Diaries

(Diarist Note: We're setting up a tailgate all day tomorrow at the Fingerle Lumber Yard (Fifth/Hill) with the family truckster, otherwise known as Wild Rover II, a mid-1990s model  Fleetwood Destiny mobile home. There will be a lot of people coming and going during what's going to be the longest tailgate day in our program's history. Everyone is invited to swing on by and chill if you're in the 'Hood.  If you cant figure out which ones we are,  just start yelling my name as you walk  by the rows of RVs. If you don't look too much like a gomer, then I'll speak up. I'll be up there by noon, drink in hand, watching and talking football. Also: Go to the JCB, play the Pick-4 and, well,  don't you think its about time you bookmark us or something on make us a regular read? )

Oh boy. It's here. Michigan/Notre Dame Week. NIGHT GAME WOO!!!!  It is always one of the more tense weeks for me on the football calendar. As a 30-plus year vet of Michigan Stadium, I can state there aren't too many other times the Big House is more tense and on edge then when its invaded by 15,000 loud, obnoxious and drunk Leprechauns. Add in the historic night game aspect, and I have been antsy about this game for months now. Thankfully, we'll be tailgating a stone's throw away from a liquor store.

I was born in the early 1970s and raised not only on robbery, but also on 1980s college football. That means I have a healthy--or is it unhealthy--dose of dislike, disdain and distrust of Notre Dame football. To this day, I get rankled more about their team and most of their fan base, more  than even Ohio State. Who am I kidding? I don't even have a problem (most of the time) with OSU fans.  They're all great employees. Heck, I am even kinda, sorta dating one of them right now. What can I say? She has HAWT tattoos.  But, they are all my neighbors, after all. There's a respect and a kinship to a certain degree when it comes to me and OSU fans.

But Notre Dame? That's a whole different ball of wax. Maybe it's all those losses highly ranked Wolverine squads suffered at the hands of the Irish when I was an impressionable lad. Maybe it's that douchebag Rocket Ishmail. Maybe it's that silly looking Oom Pa Loompa turned hero Reggie Ho. Maybe it was the cackling of my friends dad--a Toledo grad who adores Notre Dame because of his arch Catholicism--as Gillette's field goal swerved too far to the right in 1988. Maybe it's their liberal use of index cards to determine first downs. Maybe it's Paul Hornung winning the Heisman Trophy on a team with a losing record while some guy named Jim Brown got the shaft. Maybe it's their belief that God actually gives two shits about their stupid football team. Maybe it's because the Grotto is filled with piss water funneled in from Gary. Maybe it's because Rudy was offside. And a serial exaggerator. Maybe it's all the annoying Irish fans that decked themselves out in 49ers gear during the 1980s because OHMYGODJOEMONTANAISTHEBEST. Maybe it's because of that insufferable imp Lou Holtz. Maybe it's the ND blogosphere meltdown because they were playing a bowl game on Christmas Eve. Maybe it's because one on my favorite non MICH games ever was Miami 55, ND 7.  And BC 41, ND 39. It's a toss up. I could go on and on, but I fear I have already ruined the sweet, laid back image I have cultivated here on these blog pages over the years by letting some of this hate spill.

But, I love Michigan-Notre Dame games. Yes, the programs are on hard times. Yes, this is no longer the 1980s or early 1990s when these games annually were early season National Championship Semifinal contests. But the games remain special. The pageantry remains everything that is good about college football. And, have you seen their games recently? They provide us with crackerjack contests that go down to wire, that could be retold by epic poetry worthy of gridiron heroics. And, its the easiest game to bet on every single year. Take the points with the underdog. Don't think about it. Don't do any of those silly head to head positional breakdowns. Don't even try to measure the intangibles. Just book the underdog and save all the analysis for the postgame. Since the modern series resumed in 1978, the underdog is a dominating 22-5 ATS. The underdog has won this game more often straight up than the favorite. And routinely the underdog--really the winner of this game period--plays their best game of the season. Did the 1994, 2006, 2009 or 2010 Wolverines play a better game all season than their 'upset' wins over the Irish? How about the Irish? Did their 2004, 2005 and 2008 clubs perform better and win than they did when they upset the Wolverines those Septembers. The last time the Irish covered as a favorite in this series was 1982, coincidentally the first ever night game in Notre Dame Stadium. That's just the kind of symmetry that scares the pants off me when the stinkin' Irish are involved.

