp this past week. The Michigan coaches liked the 2013 prospect so much that they offered him once he left.

I talked to Coach Hoke and Coach Funk and they offered me. I got a Colorado offer a few weeks ago, too. The [Michigan coaches] told me that I fit what they're trying to accomplish, and that I look like a Michigan guy. 

Fox traveled all the way from Colorado to Michigan just to camp, the trip ended up being well worth the distance. Not only did he get his offer but he also started the foundation for a relationship with Coach Funk.

I'm definitely comfortable with Coach Funk and all the coaches there now. Coach Funk was out in Colorado and stopped by our school and I actually have some family that lives up in Michigan. I love Michigan, they have great football and it would be awesome to go there. Both my parents were born and raised in Michigan too. My family is kind of split in half with Michigan and Michigan State fans. Right now I've only heard from Michigan, MSU hasn't really contacted me.

The camp gave Fox a good look at how the Michigan coaches interact with players and a good feel for the campus.

I'd definitely like to get out [to Michigan] for a game this season. It would be great to get out there. I liked everything, the campus was incredible and the Big House is incredible. I don't have a list yet, I'm just going through the process with open eyes looking for my best fit. As of right now Michigan and Colorado are my top two because they've offered.

Now that he's been on campus and gained a level of comfort with the staff, he feels great about what Michigan has to offer and where he is in the process.

It just feels good to know that I have options this early and it feels good to know that I could go there. I'd like to make my decision before my senior year so that's probably what I'll do, sometime next summer. 

Fox is a name that seems to be popping up all over the place now, so I wouldn't be surprised if he got some big time attention soon. Early offers for offensive lineman are usually good signs of talent level and Fox should be right up near the top.

Chris Wormley

6'4", 255 lbs.

Defensive End

Toledo, Ohio

Wormley made a visit up to Ann Arbor this weekend. He's been relatively quiet lately and generally doesn't like talking to the media. I did catch up with him via text to see how his visit went, and where he's going from here. He briefly said the following.

It went very well. Yes I definitely came closer to a decision. My family and girlfriend [went on the visit], and I loved every part of it, but joking around with the coaches was the best part. 

I asked if he knew when he would like to make his announcement or decision and he said he will make it when it feels it's right. I can't imagine that it would be much longer though. This visit seems to have been a positive for Michigan moving him in the right direction, so we'll see when it happens.

LaQuon Treadwell (2013)

6'3", 190 lbs.

Wide Receiver

Crete, Illinois

Treadwell is the younger teammate of 2012 Michigan commit Anthony Standifer. LaQuon accompanied Standifer on his visit to Ann Arbor and immediately saw what his teammate liked so much about Michigan.

Going in I expected it to be great and that's what it was. I think it was overall a great experience, the buildings, the field, and the coaches were great. The field and the academic center where you do all your class work were probably the best parts.

Since he's new to the process he feels that he benefited from Standifer's presence on the visit.

Anthony was asking most of the questions so I was picking off of him and just going off of what he was saying. I'll probably do what Anthony did and decide in the summer too. He talks to me about Michigan a lot and him being committed there helps them with me.

Their coach does not let them visit other schools or decommit once they have committed to a school, so he wants to make sure he gets it right. Treadwell has also been hearing from Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, and Vanderbilt.

Who's Left?

With 16 17 commitments already in this class it seems likely that Michigan will have most of their spots filled by the time the season hits. Here's who's left and where they are in the process.

Offensive line (1-2):

• Nashville OL Blake Bars: Committed on Sunday.
• Ohio OL Kyle Kalis: Just took a visit to Michigan. He isn't saying much to reporters right now, but I did speak to him today. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes his decision very soon. There are a lot of rumors out there, but like I said he's not saying much in public so be careful what you believe. 
• Illinois OL Jordan Diamond: Michigan is still in great position, as they always have been. Jordan's mother says that she's not sure when his decision will come but she wouldn't be surprised if he waited until after the season. He's gone back and forth so we'll just have to wait and see his final decision.
• Pennsylvania OL Adam Bisnowaty: His athletic director told me that ideally Adam would like to take a few official visits then decide. Adam has also been quiet (a theme here) but I should have something from him soon. He seems to be a forgotten name, but the Michigan coaches do really like him.
• Arizona OL Andrus Peat: I also reported how Peat's visit to Michigan went a week ago. Don't get too excited about Peat yet, I still think he ends up elsewhere but stranger things have happened. 
• Washington OL Joshua Garnett: Recently put Michigan in his top eleven and told me back in May that he would like to take an official visit to Michigan, which he still maintains. I should have more on him this week, but spots remaining could end up being an issue here depending on timelines and decisions of his peers.
• Washington OL Zach Banner: The same can be said for Banner as with Garnett. Timing and space might hinder this, but we'll see how it plays out.

