Diaries

Catholic Memorial High School in Massachusetts is the home to linebacker Camren Williams (6'2", 215 lbs) and his teammate athlete Armani Reeves (5'11", 185 lbs). The defensive pair are best friends and have both received an offer from Michigan. I'll have more from Armani on Monday, but I caught up with Camren to talk about Michigan and his recruitment overall. Here's some film from Camren at a U Conn camp, and you can see his full highlights here.

TOM: Your teammate Armani [Reeves] said you both were coming up on March 26th, is that date set?

CAMREN: Yeah, I think it's the 26th. It's either that or the 19th.

TOM: When it comes to your recruitment, with both you and Armani, I know you're really good friends but are you guys trying to pick the same school? Are you trying to be a package deal?

CAMREN: We're trying to be separate in our decision, because not all schools would be good for both of us. We're totally different kids with different majors and different positions. My favorite school might not be the best for Armani, and the other way around so we would like to, but it may not happen. 

TOM: Where are you at right now with the process? Do you have a top list yet?

CAMREN: It's really down to five schools, Michigan, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Penn State, and Maryland in no order.

TOM: Is that a final list, or could that change?

CAMREN: It may change, but I want to make my decision by June so those are probably the schools that I'll focus on here on out. Depending on maybe some other schools that offer, that's my top five.

TOM: With that being said, since you want to decide so soon where does Michigan stack up in that top list?

CAMREN: I really like Michigan. That's where my dad is originally from, and that's the school I've always been rooting for since I was born because my dad is such a huge fan. It's a great school with big time Big Ten football so I'm extremely interested.

TOM: With this upcoming visit to Michigan, I'm assuming that you're going to be trying to get to know the coaches better, but what else?

CAMREN: Yeah, I hope to do that on my visit. I talk to Coach Mallory sometimes, but other than that I haven't really talked to any other [Michigan] coaches. I want to go to a high academic school that fits my major well, with a position coach that I relate really well with, and a head coach with a good vision on where he wants to bring his program in the future. I also want a school with a big time program where I have the ability to play early.

TOM: Do you already know what you want to major in? With all that being said, do you think that Michigan has a good chance at landing you?

CAMREN: I want to major in kinesiology, and Michigan has a good chance. Academics are huge for me, which Michigan obviously has. They also play big time football and that's the school I've always watched growing up. It all depends on how I like the campus and the people and all that, but I'm definitely interested.

Okay, so, somebody is going to broach it eventually. I may as well be the one.

 vs. 

First of all, man does he look like his dad. Second of all, man, does he have the potential to be BETTER. Yes yes... taller. No, that's not what I mean. I mean better. Don't believe me? Lets look at the- CHART?

NO!

Dawwww...

Well, we have a table, that's almost a chart.

Harda-table

Season	Games	Minutes	FG%	3P%	FT%	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PPG
85-86	28	435	52.1	N/A	65.1	1.3	1.9	1	0.1	0.9	4.1
86-87	31	922	50.2	25	66.3	2	4.8	2	0.2	2.2	9.8
87-88	32	1036	46.8	34	75.4	2.9	5.7	2.3	0.3	2.4	12.4
88-89	33	1182	54.8	36.6	74.1	4	5.4	2.7	0.2	2.8	19.1
10-11	30	897	41.9	37.5	74.7	3.9	1.7	1.3	0.2	1	13.6

 

Those numbers represent four years of Tim Hardaway Sr. at UTEP and the season to date for Jr. at Michigan. Lets look at some comparison numbers. First off, minutes.

Right now, Tim Jr. is averaging 29.9 minutes per game, trending upward. Figure he ends up at about 30 even or slightly over. This falls in line with his father's Jr year, most closely, where he averaged 32 minutes. As such, I think it's prudent to use that as a baseline for comparing performance in a season.

You can easily see that as Sr.'s minutes and usage rose, Freshman to Jr season, his shooting percentage fell, hitting its lowest point in his Jr. year. This coincided with a rise in his overal points and PPG as he attempted many more shots per game.

