Diaries

This weekend is one of the first big visit weekends for the Michigan coaches. I've confirmed a number of big prospects so far, and as usual this list will continue to change as we get closer to the weekend.

• Visiting Today - Ohio OL Caleb Stacey (6'4", 275 lbs): No offer yet, but hoping to get one soon.  ***Michigan offered Caleb on his visit.

March 19th

• Ohio OL Kyle Dodson (6'6", 315 lbs): Michigan has made a lot of ground up with Dodson. He's very interested in Michigan.
• Mass LB Camren Williams (6'2", 215 lbs): Making his decision in June so this visit will be big for Michigan.
• Mass ATH Armani Reeves (5'11", 185 lbs): Teammate of Camren Williams, very excited about the visit.
• Michigan LB Royce Jenkins-Stone (6'2", 215 lbs): This is good for Michigan to get Royce back on campus. He's seen his recruitment take off offer-wise and Michigan needs to solidify their position.
• Michigan LB James Ross (6'0", 210 lbs): Same deal with Royce, this is great for Michigan to get James back up on campus.
• Michigan DB Terry Richardson (5'9", 160 lbs): Michigan has a lot of work to do with Terry so any type of visit is a good one.
• Michigan OL/DL Kelby Latta (6'4", 295 lbs): Michigan's new coaches have sparked some serious interest from Latta. Before the hire he was very high on Wisconsin, but the new coaches are giving Michigan a chance.
• Ohio DE Pharaoh Brown (6'6", 260 lbs): It will be good to get Brown on campus this early. There's limited spots in Ohio State's class for defensive ends and Brown could end up being a key prospect down the road.
• Michigan OL Ben Braden (6'7", 285 lbs): I reported earlier in the week that Braden had made a trip up to Michigan this past Sunday, and he was offered on that trip. Braden may be coming up this weekend, or it could be next weekend as well. 
• Illinois DT Vontrell Williams (6'2", 265 lbs): No offer yet, but hoping to get one.

Not Coming

• Ohio TE AJ Williams (6'6", 260 lbs): Williams has tried to schedule a visit for the past two weekends, but it looks like the 26th will end up the date he'll make it in.

I was there.

The almost-perfect long weekend in the middle of the last semester of our senior year. Yeah, it was a little too expensive (even though we drove). Yeah, it made finishing our classes a little tougher (but who works much in their last semester of undergrad anyhow?). And it was a chance to see something special, a potential national championship. I had watched the last one on TV (and will never forget how clutch Rumeal was, hitting those two free throws). I had celebrated on South U. (as a high schooler) with the masses, but desperately wanted to see this one in person.

Rumeal: Clutch

They held a lottery to see who got tickets. Can you imagine, not enough tickets to go see the the Final Four down in Louisiana? We won. I don't remember how many people applied, and I sure was hoping that senior status counted for something extra. But we won. And so, we went.

Welcome to New Orleans!

I was only worried about one game: Kentucky. Everybody thought they were the team to beat. And they were. A beast of a team. Led by Jamal Mashburn, they finished the season ranked #2 in the country (behind #1 Indiana, whom #9 Kansas later bounced to sneak into the Final Four); Michigan was #3, North Carolina #4. The closest (at the time) to all four #1 teams making it. How I still wonder about what would have happened had Indiana beaten Kansas...

Bobby K: Too Angry To Win

But I was there.

The Kentucky game went to overtime, Webber was a monster throughout. Look at his stat sheet: 27 points, 13 rebounds, 39 minutes of playing time. Yes, others had great games too (Howard, Jackson, Rose), but without Webber, the run would have ended. I saw a lot of Kentucky fans crying after the game. One shook my hand and offered up a weak but heartfelt "good luck"; I'll always think fondly of that small, silly moment. What luck did I need? I was just watching. Kentucky fans, man, kentucky fans.

One Kentucky Fan We Can All Get Behind

So we celebrated. A great night out on the town, as only the town that hosts Mardi Gras can deliver. And the knowledge that we had one more game, a winnable game against a good (but not great) team.

