Diaries

A few weeks ago there was a post that talked about the myth of SEC speed, and the larger issue of player quality among the different US regions.  I don't know that I agreed with the article linked in that post, but it did bring up some interesting points.  When I reviewed the Rivals250 watch list for 2012 , I had this in mind and began analyzing player location.  Of course I didn't come up with anything other than very crude conclusions re. that particular issue, but I did find the exercise more generally informative about recruiting as a whole.  I'll present it here, with the understanding that many similar analyses have likely been completed in the past, and those much better in findings and scope. 

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/rankings/rank-2851

First up - where do they come from?  Well, that's Texas, Florida, and California, and you knew that.  The top 15 states in terms of the most R250 players:

#	State
35	TX
33	FL
31	CA
15	GA
14	OH
10	LA
9	MD
8	PA
8	NC
8	AL
7	AZ
7	NJ
7	IL
6	MI
6	WA

• TX, FL, CA, GA, and LA together hold nearly half of the preliminary 250, with 124 athletes
• The Top 15 states, which you'll notice includes MI, hold 82% of the R250
• There are 34 states represented by the R250, and 19 of them have 5 or fewer players
• 16 states are not represented at all.  Many of those are smaller states or Alaska, but some surprises: Kansas, West Virginia, Connecticut, and our new B1G member Nebraska have no players in the R250
• Iowa, Oregon, and Wisconsin each have 1 player
• Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana (home of ND, Purdue, and IU) have 2 players
• New York also has only 2 players - it's hardly the empire state for football, despite having an enormous population.  There are probably answers to those player quality questions here, which likely involve player development and the popularity of football in the area.  But this is just speculation.

In terms of which conference the players belong to, I made some crude assumptions: players play at home, and states are split according to popular custom.  Re. the latter, the example would be MI and OH are 100% B1G states, but PA is 2/3 B1G and 1/3 BEAST (for Penn State and Pitt respectively).  FLA is 2/3 ACC and 1/3 SEC, to recognize MYTM, FSU, and UF.  Yes it's simplistic.  It's also hard to do it any other way. 

Conference
SEC	57
PAC10	50
ACC	47
B1G	38
B12	28
BEAST	12
OTHER	18
	250
*B1G = 15% of total

So yes the SEC RULZ.  They get there by taking 1/3 of FLA (11 players), and all of GA (15), LA (10), and AL (8).  The PAC10 comes in second by virture of CA, AZ, and WA.  ACC is third?  That's what 2/3 of FLA, plus MD (and their 4 OLGC players) and NC will get you.  B1G is fourth, more in a bit.  B12 is fifth, made up almost entirely of 2/3 of TX (the other 1/3 went to OTHER), plus 3 kids from MO and 2 from OK.  The B12 is Texas in every way it can be anything.  BEAST is hopeless, but that's a pretty good abbreviation eh? 
The B1G is made up of OH, PA, IL, and MI.  Michigan isn't in a terrible position, but with B1G regions making up just 15% of the total, needs to be in FL, TX, and CA to be a national power.  ND has nothing in IN and does just fine.  

What about the position breadowns? 

Position
QBs	22
RBs	22
WRs	36
TEs	7
OL	39
DTs	20
DEs	31
LBs	23
DBs	23
ATH	27
	250

Not sure how this compares to previous years, but the good news is that there are 39 OL and 36 WRs - two positions of need next year.  DEs are also very deep - OH has six alone (and that doesn't include Pharaoh Brown or Odenigbo).  But also very few DTs or TEs.  MI has only one of either, and unfortunately O'Brien looks to be vexed by the orange sun and questionable head coaching strategies of UT.  OH has neither a DT nor TE, and only one each of LB, OL, and DB.  We'd like to keep all of the MI guys who represent, yo:

Kelby Latta	OL	Battle Creek, MIHarper Creek
Danny O'Brien	DT	Flint, MIPowers Catholic
Royce Jenkins-Stone	LB	Detroit, MICass Tech
James Ross	LB	Orchard Lake, MISt. Mary's
Efe Scott-Emuakpor	WR	East Lansing, MIEast Lansing
Terry Richardson	DB	Detroit, MICass Tech

 Generalities:

Height			Weight
6'9"	2		300+	17
6'8"	2		290s	10
6'7"	8		280s	12
6'6"	16		270s	12
6'5"	24		260s	9
6'4"	35		250s	11
6'3"	34		240s	6
6'2"	49		230s	10
6'1"	24		220s	19
6'0"	22		210s	16
5'11"	15		200s	21
5'10"	9		190s	33
5'9"	6		180s	37
5'8"	3		170s	22
5'7"	1		160s	12
	250		150s	3
*216>6'0" (86%)				250
			*128 <200s (51%)