Tim Jr. is shooting at an overall lower percentage than his father ever did, but is averaging more than a full PPG higher than his father did during his most similar usage year. This is because Jr. as a freshman, is shooting almost a full percentage point higher than his father ever did on threes, and is attempting many more of them. As of right now, if we see a similar leap in shooting ability aas his career progresses, and he ends up with a similar shooting percentage as a senior (not a given, due to his height, but possible), Jr.  could easily average over 20 PPG.

Dishing it out, Jr. understandably lags compared to his Father's performance in a similar minutes year. This is mostly due to his height (your tall guys aren't usually your ball handlers), and the fact that D-Mo is the floor captain. However, he is very, very close to his Father's freshman numbers, and even though his minutes are starter minutes, we should see his Assist ratio increase as he gains expeience. Relatedly, in TO ratio, Hardaway has his similar minutes father beaten by one per game, but again, as he dishes it more, he'll turn it over more.

Rebounding, I think, is no contest, Jr is going to have his father beat. As a Freshman, he's basically hit his father's Sr. mark in less minutes, and has eclipsed his father's similar minutes Jr. mark by 1 per game. Also on the defensive game, steals are a push right now.  He's well below his Father's similar minutes numbers, but has the freshman numbers beat, and should see them increase as he develops. His father might have the slight edge when all is said and done.

So, lets add it up with a- Table? Table.

Player	Overall Shoting	3 Point	Rebounding	Assists	Turn-Overs	Steals	PPG
Sr.	+			+		+
Jr.		+	+		+		+

Now, I'm not claiming that Jr. is a better player than his father yet. But I see four plusses for Jr and only three for Sr. Ask Freshman Sr. to play Freshman Jr.'s minutes, and I think the percentages go way down. Give Jr. four years of experience, some bigs to distribute it to inside, and a little more help, and look out.

Now all we need is for Jr. to develop one of these:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3mJsC-EjKo

A few weeks ago there was a post that talked about the myth of SEC speed, and the larger issue of player quality among the different US regions.  I don't know that I agreed with the article linked in that post, but it did bring up some interesting points.  When I reviewed the Rivals250 watch list for 2012 , I had this in mind and began analyzing player location.  Of course I didn't come up with anything other than very crude conclusions re. that particular issue, but I did find the exercise more generally informative about recruiting as a whole.  I'll present it here, with the understanding that many similar analyses have likely been completed in the past, and those much better in findings and scope. 

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2851

First up - where do they come from?  Well, that's Texas, Florida, and California, and you knew that.  The top 15 states in terms of the most R250 players:

#	State
35	TX
33	FL
31	CA
15	GA
14	OH
10	LA
9	MD
8	PA
8	NC
8	AL
7	AZ
7	NJ
7	IL
6	MI
6	WA

• TX, FL, CA, GA, and LA together hold nearly half of the preliminary 250, with 124 athletes
• The Top 15 states, which you'll notice includes MI, hold 82% of the R250
• There are 34 states represented by the R250, and 19 of them have 5 or fewer players
• 16 states are not represented at all.  Many of those are smaller states or Alaska, but some surprises: Kansas, West Virginia, Connecticut, and our new B1G member Nebraska have no players in the R250
• Iowa, Oregon, and Wisconsin each have 1 player
• Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (home of ND, Purdue, and IU) have 2 players
• New York also has only 2 players - it's hardly the empire state for football, despite having an enormous population.  There are probably answers to those player quality questions here, which likely involve player development and the popularity of football in the area.  But this is just speculation.

In terms of which conference the players belong to, I made some crude assumptions: players play at home, and states are split according to popular custom.  Re. the latter, the example would be MI and OH are 100% B1G states, but PA is 2/3 B1G and 1/3 BEAST (for Penn State and Pitt respectively).  FLA is 2/3 ACC and 1/3 SEC, to recognize MYTM, FSU, and UF.  Yes it's simplistic.  It's also hard to do it any other way. 

