Diaries

We're going to be getting a lot of great content from Brian and Ace here as well as Dylan over at UMHoops to prep us for the matchup against Texas A&M, but once A&M went up 15 at the half I got excited and wanted to see who they are, hence this post.

*Disclaimer: I have not watched any film so much of my analysis could be wrong and currently is just educated guessing based on Torvik's profile. Please correct me on anything I am wrong on.

*Slight edits thanks to MH20 and other added info as of 9:15 PM, 3/18/18.

Texas A&M - Resume

• 22-12, 9-9 in conference, 11-2 non-con
• 24th on KenPom, 65th AdjO and 8th AdjD (Post UNC game, thanks to MH20)
• 24th on Torvik, 54th AdjO and 8th AdjD (Post UNC game, thanks to MH20)
• 7-6 vs Q1, 6-3 vs Q2, 4-1 vs Q3, 4-0 vs Q4
• Beat Providence 73-69 in R64
• Beat UNC 86-65 in R32

Good Wins: WVU (N), OK State (N), PSU (N), USC (A), Buffalo (H), Missouri (H), Arkansas (H), Auburn (A), Alabama (H)

Bad Losses: LSU (H, A), Miss. St (H)

 

Texas A&M - High Level Overview

I gave their KenPom and Torvik ranks above. I'll be using Torvik for the rest of the data since it's free.

The first thing you notice about AM is they're incredibly streaky. They started the year 7-0 and 11-1 in the non con, beating the first 5 teams listed above and only losing to Arizona on a neutral court. 

They followed that up with 5 straight loses to start SEC play, then back-to-back wins and back-to-back losses, then 4 straight wins, 3 straight loses, 3 straight wins, a first day loss to Bama in the SEC tourney, and then the two NCAA wins to get here.

Obviously based on the past two games it seems like they're on a hot streak so lets hope the 4 days off and location change put them on the cold side.

Defense

Looking at their in depth Torvik profile, it's pretty clear that defense is their calling card. They have the 12th best eFG% defense in the nation, a top 35 3P%, 2P%, and FT% D, as well as a top 60 FT rate defense. The one thing they don't do is turn people over with the 317th best TO% in the nation, and they are also an average defensive rebounding team.

If you look at their conference only stats though, their D is a lot less effective. They go from a 93 AdjD rating to 95.8, which was 9th best in the SEC. That 95.8 would be tied with Rhode Island for the 45th best AdjD in the nation over the full season. Comparatively Michigan has an 89.7 season AdjD rating and a 92.5 conference rating.

The rest of their defensive stats drop as well. eFG% goes from 46.5 to 48.9, TO% drops slightly, OR allowed % goes from 27.9 to 29.6, FT rate goes from 28.8 to 32, opponents 3P% goes from 32.4 to 36.2, and 2P% goes slightly up from 45.3 to 46.

They do an average job of allowing 3's as 37.5% of opponent's shots were 3s this season (186th in the nation), although this dropped to 35.9% in conference. 57.3% of opponents makes were assisted this year on the season (293rd in the nation), which dropped to 48.9 in conference.

So what does this all mean? Well most team's see a drop in production conference play as competition level goes up, but with A&M a lot of this is probably related to their streakiness as well.

The constants here though are that they don't turn you over, allow offensive rebounds, and allow a lot of 3's and assists. These all seem like things Michigan can exploit so lets hope Michigan does, our offense wakes up and they are on a cold streak.

Offense

On offense the Aggies are a lot more consistent. They had an AdjO of 112.4 for the season and it dropped to 112.2 in the conference. In almost every area they're pretty average-below average except for a few. 

The one area they excel in is offensive rebounding. They rebound 34.3% of their misses for the season, 22nd in the country, and that dropped to 32.9 in conference. 

The only other area of note is their shooting, which is bad. They shot 32.8% from 3 as a team (283rd in the nation) on 33.1 3P shooting rate (286th in the nation). In conference their shooting % dropped to 30.5 while the rate rose to 33.9. 

A&M shoots 66.4% from the line (319th in the nation) on a 32.5 rate (204th in the nation). In conference this percentage dropped to 62.1% (over 6% points worse than Michigan's conference FT shooting percentage) on a 33 FT rate.