• 86% of the R250 are 6'0" or taller - marry a big girl
• 51% of the R250 are in the 200s or lighter, surprisingly - it's OK to marry a thin girl
• Want a 300+ pounder?  There are only 17 in the country right now (though they may grow over the year): 11 OL and 6 DTs - not enough of you are marrying big enough girls

No grand conclusions, but some interesting info.  I haz spreadsheet, so questions are welcome.  The data at Rivals is easy to copy and paste into Excel.  I'll probably update this when it changes from watch list to the actual R250.  Go Blue and that is all

Big Ten Tournament kicks off Saturday and goes through Sunday where the finals will air on the BTN at 4pm. 

 

To start, let me say the strength of a tournament is singling out the top teams and finding a champion.  Slotting the remaining teams into where they belong is where its weakness is to me.  It will be interesting to see how the Iowa Penn State battle will play out as I see them as the favorites to win it and they may be separated by a very slim margin.  Minnesota isn’t far behind if both seem to falter.  From there your looking at 3 teams fighting for 4^th-6^th in Wisconsin, Michigan and Northwestern.  Illinois, Indiana and Purdue look to have solid showings.  Ohio State and Michigan State will be the bottom dwellers.  If you’d like to see a very pro-Iowa outlook, check here. 

 

Here’s a weight by weight break down of the tournament:

 

125

 

Bracket Outlook:  This weight is setting up for a McDonough(Iowa) Precin(NW) final.  The only thing coming close to making this not happen may be the semi-final with Precin and Sanders(Minn), but, I still don’t see that happening.  After Sanders there is a bit of a drop-off to Pataky(PSU) and Boyle(UM).  Pataky, a senior, spent some time injured having returned just a few weeks ago.  He split two matches with Boyle, winning the latter.  Another drop-off from there as about 4 guys will have a legitimate fight for the final 3 spots. Top 5 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.

 

Favorite to win: Matt McDonough(Iowa)

 

Top contenders: Brandon Precin(NW), Zach Sanders(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: With the 5^th seed, Boyle is already in the quarterfinals in probably his biggest match against Pataky(PSU).  Winning that match sets up the best path for him to place high.  Losing that quarterfinal would drop him on the side of the consolation bracket that would run into the Sanders(Minn) Precin(NW) loser before the 3^rd place match.  Both I consider a lose for Boyle.  I’m not optimistic he gets into the semi’s and see him winning one match in the consolations before getting slotted into the 5^th place match, where he would be the favorite.  That would get him his NCAA bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. McDonough(Iowa)
2. Precin(NW)
3. Sanders(Minn)
4. Pataky(PSU)
5. Boyle(UM)
6. Brooks(IU)
7. Eppert(PUR)
8. Kelliher(UW)

 

133

 

Bracket Outlook:  Loaded weight for the B1G.  Semi’s will provide just as much entertainment as the finals with 4 guys I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them won it all.  Long(PSU) has in my mind been wrestling the best down the stretch.  A bit of a surprise he got the #1 seed though.  Graff(UW) had been the favorite until his loss to Long.  Ramos(Iowa) went undefeated in B1G duals, with beating Long and no wrestling Graff.  Long will have to get past a surging Futrell(ILL) who should get to the semi’s but has the toughest quarterfinal with Mele(NW).  Graff and Ramos are the other semi.  Those 4 will figure out the top places.  I don’t see anyone beating Mele for 5^th.  8 spots get automatic bids to NCAA’s.  So if all the seeded wrestlers (Thorn(Minn), Stevens(UM), Paddock(OSU)) wrestle to expectations, they’re all in.  Paddock may be the most in risk.

