Low pressure system and it's accompanying cold front are shifting East of Lake Huron, taking the steady rain with it. On the backside of the low, we'll see breezy conditions and *maybe a spotty shower*-although most will stay dry and if you do get wet, it won't last long. Chilly today with temps below normal, and some decent cloud cover. Grab the sweatshirt, it feels like fall football!
Steady rains ending early on, but don't expect it to warm up a whole lot. Slowly rising into the mid 60s throughout the morning and into lunchtime, and more and more of the sun peeking out-should be mostly sunny towards mid-morning. Tie down those tents-winds are out of the NW at a steady 15-18mph (loose papers blow about), with gusts up into the mid and upper 20s (small trees sway, lighter garbage cans tip over).
Finally hitting that 70 degree mark for 3:30! Some clouds will hang out for the start of the game, but overall should be fair skies. Keeping a chilly NW wind at 17mph, and gusts are still possible up around 25mph.
Don't expect a whole lot to change as we end the first half. Some of the cloud cover will have gone down, and we'll hang on near 70 degrees, but the wind's still blowing! Still steady 17/18mph with gusts up to 25mph. As we head towards the end of the game, the winds will slowly start to go down more.
By game's end, looking at 68 degrees with NW winds at 15mph-gusts up to 22mph (so you'll still see leaves and small twigs blowing around, some decent size branches moving) and partly cloudy skies. Winds will gradually die down-getting rid of the gusts while you're eating dinner, and down to 10mph (leaves and papers blow about) out of the WNW by 9pm. A slight chance of rain lingers throughout the overnight (and your Sunday), but just like during the day most will stay dry, and rain won't last long. If you are headed out to celebrate the win, don't leave your sweatshirt on the barstool at closing time because although westerly winds will be light, temperatures will be down at 54 degrees! Go Blue!
Christina Burkhart is a meteorologist for NBC/ABC in Traverse City, MI, and temporarily for NBC25 in Flint/Saginaw, MI. She grew up in Ann Arbor and associates Saturdays with Michigan football. Go Blue!!
many is the number of people who live in the past. these people still debate and try to decipher the game against Alabama
most people wonder what would have happened if Michigan had retained Rich Rod as the OC. They also believe that with the personnel Michigan currently has, RR's offense would have lit up Alabama this year and Mattison's defense would not have had to work so hard - resulting in a Michigan win
that may be true, but THE KNOWLEDGE does not live in the past
THE KNOWLEDGE lives in the future
as mentioned in the previous post, people should quit worrying and look forward to seeing Michigan go 12-1 the rest of the year
the first part of that starts with wins over Air Force and Mass
THE KNOWLEDGE CHALLENGE makes its 2012 debut on these very pages now in a special manner
in this edition of THE CHALLENGE, you are required to predict the scores of both the AF and Mass games. there will be 3 POTW (Protege Of THE KNOWLEDGE) award winners at the end of the two games:
1. For the AF game
2. For the Mass game
3. For the cobined best predictor
ideally the POTW will predict both scores correctly and hence win the third automatically, but that, of course, will not happen
as usual THE KNOWLEDGE shall now provide pointers to the games to make the score prediction:
- Michigan will win both games as noted above
- Neither game will be close
- Michigan will run and pass at will
- The defense may appear to struggle but will not in reality
as usual, THE KNOWLEDGE shall soar and bask in glory
as will the POTW awardees
info on Air Force was a little tough to find, no actual depth charts and you will notice that some players don't have numbers yet. i just didn't take the time to track that down.
michigan's depth chart is unchanged from last week, although i know there was some talk of some shifting. if anyone thinks there is a major change to be reflected here, let me know and i can do that.
Over the course of the season there are three key factors that drive the success or failure of a football team:
On a game by game basis you can throw in variance/strategy/luck. It’s pretty tough for a high variance strategy to pay out over the long term but for a particular game playing high variance could be the right decision. Teams like Boise State have found success mostly on execution. Oregon and other non-traditional powers have used offensive systems to drive success. The ones who have done it with talent are easy to spot because that’s where the big-time programs all start.
It would have been unrealistic for Michigan to expect Saturday to be a victory on execution over a Nick Saban coached team. Al Borges was apparently comfortable not pushing any system/variance strategies with his choice of play calling (unless you consider the deep balls his way of playing high variance). That left the major gap between Michigan and Alabama to come down to talent. Michigan and Alabama both have storied histories and bright futures for their football teams, but their current rosters are at very different points.
Here is a look at how Michigan’s roster stacks up to the Big Ten and its non-conference opponents. Methodology here
|Penn St||2,267||Air Force||126|
Michigan certainly has an enviable roster for most of the country, but attrition and recruiting gaps have left the upper-classes of the roster well below the nation’s elite programs. In fact, the gap between Michigan and Alabama is essentially the same as between Michigan and Minnesota. With Michigan not willing (system/variance) or able (execution) to push the other levers, the talent lever came through in full force.
