Diaries

Ed Tipper was born in Detroit on August 3rd, 1921.  Born into the false prosperity of the 1920s and grew up in the Great Depression as a part of the so called “Greatest Generation.”  Although he spent part of his childhood in Ireland, he spent most of his youth in the city of Detroit.  In High School he was the Captain of the football team, class president, but had "spotty grades" and was known for getting into mischief.  He aspired to attend the University of Michigan, but didn't get in.  So instead he worked at a department store doing deliveries.

On December 7th, 1941 he was visiting Dearborn Village with a friend to see history on Henry Ford when the bus stopped - the driver made an announcement and turned on the radio - Pearl Harbor had been attacked.  Ladies in the bus started crying and Ed Decided instantly to join the Marines.  The Marines turned him down, due to having a severe overbite, so instead he joined the US Army and volunteered for the paratroopers.

He trained at Tocca, became a bazooka man, and became a part of what would become the famous Easy Company of the 506th within the 101st Airborne.  He trained for over 2 years before finally seeing combat on June 6th, 1944 - D-Day.  He landed behind enemy lines and helped take out German positions that were firing onto Utah beach.  He would see action every day from June 6 up until the Battle for Carentan, which begun on June 10, 1944.

In Carentan, Ed Tipper and his fellow paratroopers were ordered to clear the houses.  On the very first house that Ed came to he kicked in the door.  They were under orders to throw grenades into the house before entering, but he was out of grenades from fighting in the preceding days so he went in gun first and looked for Germans.  The house was empty as he made his way to the back door and peered out into the back yard of the house.  Seeing a shed, he called out if anyone was inside and when he got no response he put 3 shots into it.  He made his way back to the front of the house when the Germans sprung their trap. 

At once, mortar shells started dropping on their side of Carentan.  8 to 10 paratroopers were instantly wounded.  Shrapnel hit all over Ed Tipper.  His right eye was gone, both legs were broken, and he had dangerous shrapnel in his left knee, right hip, and left elbow.

Fellow paratroopers, Joe Liebgott and Harry Welsh risked their lives as the shells rained down to stop Ed's wounds from bleeding his life away.  His wounds were so severe that it required a year of hospitalization and the men of Easy Company thought that he died. In fact, when he stopped by in 1945 to visit fellow paratrooper Floyd Talbert's parents, Floyd told his parents that it had to be an impersonator, because he was still having nightmares from having seen Ed Tipper die from an exploding mortar shell before his eyes.

While recovering from his wounds, Ed Tipper started thinking about his failed dream of attending the University of Michigan and became determined to make something of his life that had been spared.  So he applied and was rejected a 2nd time.  He set up an interview with an admission's officer to ask what he could do to get in.  When the University official saw him in a wheel chair with two damaged legs, a damaged arm, and a missing eye from having fought in Normandy - he gained admission almost instantly on the promise that he would work hard at his studies.

He fulfilled that promise, making the most of his dream at the University of Michigan by earning high marks.  He then went to the University of Northern Colorado to get his masters.  He was told that he would never make it as a teacher, having only 1 eye, as the kids would misbehave more...he says that never happened.  He regained use of his legs and arm - although not to the same extent as pre-war times.

He was of the rank Sergeant when he was wounded in Normandy, still suffers from occasional WWII related nightmares, and has received the "Legion of Honor" medal from France for his fighting from June 6 - 10, 1944.

Ed Tipper taught for over 30 years, he is faithfully married, and has a very successful daughter that is his pride and joy.    His memory is fading away as he enjoys retired life in Colorado.

If you have ever seen the mini-series Band of Brothers, Ed Tipper’s character is seen in the first 3 episodes.  He also features heavily in the documentary for the miniseries titled “We Stand Alone Together.”

Future Non-Conference Opponent Recruiting Watch – Class of 2014

A big end of spring for Michigan future non-conference foes in the recruiting game is led by the Cincinnati Bearcats, who double their class size to 8 and surge to #38 in the 247 Sports rankings.  Colorado also gets on the board, while a couple offensive line additions to the BYU class come too late to factor into the updated 247 composite.  Now for a closer look at what happened, with bonus: recruits' city & state of origin added!

New verbal commitments since last update (May 26):

·         May 24: Colorado adds OL Isaac Miller  (not reported as of May 26)

·         May 28: Cincinnati adds DT Joel Thompson

·         May 29: Colorado adds LB Grant Watanabe

·         May 31: Cincinnati adds DE Spencer Williams and Raashed Kennion

·         June 6: Miami adds DE Mack Duffin, Hawaii adds OL Sully Wiefels

·         June 7: Ball State adds WR J-Shun Harris

·         June 8: Cincinnati adds OG Nathaniel Devers, BYU adds OL Austin Chambers and Chandon Herring

Composite Chart

Notre Dame (2014, 2015) – 10 commits, overall star average: 3.85

No changes for Notre Dame.   