Regardless, Michigan is the underdog tomorrow, and, like the last two seasons, that is where my money will be come kickoff. Its the first of seven games already on the betting board for 2011 where Michigan is not only the underdog, but faces buckets of money being bet against them in the wake of the dismal Rodriguez years.  We'll find out tomorrow if all that dough that poured in on Notre Dame back in June to drive the initial line of Michigan -2 all the way to Notre Dame -4.5 in the span of a few hours was a good investment or not for all the Brian Kelly slappies in Wise Guy Land. Kelly is pissed at his QB? Wait until Rocko and Moe lose another game on your boys, coach. Then, you'll see anger. And 'For Sale' signs.  We bet against the Irish last week at the JCB and won. We're already on MSU +7 next week. And we're on Michigan tomorrow. Let the Fade Notre Dame Tour Of 2011 continue. I'd ask God for help, but he's got bigger things to deal with than football. Like trying to figure out how to cave all the Irish posters on His new blog. Even He thinks they're annoying.

While I promote the fact that no analysis is needed for this game from a capping standpoint, that doesn't mean we cant chat about the keys to the game through our own make believe prop board. So, without further adieu, here we go. Don't forget to play the Pick-4 at the JCB. And, for sure, swing by the Fingerle Lumber Yard tomorrow for some rooting, tooting good times.

Michigan vs Notre Dame, Second Quarter Score: Irish -3.5

This prop covers the second quarter score only. It is also one of the four Pick-4 props for the week at the JCB. If you aren’t playing the Pick-4, then what the hell are you doing with your time anyway? You're not that far behind after one week, so join in and play now while the season is still young. Getting back to this key to the game, why the second quarter? For me, its the true litmus test on the new coaching staff in Ann Arbor. Not how they use Denard, not can they cobble together a serviceable defense, not  can they teach anybody on campus to kick the ball. Nope. I am judging the new sheriffs in town by how Michigan does in the second quarter. A year ago? It was a fucking disaster. The Wolverines were thumped to the tune of 194-83 in the second quarters of their games last season. As a result, they rarely got to halftime in any important game in legit range of their foe. Can the new coaches change this? Can they make enough improvement on the field and hold games together better in the early going so that perhaps their talented Shoelace in the hole has a chance to win games in the fourth quarter. That's something that college football fans were robbed of last October and November: The chance to see Denard play with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. Michigan outscored their opponents in every other quarter a year ago, but by being drubbed by almost a 2.5 to 1 margin in the second 15 minutes torpedoed the whole season. Seven times they were outscored by at least 10 points in the second stanza. Michigan was able to tie UMass 10-10 in the second quarter, but the only team they beat a year ago in the second quarter was, guess who? The Notre Dame Fighting Irish. But, they needed an historic and magnificent 87-yard TD run by Denard to make that happen. A week ago? Michigan won the second quarter 20-3. A turnaround or just a fluke from playing a MAC team? In the first legit showdown of the season, I am as intrigued by how the second quarter goes down as anything else. Maybe its just an early round of Maize and Blue Kool Aid in advance of the weekend, but In Hoke I Trust. Let's win this second quarter MICH. From there, the game will be ours, I say.