Mardi Gras Girls: No, We Didn't Meet Them

And I was there.

The team didn't seem to have their legs that infamous Monday night against UNC. I think Kentucky took a lot out of them. Watching UNC breeze by a lousy Kansas team on Saturday, I was convinced we had the tougher road, and during the last game it showed.

Don't Worry Sir, We'll Lose Easily

But those five guys (and yes, the others, too) had something, a toughness, a resilience. We managed to pull ahead with five minutes left. Someone told me one of those stupid stats which make you feel good but only in a false-bravado kind of way: Michigan hadn't lost a game that year when they were up with five minutes left. My friends and I exchanged high fives. We're going to win!

We Exchanged High Fives

But somehow they couldn't keep a guy in Donald Williams' face, and he kept making shots. Why was Jalen on him? I thought King would have been a better choice, more athletic, if shorter. But there was Williams again, making twos, making threes, and suddenly we were down.

F---ing Donald Williams (Looking Old Now)

I was there, and I remember when Webber traveled.

The whole place screamed "walk!" but somehow they didn't call it. Later, I felt thankful for the refs: they didn't want to decide the game on a stupid play like that. They just wanted to see it play out. But Webber walked, and then started dribbling like crazy up the court.

Fisher: What I Would Have Looked Like, Had We Had One More TO

Most of us were screaming "Time out!" How many goddamned basketball games have you watched where there are about 100 timeouts at the end, play moving glacially forward, the last 30 seconds taking 20 minutes? How can a team actually run out of time outs? I bet you Fisher thought about that for a long time after. If they'd just had one more timeout ...

Pelinka: Open For A Three?

Pelinka was open. The UNC guys were running around, crazy, double-teaming (turned out to be a good decision, huh?), and if Webber had just swung the ball to someone, anyone, I bet it would have made its way to Pelinka in the corner. You know, the guy who makes threes. For years, I would wake up in the night, and think about "what if Pelinka had gotten it in the corner?" Thankfully, that went away. Sport fans, we're nuts.

Time out!

Oh Webber

I was there, when all the fans looked at one another, confused.

What happened? Then some guy two rows in front of me, in that f---ing monster of a building where there wasn't much of a scoreboard anywhere near the court for players to see, said simply: "They don't have any more timeouts. That's a technical foul. We're going to lose." Our section, crazy with noise moments ago, jumping with the certainty that our guys were going to pull it out, fell slowly quiet. The UNC fans started to figure it out too; they all started to go nuts, as did their players on the bench. I still can't figure out the Dean Smith voodoo, his two championships not remembered for his team's greatness, but for the other team's failure in the clutch. For this reason, I still harbor an irrational hatred of Dean Smith.

The Dean's Voo-doo Victim #1: Fred Brown

Watching the brilliant documentary on the Fab Five the other day brought this flood of memories back. And what memories they were, and are. I've enjoyed the current season immensely, as Beilein and Co. have built up a team that is easy and fun to root for. But for two seasons in what seems like another lifetime, we had something more than that, something so rare and special that it is hard to believe it was Michigan basketball. We had rock stars for a basketball team. We cheered them on when they won, and we wept with them when they lost. We loved them, and so we wept.

It was a long drive home.

A Long Drive Home

As for the memories I have, well, scandals, banner-removals, or any other "official" process can't touch them. A memory of my own youth, a memory of a time where five kids made national headlines simply by being who they were, a memory filled with many joyous headlines, and finished with an unforgettable exclamation point, perhaps an appropriately tragic ending.

I graduated, I moved out of the state, but I will always have those memories.

You see, I was there.

[Ed-M: Bumped anyway!]

I was going to put all this into a diary and make it totally clever and informative and interesting before the tournament really kicks off, but I'm not going to have the time to do that so, in lieu of that, some unanalyzed charts for your pleasure.

I got all this information by compiling data from running searches at this database: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/ncaa/mens-basketball/search/.