Cincinnati (2017) – 8 commits, overall star average: 2.50

The big mover for this stretch is Cincinnati, which adds OG Nathaniel Devers, DT Joel Thompson, and DEs Spencer Williams and Raashed Kennion.  Scout rates Casey Gladney and Hakeem Allonce as 3-stars.

Utah (2014, 2015) – 5 commits, overall star average: 3.00

No gains or losses for Utah.  Scout rates Kenyon Frison and Raelon Singleton at 3-stars.

Arkansas (2018) – 4 commits, overall star average: 3.38

No changes for Arkansas.

Brigham Young (2015) – 7 commits, overall star average: 2.54

BYU adds OL Austin Chambers and Chandon Herring (who, with that name, really ought to have signed with a coastal team).

Colorado (2016) 2 commits, overall star average: 2.50

The Buffs finally get off the schnide with Texas linebacker Grant Watanabe and in-state OT Isaac Miller.

Hawaii (2016) 5 commits, overall star average: 2.16

Hawaii picks up a commitment from 3-star offensive lineman, and all-name team candidate, Sully Wiefels. 

Ball State (2016) 3 commits, overall star average: 2.17

Ball State gains the commitment of wide receiver J-Shun Harris.

Oregon State (2015) 1 commit, overall star average: 2.50

No changes for the Beavers.

N.T. Miami (2014) 1 commit, overall star average: 2.0

The Redhawks land their first commitment with Indiana defensive end Mack Duffin. 

UNLV (2015) 1 commit, overall star average: 2.0

No changes for UNLV.  247 Sports still refuses to acknowledge the commitment of JuCo offensive guard Doug Saeks.

Jack Torrance State (2014)

                Still no commits for the horrors.

I will not use an Outback Bowl pic, because uniformz

Devin Gardner replaces the most exciting--and perhaps most-liked--player in Michigan history.  The QB-turned-WR-turned-QB got his first chance to lead his childhood favorite for Michigan's final five games in 2012, and did so with stunning success.  For 9-out-of-10 halves, the Michigan passing offense was more efficient and more potent than it had been in years, with the only stinker coming in the second stanza of the Ohio debacle.

Against three ranked teams (NW, OSU, and South Carolina), Michigan scored 38, 21, and 28 points--and the 21 all came in one half.  Michigan converted a ridiculous 56% of their 3rd downs with DG running the offense, which would have been good for #1 in the country.

The question: Is a five-game stretch during which the offense was a transitional patchwork of schemes and strategies from the Borges-Denard Fusion Cuisine model a good sample from which to predict DG's 2013 production?

The answer to that question is almost certainly NO.  The reality is that only one game--the Outback Bowl--offered enough time for the offense to install a pro-style attack, and even for that game the unique talents of #16 were significantly altering Michigan's tendencies.  So...where might we find a decent sample?

How dare he wear red

I'm not going to pretend Ryan Lindley is a perfect comparison: Lindley was a three-star recruit with offers from SDSU and...Idaho.  He played in the Mountain West and never faced a team like Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio, or South Carolina.  But there are some similarities, and perhaps most importantly:

Al is clearly excited he can still get his fist in front of his belly

The 2010 Ryan Lindley was the QB for a 9-4 SDSU team--roughly the average (or just below average) expectations for the 2013 version of the Wolverines.  This is important, because a team losing a lot of games will throw more, and a team winning a lot of games will run more. /broad generalization

In 2010, the Aztecs (that's San Diego State's mascot) threw the ball 426 times and ran it 439.  That's a 49/51 pass/run ratio, which is, like, really balanced.  I expect Michigan to look similar this year, and perhaps be slightly more run-heavy since that seems to the strength of the young O-line (and it's easier for young guys).  By comparison, in the five games where DG was QB in 2012, Michigan ran the ball 59% of the time, even though three of those games were extremely close.  The Outback Bowl was more balanced, but still had to get #16 more involved, and finished with a 45/55 pass/run ratio.