Defensive Line (2-3):

• Missouri DT Ondre Pipkins: He told me last week that he will be making a visit to Michigan in July or August, we'll see which one it ends up being. He also might choose to move up his decision, which is interesting.
• Michigan DT Danny O'Brien: Performed well at Michigan's camp this past weekend and told me the coaches were impressed. He also told me the Michigan coaches expressed that they want one interior lineman, which seems to be between Pipkins, O'Brien, and kind of Sheldon Day. I do think there is still a chance they could take both. O'Brien would ideally like to take a couple official visits, but is also watching what Pipkins does in his recruitment.
• Ohio DE Adolphus Washington: He and teammate Dwayne Stanford are still trying to reschedule their trip to Ann Arbor. Stanford told me they are waiting because of the Fourth of July holiday. I don't think we'll know how interested they really are until they visit. They both were very fond of Ohio State so it could be interesting how it plays out.
• Ohio DE Chris Wormley: As mentioned above Michigan is in good shape with Chris and he's going to announce when he feels he's ready.

Safety (1):

• Ohio S Jarrod Wilson: I posted a few days ago that Wilson will be announcing in July 8th at 2:30pm EST per his coach's email and press release. 

Others:

• The other prospects Michigan is recruiting like Bri'onte Dunn, Ron Thompson, Aaron Burbridge, Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson, Alden Hill, EJ Fatu, and Sione Houma are still somewhat in limbo. Dunn, for example is still committed to Ohio State according to his father. His father told me Bri'onte would be at Ohio State's camp this past week and it looks like that happened. I still believe they're waiting to see what the sanctions are before making a move.

Extra:

PA running back Greg Garmon told me that he received an offer from Ohio State this weekend. I was told that he worked out at camp as a defensive back and may have been offered as an athlete. It's interesting to say the least that he received an offer from them. He also told me that Michigan is still in it for him and that he, "Loves them."

New Jersey ATH Devin Fuller told me that he's not sure of the exact date but he would still like to make it out to Michigan this summer. 

Busy, busy week in the Big Ten. There's no way that Thursday was anything less than the busiest day for commitments since I started this here exercise. (Tons of) action since last rankings:

6-19-11 Michigan State gains commitment from Se'Von Pittman. Indiana gains commitment from Dan Feeney. Minnesota loses commitment from Andre McDonald.
6-20-11 Iowa gains commitment from Cameron Wilson. Nebraska gainst commitment from Sam Cotton. Indiana gains commitment from Dawson Fletcher. Purdue gains commitment from BJ Knauf.
6-21-11 Ohio State loses commitment from Kyle Kalis. Iowa gains commitment from Drew Ott.
6-22-11 Wisconsin gains commitment from Hugs Etienne. Purdue gains commitment from Thomas Meadows. Indiana gains commitment from Caleb Cornett.
6-23-11 Michigan State gains commitments from Kyle Kerrick, Jamal Lyles, and Josiah Price. Wisconsin gains commitments from Arthur Goldberg and Reggie Mitchell. Northwestern gains commitments from Eric Olson, Jack Schwaba, and Adam DePietro. Minnesota gains commitment from Drew Davis. Nebraska gains commitment from Greg McMullen. Indiana gains commitments from Jordan Wallace, Kevin Davis, and Mike Cotton. Purdue gains commitment from Paul Griggs. Iowa gains commitment from Maurice Fleming.
6-25-11 Penn State gains commitments from Austin Johnson and Derek Dowrey. Ohio State gains commitment from De'Van Bogard. Northwestern gains commitment from Chris Fitzpatrick. Indiana gains commitment from Tanner Kearns. Iowa gains commitment from Connor Kornbrath.

*ESPN doesn't rate JUCOs, so Isaac Fruechte is not included in Minnesota's average.

Michigan grabbed a verbal commitment from Oak Hills offensive lineman Caleb Stacey (6'4", 275 lbs) back in March. The commitment came directly after a visit to West Virginia mainly because Stacey said he just knew Michigan was the right place. The decision was made so quickly that his parents never had the chance to see Ann Arbor or the campus. 

Stacey brought his parents up to Michigan for the first time today to show them what he fell in love with. "Since it was their first time up there they were really impressed with everything," he said. "First we went to the academic center and they were blown away."