Texas A&M - Player Level Overview

All of the advanced stats are against Top 100 competition only

A&M is very big dominant as you may have guessed/already know. They've been playing 8 guys in the tournament so far and 4 of them are 6-9/6-10. They also play a 6-7 G/F along with 2 6-4 G's along side a 6-2 G.

*Left out of this is 6-3 Sr G Duane Wilson, who is 2nd on the team in useage with a 25% useage rate but is out for the season since Feb.

Lets start with 6-10 Jr Tyler Davis. Davis was first team all SEC. Davis averages 14.5 PPG, 9 RPG, and 1.3 blocks a game. He has a shooting split of 58/28/63 on very few 3 point attempts. His ORTG is 113.9 with a 23.5% usage rate. He does everything pretty well offensively you'd expect from a big with a low TO% although doesn't shoot well. His rebounding numbers stand out as great.

The next guy is 6-10 So Robert Williams. Williams was SEC DPOY and is a potential lottery pick. He has a pretty similar profile to Davis, 10.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG. He shoots 62% from the field, 46% from the line and hasn't made a 3 all year. He has an ORTG of 108.5 on 20.2% useage. The rest of his profile is also very similar to Davis, except for his slightly higher TO% and his sky high block%, which is over double Davis' with an 8.8% block rate. Like Davis is also a great rebounder, but especially on the defensive end

The highest useage guy on the team is 6-2 Fr G TJ Starks. He has a 29.2% useage rate with a putrid 88 ORTG. He averages 9.7 PPG, 2.2 APG and 2 RPG on 39/33/64. He doesn't shoot well from 2 or 3, doesn't get to the line often and when he does he struggles to convert, and he doesn't rebound well. He does have a good AST% (21.6) but offsets that with a higher TO% (25).

The guy with the best ORTG (115.3 on 17% useage) and should be the lead guard is 6-4 Jr G Admon Gilder. He averages 12.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 2.6 APG on 46/40/82/. He's the only guy on the team shooting above 34% from 3 against Top 100 opponents and one of 2 guys who plays major minutes that's above 66% from the line. He's pretty much average in every other area advanced stats wise.

The other decent shooter and last starter is 6-9 Jr DJ Hogg. He averages 11.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 2.5 APG on 41/38/73. He has a 106 ORTG on 17.4% useage. Like Gilder he's not just a 3P shooter but that's what he does best and he's fairly average at everything else, although his rebounding his significantly worse than the other two bigs mentioned.

All of these guys get at least 52% of available minutes vs top 100 opponents. The only other guy who plays starters minutes is the last big guy 6-10 Sr Tonny Trocha-Morelos. He averages 6.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG and 1.2 APG on 41/31/59. He has a 104.3 ORTG on 15.8% useage. He seems to be more of a stretch big as against Top 100 opponents, he's attempted 66 3s to 79 2s, although he only hits 32% from 3. He has a decent block rate and low TO rate but very average rebounding numbers, like Hogg.

The last two rotation players are 6-7 F Savion Flagg and 6-4 G Jay Jay Chandler, both Fr. Chandler doesn't do anything well yet uses almost 20% of possessions of the floor with an 86.4 ORTG, while Flagg is pretty average except for his above average OR% keeping his ORTG at 101.5. Flagg plays more than Chandler but both are rotation guys.

Texas A&M - Takeaways

So despite the murder of UNC we just saw, I actually think we match up well with A&M. Like I said/showed, they are a bad 3P shooting team and while they're a decent 3P defending team % wise, they don't do a great job of stopping teams from shooting 3's. In this game A&M shot 42% from 3 on 24 attempts while UNC shot 19% on 31 attempts. I don't think we'll see that again from them on Thursday.

One of their biggest strengths defensively is their size. They are a great shot blocking team because of their length/athleticism. That being said, we won't generally be attacking their bigs one-on-one in the post. Our ability to spread them 5 wide should mitigate that advantage by opening up the middle for guards to drive and score.