 

Favorite to win: Long(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Ramos(Iowa), Graff(UW), Futrell(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine: A 7 seed for Stevens will see him have to get a first round win to make sure he places.  After that he’ll run into Graff(UW).  From there he’ll run into a very important match in the consolations with Thorn(Minn).  Thorn won this matchup earlier in a dual 11-7.  Winning that match guarantees a 5^th place match where he wouldn’t be the favorite against Mele(NW) but would do no worse then 6^th.  With 8 qualifiers he shouldn’t have a problem there. Probable Target range: 5^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1.      Long(PSU)

2.      Graff(UW)

3.      Ramos(Iowa)

4.      Futrell(ILL)

5.      Mele(NW)

6.      Stevens(UM)

7.      Thorn(Minn)

8.      Paddock(OSU)

 

141

 

Bracket Outlook:  The premier weight for the B1G.  The winner here might very well be the tournaments outstanding wrestler.  The top 4 seeds are the top 4 ranked wrestlers in the nation and the 5^th seed is ranked 7^th.  Russell(UM) has beat them all this year, but, they have been close matches.  Kennedy(ILL) spent some time injured.  Another weight were the semi’s will be just as entertaining with Russell and Kennedy (pending Kennedy beats 7^th ranked Alton(PSU) in the quarters) and Marion(Iowa) Thorn(Minn).  Hard to pick against Russell since he’s been winning them all.  Since Marion’s return, I don’t think there has been a better contender for that #1 spot.  I see a clash of them in the finals.  Thorn and Kennedy will be a good 3^rd place match.  Alton and Friedley(NW) should manage to get the last of the 6 automatic bids.

 

Favorite to win: Russell(UM)

 

Top Contenders: Thorn(Minn), Marion(Iowa), Kennedy(ILL)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Russell is the 1 seed and favorite to win.  Won’t be easy though.  He’ll have 4^th ranked Kennedy in the semi’s and the winner of 2^nd ranked Marion or 3^rd ranked Thorn.  He’s beat them all, but, Marion had the best shot at knocking him off this year. Probable Target range: 1^st-4^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Russell(UM)
2. Marion(Iowa)
3. Thorn(Minn)
4. Kennedy(ILL)
5. Alton(PSU)
6. Friedley(NW)
7. Fleckenstein(PUR)
8. McQuade(UW)

 

149

 

Bracket Outlook:  Here is a weight with a clear front-runner, a good guess at his finals opponent and then a lot of questions.  Molinaro(PSU) and Nadhir(NW) seem like the most likely to find the finals with Molinaro to win.  Schmitt(UW) is the biggest question mark.  Had a high ranking before being injured earlier in the year and since returning has been unimpressive.  Terrazas(ILL) and Kinser(IU) have had solid years.  Grajales(UM) has been extremely inconsistent notching some impressive wins with head scratching losses.  In the B1G tourney there is less surprises unlike the NCAA’s.  With 8 bids, the seeded guys should all manage.

 

Favorite to win: Molinaro(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Nadhir(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Grajales has a 6 seed needing to get into the quarters to make sure to place.  From there I don’t see a certain unless he got to the finals against Molinaro(PSU), but, a more then likely loss in the semis against Nadhir(NW) or in the quarters against Kinser(IU).  Grajales has the potential to do damage, but, Im not extremely confident in him.  Lots of tough matches and being a bit undersized and young, makes for a tough go.  I think Kinser nips him in the quarters leaving him to beat Osterman(MSU) again to solidify the 5^th place match and getting there after losing to Terrazas(ILL).  Could find the question mark Schmitt(UW) here for 5^th.  With 8 bids, I think he’s safe to get that.  Probable Target Range: 2^nd-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Molinaro(PSU
2. Nadhir(NW)
3. Terrazas(ILL)
4. Kinser(IU)
5. Grajales(UM)
6. Schmitt(UW)
7. Osterman(MSU)
8. Zilverburg(Minn)

 

157

 

Bracket Outlook:  Taylor(PSU) has been impressive here all year, beating everyone decisively.  St.John(Iowa) will have a good semi with Welch(NW) that I see St.John winning.  That semi will be better then the final.  I don’t see anyone else that could get Welch after that.  Salazar(PUR) and Young(IU) will be the two most likely to get that 3^rd place match with Welch.  The biggest match for a bid might be in the consolations between Zeerip(UM) and McMurray(MSU).  Winner there clinches a bid.

