further adventures in Jed York being unsuited for his position
Random?? If turnover margin (TOM) is truly random, then it would seem a relatively pointless exercise to even track this statistic. So, as you might suspect, my analysis indicates turnovers are not primarily random. Here is Michigan's TOM for the past 14 years.
This does not appear to be simply a random result. And, if TOs are random then RichRod was undoubtedly the most unlucky coach in history! I find it impossible to believe that the worst turnover margin over 3 years was just coincidently the 3 worst years of Michigan football ever.
2011 Review: Michigan went from a turnover margin of –10 in 2010 (ranked #109) to a +7 in 2011 (ranked #25). But, what you might not know, the improvement in turnover margin was entirely due to fumbles and not interceptions. M lost 57% fewer fumbles and gained 186% more fumbles. Interceptions, uh, not so good. Based on the number of pass attempts, M threw 47% more interceptions and intercepted the opponent 18% less.
Fumble Recovery Rates: Michigan had unusually high (i.e. good) takeaway and giveaway % in 2011 which resulted in a net of 9 turnovers in advantage to Michigan versus the typical rates of around 50%. If these rates had been around the expected 50%, the overall TOM for the year would have been negative (-2).
We should expect the fumble recovery rates to return to around to 50% and this will negatively impact the turnover margin for this year. However, the interceptions thrown as well as the passes intercepted were very poor in 2011 and that should be good news for the turnover margin this year. The experience in the secondary should also result in better performance. Overall, I expect the turnover margin to remain very good next year and into the future. Very good teams have good turnover margins.
for those of you who are new to the blog since last season, and those who are not. i make these little mini programs each week with various michigan and opponent information, depth chart, roster, schedule, etc. these are made to be folded and fit into one of those plastic lanyard neck things, if you are so inclined. they can be pretty useful to take with you to the game or bar or whatever (although, lanyard thing at a bar might not be that cool).
this is up a few days early, have a look, let me know what you think. this is a bit rough for now. i am considering putting in a big ten schedule grid in the future in place of opponent info.
(Click the image to view full size)
Four days until Arlington. Four days until Team 133 takes the field. It was very hard to keep my hand still long enough to draw this thing. Don't you just love that "last week of school before Christmas" feeling that kicks in right about now??
On Thursday Tom unveils his yearly opening day pregame ritual.
THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every Tuesday here at MGoBlog,
and at least every Thursday on its official home page. Also, don't forget to
check out Friday Roughs, a spontaneous low-end comic based on trending
Michigan events, available on Twitter and Facebook every Friday.
Recently a friend of mine (a software developer) was talking to his 11 year-old son about working on an iPad app together. My friend said to his son, "You know what skills you're going to need to learn if we do this, don't you?" To which his son replied, "Arts & crafts like Mr. Jeremy?" We had a good laugh about it but the truth is that I do find myself chasing arts & crafts projects as a changeup to the day-to-day work in my design & software business. So joke's on you, 11 year-old kid, I take that as a compliment!
I've been working for a few years on a Michigan football-related craft project: a wooden puzzle where the laser-cut pieces are hand painted to represent each B10 team and can be arranged in the order of the current league standings. I designed the helmets to match the two-bar face mask style from my 80's sticker books (and used by Steve Largent forever) because they are rad looking and because they will not be mistaken for a youth hockey helmet or space explorer headgear (unlike some contemporary football helmet styles). I'll probably never finish the puzzle project so I was happy to find a use for my original helmet and field illustrations. I added the stadium and Allen screws to lend structure, depth and detail to the image.
The images below are previews only. You can get the widescreen, iPad and mobile wallpapers at The Art. The Art. The Art!.
How it was made
The artwork was created in Illustrator (vector graphics) and Cinema 4d (3D extrusions, layout) with some help from Photoshop (wood textures, blur effects, color correction).
Some say the blobs on the beach of Mobile can be chalked up to the tar balls BP donated. In reality, it was the stain and sludge finally surfacing and left behind when Nick Saban crawled upon the shores of Alabama. The man has an automatic “Montgomery Burns” edition of automatic doors and a whole other string of players on medical redshirts. There is no doubt that after this essence of evil was suppressed by a lackluster program on the banks of the Cedar, his bad voodoo has been in full force. He has humiliated and tortured other teams in his conquest of the NCAA.
The man has a disgraceful persona so heavy that even he cannot celebrate his biggest wins. He retires to his lair and begins the planning of world domination after every game in the belly of a Greyhound bus. Michigan is coming from a complete different 270 degree position where they have not had the luxury of enjoying the knee knocking fear displayed on their opponent's face, but instead this once great program that suffered a great civil war and limped along in life. Then a man of mutant stature Hoke emerged from the killing fields of many MGoBlogger meltdowns, détente treaties, radioactive topics that were not safe to traverse in conversation, and a hungry loyal following. Jimmy Carter got booted for a said malaise in the country, as did another southern gentleman by the name of Rich Rodriguez for a football program in the same state.