First I recorded the winning percentage of all 16 seeds in each round of the tournament:

Then using this I calculated the percentage of chance a given seed had to get to each level of the tournament:

Using this I calculated the expected wins for a team at each seed:

And using this I calculated the expected wins that each conference should get in this year's tournament:

So, the B1G's 7 teams should total 9.28 wins based on seeding to meet historical expectations. Since Michigan is going to win six, I don't see this as being a problem at all.

So this was something I wanted to do since about the first MSU game, but a combination of grad classes and not wanting to jinx anything conspired to delay me until today.  But with an NCAA Tournament-clinching win against the Waffling Webers and [insert OSU results], I figured it was high time to recognize the magical run by the most inspiring UM team since 1997 in the only way I knew how – through a schmaltzy montage of posters from basketball movies and TV shows.  Call it a retroactive .

After last season’s cosmic nad-kicking as the team well woefully short of expectations and lost both Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims to the professional ranks, hopes were not high for this year’s Wolverines as they embarked on an offseason European tour.  Not only had the team lost approximately 99% of its scoring from last year, but the best most pundits could say about this club was that they might be able to “grit” and “hustle” their way to double-digit wins if they could steal a couple of wins against the likes of Harvard and Oakland over the pre-conference schedule.  That’s right – credible thought was given to UM’s prospects being tied to the unlikely scenario of slaying both Tommy and the Fightin’ Amakers and the school I passed on my way to Meadow Brook to see “Weird Al” Yankovic in concert when I was in high school.  So yeah, this was not expected to be a banner year for Beilein’s crew.

But a funny thing seemed to happen over the summer.   and all the sights – this team figured out how to play together.  Darius Morris emerged as a legitimate leader at the point, role players like Novak returned with 100% more gruis, coeur, and zähigkeit, and a faint buzz could be heard surrounding this ho-hum 3* freshman with the famous father who once made a cameo on . 

Of course, there is a big difference between playing international ball in exhibition games and competing against legitimate NCAA teams, and after a couple of cupcakes to start the season UM battled a  Syracuse team in the Legends Classic.  UM played them tight throughout, ultimately falling 53-50 after leading 31-29 at halftime.  While some saw this close loss as proof that the team was better than preseason expectations, others argued it was an aberration against a disinterested opponent, a characterization that gained support from a subsequent loss to “meh” UTEP in the consolation game.  And to make matters worse, UM was going to travel to NCAA tourney-quality Clemson as part of the ACC-Big 10 Challenge.  The conditions were ripe for the wheels to come off, and yet they didn’t.

Displaying the type of mental toughness and, um, s that belied their experience, the team took care of Clemson and followed up that with a 7-game surge that put them at 10-2 entering league play.  Sure, the wins weren’t against elite competition (though Oakland did make the tourney and Harvard probably should have), but considering how low expectations were coming in it was a pleasant surprise.

Of course, any optimism garnered from this hot start was extinguished by a 1-7 stretch to start the season, punctuated by shellackings at home to Purdue and at Wiscy.  But those were top-10 teams the thinking went, so the losses were at least expected.  But during this streak, there were also 19-point losses to the battling Jamie Macs…I mean and the Northwestern “Just as good as Brown” Wildcats.  These were not juggernauts draining bucket after bucket against UM, and the general sentiment that the 10-2 start was a red herring and this was an NIT team if they could steal a couple of wins gained purchase with the UM faithful. 

But part-and-parcel with all of this doom and gloom was a faint ember of hope kept alive by close losses to top-5 teams OSU and Kansas.  A team like UM, playing without an established inside presence and streaky, young shooters, had no business taking the JayHawks to overtime or making OSU sweat for every bucket.  And while the Wolverines shot pretty well against the Buckeyes, neither game would be thought of as a fluke in the classical sense – they were games where good teams find a way to stick around against elite squads and nearly steal a win.  But as Jesse Ventura used to say “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades”, and 1-6 to start B10 play was close to the bottom of the B10 standings.  If UM had any hope of postseason play, they needed to from this losing streak and right the ship immediately.