 

Favorite to win: Taylor(PSU)

 

Top contenders: St. John(Iowa), Welch(NW)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip is a curious case.  He got the nod over McMurray(MSU) for the 6 seed even though he just lost to him 8-2.  He has the ability to compete with anyone after the top contenders.  He’ll have Welch early in the quarters sending him to the consolations.  There he’ll draw that crucial bout with McMurray.  He wins there and he could fight his way to the 3^rd place match.  A loss and no auto-bid.  Probable Target Range: 4^th-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Taylor(PSU)
2. St. John(Iowa)
3. Welch(NW)
4. Salazar(PUR)
5. Young(IU)
6. McMurray(MSU)
7. Zeerip(UM)
8. Mincey(Minn)

 

165

 

Bracket Outlook:  Big wrench was thrown in here when Howe(UW) said he was coming back.  He suffered a major knee injury early in the season and this tournament will be his first action since.  He is a 2 time B1G champ and returning National champ.  But, if there was a weight more wide open to walk in and win after an injury, this might be it.  Not to say it doesn’t have it share of solid wrestlers though.  How healthy and how far Howe can go is the biggest wildcard.  Sponseller(OSU) was the favorite before the return.  Yohn(Minn) and Janssen(Iowa) recently had a tight 6-4 match that Yohn came out ahead on.  They’ll push Howe and Sponseller before most likely ending up fighting for 3^rd.  Yates(UM) and Polz(ILL) will probably find themselves in a very important match for 5^th considering there is only 5 bids available here.

 

Favorite to win: Howe(UW)

 

Top contenders: Sponseller(OSU), Janssen(IA), Yohn(MN)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Yates got a 6 seed and will run into Yohn(Minn) who has beat him earlier.  He’ll drop to the consolations and find LaBlanc(IU) most likely.  He’ll need that to guarantee a 5^th place match and unless he beats the Janssen(Iowa) Howe(UW) loser, that’s where he’ll be.  Probably have Polz(ILL) there in that critical battle for the last bid.  Probable Target Range: 5^th-6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Howe(UW)
2. Sponseller(OSU)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Janssen(Iowa)
5. Polz(ILL)
6. Yates(UM)
7. LaBlanc(IU)
8. Bialka(NW)

 

174

 

Bracket Outlook:  Fr. Ruth(PSU) is primed to win here, but, it’s a tight battle for who the next best is.  Glasser(Minn) has a tough road, but, might be that guy.  He’ll have to avenge to Jordan(UW) and beat 2 seed Heflin(OSU) again to get to the finals.  Manuel(PUR) got a bad seed in my mind as he could very well be the second best guy, but, finds himself, as the 4 seed, taking on Ruth in the semi’s. That’s is he can tackle the tough task of Lofthouse(Iowa).  It’s a very tough side of the bracket.  Any of the other sides 4 top seeds wouldn’t be extremely surprising if they went all the way as well.  I think Heflin is most likely to fall short of his seeding.  The depth at this weight for the B1G is evident in their 8 bids.

 

Favorite to win: Ruth(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Manuel(PUR), Lofthouse(Iowa), Glasser(Minn), Heflin(OSU)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Zeerip caught a 7^th seed, one below Jordan(UW) who he beat.  Zeerip has some impressive wins under his belt, including Jordan and Glasser(Minn).  That 7 seed will pit him against Heflin in the quarters who he lost to 2-1 this year.  Getting a win there would bring the Jordan Glasser winner in the semi’s, which again, he has beat both.  That’s 2 doable wins away from being in the finals and would be huge for Michigan.  While there isn’t a match, until he’d make the finals, that he would be overmatched, there also isn’t an easy bout.  Losing to Heflin probably brings Jordan and then Manuel(PUR)/Lofthouse(Iowa).  I think there is a good chance he could run into Heflin again for 5^th.  At the least, shouldn’t have a problem getting his bid to NCAA’s.  Probable Target Range:  2^nd-7^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Ruth(PSU)
2. Glasser(Minn)
3. Manuel(PUR)
4. Lofthouse(Iowa)
5. Heflin(OSU)
6. Zeerip(UM)
7. Jordan(UW)
8. Jacobs(MSU)

 

184

 

Bracket Outlook:  Rutt(UW) looks like the favorite here with a final against Steinhaus(Minn) most likely.  That’s going off how Steinhaus looked in his dual beating Grambrall(Iowa).  From there things get pretty close among the rest.  Dallago(ILL) and Hinton(MSU) will be a good quarter match.  The consolation bracket will be full of tough matches as well.  This is a key weight for the team score with Iowa and PSU.  Gambrall could help the cause with a big win over Steinhaus in the semi’s.  Wright(PSU) has had a disappointing season to this point and he needs to turn in a much better showing for the Lions.  He’s a big move wrestler, capable of catching anyone.  6 bids up for grabs and the last three could be a fight among 5 wrestlers. 

