Diaries

It has already been three weeks of college football season and I have the self mutilation scars tallying every time I thought a game was lost or became frustrated with the Pitbull Dr. Pepper commercials. After spending an afternoon staring at my scars, I realized this habit must stop or else I will be sucking up all the good blood at the hospital for selfish reasons. This past weekend was supposed to be a “healing weekend.” It turned out to be just as frustrating as the past two.

The Eastern Michigan University football team has been compared to a punching bag or even an ugly mannequin used for those loners down in their basements to beat up on after losing their six hour quest of Dungeons and Dragons to install confidence for the next life wasting night full of pizza, funny dice, and no estrogen save in their man breasts from too much pizza and coddling at a young age.  I debated whether to even watch this game or to take natural medicine and travel fast as I could to the Medieval Festival in Holly to take in the wonderful colors, music, belly dancing, and a turkey leg the size of Mattison’s head. I decided that in order to keep a weekly diary going it would be in my best interest to stay and watch. I expected an avalanche of offense and a punishment of defense from the get go by our beloved Michigan Wolverines. I soon found myself trying to remember how to tie a slipknot and finding a tall enough place by halftime.

The offense started out anemic and the defense played as if they were on the winning side of the game Tag and trying not to get tagged back. For a while I thought this was some cruel hoax of a uniform swith in the locker rooms so that Mike Hart would be able to coach the Michigan Wolverines incognito. Eastern Michigan manhandled Michigan as their offense stampeded down the field on at least three straight occasions but only coming away with three points from the whole ordeal. Thank the all knowing Spaghetti Monster that this was an inept team that didn’t know how to handle momentum against quality opponents and made buffoons out of themselves on national television. If this were any BIG opponent, our ass would have been grass, and they would have turned it over to the authorities.  The Michigan offense was just as putrid as Gorgeous Borges still looks for an offensive strategy besides Denard Left, Denard Right, Denard Center, and Denard Please Fucking Save Us. He still hasn’t found it. MANBAWW FOOTBAWW. Sure Vincent Smith got over 100 yards on various attempts, but again, this is Eastern Michigan School of the Fighting Stuffed Animals. Denards’s throwing seemed to regress as he sailed passes to Tacopants and to Lloyd Brady tailgating outside the stadium.

At halftime I decided it was a bit hyperbolic to hang myself this early in the season. I should save that for Michigan State or Nebraska. I don’t want to waste my finale on a team that my old University President from Pennsylvania who wore plaid sports jackets stepped in for in the past to serve as Emergency President at Eastern. No way. Plaid sports jackets will not be the end of me. I knew Michigan would pull this out from the beginning, but the way in which they started the game was discouraging. Mattison and Gorgeous Borges better take note that an imitation Division III team pushed them around for one whole quarter.  

After halftime, Michigan had a fire lit under their ass and the lighter fluid to ignite it was the usual brand, Denard Robinson.  The defense also stepped up their game to begin to look respectable, but the rushing attack by the fighting EMU’s still plagued them. Denard galloped his way on his feet, which I am convinced are small unicorns blessed by the Pope. (How else would he always make the Irish look like chumps?) As the scoreboard raced higher for Michigan after unanswered touchdowns quicker than Tyrone Biggums  racing higher after stealing a car radio, I still felt a level of disappointment. If Michigan were an ice cream shop going head to head with Baskin-Robbins for the Internationally known Lactose Award for Variety, they would lose 37-1.

Last year Michigan leaned heavily on Denard until he docked in at the end of the season with more bumps, bruises, and injuries than Whitney Hill after a good night out with Bobby. Not only was Denard beat-up by the end of the season, everyone figured out the game plan of a hobbled legged QB trying desperately to save his team from losing and his coach from trying out for Glee.  The end result was a predictive offense with a defense that would have won Last Comic Standing and an embarrassing end to the season by being drubbed by Mississippi State 52-14.

The FEAR is afoot again. Whether it is Gorgeous Borges’ fault that he hasn’t tried to implement more offensive strategies using Denard’s threat to open up other plays besides a quick slant and a zone read, or because we are not there offensively with the talent up front and around someone like Denard can be debated until the cows come back to tsio’s many sororities. The defense has improved slightly, but is nowhere near a level accustomed to Michigan’s past or a level that can sustain a season in the Big Ten 2.0. The FEAR is creeping up my leg and beginning to look like a rabid warthog with pieces of kitten flesh dripping from its tusks. The game against Eastern Michigan may have been rewarding in it brought us another win and national ranking, but it also served as a curse in possible false hopes and a déjà vu that is beginning to resemble a Greek  tragedy rendition of Groundhog Day. Then again, I’ve been known to worry too much.