The academic presentation is usually a topic of discussion for parents after a Michigan visit, and this time was no different. "My mom, this was really only her second visit. She came with me to Miami (Ohio) and she was so happy that she teared up a little bit," said Caleb. "She looked at me and said great choice." The academics and support that Michigan provides not just during football, but after his college career really seemed to strike a chord with the Stacey family. 

"After that we checked out the trophy room and we saw all the facilities," he said. "My dad was really excited about the Big House. He said he can't wait to get there for a game." Mom is excited about academics and dad is excited for the game, sounds like the norm. The Stacey's also got a chance to meet with Caleb's future position coach Darrell Funk. Coach Hoke was unavailable but the family took enough away to feel more than comfortable with their son's choice.

Inspired by the general concensus that the number of returning starters in college football matter and a diary by NOLA Blue in which he discussed how Michigan would fare against opponents in 2011-12 based on returning starters, some of the comments (including my own) criticized looking at pure numbers of returning starters rather than the actual players returning.

It got me thinking if there was any predictablity to be found in pure numbers of returning starters (from now on referred to as RS) and if that translated into wins the next year by having a high amount of RS or losses by having a low amount.

Using Phil Steele's lists of RS I looked at the record for every team in a BCS conference plus Notre Dame in 2008-09, then listed how many starters they would be returning for the 2009-10 season, then added their record for the 2009-10 season, and noted the change in the amount of wins between the two seasons. I repeated that for the 2009-10 season going into the 2010-11 season.

One important note is that I had to decide what to do when teams played a different amount of games in consecutive seasons. For example a team plays 13 games in season one and goes 10-3. The next year in season two the same team plays 14 games and goes 10-4. Technically, they won the same amount of games in both years and the difference in wins is 0 but the team had an extra game to get 10 wins. I decided to handle this by using 0.5's  In this case I would give the team a win change of -0.5 for winning the same amount of games but having an extra game to do it in. This also works to the benefit of some teams.

Here is what I came up with:

Seasons 2008-09 to 2009-10

And here is a table of number of RS and how many won more games, less games, or no change

Here is some info to take away from this.

When I refer to same, more, or less I am talking about the amount of wins between the two seasons.

Overall Win Amount: 13 same (19.69%), 29 more (43.93%), 24 less (36.36%) Total: 66 teams

RS with a QB win difference: 10 same (23.26%), 19 more (44.19%), 14 less (32.56%) Total: 43 teams

RS without a QB win difference: 3 same (13.04%), 10 more (43.48%), 10 less (43.48%) Total: 23 teams

9-13 RS: 5 same (27.78%), 6 more (33.33%), 7 less (38.89%) Total: 18 teams
14-16 RS: 5 same (16.13%), 13 more (41.94%), 13 less (41.94%) Total: 31 teams
17-20 RS: 3 same (17.65%), 10 more (58.82%), 4 less (23.53%) Total: 17 teams

I figured teams would be more successful with a returning QB and while that is supported somewhat in these years with 44.19% of teams going on to a better record the next season the teams without a returning QB were equally as likely to be more or less successful proving the lack of an experienced QB didn't significantly lessen the chances of improvement.

As the number of RS increased more teams did improve but I was surprised to see that not until a team returned 17 starters was it significantly more likely to. In the 15 or 16 RS number it still seemed close to a 50/50 to expect more or less wins.

More after the break

With news reports continuing to expose more violations on almost a weekly basis, it may still be premature to estimate the types of NCAA penalties the Ohio State football program may ultimately face.  But with the information already available, it appears that the Buckeyes could be headed for some of the fiercest sanctions the NCAA has imposed in over twenty years.  Times have certainly changed, and medieval penalties like TV bans or the vaunted SMU “death penalty” are probably off the table.  But with major college sports seemingly on the brink of a plunge into lawlessness, the infractions committee is likely to feel enough pressure to impose sanctions at least as stiff as similar offenders from the past.  Here’s a look at some prior NCAA scandals with elements similar to the malfeasance in Columbus, which—if the infractions committee wants to be consistent with its past punishments—may supply some guidance as to just what kind of damage the NCAA cyclone will do when it finally touches down.

1. Free Shoes University

What happened:  A Las Vegas sports agent made cash payments to at least 9 star players on Florida State’s MNC-winning football team, and funded at least one “after-hours shopping spree” in which players received shoes, coats, and other gear on the agent’s dime.  This most famously included a 1993 excursion to a Tallahassee Foot Locker, which ended with four carloads of FSU players carting off $6,000 worth of merchandise.  As Corey Sawyer, one of the players involved, later told Sports Illustrated, “We just bought out Foot Locker, period.   At least half the football team was there.” 

