Diaries

It's amazing how easily we take things for granted. We become acclimated and everything turns into background noise, only to gain our attention when things shift unexpectedly. It's how I felt when I graduated and moved out of Ann Arbor, and it's how I've felt about this year's hockey team.

I was introduced to Michigan hockey in 2006. Having grown up in a house with a die-hard Michigan State alum for a mother and a father who cared more about what went on in the philosophy and astronomy world than the sports world I had some catching up to do. I remeber reading the Daily's hockey season preview and thinking that becoming a fan of Michigan hockey was just a natural extention of my love of the Red Wings. I folded up that newspaper insert and stuck it in my backpack so that I could re-read it whenever I wanted. My conversion to a Michigan hockey fan had begun.

I never made it to a game that season. Instead, I had to rely on keeping up with the team through Daily articles and watching the few games that I could find on TV. Jack Johnson became something of a folk hero to me, a player that I still regret not seeing play while he was wearing the winged helmet. I vowed to myself that I would not make the same mistake twice.

Fall 2007 rolls around and mini-season ticket packages go on sale. A few friends, my girlfriend (who's now my wife) and I decide to get a mini season ticket package. I'll never forget going to my first game at Yost. If there's one arena in the world that can't possibly be done justice by TV this is it. I remember walking in through the cramped corridors and past the ornate woodwork. Then you walk into the stands and it's a fluorescent blast of white exacerbated by a sheet of ice. The corridors scream history while the inside of the rink just screams. If Michigan hockey is powered by a fuse box it only has one switch and that switch, which is permanently flipped, has "ON" printed above it on label tape. 

I went to a CCHA playoff game that season and was struck by how the regular season atmosphere is essentially the same as the playoff atmosphere. There's no way for it to get louder and rowdier than it already is, especially when you're in the student section. At the time that seemed hard to believe. Again, I wasn't used to Michigan hockey just yet. Having been a Red Wings fan for so long you get acclimated to regular season games with half empty lower bowls that switch to rabid sell outs when the second or third round of the playoffs roll around.

The energy of Yost spoiled me, and I didn't realize that until this season. When things are about to be taken away from you, that's when you realize just how good you had it. I didn't think there would be a CCHA playoff game at Yost this year. Not after watching a team that had block M's on the front of their jersey but looked oh so unfamiliar otherwise. Now I realize just how amazing the atmosphere at Yost is. Now I realize just how important the CCHA playoffs are. These aren't throwaway games anymore, this is our ticket to the tournament. And, finally, I'm watching a Michigan team that I recognize. This is a team that somehow, someway dug deep and emerged from the shell of...well, whatever that was that took the ice from October through February. Maybe they realized what I realized; it's easy to take things for granted until you're about to lose them.

There aren't many goals to breakdown here, but that's a good thing. A team that was allowing almost four goals per game gave up two this weekend. Two! And I can't even make a joke about only giving up two and it not even being non-exhibition play because they gave up more than that to like Windsor, man. Let's analyze:

(Posted on behalf of MGoUser Blue Ribbon, who lacked the points but not the effort.)

These are some thoughts I had after the PSU game, prompted partly by MBB’s recent stretch of blah and partly by MGoUser Erik_in_Dayton’s excellent diary about the pitfalls of being a Kansas-style fan.  First off, I have to admit I didn’t actually watch the game.  I recorded it and then went to the gym, and stupidly left my TV on BTN when I left.  When I got home I realized my mistake, but figured it was late enough that the game would have ended.  I was right about that; I turned on the tube and saw the aftermath of a court-rushing in Happy Valley.  So, I checked the score online, saw the ugly truth, and decided not only to spare myself the pain, but to delete the recording, because teams beating Michigan are not welcome on my DVR.  

It occurred to me that some people might say that my decision to forgo the pain of watching PSU earn their first conference win makes me less of a Michigan fan.  My initial reaction to that hypothetical suggestion was vociferous disagreement, but after further consideration, I thought about the word from which ‘fan’ is abbreviated, and I realized that maybe being less fanatical about something so far beyond my control as MBB is not necessarily a bad thing.  So, if you’re one of those people who consider me less of a fan, or a fair-weather fan, or however you’d articulate it, then okay.  I guess that’s easy for me, a lifelong Walmart Wolverine, to say, and for everyone who actually has a personal connection to UM, I hope the pain isn’t too unbearable and fades quickly.  