Cierre Wood -15.5 rushing yards over Fitzgerald Toussaint

Fitzgerald Toussaint featured prominently in our mock props a week ago, when we asked readers to determine whether or not he would surpass his career rushing totals in the opener. He needed 88 yards against Western, but ended with only 80. Certainly this would have gone Over had, you know, a fourth quarter actually been played. Let's involve Fitz again, this time matching Good 'Ol #28  head to head with another tailback recruit from the 2009 class. Fitzgerald Toussaint vs Cierre Wood.  Toussaint was a Rivals 4-star recruit, the #8 ranked all-purpose back in the country coming out of high school.  Wood was also a 4-star recruit per Rivals in the 2009 class, but their gurus placed Wood in the 'running back' category as opposed to 'all-purpose back' as they did for Toussaint. Everybody wanted a piece of Wood as he held scholarship offers from USC, Auburn, Florida and Nebraska as a high school senior. It took a while for his career in South Bend to take off, but he found a groove in Brian Kelly's offense a year ago and it was his hard running, along with the GRITTY QB play of Tommy Rees, that sparked the Irish charge late last season that had everyone excited about this year's prospects. He didn't carry the football more than 7 times in any of Notre Dame's first six games of the 2010 season, but he pretty much evolved into their feature back down the backstretch, toting for double digit carries in six of their final seven games, rushing for more than 81 yards four times. The Irish may have  whiffed last week against USF, but not because of Wood, who surpassed the century mark for the first time in his career. The junior rushed for 104 yards and added 44 yards of receiving for good measure. He and Michael Floyd ought to give the Irish a tailback/receiver combo as productive as just about anybody else in the country.  In this battle of the stats, we have the 8th ranked all purpose back in the 2009, the 14th best player in Ohio that year in Toussaint going up against wood, the the 8th ranked tailback in the 2009 class, the 8th best player in California that season. Whichever emerging Redshirt Sophomore playmaker shines the most tomorrow night might tip the balance of this game.

Roy Roundtree O/U 6.5 catches.

We know a few things about Royland Roundtree.  He does a great Donald Duck, wakes up HONGRY, turnovers follow any pass he drops, he holds the Michigan single game record for receiving yards and is a great bounce back player. And that's what we're focusing on here. Every since he became a regular in Michigan's lineup during the final third of his redshirt freshmen season in 2009, he's rarely has back-to-back sucky games. A week ago, he wasn't much of a factor against Western Michigan, hauling in just two passes for 17 years. The four previous times in his career since becoming a regular that he caught three or less passes, he pretty much turned around and blew up the following week. After his less than stellar outings, he's bounced back to average 7.25 catches and 143 yards per game. This includes his eight catch effort, highlighted by the huge third down conversion, in last year's Notre Dame win as well the record setting performance in the Illinois win. Their wasn't really any pass catching stars for Michigan last week, but it was a game where that wasn't really needed. Somebody will have to step up this week, though, just because its a bigger game. Given his bounce back efforts, my money is on Roundtree.

Michigan -1.5 over Air Force

I know what you are thinking. Is JamieMac that much of a connected degenerate that he already has a line for next season's home opener against Air Force? No, really, I am not that connected. Degenerate? 50/50. But this is an actual prop offered tomorrow by sportsbook.com. They have a whole board of fantasy matchups pitting a pair of teams from different games against each other. San Diego State is -3 over Notre Dame. Can Hoke beat the Irish with both his new and old team? Talk about a chance at history, Brady! So, in the hypothetical matchup between the Wolverines and Fly Boys, Michigan is short 1.5-point chalk, which is ironic because Michigan isn't chalk right now in any actual game listed on the same book's future board. But they are favored in a game that they're not even technically playing. I blame Rodriguez. FIRE RICH ROD!  I am reluctant to play props like these. I have never done so, but man it sure seems like a fun thing to track. Air Force is playing TCU in the middle of the day on Versus. Well, unless Versus shows a replay of last week's Notre Dame instead. Other fantasy props of this ilk include Iowa -2.5 over Missouri, Penn State -1.5 over Boston College and Alabama -0.5 over TCU. Notre Dame isn't anywhere on this board, perhaps a testament to how scared books are at releasing too many lines that involve the major question mark that remains the Michigan defense.