-Go Maize

Welcome to week 4, and the season has started taking shape. There's still a number of 0-fers going out there, including surprises like Boston College and Oregon State. Not as surprising is the fact that about half of the Sun Belt conference doesn't have a win yet. Lucky for them there's always conference play.

This week

This week we highlight three games. Is highlight the right term for this column? Maybe "Spotlight of Shame" is a better term. We start in the SEC with Georgia versus Ole Miss. Georgia is 1-2, but the two losses are to Boise State and South Carolina, while Ole Miss has losses to Vandy and BYU. Ole Miss is sporting offensive numbers near the 100's, so look for Coach Giggity's Rebels to take sole possession of the SEC - West basement. Sidenote: I love that the divisions are South Eastern Conference - East and South Eastern Conference - West. Maybe the Big East will use that naming scheme if they split into the Big East  - East and Big East - West. As a personal note, I will always cheer against any team named for or referencing the South in the Civil War.

Next we have San Jose State versus New Mexico State. Over the last three years, the two teams have combined for 10 wins. If there was ever an argument against regression to the mean, this is it. Or maybe their mean is just bad. Bear in mind that New Mexico State's win this season came against Minnesota, while NMSU is near the 100s in most offensive categories.

Finally, the big game this week is the Dan Hawkins Memorial Buyout Bowl, featuring Colorado and Ohio State. Oh how it does my heart good to be able to put OSU in here. First, this game is on ABC/ESPN, so the nation gets to watch. Second, Ohio eked out a win against Toledo in week 2. Third, they're coming of an impotent loss to Miami last week. Ohio's QB job is a pick-'em, and CU looked reasonably good last week against CSU and against Cal. I still can't cheer for CU after '94, but I will still happily wish for OSU to lose. So it's this:

against this:

Conference realignment: Of course you're so freakin' excited to see another post breaking it down. Luckily for you, I've lost interest in how it ends up and would rather look backwards at what has transpired. So WTF has happened?

In a nutshell: Professional reporters turn into self-proclaimed Nostradami. People that don't even like college football argue about whose conference has a better USNWR ranking. ND and Texas act like ND and Texas. Basically, everyone looks like dickheads. IT'S AWESOME.

A majority of the most exciting news has happened in the last few weeks so I put together a conversational timeline (or a one act play, I suppose) to help you follow along. Warning: some rough language

Texas A&M, deep in it's own basement, stews over the indignities it has suffered at the horns of their evil overlord, Texas. The Longhorn Network has recently proposed to add high school games to their schedule...

[ed-M: bump. always bump.]

Do we have any Pinnacle Studio 12 experts among us?  I seem to have lost the ability to have my titles display lower-case letters properly (compare this MPP to my previous ones).

Setup: EMU will run power right against Will Heininger (left DT).

Wha'hoppon: Roh stands up the TE on the edge but Heininger gets blown out of the hole, leaving three blockers coming out against three linebackers going in.  Roh's positioning against the TE forces the FB to 'finish him,' Hawthorne stands up to the pulling guard, and the RB dives into the pile, which poops him out six yards downfield.

Full YouTube page is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaJI_5GgNDc

Original PP is http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-emu-runnin-us-i

Previously: Tristan Nickelson, Laquon Treadwell, Taco Charlton

Tyrone (GA) Sandy Creek cornerback Shaquille (Shaq) Wiggins is a quickly-rising prospect in the class of 2013, earning ESPNU 150 Watch List and Future Top247 honors. He has a high interest in Michigan, and even had a visit planned for the Notre Dame game that unfortunately fell through, though as you'll see, that had no impact on his desire to come to Ann Arbor.

After an outstanding performance at the Sound Mind Sound Body camp this past summer, he earned a scholarship offer from the Wolverines ($, info in header) to go along with offers from Ohio State, Cincinnati, Ball State, Ohio, and Toledo. Wiggins has already taken visits to Auburn and Florida this season, and also has interest from Clemson, Georgia, Illinois, and Mississippi State, among others. I caught up to Wiggins on the phone after his practice today to talk about his recruitment:

ACE: First of all, you've got an offer from Michigan. Are they an early favorite in your recruitment, and what other teams are recruiting you right now?