The main point I got from Erik_in_Dayton’s diary was that expecting an easy win against anyone, no matter how lowly and downtrodden they may be, leads to satisfaction at best and anguish at worst, which seems to me a pretty badly skewed spectrum.  On paper, PSU didn’t have a chance.  But the game is played on hardwood, and the student-athletes of Penn State, despite a clear and significant talent disadvantage, played fearlessly and with complete confidence in their ability to win, even when it looked like the game was slipping away (at least I assume they did; I can’t imagine how else they overcame the talent gap).  From the perspective of UM students, alumni, and fans, the game was a disaster of epic proportions, but the other side has a different outlook (Captain Obvious is obvious).  For PSU players and supporters, Wednesday’s game was a triumph over adversity, a monumental breakthrough in a season of frustration, and a moment of well-deserved unadulterated joy*.  I don’t want to be the kind of fan who can’t appreciate that side of reality.  Leave that shit to Sparty, my couch remains at room temperature.  

Furthermore, if Michigan played the way they’ve been playing in the recent games I have actually watched (please correct me if I’m wrong here), they played as if having more talented players and building a 15-point 2nd-half lead entitled them to win.  I base the previous statement on the impression I’ve gotten from watching the last couple weeks’ worth of games, which is of players exuding the attitude, “We’re here, we’re obviously super-talented, what more could anyone expect from us?”  Sometimes the first half has served as a wake-up call, sometimes not.  And sdunfortunately for the team and their supporters Wednesday night, they found out the hard way that the only thing that entitles a victory is outscoring your opponent through 40 minutes of basketball.  

Despite Erik_in_Dayton’s wise warning, I also learned about the pitfalls associated with a sense of entitlement the hard way, because apparently it affects fans just as much as players, if not more so.  After checking the score and deciding not to watch PSU’s breakthrough victory (does that phrasing offend?  Should it offend anyone with a sense of perspective?), I checked the box score, and the first thing that jumped out at me was how many FTs Penn State attempted.  27 FTAs?!?  Refs must be related to Paterno!!!  Then I decided to stop being absurd.  Because seriously, is Michigan entitled to give their opponents no more than 15 FTA per game because That’s How They Play Defense, and if they give up more it must be referee bias?  Again, absurd. I occasionally (okay, often) forget this as an unabashed maize’n’blue fanboy, but the refs’ job is to call the game as it happens, not to ensure Michigan’s opp. FTA remains within the bounds of statistical normalcy.  Especially since, in this case, every postgame account I’ve seen indicates PSU legitimately earned all those trips to the line.  So instead of blaming an easy scapegoat when things don’t go well, I’d rather thank the officials for calling the game as fairly as they humanly could (unless anyone has evidence that they did otherwise), and give credit to the opponent for a game well played.

Despite the recent struggles, In Beilein I Trust.  And I hope his postgame message included something along the following lines: Talent means nothing without effort.  Effort means nothing without execution.  Execution means nothing without teamwork.  All of these things together still do not guarantee victory, and even victory means nothing without respect: for yourselves, for your teammates, for your opponents, and for the game.  

There’s still plenty of time for learning and growth before March Madness is upon us.  Even if we only get to the Sweet 16, or (blasphemy alert) lose in an early round, let’s not lose sight of the fact that this has been the best regular season of MBB that anyone born after 1985 can legitimately claim to remember.  They really are just kids; praise them when they do well, and encourage them when they fall short of our greedy expectations.

*I think this is especially true given what PSU and their fan base has been through recently.  Yeah, in large part they brought that on themselves, but on the other hand, I don’t think ‘they’ includes the kids who I have to believe were thrilled to receive basketball scholarships from PSU, and have worked just as hard as any other basketball scholarship recipients in the B1G.

“SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGHLY RATED PASSING OFFENSES IN THE BIG TEN: 2000-PRESENT”

In a companion diary to my last entry, I took a similar dive into the passing statistics of the Big Ten since 2000 to see what some of the characteristics of the highly rated passing offenses were. In an attempt to be a little more thoughtful as well, I also looked at the passing efficiency data, particularly since TD and INT percentages are part of the calculation of efficiency ratings. I like to believe that these two percentages really matter more than the average total yards in that they provide insight into what a team does with the yards they managed to accumulate. This is also the reason that the selection process for this exercise varies a little from the method employed when looking at rushing offenses.

Some high-level trivia:

• Since 2000, a Big Ten quarterback has thrown the ball to someone else 53,905 times, and on 31,128 of those occasions, someone caught it. That’s good for a 57.7% completion percentage and 381,792 total yards.
• When the ball was caught, teams averaged 12.27 yards per completion. When it was not, it was thrown an average of 7.08 yards.
• For all that passing, 2,640 touchdowns were produced, or an average of 1.5 passing TDs per game. There were also 1,646 interceptions thrown, or 0.93 INTs per game.
• The touchdown percentage of the Big Ten in that space was 4.06%. The interception percentage was 3.09%. Michigan fell slightly above the average in both cases, incidentally.
• The cumulative passer efficiency rating of the Big Ten in this timeframe is 127.59
• The average yards per game passing in this time turns out to be 216.69 yards
• The cumulative winning percentage of the conference? 0.562

So, once again, I laid all this out in an egregiously large spreadsheet and then put it aside to do some actual work at work. I came back to this later and decided to pay particular attention to four factors which are considered in the efficiency statistics. In this case, I thought it would be interesting to use the following – average yards per game, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and completion percentage.

As it turns out, there were only 27 passing attacks in the group which were above average in all four areas, but here is what those teams were typically capable of doing:

• Average completion percentage: 61.02%
• Average interception percentage: 2.22%
• Average touchdown percentage: 6.30%
• Average yards per game: 248.16
• Average passer rating: 142.65
• Average yards per attempt: 7.68
• Average yards per completion: 12.59

These are noticably better than the grand means in each category. Another interesting improvement is in total years for the season. For the entire sample, it was 2,669 yards, but for this statistically elite group, it was 3,102 yards. Further, the cumulative winning percentage of this group is 0.653, so having an efficient passing game gets perhaps one more win each year in the Big Ten.

I eased the restrictions a little for the next sort just to see if I could squeeze out a list of the best of the best, if you will. For the next step, I took teams from the smaller sample that were above average in at least two of the four statistics and managed to get a group of 13 teams. Their means are:

• Average completion percentage: 62.40%
• Average interception percentage: 1.97%
• Average touchdown percentage: 6.65%
• Average yards per game: 262.17
• Average passer rating: 148.89
• Average yards per attempt: 8.00
• Average yards per completion: 12.82

Those teams that made the final cut under these assumptions are:

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

Like the rushing version of this from earlier in the week, the point of this was to simply run through a short exercise on finding a potential way to discover from a large set of data which teams stood out among their peers in the conference in a specific set of statistics. I chose to go with statistics that I thought pointed towards an efficient passing attack, not necessarily the most prolific, although the two do in fact overlap somewhat. There are probably better ways to think through this, but I was working with easily available data.

It is also rather intriguing that, at least under my own assumptions in doing these two diaries, having an efficient passing attack and an effective rushing game produce the same typical bump in winning percentage, at least when looked at separately like this.

RANDOM ENTERTAINMENT:

Because I was missing "Animalympics" earlier...

THE LIGHTS HAVE GONE OUT

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

If it hurts, it's only because I want you to start hating Bump more.

But go ahead, neg away.  Especially if it makes you feel better.

Apologies for the not-so-ambitious execution here.  For those of you following along in the depths of Twittervania, we had a little emergency around here yesterday.  Everything's cool (thanks for the concern and well wishes), but it's a miracle I put anything up.  Promise more art-like stuff next week.

Friday Fun will take a look at recruiting tomorrow... don't miss it.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Wednesday here at MGoBlog and on its official home page.  Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

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Sitting at my desk and waiting for the next “Hello” post to arrive, I have been studying the recruiting success we've had since Hoke & Co's arrival and trying to figure out how excited I should be about 2013 and beyond. The goal, obviously, is to build a program that is competing for B1G and National Championships every year. But how good does our recruiting have to be in order to accomplish that?