Related to that, A&M by their profile seems to be a much more traditional big oriented team. They don't have a stretch big (minus Trocha-Morelas who seems psuedo-stretch at best) which bodes well for us defensively, but even more so when we're on offense. Their bigs are going to have the come to the perimeter to guard Mo/Duncan where they probably aren't comfortable. If they don't, and try to clog the lane, we'll have open 3's for days. Once they do come outside I would think they'd struggle defending the perimeter. If they try to switch everything Z will be matched on a big where he can use his quickness to his advantage or Mo will have a small guy to post up on. I also don't think the bigs will be great at defending the pick and pop so Mo should have a lot of open looks there as well. 

One thing we've heard a lot about is what a great job Michigan does at creating a shot disparity between us and the opponent. This seems like another game where we can do that, as A&M doesn't turn people over or do a great job of preventing them. Hopefully a big advantage an be created here for Michigan.

The only good part of A&M's offense is their OReb, which they will use to try and reduce that shot gap I mentioned. However we just played a great OReb team in Houston (33.8% compared to A&M's 34.3%) and held them to a 26% OReb rate. Similarly we have had great success in that department against MSU, one of the best OReb teams in the nation. Houston and MSU could both shoot the 3 great as well, while A&M generally doesn't so the guards should be able to sag off a little and help here as well. I think we should be able to mitigate this one strength of A&M.

The biggest struggle for us will be guarding the post. Davis and Williams will both be tough to handle down low, especially since Wagner isn't a great defender. It might be similar to Haas vs Wagner. A&M can make their mark and win the game down low. Unlike Purdue, however, A&M doesn't have 4 sharpshooters surrounding their bigs so we can help on Davis/Williams. My guess would be a lot of perimeter guys coming to swipe at the ball during post ups and some doubles like we've seen Beilein do to Ward before. Hopefully drawing them away from the rim on defense and abusing them on the perimeter will force A&Ms hand to go small as well.

The last advantage is coaching. I'd take Beilein over all, but especially over Billy Kennedy who's made 4 NCAA tournaments in his 18 year coaching career and only one previous Sweet Sixteen, where he lost.

I'm not going to make a prediciton, but I really like this matchup for us.

The rock fight was on -

from the very first shot.

The Cougars were ready

the Wolverines, maybe not.

 

The man-bun was covered

by Z's excellent D

but the Z(ebras) corralled

what Moe Wagner could be.

 

Back and forth

forth and back -

Wouldn't ya know?

The game was tied at the half.

 

Surprise switching defenses

call for halftime adjustments.

In the second half we would see

what had been hatched

by the staff and coach B.

 

Heavy weights thunder

under staggering blows.

How would it end?

Surely, no one knows.

 

The announcers say - no jive!

The difference in score -

except for a brief time -

has been no more than four -

when the Cougars, of a sudden,

go up by five!

 

Matthews hits a three!

Wait - there's a foul underneath.

On the Cougars, this time

and I howl in relief.

Teske again - four for four from the line.

Will not be his fault

if we lose this time.

 

But the Cougars can't miss

their free throws from the line.

8 for 8 in a row -

will he now make it nine?

 

No! The first shot does not go

but he makes the seond.

We now trail by two, 20 seconds to go.

MAAR brings the ball up the court.

He has improved throughout his career,

especially this, his senior year.

 

But his shot fails to fall -

do not fear!

Matthews grabs the rebound

and tips the ball in -

Not!

It rims out

in Morganesque fashion.

As, once again, the Wolverines

just fail

to cash in.

 

Scramble for the ball

as in great pain I shout.

Zebras blow the whistle.

Matthews

fouls out.

 

Down two, 2 shots coming.

Houston heads to the line

3.9 seconds remain

with the game

on the line.

 

The first shot clangs off.  Oh my!

This means that, at least,

we can go for the tie.

 

The second shot in the air

my heart sinks to my feet

on the verge

of despair.

 

But it clangs off too!

Moe skies for the rebound

and gets the timeout

before his feet touch the ground.

 

Trailing 63 - 61, the odds way against us.

Coach B in the huddle

the last play to discuss.

 

High school baseball player Isaiah Livers

stands at the baseline

winds and delivers

to midcourt,

a fastball

to MAAR -

he sure can throw far!

 

3.6 seconds left when he catches the toss.

MAAR dribbles toward the basket

two Cougars converge

to force the loss.

 

MAAR stops -

Who is open?

Not 3 point whiz D. Rob.

Fouled out, on the bench, suppressing a sob.