Conference
SEC	57
PAC10	50
ACC	47
B1G	38
B12	28
BEAST	12
OTHER	18
	250
*B1G = 15% of total

So yes the SEC RULZ.  They get there by taking 1/3 of FLA (11 players), and all of GA (15), LA (10), and AL (8).  The PAC10 comes in second by virture of CA, AZ, and WA.  ACC is third?  That's what 2/3 of FLA, plus MD (and their 4 OLGC players) and NC will get you.  B1G is fourth, more in a bit.  B12 is fifth, made up almost entirely of 2/3 of TX (the other 1/3 went to OTHER), plus 3 kids from MO and 2 from OK.  The B12 is Texas in every way it can be anything.  BEAST is hopeless, but that's a pretty good abbreviation eh? 
The B1G is made up of OH, PA, IL, and MI.  Michigan isn't in a terrible position, but with B1G regions making up just 15% of the total, needs to be in FL, TX, and CA to be a national power.  ND has nothing in IN and does just fine.  

What about the position breadowns? 

Position
QBs	22
RBs	22
WRs	36
TEs	7
OL	39
DTs	20
DEs	31
LBs	23
DBs	23
ATH	27
	250

Not sure how this compares to previous years, but the good news is that there are 39 OL and 36 WRs - two positions of need next year.  DEs are also very deep - OH has six alone (and that doesn't include Pharaoh Brown or Odenigbo).  But also very few DTs or TEs.  MI has only one of either, and unfortunately O'Brien looks to be vexed by the orange sun and questionable head coaching strategies of UT.  OH has neither a DT nor TE, and only one each of LB, OL, and DB.  We'd like to keep all of the MI guys who represent, yo:

Kelby Latta	OL	Battle Creek, MIHarper Creek
Danny O'Brien	DT	Flint, MIPowers Catholic
Royce Jenkins-Stone	LB	Detroit, MICass Tech
James Ross	LB	Orchard Lake, MISt. Mary's
Efe Scott-Emuakpor	WR	East Lansing, MIEast Lansing
Terry Richardson	DB	Detroit, MICass Tech

 Generalities:

Height			Weight
6'9"	2		300+	17
6'8"	2		290s	10
6'7"	8		280s	12
6'6"	16		270s	12
6'5"	24		260s	9
6'4"	35		250s	11
6'3"	34		240s	6
6'2"	49		230s	10
6'1"	24		220s	19
6'0"	22		210s	16
5'11"	15		200s	21
5'10"	9		190s	33
5'9"	6		180s	37
5'8"	3		170s	22
5'7"	1		160s	12
	250		150s	3
*216>6'0" (86%)				250
			*128 <200s (51%)

• 86% of the R250 are 6'0" or taller - marry a big girl
• 51% of the R250 are in the 200s or lighter, surprisingly - it's OK to marry a thin girl
• Want a 300+ pounder?  There are only 17 in the country right now (though they may grow over the year): 11 OL and 6 DTs - not enough of you are marrying big enough girls

No grand conclusions, but some interesting info.  I haz spreadsheet, so questions are welcome.  The data at Rivals is easy to copy and paste into Excel.  I'll probably update this when it changes from watch list to the actual R250.  Go Blue and that is all

Big Ten Tournament kicks off Saturday and goes through Sunday where the finals will air on the BTN at 4pm. 

 

To start, let me say the strength of a tournament is singling out the top teams and finding a champion.  Slotting the remaining teams into where they belong is where its weakness is to me.  It will be interesting to see how the Iowa Penn State battle will play out as I see them as the favorites to win it and they may be separated by a very slim margin.  Minnesota isn’t far behind if both seem to falter.  From there your looking at 3 teams fighting for 4^th-6^th in Wisconsin, Michigan and Northwestern.  Illinois, Indiana and Purdue look to have solid showings.  Ohio State and Michigan State will be the bottom dwellers.  If you’d like to see a very pro-Iowa outlook, check here. 

 

Here’s a weight by weight break down of the tournament:

 

125

 

Bracket Outlook:  This weight is setting up for a McDonough(Iowa) Precin(NW) final.  The only thing coming close to making this not happen may be the semi-final with Precin and Sanders(Minn), but, I still don’t see that happening.  After Sanders there is a bit of a drop-off to Pataky(PSU) and Boyle(UM).  Pataky, a senior, spent some time injured having returned just a few weeks ago.  He split two matches with Boyle, winning the latter.  Another drop-off from there as about 4 guys will have a legitimate fight for the final 3 spots. Top 5 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.