The good news is that there isn’t a team left on the schedule that can do that to Michigan on talent alone. Holding serve on talent puts Michigan at 9-3 and Legends division champs and potentially favored in the B1G Title Game. The talent gap can give and it can take away. Obviously talent is never a guarantee (ask Texas) but with good coaching, Michigan’s talent should put them in a position to be a competitive or win every game remaining on the schedule. The defense seems positioned to possibly pick up some advantage from coaching, and until the full tenants of the passing attack are in place, the offense will likely be middle of the course to slightly above, depending on how the Denard is deployed.
Barring major attrition issues, Michigan will start to move up the talent list over the next several years. I project them to reach current Ohio/ND range in time for the 2014 and potentially hitting the upper echelons when the current freshman enter their senior season. Until that happens, Michigan will either need to be content to see results like they did on Saturday or find different ways to gain advantages over the next two seasons.
Game scores (1st half only)
Denard Robinson: 18 plays, -1.2 EV (points added), -8% WPA (win pct added)
Thomas Rawls: 4 plays, -0.3, -1%
Vincent Smith: 9 plays, -2.0, -1.5%
AJ McCarron: 16 plays, +6.7, +12%
Eddie Lacy: 8 plays, +3.4, +4%
TJ Yeldon: 5 plays, +4.4, +7%
Air Force isn’t charted from its week 1 win against an FCS team, but it plenty efficient, scoring TD’s on 4 of 6 first half drives, with one killed by a 15 yard penalty. The defense pitched a first half shutout but did allow 3 of 5 drives into Falcon territory. My preseason rankings installed Michigan as a nearly three touchdown favorite and I have no reason to think expectations have changed substantially.
Michigan 31 Air Force 10, 98% chance of victory
Ok, so it's another week and another opponent. That means more wallpaper. I will be on vacation during UMass week, so I did the wallpaper early. Honestly, I couldn't get into the Air Force wallpaper as whole-heartedly as I'd have liked, so I apologize for the drop-off in quality on that one. It's still not THAT BAD, but not on the level I've been producing. Sorry.
The UMass wallpaper, on the other hand, I really like it. There may be people out there who have never seen an ad for the new Assassin's Creed or know that it takes place in the Revolutionary War (loose tie to Minutemen). So there you have it, that's your background on my theft/conversion of AC's main character into Denard. Anyway, I'm starting to ramble. I hope you enjoy the wallpapers and get some use from them in the weeks to come.
As always, thanks for your support and I welcome constructive criticism and/or new ideas you'd like to see.
Not a lot of personal input into this diary, but with Brian's front Picture Pages asking who the option read was there has been some confusion of which play is what. It's impossible to know what the play call is on any given down, and Bama did blow up just about everything, but I thought I'd post some diagrams showing what various teams do. Please chime in as well with different names for plays, as different coaches call the same play by different names.
All kinds of information (these pictures) can be found here: http://smartfootball.com/tag/option
Play 1: Zone Read (Read Option)
The offensive line zone blocks and leaves one defensive end (circled) unblocked. The QB then looks to see what this end does. The end picks one player and the QB's job is to make sure the other player has the ball.
There are variations on this (bubble screens etc) that are very nuanced and again, Chris Brown goes over them here http://smartfootball.com/run-game/the-zone-read-gun-triple-option-and-the-quadruple-option
Play 2: DT Read Option (Midline Option)
Very similar play, but here a DT is left unblocked. Lots of teams do this against stud DTs (Oregon optioned off Glenn Dorsey some)
Play 3 - Inverted Veer
The big differences here are that you now have a pulling guard and you leave someone unblocked playside. http://smartfootball.com/run-game/what-is-the-inverted-veer-dash-read
Michigan used this play to dismantle OSU last year as Brian pointed out here: http://mgoblog.com/content/picture-pages-inverted-veer-ftw
Typically your pulling guard and playside tackle would both serve as lead blockers on the 2nd level, but as noted elsewhere Borges and Hoke don't like leaving linemen unblocked. What worked against OSU was the LBs getting caught in the wash and Denard being awesome. I can't find an exact diagram of how we draw it up, but they still option off a DL, then get blocks elsewhere.
So how did Bama blow this up completely? Do we need to worry about teams doing this in the future? By being way more talented and maybe. What Bama did was "absorb" blockers and control them. Hopkins can't block #1, who forces a give. Omameh and Schofield are stuck double teaming DTs and can't get to the next level. Barnum is beat to the hole. If this was a true read play (I dont' know, and as mentioned, the coached don't like unblocked DLs) Hopkins should be on the 2nd level as well.
Do we need to worry about other teams doing this? Maybe, but I don't know who else will have the talent to. If a DL tries to pick off the lead blocker AND force a give, AND 2 DL force double teams so that our OL can't get to the 2nd level AND their LBs beat our pulling guard to the hole... then yes, we're in trouble. I don't think the talent disparity will be as big in future games. If it is, our option game will get blown up.