Back to Lindley.  He is similar to DG in that he is very strong-armed but maybe not as accurate as you'd like.  DG is more accurate, and far more athletic, although Lindley moved decently and could throw on the run.  I don't think Borges will call the plays that differently, but may coach DG to run a bit more when the lanes are there.  Here's Lindley's 2010 stats:

That would be the best passing season in U-M history (yards and TDs), and by some distance (499 yards and 3 TDs).  SDSU had two very good receivers who accounted for 136 (56%) of the team's 244 receptions and 67% of the teams passing yards.  In fact, their third leading receiver (by yardage) wasn't a receiver at all--it was RB Brandon Sullivan (26 rec, 383 yds).  The number four guy was a TE named Gavin Escobar, who is now in the NFL and racked-up 29 catches, 323 yards, and 4 TDs.  I mention that because I believe those numbers are least we can expect from Funchess this year, and because I believe we'll have much more receiving production from our backfield.

Here are DG's numbers from last season, actual and extrapolated:

Even with the extrapolations, DG has nearly 100 fewer attempts than Lindley did.  Again, I expect that to change, and would guess that DG will probably throw the ball 350-400 times.  Michigan ran 820 plays in 2012, and I believe blowouts will allow DG to sit out a few quarters, giving around 20 attempts to other QBs.

The 2013 U-M version of Borges' WCO seems unlikely to have two near-equal WRs atop its receiving chart.  Jeremy Gallon will likely lead all receivers, but Borges has a long history of having two primary WR targets in his offense, and that is good news for Amara Darboh.  I expect that whoever emerges as the #2 WR will vastly exceed expectations and have at least 40 grabs.  Of course, Funchess could take on that role, but that hasn't been the Borges pattern.

So what happens if you extraploate DG's numbers with another 50 attempts or so?  Really good stuff:

Those stats would have made DG #16 in yards, #2 in yards/att, #9 in TD passes, and #8 in QB Rating nationally in 2012.  He would still rank #66 in att/game, so we're not talking about a pass-happy offense.

In terms of Michigan history, that would be #1 in passing yardage, moving well ahead of Navarre's 3,331 in '03.  It would be #1 in TDs, well ahead of Henne's 25 in '04.  And it would be tied for #4 in completions.  But before you say, "No way does DG set single-season records in yardage and TDs his first year as a starter!" consider this: DG's extrapolated 2012 numbers would make him #2 in yardage and #1 in TDs--and that was running a watered-down version of Borges' WCO.  Even if you bump DG's yds/att down to Lindley's 9.1, you still finish with the #1 passing offense in U-M history, with Devin throwing for 3,412 yards.

This is obviously not a perfect prediction, but it is reasonable to believe that DG has a very good chance of having one of the best passing seasons in Michigan football history.  Before you get too excited about that remember this, too: Lindley's '10 Aztecs went 9-4.

[ED: Bump!]

So I went to the Midwest Coach's Tour, aka "Sports-O-Rama," tonight in Chicago, hosted by the Chicago Michigan Alumni Association. We had a wonderful time, hearing from Brandon, Hoke, Beilein, Kim Barnes Arico (Women's basketball,) and Hockey Asst Coach Brian Wiseman.

It was a great night, and a lot of fun. It was clear they had rehearsed and done this before, as this is the end of a 10 day tour, starting on the West Coast. (Brandon asked Hoke, for instance, "Did you really say that Notre Dame was chicken?" To which, Hoke answered, "I did.") They all had a good time, were happy to be there, and took a number of questions from the crowd. The only hard question had to do with Michigan's APR, which was low last year, and lower this year. We're abysmal compared to ND & Northwestern. (football is 7th in the Big 10 in ranking.) Brandon didn't quite say "answer to the hand," but close. His basic answer was, come back to me again in four years and ask the same question. The rolling average makes it very difficult to overcome students who do poorly four years back.

Afterwards, the coaches went to different locations, to take questions, sign autographs, take pictures, etc. The lines were ridiculously long for Hoke and Beilein, understandably so. I waited a bit to talk to Brandon. The first thing I'll say is that he was very personable, approachable, and not defensive at all. You can see how he is great for the position of AD. Here are a couple things he said.

• Adding Maryland and Rutgers is not just about TV dollars today. They both certainly open us to the New York, Baltimore, DC markets. But more than that, the problem is projected population growth. According to Brandon, the midwest is flat to declining in the number of people. Projecting out 10 years, the SEC & ACC are seeing significant population growth in their footprint, while the traditional Big 10 footprint is stagnant and stable. Adding the two new teams helps mitigate against this population trend.
• In the future, 12 noon starts will be extremely rare for Michigan (except maybe for Ohio.) TV drives everything, and they want as many night games as possible, and late afternoon games as possible. Teams in the bottom half of the conference will be relegated to 12 or 12:30pm starts. Michigan will almost always have an afternoon or evening start time.
• Brandon is working hard to schedule better non-conference games. A number of teams  are ducking Michigan, even when offered very significant money (I think Toledo would be one of these.) We already have a home and home with Arkansas, and with Virginia Tech. Expect an announcement on a home and home with a major West Coast team in the next couple weeks. (USC? UCLA? Stanford? Oregon? I'm guessing Stanford.) ND is at least 10 years, maybe 15, before being regularly rescheduled.
• The door is open for Chris Webber. He is the only one of the Fab 5 not to reach out to Michigan. (Obv., there were limitations until recently on his contact with Michigan.) But Brandon is willing to talk with Chris, if that's what Chris wants to do.

