spoiler alert: i linked this
Prediction for Northwestern: The FEI Forecast for this Saturday is Northwestern 22 – Michigan 21 with a 52% Probable Win Expectation for Northwestern. Another toss up game? NSFMF! FEI is wrong yet again and M wins this one 31 —13. M has the #3 ranked Strength of Schedule and NW is #69 in SoS. In National statistics, M & NW are ranked about equal in scoring offense (#50 & #53) but M is ranked #13 in scoring defense with 16.8 PPG and NW is ranked #43 allowing 24.2 PPG.
Michigan's offense continues to be excellent (4.81 PPPo) against poor teams (AFA, UMass, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota) but has struggled (0.90 PPPo) against every good team (Alabama, ND, MSU, Nebraska). Northwestern would be classified as a poor defensive team.
Fremeau Efficiency Index: Not much movement in the FEI. In the detailed chart below, GE represents the raw data for FEI before adjustments for opponents. M is ranked #28 in GE and overall FEI is #34. This seems about right since M has lost 3 of the 4 games to their highly ranked opponents.
The S&P Ratings (Also from Football Outsiders) is a play based analysis (rather than possession based) and M is ranked #20 overall, #19 in offense, and #20 in defense. The S&P ratings DO include games against non-FBS opponents (go figure).
The FEI is a drive based analysis considering each of the nearly 20,000 drives each year in FBS vs. FBS college football. The data is filtered to eliminate garbage time (at the half or end of game) and is adjusted for opponent. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams (win or lose) and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
National Rankings: The rankings for offense and defense are based on scoring (yardage statistics are inherently flawed). These are simply raw numbers without any adjustments for opponent, garbage time, or anything else. The data is from TeamRankings and includes only games between two FBS teams.
FEI Details: Here are the FEI numbers for Michigan and their opponent ( Football Outsiders FEI ).
Points Per Possession: Cumulative PPPo is 2.5 for the offense and 1.5 for the defense. M finished 2011 outscoring opponents by almost a 2:1 margin with PPPo for offense of 2.8 and defense of 1.4. The 2 charts show the raw data for offense and defense with the number of possessions adjusted for "kneel downs" at the half or end-of-game (maximum deduction = 2).
Using Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense National Rankings for the past 5 years (FBS AQ teams only), this table shows the percentage of teams that finish the season with a +WLM and a +5 WLM. For example, teams that finished in the Top 40 in both offense and defense had a 100% chance to be +WLM and an 82% chance to be +5 WLM (9-4 or better).
It's Michigan versus Minnesota week, at Minnesota, which means one thing. A University of Michigan quarterback is going to have a career day. In 2008, Nick Sheridan was 18 of 30 for 203 yards and a 127.8 QB rating. In 2006, Chad Henne was 17 of 24 for 284 yards, 3 TDs, and a QB rating of 211.5. That may not have been his best performance, but I don't ever remember seeing a QB rating greater than 200. In 2003, John Navarre was 33 for 47 for 353 yards and 2 TDs. During my college years, we put up these scoring numbers at Minnesota: 49, 52, 58, and 44 ('89, '91, '93, '96.) I guess what I'm saying is, we shouldn't have been surprised by what transpired yesterday, but after that first quarter, I'm betting that I'm not the only one that was shocked by the next three quarters. After 9 consecutive TD-less quarters, we scored 5 in the next 3.
Burst of Impetus
* We stopped Minnesota early on a 4th and 1, but promptly turned the ball over on an INT, so net impetus = 0.
* Michigan started the 2nd quarter trailing Minnesota 7-0, with the ball at our own 9 yard line, due to less than special special teams. Rawls got the ball for 4 of the next 5 plays, and we pushed the ball out to our 34. However, the drive was about to stall as we faced 3rd and 17 from the Minnesota 45. Gardner was chased out of the pocket, did some Gardner things, and found Dileo WIDE open in the end zone. Boom, 7-7. The team collectively took a deep breath, regained their confidence, and controlled the impetus for the rest of the game.