Sanctions Imposed: One year probation

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  Pretty similar to Tatgate in terms of the numbers of players involved, the nature of the infractions, and the amount of money the players received.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) while there were some indications that FSU coaches may have suspected that players had received improper benefits and did not take prompt action, this was never proven, and there was absolutely no evidence of a purposeful cover-up like at OSU; (2) the free shoes scandal was not coupled with a “test-drive our cars forever” policy at a local dealership

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: much greater, both because the OSU scandal is substantially more egregious and because the NCAA was heavily criticized for the laughably weak sanction it gave FSU for an infraction involving “half the football team.” 

     2. The USC/Reggie Bush Scandal

What happened:  USC star Reggie Bush set up a “business” with a sports agent, through which members of Bush’s family received benefits, including cash and a house, estimated at nearly $280,000 in value.  This happened at the same time as a separate scandal involving USC basketball star OJ Mayo, resulting in a dreaded “lack of institutional control” charge.  Trojans head football coach Pete Carroll, who had encouraged sports agents to hire USC players for internships, was found to have known about the improper benefits.

Sanctions Imposed: Two-year bowl ban, loss of 10 scholarships for three years (30 total), four-year probation in football, plus forfeiture of wins and championships; one-year post-season ban, loss of 3 scholarships over two years, and recruiting penalties in basketball

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  Probably the most significant point of commonality is that the USC head football coach was aware of the improper benefits but did not report them, and may have had a hand in facilitating the infractions (similarly, Tressel may have steered players to the Kniffen car dealership and may have connected Terrelle Pryor to greenpalmed boosters like Ted Sarniak).  While not engaging in an OSU-style cover-up, USC also failed to satisfactorily cooperate with the NCAA investigators.  The USC and OSU scandals are also close in time.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) Despite rampant speculation that players other than Reggie Bush received improper benefits, Bush was the only football player clearly proven to have done so; (2) USC violations spanned multiple sports whereas OSU’s violations were concentrated in football*

*Of course, it is possible that the Jim Tressel violations could date back to Jim O’Brien era in Buckeye hoops (see: M. Clarett) ; also, a recent report suggested reporters from ESPN are looking into possible point-shaving activity by OSU players, probably in basketball.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be:  About the same.  The USC sanctions seem to have established a new standard in the current era, in which TV bans (let alone the “death penalty”) are considered cruel & unusual.  The OSU facts are arguably worse, with an active cover-up and proof of widespread player involvement, but so if the NCAA finds the violations are limited to one sport then they might be less likely to drop the LOIC hammer.

     3. Michigan Hoops – Ed Martin Scandal

What Happened: Four Michigan basketball stars (Chris Webber, Mo Taylor, Louis Bullock, and Robert Traylor), and possibly a fifth (Albert White), accepted a total of more than $600,000 in “loans” from basketball booster Ed Martin—a former Ford Motor Co. electrician who also ran a numbers racket at Detroit auto plants.  Michigan coaches Bill Frieder and Steve Fischer allowed Martin access to the players and the program despite knowing of repeated instances in which Martin supplied or attempted to supply improper benefits to players or their families.  The NCAA learned of these violations through an investigation it launched following a 1996 roll-over car accident involving several players returning to Ann Arbor from a Detroit house party, when media reports indicated that UM had violated a rule against transporting a recruit (Mateen Cleaves) more than 30 miles from campus.

Sanctions Imposed: One year post-season ban, four years’ probation, loss of 4 scholarships over four years, ten-year “disassociation” from Webber, Bullock, Taylor, and Traylor, forfeiture of wins, championships, and post-season honors.  (Contrary to popular belief, the hiring of Brian Ellerbee was not an NCAA-imposed sanction).

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  (1) these scandals are remarkably similar in the nature of the violations and  in spanning long time periods; (2) the chairman of the NCAA infractions committee, Thomas Yeager, referred to the UM scandal as “one of the three or four most egregious violations of NCAA bylaws ever,” and the OSU scandal surely deserves a similar description.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) UM did not get caught in a secondary cover-up scandal; (2) whereas Michigan players accepted money from just Ed Martin, the OSU situation appears to involve multiple boosters and numerous sources of improper benefits (e.g., Ted Sarniak, the Kniffin car dealership, Fine Line Ink, etc.); (3) hoops vs. pigskins

 Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: somewhat greater.  The Ed Martin investigation dragged on for six years, the A.D. and all of the players and coaches implicated in the scandal had left by the time the sanctions came down—a factor that may have led to some leniency on the part of the NCAA; by contrast, the NCAA appears to be moving much more quickly in OSU’s case, and will likely impose the sanctions while delinquent players, coaches, and administrators are still in C-Bus.  This could change at the end of the 2011 season if, as is widely expected, Luke Fickell is replaced as HC by an outsider with a clean rep.  But this may be easier said than done for OSU administration if the players rally behind Fickell and turn in another 11-win season.  