SHAQ: There's a lot of schools, including Indiana, Miami, LSU, Notre Dame, Florida State, Tennessee, Oklahoma - there's a few I could name.

ACE: Do you have an early favorites list? Where does Michigan stand with those schools?

SHAQ: Once my other offers stop coming in, I'll probably end up making a top ten or a favorites list then. But yeah, Michigan is one of my favorite teams.

ACE: I know you tried to come up for the Notre Dame game and that didn't end up working out, but have you had a chance to watch the Wolverines at all this season?

SHAQ: Yes, I watched the Notre Dame game, and I liked the way they played defense. I'm 100% sure I'm coming to the game, I think it's November 26th, when they play Ohio State. [Ed-Ace: He nailed the date off the top of his head after a football practice. Impressive.]

ACE: Who have you been in contact with on the coaching staff at Michigan?

SHAQ: Coach Mallory.

ACE: Have you been talking to any of the recruits who are currently committed?

SHAQ: Yeah, I talk to T-Rich [Terry Richardson] now and then. He congratulated me on making the ESPN Watch List, the top 150 watch list. That's about the only Michigan recruit I've talked to.

ACE: Focusing on your high school season, your team is 3-0 right now. What are your stats so far, and what are your goals for this season?

SHAQ: Well I'm trying to get at least eight [more interceptions] so I can get 13 picks. Right now I have five picks this season after the third game.

ACE: I know it's early on in the process, but do you have any idea about a timeline for your recruitment?

SHAQ: I would probably want to commit to a school during my senior [season] so I can get the recruiting process over with.

ACE: For people who may not be familiar with your game, how would you describe how you play on the field?

SHAQ: I would say I'm quick, with good man coverage, and I'm very physical at the line.

ACE: Are there any areas where you're looking to improve right now to get ready for the next level?

SHAQ: Yes. My overall cornerback coverage and just my overall technique, staying with the receiver and turning my hips.

Ohio lost, Michigan won. Depending on your thoughts on Notre Dame and Michigan State, either the stars perfectly aligned, or a two-for-three weekend isn’t something to complain about. Michigan enters the AP Top 25 this week, moving to #22, slightly in front of USC and slightly behind Clemson in voting. The Wolverines need to be aware they are facing a dangerous Aztec team, with veteran QB Ryan Lindley and RB Ronnie Hillman. Fortunate for Michigan, Coach Hoke knows the San Diego State team, and, fortunate for the Michigan secondary, speedster WR Dominique Sandifer is lost for the season with a knee injury.

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at a sure-fire favorite and attempt to preview the Michigan game.

Recap:

Wins

@ Vanderbilt (3-0) +1.5 Mississippi (1-2). Result: Vanderbilt 30 Mississippi 7.

@ Temple (2-1) +7.5 Penn State (2-1). Result: Penn State 14 Temple 10 [Props to Picktown GoBlue].

@ Cincinnati -34.5 Akron. Result: Cincinnati 59 Akron 14.

Losses

@ Toledo (1-2) +19.5 Boise State (2-0). Result: Boise State 40 Toledo 15 [Props to mfan_in_ohio for correctly predicting Boise State would cover].

Colorado State (2-1) +7.5 Colorado (1-2). Result: Colorado 28 Colorado State 14 [Props to PurpleStuff for correctly predicting Colorado to cover].

Washington State (2-1) +5.5 @ San Diego State (3-0). Result: San Diego State 42 Washington State 24.

@ Michigan (3-0) -29.5 Eastern Michigan (2-1). Result: Michigan 31 Eastern Michigan 3 [Props to Number 7 on correctly predicting Michigan would not cover].

Poster Picks

Brightside correctly picked Duke (+8) at Boston College (Duke won 20-19). mfan_in_ohio correctly picked Miami (YTM) (-2.5) at home to Ohio (Miami won 24-6). M-Glow-Blue correctly picked Clemson (-3.5) to win at home to Auburn (Clemson won 38-24).

Number 7 had a pretty good week, correctly picking (1) USC (-17) at home to Syracuse (USC won 38-17); (2) Navy (+17) at South Carolina (South Carolina won 24-21); and (3) Clemson to win at home to Auburn.

This Week

I know the Watch is fired up to kick off college football this week with a trip to Daytona Beach for Hampton and Bethune-Cookman on Thursday night (7:30 PM EST/ESPNU).