* Minnesota had a chance to get right back in the game in the 3rd quarter, but decided to run a fake FG on 4th and 16. It would have been a great call on 4th and 1 or 2, or even 5, but 4th and 16?
* 22 Michigan defenders recorded a defensive stat, lead by linebackers Kenny Demens and Jake Ryan with 10 and 9 tackles, respectively.
* Our one sack was from a patented Jordan Kovacs heat-seaking-missile style blitz that also forced a fumble. Unfortunately, that was the only pressure on Minnesota's QB, as Michigan registered 0 QHs.
* Michigan recorded 7 TFLs, led by Ryan with 3. He returned to super-human status this week.
* Floyd had 2 pass breakups and Morgan had 1.
* Minnesota was held to only 275 yards total offense. However, they managed to eek out 21 first downs from those meager yards.
Ermahgerd Dehrvern ERMAHGERDNER
* Gardner threw an early INT, but then settled down. That's what experience will do for you.
* He finished 12 of 18 for 234 yards and two TDs passing.
* Gardner also ran 10 times for 21 yards and a TD, but subtracting sacks he was 7 for 44, for a healthy 6.3 YPC. He also showed an ability, time and again, to make the first tackler miss.
* For anyone who thinks height is overrated in a QB, the Devin/Denard case study should be exhibit A. I got the sense that Devin's height allowed him to see open receivers better, particularly on the bomb to Dileo.
Bunches of Funchess
* Michigan receivers had long catches of 47, 45, 47, and 22 yards. It was that kind of day.
* Jeremy Gallon caught four balls for 72 yards and a TD. Chris Martin of the B1G Network continuously criticized Gallon for being inconsistent this season. Has anyone in the MGoUniverse felt like that? Where did that comment even come from? I wouldn't make a big deal of it, if he only said it once, but he must've come back to that three more times during the telecast. Did someone tell Martin that Gallon was a pre-season All-American, or something? I just don't get it. I'll take Jeremy Gallon on my team any day.
And Justice for Rawls
* Is Thomas Rawls our new #1 running back? Except for Toussaint's last run, I'd have to say yes. Rawls had three more carries than Fitz, and they were about even in yards until Fitz' last run. Granted, I'm just a casual fan watching from home, but I see Rawls break tackles, move the pile, and fall forward for extra yards. I see Fitz getting brought down by the first defender he faces.
* Fitz, Rawls, and Gardner all ran for TDs.
Norf and Souf
* Ugh, where do we begin. Our net yards per kickoff was 33.8. Their net was 43.7. Our net punt was 29.3 yards. Their net was 41.3. So every time we had an exchange of punts or kickoffs, they gained the equivalent of a first down.
* Even Norfleet comes in for a little blame this week, as he brought one kickoff out of the endzone that he should have downed. We had a penalty on the play and started the drive at our 9. When you are starting a new QB in the 9th week of the season and he's been practicing at WR all year, I want to give him every chance for success. Starting from the 25 instead of the 9 could have been a big advantage. However, it didn't matter this week as we had scoring drives of 91, 90, 86, 79, and 50 yards.
* Jerry Kill did not appear to agree with a pass interference penalty against his gophers. I hope the lip readers at home weren't easily offended. I tend to think that shoving a WR with both hands in the chest, and then grabbing an arm to prevent the receiver from reaching for the ball is pass interference, but maybe that's just me. The refs may have felt bad for Jerry, because they appeared to give the gophers three make up call PI penalties on a drive later in the game.
* Memo to the B1G Network: No more Chris Martin, please. And by the way, a 45 yard TD pass does not count as a Red zone score. You actually have to be in the red zone for that to occur.
* Minnesota had some great names, lead by Martez Shabazz and their kicker, J. Wettstein. Sorry Minnesota, no little brown jug for you, but at least you have a wet stein. Lincoln Plsek caught a pass, now he just needs to buy a vowel. And Cam Botticelli made three tackles. Somewhere, Elaine Benis is asking why I'm writing about her shoes. (I know that's a stretch, but I had to continue the sitcom theme we've been exploring this year.)