In Part I, I took a look at how the dark lord himself managed to put together one of the most dominant runs in college football history.  Nick Saban's Alabama teams are loaded with blue chip recruits, but he also oversigns every year. To him, a scholarship is really just an offer to try out for the Crimson Tide, and kids that aren't cutting it are sent packing for whatever reason Saban can use to justify booting them (his favorite is “violating team rules”). I hope Michigan never uses the oversigning methods of the SEC, but we will have to find players that make a similar impact if we're going to compete with those programs.

So what does it mean to have a roster that can compete with Alabama? CHART!

These charts represent Saban's '07-'09 classes, with the bars representing the IMPACT rating. Like Hoke, Saban's first class was composed almost entirely of his predecessor's recruits. And, like Hoke, Saban's next two classes were relatively large and represented a significant improvement over his first class.

For the time period, the average Saban recruit was a 5.78 Rivals Rating. This is roughly equivalent to a low four-star recruit. And as the chart shows, the rankings do matter. Referring back to Part I, this chart compares the impact of recruits with their Rivals Rating. Briefly, a high impact is better; a “1” is a player that did not contribute during his career at 'Bama, a “2” is a minor contirbutor or role player, and a “3” is a solid starter or better. Perhaps the most important thing about the rankings is that there is a clear trend that the higher you are ranked, the less likely it is that you will end-up a non-factor (IMPACT of 1). On a percentage basis, the 5.8 players actually out-performed the 5.9 and 6.0 players, but the general trend is that the more highly-rated players are more likely to contribute.

It helps Saban that the sample size of 5.6 or lower recruits is very small. His roster is composed, almost exclusively, of very highly-rated three-star or better recruits (5.7 or better). His reputation for finding diamonds in the rough—as far as I can tell—is complete myth. His highly-rated prospects produce; his lower-rated prospects (the few that even stay in Tuscaloosa) generally do not contribute.

So how does this compare to Michigan? Chart? Chart!

Michigan's 2011 class numbered 20 recruits. I would expect that classes will average 20-24 recruits under Hoke (mean of 22). This accounts for attrition, and basically divides the team into five classes: RS Freshmen, Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors, and Seniors. Saban, working with the same number of scholarships, averaged 27.7 recruits in his first three classes, and has averaged exactly 25 commitments per class since then. That means he's getting three extra chances at a good player every year. This is a big difference, but not insurmountable.

The 2011 Michigan class was damaged by transfers, but nothing like Saban's 2007 group. Ten (!) players from Saban's first class did not finish their careers at 'Bama. Hoke, so far, has lost six of his first class to transfers, and it appears unlikely he'll lose any more: of the remaining 14 players, 11 have played and two are front-runners for starting positions on the 2013 O-line (Jack Miller and Chris Bryant). That leaves only Antonio Poole, who was a 5.7 (highest 3-star) on Rivals and a 4-star on Scout. With Michigan loaded at LB, Poole may end-up transferring due to a lack of playing time—there's about a 50-50 chance of him contributing in some way during his career.

The 2011 Michigan class' average Rivals Rating was 5.62. Take out the kicker (Wile) and the average jumps to 5.64 ('Bama did not recruit a kicker in '07). This is a clear disadvantage compared to 'Bama's 5.70 average.

But the real bottom line is production. Saban turned 9 members of that class into contributing players, and four of those were all-stars. Will Michigan find similar success? I actually think we'll do better on average, if not at the top. Here are the guys and their projected IMPACT at the end of their careers:

• Blake Countess - 3
• Ramon Taylor - 3
• Desmond Morgan - 3
• Keith Heitzman - 3
• Brennen Beyer - 2
• Frank Clark - 2
• Thomas Rawls - 2
• Justice Hayes - 2
• Chris Bryant - 2
• Jack Miller - 2
• Delonte Hollowell - 1
• Antonio Poole - 1
• Russell Bellomy - 1
• Matt Wile - 3

That's 10 productive players (11 counting the kicker), four of whom I believe have a good chance of being drafted. I also believe my grading has been pretty harsh—several of those 2's could be 3's, and only one of the 3's (Heitzman) is a guy who hasn't fully proven himself. Bryant, Miller, and Beyer seem the most likely to become 3's, but Rawls, Hayes, and Clark all have game experience and are certainly not out of the running. That said, RB's usually show something early in their career if they will have an impact later in their career. 2013 is likely their last chance.