 

Favorite to win: Matt McDonough(Iowa)

 

Top contenders: Brandon Precin(NW), Zach Sanders(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: With the 5^th seed, Boyle is already in the quarterfinals in probably his biggest match against Pataky(PSU).  Winning that match sets up the best path for him to place high.  Losing that quarterfinal would drop him on the side of the consolation bracket that would run into the Sanders(Minn) Precin(NW) loser before the 3^rd place match.  Both I consider a lose for Boyle.  I’m not optimistic he gets into the semi’s and see him winning one match in the consolations before getting slotted into the 5^th place match, where he would be the favorite.  That would get him his NCAA bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. McDonough(Iowa)
2. Precin(NW)
3. Sanders(Minn)
4. Pataky(PSU)
5. Boyle(UM)
6. Brooks(IU)
7. Eppert(PUR)
8. Kelliher(UW)

 

133

 

Bracket Outlook:  Loaded weight for the B1G.  Semi’s will provide just as much entertainment as the finals with 4 guys I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won it all.  Long(PSU) has in my mind been wrestling the best down the stretch.  A bit of a surprise he got the #1 seed though.  Graff(UW) had been the favorite until his loss to Long.  Ramos(Iowa) went undefeated in B1G duals, with beating Long and no wrestling Graff.  Long will have to get past a surging Futrell(ILL) who should get to the semi’s but has the toughest quarterfinal with Mele(NW).  Graff and Ramos are the other semi.  Those 4 will figure out the top places.  I don’t see anyone beating Mele for 5^th.  8 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.  So if all the seeded wrestlers (Thorn(Minn), Stevens(UM), Paddock(OSU)) wrestle to expectations, they’re all in.  Paddock may be the most in risk.

 

Favorite to win: Long(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Ramos(Iowa), Graff(UW), Futrell(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: A 7 seed for Stevens will see him have to get a first round win to make sure he places.  After that he’ll run into Graff(UW).  From there he’ll run into a very important match in the consolations with Thorn(Minn).  Thorn won this matchup earlier in a dual 11-7.  Winning that match guarantees a 5^th place match where he wouldn’t be the favorite against Mele(NW) but would do no worse then 6^th.  With 8 qualifiers he shouldn’t have a problem there. Probable Target range: 5^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1.      Long(PSU)

2.      Graff(UW)

3.      Ramos(Iowa)

4.      Futrell(ILL)

5.      Mele(NW)

6.      Stevens(UM)

7.      Thorn(Minn)

8.      Paddock(OSU)

 

141

 

Bracket Outlook:  The premier weight for the B1G.  The winner here might very well be the tournaments outstanding wrestler.  The top 4 seeds are the top 4 ranked wrestlers in the nation and the 5^th seed is ranked 7^th.  Russell(UM) has beat them all this year, but, they have been close matches.  Kennedy(ILL) spent some time injured.  Another weight were the semi’s will be just as entertaining with Russell and Kennedy (pending Kennedy beats 7^th ranked Alton(PSU) in the quarters) and Marion(Iowa) Thorn(Minn).  Hard to pick against Russell since he’s been winning them all.  Since Marion’s return, I don’t think there has been a better contender for that #1 spot.  I see a clash of them in the finals.  Thorn and Kennedy will be a good 3^rd place match.  Alton and Friedley(NW) should manage to get the last of the 6 automatic bids.

 

Favorite to win: Russell(UM)

 

Top Contenders: Thorn(Minn), Marion(Iowa), Kennedy(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Russell is the 1 seed and favorite to win.  Won’t be easy though.  He’ll have 4^th ranked Kennedy in the semi’s and the winner of 2^nd ranked Marion or 3^rd ranked Thorn.  He’s beat them all, but, Marion had the best shot at knocking him off this year. Probable Target range: 1^st-4^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Russell(UM)
2. Marion(Iowa)
3. Thorn(Minn)
4. Kennedy(ILL)
5. Alton(PSU)
6. Friedley(NW)
7. Fleckenstein(PUR)
8. McQuade(UW)

 

149

 

Bracket Outlook:  Here is a weight with a clear front-runner, a good guess at his finals opponent and then a lot of questions.  Molinaro(PSU) and Nadhir(NW) seem like the most likely to find the finals with Molinaro to win.  Schmitt(UW) is the biggest question mark.  Had a high ranking before being injured earlier in the year and since returning has been unimpressive.  Terrazas(ILL) and Kinser(IU) have had solid years.  Grajales(UM) has been extremely inconsistent notching some impressive wins with head scratching losses.  In the B1G tourney there is less surprises unlike the NCAA’s.  With 8 bids, the seeded guys should all manage.

