chance of bowl: 13.6%
Denard B10 Passing (8 Games)
Compare this to Denard's Overall Passing Season:
Brian mentioned a few times that Denard's B10 Season was much better than his overall season so I wanted to look at the numbers. He was able to retain his yards/attempt while completing a higher percentage of passes. The improvements he made are impressive considering it was against B10 defenses (Minnesota not withstanding) and speaks to his better understanding of the passing scheme. Denard improved immensely in 2010 and in 2011 had to learn a new system. Its reasonable to expect continuity and increased understanding, not to mention his hard-work we all know will happen. Throw in the rushing yards and Denard in 2012 could produce a year we have never seen before.
|Michigan Hockey: Alaska Preview|
|Michigan (7-7-2) at Alaska (6-8-2)|
|12/2-12/3 7:05pm Alaska Time|
Something occurred to me while I was looking at the Nanooks stats, they are exactly are same as we are. Talented playmakers on offense; a good goalie who has to work way to hard, and a defense who is totally clueless. They also spend most of the game in the box, so it's an exact replica of our team without the draft picks.
Carlo Finucci is the leader of the team and is probably the most talented player they have, and his +7 leads all forwards. On paper this offense isn't anything special, but as we have seen all of this season you don't need to be in the Top 40 to score on us.
Another bad defensive unit, the stats tell all. The Nanooks blueliners don't score, they are just as lost as we are, and they sit in the box. Does this matter? No it doesn't, because on Fridays hockey god says “Thou shall not score more than one goal.” One thing they do very well is block shots, Aaron Gens leads the team with 42. He probably doesn't walk much, and his dark red shins may or may not be mistaken for Brian Kelly's face. But seriously, that could be a huge problem for us because all season long our team has struggled to defend the other teams rush. Blocked shots can easily lead to transition opportunities for the other team, so they need to control the puck.
Does this look familiar?
Not a bad goaltender but he has to works way too hard. He comes into this series at 20th Nationally, but with the way his defense has played for him it's amazing that he has preformed so well. The NCAA stats are skewed because players who have only played a few games still count, so he could be much higher than 20th. If he is on his game this series is going to be very difficult.
|Phil Di Giuseppe||7-5-12||42||+8||12|
It's hard to figure out what is going on with this offense. Somehow they are 4th Nationally in scoring, but something is just not right. There are many factors that could help us understand what is wrong, but I can't put my finger on it. I firmly believe that Lindsay Sparks is hurting more then helping, his offense is outstanding but on defense he is killing us. It's hard to tell what line he is on without seeing an entire game, but at this point Red needs to consider moving him down. He just doesn't possess the skills to defend a 1st or 2nd line college player.
Maybe I'm getting a little ahead of myself on this idea, but I also feel that Phil Di Giuseppe has become one of the most important players on this team. Just looking through the box scores Michigan is 5-1-1 when he records a point, and just 2-6-1 when he does not. This team has scorers but he is a playmaker, and that is what we are lacking. Just a thought, but it is something to consider.
I don't even no where to start. It's so bad even the sound of Al Randall's voice can't make it better. Just watching highlights Northeastern should have had at least 6 goals. Seriously? One of the worst offensive teams in the Nation took us to the woodshed on our own ice. This picture doesn't look like much but it summarizes everything that is going wrong, that's Greg Pateryn skating about 20 feet to far forward. WTF man?
I think a part of me died inside when I watched a NE player throw the puck from the offensive zone faceoff circle, over a Michigan defenders head to someone standing all alone in bolivia for a breakaway. Ughh.
It was expected that the workload would catch up to him and it has. Hunwick has played outstanding in the net and his heroics have kept us in most of our losses, but he can't do it all by himself. I haven't gotten on Hunwick for his performance and I won't start now.
This is a hard one. We have the talent to do it, but the factors going into this game make me very pessimistic. It's always hard when we have to play in Alaska; it's a Friday game, we are in free fall, we lost to Northeastern. I have to say a split is the best case, but the season is on the line and im sure Red has them in panic mode. I think we lose the first game and take the second.
Finally! No,... FINALLY!!!!!
So that game was closer than it should have been. Raise your hand if you think the replay official had taken Ohio against the spread. A touchdown would have made it a 10 point game with Michigan covering the 9 point spread. But let's bitch about that later.