     4. Alabama Football Recruiting Scandal

What Happened: Numerous Alabama boosters were found to have made large cash payments—many over $10,000 and one case $115,000—to high school coaches in return for steering recruits to sign with the Crimson Tide.  One recruit received the use of a car in return for his commitment to Alabama.  A booster was also found to have made cash payments directly to a recruit, but this violation occurred outside the NCAA’s limitations period.   The scandal, which involved conduct beginning in 1995, was exacerbated by Alabama’s status as a “repeat offender,” having been placed on probation in 1995 due to (former player) Antonio Langham accepting money from an agent and thus competing while ineligible during the 1993 season.

Sanctions Imposed: Two-year bowl ban, five years’ probation, loss of 21 scholarships over three years

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  The Alabama sanctions were the heaviest the NCAA had imposed on a football program, short of the death penalty, until the USC sanctions—and media reports (if you believe them) suggest the NCAA seriously considered the death penalty in Alabama’s case.  Yet, the Alabama scandal appears to have been even more egregious than the USC scandal.  This may indicate that the NCAA has stiffened its overall level of discipline.  Another point of similarity is that the Alabama investigation turned up evidence of gross violations (e.g., a $20,000 payment to a recruit) that were outside the NCAA limitations period; similarly, Tressel appears to have a well-documented history of misconduct that may not be admissible in connection with the present OSU proceedings (ahem, Clarett, ahem, hack, cough, Ray Isaac, ahem...).

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  (1) Alabama was largely punished for allowing boosters to pay high school coaches, not for providing benefits to recruits directly (as the OSU boosters appear to be doing); (2) it is not yet clear what the NCAA will be able to prove regarding the extent of OSU coaches’ involvement in arranging or “not noticing” the receipt of improper benefits by players.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: about the same.  See USC above.

     5. Pell Grant Scandal at The U

What Happened: Between 1989 and 1991, an “academic advisor” at Miami helped 50 or more athletes obtain over $200,000 in federal Pell Grants by submitting falsified applications.  Since the players had full-ride scholarships, the grant money went directly into their pockets.  In the wake of the scandal, SI called on Miami to disband its football program, and reported that “[f]ifty-seven players were implicated in a financial-aid scandal that the feds call ‘perhaps the largest centralized fraud upon the federal Pell Grant program ever committed.’"  The ensuing investigation also uncovered over $400,000 of other financial aid improperly paid to 141 football players, as well as other improprieties regarding a drug test policy.

Sanctions Imposed: One-year bowl ban, loss of 31 scholarships over three years, one-year bowl ban; also, the academic advisor who prepared the false applications was sentenced to three years in prison

Relevance to OSU Scandal:  While the nature of the infractions are considerably different, the end results are the same—large numbers of players receiving improper benefits having a relatively low cash value.  With the Miami case appearing objectively much more egregious than the OSU violations, the penalty ultimately assessed seems to suggest that the NCAA will not seriously consider scholarship reductions much above 30, or bowl bans lasting longer than one or two years, even for the worst offenses.

Key Differences with OSU Scandal:  At least with the OSU scandal, the players have who took money and cars from willing boosters and memorabilia dealers appear to have violated only the NCAA bylaws, not criminal laws.  In the Miami case, the funds were fraudulently procured from the U.S. government.  Even with the botched cover-up, it is unlikely the OSU scandal will eclipse the Miami scandal in terms of sheer criminality.   Also, the central role of Miami’s “academic advisor” lent a degree of plausible deniability to the coaching staff and athletic administrators—OSU’s folks are unlikely to enjoy that luxury.

Sanctions for OSU are likely to be: milder.  Tressel may have been a liar and a cheat, but at least he does not appear to have allowed university officials to steal public funds to pay his players.   

Oh, and since I know how much the mgoblog community likes charts:

Prediction for Ohio State (based on the above): 3-year bowl ban, reduction of 11 scholarships per year for 3 years (33-scholarship loss total), 5 years probation, forfeiture of wins and trophies for all games in which Terelle Pryor competed after he began receiving improper benefits

Some forseeable things that could aggravate the sanctions: (1) the NCAA amplifies the penalty due for having allowed it to happen less than five years after the OSU basketball scandal; or (2) violations in other sports (such as the rumored point-shaving in hoops) are uncovered; or (3) OSU fails to clean house after the 2011 football season