The final verdict is that this class appears poised to produce a lighter top than 'Bama's 2007 group, but a thicker middle. The group will probably be more productive on paper, but lacks the All-American types. On to class #2...

Saban's second class was epic in terms of quality and quantity—like the extended version of Return of the King—loading-up 32 recruits with an average Rivals Rating of 5.81. Hoke's second class follows the trend of his first, with 25 commitments averaging 5.75—the same difference in average rating as their first classes. 15 'Bama players from the 2008 class were contributors, and ten earned an IMPACT value of 3. All ten of those guys are in the NFL or headed there. Seven more players from Saban's group busted at 'Bama, and the rest were sent out to pasture. Will Hoke's first full class produce ten NFL-bound starters and five role players? This group requires a bit more explaining:

• Joe Bolden - 3 – Already demonstrated ability to play at high level
• Dennis Norfleet - 3 – Value in return game will skyrocket, but will he play much otherwise?
• James Ross - 3 – Either Ross or Bolden will probably be a 3-year starter...maybe both
• Devin Funchess - 3 – Best receiving TE talent at UM in recent memory
• Mario Ojemudia - 3 – Showed flashes in 2012, IMO will pass Beyer and Clark on depth chart
• Ondre Pipkins - 3 – Highly-touted recruit has controlled his weight and should start in 2013
• Kyle Kalis - 3 – Beast projected to be a four-year starter
• Erik Magnuson - 3 – Giving the highest-rated lineman the best chance to end-up a multi-year starter
• Amara Darboh - 3 – Burned redshirt because of physical talent; either he or Chesson will likely start multiple seasons
• Jarrod Wilson - 3 – Starting in 2013? Maybe, but almost certainly starting in 2014 and beyond
• Blake Bars - 2 – One more lineman from this class will have to contribute
• Royce Jenkins-Stone - 2 – RJS is a solid four-star whose biggest challenge is the loaded LB depth chart
• Terry Richardson - 2 – 50/50 on whether or not this 5.8 recruit pans out
• Tom Strobel - 2 – The 2012 class will need at least one more contributor on the D-line; Strobel and Wormley seem like the best candidantes
• AJ Williams - 2 – Will probably spend career as a blocker
• Ben Braden - 2 – Which BB will contribute? Ben Braden or Blake Bars?
• Sione Houma - 2 – Likely a blocking FB who now must compete with Shallman.
• Christopher Wormley - 2 – Massive recruit who may have helped this year if not for injury
• Jehu Chesson - 2 – System change gives Chesson and Darboh the opportunity to play early
• Jeremy Clark - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's
• Matthew Godin - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's
• Allen Gant - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's
• Willie Henry - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's
• Drake Johnson - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's
• Kaleb Ringer - 1 – Not all recruits will pan out; lowest-rated guys being given 1's

That's ten 3's—the same number as 'Bama—and I believe all could be successful playing on Sundays. As for the 2's, AJ Williams and Terry Richardson seem like locks to be multi-year contributors if not starters, and the rest will probably end-up splitting 50/50. That means four or five will wind-up helping the team and the rest—along with the 1's—will probably not offer much.

It's VERY important to me that no one takes this the wrong way. I am not, in any way, predicting that specific kids will end-up as busts. I use the names only because it makes the numbers real, but the truth is that my predictions are based on limited evidence and my statistical analysis. I sincerely apologize to any player or person who is offended by these projections; again, it is not personal, just my best attempt to predict recruiting success at Michigan.