10-2 with wins against ND and OSU! It's beyond all expectations. If we hadn't laid an egg at Iowa and gotten screwed by the refs that game, we'd be sitting with just one loss, 3 close wins, and 8 curb stompings. You could say that I'm sold on this coaching staff. I had no idea the coordinators and position coaches would be this good. We still have a lot of issues with our WLB and our secondary, but we're light years ahead of where we were last season.
On to the pics!
I have to give him credit for coming out with an aggressive gameplan that put a lot of pressure on Braxton Miller's arm and Posey's ability to get separation. It almost worked. But the punt from the 36 yard line was a pure Zookian moment.
It's 4th and 4, the game is a high scoring affair, you've been moving the ball pretty well with your mobile QB and there's a strong possibility that you'd only be gaining 16 yards with a punt anyway. There's no debate. This was a HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE decision. Their punter did a good job executing the coffin corner kick, but that still doesn't justify the thought process.
Add that to Fickell's continued clock mismanagement, and I doubt you'll find a single bucknut fan who is sad to see him go (or demoted, or whatever). Not forcing a punt at the end of the first half was not that bad with a one point lead, but wasting 16 seconds for a 3rd down spike on the last drive was just awful. You could even hear Spielman rolling his eyes at that.
F* That guy
Miller is going to be a problem going forward. He fits "Urban Meyer's offense" as Spielman called it during the game (so much for the two weeks of pretense) almost perfectly. He doesn't throw a very accurate ball but *cough*tebow*cough* that doesn't mean he can't be successful in that offense.
It is interesting to note that Miller had 9 TD's and only 3 picks. Yeah, he didn't have many yards or attempts and was under 50% passing, but that's still pretty remarkable for a true freshman. He's been missing his receivers in safe ways and pulling it to run if the coverage doesn't look right. That's pretty good ball security for someone you'd expect to misread coverages due to inexperience.
He started out the game doing what we expected, we just weren't ready for his speed on the first couple of plays. On this 2nd and long, Ryan is blitzing from a walked off OLB spot.
But his path is a little too much to the outside. I know he's thinking about contain, but he's got to aim more directly at Boren and then use his arms to stay off the block.
Instead, he gets pushed outside and the tackle is free to release onto Demens.
Morgan has to do a better job of reading that lineman crossing the LOS and react quicker to Miller. Ryan would adjust later, but this gave them an important early 1st down.
Mattison really sold out on stopping the run and stopping Miller's scrambling. On Kovacs' delayed blitz, you can see we did a much better job of filling the running lanes on the rush. Morgan is playing spy (which was kind of useless...) and the D-line is free to shoot the gaps away from the blitzer.
But Miller is very elusive and showed great leg strength in getting away not only from Kovacs, but also RVB. Fortunately Demens and Martin have followed the play allowing Kovacs a second shot at the sack. Meanwhile, Morgan is .... well I think Ohio watched a lot of film on Morgan and decided to go after him all game.
Martin and RVB were great all day (of course), and they were twisting on most passing downs. This is a pretty good idea when the O-line you're facing is known to have communication problems. On this play RVB is supposed to go around Martin, but Brewster gives Martin a pretty good pop.
That's no problem for the two seniors, RVB just decides to go first and Martin swings around.
The center and guard are so concerned with Mike, they let VanBergen go free for the easy TFL.
Miller picked up 1st downs with his legs all day. The early bombs really messed with our gameplan and gave him more room to run. On this 3rd and long, we've got Kovacs in the box in our crazy lineup with all the guys on the line and different people dropping out. Because of the earlier passing success, three people are dropping into coverage, even though Ohio LOVES to call the QB draw in this situation.
The result is that Morgan got caught with his weight going the wrong direction and Miller galloped over Kovacs for a big gainer.
But I think Mattison just decided he wasn't going to let Boom Herron beat us. I think Herron ended up with less than 40 yards because of plays like this. Here we've got Kovacs coming off the receiver to run blitz.
And again you can see the linemen shooting gaps away from him.
Kovacs gets in there so fast that both Boren and Posey are blocking air. Jordan gets the TFL and the Ohio is stuck in another 3rd and long.
Miller ran the speed option a lot the last few games and that continued against us. On this touchdown, he cuts against the grain and makes Roh miss in space. Spielman was babbling about how great a play call this was and how it was a counter speed option.
I call bullshit. They definitely do have a counter speed option, but this play wasn't it. You can tell because Roh is unblocked. On the designed counter, the tackle engages the end and tries to seal him inside or kick him outside.