That's all I got. Its going to be a fun day and night in Ann Arbor. Please, everybody be safe and defer to the side of good, clean fun. There will be a lot of the latter going on at the Lumber Yard, so if you're hanging around the 'hood, stop on by.

Go Blue. Fuck The Irish.

Previously: OT Tristan Nickelson, DE Taco Charlton

The "Introducing" series, which features interviews with up-and-coming junior recruits, continues with a look at Crete-Monee (IL) wide receiver Laquon Treadwell. The 6'3", 183-pound junior has a great deal of interest in Michigan, and will make a return visit for the Notre Dame game after coming to Ann Arbor for this summer's BBQ at the Big House.

Treadwell is teammates and good friends with 2012 commit Anthony Standifer, who will accompany him on his visit this weekend. As a sophomore, Treadwell tallied 58 catches for 811 yards and seven touchdowns as a wideout while also recording ten tackles for loss, six sacks, and five forced fumbes as a defensive end.  I caught up with Treadwell on the phone last night, and here's what he had to say about his recruitment, Michigan, and his goals for his junior season.

ACE: What are you looking for on your visit to Ann Arbor?

LAQUON: I'm looking to meet with the coaches, the guys who committed there, and just being down there with Anthony and seeing the game.

ACE: Have you talked to any of the other recruits besides Anthony?

LAQUON: No, I haven't.

ACE: Do you have any early favorites of the teams that are recruiting you?

LAQUON: Yeah, Michigan's a favorite.

ACE: What other schools have been looking at you?

LAQUON: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Vanderbilt, schools like that.

ACE: What does it mean for you to have your teammate, Anthony [Standifer], already committed to Michigan?

LAQUON: I think it's great. He thinks it's a great program, and I also think it's a great program, so I think it would be fun for both of us if I do commit there. I'm just looking forward to going down there.

ACE: What sticks out to you about Michigan? What do you like about the school?

LAQUON: I just like the whole new coaching staff, and they're all fun to be around and outgoing. [I also like] the fans, the fan support.

ACE: What would it mean to you in terms of your recruitment if Michigan were to extend an offer to you?

LAQUON: I think it would be great. It would be a big step in my recruitment. I think my family would be happy for me, and we'd sit down and talk about it.

ACE: I know it's early on, but do you have any idea about a timeline, when you'd be thinking about making a possible commitment?

LAQUON: I'm not sure right now.

ACE: Your team [Crete-Monee] is 2-0 right now. What are your goals for finishing out your junior season, and what are you trying to work on in your game to take it to the next level?

LAQUON: The team goal would be beating Moline this week, and if we get the win going undefeated on the season, winning the state [title]. The biggest thing I would have to work on this year, well, I'm not sure.

ACE: Well, what would you say are your strongest qualities as a player?

LAQUON: Making people miss and catching the ball in traffic.

Thanks to Laquon for taking the time after his practice to do the interview, and I'll keep you updated on his visit and recruitment -- it certainly sounds like Michigan is in great position to land a commitment if (and likely when, considering the early interest from both parties) they extend an offer.

For this college football season I set out on a little project to determine what college football rankings would look like based solely on how teams performed on the field. I admit there are inherent weaknesses in this model as I have to use someone else's rankings which are not completely based on on-field results.

However here is the gist of my model: teams get awarded points for a victory, with more points being awarded for beating a higher ranked team. Rankings were from Sagarin as his were the only rankings I could find that went past the top 25 teams. Points were also given/taken away based on the point differential up to a cap of 21 points. I decided that wins/losses of 21+ were all the same, but I am considering increasing the cap. Additional points were given for away wins and taken away for home losses.

Keep in mind that I am still tinkering with the model and it is far from complete. The usual caveat of small sample sizes applies. Here is the top 15 as my model stands now:

That's right, Sacramento State is the fifth best team in the country after beating Oregon State week one. The top three isn't much of a surprise and the rest of the list seems to make sense. For the record Michigan was one of a group of teams that had slightly fewer points than Mississippi State.