The bottom line for this class is, IMO, very good. I believe that, compared to 'Bama's '08 class, we'll get similar numbers in terms of quality contributors and role players, despite having seven fewer recruits. But will this group have star power to compare with the likes of Julio Jones, Mark Barron, and Mark Ingram? I don't see a Heisman winner on this list, but Ross, Bolden, Funchess, Kalis, and Pipkins all have a very good chance at being All-B1G and first-half NFL draft choices, IMO. Time will tell if they compare to 'Bama, but the numbers are kind. The average Rivals Rating of 'Bama's ten players who earned a 3 is 5.82; Michigan's average of the players I have projected to be 3's is 5.85. Hoke's first haul lacks stars at the skill positions like Julio Jones and Mark Ingram, but it may be just as productive and yield early draft choices on the lines and at LB.

The 2013 class is, by far, the most difficult to project. Obvious is obvious—these guys have not yet seen the field as college players and all of my predictions will be based on pure speculation. But how does Hoke's third effort compare to Saban's 2009 class?

To review, Saban's '09 class was another big one—27 recruits following the 33 from '08—and was chock full of talent, producing an average Rivals Rating of 5.83 with four 5-star (6.1) players. The class delivered in a big way, with all of those 5-star players earning 3's, and three of them becoming absolute studs. Six more players from Saban's third class earned 3's (for a total of ten) and the class had all-stars Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, AJ McCarron, DJ Fluker, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Chance Warmack. Three more players earned 2's, giving the class 13 total contributors. Those 13 players had an average Rivals Rating of 5.9—a top 150 recruit.

Michigan's 2013 class also had 27 recruits. The average Rivals Rating for Team 134 commitments is 5.79—just .04 below 'Bama's third class. Take out of long-snapper ('Bama had no specialists in its '09 class) and the average jumps to 5.81—a ridiculously good average that is basically equivalent to a low 4-star recruit. Will Michigan's class produce ten players who earn 3 IMPACT ratings and a handful more of 2's? I believe so. Will Michigan's class produce star power similar 'Bama's '09 group? I doubt it. Saban reeled-in four 5-star (6.1) recruits, one 6.0, and seven 5.9's. Michigan had just one 6.1, but did have three 6.0's to go with six 5.9's. That means Saban's class had two more blue chip recruits, which is a significant statistical advantage in that it probably means one more all-star or high impact player. But from a total team perspective, the difference is smaller. Michigan's group should still produce a similar number of 2's and 3's on the IMPACT scale. Here is my ridiculously uninformed, way-too-early, obnoxiously long, and somewhat offensive projection for each Michigan recruit:

• Derrick Green - 3 – Seems like a perfect fit for the system and the depth chart is shallow at RB
• Henry Poggi - 3 – Worst-case scenario (if healthy), Poggi is Ryan Van Bergen
• Patrick Kugler - 3 – Son-of-a-coach at a position where 2013's projected starter is a converted D-lineman
• Shane Morris - 3 – Shane or Wilton Speight is likely to be a multi-year starter; could be #2 in 2013
• Dymonte Thomas - 3 – If it's possible to a sleeper as a 5.9 recruit, he is; already enrolled
• Mike McCray - 3 – Could follow Jake Ryan as the next great Michigan SAM
• Kyle Bosch - 3 – Nasty man with college size and an early enrollee
• Chris Fox - 3 – We are still a bit short OT's after 2013; likely multi-year starter
• Jake Butt - 3 – Early enrollee will almost ceratinly play significant minutes in 2013
• Taco Charlton - 3 – Will Taco be the best pure pass-rusher on the 2013 team? Already enrolled.
• Jourdan Lewis - 2 – Not tall; great athlete but IMO a 50/50 shot at becoming starter
• Ross Douglas - 2 – Another 50/50 player; he or Lewis probably pans out; already enrolled
• Delano Hill - 2 – Safety is actually becoming a pretty loaded position; Hill has a 50/50 shot
• Ben Gedeon - 2 – Like this kid's character, so he's a 3 in my heart, but LB is loaded
• David Dawson - 2 – Great prospect, but our O-line is suddenly loaded on the interior
• Logan Tuley-Tillman - 2 – Massive man who will benefit from his early enrollment
• Wyatt Shallman - 2 – Probably destined for FB or DT; will probably be a great role player
• Maurice Hurst Jr. - 2 – I believe this kid is a sleeper
• Deveon Smith - 2 – More suited to Michigan's style than current backs
• Jaron Dukes - 2 – Conspicuously good production in HS against good DB's
• Khalid Hill - 2 – TE is still a thin position for Michigan; Hill will have a chance to contribute
• Da'Mario Jones - 2 – Only the recruiting services thought this kid was a 3-star
• Scott Sypniewski - 1 – Long snappers are long snappers
• Csont'e York - 1 – They can't all work out; just trying to make the numbers accurate
• Reon Dawson - 1 – They can't all work out; just trying to make the numbers accurate
• Dan Samuelson - 1 – They can't all work out; just trying to make the numbers accurate
• Channing Stribling - 1 – They can't all work out; just trying to make the numbers accurate