* How about a little game theory from ItBS. Why did Minnesota spike the ball with 16 seconds and two timeouts left in the first half? They proceeded to throw two incomplete passes and miss a 55 yard FG with 2 timeouts still in their pocket. Also, I'd normally agree with Kill going for it on 4th and 1 early from our 40, but under the circumstances, I think you punt the ball and keep the pressure on Gardner.
Outside the Boxscore
* I spent a lot of time last year discussing our myriad uniform combinations - throwbacks, shoulder stripes, pink accents, helmet numbers, etc. Fortunately, I haven't had to go there this year. But I did notice something on the base of the Minnesota players' helmets. It says "Ski-U-Mah." Being the inquisitive sort, I started looking into the origin of this. It dates way back to the old tongue of the Sioux nation. Apparently, Ski-U-Mah is Sioux for "Man without jug."
(fact checkers, knock yourselves out, am going purely off memory)
I walked by the TV my Dad was watching, asked him who was playing. Michigan – Ohio State. About 60,000 in the stands, not a vintage year for UM or Ohio. I watched maybe 3 plays. We lost.
In fact, one week that year Notre Dame, Indiana, and Purdue were all ranked in the top ten.
Purdue, Minnesota, yes, and, Indiana all tied for first. Purdue having gone the year before, it was ineligible for the Rose Bowl.
Next tie-breaker: who went most recently. The Gophers actually subbed for the Buckeyes in 62, when the faculty vote went against Woody, as they saw no reason why Ohio should go out west to play UCLA, having already whomped UCLA out there in the regular season.
Or, maybe they just did not like Woody. You decide.
So, Indiana made its only trip. I believe they were the first second place Big Ten team to lose the Rose Bowl.
That was back in the days when you could rake up the leaves, pile them on the drivewaway, and burn them. Even in the suburbs.
And only one or two UM games were televised each year, so, tend the burning leaves and listen on the radio.
Now, I am a serious Michigan fan.
Now a football player myself, having been way over the CYO weight limit in grade school, with high hopes of running through the tunnel in four years.
The good? I did start both ways.
The bad? We lost all out games.
Listening on the radio. In the upstairs of the neighbors' garage.
UM dropped the opener to Cal, at home, but has won 8 straight.
The Buckeyes are undefeated, consensus #1, the super sophs, who could not play the year before, freshman being ineligible.
Kern. Tatum. Stillwagon, et. al.
Close at the half, 21-14 Ohio.
Then, the roof fell in at Columbus.
48 for Ohio, and Dr. Strangehayes goes for two.
My hatred of Buckeyes begins. Unabated to this day.
I did not know it, but my career had peaked, having been called up to the championship varsity team for a cup of coffee. Though not playing.
My Dad buys us tickets for the showdown.
This is a juggernaut Buckeye team, defending national champs, going for the Big Ten record for consecutive conference wins. They enter the game having never trailed, for even a minute, the entire season.
17 point favorites.
A win sews up back to back titles, as the Rose bowl no repeat rule is still in effect.
If UM wins, they go to the Rose Bowl.
Though WJR sports director Bob Reynolds announced during the week on his 6:15 p.m. Daily radio show that the conference Ads had already voted to send UM
The game is not nationally televised.
My first UM game was a 7-6 loss to Georgia, I think 1965.
(The next time an SEC team ventured north of the Mason-Dixon line was Alabama at Penn State last year.)
I also saw Ron Johnson's record setting performance against Wisconsin in 1968.
Don Canham has taken over as AD and hired Bo when Bump Elliot retired.
Seems hard to believe these days, but NO ONE was marketing college football.
ABC did not even pretend to show the best game each week, and limited the appearances a team could make in one year.
A couple of years later, they telecast Indiana at Wisconsin, 9th and 10th in the league at the time.
Wisconsin won to break a long losing streak, and the fans tore down the goalposts.
So, Canham advertised tickets in Columbus. And sold about 40,000 to Buckeye fans.
I remember having to stop on 94 westbound at 23. Solid Buckeye traffic.
One charter bus covered in a gray blanket with scarlet letters:
Today: Michigan. Tomorrow: The World.
We are there early and seated in plenty of time, for the first sellout of a non MSC game since, who knows.