 

Favorite to win: Rutt(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Gambrall(Iowa), Steinhaus(Minn)

 

Where might you find your Wolverine:  You won’t find Collins seeded.  The only Wolverine to miss out.  He’ll need to pick up a win in that first round in order to make the podium.  Collins only wins have been against other unseeded wrestlers, with no promising showing in his losses to others.  Placing would be tough for him.  Getting a bid seems out of the question.  Probable Target Range: 8^th-Not Place.

 

Prediction:

1. Rutt(UW)
2. Steinhaus(Minn)
3. Gambrall(Iowa)
4. Dallago(ILL)
5. Wright(PSU)
6. Kissel(PUR)
7. Hinton(MSU)
8. Magrum(OSU)

 

197

 

Bracket Outlook:  Lots of top level talent here for the B1G.  The top 6 seeds rank in the top 11 nationally.  Figuring out who makes a run may be tricky here.  Lofthouse(Iowa) has been on a tear and looked impressive.  He hasn’t wrestled the favored and 2^nd ranked Brandvold(UW) though.  Also, Yohn(Minn) has made a less then impressive return from injury lately, but, before that was one of the top contenders nationally.  He looked very rusty against Lofthouse in their dual, but, its been two weeks since then.  Yohn kicks off with a tough quarterfinal draw against Powless(IU).  The Brown(PUR) Biondo(UM) quarter will be another good one that round.  The semi’s will be stacked, but, I can’t see anything other then a Brandvold, Lofthouse final.  6 bids are available here and after the top six seeds, there is a pretty obvious drop-off.  I don’t think there will be any other surprises there.

 

Favorite to win: Brandvold(UW)

 

Top Contenders: Lofthouse(Iowa), Yohn(Minn)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Biondo is the bottom man among the to 6.  I see him falling out of the championship bracket quick with a loss to Brown(PUR) in the quarters.  Then assuring his bid with a win in the consolations against Barczak(ILL).  From there, a combination of Yohn(Minn)/Powless(IU) in the next round and for 5^th, will be where he ends up.  Both of which I don’t see him winning.  Probable Target Range: 6^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Brandvold(UW)
2. Lofthouse(Iowa)
3. Yohn(MN)
4. Brown(PUR)
5. Powless(IU)
6. Biondo(UM)
7. Barczak(ILL)
8. Capone(OSU)

 

285

 

Bracket Outlook:  The big boys.  Wade(PSU) is the favorite, although vulnerable. He’s lost to Rizqallah(MSU) and needed to pull off a big comeback pin to beat Apland(UM).  Alcala’s(IU) only loss has been to Wade.  The 3^rd seed Rasing(Iowa) has been on a rise of late, knocking off some top competition.  Throw in Apland and Nelson(Minn) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those 5 win it all.  Most likely, you’ll see a Wade Alcala final though.  I’m not convinced Rasing can continue his hot streak and see Apland knocking him off in consolations.  Nelson might be the most likely to stop Wade and make the finals.

 

Favorite to win: Wade(PSU)

 

Top Contenders: Alcala(IU), Nelson(Minn), Rasing(Iowa), Apland(UM)

 

Where Might You Find Your Wolverine:  Apland has had a disappointing finish to his regular season.  He caught a tough seed at 5, having to face Nelson out of the gate in the quarters.  That leaves a lot of work to be done in consolations.  Will find himself in a key match against Rasing to get into the 3^rd place match.  I think he pulls it off and might see Nelson again for 3^rd.  Probable Target Range: 1^st-5^th.

 

Prediction:

1. Wade(PSU)
2. Alcala(IU)
3. Nelson(Minn)
4. Apland(UM)
5. Rasing(IA)
6. Bugenhagen(UW)
7. Rizqallah(MSU)
8. Kuhar(NW)

 

 

Team Score

 

Like I said, this looks like a PSU Iowa battle.  It could come down to the bonus points each wrestler can pick up for them, but, most likely, how a few weights work out will be the difference. 

 

For Penn State, they go in with 5 top seeds and favorites win each weight.  3 of those weights I don’t see PSU being tested (149,157,174).  The other two are pivotal towards edging the Hawkeyes (133,285).  Those both have serious contenders from Iowa in Ramos(133) and Rasing(285).  Penn State needs to make sure they cash in where they are favored as much as they can since they are hurt by 2 weak weights (165,197) to Iowa’s 1 (149).  If Wright at 184 and Pataky at 125 both come in with top 4 finishes and the 5 favorites come through with any big stumbles, Penn State walks away with it.   