 

The freshman Poole, ever cool,

hands signal

"I'm open!"

MAAR quickly passes to him.

He squares up to the rim

though his legs splay wide,

the form, it is great!

The defender's body check arrives

a split second too late.

 

Flat on the floor, 

he can't see

that his shot dropped through the hoop

delighting coach B.

 

The bench celebration tells Poole

watch out for your teammates, try to stay cool.

 

The team chases, led by Wagner, in hot pursuit

He circles the gym

Moe spots a downcast Cougar -

and stops to console him.

 

A St. Patrick's Day miracle,

it was just meant to be.

Jordan Poole's name now goes down

in March Madness history.

 

This Wolverine fan

could not be any prouder.

His voice is now shot -

couldn't have yelled any louder.

 

This game goes down

with the best

I have seen.

 

It is

always great

to be

a Michigan

Wolverine.

 

 

 

*NOTE: Corsi numbers now UPDATED and correct.

OFFENSE

	Corsi	House	Possession %
First Period	12	3	44%
Second Period	20	14	48%
Third Period	13	6	42%
Overtime	3	0	75%
TOTAL	48	23	48%

Analysis: So, I cannot comment on the Corsi because I don’t know what it looks like with the power plays taken out. I am pretty sure this will be relatively accurate as I don’t remember Michigan registering many power play attempts on net.

It was not one of Michigan’s better offensive games by volume, but they had a number of good chances. Quinn Hughes was unbelievably unlucky tonight. He hit the post twice and barely missed the net on another wide open shot from the slot. The DMC line was dominant. When they were on the ice, OSU struggled to get the puck out of the zone, gave up many good looks at the net, and struggled to skate. As the lines filtered down, OSU’s chances increased.

The Wolverines didn’t have an overwhelming offensive performance, but they played well enough and created enough chances to win. Sean Romeo just played up to his standard, and Michigan drew an unfriendly post. Also, Cooper Marody’s goal in the second period might have been the Goal of the Year. He grabbed the puck, dropped it, got tripped, twisted his body, and roofed it over Romeo.

[More after THE JUMP]

Cutler Martin has never shied away from crushing Buckeyes [Bill Rapai]

Corsi Table

	Game 1	Game 2	Game 3	Game 4
Michigan	57(17)	53(19)	43	55
Ohio State	69(25)	57(21)	23	31

Hmmmm. What can we extract from all of this? Michigan is 0-4 against the Buckeyes this season. During the first couple of games, Michigan was in the midst of its defensive crater. As you can see, in the second series in Columbus, Michigan had a much better possession rate. In Game 3, they gave up two power play goals (surprise!) and at least one odd-man-rush goal. The final game was pretty even, but Lavigne had a woofer or two. Also, Michigan has scored on Sean Romeo six times in four games. Eeeeeeck. So, where are we now?

Ohio State Preview

	PWR	Corsi	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 PPG	GAA	Save%
Michigan	7th	23rd	18%	76%	8	3: Marody, Calderone, Hughes	2.78 (Lavigne)	.910 (Lavigne)
Ohio State	4th	16th	24%	91%	3	4: Jobst, Laczynski, Weis, Joshua	2.08 (Romeo)	.925 (Romeo)

Ohio State is really good. They do not give up goals; they’re 4th overall in goals/game. To pair with that, they’re 11th in scoring goals (Michigan is 7th!). So, they put pucks into the net, they keep pucks out of the net, they convert on the power play, and they do not surrender goals on the penalty kill. Also, Sean Romeo is Cale Morris Lite. What is this, football?

So, what is there to do? I don’t know, man. It’s encouraging that Michigan was able to control play in the last couple of games down there. They’re going to need to play their best, most well-rounded game of the year. Also, as much as I disagree with the single-game semi-final format, hooray that Michigan doesn’t have to beat them twice!

[After THE JUMP: qualifying Michigan's most well-rounded game of the year and a look at PWR and relevant teams around the country]

Rooting Interests: Tournament Week

Remember the many years we spent refreshing ESPN’s Bubble Watch only to be disappointed when the Tommy Amaker led teams landed in the NIT? A few years later that disappointment turned to joy when we landed a 10-seed in 2009, or an 8-seed in 2011. Now we spend our time refreshing Bracket Matrix, retweeting Ken Pomeroy and endlessly justifying our two-seed over MSU and other Midwestern squads.