The highlight of my evening, by far, was an unexpected discussion. Three of us were getting ready to head out. As we were walking, I looked over at Laura, and said to the two guys I was with, "I want to say hi to Laura Hoke." She was incredibly personable, sweet, talkative, and approachable.  Obviously, you don't ask Laura bubble screen questions. (sorry, Heiko.) But she was just a fount of information. We went all over the place, and I'll try to remember some of what she said.

• The coaches and wives are extremely close. Hoke and Mattison were together at Western Michigan for 5 years, overlapped several years under Carr at Michigan, and are back together again. Hoke and Borges got along very well at San Diego. They all just get along, and enjoy each other's company. I can really see how the wives getting along fosters the family atmosphere recruits have talked about. Every school says they're a family:  Michigan really is.
• The wives sometimes join their husbands in recruiting. (And they have to be reminded by coaches to talk to recruits and recruit's moms, not to each other.)
• Laura told a story about talking to Pepper's coaches and parents, just making small talk. They assumed she was part of the staff in some capacity, asked who she was, and she said, "oh, I'm one of the d line coach's wives." At which point, one of them figured it out.
• I asked whether it was Hoke or his grandchild that brought Mattison to Michigan. She said, "Both (citing the friendship.) She also said, "Mattison really didn't enjoy the NFL the same way he enjoys the college game."
• I asked how long Borges and Mattison would be there. She said, "Forever. They're not going anywhere." Seriously, as long as their health holds out, I think Borges and Mattison will stay at Michigan. I think their wives don't want to go anywhere else, especially Mattison's wife.
• I asked if Brady ever encouraged one of his staff to take a promotion to coach elsewhere. She said, "Well, the ONLY coach to ever leave Brady's staff was Montgomery." That's an incredible statistic, and speaks of real loyalty.
• I mentioned that Da'Shawn Hand has talked about how "real" the Michigan coaches are, not putting on a show, just regular folks who enjoy life and care for each other and the players. That he liked the "family" atmosphere. Laura told me another story. She mentioned that a recruit had come to Michigan, and had also visited another school down south, who really "put on the red carpet." The recruit's mom was very impressed by the red carpet treatment, and Hoke's attitude was, "that's not us. We're not doing that for anyone. We are who we are." The recruit eventually went to the school down south. I thought to myself later, that recruit must have been Treadwell. I could see that if Mississippi really pulled out all the stops, treated recruits like royalty, that would impress some of them.
• Brady doesn't ever do negative recruiting. He just shares about Michigan and their resources, and Michigan sells itself.
• I asked Laura what was the hardest part of recruiting. She said, "It starts so early, and it never stops." Laura said, "if a five star recruit [her words] comes to campus, what are the coaches going to do? They're going to go to the office, show the recruit around, spend time with him." With unofficial visits happening all the time, you NEVER are off as a coach or a wife. She said they'd get a couple weeks of vacation in July, but that's it.
• Laura (like Brady) is very open. Brady shared again about his bad choices his first two years at Ball State. This really shapes how he cares for the "105 sons" who are on the MIchigan team. On this area, Laura had very high praise for the academic support team, and how proactive they are in helping Freshmen before they get on campus, and the minute they're on campus.
• I asked Laura about Football Saturdays. She said that they were a lot of fun. They have as many as 50 family members sleeping over Friday and Saturday night in their home.
• Laura really enjoyed the Senior Leadership training in California last week. The Seals did their thing, Laura was able to visit friends in San Diego, the team got to see the Rose Bowl (and picture being there,)  and the Seniors did their football clinic for kids in Pasadena. Brady had nothing to do with it:  the seniors needed to organize drills, and make the whole thing happen.

I hope you all get the opportunity to go to one of these things sometime. What a great couple Brady and Laura are. Just seeing her and Brady, I can see why the summer Barbecue would be so successful. And what a treat to hear her perspective on football at Michigan. She so clearly is having fun and enjoying this.

I will stand by the essence of what I said, although this is all from memory, and so it is not word for word. There was way more that happened, but this already is far too long, and gives you a taste of the evening.