This looks more like improvisation by Miller. I think they just tell Posey to block on the backside like he means it on every play. They got a TD here simply on Miller's talent, not on any blocking scheme. You can see he takes a hard jabstep upfield that fools Roh just enough so that he can get outside.
After that he makes an amazing jumpcut and his momentum carries him into the endzone.
THIS is the counter speed option, except it's a playaction pass. The tip off that it's a pass is that Miller turns away from the LOS instead of going nose towards it.
It's a well designed play that turns into a rollout to the right. They've got three layers with a deep corner, the intermediate cross, and Stonebrunner is going to release into the flat. If the Defense over pursues the rollout, there's even a throwback available to Herron.
But Stonebrunner doesn't hold his block long enough or Miller doesn't get enough depth and Roh is right up in his face.
A more experienced QB might have tried to hit #11 who is open, but like I said before, Miller has been very safe with the ball. Morgan does a good job of knowing who he's playing against and comes up expecting the run instead of uselessly trailing the TE.
He was wide open though. And Denard made a similar play that turned a sack into a short gain. Maybe Miller will be making those plays in the years ahead. Guh.
I'm just glad we'll have Mattison. Because when push came to shove and we needed a stop on the goal-line in the 4th quarter, Mattison basically declared that Miller wasn't going to run the ball in. And credit Kovacs for picking up the TE on playaction so that Miller didn't have an easy throw.
F* this guy too
With only one game of film to watch, our DB's were not prepared for Posey's talent.
But after a couple of short passes to him, they were very concerned about his presence. A little too concerned.
If Gordon hadn't screwed the pooch on this, the ball was not well thrown and he could have given Brown a harder time catching it since Miller threw it to the wrong shoulder and brown had to turn around to find it.
I'm going to give our DB's a tiny little bit of slack in saying they haven't faced anyone with Posey's skill except for Michael Floyd. And they had a lot of safety help against Floyd that they didnt' get for this game. Posey is as close to Mario Mannigham that I've seen on an oposing team. He does a great job of getting on the DB's toes and making them turn their hips. But still...
Even though this is a triple move, (headfake outside, cut inside, cut outside)...
You can't let a guy get that wide open. Lucky for us this duck was overthrown.
If you're going to put 8 men in the box and play man up against the WR, then freaking play man up. Troy has Posey one on one, but because he's lined up so far back, there's no chance for him to make a play on anything but a fly.
This deep cross was not a fly.
And it didn't help that Posey turned Troy around with an outside fake. Amazingly, Miller hit him in stride (no it wasn't a tight spiral).
Posey did it to all three of our DB's (Kovacs was essentially a LB this game). On the last drive he turns around Floyd. J.T. was thinking about getting an interception, and we almost paid dearly for it.
We were about a yard and a half from being down by a point. There would have still been 1:30+ left on the clock, but I was pretty happy to see this ball hit the ground. Our offense was pretty good, and Denard was pretty accurate, but no offense to Gibbons, I'm glad we didn't have to drive for a winning field goal.
[hit the jump for the remainder]
So we all know that Denard has been climbing the all-time leaders list in several categories here at Michigan. I figured I would take the time to figure out exactly where he stands now, and where he projects to be by the end of his Michigan career. I projected him to have 14 games left, erring on the side of pessimism (not including a B1G title game next year). I then averaged his stats per game from his two years as a starter over 14 games and added them to his currently accumulated stats.
DENARD ROBINSON CAREER STATS (all-time Michigan ranking)
|Pass YDs||Pass TDs||Rush YDs||Rush TDs|
|Current||4,814 (8th)||38 (6th)||3,216 (11th)||35 (7th**)|
|Total (Projected)||7,406 (3rd)||56 (4th)||4,820 (2nd)||52 (2nd**)|
ANY of those projected statistics would deem a player worthy of being suggested to be memorialized on a patch. To have all four categories up there? There will be a patch for players wearing 16, no questions asked.
Curious what kind of a season it would take for Denard to take ownership of 1st place on each of the lists?
How about passing for 4,902 yards and 50 touchdowns while rushing for 1,825 yards and 21** touchdowns? Does Denard have a shot at any of these categories? He better have a damned good bowl game this year. The rushing titles are attainable but unlikely. We would need to recruit all of Tacopants' 8-foot-tall younger cousins*** this year in order for him to think about the passing records.