As of this writing, Bracket Matrix has Michigan a 3-seed and the 12^th overall team, the AP Poll has the Wolverines seventh and Ken Pomeroy has the squad ranked ninth.  Of course, none of those guarantee anything come selection Sunday. And while the committee has an obligation to put the top 16-teams as close to home as possible, that may not be logistically possible with MSU, Purdue, Cincinnati and Xavier all so close. Thankfully, other sites in Nashville and Pittsburgh give us hope.

Here are a few other things to root for this week: (note, I left out a lot of games that could impact RPI. Of course we want CMU to win the MAC and a bunch of other things, but I tried to focus on bigger games)

 

Monday

San Francisco over Gonzaga
San Francisco is so bad, chances are you don’t know their nickname. Okay, they aren’t that bad. Currently 18-14 and 4^th in the WCC. Also, they are the Dons and everyone on their team is named Don. Maybe. Anyway, Gonzaga is a top-10 Ken Pom unit but a 5 in the matrix. Not a huge threat at the moment but wouldn’t it be cool if they lost anyway? Yes it would. Also lets root for BYU over St. Mary’s because we don’t need Gonzaga to beat a top 25 team this week. Maybe it won’t matter anyway, but why take the chance.

Edit: The Dons lost. Badly. But CMU won its first round matchup vs. Bowling Green. The No. 8 seed in the MAC plays No. 1 seed Buffalo on Thursday.

 

Tuesday

Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
There is like a .1% chance this happens. Pittsburgh is a winless piece of trash. But what better way to devalue MSU’s early season win over Notre Dame. The Irish were banged up all season sure, but this wouldn’t hurt.
Edit: Holy crap ND only won by three!

Anyone over Gonzaga or St. Mary’s
See above. Tuesday would be the WCC finals.
Edit: Gonzaga beat BYU

 

Wednesday

California over Stanford
Simply for RPI purposes to get Penn State to 75 and Quadrant 1.

Anyone over North Carolina
While they beat Michigan head to head, they are a two seed in the bracket matrix. Losing early to a bad team could drop them. The winner of Syracuse/Wake Forest awaits and upset here would do the trick. If this doesn’t happen Wednesday, we again root against UNC Thursday when they play Duke

Texas over Iowa State
We want the Longhorns to play themselves squarely in to the tournament. Currently projected as an 11-seed by the Bracket Matrix but with some wins, a more quality victory for UM. Also can help on Thursday.

 

Thursday

Duke over UNC
If (when) UNC wins Tuesday, they get Duke again. A loss here doesn’t hurt that much, but doesn’t help either. Likely not enough to drop them behind UM. Root for a 42-point loss, here.

Some Trashbag Team over Xavier
Hopefully woeful St. Johns beats also woeful Georgetown. I only say this because St. Johns stormed over a few top teams earlier this year. A win vs. Xavier could bump the Musketeers down a peg in the pecking order before selection Sunday.  

Texas or Iowa State over Texas Tech
Here’s where things get interesting. The Big 12 has a lot of teams around Michigan. And while Kansas or Texas Tech aren’t necessarily competing for the same region as Michigan isn’t it just easier if every other team loses? Of course, if top Big 12 teams start winning, they can rack up quality wins. Texas Tech could stay on the three line or move up. Same with other teams like West Virginia. Texas Tech getting knocked out early wouldn’t hurt.

Baylor over West Virginia
See above.

A team from Oklahoma Over Kansas
See above.

Colorado or ASU over Arizona
On the other side of the world, but also on the 4-line. Jumping Michigan with a conference title could happen. Things are gotten get sweaty either way (that’s a Sean Miller joke).

LSU over Miss. State
We lost to this LSU team in what feels like three seasons ago. It would be cool if they won four games in four days and made the loss look less bad. Also would be cool if Northwestern could go back in time and beat like four ranked teams.