Oklahoma State (#7) visits College Station and the 12^th Man for a showdown against Texas A&M (#8) (3:30 PM EST/ABC). Arkansas and Coach Bobby Petrino are looking for revenge as the Crimson Tide escaped with a victory last year; Arkansas (#14) visits Alabama (#3) (3:30 PM EST). Florida State (#11) looks to rebound (and get healthy) but must first get by Clemson (#21) (3:30 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3). Top tier games will conclude with LSU (#2) and the Hatter visiting Morgantown for a matchup with West Virginia (#16) (8:00 PM EST/ABC).

Upset Watch

Bowling Green (2-1) +6.0 @ Miami Ohio (0-2). Bowling Green has the 10^th ranked offense (45^th rushing, 10^th in passing) in the country, having beaten Idaho and Morgan State, but losing on a missed extra point to Wyoming. Miami has the 12^th ranked pass defense (54^th overall, 100^th rushing defense); should be an interesting matchup. Further, Miami’s offense is ranked 90^th (108^th rushing, 38^th passing); Bowling Green’s defense is ranked 25^th (30^th passing, 43^rd rushing). The home team is 1-5 in this series, since 2005, including three straight losses. Bowling Green had four losses by a touchdown or less last year; Miami had six wins by a touchdown or less last year (only Auburn had more). Stats say that Bowling Green should win more this year, and Miami win less. That trend should be proven with a Falcon victory in Oxford.

New Mexico State (1-2) +10.5 @ San Jose State (0-3).Can you believe the Aggies are 24^th in passing offense? It helps having a quality WR like Taveon Rogers (249 yards 17.8/catch and 4 TD). San Jose State Coach Mike MacIntyre is 1-15 overall, but 7-9 against the spread. New Mexico State Coach DeWayne Walker is 6-23, but 10-16-2 against the spread. New Mexico State has won on the spread the past two meeting, both of which were decided by three points or less. Taking out the lopsided 2007 game (SJSU won 51-17), the average margin of victory in the series is SJSU by 9. I think SJSU gets the win, but I like NMST to keep this one close.

Missouri (2-1) +21.5 @ Oklahoma (2-0). Oklahoma has won 7 of the last 9 in this series, dating back to 1998, with an average margin of 14 (23 if looking solely at the Oklahoma wins). Coach Gary Pinkel is 7-9 against the spread against ranked teams since 2006 (5-11 straight up), having beaten (and covered as a dog) last against Oklahoma (36-27). Coach Bob Stoops is 13-11-1 against the spread against ranked teams since 2006 (18-7 straight up), but only 3-4 against the spread when playing a second ranked team back-to-back. Oklahoma has the 44^th ranked defense (20^th rushing, 87^th passing); Missouri the 16^th ranked defense (11^th rushing, 54^th passing). Oklahoma the 19^th ranked offense (44^th rushing, 20^th passing); Missouri the 12^th ranked offense (10^th rushing, 40^th passing). The matchup of Missouri’s pass defense and Oklahoma’s pass offense concerns me a bit, but I think Missouri should keep this within 3 TDs.

Southern Miss (2-1) +3.0 @ Virginia (2-1).Virginia and Southern Miss last met in 2009, with Southern Miss winning 37-34, but failing to cover the 14-point spread. Virginia Coach Mike London is 3-2-1 as a favorite against the spread, and 6-8-1 overall against the spread. Southern Miss Coach Larry Fedora is 15-13 as an underdog against the spread, and 20-18-1 overall against the spread. This is an improved Virginia (38^th rushing offense, 45^th passing) team with solid RBs in Perry Jones (173 yards 4.1/carry and 1 TD) and Kevin Parks (249 yards 6.1/carry and 5 TD). Michael Rocco (652 yards 61.1% completion, but 4 INT to 1 TD) will need to improve his play at QB before the Cavaliers have a truly balanced offense. Southern Miss is 14^th against the run. Take the Golden Eagles to cover and win.