I plan to continue updating this model throughout the season so any and all feedback would be appreciated. I'm also considering applying this to college basketball, I think it may even be more relevant for that.

In case anybody's wondering, I'm Chris of Dangerous Logic here, but parkinggod pretty much everywhere else on the web, including YouTube.

(apologies to those who are familiar with MPP from last year; this is for the new folks)

  I love Picture Pages, but I'm so obtuse that I usually have to replay the video as I'm reading in order to understand what's happening.  Finally it dawned on me that I have the game footage, a video editor, and a little bit of free time, so (with Brian's permission) I have annotated the play with pauses, spot-shadowing, and other kindergarden video effects to make it easier to follow.  I notice that Brian has also started including an annotated version at the end of his regular picture pages posts (in this case, http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-how-not-defend-power-part-i), but he points out different things there so I think this is still useful.

Setup: It's second and two on the Michigan 47 on Western's second drive of the day.  Western runs a counter out of the shotgun against Michigan's 3-4 front with corners pressing and only Kovacs deep.

Wha'hoppon: The LT ignores Brennen Beyer to double RVB. Beyer crashes into the backfield only to get hit by a pulling guard as the RB runs by him on the counter.  Demens steps up into the hole but loses outside contain, and the RB cuts outside and may well have had a TD if Kovacs doesn't make a tackle 25 yards downfield.

It was a cold winter. Not just because the mercury in my thermometer froze, but because I felt Jack Frost nipping my aorta. The 2010 season ending in disaster sent me into seclusion in an undisclosed location. For what it’s worth, Dick Cheney is a horrible bunk mate and cheats like hell at Risk. I was lost for months being dissatisfied with the Gator Bowl Massacre, the ensuing drama of Rich Rodriguez firing, and HOKE being hired in his stead. My theory was that if you are going to fire a coach, make sure the next guy is better. HOKE to me at the time fell way below this standard. I thought he’d make a good run at the WWE giving the people’s pointer, but not for head ball coach at the University of Michigan. I dropped away from MGoBlog for the winter/spring/and most of the summer. Although I had many items on my plate such as world domination, running up my phone bill on a suicide hotline, and practicing the French Horn in my hang out to piss off Cheney.

After leaving my bunker and pleasantly surprise that the nuclear radiation was fairly low, I began thawing my icy demeanor to prepare for the upcoming season. I began surfing through the posts of MGoBlog for motivation. Even though the quality of the posts was high, I needed something more. I loaded the canoe, grabbed my closest confidant, dipped into my suitcase of goodies and took to Bearwallow Pond. Bearwallow Pond is home to the most fierce man eating chain pickerel known to man. As I came to peace with myself battling the forces of evil and experiencing a full blown visionquest that would make Jack Kerouac blush, I realized that I must buy into MANBAWW FOOTBAWW or never be a Michigan fan once again. I chose the former because not being a Michigan football fan is forfeiting your soul. If I wasn’t a Michigan football fan, I would be destined to hang out in Columbus being a Blue Hornet’s groupie and bestowing myself a wife that I will only meet in the realm of World of Warcraft named Grundela.

September 3^rd, 2011. The long cold offseason is over. I finally get to see the maize and blue streak out onto the feet. Unfortunately, I could not see them due to the heavy haze that settled into Midwest that threatened to pose serious health problems to Gorgeous Borges. It was hotter than a pair of monkey balls in July. The on the field reporter had a gadget that looked similar to a speedometer. She claimed it was to read the temperature on the ground. I then became convinced that it was a speedometer when it read 131. That was definitely Denard just walking by.

The first quarter drive by Western Michigan brought back flashes of beavers, atomic bombs, sad kittens, and death. I witnessed a MAC team slice through the Michigan defense like I had many times before. This time was different though. I did not have razor blades and salt readied for added pain because I held out hope err…HOKE. Thankfully the touchdown by Michigan at the beginning of the second brought me back from the edge.