To do so, though, they would need to beat Tom Izzo’s MSU squad at the Breslin Center, a veritable house of horrors for UM since its opening.  Even though the Spartans had failed to live up to their preseason #2 ranking,  in East Lansing was still thick with anticipation, smugness, and AXE body spray of another MSU victory against the Wolverines. 

It has often been said that you don’t see the true mettle of a team until it has overcome adversity, when it is has succeeded in the face of imposing odds, when it has emerged victorious of competition.  On a day when nobody would have blamed the young Wolverines for folding in hostile territory, Darius Morris showed Sparty that to the tune of a 17-4-8 line while masterfully running the offense, and Zack Novak went all  and scored a season-high 19 points to go along with 6 boards, in a 61-57 upset. 

As UM basketball fans, we are all conditioned to be immensely reticent when it comes to the cagers; years of false starts and false hopes under Amaker and Ellerbe have conditioned us to remain stoic and, frankly, a little pessimistic regardless of the magnitude of the victory.  Having lived through the car wreck that was the last few Ellerbe years and the growing pains of Amaker’s first two years, I had watched this team devolve from a consistent NCAA tourney team to a squad that lost to Western Michigan two years in a row.  Two years ago, upsets against top-10 squads Duke and UCLA were met with a "let’s not blow it” mentality as the year progressed and the team slid into the NCAA tourney. 

But it was impossible to underplay the importance of this win for both this season and this team.  This might not have been a vintage MSU team, but UM still went into Breslin and beat MSU straight-up; no lucky bounces or last-minute tip-ins.  UM was the better team that day, and gave a performance nobody expected coming off 6 straight losses.  It was as if the Wolverines had pulled a on the Spartans, stealing the resolve and confidence that usually flowed from veteran squads and imbuing this team with it instead.

You know the rest of the story – UM went on a 7-3 tear, with two of those losses by a combined 3 points, and this team emerged as a legitimate NCAA-caliber team.  Jordan Morgan showed he had the to compete down low against rugged competition, and the bench continued to evolve as Evan Smotrycz found a little bit of his shooting stroke.  Novak, constantly undersized and outmuscled by PFs throughout the season, disproved the notion that by making the key defensive play against Minnesota and grabbing big rebounds amongst the trees every game.  This was still a dangerously-shallow crew, but it played like a team and bought into Beilein’s system in a way no other team had.  And nobody grew more as a player than Hardaway, who scored in double figures in every game and was the catalyst for wins over Iowa, Indiana, and Minnesota, playing and being absolutely unconscious at times from beyond the arc.

Riding this wake of momentum, the Wolverines welcomed the Spartans to Crisler to end the regular season.  Both teams were nursing legitimate NCAA hopes, and some viewed this matchup as a “bubble buster” for the loser.  All the talk leading up to the game was the MSU that had been to two straight Final Fours would emerge, that the Wolverines had a nice run but that there was no way Sparty was going to lose twice to UM in the same season.  Statistics, efficiency metrics, and even our own eyes be damned, the perception was that MSU would find a way to win this game. 

Looking back, of course, all of this bluster and worry seemed foolish.  UM raced out to a 33-25 lead, and while MSU made a couple of runs late in the second half, the Wolverines never relinquished the lead.  Every time Kalin Lucas or Durrell Summers made a play, UM answered with a nice feed from Morris to Morgan for a dunk or Hardaway taking the ball into traffic and making MSU pay at the foul line.  s Smotrycz and Vogrich provided a nice boost from the bench, and as the game wound down and Morris scored some nice

 on a coast-to-coast layup as time expired, even the most jaded UM fans couldn’t deny that this team was special.  That still might not translate to an NCAA bid, though, and that was why the BTT was essential.

In the first game of the tourney, UM was pitted against a far more experienced and taller Illinois team, with both teams knowing that a victory would punch their respective tickets to the tourney.  At the half Illinois held an 11-point lead, and there were some (me included) that thought maybe the magic had run out on the season one game too soon.  But as they had done all year long, this team just kept battling.  Led by an always-underrated defense, the Wolverines stormed back in the second half, outscoring the Illini by 16(!) to win 60-55.  In the immortal words of Rasheed Wallace, , and it was saying UM was going to be in the NCAA tournament.  A close loss to #1 overall seed OSU did little to damper this optimism, and the only surprise on Selection Sunday was UM earning an 8 seed as opposed to the 10 or 11 seed most expected. 