What followed was thought to be as possible as Luxembourg touting a basketball team in the Olympics to defeat the U.S. Dream Team II. Regardless of the impossible odds of an 11 win season and a Sugar Bowl victory, Michigan did it. The offense had more control of the offense as to sustain lasting drives and the defense look as if they did cage fighting over the previous summer with Liam Neeson to toughen their resolve and TUFFness. As the season progressed, the team, the team, the team began to congeal into a deadly opportunistic football team. GoBo finally shaped the offense around Nard Dog’s strengths along with taking some pressure off him with a respectable running game. The juggernaut in a pumpkin carriage capitulated with a defensive victory over a team that would have taken Michigan behind the woodshed in years prior. The sugar poured, and the people roared.
My only logical and reasonable reasoning comes from last year’s Penn State and Alabama game. Alabama wasn’t coming off a National Championship, but heading into one. Given that Penn State was a heavy underdog in the souls of the Nittany Lion hearts same time last year, some of the more “hope for the best, prepare for the worst” crowd in Ann Arbor can relate to the angst and guttural fear of being more meat in the Saban grinder. Although Alabama controlled most of the game, the beating wasn’t as severe as once thought. Penn State suffered through the pain of dying a thousand paper cuts. Michigan’s offense is arguably much more dynamic and able to strike than the Penn State team of a year ago. There are some questions of holes being filled on the O-line and receiving corps. There is also a numbing knowledge of an almost certainly suspended Toussaint that could put the responsibility of winning the game on the lone shoulders of D-Nard. This could lead to the irisless peepers of the Crimson Tide defense on the same person. On defense, the anticipation of how well the D-Line will do without Mike Martin anchoring the buffet busters of 2011 is at its peak. There are glimmering prospects with Will Campbell taking advantage of a Groupon coupon to the Barwis Boot Camp training. The senior is a story in the making of a senior that finally gets what his place is in the team and becomes a one man tsunami on the defensive line. Craig Roh may also get to show that he saved the best for last.
With all the potential outcomes, I think it will boil down to a Michigan team with some questions on replacing key players and possibly being in a unfortunate position of actually having to deal with the new feeling of having a high bar that came unexpectedly last season. Can Michigan focus on having a whole new year ahead of them with the loss of an “us vs. the world” mentality they used as tacklin fuel last year? Can the holes be filled with the unknown and compete at an equal or even better level? These things will be made perfectly clear September 1st, 2012. I do think it is entirely possible for Michigan to catch a rusty and hungover Alabama team with stellar performances by their own offense and defense and pull a wet dream of an upset. But this is Alabama. Premier, Nikolas Saban at the helm. The man has created a machine that even would make Neo pee a little. It is for this reason of shadowy practices and ESS EEE SEE culture of moral fortitude in following every loophole that allows me to believe that a valiant attempt will come up short to the meat processing plant built in the West Nile infested swamp of Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It will however, be the very circumstance in where being wrong is much better than being right.
The Big Ten Recruiting Rankings returns after a two-week hiatus. Outside of Penn State's class continuing to fall apart, little of note occurred since the rankings were last posted; look no further than Indiana picking up the highest-ranked recruit in that span for evidence. Changes since the last rankings:
8-5-12: Minnesota picks up Jalen Myrick.
8-6-12: Wisconsin picks up Alex James.
8-7-12: Illinois picks up Reggie Spearman. Dorian Johnson and Zach Bradshaw decommit from Penn State.
8-8-12: Nebraska picks up Zach Hannon. Indiana picks up Myles Graham.
8-9-12: Nebraska picks up Jonathan Cook. Indiana picks up Antonio Allen.
8-10-12: Illinois picks up Martize Barr. Northwestern picks up Godwin Igwebuike.
8-11-12: Penn State picks up Jordan Smith.
8-12-12: Iowa picks up Matthew VandeBerg. Indiana picks up Chase Dutra.
8-18-12: Illinois picks up Miguel Hermosillo.
8-20-12: Purdue picks up Dwayne Johnson.
8-25-12: Michigan State picks up Demetrius Cooper.
|Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings|
|Rank||School||# Commits||Rivals Avg||Scout Avg||24/7 Avg||ESPN Avg||Avg Avg^|
^The average of the average rankings of the four recruiting services (the previous four columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly.
NOTE: Unranked recruits are counted as two-star players.
To eliminate any confusion about how the rankings are determined (to be honest, they used to be arbitrary), team order is determined by multiplying the number of commits by star average.
On to the full data after the jump.