At the beginning of the second quarter I also noticed that Carder was having difficulties with audibles. I have not attended a game since the finalization of the renovations (soon to change). I was pleasantly surprised that opposing teams may now have to worry about hearing the correct calls before snapping the ball. Lay the largest library bullshit to rest.

Western Michigan again began exacting a slow painful mauling of a defense again in the middle of second quarter. It looked as if the defense once again was helpless as earthworms after a rainstorm before the turning point of the game came in the form of a 94 yard interception return for a TD by Brandon Herron. After I completed a whole rearrangement of my house in a reenactment of the Herron return, much to my roommates chagrin, I had a different feeling in the pit of my large intestine. Something broke in favor of the Wolverines at a time when it was desperately needed. It was a fix that was finally met after a three year withdrawal that put most Wolverine fans in Nirvana.

After the turning point in the game, WMU began to cave. I find myself more empathetic for self destructing behaviors after witnessing a horror show full of them these past three years. This may explain my deep connection to self mutilators, Jersey Shore fans, and ohio citizens.

Gibbons is an animal. Not in the way that separates someone for exceptional accolades, but an animal in that he has instincts for inclement weather. After Michigan’s third TD, Gibbons sensed the Monsoonpocalypse barreling down the I-96 corridor.  He missed an extra point. We should have respected his all powerful warning because the series of storms that followed wreaked havoc on the stairs and fabrics that occupied the Big House.

After one restart and another delay, Brandon showed the WMU athletic director his pimp hand and the game was finished. Although the game was a washout win, many fans in and out of the rainpocalypse felt refreshed. There was a new buzz in the air. A buzz filled with HOKE. The defense became aggressive unlike ever before in the A.C. era. (After Carr). Kovacs proved that his blood lust was not a fluke as he single handily made Carder crawl into a fetal position headless, The kicking game was ok?, no beavers were spotted or harmed in the game, and no one feared a Josh Groban rendition. Rainbows, happiness, and FOOTBAWWW had returned to Michigan, or did it?

I can speak for myself and I am sure many others are in agreement when through all the celebrating in the American traditional way of killing brain cells with multiple substances at a single time, there lingered a itching worry that this may be the same feeling of after the UConn 2010 win. Notre Dame will be the next test. They have plenty of talent but a habit of Plaxico Burressing themselves in the foot. The defense will surely get a test and save any other bat shit crazy act from mother nature, this will be the first full game of the season. Which means the first fourth quarter of the season. If Gibbons starts missing extra points, head for the hills. If Brian Kelly has an aneurism and collapses on his face, stick around.

We shall be one step closer to finding out if we have caught some wind in our sails to the promised land, or if we will continue to wallow in our own poop deck.

-Go Blue

P.S. Due to insane first week of work, pictures and videos have been excluded. Please don’t hold it against me. I'll find you.

Revision: I WILL be including the WMU TO stats in all future posts. I realized that excluding a single game will significantly distort all the data. So, my data will reflect U-M with +3 TOM better than the NCAA data. I am right -- they are wrong!

We Don't Exist!: This will be an abbreviated post since all the stats from the WMU game are not included in the NCAA data. I don't feel like fighting this battle for the entire year or trying to adjust data by some factor every week. All data will be the official NCAA statistics from the NCAA site. Thus, unless the NCAA includes the WMU statistics (which is doubtful), this is the one and only time the data will be included.

Early Season Statistics: In 2009 & 2010 M had a positive TOM thru the first 6 games. At the end of the season? 2009 TOM was MINUS 12. 2010 TOM was MINUS 10. It is unlikely we will know a lot about this team until at least the seventh game at MSU.

Synopsis for Turnovers: The game ended with a TOM of +3. However, the first 2 TOs were very unusual because they both resulted in defensive touchdowns. Arguably, this was a point swing of at least 14 points and as many as 25 points.

With the average TO being "worth" approximately 5 points, a simplistic analysis would conclude TOs were not a major factor in determining the winning team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Without the TOs, I am convinced M would have lost this game.