 

Iowa is working with a more well rounded lineup then having heavy hitters.  125 with McDonough is the only weight they are favored.  But, the Hawkeyes will be shooting to place in the top 4 at up to 9 weights.  They have a history of turning it on come tournament time and some of the key weights they need to do that in may be motivated after their low points against Minnesota.

 

Minnesota’s the only team with 10 seeded wrestlers.  They are just lacking the firepower to pick up enough points to get in the mix. 

 

The battle for 4^th will be fun, although, Michigan has beat each of the contenders here heads up.  In a tournament though, Wisconsin may have the advantage.  They have 4 legit shots at B1G champions with Howe making a return.  Those go a long way in moving up the tournament ladder.  Northwestern has a couple shots at the finals earning them some decent points.

 

For Michigan its all about placing.  They look to place in all but 1 weight.  Hitting the high end of their target ranges will make a push at Wisconsin for 4^th.  As I see it, 5^th may be where they end up.

 

Team Prediction:

 

1.      Penn State

2.      Iowa

3.      Minnesota

4.      Wisconsin

5.      Michigan

6.      Northwestern

7.      Illinois

8.      Indiana

9.      Purdue

10.  Ohio State

11.  Michigan State

This diary is based on all the possible outcomes to the last six Big Ten basketball games and how the outcomes affect the tournament seeding.  I went through all 64 possible combinations and weighted each outcome based on the percentages that kenpom.com had projected for each game.  Here are some of the results:

 Most Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1	Ohio State
2	Purdue
3	Wisconsin
4	Illinois
5	Michigan
6	Michigan State
7	Penn State
8	Minnesota
9	Northwestern
10	Iowa
11	Indiana

This outcome has a 24.9% likelihood  of occurring.

Least Likely Outcome for Seeding:

 

1	Ohio State
2	Wisconsin
3	Purdue
4	Michigan State
5	Penn State
6	Illinois
7	Michigan
8	Northwestern
9	Minnesota
10	Iowa
11	Indiana

This outcome has a 0.04% likelihood of occurring.

Here is the list of each team with their probabilities of seeding.  The order is based on the most likely outcome listed above:

 

Ohio State
1	82.15%
2	17.85%

 

 

Purdue
1	17.85%
2	79.66%
3	2.49%

 

 

Wisconsin
2	2.49%
3	97.51%

 

 

Illinois
4	38.03%
5	51.16%
6	7.76%
7	3.05%

 

 

Michigan
4	27.97%
5	38.03%
6	22.78%
7	11.22%

 

 

Michigan State
4	34.00%
5	6.19%
6	41.08%
7	18.73%

 

 

Penn State
5	4.62%
6	28.38%
7	67.00%

 

 

Minnesota
8	67.00%
9	33.00%

 

 

Northwestern
8	33.00%
9	67.00%

 

 

Iowa
10	72.31%
11	27.69%

 

 

Indiana
10	27.69%
11	72.31%

 

Interesting things to note:

• Michigan State is more likely to get a 7 seed than a 5 seed
• Illinois is the most likely team to get a 4 seed and a 5 seed
• Purdue has a decent shot (17.85%) at getting the 1 seed (they need win against Iowa and have Wisconsin beat Ohio State)
• Michigan has a 66% chance at a first round bye
• Michigan’s most likely 1^st round opponent is Illinois
• Michigan has a 6.2% chance at a rematch with Michigan State in the 4/5 game

Obviously this will change after tonight’s game, but the snapshot in time is a nice reference to have.  Let me know if you want to know any more specifics about the stats.

Good Counsel High School in Maryland produces top prospect after top prospect year in and year out. Michigan signed one of them last year in DB Blake Countess, and they're targeting a few of his teammates for 2012. I spoke with assistant coach Kevin McFadden today about his athletes, and where they're at in the process. "Michigan has a shot, all the kids are open right now. They're all just thankful that they have the opportunity with all these programs. They're trying to concentrate on the academic side of everything, so when the time comes they have everything in order," said Coach McFadden.

The Michigan coaches have targeted and offered DB Stefon Diggs, RB Wes Brown, DE Ryan Watson, and OL Mike Madaras so far from Good Counsel. "Wes is probably one of the most sought after running backs in the country. He has a ton of offers, he's a leader, and his work ethic is good," he said. "Wes is going to be a rags to riches story. He takes the game serious, and it's all about creating an outlet for his family. He's a very responsible kid, and even more focused on academics now more than ever." Coach McFadden is also confident that Michigan will be interested in a few more of his players once he sends their film. "We have a couple other kids Michigan should offer, we have DL Rod Chungong (6'3", 240 lbs),  2013 DB Kendall Fuller (6'0", 175 lbs), and 2013 DB Kirk Garner (5'10", 165 lbs) that will get some looks from Michigan," he said.