It has been an amazing season so far by the Wolverines, one made sweeter by the low expectations and the realization that this team is positioned to continue this resurgence well into the future.  A masterful coaching job by Beilein, he guided a young squad through myriad of potential landmines and is recruiting the type of high-end recruits that will be needed to sustain this success going forward.  Any doubts about his coaching ability were laid to rest this year, and hopefully for good.

But perhaps the most important product of this magical run is that it let a large portion of the UM faithful, those scarred by the Ed Martin scandal and the subsequent dark years, to believe again in this team.  That might sound sappy, but even the tourney bid in 2009 felt like a tease after the team stumbled through a mediocre season last year.  But this team is different, this coach is different, and this program is different than it was since Steve Fisher walked the sidelines; it is a healthy program with a bright future, free of the cancers that plagued it for over a decade.  I don’t know how the team will fare against a schizophrenic Tennessee squad or a third-round clash with mighty Duke, but what I do know is that UM is back as a basketball school, and saying that after all these years is .

Pennsylvania linebacker Noah Spence (6'4", 245 lbs) is lucky enough to come from an excellent family and to have his father help him through his recruitment. Having someone like his father take on most of the work has helped allow Spence to enjoy the process. "Noah is still getting offers on a weekly basis, almost daily," his father said. "He feels it's best to keep an open mind and talk with all the folks. Hopefully we'll see some spring practices, but he's just kind of feeling his way through now."

With offers from almost everywhere it's going to be difficult to narrow down his list without actually seeing the campus in person. The Spence family is looking forward to seeing some new places, and they have a plan for how to attack them for the spring. "In terms of visits this spring I think he was talking about going to places that are reasonably close," said his father. "Penn State for one of the practices, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and possibly Virginia. Basically places that are within a five to six hour drive."

School and athletics take up much of Noah's time, which is why they don't want to travel too far until school lets out. Once the summer hits they plan on expanding out to places like Michigan and Notre Dame. "I'm pretty good friends with a very good guy, Jesse Rawls, who used to wrestle [at Michigan]. He's been talking up Michigan, and he said Ann Arbor is only about seven hours away," he said. "I know it has the biggest stadium and it seems like a beautiful campus. We definitely want to get out to Michigan."

The elder Spence understands that the new Michigan staff hasn't had much time to settle in, and is impressed that it hasn't stopped them from recruiting his son. "The coaches sound very enthusiastic. It's much appreciated and I know that Noah wants to find out more about Michigan. They have picked up the pace with recruiting Noah, and it was good to see because we're very fond of Michigan," said Mr. Spence. "It was a nice balance of athletics and academics. You can't really go wrong athletically at Michigan and the academics speak for itself." 

Based on the communication between the coaches and Noah they see him at the outside linebacker spot, and as a key piece of their system. "He's been called a natural pass rusher by a few coaches. He's fond of pursuing the ball, and Michigan wants a fast explosive defense that gets after the quarterback," he said. The aggressive style of defense seems to fit what Noah is used to, and Greg Mattison's past defensive styles have shown the Spence's what to expect. "The Ravens and Florida are both aggressive defenses. That has an impact on us and it seems to align with Noah very well," said Mr. Spence.

Players at Spence's high school, Bishop McDevitt, aren't allowed to graduate early so the plan is to take his time with his recruitment and find the best fit. "I think Noah wants to get all the information he can, get a feel for the coaches, and visit campuses," he said. "I don't see [a decision] coming in the near future, maybe if something blows his mind and he says this is it. From what I gather though, he wants to take his time with it." 