Of the twelve players that were projected as 2's, it's likely that about half will end-up as non-factors. The other half will be some combination of 2's and 3's, and a couple of the projected 3's will end-up as 2's or busts. That leaves this class with about ten 3's, five 2's, and twelve 1's. This is roughly equivalent to what 'Bama produced from their third class in terms of IMPACT.

Conclusions

Hoke's recruits from these first three classes will probably be more productive than Saban's because the Michigan roster was in much worse shape for two reasons: 'Bama's '06 class was loaded with talent while Michigan's 2010 group was a 3-star party; and Saban inherited a roster much more suited to his style than did Hoke. So while it may seem like my projections have been generous, I do believe Michigan will crank out 3's and 2's at a high rate from these first three classes, partly out of necessity. But the numbers indicate that these players will be highly productive, but not quite the all-stars that the Tide crank out year after year.

Michigan has some important statistical disadvantages. The first is pure numbers: Saban brought in 11 more commitments than Hoke did in his first three years. I believe this comparative weakness will be mostly—if not completely—overcome by the character of the Michigan commits. Not only does Saban dump players who are less talented, he also loses more guys to crime and grades than does Hoke, and my guess is that Hoke will probably have fewer pure busts. I do believe Hoke can overcome the roughly three player per class disadvantage. Overall, just looking at limited numbers, I would guess that the actual advantage is only about one extra player per recruiting cycle due to the Tide's willingness to take kids that are good at football but not so good at life.

The second difference is the talent of the recruits. Saban's first three classes hold a .05 average Rivals Rating advantage over Hoke's, and the chart above tells the story: Saban got more top level recruits in his first three classes. Notice the big differences in 5.9, 6.0, and 6.1 recruits. Saban had 29 commits fall into those categories—more than a third (35%) of his '07-'09 commitments. Hoke has had just 14, representing less than 1/5 (19%) of Michigan's signees. In fact, the only ratings in which Michigan picked-up more recruits than 'Bama are the 5.5 and 5.6 levels, which are low-to-mid 3-star types.

Michigan also has underwhelming talent and/or depth at a couple of positions where the Tide is loaded: RB and WR. Treadwell chose the Ole Miss snake oil, leaving Michigan with only 3-star recruits at WR (though I believe two of those prospects were underrated) and 'Bama grabs 4-star WR's on a consistent basis. At RB, Michigan's 2013 class is excellent, but it will take another year or two of classes like that to have comparable talent to 'Bama.

D-Line is another spot where Michigan is still thin; the Heininger Certainty Principle helps here, but we'll still need pass-rushers. Saban recruits DE's to play OLB in his 3-4 scheme, so he uses different bodies in different ways, but he recruits DE/LB types very heavily, and 2-3 DT's every year as well. I expect Michigan to be recruiting 3-5 D-line prospects every year going forward

Saban tends to take lots of lower-rated OL recruits and still turns them into stars. His strategy seems to be to simply get five or six OL commits every year and turn a couple into All-SEC types while the rest land on the trash heap. Positionally, that seems to be the only real difference among Hoke and Saban's targets—Michigan's focus on the best possible O-line players and 'Bama's relative ignorance of that position in terms of Rivals Ratings.