@ Pittsburgh (2-1) +7.0 Notre Dame (1-2).The Watch stayed away from the Notre Dame/Michigan State game last week, with good reason. The Irish bring in the 36^th offense (27^th passing, 61^st rushing); the Panthers bring the 61^st offense (52^nd passing, 52^nd rushing). Neither defense is much to write home about, as the Pittsburgh defense is ranked 96^th (119^th passing, 23^rd rushing) and Notre Dame is ranked 58^th (97^th passing, 30^th rushing). Pittsburgh is transitioning to a spread offense under Todd Graham, from the previous pro-style offense under Dave Wannstedt. Notre Dame Coach Brian Kelly is 9-7 at Notre Dame (6-6-4 against the spread, 4-5-2 as a favorite against the spread). Coach Todd Graham is 0-3 against the spread at Pittsburgh (26-24-3 at Tulsa against the spread and 6-6-1 at Tulsa as an underdog against the spread). As long as Turnover Tommy Rees (5 INT, 2 Fumbles, 2 Fumbles lost) is addicted to turning the ball over for the Irish, opponents have a shot at winning. Irish should pick up their second win of the season, but Ray Graham (419 yards 5.3/carry and 6 TD), Devin Street (236 yards 15.7/catch and 1 TD), and Tino Sunseri (658 yards 62.5% completion and 3 TD, but 4 INT) should keep it closer than the 7-point spread.

Sure-fire Favorite

Army (1-2) -4.0 @ Ball State (2-1).Ball State’s record is deceiving, in that they have beaten two teams that very well could be ranked 100 or greater at the end of the season (Indiana, 27-20 and Buffalo 28-25). They also got smoked by South Florida, 37-7. Army has played a pretty representative scheduling, losing at Northern Illinois (49-26), a close one at home to San Diego State (23-20), and a surprise win against Northwestern (21-14). Ball State is ranked 95^th on defense (72^nd against the run, 104^th against the pass); Army is ranked 70^th on defense (92^nd against the run, 38^th against the pass). Ball State is ranked 91^st on offense (55^th rushing; 91^st passing) Army is ranked 55^th on offense (2^nd rushing; 120^th passing). Trent Steelman has attempted a mere 22 passes this year (roughly 7 per game). Look for him to attempt more than 7 passes against a poor pass defense. Where Army does their damage is on the ground, with QB Trent Steelman (302 yards 4.6/carry and 7 TD), SB Malcolm Brown (248 yards 9.9/carry and 1 TD), RB Raymond Maples (157 yards 4.9/carry), and FB Jared Hassin (115 yards 3.7/carry). Look for Army to cause big damage to Ball State in the run game and easily cover in Muncie.

Gameday Prediction

Rocky Long is 3-0 straight up at San Diego State (65-69 at New Mexico, from 1998-2008). Coach Long is 27-37 on the road, 6-14 against BCS teams, and 1-8 against the top 25. Since 2006, Coach Long is 21-18-2 against the spread and 10-9-1 as an underdog against the spread.

Brady Hoke is 50-50 straight up (13-12 at San Diego State, 34-38 at Ball State). Coach Hoke is 25-15-2 against the spread as a favorite and 40-23-2 overall since 2006.

San Diego State’s defense is ranked 80^th (36^th passing [186 yards/game], 98^th rushing [197 yards/game]). Michigan’s offense is ranked 62^nd (93^rd passing [177 yards/game], 19^th rushing [226.7 yards/game])

San Diego State’s offense is ranked 41^st (77^th passing [207.3 yards/game], 24^th rushing [220.7 yards/game]). Michigan’s defense is ranked 76^th (26^th passing [172 yards/game], 103^rd rushing [202.5 yards/game]).

San Diego State and Michigan have met once, with Michigan winning 24-21, but failing to cover the 20-point spread.

On paper, Michigan and San Diego State look awful similar, both having good run offenses and suspect run defenses. San Diego State was gashed by Army’s run offense (403 yards 5.3/carry and 3 TD), but had Ronnie Hillman bail them out (117 yards 6.9/carry and 2 TD). San Diego State did hold Washington State to just 51 yards on the ground (82 without sacks), for a 1.8/carry average, while Ronnie Hillman pounded it out on the ground again (191 yards 6.0/carry and 4 TD). Michigan gave up 198 yards on the ground to Notre Dame, for a 6.0/carry average and 1 TD; the Wolverines followed that up with another subpar performance giving up 207 on the ground to Eastern Michigan for a 4.5/carry average.

Assuming Michigan can get the passing game going and step up on defense against the run, they should cover. I’m going out on a limb, saying Denard should be able to spread the ball around more, topping 200 yards passing, but the Michigan run defense will again struggle against a good RB in Ronnie Hillman.

San Diego State +10.0 @ Michigan.

Michigan 31 San Diego State 28

Thoughts?