This past weekend saw a few visitors on campus including LB Vince Biegel, DT Sheldon Day,  and TE Devin Funchess. Visit reactions were minimal as they usually are this early in the process. This was the start of many, many visit weekends for Michigan though, so here's a look at some reactions, future visits, and other notes.

Vince Biegel

6'3", 210 lbs.

Linebacker

Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin

Biegel and his father got a chance to take in Ann Arbor for the first time this weekend and it made a impression on the two.

We got there Friday, got to see the facilities and meet Coach Hoke and Coach Mattison. It was a good visit. We went over schemes with Coach Mattison, and he was showing us Ravens film. He showed me where I would fit in and where he thought I could play at linebacker.

Vince has a top three of Wisconsin, Michigan, and BYU. This visit helped Michigan's case... to a certain extent.

Wisconsin is probably still ahead of Michigan, but I will say that Michigan is definitely in my top three. I really liked Michigan and one thing that stood out was Coach Hoke. He's just a really good guy and a down to earth guy. I'm not really a big facility guy either but I was pretty impressed with Michigan's facilities.

He and his father both said they enjoyed the visit and had fun catching up with Coach Mattison, who recruited the elder Biegel out of high school as well. Vince's plan now is to visit BYU and take in a few spring practices. He said he will likely make it to a Michigan practice and then make his decision. I do think it will be hard to take over Wisconsin's spot at the top. 

Allen Gant

6'1", 182 lbs

Defensive Back

Sylvania, Ohio

The Michigan legacy was on campus on Thursday hoping to get an offer, but unfortunately came away empty handed. Gant wasn't offered but the coaches did tell him how they feel.

We basically talked about coming back up there for a junior day, so I'll be back up there on [March] 26th. I'm most likely going to their camp too. They were just telling me that they're really interested and that they see me playing at safety for them.

Gant took in the visit with his father, Tony, who played under Bo Schembechler in 1982. 

[My dad] enjoyed himself and he thinks Michigan will be back the way it used to be. We got to talk to Coach Mallory, Mattison, and Hoke about everything. I feel a lot more comfortable now that I got to sit down and talk with all of them.

The Wolverines are making ground with Gant but still want to see him perform in person before extending the offer. He'll likely have to wait until his camp performance to hear anything new. 

Evan Boehm

6'3", 290 lbs

Offensive Lineman

Lee's Summit, Missouri

Boehm received an offer from Michigan this past week, which was followed shortly by offers from Auburn and Stanford. The offensive lineman-slash-wrestler was excited about all the new attention.

I just won a state wrestling championship and I was offered by Michigan, Auburn, and Stanford on Sunday so things are going well. I definitely want to get up to Ann Arbor for a visit, I've heard it's beautiful. I just need to talk to my dad about when we can take it. 

Boehm's dad also happens to be his football coach which is probably the cause of some of Evan's success. No timeline or top list has been set yet and Boehm plans on taking some time to make his decision.

March 19th Visitors:

Here's the names that I have confirmed so far that will be in Ann Arbor this coming weekend.

Ohio OL Kyle Dodson (6'6", 315 lbs): Michigan is making up lots of ground with Dodson. He says that the history and the coaches have him excited. 

Mass LB Camren Williams (6'2", 215 lbs): Making his decision in June so this visit will be big for Michigan. 

Mass ATH Armani Reeves (5'11", 185 lbs): Teammate of Camren Williams, very excited about the visit.

Michigan LB Royce Jenkins-Stone (6'2", 215 lbs): This is good for Michigan to get Royce back on campus. He's seen his recruitment take off offer-wise and Michigan needs to solidify their position.

Ohio DE Pharaoh Brown (6'6", 220 lbs): It will be good to get Brown on campus this early. He could end up being a key prospect down the road.

Maybe Ohio TE AJ Williams (6'6", 260 lbs): Williams was trying to make it in this past weekend but couldn't. He's now trying to reschedule for the 19th, but doesn't have anything set in stone yet.

Extra:

• Illinois OL Dan Voltz will be making his final decision tomorrow [Tuesday]. Since he didn't end up visiting, I'm sure you can draw your own conclusion from there.