Michigan's two recent pickups—including, y'know, a universal five-star, NBD—strengthen their position at the top of the Big Ten recruiting rankings. While the teams in the upper half of the conference are still adding commits at an acceptable rate, the bottom of the conference is, well, not.

But, hey, Indiana is on the board! Good for them.

Changes since last rankings:

5-15-13: Wisconsin picks up Billy Hirschfeld.
5-16-13: Northwestern picks up Blake Hance. Rutgers picks up Justin Herron. Wisconsin picks up Ula Tolutau.
5-23-13: Ohio State picks up Dante Booker. Rutgers picks up Kamren Lott.
5-26-13: Michigan picks up Jabrill Peppers.
5-28-13: Northwestern picks up Fred Wyatt.
6-1-13: Michigan picks up Chase Winovich. Penn State picks up Noah Beh.
6-2-13: Maryland picks up David Shaw.
6-3-13: Iowa picks up Omar Truitt.

Chart? Chart:

*Full rankings and explanation here.
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.

NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.

On to the full data after the jump.

Dr. Hamlet III, consensus 6 star recruit

For the 2013 signees, the average Michigan commitment occurred on April 16th. The only other years a program has bested that average was in the heyday of the Texas Junior Days. This year has been a bit slower than last but that was almost certain to happen. In fact, prior to last season, Michigan’s previous earliest average commitment was for the 2012 class when the median decision date was in mid-July.

Jabrill Peppers’ commitment brought the 2014 class up to ten commitments (excluding Brady Pallante from the 2014 numbers). Barring an unlikely wave of Rodriguez level attrition the 2014 class should be over half way to an 18-19 member class.

The Seasons of Recruiting

Over the last five years, here is how the top ~500 recruits for the class have committed by commitment month:

The recruiting cycle typically begins slowly in March, sees a bump in April (Spring Game commitments?) before dropping back in May. The start of the summer sees another increase as players are typically between school and fall camp. The activity really dies down through the heart of football season before ramping up over the final three months of the cycle. The median Top 500 recruit typically commits sometime in August.

Michigan is clearly still ahead of this cycle for the 2014 class, even if they are behind last season’s breakneck pace.

Class Comparison

Comparing 10 commitments mid-cycle isn’t a truly valid comparison but just to see how this class has compared to Hoke’s other classes I did it anyway.

A consensus top 10(ish) and a consensus top 100 sure help out the curve. The top end of the 2014 Michigan recruiting class has already been established as the best during Hoke’s tenure in Ann Arbor. The rest of the group is a bit behind the last two years but that is mostly due to comparing a whole 10 member class to date versus the top 10 from prior seasons. The fact that the comparison holds up as well as it does speaks to the start the coaching staff have had to this cycle.

So where does this project out to? I projected an 18 player class with the following players adding their names to Project135.

Da’Shawn Hand

Malik McDowell

Parrker Westphal

Unknown Top 150 Defensive Back

Unknown Top 150 Wide Receiver

Unknown Top 500 Offensive Lineman

Unknown Top 500 Running Back

Unknown Top 500 Linebacker Chase Winovich

Wide receiver and defensive back both have several strong options still on the board and a top level rating was assumed. For linemen, linebacker and running back the options are bit less clear and I projected more of a 3/4 star borderline type of player. Westphal and McDowell are both consensus Michigan leans and Da’Shawn Hand is strong possibility and why not!

The top end of this potential class is a clear step above the 2013 class and equal in the middle. The drop at the tail end is a combination of small class effect and some conservative estimates on the remaining unfilled positions in the class. Continuing with the annual “Everything in the Offseason is a Positive Thing” theme, a minor lag in the tail end of the class isn’t a bad thing. To me it can be an indication that the staff is actually evaluating talent and looking for players they want as opposed to opening up the 247 composite rankings and offering down the list. 

Top Class Potential

Not to be the burster of bubbles but it ain’t happening. This class will be too small to have a shot at the overall title. Over the last twelve cycles Rivals has only had 10 classes ranked in their Top 10 with fewer than 20 commitments. Only 2007 (2nd) and 2009 (4th) USC have managed to crack the top 5. To have any shot attrition will have to force the class size into the 20s and even then it will probably take 22-23 to make it happen.

Is this a negative thing? Not really. You sign the best players you can with the scholarships taken from scrubs you have. When you look at the projected curve above, Michigan has a good chance to pull a better top 18 rated players this year than last. Rivals rated those 27 recruits #5 in the nation and this year’s might struggle to beat that rating with 18 players that are considerably better than the top 18 from last year’s #5 class. Michigan won’t win the top class ranking but that doesn’t mean they might not have the best class come February.