Breaking it down even further, Denard would have to average the following stat line for the next 14 games to overtake our current leaders:
351 / 4 / 131 / 1.5
* - Projecting Denard - also a great name for a crappy Ann Arbor garage band or a chick flick featuring Julia Stiles trying to court Taye Diggs (or equivalent).
** - Records prior to 1949 are not official. If they were, Denard would project to 3rd all time in rushing TDs, well behind Willie Heston with 72.
*** - Raul, Ernesto, and Don Pablo Tacopants.
URBAN MEYERS PATH TO SUCCESS IN YEAR ONE
Urban Meyer has a way. It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what Meyer brings to the table because he brings a multitude of desired qualities that any school would seek. Be it charisma, pedigree, or an unrelenting desire to win, Meyer should be able to quickly right the ship in Columbus after a year of scandal and uncertainty. With Meyer standing at the podium, flashing his trademark smile and describing a Buckeye team that would compete as ferociously as his teams at Florida, Buckeye fans nationwide swooned. With that, the first seeds of success were planted at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center. Meyer won the press conference, a key victory in establishing the tone of the future at Ohio State. But the path to success is often determined by how you compete in your first year. Fortunately for Ohio State, the slate is set for an instant turnaround in Year One.
It would be dishonest to discuss Ohio State's transition without in some ways comparing it to the very same process of its arch rival Michigan. Brady Hoke won his first press conference and set the tone for the season ahead by consistently hammering home the importance of the Ohio State game into the minds of his players. Meyer, who cut his teeth coaching at Ohio State, understands how important The Game is in defining his legacy and his tenure as Head Coach. Faced with a similar rebuilding process this season, Hoke transformed a uninspired, poorly coached 7-5 team, fresh off of a 52-14 lashing in the Gator Bowl, to a fundamentally sound football team that finished 10-2 and finds itself on the brink of it’s first BCS bid since 2006. Hoke was also recently awarded the Hayes-Schembechler award for Coach of the Year for turning the Wolverines around in such a short span. But make no mistake, Hoke, despite his constant emphasis on beating Ohio State, benefited from a schedule that was favorable for success. The Wolverines finished the season 8-0 at home and only faced one truly taxing road game, a game they lost to Michigan State, en route to 10 wins.
Meyer's path in Year One is eerily similar: Ohio State travels away from the Columbus only once in its first six games with a late September trip to East Lansing to face a rebuilding Spartan side that loses its starting quarterback, both starting wide receivers, and the potential early exit of tweener first rounder Jerel Worthy. A 5-0 start with a home showdown against Nebraska the following week would be a great start for Meyer and Co. in his first season. Perhaps the other most notable obstacle to such a start would be when Ohio State faces a potentially intriguing out of conference matchup with Cal. Cal has struggled mightily on the defensive front and Ohio State should likely be favored in the matchup.
Michigan had the luxury of returning talent at quarterback in Denard Robinson as does Meyer with dynamic Big 10 Freshman of the Year Braxton Miller. Meyer made it abundantly clear in his presser that meeting Braxton Miller was priority one and unsurprisingly so as his history of molding young quarterbacks is nearly unparalleled. He turned Alex Smith into the top overall pick, harnessed Chris Leak’s talents in a way that Ron Zook’s staff never could, and also notoriously make Tim Tebow a Heisman Trophy winner and two-time national champion. Couple that with the wealth of young defensive talent returning for the Buckeyes, most notably Ryan Shazier, and a 10-0 start with a de facto Leaders Division title game looming in Madison the following week is certainly on the table. If that scenario plays out, Meyer will have done enough, even before The Game, to potentially be the second recipient of the Hayes-Schembechler Award.
Consider this: Had Rich Rodriquez lasted one more year at Michigan and the Wolverines ultimately hired Hoke for the 2012 season, Hoke's first year as coach would be significantly more daunting solely because of the schedule. Michigan opens its 2012 slate against Alabama at Cowboy Stadium and faces road trips to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State. It would be difficult to imagine the Wolverines finishing the season 10-2 despite having senior leadership on offense. Urban Meyer is an amazing coach and relentless recruiter. He will bring top-tier talent to Columbus and undoubtedly have high-ranking recruiting classes. However, Urban Meyer, for all his talents, will benefit from having a favorable schedule in Year One as much, if not more, than Brady Hoke did at Michigan.