 

Favorite to win: Molinaro(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Nadhir(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Grajales has a 6 seed needing to get into the quarters to make sure to place.  From there I don’t see a certain unless he got to the finals against Molinaro(PSU), but, a more then likely loss in the semis against Nadhir(NW) or in the quarters against Kinser(IU).  Grajales has the potential to do damage, but, Im not extremely confident in him.  Lots of tough matches and being a bit undersized and young, makes for a tough go.  I think Kinser nips him in the quarters leaving him to beat Osterman(MSU) again to solidify the 5^th place match and getting there after losing to Terrazas(ILL).  Could find the question mark Schmitt(UW) here for 5^th.  With 8 bids, I think he’s safe to get that.  Probable Target Range: 2^nd-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Molinaro(PSU
2. Nadhir(NW)
3. Terrazas(ILL)
4. Kinser(IU)
5. Grajales(UM)
6. Schmitt(UW)
7. Osterman(MSU)
8. Zilverburg(Minn)

 

157

 

Bracket Outlook:  Taylor(PSU) has been impressive here all year, beating everyone decisively.  St.John(Iowa) will have a good semi with Welch(NW) that I see St.John winning.  That semi will be better then the final.  I don’t see anyone else that could get Welch after that.  Salazar(PUR) and Young(IU) will be the two most likely to get that 3^rd place match with Welch.  The biggest match for a bid might be in the consolations between Zeerip(UM) and McMurray(MSU).  Winner there clinches a bid.

 

Favorite to win: Taylor(PSU)

 

Top contenders: St. John(Iowa), Welch(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip is a curious case.  He got the nod over McMurray(MSU) for the 6 seed even though he just lost to him 8-2.  He has the ability to compete with anyone after the top contenders.  He’ll have Welch early in the quarters sending him to the consolations.  There he’ll draw that crucial bout with McMurray.  He wins there and he could fight his way to the 3^rd place match.  A loss and no auto-bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Taylor(PSU)
2. St. John(Iowa)
3. Welch(NW)
4. Salazar(PUR)
5. Young(IU)
6. McMurray(MSU)
7. Zeerip(UM)
8. Mincey(Minn)

 

165

 

Bracket Outlook:  Big wrench was thrown in here when Howe(UW) said he was coming back.  He suffered a major knee injury early in the season and this tournament will be his first action since.  He is a 2 time B1G champ and returning National champ.  But, if there was a weight more wide open to walk in and win after an injury, this might be it.  Not to say it doesn’t have it share of solid wrestlers though.  How healthy and how far Howe can go is the biggest wildcard.  Sponseller(OSU) was the favorite before the return.  Yohn(Minn) and Janssen(Iowa) recently had a tight 6-4 match that Yohn came out ahead on.  They’ll push Howe and Sponseller before most likely ending up fighting for 3^rd.  Yates(UM) and Polz(ILL) will probably find themselves in a very important match for 5^th considering there is only 5 bids available here.

 

Favorite to win: Howe(UW)

 

Top contenders: Sponseller(OSU), Janssen(IA), Yohn(MN)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Yates got a 6 seed and will run into Yohn(Minn) who has beat him earlier.  He’ll drop to the consolations and find LaBlanc(IU) most likely.  He’ll need that to guarantee a 5^th place match and unless he beats the Janssen(Iowa) Howe(UW) loser, that’s where he’ll be.  Probably have Polz(ILL) there in that critical battle for the last bid.  Probable Target Range: 5^th-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Howe(UW)
2. Sponseller(OSU)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Janssen(Iowa)
5. Polz(ILL)
6. Yates(UM)
7. LaBlanc(IU)
8. Bialka(NW)

 

174

 

Bracket Outlook:  Fr. Ruth(PSU) is primed to win here, but, it’s a tight battle for who the next best is.  Glasser(Minn) has a tough road, but, might be that guy.  He’ll have to avenge to Jordan(UW) and beat 2 seed Heflin(OSU) again to get to the finals.  Manuel(PUR) got a bad seed in my mind as he could very well be the second best guy, but, finds himself, as the 4 seed, taking on Ruth in the semi’s. That’s is he can tackle the tough task of Lofthouse(Iowa).  It’s a very tough side of the bracket.  Any of the other sides 4 top seeds wouldn’t be extremely surprising if they went all the way as well.  I think Heflin is most likely to fall short of his seeding.  The depth at this weight for the B1G is evident in their 8 bids.