The Buckeyes score first. They kick the point, but UM is offsides, so Strangehayes goes for two. And misses.
So when we score and kick the point, for the first time that season, Ohio is behind.
Turns out, they were not a come from behind team.
Our 24-12 halftime lead holds up, scoreless second half.
The crowd counts down the clock, the players hoist Bo on their shoulders, and the upset of the century is complete.
And a legend is born.
This time, I sent in for two tickets, take my Dad for his birthday.
One morning he sees in the paper that the game is already sold out, and ruefully apologizes for having missed the boat.
I am delighted to tell him we are covered.
The super sophs are gone, so Ohio is in a rebuilding year. They lose at home to Colorado, MSC, and to Northwestern.
Don't laugh. If you read our media guide, Northwestern was the only ranked team our 11-0 squad beat that year.
The Big Eight reigned, as Nebraska finished #1, Okalahoma #2, and Colorado, losing only to #1 an #2, finished 3rd in the polls.
Why I remember this stuff. . . . . .
So, ten and 0 UM up against 6-3 Ohio. Rose Bowl trip is already sewn up, with narrow win at Purdue the week before.
We trail 7 -3 before getting our only touchdown.
"Touchdown! BIlly Taylor!" one of the most played Ufer recordings. Sprung by a block by FB Fritz Seyferth. What is forgotten is that Fritz made the 4th and one the play before that kept the drive going. As well as scoring our only TD in the Rose Bowl, a 13-12 loss to Stanford.
The Buckeyes are driving when we make the pick that drives Strangehayes into one of his tantrums, breaking the down markers.
We complete an undefeated season.
Overview: the 70s
Bo lost his first game to Sparty. Woody lost at Ann Arbor in 69, 71, tied in 73, and lost in East Lansing in 72 and 74.
He won all the rest of his conference games all those years, plus 1968.
After that MSC loss, Bo lost only to Woody until being upset by one team per year 76-78, and Woody went until a 78 loss to Purdue before losing to a non-Michigan based Big Ten school.
These records will not be duplicated.
And if you think the Big Ten is bad now, after Purdue fell off around 72, the Big Two and Little Eight featured an extremely weak Little Eight.
The way the schedule works, this game is after thanksgiving.
The Ohio game sells out early, again beating my Dad's ticket order.
To get him into the game, I buy the student season tickets of a bunch of friends who are not going to the games.
Back in the day, no student ID required. Students paid half the full price for tickets.
So, I found myself with a bunch of tickets to the other games to sell, and ended up in the ticket broker business through 1981.
So, for the first time, both teams enter the game unbeaten and untied, 10-0.
I am sure I can make a fortune selling tickets on the street the day of the game. But, most students are still home for the holiday weekend, and you can get tickets for face value or less. Another lesson in humility.
Bo gambles early with a pass, which is picked off.
I am told that Bo would say to Woody before the game, “I'm running right. Try and stop me.” Talk about predictible offenses.
Having listened to the replay on WTKA a few years ago, I was struck by one statistic: Ohio penalties: zero. Zip. Nada. Not a one.
Down ten zip in the fourth quarter, fourth and one, as Ufer says, everyone knows it will be Shuttlesworth up the middle, but, No! Franklin takes the ball outside and bootlegs untouched into the end zone!
The crowd reaction is the loudest noise I have heard in my life.
We hold them, get the ball back, and drive for a tying field goal.
And my Dad says, not likely we can score three consecutive possessions, after being shut out all day.
This is the game the Michigan player called time out after an incomplete pass, or out of bounds play. Bo was not happy.
Lantry missed about a 57 yeard FG near the end, but we students all assumed we were going to the Rose Bowl. Ohio had been the year before, conference records even, head to head even.
I was driving home from Ann Arbor when I hear the result of the athletic directors vote. 6 to 4 to send Ohio. By rule, a 5-5 vote would have sent Michigan.
Dennis Franklin broke his collarbone during the game; the Ads did not want to lose to the Pac Eight again in the Rose Bowl, so they voted to send Ohio.
I had trouble maintaining control of my car.