 

Friday

Anyone over West Virginia or Texas Tech
Here’s where it REALLY gets interesting. While the Big 12 is still not in the Midwest (unless we are talking football expansion – bring on Oklahoma, and go home Rutgers!), we want TTU and WVU to lose. Since Kansas is on the one-line, we would root for Kansas over either team here. All things considered, if Kansas can’t win, then we maybe want Texas Tech because WVU is closer to the Midwest and we want to stay ahead of them? Honestly, this is complete guess. I have no idea.

Anyone over Xavier
This one is the conference semifinals, so not likely that a loss here would drop Xavier at all. But there are no Big Ten games to watch, what else are you going to do? Root against these guys for fun.

SMU or UCONN over Cincinnati
Maybe the UCONN women will show up and be beating Cincy 43-5 like happened in the first half of the women’s tournament on this evening (Monday). Cincy losing would be great to help position Michigan better on the two-line and keep them home.

Tulane or Temple over Wichita State
It is only fun to root for Wichita State when it is at the expense of another team, like Kansas, Kansas or Kansas. If Tulane or Temple can win, we can avoid a Wichita State/Cincy rematch which could propel a team higher.

LSU or Miss. State over Tennessee
If LSU makes it here we have two reasons to root for the Tigers. It makes Michigan look incrementally less bad, and Tennessee could get further away from the two-line opening up Nashville for another school. UT is currently on the three line, one spot above Michigan. Having them lose would definitely move Michigan up in some brackets.

Alabama or Texas A&M over Auburn
This would be a prime matchup to unclutter the top of the standings even though Auburn is in the South. But directions don’t matter to your rooting interests. Just root for the underdogs won’t you? Auburn like Tennessee is on the three line so if both lose it is triple good because it is always good when the SEC loses at things.

UCLA/Stanford or ASU over Arizona
Same as above. We just don’t want Arizona to get hot because first, Sean Miller will get sweaty and second, we want Michigan to be no. 1 in the standings and no. 1 in our hearts.

 

Saturday

Anyone vs. Cincinnati
It’s getting late early in the AAC semifinals. If Cincy wins here they will be well positioned against UM no matter what. And even a loss here may not be that bad unless it is against a terrible team – like if Pittsburgh somehow gets relegated to the AAC in the next 5 days.

Anyone vs. Wichita State
Somewhat the same as above.

Random SEC Yokels over Auburn and Tennessee
Auburn and Tennessee are on opposite sides of the bracket so they could both end up playing on Saturday and Sunday. The further they go the worse it is for Michigan. So if they can lose to some terrible team that got hot (Georgia?) then that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If both teams make the finals, I don’t know what you root for. Maybe a player walkout/NCAA protest?

 

Sunday

Cincinnati vs. Wichita State
If this happens, I think we want Cincinnati here. While it wouldn’t be ideal for Michigan, we also don’t want to get jumped by Wichita State. I’m not sure it would happen, but this is MGOBLOG, we plan for the worst!

Ken Pom/Bracket Matrix over the Committee
We know Ken Pom loves him some UM. But will the committee? Let’s hope so.

TLDR: Root for all the underdogs unless Kansas and Cincy get hot in which case, root for them to beat down other solid squads like Wichita State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.

Ol’ Dex struck goals…twice [Bill Rapai]

OFFENSE

	Corsi	House	Possession %
First Period	15	7	50%
Second Period	24	10	49%
Third Period	13	4	33%
Overtime	n/a	n/a	n/a
TOTAL	52	21	44%

Analysis: Much, much better from the Wolverines tonight, as they tallied six (!) even-strength goals (seven with Slaker’s empty-netter). They eviscerated the Badger defense, getting into the slot and House with ease and finishing their chances.

The DMC line was crushing Wisconsin on the forecheck and Dancs tied the game early after scooping up a loose puck in the House. Becker and Warren added jammer goals down low. Dancs had a snipe as the second period ended, and Luce flung a puck at the net from the blue line that also got through Berry.

One of the keys coming into the series for Wisconsin was to have one of their goalies steal a game. That did not happen at all. In total, they gave up 12 goals on 57 shots for a save % of .790. That’s not going to win many games or series. Michigan went into Clear, Dump, and Change Mode with a three-goal lead and Wisconsin threw the kitchen sink at the net and pulled their goalie with over four minutes left. That’s why there’s such a discrepancy in the third period. Close Corsi ended up 27-26, Michigan.

[More, including the goal of the year, after THE JUMP]