The fact that Michigan did sign Blake Countess may end up helping them, but it's no guarantee according to the coach. "Blake's been talking to them about Michigan, but he knows just like it was for him, it's their decision. I'm sure he's been saying stuff about Michigan, but he understands what they have to do," said McFadden. Having coached so many prospects, and for a number of years Coach McFadden has also built relationships with fellow coaches that may help Michigan in the future. "Me and Urban Meyer played together at Cincinnati, that's my guy. He and Mattison coached together, and Mattison is one of my mentors in the business and the game. We kindled that relationship years ago, and we stumbled upon each other again when he came through to recruit Blake," he said. Again, the hiring of Greg Mattison and his track record has been validated from the outside.

McFadden has coached his fair share of athletes, some of which are now competing to make it to the NFL. Despite the amount of talent that he's seen, he thinks this batch is just as good. "These kids are NFL kids, they're good. They're right up there with some of the best kids we've had. They've seen the kids before them, and the appropriate measures they've had to put in place with academics, perseverance, and they've seen the outcome with those other guys. The success of the other kids has really prepared them for everything," he said. As far as what's next for this group, Coach McFadden says they will take a few trips during the spring, and try to get everything in order for the summer. 

 

The Stadnik household in Greensboro, North Carolina is currently two men short of fielding a complete offensive line. John Stadnik, the dad, played center in the USFL and briefly in the NFL for the Chargers. His twin sons are now following in his footsteps with Brock (6'5", 285 lbs) playing offensive tackle and Clayton (6'2", 255 lbs) as a center for Western Guilford High School. 

Both boys currently hold division one offers, with Brock being the more coveted prospect so far. "Clayton has five offers right now, and he's going through the same steps as me. We're both pretty wide open right now, and we'll probably take some visits together. It's pretty exciting to be able to go through this with him," Brock said. It's a unique situation for the pair to be able to go through in the same year, and compare notes. The twins share offers from East Carolina, NC State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest.

While they have a few offers in common, they aren't necessarily looking to be a package deal. "When we take visits we'll try to see where we feel most comfortable. We'll try to pick the schools that are best for us, and if we end up playing together then that's fine. It might happen," said Brock. 

With seventeen current offers Brock will be most likely see his number rise, and will be able to have his pick from most schools. He currently holds a 4.2 GPA with AP courses, but says that academics won't be a huge factor in how he evaluates programs. "Most schools are going to offer top educations, and I don't really want to specialize in anything," he said. "I'm leaning towards business or marketing and all universities pretty much have that. I'll be looking more for coaches chemistry, how they treat the players, comfort level, and the environment." Michigan is one of his seventeen offers and one of the schools he will be looking to evaluate in the coming months. 

Brock doesn't have a set schedule or timetable for his visits to happen yet, but does know that Michigan is a school that he wants to get to know better. "I was really excited about the Michigan offer because Michigan is pretty huge, and I really liked Jake Long growing up," he said. "As far as visits go, it's tough to get up there right now with school and everything, so I'm not sure when I'll make it up." The distance from North Carolina to Ann Arbor may hinder him from visiting now, but has helped Michigan some in his mind as well. "Michigan is a big offer too because it came from that far away this early. It's exciting to hear my name reaching places like that, and being talked about by those coaches," he said.

The combination of Brock's GPA, self-awareness, and the fact that he's a "nice kid" doesn't stop him from getting angry on the field. "A lot of people say I'm a teddy bear off the field, but when I step on the field that's when the beast comes out. I show everyone the intensity I can bring, and I leave a lot of anger on the field," he said. A 6-foot-5 teddy bear with a nasty streak that carries a 4.2 GPA has probably helped him rack up all his interest from college coaches. 

While the offers continue to come in though, Brock maintains that he's open to any school, and will wait a few months to narrow everything down. "I don't really have a top group yet. I'm still trying to hear from more schools like Penn State or USC, and a few other big ones. I've been very blessed so far with the offers I have," he said. "Everyone's pretty equal, but over the summer I'll have a better understanding and a top five. That should make things easier on me, and after that I'll be able to take visits to get to know coaches better." Brock said that it's still too early to tell who will be on his top list, but that he is definitely hoping to get to know the Michigan coaches better to help him evaluate where they stand. 