 

Favorite to win: Ruth(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Manuel(PUR), Lofthouse(Iowa), Glasser(Minn), Heflin(OSU)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip caught a 7^th seed, one below Jordan(UW) who he beat.  Zeerip has some impressive wins under his belt, including Jordan and Glasser(Minn).  That 7 seed will pit him against Heflin in the quarters who he lost to 2-1 this year.  Getting a win there would bring the Jordan Glasser winner in the semi’s, which again, he has beat both.  That’s 2 doable wins away from being in the finals and would be huge for Michigan.  While there isn’t a match, until he’d make the finals, that he would be overmatched, there also isn’t an easy bout.  Losing to Heflin probably brings Jordan and then Manuel(PUR)/Lofthouse(Iowa).  I think there is a good chance he could run into Heflin again for 5^th.  At the least, shouldn’t have a problem getting his bid to NCAA’s.  Probable Target Range:  2^nd-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Ruth(PSU)
2. Glasser(Minn)
3. Manuel(PUR)
4. Lofthouse(Iowa)
5. Heflin(OSU)
6. Zeerip(UM)
7. Jordan(UW)
8. Jacobs(MSU)

 

184

 

Bracket Outlook:  Rutt(UW) looks like the favorite here with a final against Steinhaus(Minn) most likely.  That’s going off how Steinhaus looked in his dual beating Grambrall(Iowa).  From there things get pretty close among the rest.  Dallago(ILL) and Hinton(MSU) will be a good quarter match.  The consolation bracket will be full of tough matches as well.  This is a key weight for the team score with Iowa and PSU.  Gambrall could help the cause with a big win over Steinhaus in the semi’s.  Wright(PSU) has had a disappointing season to this point and he needs to turn in a much better showing for the Lions.  He’s a big move wrestler, capable of catching anyone.  6 bids up for grabs and the last three could be a fight among 5 wrestlers. 

 

Favorite to win: Rutt(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Gambrall(Iowa), Steinhaus(Minn)

 

Where might you find your Wolverine:  You won’t find Collins seeded.  The only Wolverine to miss out.  He’ll need to pick up a win in that first round in order to make the podium.  Collins only wins have been against other unseeded wrestlers, with no promising showing in his losses to others.  Placing would be tough for him.  Getting a bid seems out of the question.  Probable Target Range: 8^th-Not Place.

 

Prediction:

1. Rutt(UW)
2. Steinhaus(Minn)
3. Gambrall(Iowa)
4. Dallago(ILL)
5. Wright(PSU)
6. Kissel(PUR)
7. Hinton(MSU)
8. Magrum(OSU)

 

197

 

Bracket Outlook:  Lots of top level talent here for the B1G.  The top 6 seeds rank in the top 11 nationally.  Figuring out who makes a run may be tricky here.  Lofthouse(Iowa) has been on a tear and looked impressive.  He hasn’t wrestled the favored and 2^nd ranked Brandvold(UW) though.  Also, Yohn(Minn) has made a less then impressive return from injury lately, but, before that was one of the top contenders nationally.  He looked very rusty against Lofthouse in their dual, but, its been two weeks since then.  Yohn kicks off with a tough quarterfinal draw against Powless(IU).  The Brown(PUR) Biondo(UM) quarter will be another good one that round.  The semi’s will be stacked, but, I can’t see anything other then a Brandvold, Lofthouse final.  6 bids are available here and after the top six seeds, there is a pretty obvious drop-off.  I don’t think there will be any other surprises there.