The bottom line is that Saban signed more players and got better talent in his first three tries than did Hoke. That said, Hoke's focus on character mitigates those disadvantages by having fewer misses and getting more out of his players. But in order to build a juggernaut, we will probably need classes that are consistently as strong as our 2013 haul. And while Hoke's latest effort is on par with Saban's early classes, 'Bama has continued to improve the quality of their recruits: 2013 is Saban's best class yet.

The talent gap is still there, but it seems to be closing. Can character and coaching help build a national champion in Ann Arbor? Time will tell.

SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EFFECTIVE RUSHING OFFENSE IN THE BIG TEN: 2000-PRESENT

I would like to mention first that I am going for a slightly more conversational diary this week because even I grow weary of charts and graphs from time to time. That, and I have to make far too many for work this week as it is, so for fear of mixing managing and MGoBlogging, I’ll try to present my wanderings of the past week in my normal strange prose.

I started thinking a few days ago about what some of the best rushing offenses were in the Big Ten since 2000. Admittedly, I chose this as the cutoff because I’ve been to the NCAA site enough that I know this is where the convenient tables end and the screens which read more like old printouts begin. In any case, it’s enough data to come up with a few good cases of teams that had very menacing rushing offenses. It is important to note that I used only the 11 teams which have been in the Big Ten through the entire studied period because of another diary that you might see in the coming weeks (no offense to Nebraska).

So, I dumped 13 seasons of rushing data into Excel. In all that time, the Big Ten has amassed enough yards to actually make a round trip from the Earth to the Moon twice (using average orbital distance), with a little yardage to spare. (EDIT: I flubbed the math and unit conversion here - my fail). In numerical terms, that would be 299,397 yards. In those yards, the ball was handed to someone 69,988 times and that someone managed to get an average of 4.28 yards per carry. The many teams in this stretch averaged 169.63 yards per game (2,093 net yards on average) and generally sat towards the middle of the national rankings of rushing offenses. Those teams also averaged 21 rushing TDs per year.

Fun facts for the dinner table there, right? Well, next, I created another table of the teams that were above the grand mean in all of the following – net yards, yards per carry, yards per game and touchdowns – as I thought these would provide some insight just how much more productive some of the better rushing offenses were in that stretch.

As it turns out, 41 teams in that group qualify. They account for 113,193 yards (an average of 2,760 net yards), or 37% of the total for the 13 seasons, and 32% of the carries in that same stretch. These 41 teams actually averaged 5.00 yards per carry and 218.94 yards per game as well as 30 rushing TDs. Also interesting is this – the cumulative win percentage of the Big Ten in this period is 0.562, but among these 41 teams, it is 0.669. It could be said that being what would basically be the first quartile of rushing offenses, at least in the Big Ten, accounts for possibly 1-2 more wins in a season. It may even be the case that, if we drew out a football event tree, you might find that rushing performance cascades through the offensive performance in general.

At this point, I performed the same analysis with these 41 teams, taking only teams whose statistics were above the averages in all four categories. This pares the list down to 12 teams. These twelve teams account for 12.5% of the rushing yards amassed in this space, as well as nearly 10% of the carries. They average 5.4 yards per carry and 249.50 yards per game, as well as 3,118 net yards. The average TD number also jumped to 38 here, which is, well, 2-3 rushing TDs per game basically (again, average – we love averages here). Not surprisingly, most of them ranked in the top ten rushing offenses for their respective years.

Which twelve were at the top, you ask? They are, in no particular order, 2012 Ohio State, 2011 and 2010 Michigan, 2010-2012 Wisconsin, 2002 Penn State, 2000 Northwestern, 2003 and 2005 Minnesota and 2000 and 2001 Indiana. Something that I found interesting about this list, almost more than the numbers, was that only seven teams from the conferences are represented, and of those, three of them appeared more than once. If we look at the combined winning percentage of those teams, it actually falls to 0.680 compared to the previous grouping, but there are definitely apparent personnel-based explanations, if you will, now that you can see the years.

TL;DR CONCLUSION:

This was merely a short mental / statistical exercise in discovering the sorts of numbers that the most effective rushing offenses have put up over the last decade or so in the conference, as well as to explore – at a high level – the differences in being merely average in this capacity and very effective over that stretch. In a word, the differences seem to be substantial and the numbers definitely bear that out.