In the same spirit as yesterday's post. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.

Tales from Last Night

All the games in which Michigan had a semi-serious rooting interest last night went the wrong way (though most of those results were expected):

• Notre Dame beat Villanova 93-72.
• Florida Gulf Coast beat USC Upstate 81-65.
• Bethune-Cookman beat NC Central 73-60.
• Kansas State beat Texas 75-70. The Longhorns have singlehandedly choked their way into getting Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas State onto the bubble.
• Gonzaga beat Cal State-Bakersfield 96-49.

None of these were killers, to say the least, but Kansas State is solidly in the tournament at this point.

The Bubble

The Matrix hasn't been updated since last night's results, so consider it a day-ish behind. The information isn't changing quickly enough for that to be a huge hindrance to our purposes.

Per the Bracket Matrix:

	Bids	Bubble In	Bubble Out	Change
Big East	11	Marq (10)		None.
SEC	6	Tenn (9), UGa (10), Bama (12)		None.
Big Ten	6	Ill (10), MSU (11), Mich (12)	Minn, PSU	MSU down from 10, Mich in, Minn out.
ACC	5	BC (12), VT (10), FSU (9)	Clem, Mary	Seeds reshuffled.
Big 12	5	KSU (8)	Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt	KSU up from 9.
Pac-10	3	Wash (9), UCLA (8)	USC, Washington St.	Washington down from 8.
Atlantic 10	3	Richmond (11)	Dayton	Duquesne gone.
Mountain West	3	UNLV (8)	Colo St	None.
West Coast	2	Zaga (12), St Mary's (11)		None.
Colonial	2	Old Domin (8)	VCU	None.
CUSA	2	Memphis (11), UAB (12)	USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF	None.
WAC	1	Utah State (9)
Horizon	1	Butler (12)	Cleve St, UW-Mil
Summit	1	1-bid Oakland (13)
Ivy	1	1-bid Princeton (13)	Harvard	Princeton in, Harvard out.

I've excised all of the conferences that are going to have 1 bid no matter what, because they won't affect our bubble watch (unless a past Michigan opponent goes on a crazy run and wins the conference tourney, of course).

Today's Games

As always, your general principle is to root against all teams on the bubble, whether they're in the tournament for now, or just barely on the outside. Things get a little more complicated when Michigan's past opponents are involved.

• Illinois @ Purdue (7:00 ESPN). Since Michigan played each of these teams only once, I think you want Purdue to win. The Wolverines are fighting with Illinois for a bubble spot.
• Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7:00 ESPN2). Both of these teams are on the outside of the Big 12 bubble. I think you want Baylor to win, since they're more likely to lose their final game to Texas (well, with the way Texas is playing, who knows?) than Oklahoma state is to lose to Oklahoma.
• Alabama @ Florida (7:00 ESPNU). You want Florida to win. They are solidly in the tournament, whereas Alabama is a hardly-deserving bubble team. This could knock them out.
• Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina (7:00 Gametracker). Gardner-Webb is a past Michigan opponent. They're facing Big South 1-seed Coastal Carolina in the first round of the conference tournament. An upset here would be nice, since this is a 1-bid conference either way.
• Kent State @ Bowling Green (7:30 ESPN3). Bowling Green is a past opponent. Kent State currently leads the MAC, but it is a 1-bid league either way.
• Missouri @ Nebraska (8:00 ESPN3). Missouri is solidly in the tournament, whereas Nebraska is barely on the bubble. This would definitely knock the Huskers out for good.
• Ohio State @ Penn State (9:00 BTN). I'm torn on this game. With a sweep of the Nittany Lions under our belt, you want them to be a top-50 RPI team. On the other hand, that means they strengthen their bubble position, harming Michigan. I still think a tiebreaker of 2-0 head-to-head between UM and PSU would swing things in Michigan's way. I'll say watch this game closely, but no clear rooting interest.
• Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9:00 ESPNU). This is another game that you could go either way on. One team will knock the other onto the wrong side of the bubble for the time being. I'll say you want BC to lose, since they have a near-automatic win (against Wake Forest at home) up next. You'll be rooting HARD for Clemson to beat Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Get your rootin' shoes on. Hopefully, it'll go better than last night. It should, as you want Kenpom's favored team to win 4 of the 7 games in which there's a clear rooting interest - he also favors Ohio State to knock Penn State down the pecking order, for what it's worth. Last night, we were pulling almost exclusively for underdogs (and a crappy Texas team).