 

Favorite to win: Brandvold(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Lofthouse(Iowa), Yohn(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Biondo is the bottom man among the to 6.  I see him falling out of the championship bracket quick with a loss to Brown(PUR) in the quarters.  Then assuring his bid with a win in the consolations against Barczak(ILL).  From there, a combination of Yohn(Minn)/Powless(IU) in the next round and for 5^th, will be where he ends up.  Both of which I don’t see him winning.  Probable Target Range: 6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Brandvold(UW)
2. Lofthouse(Iowa)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Brown(PUR)
5. Powless(IU)
6. Biondo(UM)
7. Barczak(ILL)
8. Capone(OSU)

 

285

 

Bracket Outlook:  The big boys.  Wade(PSU) is the favorite, although vulnerable. He’s lost to Rizqallah(MSU) and needed to pull off a big comeback pin to beat Apland(UM).  Alcala’s(IU) only loss has been to Wade.  The 3^rd seed Rasing(Iowa) has been on a rise of late, knocking off some top competition.  Throw in Apland and Nelson(Minn) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those 5 win it all.  Most likely, you’ll see a Wade Alcala final though.  I’m not convinced Rasing can continue his hot streak and see Apland knocking him off in consolations.  Nelson might be the most likely to stop Wade and make the finals.

 

Favorite to win: Wade(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Alcala(IU), Nelson(Minn), Rasing(Iowa), Apland(UM)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Apland has had a disappointing finish to his regular season.  He caught a tough seed at 5, having to face Nelson out of the gate in the quarters.  That leaves a lot of work to be done in consolations.  Will find himself in a key match against Rasing to get into the 3^rd place match.  I think he pulls it off and might see Nelson again for 3^rd.  Probable Target Range: 1^st-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Wade(PSU)
2. Alcala(IU)
3. Nelson(Minn)
4. Apland(UM)
5. Rasing(IA)
6. Bugenhagen(UW)
7. Rizqallah(MSU)
8. Kuhar(NW)

 

 

Team Score

 

Like I said, this looks like a PSU Iowa battle.  It could come down to the bonus points each wrestler can pick up for them, but, most likely, how a few weights work out will be the difference. 

 

For Penn State, they go in with 5 top seeds and favorites win each weight.  3 of those weights I don’t see PSU being tested (149,157,174).  The other two are pivotal towards edging the Hawkeyes (133,285).  Those both have serious contenders from Iowa in Ramos(133) and Rasing(285).  Penn State needs to make sure they cash in where they are favored as much as they can since they are hurt by 2 weak weights (165,197) to Iowa’s 1 (149).  If Wright at 184 and Pataky at 125 both come in with top 4 finishes and the 5 favorites come through with any big stumbles, Penn State walks away with it.   

 

Iowa is working with a more well rounded lineup then having heavy hitters.  125 with McDonough is the only weight they are favored.  But, the Hawkeyes will be shooting to place in the top 4 at up to 9 weights.  They have a history of turning it on come tournament time and some of the key weights they need to do that in may be motivated after their low points against Minnesota.

 

Minnesota’s the only team with 10 seeded wrestlers.  They are just lacking the firepower to pick up enough points to get in the mix. 

 

The battle for 4^th will be fun, although, Michigan has beat each of the contenders here heads up.  In a tournament though, Wisconsin may have the advantage.  They have 4 legit shots at B1G champions with Howe making a return.  Those go a long way in moving up the tournament ladder.  Northwestern has a couple shots at the finals earning them some decent points.

 

For Michigan its all about placing.  They look to place in all but 1 weight.  Hitting the high end of their target ranges will make a push at Wisconsin for 4^th.  As I see it, 5^th may be where they end up.

 

Team Prediction:

 

1.      Penn State

2.      Iowa

3.      Minnesota

4.      Wisconsin

5.      Michigan

6.      Northwestern

7.      Illinois

8.      Indiana

9.      Purdue

10.  Ohio State

11.  Michigan State

This diary is based on all the possible outcomes to the last six Big Ten basketball games and how the outcomes affect the tournament seeding.  I went through all 64 possible combinations and weighted each outcome based on the percentages that kenpom.com had projected for each game.  Here are some of the results:

 Most Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1	Ohio State
2	Purdue
3	Wisconsin
4	Illinois
5	Michigan
6	Michigan State
7	Penn State
8	Minnesota
9	Northwestern
10	Iowa
11	Indiana

This outcome has a 24.9% likelihood  of occurring.