I will see Bert Smith in hell, or know the reason why.
And Ohio went on to beat USC, 42-21. We would have one that game.
I was planning on going to the game in Columbus, but sustained an injury in MSC's victory over Woody.
I was in the student section with my friend, the last time I wore green and white, actually.
Ohio unbeaten, untied, and number one in the country.
13 to 9 Ohio, with a couple minutes left. The punt pins Sparty back at his own 12 yard line.
In a daring call, on first down, Denny Stoltz sends his fullback, Levi Jackson, off tackle. He goes 88 yards for the touchdown. 16-13 MSC leads.
I am thrilled! However, thrilled as I am, I am even more inebriated and am unable to negotiate a landing after jumping in the air, twisting my left ankle.
I was, literally, feeling no pain.
No OT in those days. Woody drives all the way down the field to the one yard line.
No tying field goal for him.
No timeouts. Ohio snaps the ball, one official throws the flag. One official is waiving his hands, snap not off in time, game over. A third official signals touchdown when the Ohio running back crosses the goal line.
It took an hour for the outcome to be determined, as most of the crowd waited. Big Ten commissioner Wayne Duke is at the game, and, the powers that be eventually determine that Sparty has, indeed, pulled off the upset.
My friend abandons me to join the crew that carries off the goal post, to a pre-arranged site where it is cut into souvenir sections for the organized team. Which had pulled off the same feat after the 1972 upset of Ohio.
His brother assists my limping ass back to the dorm.
I forget how I got back to A2; I know I did not drive.
One of my roommates took me to U hospital.
I was sure my ankle was not broken, because I could wiggle my toes.
However, when the doctor moved my foot to the left, I screamed.
When he moved it to the right, I screamed again. When he moved it up, the same result was produced. When he pushed it up, I turned up the volume all the way.
In a cast for a month. No trip to Columbus.
So I watch on TV at the SAE house. Up 10-0 in the first quarter. Awesome.
The defense holds Ohio to four field goals.
We move down for the game winning attempt on the last play. And, the kick was good! Way higher than the upright, and called, no good.
The Denny Franklin years are over, my first 3 years at UM, 30 wins, 2 losses, one tie.
No bowl games.
An approaching low pressure system will keep the clouds around, but we'll have temps reach into the 40s with light winds. Not bad for a November day of football in midwest!
If you're headed to Minneapolis...
Might see a flurry or two if you're out and about early, but those chances deplete as you hit sunrise. Chilly morning despite the very light winds - mid 30s by 8am, but the wind chill will still have it feeling a bit cooler-closer to 30 degrees. Fill your travel jug with some hot coffee! Overcast skies, with maybe a peek of the sun here and there.
39 degrees for the start with cloudy skies. Winds are out of the east at about 5mph. Despite the light winds, bundle up because the wind chill will have it feeling like 35.
We'll continue to see a lot of that cloud cover stick around, seeing a glimpse here and there of the sun. Temperature has gone up just a bit to 42, but expect the wind chill to have it feeling around 38. Winds are out of the east-southeast at 5mph.
Hitting near the high as you leave the game, reaching 45 degrees, wind chill about 40. Still keeping mainly overcast skies into the overnight hours, with light to calm east-southeast winds. Temps drop to 40 around dinner, and then into the 30s after 10pm. If you're staying out late, the cloud cover drops after last call and we'll see partly sunny skies for Sunday. Have safe travels if you're headed to the game, and go blue!
If you're staying in Ann Arbor...
High pressure keeps us in beautiful weather for the start of the weekend. Mostly sunny skies with high temps around 45 for lunchtime. Winds are out of the north-northeast at about 7-8mph all day. If you're headed to dinner after the game-temps drop to 40 by 6pm and low 30s by 10pm with mostly clear skies. Keep in mind the wind chill won't have it feeling above 40 and at night it will feel like the upper 20s-so grab that extra layer if you'll be out late! Go blue!
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI, and temporarily for NBC25 in Flint/Saginaw, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
a bit late, let me know if there are any errors. scribd is a bit wonky right now, so no embeds. short on time this week, so a bit light on the "notable games" portion.