Least Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1	Ohio State
2	Wisconsin
3	Purdue
4	Michigan State
5	Penn State
6	Illinois
7	Michigan
8	Northwestern
9	Minnesota
10	Iowa
11	Indiana

This outcome has a 0.04% likelihood of occurring.

Here is the list of each team with their probabilities of seeding.  The order is based on the most likely outcome listed above:

 

Ohio State
1	82.15%
2	17.85%

 

 

Purdue
1	17.85%
2	79.66%
3	2.49%

 

 

Wisconsin
2	2.49%
3	97.51%

 

 

Illinois
4	38.03%
5	51.16%
6	7.76%
7	3.05%

 

 

Michigan
4	27.97%
5	38.03%
6	22.78%
7	11.22%

 

 

Michigan State
4	34.00%
5	6.19%
6	41.08%
7	18.73%

 

 

Penn State
5	4.62%
6	28.38%
7	67.00%

 

 

Minnesota
8	67.00%
9	33.00%

 

 

Northwestern
8	33.00%
9	67.00%

 

 

Iowa
10	72.31%
11	27.69%

 

 

Indiana
10	27.69%
11	72.31%

 

Interesting things to note:

• Michigan State is more likely to get a 7 seed than a 5 seed
• Illinois is the most likely team to get a 4 seed and a 5 seed
• Purdue has a decent shot (17.85%) at getting the 1 seed (they need win against Iowa and have Wisconsin beat Ohio State)
• Michigan has a 66% chance at a first round bye
• Michigan’s most likely 1^st round opponent is Illinois
• Michigan has a 6.2% chance at a rematch with Michigan State in the 4/5 game

Obviously this will change after tonight’s game, but the snapshot in time is a nice reference to have.  Let me know if you want to know any more specifics about the stats.

Good Counsel High School in Maryland produces top prospect after top prospect year in and year out. Michigan signed one of them last year in DB Blake Countess, and they're targeting a few of his teammates for 2012. I spoke with assistant coach Kevin McFadden today about his athletes, and where they're at in the process. "Michigan has a shot, all the kids are open right now. They're all just thankful that they have the opportunity with all these programs. They're trying to concentrate on the academic side of everything, so when the time comes they have everything in order," said Coach McFadden.

The Michigan coaches have targeted and offered DB Stefon Diggs, RB Wes Brown, DE Ryan Watson, and OL Mike Madaras so far from Good Counsel. "Wes is probably one of the most sought after running backs in the country. He has a ton of offers, he's a leader, and his work ethic is good," he said. "Wes is going to be a rags to riches story. He takes the game serious, and it's all about creating an outlet for his family. He's a very responsible kid, and even more focused on academics now more than ever." Coach McFadden is also confident that Michigan will be interested in a few more of his players once he sends their film. "We have a couple other kids Michigan should offer, we have DL Rod Chungong (6'3", 240 lbs),  2013 DB Kendall Fuller (6'0", 175 lbs), and 2013 DB Kirk Garner (5'10", 165 lbs) that will get some looks from Michigan," he said.

The fact that Michigan did sign Blake Countess may end up helping them, but it's no guarantee according to the coach. "Blake's been talking to them about Michigan, but he knows just like it was for him, it's their decision. I'm sure he's been saying stuff about Michigan, but he understands what they have to do," said McFadden. Having coached so many prospects, and for a number of years Coach McFadden has also built relationships with fellow coaches that may help Michigan in the future. "Me and Urban Meyer played together at Cincinnati, that's my guy. He and Mattison coached together, and Mattison is one of my mentors in the business and the game. We kindled that relationship years ago, and we stumbled upon each other again when he came through to recruit Blake," he said. Again, the hiring of Greg Mattison and his track record has been validated from the outside.

McFadden has coached his fair share of athletes, some of which are now competing to make it to the NFL. Despite the amount of talent that he's seen, he thinks this batch is just as good. "These kids are NFL kids, they're good. They're right up there with some of the best kids we've had. They've seen the kids before them, and the appropriate measures they've had to put in place with academics, perseverance, and they've seen the outcome with those other guys. The success of the other kids has really prepared them for everything," he said. As far as what's next for this group, Coach McFadden says they will take a few trips during the spring, and try to get everything in order for the summer.